2019/2/25 Textbook Macroeconomics Macroeconomics (9th Edition) Introduction The science of Macroeconomics by N. Gregory Mankiw Worth Publishers, 2016 (ISBN-978-1-4641-8289-1) CHAPTER 1 Course Arrangement About 16 weeks in this semester Classical theory: The Economy in the Long run Growth Theory: The Economy in Very Long Run Business Cycle Theory: The Economy in the Short Run Macroeconomic Policy Debates CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics Exercises and marks CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics Home work: Quizzes and attendance Mid test: Final exam: CHAPTER 1 15% 15% 30% 40% The Science of Macroeconomics IN THIS CHAPTER, YOU WILL LEARN: Instructor: Zhang Deyuan Business School, SHUFE Phone: 65907563 Email: zhangdy@mail.shufe.edu.cn TA: Lili(李立) Phone: 13127692317 Email: lili17hao@sina.com Home work each week, hand in at next lecture. Marks include: Contact with us The Science of Macroeconomics about the issues macroeconomists study about the tools macroeconomists use some important concepts in macroeconomic analysis 5 1 2019/2/25 Important issues in macroeconomics Important issues in macroeconomics Macroeconomics, the study of the economy as a whole, addresses many topical issues, e.g.: Macroeconomics, the study of the economy as a whole, addresses many topical issues, e.g.: What causes recessions? What is “government stimulus” and why might it help? How can problems in the housing market spread to the rest of the economy? What is the government budget deficit? How does it affect workers, consumers, businesses, and taxpayers? CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics Why does the cost of living keep rising? Why are so many countries poor? What policies might help them grow out of poverty? What is the trade deficit? How does it affect the country’s well-being? The Science of Macroeconomics CHAPTER 1 U.S. Inflation Rate U.S. Real GDP per capita (2005 dollars) (% per year) $50,000 25 9/11/2001 0 -5 U.S. Unemployment Rate World War I 15 Second oil price shock Great First Depression oil price shock 20 Financial crisis World War II 5 2010 1990 irrelevant details are stripped away …are used to Oil price shocks 10 1980 …are simplified versions of a more complex reality 30 World War I 1970 Economic models (% of labor force) 25 1960 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 -15 1920 World War II $0 Financial crisis Great Depression -10 2000 Second oil price shock $10,000 1900 5 1910 World War I 10 1900 $20,000 Financial crisis Second oil price shock First oil price shock 15 First oil price shock Great Depression $30,000 World War I 20 $40,000 1950 1940 1930 Financial crisis Great Depression show relationships between variables explain the economy’s behavior devise policies to improve economic performance 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 0 CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics 2 2019/2/25 Example of a model: Supply & demand for new cars shows how various events affect price and quantity of cars assumes the market is competitive: each buyer and seller is too small to affect the market price Variables The demand for cars demand equation: Q d = D (P,Y ) shows that the quantity of cars consumers demand is related to the price of cars and aggregate income Qd = quantity of cars that buyers demand Qs = quantity that producers supply P = price of new cars Y = aggregate income Ps = price of steel (an input) CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics CHAPTER 1 Digression: functional notation General functional notation shows only that the variables are related. The Science of Macroeconomics The market for cars: Demand demand equation: Q d = D (P,Y ) P Price of cars Q d = D (P,Y ) The demand curve shows the relationship between quantity demanded and price, other things equal. A specific functional form shows A list of the the precise quantitative relationship. variables Example: that affect Q d D (P,Y ) = 60 – 10P + 2Y CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics CHAPTER 1 The market for cars: Supply supply equation: Q s = S (P,PS ) The supply curve shows the relationship between quantity supplied and price, other things equal. CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics Q Quantity of cars The Science of Macroeconomics The market for cars: Equilibrium P Price of cars D P Price of cars S S equilibrium price D D Q Q Quantity of cars equilibrium quantity CHAPTER 1 Quantity of cars The Science of Macroeconomics 3 2019/2/25 The effects of an increase in income demand equation: Q d = D (P,Y ) supply equation: P Price of cars An increase in income increases the quantity of cars consumers demand at each price… Q s = S (P,PS ) S P2 P1 …which increases the equilibrium price and quantity. D2 D1 Q1 Q2 Q Quantity of cars The Science of Macroeconomics CHAPTER 1 Endogenous vs. exogenous variables The effects of a steel price increase P S2 Price of cars An increase in Ps reduces the quantity of cars producers supply at each price… S1 P2 P1 …which increases the market price and reduces the quantity. D Q2 Q1 Q Quantity of cars The Science of Macroeconomics CHAPTER 1 NOW YOU TRY Supply and Demand The values of endogenous variables are determined in the model. 1. Write down demand and supply equations for The values of exogenous variables are determined outside the model: the model takes their values and behavior as given. 2. Draw a supply-demand graph for smartphones. In the model of supply & demand for cars, endogenous: exogenous: smartphones; include two exogenous variables in each equation. 3. Use your graph to show how a change in one of your exogenous variables affects the model’s endogenous variables. P , Q d, Q s Y , Ps The Science of Macroeconomics CHAPTER 1 21 The use of multiple models No one model can address all the issues we care about. E.g., our supply-demand model of the car market… can tell us how a fall in aggregate income affects price & quantity of cars. The use of multiple models So we will learn different models for studying different issues (e.g., unemployment, inflation, long-run growth). For each new model, you should keep track of cannot tell us why aggregate income falls. CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics CHAPTER 1 its assumptions which variables are endogenous, which are exogenous the questions it can help us understand, those it cannot The Science of Macroeconomics 4 2019/2/25 Prices: flexible vs. sticky Prices: flexible vs. sticky Market clearing: An assumption that prices are flexible, adjust to equate supply and demand. In the short run, many prices are sticky – adjust sluggishly in response to changes in supply or demand. For example: The Science of Macroeconomics unemployment (excess supply of labor) why firms cannot always sell all the goods they produce If prices flexible (long run), markets clear and economy behaves very differently CHAPTER 1 The Science of Macroeconomics CHAPTER SUMMARY CHAPTER SUMMARY If prices sticky (short run), demand may not equal supply, which explains: many labor contracts fix the nominal wage for a year or longer many magazine publishers change prices only once every 3 to 4 years CHAPTER 1 The economy’s behavior depends partly on whether prices are sticky or flexible: Economists use different models to examine Macroeconomics is the study of the economy as a whole, including growth in incomes changes in the overall level of prices the unemployment rate Macroeconomists attempt to explain the economy and to devise policies to improve its performance. different issues. Models with flexible prices describe the economy in the long run; models with sticky prices describe the economy in the short run. Macroeconomic events and performance arise from many microeconomic transactions, so macroeconomics uses many of the tools of microeconomics. 26 27 5