Evaluating Regional Land Use Cover Trend with Biophysical Settings: A Remote Sensing and GIS integrated Approach R. N. Sahoo a ,K. Suzanchi b, S. Pandey c , S. Arekhi d, R.K. Tomar a, P.Chandna c a Division of, Agricultural Physics Division of Environmental Sciences, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi (IARI), 110012, India, C Rice-Wheat Consortium for Indo-Gangetic Plains, CIMMYT, New Delhi, 110012, India, d Collage of Agriculture, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran b INTRODUCTION • The Indo-Gangetic Plain is a rich, fertile and ancient land encompassing most of Northern and Eastern India where, land use particularly agriculture has undergone dramatic changes in the last four decades. Of late evidence is accumulating to suggest that high productivity and growth rates achieved during the Green Revolution era are no longer being sustained to meet the needs of still increasing population in the region. • There has been effort to search for unattended regions to scale up the agricultural productivity to meet these needs. Keeping this in view, an attempt was made to undertake land use land cover change analysis over two decade and evaluate different land use particularly agriculture and its change with respect to its spatially varying biophysical parameters such as topography, land form, soil, weather, water resources of the regions. Objectives • To undertake land cover change analysis over two decades and evaluate different land use particularly agriculture and its change with respect to its spatially varying biophysical parameters such as topography, land form, soil, weather, water resources of the regions. • This would form a frame work to predict possible land use type or change in land use based on single or composite effect of these biophysical parameters at regional scale. Study Area Indo-Gangetic Plain Indian States Spot vegetation 21th February 2005 (R:MIR, G: NDVI, B:B0) Study Area Indo-Gangetic Plain India States Spot vegetation 21th may 2005 (R:MIR, G: NDVI, B:B0) Material • Global land cover images: – 1 Kilometer Land Cover Map Derived From AVHRR Data (University of Maryland: The Global Land Cover Facility) – MODIS/Terra Land Cover Type Yearly L3 Global 1km SIN Grid (MOD12Q1) • Biophysical map of IGP: – – – – – DEM Data (GTOPO30 ) Soil Data (FAO) Agro Ecological zones (NBSS & LUP ) Irrigated Areas at Different Levels (IWMI) State and district maps • Statistical Data – Land use statistics (India Harvest, CMIE) Methodology • Land use/cover change analysis was done using multitemporal satellite data of 1km resolution available in public domain. • Spatially varying land forms and topography of the region were derived from DEM data of GTOPO30 available at 1km resolution. • Information on soil and water resources (i.e. irrigation area) were taken from available soil map of FAO and IWMI respectively. Flow diagram of methodology South Asia IWMI Map South Asia DEM FAO soil zone Agro ecological Zones Georeferencing Retrieval for IGP Retrieval for IGP Digitization Geo-coding Classified soil Type map Classified AESR zones Retrieval for IGP Classified elevation AVHHR land cover 1984 Modis land cover 2005 Geo-referencing and retrieval for IGP Resize and modification Extract class type 1 and merge to IGBP type Change analysis Map differencing Classification comparison Changes thresholds Table and Histogram Overlay analysis Finding zones and possible factor/s governing agricultural land cover change Change detection statistics Change type & direction One Kilometer Land Cover Map Derived From AVHRR Data (IGBP) Deriving a global land cover classification product. • • The product was derived by testing several metrics that describe the temporal dynamics of vegetation over an annual cycle. These metrics have the potential to be used as input variables to a global land cover classification. Tested metrics are based on : 1) 2) 3) 4) • the ratio between surface temperature and NDVI, seasonal metrics derived from the NDVI temporal profile such as length of growing season, a rule-based approach that determines cover type through a series of hierarchical trees based on surface temperature and NDVI values, and annual mean, maximum, minimum, and amplitude values for all optical and thermal channels in the AVHRR Pathfinder Land (PAL) data. These metrics were applied to 1984 PAL data to derive a global land cover classification product using a decision tree classifier (University of Maryland). AYHHR Land Cover Type (IGBP): Class Type 1 0 Water 1 Evergreen Needleleaf Forest 2 Evergreen Broadleaf Forest 3 Deciduous Needleleaf Forest 4 Deciduous Broadleaf Forest 5 Mixed Forest 6 Woodland 7 Wooded Grassland 8 Closed Shrubland 9 Open Shrubland 10 Grasslands 11 Croplands 12 Bare Ground 13 Urban and Built-Up MODIS/Terra Land Cover Type Yearly L3 Global 1km SIN Grid MOD12Q1 - Type 1(IGBP) • The MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land Cover Classification products contain 5 types classification schemes describing land cover properties such as Type 1 : IGBP (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme) global vegetation classification scheme Type 2: (UMD) University of Maryland modification of the IGBP scheme Type 3: MODIS LAI/fPAR Type 4: MODIS Net Primary Production Type 5: Plant Functional Types (PFT) (in consideration of the Community Land Model (CLM) used in climate modeling). These classes are distinguished with a supervised decision tree classification method. • The primary land cover scheme IGBP identifies 17 classes which includes - 11 natural vegetation classes 03 developed land classes permanent snow or ice, barren or sparsely vegetated water. The MOD12 classification schemes are multitemporal classes describing land cover properties as observed during the year (12 months of input data). MODIS (MODI12Q1) Land Cover Type: class IGBP (Type 1) UMD (Type 2) LAI/FPAR (Type 3) NPP (Type 4) PFT (Type 5) 0 Water water water water Water 1 evergreen needle leaf forest evergreen needle leaf forest grasses/cereal crops evergreen needle leaf vegetation Evergreen needle leaf trees 2 evergreen broadleaf forest evergreen broadleaf forest shrubs evergreen broadleaf vegetation Evergreen broadleaf trees 3 deciduous needle leaf forest deciduous needle leaf forest broadleaf crops deciduous needle leaf vegetation Deciduous need leleaf trees 4 deciduous broadleaf forest deciduous broadleaf forest savanna deciduous broadleaf vegetation Deciduous broadleaf trees 5 mixed forests mixed forests broadleaf forest annual broadleaf vegetation Shrub 6 closed shrub lands closed shrub lands Needle leaf forest annual grass vegetation Grass 7 open shrub lands open shrub lands unvegetated non-vegetated land Cereal crop 8 woody savannas woody savannas urban urban Broadleaf crop 9 savannas savannas Urban and built up 10 grasslands grasslands Snow and Ice 11 permanent wetlands 12 croplands croplands 13 urban and built-up urban and built-up 14 cropland/natural vegetation mosaic 15 permanent snow and ice 16 barren or sparsely vegetated Barren or sparse vegetation barren or sparsely vegetated Comparison of Land Cover Type of MODIS and AVHRR Class MODIS-IGBP (Type 1) AYHHR Land Cover Type Class 0 water water 0 1 evergreen needle leaf forest Evergreen Needle leaf Forest 1 2 evergreen broadleaf forest Evergreen Broad leaf Forest 2 3 deciduous needle leaf forest Deciduous Needle leaf Forest 3 4 deciduous broadleaf forest Deciduous Broad leaf Forest 4 5 mixed forests Mixed Forest 5 6 closed shrub lands Woodland 6 7 open shrub lands Wooded Grassland 7 8 woody savannas Closed Shrub land 8 9 savannas Open Shrub land 9 10 grasslands Grasslands 10 11 permanent wetlands Croplands 11 12 croplands Bare Ground 12 13 urban and built-up Urban and Built-Up 13 14 cropland/natural vegetation mosaic 15 permanent snow and ice 16 barren or sparsely vegetated Merging classes based on IGBP-DIS definition (Hansen et al, 2000) Land Cover Map of 1 km derived from AVHRR Data (IGBP) 1984 MODIS/Terra Land Cover Type Yearly L3 Global 1km SIN Grid MOD12Q1 Type 1(IGBP) 2005 W at er land cove r U rb an an d Ba re Bu il t - U p G ro un d C ro pl an d AVHHR 1984 G ra ss la nd W oo W dl oo an d de d G ra ss la C nd lo se d S hr ub la nd O pe n Sh ru bl an d N ee Ev dl e er le gr af ee n Br D oa ec d id le uo af us N ee D dl ec e id le uo af us Br oa d le af M ix ed Fo re st Ev er gr ee n Area '000 ha Comparison of Land Cover area Land cover Comparison MODIS 2005 50,000,000 45,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 Biophysical data Digital Elevation Model 1000 m 1m Biophysical data Elevation classes Biophysical data Soil Zone Biophysical data Irrigated Areas at Different Levels Biophysical data Agro Ecological Sub Region Biophysical data Agro Ecological Sub Region AGRO_ZONE AGRO_ECO_ZONE REGION 2.1 M9Eh1 Western Plains Hot arid 2.3 M9Et2 Western Plains Hot arid 4.1 N8Dd3 Northern plain and Central high lands 4.3 N8Dm4 Northern plain and Central high lands 4.4 16Dm4 Northern plain and Central high lands 9.1 N8Dm(cd)4 Northern, plain hot subhumid (dry) 9.2 N8Cd5 Northern, plain hot subhumid (dry) 10.3 16Cd5 Central high lands(malwa,bundelkhand,eastern satpura,hot subhumid(dry 11.0 J3Cd(cm)5 12.3 J2cd5 13.1 O8Cd(cm)6 Eastern plain,hot subhumid (moist) 13.2 B10Cm6 Eastern plain,hot subhumid (moist) 14.2 A15Cd(cm)6 Western Himalayas,warm,moist semiarid to dry sub humid 14.5 A10B(A)9 Western Himalayas,warm,moist semiarid to dry sub humid 15.1 O8Cm7 Bengal and Assam Plain,hot subhumid(moist) to humid 15.3 Q8A9 Bengal and Assam Plain,hot subhumid(moist) to humid 16.2 C11A10 Eastern Himalayas,warm perhumid 18.5 S7Cm7 Gangetic Delta, hot, moist-subhumid sloping chattisgarh/Mahanadi Basin, hot,moist-subhumid Chhotanagar Plateau and Garhjat Hills,hot,dry and moist,subhumid tran Biophysical data Topography Soil Map Different Irrigated Areas Agro ecological Sub Region Change Detection Analysis Map difference • Difference map of two classified images was prepared with thresholds -0.5 to +0.5 having five classes. • This map show the extend of change that happened in all classes of land cover • Four classes of change include change[+] and no change[-] as shown in next slide. Map difference Change Detection Statistics • While generating image having change detection statistics, we compared two classified image class by class • Related to two classified Images, any of produced band shows exact how any land use type in first image changed to other land use in last one. • This method shows the direction of change exactly and it is useful for understanding the land use dynamics and possible driving forces acting upon it. Change Detection Statistics Change in Grassland area to other classes (cropland and urban) Change Detection Statistics Change in Woody Grassland area to other classes ( Cropland ) Change Detection Statistics Change in Woodland area to other classes ( cropland and mixed forest ) Change Detection Statistics Change in Open shrubland area to other classes( cropland and urban) Change Detection Statistics Change in Closed shrubland area to other classes (cropland and urban) Change Detection Statistics Change in Cropland area to other classes (Urban Areas) Change Detection Matrix Class Total Row Total Urban and Built-up Bare Ground Cropland Grassland Woodland Wooded Grassland Open Shrubland Closed Shrubland Mixed Forest Deciduous Broadleaf Forest Deciduous Needleleaf Forest Evergreen Broadleaf Foreset Water 2005 Evergreen Needleleaf Forest 1984 Unclassified 3.343 3.517 3.875 0 4.358 3.271 0.567 0.635 0.928 1.464 0.683 0.383 6.25 0.057 0.233 100 Water 42.21 0.306 0.165 0 0.459 0 1.299 3.583 1.02 0.452 4.094 0.636 37.5 1.71 96.869 100 Evergreen Neadleleaf Forest 0.173 20.948 2.391 0 6.651 17.29 0.023 0.04 0.034 0.257 0.07 0.005 6.25 0.2 95.626 100 Evergreen Braodleaf Forest 0.207 20.183 36.109 0 26.491 36.449 0.041 0 0.4 6.298 0.098 0.038 0 0 98.936 100 0.007 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006 0.001 0 0 100 100 Deciduous Broadleaf Forest 0.055 7.187 6.513 0 5.275 6.075 0.007 0 0.067 0.601 0.015 0.019 0 0 98.312 100 Mixed Forest 0.552 20.795 17.89 0 13.532 13.551 0.1 0 0.718 15.144 0.249 0.079 0 0.542 98.457 100 Closed Shrubland 0.463 0.765 0.824 0 0.573 0.935 0.079 0.06 0.086 0.139 0.19 0.04 0 0.171 98.829 100 Open Shrubland 2.548 0.306 0.577 0 0.688 0 0.921 6.537 0.299 0.241 0.858 0.151 25 0.342 96.991 100 Woody grasslan 0.242 20.489 22.836 0 20.528 18.692 0.691 0.147 3.387 8.692 0.597 0.45 0 1.34 97.753 100 woodland 0.331 1.682 2.226 0 2.179 1.402 0.138 0.114 0.409 0.745 0.212 0.095 0 0.228 97.702 100 Grassland 0.207 1.529 2.143 0 1.261 0.935 0.038 0.06 0.256 0.611 0.118 0.068 0 0.057 98.833 100 cropland 45.2 2.294 4.369 0 18.005 1.402 92.617 83.818 91.258 64.43 89.633 96.692 12.5 36.517 99.453 100 Urban and Built-Up 2.355 0 0.082 0 0 0 3.226 3.823 0.904 0.627 2.461 1.267 12.5 58.637 99.899 100 Bare Ground 2.106 0 0 0 0 0 0.253 1.183 0.234 0.298 0.715 0.075 0 0.2 97.412 100 100 100 100 0 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 0 57.79 79.052 63.891 0 94.725 86.449 99.921 93.463 96.613 99.255 99.882 3.308 100 41.363 0 0 5.449 -23.089 132.481 0 -45.642 2200.935 -99.018 -74.901 -91.38 -93.07 -99.088 70.394 11975 268.016 0 0 Deciduous Needleleaf Forest Class Total Class Changes Image Difference Discussion: Difference Map with biophysical settings Irrigation Area Difference map Agro ecological Sub Region Topography Soil Map Discussion: Comparison of Changed areas with topography Woody Grassland Change Grassland Change Close shrubland Change Discussion: Comparison of Changed areas with soil types Woody Grassland Change Grassland Change Close shrubland Change Discussion: Woody Grassland Change Comparison of Changed areas with different irrigated areas Grassland Change Close shrubland Change Discussion: Comparison of Changed areas with Agro Ecological Sub Regions Woody Grassland Change Grassland Change Close shrubland Change Conclusions • Land cover products at 1km resolution were found to be very useful for its monitoring at regional scale leading to identify hotspots and update land use cover statistics. • Major biophysical parameter/s of the region could be found correlated with land cover change hot spots. • Major land use classes have been changed to crop land to meet the demand of increasing population trend of the region. But, Qs is next what if the same trend continues ? k.suzanchi@gmail.com rnsahoo@iari.res.in