LOWSKILL 2NC
1.
On Case
a. More Immigration will cause a net reduction in wages
PREFER OUR EMPIRICAL DATA
Rubenstein ‘16
Internall y quoting Paul Samuelson — the first American to wi n a N obel Prize in ec onomics . Edwin S. Rubens tei n previ ousl y was an ec onomis t and Director of R esearc h at the H udson Ins titute, as well as an Ec onomics editor National Revi ew and a contributi ng editor at F orbes M agazi ne. Mr. Rubens tei n has a B.A. fr om J ohns H opkins and a graduate degree i n ec onomic s from C ol umbi a U ni versity. Hi s es says on public polic y have appeared i n T he Wall Street Journal, The N ew Yor k Ti mes , H ar var d Busi ness R eview, Investor’s Busi ne ss D ail y, N ews day, and N ati onal R evi ew. “T he Neg ati ve Economi c Impact of Immigration on American Wor kers” – M arch - #C utWithRJ - http://www.npg.org/wp-c ontent/uploads/2016/02/2016N egati veEconomicImpac tFor umPaper.pdf
“After
World War I, laws were passed severely limiting immigration.
By
keeping supply down, immigration policy tends to keep wages high .
an increase in supply will, tend to depress wage rates.”
the first
American to win a Nobel Prize in economics — gave the common sense answer
as immigration increases the supply of labor
the wage
paid to workers will fall.
Only a tric kle of i mmigrants has been admitted since then….
Let us underline this basic pri ncipl e:
limitati on in the suppl y of any grade of labor rel ati ve to all other producti ve factors c an be expected to rais e its wage r at e;
– Paul Samuels on, Ec onomics [1964] What happens when i mmigrati on increases the s uppl y of wor kers in a partic ular l abor mar ket? In his iconic textbook, Paul Samuels on —
other thi ngs bei ng equal,
implied by the
standard model of the labor mar ket. Samuels on wrote thes e words right before enac tment of the 1965 Immigration Act. T he i mpen di ng change may well have prompted hi m to make the point that i mmigration r estricti ons tended to “ keep wages high.” His book als o s tress ed the other i mplication:
a partic ular type of
(such as l ow-educ ated, uns killed wor kers),
thos e
b. Their evidence is based on MNC think-tank’ing, it’s
ideological and not evidence-driven
Ruark 14
– Eric R uar k, Director of R es earch at the Federati on for Immigrati on Res earch (FAIR), May 21, 2014, “The (Il)l ogic of Open Bord er Libertari ans” , May 21, 2014, https://www.fair us.org/issue/s oci etal-impact/illogic-open- bor der-libertarians KKC
Big-business interests have a large stake in the outcome of the debate over
immigration, and they have spent much money supporting libertarian “thinktanks”
this
is a way to provide ideological cover for multi-national
corporations who lobby for the passage of legislation that will undermine the
standing of American workers and force taxpayers to subsidize the costs of a
cheaper foreign labor force.
would allow corporations to further consolidate
their hold on the U.S. economy, while the middle class would lose more of its
economic and political power.
that es pous e an open-border polic y for the U nited States . By all appearanc es,
has ver y little to do with any princi pled c ommitment to libertarian princi ples , but
An open border, or at l east a more open border,
c. Their labor shortage arguments are lies used to justify
undermining domestic labor
Whitaker et al 17
(Bill, CBS c orres pondent, 3/19, "Ar e U.S. j obs vulnerabl e to wor kers with H-1B vis as ?" https ://www.cbsnews.c om/news/are- u-s-jobs- vul ner abl e-to-wor kers-with- h-1b- visas /)
more and more are taking advantage of
loopholes in the law to fire American workers and replace them with younger,
cheaper, temporary foreign workers
This legislation
has been hijacked, as the main highway to bring people from abroad and displace
Americans.
companies will do better
financially if they hire the foreign worker rather than the American.
the industry lobbied for it. It's
really a travesty that should never have been allowed to happen.
Protecti ng American j obs was a signature theme of President D onald Trump's "Make America Great Agai n" c ampaign. A freq uent target of candidate Trump was the H- 1B vis a pr ogram. The program, created more than 25 years ago, all ows Americ an compani es to fill gaps i n the wor kforce from overs eas with highl y s kill ed employees, who c an't be found in the U .S. Many business es us e the program as intended, but we disc over ed
with H-1B vis as. But before the American wor kers wal k out the door they often fac e the humiliating pros pect of having to trai n the people taki ng their jobs.
Las t October, R obert Harrison, a seni or telec om engi neer at the U ni versi ty of C alifornia San Francisc o M edical C enter, was c alled to a meeti ng at the uni versity with about 80 of his IT c o- wor kers. Bill Whitaker: What did they s ay to you? Robert H arrison: We are sorr y to i nfor m you that as of F eb. 28, you'll no longer have a job. W e'r e go ing to out sour ce your po sition to this company in India. Bill Whitaker: T o a c ompany i n
India. Robert H arrison: Yes, sir. H arrison was told he c ould stay on the j ob, g et pai d for four more months, and g et a bonus if he trai ned his r epl acement. R obert H arrison: And now I' m being told that I h-- not onl y gonna l ose my j ob, but als o have to tr ain thes e people to take my job. Bill Whitaker: Are you angr y? Robert H arrison: Piss ed. T hat exc eeds angry. I' m reall y not a vi olent g uy. I l ove peopl e. But I've envisioned myself jus t bac khandi ng the guy as he's sitti ng next to me, tr ying to l ear n what I know. And I was li ke, God, pleas e don't l et them s end anybody to sit next to me, to s hadow me. I don't want to do this. I reall y don't. H arrison and his c olleagues s taged a protest outside the M edic al C enter. His fell ow worker, senior s ystems administr ator Kurt Ho is losi ng his job too. He had jus t tr ained his replac ement fr om India. Kurt Ho: I thi nk, for onc e, we're g onna stand up as Americ ans and s ay enough is enough. We're not gonna take it anymor e. Sar a Blac kwell: Thank you for standi ng up for what you beli eve in. T heir rall y was organiz ed by this
woman: Florida attor ney Sara Bl ac kwell. Sar a Bl ac kwell: T his is about the c ompani es maki ng the decision that you are worthl ess to them. She repres ents hundreds of U. S. wor kers who were fired and replac ed by foreign wor kers with H- 1B visas. Sar a Blac kwell: When you tell s omeone their real r eas on for getting ri d of thes e jobs i s for c heap foreign labor th at s hould offend everyone. Bill Whitaker: T hey have to trai n the worker who's going to take their j ob? Sara Bl ac kwell : Right. T hey ar e tol d by their company: if you don't trai n this pers on in a way that we approve of them bei ng tr ained, then you don't g et your s ever ance. T he UCSF Medical Center is a highl y r egarded stat e-run i nstituti on. Admi nistrators say outsourcing the IT jobs could s ave $30 million taxpayer over the next fi ve years . T hat's a frac tion of the uni versity's $5.8 billion annual budget, but to R obert Harrison, it's his job. Robert H arrison: I c an't wr ap my mi nd ar ound tr aini ng somebody to take my posi tion. You know, it's my li velihood. How am I s uppos ed to feel ? Bill Whitaker: I' ve hear d
some wor kers s ay this is li ke digging your own grave. Is that what it feels li ke? Rober t Harris on: It feel s wors e than that. It feels li ke not onl y am I digging the grave, but I'm getting r eady to stab mys elf in the gut and fall into the gr ave. When the H-1B vis a was created in 1990, it was i ntended to help the U.S. attr act and hol d onto the best and brightes t foreign graduates – li ke engineers and sci entists – and pr ovide a pathway to citiz enshi p. At the ti me, members of C ongress promis ed U.S. wor kers woul d be pr otected. (On the fl oor of the Hous e i n 1990) Bruce Morrison:
protec ts Americ an jobs. For mer C ongres sman Bruc e M orrison, then C hairman of the Immigrati on Committee, author ed the bill. Bill Whi taker: You came up with this l egislati on. What do you thi nk of what it has bec ome? Bruc e M orrison: I'm outrag ed. Br uc e M orrison: T he H-1B
Business es i nsist the visas are absol utel y neces sar y to c ompete for the bes t global talent and that even more H- 1B wor kers are needed to fill j ob s hortages . N earl y ever y major high-tec h c ompany, i ncludi ng Appl e, Google, F acebook, has empl oyees here on H- 1B vi sas . M edi a c ompanies too, including C BS. Bill Whitaker: T he argument you hear from the high tech fir ms is that they c an' t find enough q ualifi ed Americ an wor kers. Bruc e M orrison: Well, there ar e a lot of q ualifi ed American wor kers , but the
Bill Whi taker: T he Americ an wor kers are j ust as s killed as you are? Per haps even mor e s kill ed? R ajesh: Yes . T hat's true --R ajes h wor ks at a major Wall Street bank on an H- 1B visa. T o protect his
job, and pers onal s afety, he as ked that we change his appear anc e and name. H e was placed at the bank by one of the growi ng nu mber of outs ourcing c ompanies . M ost of these gl obal s taffing firms ar e bas ed in Indi a, they' ve bec ome mul tibillion doll ar enterpris es suppl yi ng American c ompanies with H-1B wor kers , li ke Raj es h, to replac e Americ an wor kers. Raj esh s aid he was never tol d in Indi a he' d be taking Americ ans' jobs. R ajesh (Translator): I have to take all of their knowledge i n –basic all y I have to s teal it. T hat's my j ob description. Bill Whi taker: And the Americ an wor ker is l et g o? Raj esh (Translator): Yeah. The Americ an wor kers -- l ose their j ob and -- they also -- cry whil e l eavi ng the job. Bill Whi taker: T hey cr y? R ajesh (Translator): T hey' ve been wor king there for 20 years, and suddenl y I have taken their job. If I los e a job I can go bac k to Indi a. But where can they g o? Bill Whi taker: You mus t know that when most nati ve-born Americans s ee this g oing on, they blame you. R ajes h (Tr ansl ator): Yes , but I am not the enemy. T he mai n villai ns are
the Indi an c ompanies and their Americ an Cor porate cli ents. They ar e expl oiti ng us . Bill Whitaker : Why c an't we j ust s ay we'r e goi ng to gi ve jobs to Americans firs t? Bruce Morrison: Well, that's what the s tatute says, but -- Bill Whitaker: But? Br uce Morrison: They put i n a l oophol e. And the l oophol e s ays , "If ya pay over $60,000, ya c an do that." And besi des that, you don't have to tr y to fi nd Americans. Well, $60,000 is not high pay for this ki nd of wor k. People doi ng this wor k today easil y make $120,000- 140,000.nBill Whitaker: Who put in that loophole? Bruc e M orrison: Well, the-- it was done by C ongress. But obvi ousl y
[Lucia
d. There’s no labor shortage---recent economic data shows
increases in the labor force and that wage growth will
accelerate later this year
Mutikani, 7-7-2018
, Lucia is a mar ket and ec onomics r eporter for R euters "U .S. job growth undersc ores economy's str ength, tariffs a threat," U.S. , https://www.r euters.com/articl e/us-us a-economy/us-job-growth-s een-s trong-in-june- wag es-pic ki ng-up-idU SKBN1J W0EI]//Rank
The U.S. economy created more jobs than expected
payrolls rose
by 213,000
The economy added 37,000 more jobs in April and May than
previously reported
601,000 job seekers
entered the labor force in a sign of confidence in the labor market
, economists are confident that wage growth will
accelerate later this year
Wages could rise at a faster pace
in the future as the economy is humming and the labor market is tight
WASHIN GTON (Reuters) -
in June, but s teady wage g ains pointed to moder ate i nflation press ur es that s houl d keep the F eder al R eser ve on a path of gradual inter est rate i ncreas es this year. N onfarm
.
jobs last month as manufac tur ers stepped up hiring, the Labor D epartment s aid on Friday
. It needs to create about 120,000 jobs per month to keep up wi th growth in the wor ki ng -age population. “ Over all the repor t is good news ins ofar as it s uggests the ec onomy still has some c apaci ty to grow at an abo ve-tr end pace without generating muc h inflationar y pr ess ure,” sai d Mic hael F eroli, an ec onomist at JPM organ i n N ew Yor k. “Si milarl y, it s houl d eas e the c oncer ns of the hawks ( at the F ed) who worr y that the F ed’s rate hi ke c ampaign is behind the c ur ve.” T he report s howed str ength i n the economy befor e a tr ade war started between the United States and C hina, w hich anal ysts war ned c ould slow hiring, es peciall y i n the manufacturing s ector. The U.S. and C hina sl apped tit-for-tat duti es on $34 billion wor th of the other’s i mports on Fri day. Washi ngton is als o engaged i n fights with other
major tr ade partners, incl udi ng C anada, Mexic o and the European U nion after Presi dent Donald Tr ump i mpos ed tariffs on steel and alumi num i mpor ts. Tr ump argues that the duti es are n ec ess ar y to protec t domestic industries from what he s ays is unfair c ompeti tion fr om foreign manufac tur ers. R ELAT ED COVERAGE Instant Vi ew: U.S. J une payrolls g ain mor e than expected Instant Vi ew: U.S. J une payrolls gain mor e than expected Ec onomists have warned the tit-for-tat tariffs c oul d disrupt the suppl y c hai n, under mine busi ness i nvestment and rai se pr ices for c onsumers, and wipe out the s timulus fr om a $1.5 trillion tax c ut pac kage that came i nto effect in J anuar y. The unemployment r ate rose to 4.0 percent in June fr om an 18- year l ow of 3.8 perc ent i n M ay as
.
from 62.7 percent in M ay. It had decli ned for thr ee str aight months
.
That was the firs t incr ease in the j obl ess rate i n 10 months. The l abor forc e partici pation r ate, or the proporti on of wor king-age Americans who have a j ob or ar e looki ng for one, r ose to 62.9 percent las t month
Average hourl y earni ngs gai ned fi ve cents , or 0.2 percent in June after increasing 0.3 perc ent i n M ay. That kept the annual incr ease in average hourly earni ngs at 2.7 percent. But with a rec ord 6.7 million unfill ed j obs in April
.
June’s moderate wag e growth s houl d, for now, allay fears of the economy over heati ng. T he F ed’s pr eferr ed infl ati on meas ure hit the centr al bank’s 2 perc ent target in May for the first time i n si x years. Ec onomis ts expec t inflation will hover around i ts target bec ause of labor mar ket tightness
.“
,”
sai d Sung Won Sohn, c hi ef ec onomist at SS Ec onomics i n Los Angel es.
e. Collapse doesn’t cause war, prefer our empirical data to
their theoretical internal link story
Clary 15
Christopher Clar y, PhD i n politic al sci ence from MIT, MA i n national security affairs, pos tdoc tor al fellow, Watson Ins titute for Internati onal Studi es, Brown U ni versity, “Ec onomic Str ess and In ter national Cooper ati on: Evi denc e from Inter national Ri valries” , 4/25/15, http://posei don01.ssrn.com/deli ver y.php?ID=719105092024097121124100018083011118038069081083039091121092126090087109098 065027066123029119022059121027020065094083094082064017078060077029075100073095001126072113085042032004073009085104092002020027086072104017023079122098123108013079003000082124078&EXT=pdf, MIT political scienc e department
economic stress is associated with conciliatory policies between
strategic rivals.
Drawing on data from 109 distinct rival dyads since
1950,
rivalries were approximately twice as likely to terminate during
economic downturns
This is true controlling for all of the main alternative
explanations
Do economic downturns gener ate press ure for di versionar y c onflict? Or might downturns enc ourage austerity and ec onomizi ng behavi or in foreign polic y? T his paper pr ovides new evidence that
For states that vi ew each other as militar y threats, the bigges t step pos sible toward bil ateral c ooperation is to termi nate the ri valr y by taki ng politic al s teps to manag e the c ompetiti on.
67 of whic h ter minated, the evi dence sugges ts
than they were during periods of ec onomic nor malc y.
for peac eful rel ations between foes ( democr atic s tatus , nuclear weapons poss ession, c apability i mbalanc e, c ommon enemi es, and inter national s ystemic chang es), as well as many other possibl e c onfoundi ng variabl es. Thi s res earch questions exis ting theor i es cl ai ming that ec onomic downturns are ass oci ated wi th di versionar y war, and i nstead argues that i n c ertain circumstanc es peac e may result fr om economic troubles . I defi ne a rivalr y as the perc eption by nati onal elites of two states that the other state poss ess es conflicti ng inter ests and pr es ents a military threat of suffici ent s everity that future militar y conflict is li kel y. Ri valr y ter minati on i s the transiti on fr om a state of rivalr y to one where conflic ts of i nteres t are not vi ewed as being s o severe as to provoke i nters tate conflic t and/or wher e a mutual r ecog nition of the i mbal ance in militar y c apabilities makes conflic t-causing
bargai ning fail ures unli kel y. In other words, ri valries ter minate when the elites ass ess that the ris ks of militar y c onflict between ri vals has been reduc ed dramatic ally. T his definiti on dr aws on a growing q uantitati ve literatur e most clos el y ass ociated wi th the r es earc h programs of William T homps on, J . J os eph H ewitt, and J ames P. Klei n, Gar y Goertz, and Paul F. Di ehl.1 M y definiti on c onfor ms to that of William T homps on. In wor k with Karen R asl er, they define ri valri es as situati ons in whic h “[b]oth actors vi ew eac h other as a signific ant politic al militar y threat and, ther efore, an enemy.”2 In other wor k, T homps on writing wi th Mic hael Col aresi, expl ains further: T he pres umption is that decisi onmakers explicitl y identify who they thi nk are their foreign enemies . T hey ori ent their militar y prepar ati ons and foreign policies towar d meeting their thr eats. T hey ass ure their c onstit uents that they will not let their adversaries take advantage. Usuall y, thes e acti vi ties ar e done in public . H enc e, we should be abl e to foll ow the explicit c ues in decisionmaker utter ances and
writings , as well as in the descripti ve politic al his tori es written about the foreig n policies of s pecific c ountries.3 Dr awing from available r ec ords and his tori es, Thompson and D avi d Dreyer ha ve gener ated a uni vers e of strategic ri valries from 1494 to 2010 that ser ves as the basis for this proj ect’s empirical anal ysis.4 T his proj ect meas ures rivalr y ter minati on as occurri ng on the last year that T homps on and Dreyer r ecor d the existence of a ri valr y. Ec onomic crises lead to c onciliator y behavior thr oug h fi ve primar y c hannels. ( 1) Ec onomic crises lead to aus ter ity pr ess ures , which i n tur n incent leaders to search for ways to cut defense expenditures. ( 2) Ec onomic crises als o encourag e str ategic reass ess ment, s o that leaders c an argue to their peers and their publics that defense s pendi ng c an be arres ted without endangeri ng the state. This can l ead to threat deflation, where elites attempt to downpl ay the s erious nes s of the threat pos ed by a former ri val. ( 3) If a state fac es multipl e thr eats, ec onomic cris es provoke elites to c onsider thr eat pri oritization, a
proc ess that is pos tponed during periods of ec onomic nor malc y. ( 4) Ec onomic crises incr eas e the political and ec onomic benefi t fr om inter natio nal ec onomic cooper ati on. Leaders s eek for eign aid, enhanc ed trade, and incr eas ed inves tment from abroad during periods of ec onomic troubl e. This searc h is made easier i f tensions are reduc ed with historic ri vals . (5) Fi nally, duri ng crises , elites ar e more prone to s el ect l eaders who ar e perc ei ved as capabl e of r es ol ving economic diffic ulties, permitting the emergenc e of l eaders who hold heterodox foreig n poli cy views . C ollec ti vel y, these mec hanis ms make i t much mor e li kel y that a leader will prefer c onciliator y policies compar ed to duri ng periods of ec o nomic normalc y. T his s ecti on revi ews this caus al logic i n greater detail, while als o provi di ng historic al examples that these mec hanis ms r ec ur in pr actic e. Ec onomic Crisis Leads to Austerity
Ec onomic crises gener ate pr ess ure for austerity. Government revenues ar e a function of nati onal economic production, so that when production di minis hes
through rec essi on, revenues available for expenditure als o di minis h. Planning al mos t i nvari abl y as sumes growth rather than c o ntrac tion, so the deviation i n avail abl e r evenues c ompared to the pl anned expenditure c an be sizabl e. When growth slowdowns ar e prol onged, the cumulati ve departure from pl anning targets c an grow even fur ther, even if no single quarter meets the techni cal defi nition of rec essi on. Pr ess ures for austerity ar e felt most acutel y i n g over nments that fac e diffic ulty borrowing to finance defici t expenditures. T his is es peciall y the cas e when this borrowing r elies on i nternati onal s ourc es of credit. Even for s ta tes that c an borrow, however , intell ectual attachment to balanc ed budg ets as a means to r estore confi denc e— a beli ef i n what is s ometi mes c alled “expansionar y austerity”—g enerates inc enti ves to c urtail expenditure. Thes e i ncenti ves to cut occ ur pr ecis el y when populations are experiencing ec onomic har ds hip, maki ng reducti ons es peciall y painful that target poverty allevi ation, welfare pr ograms, or ec onomic s ubsidi es. As a
result, mass and elite c onstituents str ongl y r esist such cuts. Welfare progr ams and other for ms of public s pending may be esp eci ally suscepti ble to a polic y “ratc het effect,” wher e peopl e are ver y rel uctant to for ego be nefits onc e they have bec ome acc us tomed to their availability.6 As Paul Piers on has argued, “The politics [of wel far e state] retr enchment is typic all y treacher ous , bec ause it i mpos es tangibl e l oss es on conc entrated groups of voters i n retur n for diff us e and uncertai n gai ns.”7 Austerity Leads to Cutbac ks in Defens e Spendi ng At a mini mum, the politic al costs of purs uing aus terity through cutbac ks in soci al and ec onomic expenditur es alone make such a path unappealing. In practic e, this can s pur polic ymakers to c urtail nati onal s ec urity s pending as a way to balanc e budgets duri ng periods of ec onomic tur moil. T here is often more dis creti on over defens e s pending than over other ar eas in the budget, and it i s fr equentl y dis tantl y connected to the welfare of th e mass public. Many militaries need for eign arms and for eign ammunition for their
militari es, so defense expenditures ar e doubl y c ostl y sinc e they both take up val uabl e defens e budget spac e while als o s endi ng hard curr enc y overs eas, r ather than c onstituenci es at home. Purs uing defens e c uts may als o c onform to the preferenc es of the financial s ec tor, whic h shows a s trong aversi on to militar y conflict even if that means polici es of appeasement and conciliation.8 D uring periods of economic expansion, the opportunit y c osts as soci ated with defens e expenditure—the requir ement for higher taxes or foreg one s pending i n other areas — are r eal but acc eptabl e.
Ec onomic contr acti on heightens the oppor tunity cos ts by forci ng a choic e between di fferent types of s pendi ng. T here is a cons tituenc y for defens e s pending i n the armed s er vices, i ntelligenc e agencies, and ar ms i ndus tries, but even in militariz ed ec onomies this c onstituenc y tends to be numeric ally much s mall er than thos e that favor s ocial and economic expenditures over mil itar y ones. Defens e C utbac ks Enc ourage Rapproc hement An inter est in defens e c utbac ks can
lead to conciliator y behavi or through two paths. First, the c utbac ks thems el ves s er ve as a concr ete signal to advers aries that the militar y thr eat posed by the ec onomicall y dis tress ed state is declini ng. T his permits the other s tate to halt that porti on of defense s pendi ng dedicated to keepi ng up, br eaki ng the bac k of ong oing arms rac es through r ecipr ocated, but non- neg oti ated moves. Unil ateral c onventi onal forc e r educti ons were a major element of Gorbac hev’s foreign polic y i n the late 1980s , alongside negotiated s trategic arms c ontrol, and di plomatic efforts to achi eve politic al unders tandings with the U nited States .9 Gorbac hev si milarl y us ed forc e r educti ons i n A fghanis tan, Mongolia, and the Sovi et Far East to signal to C hina i n 1987 that he was seri ous about politic al neg otiations.10 Elsewher e, non- neg oti ated, tit-for-tat military r edeployments facilitated Argentina-Brazil rappr ochement.11 Sec ond, l eaders may beli eve c utbac ks are nec essar y, but woul d be dangerous i n the abs enc e of neg otiated i mprovements with tr aditional foes .
Economic downturns can serve as motivation to pursue arms control or political
settlement.
During periods of economic crisis,
cuts in defense
spending, are pursued with greater vigor.
a unilateral
reduction will signal seriousness that opens the way for political agreement,
which in turn permits even deeper reductions.
Economic
Downturns Provoke Strategic Reassessment:
During an
economic crisis, politics and policy are “more fluid,” as old answers seem stale
and insufficient.
Economic downturns
encourage
vigorous pursuit for economic cooperation.
During peri ods of nor malc y, suc h outc omes would be positi ves, but are viewed as “too hard” by politic al leaders that move fro m one urgent problem to the next.
however, arms c ontrol or politic al i mpr ovements might allow for muc h needed
The Johnson admi nistration attempted both unil ateral and negoti ated ar ms li mitati ons bec ause of budgetar y conc erns as Pr esident J ohns on and Secretar y McN amar a s truggled to pay for the “Great Soci ety” domestic pr ograms and the i ncreasi ngly c ostl y Vietnam War. T hey first attempted unil ateral “c aps” on c ostl y nucl ear forc es and anti- ballistic mi ssile defens es and when this failed to lead to a reciprocal Soviet res ponse they engaged i n for mal ar ms contr ol tal ks. Détente c ontinued in the Ni xon admi nistration,
and
acc eler ating i n 1971 and 1972, si multaneous with rising budget defici ts and i nfl ation so seri ous that Ni xon ins tituted price contr ols. Ni xon’s deci sion to s harpl y li mit anti-ballistic missil e defens es to enabl e arms c ontr ol tal ks was contr ar y to his s trategic vi ews, but nec essitated by a diffic ult budg et ar y environment that made payi ng for mor e missil e defense emplacements unrealistic.12 As Ni xon tol d his national security advis or Kis singer i n an April 1972 disc ussi on of ballistic missile and anti- ballistic missile devel opments : “You know we' ve got a hell of a budget pr obl em. We' ve g ot to cut it down, we' ve g ot to cut 5 billion dollars off next year's defens e budg et. So, I don't want to [inaudi ble: do it?] unless we've g ot s ome s ettl ement with the Russians.” 13 In prac tice, unilater al defens e c uts and force reduc tions are freq uentl y combi ned with neg otiated political agreements in a seq uenti al, iterati ve fashi on, wher e
Defens e c uts and force reductions ar e not onl y a means to achi eve ri valr y ter mi nation, but als o a goal in and of thems el ves t hat ri valr y ter mi nation hel ps s ec ure. Leaders are seeki ng res ources from defense they can use els ewher e. T hus when Argentine l eader R aul Alfonsín c ampaigned for the need for drastic budgetar y austerity, his s pecific “pl atfor m was the reducti on of militar y spendi ng to use it for the other mi nistri es, connec ted with the c oncept of
elimi nating the hypothesis of conflict” with Argenti nian ri vals, acc ordi ng to Adalberto R odrí guez Gi avari ni, who s er ved i n Al fonsín’s mi nistr y of defense (and later was Argentina’s for eign mi nister).14 Simil arly, Gor bac hev was moti vated to reduce ar ms in the l ate 1980s becaus e he deter mined it was nec ess ar y to c ut Soviet defens e s pending and defens e producti on, and r epurpos e part of the defense industr y to make c onsumer and ci vilian c apital goods, acc ordi ng to c ontemporar y U .S. C entral Intelligence Agenc y classified ass ess ments.15 T hus the “main reas on” why strategic ar ms c ontrol br eakthr oug hs occ urred fr om 1986 to 1988 and the Sovi et Afg han i nterventi on concl uded in 1989 was a realizati on within the Politburo of “exces si vel y high expenditures on defens e,” acc ordi ng to Ni kolai R yzhkov, Gorbac hev’s prime mi nister.16
Threat D efl ati on and Pri oritization Economic downturns enc our age l eaders to s eek new ideas to us e to frame their polic y problems . D uring periods of economic di fficul ty, elites c an c ome to realize that their pr obl ems are not amenabl e to old sol uti ons, and search for new i deas .17
18 An ideational entr epr eneur that c an link ec onomic lemon s to for ei gn polic y lemonad e can fi nd a patr on when l eaders ar e c asti ng about for ways to refr ame the world in ac ceptabl e ways to their peers and pu blics. T he behavi or of an old foe is often ambiguous , and c an be viewed as either i njurious to one’s inter ests or neutral toward them. Duri ng periods of normalc y, the moti vation of defens e establishments is tilted towar d threat and danger. D uring per i ods of ec onomic crisis, nati onal l eaders have a c ounter acti ng moti vati on to downplay such dang ers, s o that the thr eats fac ed by a nation are manag eable through availabl e resources. Ec onomic diffic ulti es provi de a moti vatio n for l eaders to vi ew equi vocal signals from the internati onal s ystem i n a way that is benig n. T o the extent that ri valries are perpetuated bec aus e of threat i nfl ation,
economic downturns pr ovide i nc enti ves to deflate the thr eat, potenti all y disrupti ng c ycl es of c ompetition and enmity.
South Korean presi dent Ki m D ae-jong came to power i n the after math of the 1998 Asi an economic crisis, pursued a “suns hine polic y” towar d the N orth, c ut Sout h Kor ean defens e s pending i n nomi nal and real ter ms, and purs ued a polic y towar d N orth Korea that politic al sci entist D ong Sun Lee c alled “threat deflation” des pite the growing N orth Kor ean nuclear weapons threat.19 Economic crises c an als o s pur str ategic reass ess ment thr oug h another channel. If l eaders vi ew economic problems as structural, r ather than a t empor ar y gal e, they may come to q ues tion whether available national res ources ar e s ufficient to confr ont all of the nati onal thr eats i dentifi ed in the past. T his cr eates inc enti ves to ec onomiz e threats , s eeking politic al s ettlements wher e possibl e i n or der to foc us r emai ning resources on competiti ons that c an be won. A c oncrete exampl e: i n 1904, the c hanc ellor to the Exchequer wrote his cabinet c olleagues: “[W]e
must frankl y admi t that the fi nanci al resources of the U nited King dom ar e inadeq uate to do all that we s houl d desire i n the matter of Imperial defens e.”20 T he result was a Britis h decision to mi ni mize politic al dis agreement with the United States and foc us on other defens e c hallenges. Whil e s uch a decisi on is in line with r ealist advic e, i t occ urred not when the power traj ectories wer e evident to Britis h decisionmakers but when the budg et situati on had reac hed a crisis that coul d no l onger be ignor ed. Economic D owntur ns Incr eas e Inc enti ves for Internati onal Ec onomic C ooperation
of opportuni ties
2.
not onl y cr eate i nc enti ves to c ut spendi ng, they
This, too, can engender c onciliator y behavi or. Ec onomic downtur ns c an increase moti ves to purs ue tr ade and i nvestment. Ri valries with ol d
Slavery DA
a. Slavery occurs even with portability – regulations not
enforced and can’t find new jobs
Mitchell 13
5-9-
Latin American reporter for Public R adio Inter national with a B.A. in Histor y fr om the Uni versity of Wisc onsi n-Madis on. C hip Mitchell “Pr opos ed visa c oul d ti e more for eigners to abusi ve empl oyers WBEZ” http://www.g ues twor kerallianc e.org/2013/05/proposed- visa-c ould-ti e-more- foreigners-to-abusi ve- empl oyers-wbez-5913/
Supporters
point out that the visa,
, would allow foreigners to
switch employers
But a examination of the legislation suggests that the Visa
could, tether the foreigners to potentially abusive bosses and would not provide
any guarantee of a future in the country.
of a propos ed visa for low-s killed, nonseas onal l abor ers s ay it would br eak t he mol d for U.S. guest- wor ker programs . T hey
and woul d provi de a path to citizens hip.
part of a s weeping i mmigration bill that a Senate c ommi ttee took up T hursday
WBEZ
W
in practic e,
The pr ogram, devel oped in tal ks between the U.S. Chamber of C ommerce and the AF L-CIO, woul d s et up a l egal mechanis m for bringing in as many as 200,000 for eigners a year to wor ksites that could range from m eatpac ki ng plants to nursing homes . Busi ness groups behind the plan s ay it woul d hel p provi de a “future flow” of l egal wor kers into positi ons that Americ ans don’t want. T he AFL-CIO, the nati on’s larges t labor federation, agreed to hel p for mul ate the W Visa as part of the pr opos ed immigration overhaul, whic h would
National Guestworker Alliance,
points out that existing guest-worker programs tie the foreigners to their
employer. “If they complain about working conditions or organize, there is a
readymade retaliation button
The groups behind the Visa say the
program would be different. They point to a “portability”
But there’s some fine print. The bill would require unemployed W Visa holders
to find a job within 60 days. And they could not apply just anywhere. They would
have to work for another employer registered in the program. The search for such
an employer could be daunting. Few of the workers would speak English well and
know their way around. “Sixty days to find a job these days is pretty challenging
provi de legal status to millions of low-s kill ed wor kers who lac k authorizati on to be in the c ountr y. T he feder ation negoti ated des pite viewi ng guest- wor ker programs as a drag on wages. F or W Visa hol ders, the AF L-CIO managed to i nser t s afeguards. The for eigners woul d have whistlebl ower protec tions and the empl oyers would be s ubj ect to all labor l aws. Theoretic all y the wor kers would get overti me pay, s afety gear , lunc h breaks and so on. The practic al questi on is whether the W Vi sa holders woul d have the freedom to speak up for s uch rights. Saket Soni, exec uti ve dir ector of the N ew Orleans- bas ed
,” Soni s ai d. “Empl oyers can simpl y ter minate a wor ker and deport their problem bec ause, onc e they’re fired, thos e wor kers ar e deportable.”
W
provi sion that woul d allow the for eigners to s witch employers. “Portability is , reall y, the foundati on of all labor rights,” s aid T amar J ac oby, presi dent and C EO of a pr o-business group c alled ImmigrationWor ks USA. “If you want to as k for better wages or b etter c onditi ons or better anything, your lever age c omes fr om bei ng able
to s ay, ‘I’ m l eavi ng.’ ”
Senate
, as it s tands,
,” Soni sai d, even for
b. AT – regulations solve – Regulatory guest worker programs
are impossible—employers and congress make new
restrictions unattainable
Bauer 13
et. al
(Mar y Bauer is the director of the Southern Pover ty Law Center; JD and Skadden F ellow @ U VA Law; Coll ege of William & Mar y // ‘Cl os e to Sl aver y: Guestwor ker Pr ograms in the Uni ted States’ http://www.s plc enter.org/sites/default/files /downl oads /publicati on/SPLC-Clos e-to- Slaver y-2013.pdf) L Shen
neither set of regulations has gone into effect; employers
have filed multiple lawsuits challenging them, and Congress has effectively
blocked implementation of the new wage regulations. For workers, then, the
In the past s everal years, the D OL has pr opos ed two s ets of regul ati ons to better pr otect non- agricultural H- 2 wor kers – one rel ated to wag e rate guarantees and one more comprehensi ve s et of reg ulati ons. T hes e reg ulati ons also would better protec t the jobs and wag es of U .S. wor kers. Unfortunatel y for wor kers,
abuses continue unabated. It is virtually impossible to create a guestworker
program for low-wage workers that does not involve systemic abuse .
The H-2 guestwor ker pr ogram s houl d not be expanded i n the name of immigrati on refor m and should not be the model for the future flow of wor kers
c. Plan fails to help guest workers, its bad
Farm Worker Justice 11
(This report by F armwor ker Justice was researched and written by Etan Newman under the g uidance of Br uc e Goldstein and Adrienne D erVartani an, with assistanc e fr om Weeun Wang, Virgini a R uiz, and
Jessic a F eli x-Romero) “N o Way to Tr eat a Guest: Why the H2- A Agricultur al vis a fails U .S. and F oreign Wor kers”, http://far mwor kerjustic e.org/sites/default/files /doc uments /7.2.a.6%20N o% 20Way% 20To%20Tr eat% 20A% 20Gues t% 20H- 2A%20R eport.pdf
. The
frequently approves illegal job terms in the workers’ contracts.
Guest wor ker programs dri ve down wages and wor king c ondi tions of U .S. wor kers and depri ve foreign wor kers of ec onomic bar gaini ng power and the opportuni ty to g ain political repr esentati on . ➜ T he H-2A program’s protec tions for U .S. wor kers and agai nst exploi tation of g ues t wor kers by empl oyers are modes t; i n fac t, th ey ar e sim ilar to tho se in the Bracero p rogr am (1942- 1964), which was ter minated due to its notorious labor abuses. ➜ Once an empl oyer deci des to enter the H- 2A program, the law creates i ncenti ves to pr efer g uest wor kers over U .S. wor kers. F or example, the empl oyer must pay Soci al Sec urity and unemployment taxes on U.S. wor kers’ wages but is exempt fr om payi ng thes e taxes on gues t wor kers’ wages. ➜ Vi olati ons of the rights of U.S. wor kers and guest wor kers by H- 2A program employers ar e r ampant and s ystemic
which has pri mar y r es ponsi bility for adminis teri ng the H- 2A pr ogram,
H-2A
U.S. D epartment of Labor
(DOL),
U.S. wor kers who appl y for H-2A j obs are r ejec ted or forc ed to quit.
routinely experience wage theft and other unlawful practices. ➜
Many guest workers must pay recruiters for jobs and enter the U.S.
indebted, desperate to work, and fearful that the loss of their job will lead to
financial ruin. The recruitment system has led to numerous documented cases
of debt-peonage, human trafficking, and forced labor.
Employees
wor kers ar e endemic . H-2A empl oyers and their r ecrui ting agents i n M exic o and other
at H- 2A employers
Abuses in the recr uitment of foreign
poor c ountri es exploit the vul ner ability of foreign citizens .
H-2A
H-2A
➜ More than one- half of the far mwor kers on U .S. far ms and r anc hes l ac k authoriz ed i mmigrati on status. The presence of s o many undoc umented wor kers depri ves all far mwor kers of bargai ning power and politi cal i nfl uenc e. D eporti ng all or most undocumented farmwor kers woul d be cos tl y and i mpr actic al, i nflict har m on hundreds of
thous ands of har d- wor ki ng far mwor kers and their families , many of whom are Uni ted States citiz ens, and depri ve agriculture of the wor kforce it needs to produce our fr uits, veg etabl es and li vestoc k.
d. Legalization won’t solve for worker exploitation---other
factors contribute to low pay, including age, education, and
English skills
Skerry 01
(Peter, professor of politic al sci enc e at Clar emont M cKenna C ollege, “Why Amnesty Is the Wrong Way to Go,” Br ooki ngs, publis hed 8/12/01, acc ess ed 7/16/18, https ://brooki ngs.edu/opi nions/why-amnesty-is-the- wr ong- way- to-go/ ) //Lex-C L
undocumented immigrants get paid less
than other workers. But the research also attributes this fact not to the immigrants’ legal status, but to
their youth, their low education and skill levels, their limited English proficiency
and their short stints with specific employers. In fact, there is a considerable body
of research indicating that the well-being of immigrants is less a function of their
Amnesty is the c ompassi onate component in the adminis trati on’s c ons er vati ve pitc h to His panics . And even though the degree of compassion i n amnes ty is greatl y exaggerated and its politi cal benefit to Bus h s teadily s hrinki ng, the White H ouse will find i t all but i mpossibl e to abandon the i dea of amnesty now that i t has been put on the tabl e. Amnes ty may seem, on the s urface, to be a reasonabl e measur e, but what s pecific problems facing illeg als does i t redress? Res earch has shown that
legal status than of the length of time they have been in the United States
. The problems that bes et undoc umented i mmigrants di minis h as they c ease to become tr ansients ( whether
moving around i n the U.S. or bac k and for th to Mexi co), settl e down i n mor e s table jobs and neighbor hoods, pic k up s kills and begin to familiarize thems el ves with English. And of course, the more time ill egals s pend her e, the more adep t they bec ome at avoidi ng the INS. T his last poi nt is partic ularl y telling, bec aus e most of this r esearc h was done when there was muc h more intensi ve interi or enforcement by the INS than there is today, when the bul k of the ag enc y’ s efforts are c onc entrated at the border. With i nterior enforc ement virtuall y nil, it’s ironic that the iss ue of amnesty should surfac e now. And it ma kes the AF L-CIO’s pr opos ed Immigrants Fr eedom Ride— a r epl ay of the ci vil rights movement’s freedom rides, with busloads of ill egals fr om across the nati on c onverging on Was hington—look like an effort to pr ovoke the feder al government i nto actuall y enforcing i mmigrati on l aws i n the i nterior.
e. Past efforts to regulate abuses have all failed
Bauer et. al 13
(Mar y Bauer is the direc tor of the Southern Poverty Law Center; JD and Skadden F ellow @ U VA Law; C olleg e of William & M ar y // ‘Close to Sl aver y: Guestwor ker Pr ograms i n the U nited States’ http://www.s plc enter.org/sites/default/files /downloads/publication/SPLC-Clos e-to-Slaver y- 2013.pdf) LShen
Unfortunately, these efforts have either fallen short or been
defeated by employer challenges.
In theory, these measures
should prevent sham companies with no assets from obtaining h-2A workers
however, farmworker advocates report that labor contractors are part of
government enforcement circumventing these protections by supplying
fraudulent information to the DoL,
The DoL has attempted
to change this practice by proposing regulations that require job contractors to
establish their own temporary labor shortage and to file applications jointly with
their employer
These regulations have been blocked, however, by employerdriven legal challenges.
Recog nizing thes e problems, the DoL has attempted to better r egulate – though not prohi bit – the invol vement of job contr actors in the h- 2A and h- 2B pr ograms i n recent years.
In 2010, the D oL enacted new r egulations that requir e farm labor contr actors to lis t the empl oyers that will actuall y be usi ng the labor on their applic ati on for the temporar y l abor .69 T he regul ati ons als o r equire l abor contr actors that appl y for h-2A wor kers to pos t a bond.
and hiring out their labor . In prac tice,
8 • lac k
29
includi ng clai ms that they are growers or empl oyers , to avoid the bond r equirement. under the c urrent h- 2B regul ations , job contr actors may petition for h-2B wor kers by demons trati ng that the ulti mate employer, r ather than the c ontrac tor, is experienci ng a temporar y l abor s hortag e.
-clients as a pre-c ondition of appl ying for h-2B wor kers .
f. Slavery and human trafficking are extremely evil, don’t vote
for them if there’s an even 1% chance of the link
g. CROSS APPLY OUR SKERRY 01 EVIDENCE TO THEIR
PORTABILITY CLAIM, EDUCATION, ENGLISH
PROFICIENCY, AND A LAUNDRY LIST OF OTHER
FACTORS MAKE THIS PORTABILITY NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE! THIS LEADS TO SLAVERY!
3.
Growth DA
a. Growth is unsustainable---causes war and environmental
destruction
CASSE, 2018.
Envir onmental Pr otection
C enter for the Advanc ement of Steady State Economy. https ://steadystate.org/ Acc essed 7/3/18 //WR-NC P
Economic growth is the biggest threat of the 21st Century
. Growth, especi all y in wealthy nations, is alr eady causi ng mor e pr oblems than it sol ves. Thes e problems ar e grave: environmental destruction, ec onomic ins tability, and inter national tur moil that threatens national security. Let’s start wi th the environment
rapidl y becomi ng
.
Think about how an economy is structured. There must be agricultural and
extractive surplus for the manufacturing and services to proliferate, and this
surplus must increase for the economy to grow . , environmental impact increases
in step with agricultural and extractive production. The clearest example is
,
Meanwhile
of this envir onmental impact is biodi versity loss
because the growing economy degrades and liquidates wildlife habitats. every
Virtuall y
environmental problem – air pollution, water shortage, climate change, etc. – can
be traced to economic growth.
Furthermore,
economic growth based on technological progress takes away as many jobs as it
gives.
Economic growth is a threat not only to the
environment and long-term jobs, but to national security and international
Economic Sustainability How can we have mor e and more jobs – billions mor e, perpetuall y mor e – on a finite planet? T o think we c an have per petuall y more j obs on Earth is li ke thinki ng we c an squeez e a billion jobs i nto a per petuall y s hrinki ng area! In fact thes e proposi tions are pr ecisel y, equall y ludicrous . Sustai nable employment is all about es tablishi ng a steady state ec onomy.
T hink about c apital-intensi ve production wi th robots and automati on. What’s the future i n that? Economic s ustainability req uires a steady s tate ec onomy with stabilized populati on and a rigorous l abor forc e wor king in tandem with appropriate technolog y. Already on board? Wishi ng we had a steady state ec onomy? H elp make it happen: Internati onal Stability
stability. war is a history of competition for natural resources and economic
T he his tor y of
growth .
Need examples? World War II s tarted with the doc trine of “ Lebensr aum,”
the Cold War score was kept in terms of GDP, and conflict in the
Middle East centers on oil and water.
b. Geoengineering fails – it increases risk of environmental
degradation, doesn’t have political support, and are
motivated by companies for profit, economic collapse is
the only option
Unmüßig ’17
– President of the H einric h Böll F oundation ( Bar bar a, Ec o-Business , “Geoengineering will not s ave us fr om cli mate c hang e,” 10/16/17, http://www.ec o-business .c om/opi nion/geoengineering-will-not-s ave-us-fr om-climate-change/)//PS
Geoengineering
Proponents of this science feed the
illusion that there is a way to engineer an exit from the climate crisis,
and
maintain a consumption-heavy lifestyle
climate engineering
is not
only risky; it also directs attention away from the only solution we know will
work: reducing Each of the engineered technologies being discussed carries
dangers and uncertainties.
SRM
could cause
irreversible damage. Current models predict that SRM deployment would alter
global precipitation patterns, damage the ozone layer, and undermine the
livelihoods of millions of people.
once deployed globally, SRM could spawn
powerful weapons, giving states, corporations, or individuals the ability to
manipulate climate for strategic gain
Some
CDR approaches are already prohibited, owing to concerns about possible
environmental consequences. For example, fertilisation of oceans with carbonsequestering plankton was banned
Parties to that decision worried about the
potential damage to marine life
(CCS)
promises
are simply too good to be true. For example, huge amounts of energy, water, and
fertiliser would be required to operate BECCS systems successfully. The effects
on land use would likely lead to terrestrial species losses, and increase land
competition and displacement of local populations.
these projects could
lead to a net increase in greenhouse gas emissions,
Political preferences, not scientific or
ecological necessity, explain the appeal of geoengineering.
We
cannot afford to gamble with the future of our planet.
—the l arge-sc ale manipulation of the Ear th’s natural s ystems— has been popul arised as a means of c ounterac ting the neg ati ve effects of cli mate c hange.
As the world s truggles to rein in emissi ons of cli mate-changi ng gas es and li mit pl anetar y warmi ng, a new technologic al sil ver bullet is gai ning s upporters.
meet the goals of the 2015 Paris cli mate agreement,
—either as a pl anetar y i ns urance polic y or as a l ast- ditc h meas ure to c ombat rising temperatur es—
. But this s oluti on is not as si mple as pr oponents would have us beli eve. Betting on
carbon emissions.
For exampl e, the onl y way to tes t the effecti venes s of s olar r adiati on management (SRM) on a global s cal e woul d be to c arry o ut experiments i n the envir onment— either by spr aying particles into the stratospher e, or by artifici all y modifyi ng cl ouds. While s uch tests would be designed to deter mine whether
c oul d reflec t enough s unlight to cool the planet, experi mentati on its elf
Beyond the ecol ogical ris ks , critics war n that,
(an idea that not even H oll ywood c an resist). But per haps the most i mportant criticism is a politic al one: i n a world of challenged multilater alism, how would global ec ologic al inter ventions be governed? Si milar q ues tions surround the other maj or group of cli mate engineering technol ogies under debate—s o-call ed car bon di oxide r emoval (CDR). Proponents of thes e tec hnologi es propose removing C O2 from the atmos phere and storing it underground or i n the ocea ns.
by the London Protoc ol on mari ne polluti on in 2008.
techniques. C alled “ bioenerg y with CC S,” or BECC S, this method s eeks to pair the C O2- absor ption c apabilities of fas t-growi ng pl ants wi th underground C O2 storage methods. Proponents argue that BECC S woul d actuall y yiel d “negati ve” emissi ons . Yet, as with other engineer ed s oluti ons, the
. But other CDR appr oac hes are gaini ng s upport. One of the mos t dis cus sed i deas ai ms to integrate biomass with c arbon capture an d stor age
Some forecas ts even sugges t that the l and cl earing and c onstruc tion acti vi ties ass oci ated with
at least i n the s hort term. T hen there is the iss ue of sc ale. In order for BECC S to ac hieve emissi ons limi ts s et by the Paris agreement, between 430 mill ion and 580 million hec tar es ( 1.1 billion to 1.4 billion acres) of land woul d be needed to grow the r equired vegetation. T hat is a st aggering one third of the worl d’s arable l and. Si mpl y put, there ar e s afer— and proven— ways to withdraw
CO2 from the atmos phere. R ather than creati ng ar tificial C O2-bindi ng “far ms,” g overnments s houl d foc us on pr otecti ng already-exi sting natur al ec os ystems and all owing degraded ones to r ecover. Rai nfores ts, oc eans , and peatl ands (suc h as bogs) have i mmens e C O2 storage c apaciti es and do not req uire untested technol ogical manipulation. By pushi ng unproven tec hnologi es as a c ure for all cli mate-changing ills, proponents are sugges ting that the world fac es an unavoidable choic e: geoengineering or dis aster. But this is disingenuous.
Unfortunatel y, c urrent debates about climate engineering ar e undemocr atic and dominated by tec hnocr atic worldvi ews, natural scienc e and engineering pers pecti ves, and vested inter ests in the fos sil -fuel industries . D eveloping c ountri es, indigenous peoples , and l ocal communities mus t
be given a pr ominent voic e, s o that all ris ks can be full y c onsidered befor e any geoengineeri ng technolog y is tested or i mplemented. By pus hing unpr oven tec hnol ogies as a cur e for all cli mate-c hanging ills, proponents ar e s uggesting that the world fac es an unavoi dabl e c hoic e: geoengineering or dis aster. So what c onvers ation s houl d we be havi ng about geoengineeri ng? F or starters, we need to rethink the exi sting g over nanc e l andsc ape. In 2010, parties to the Uni ted N ati ons’ Convention on Bi ological Di versity (CBD) agreed to a de facto inter national moratorium on cli mate-r elated geoengineering. But today, with powerful advoc ates generati ng s o much pr ess ure to bri ng geoengineering tec hnol ogies out of the lab, i nformal bans ar e no longer s uffi cient. The world urgentl y needs an honest debate on the res earch, deployment, and gover nanc e of thes e tec hnol ogies; the C BD and the London Pr otocol are essenti al starti ng points for thes e governance dis cus sions. Among the tec hnol ogies that r equire the mos t scr uti ny are CDR pr ojec ts that thr eaten
indigenous lands, food s ecurity, and water avail ability. Suc h l arge-sc ale technol ogical schemes must be reg ulated diligentl y, to ensur e that climate-change s ol utions do not advers el y affect sustainabl e devel opment or human rights. In additi on, the outdoor tes ting and depl oyment of SRM technol ogies , bec ause of their potential to weaken human rights, democr ac y, and inter national peace, s houl d be banned outright. T his ban shoul d be overs een by a r obus t and acc ountable multil ater al global governance mec hanis m. No sil ver bullet for cli mate change has yet been found. And while geoengineeri ng technologies remain mostl y aspirational, there are pr oven mi tigati on opti ons that c an and s hould be i mplemented vig orousl y. Thes e include sc aling up renewable energ y, phasing out fossil fuels (incl uding an earl y retirement of existi ng fos sil infr astr ucture), wider diffusion of sus tai nabl e agroec ol ogical agriculture, and incr eased energ y and r esourc e i nput i nto our ec onomy.
If we engag e in a seri ous dis cus sion about ec ologicall y sustai nabl e and s oci all y just measur es to protect the Earth’s cli mate, there will be no need to roll the dice on geoengi neering.
c. Renewables won’t solve
Alexander, 15
—lecturer at the Offic e for Environmental Pr ograms, Uni versity of Mel bour ne (Samuel, Suffici enc y Economy pg 109- 110, dml)
it is highly doubtful that renewable energy will ever be
able to sustain a growth-orientated, industrial civilisation.
the problems of
intermittency and storage make renewable energy supply much more expensive
and problematic than most analysts think
electricity only constitutes
about 18% of final energy consumption meaning that there is still around 82% of
energy to replace, including oil used for transport, pesticides, and plastics, etc.
that they will never be able to sustain an industrial
civilisation,
Ther e is one point des er vi ng of further emphasis. In res pons e to the pr obl ems of climate c hange and peak oil, many people nat urall y hol d up renewable energ y as the sal vati on of ci vilisation, argui ng that all we need to do is transiti on to renewable e nergy and the pr obl ems of peak oil and cli mate c hange will be res ol ved. T he pr obl em is that
Althoug h it may be
techn ically f easib le
from an engineering per specti ve,
(see Moriar ty and H onner y, 2012; Tr ainer, 2013a; Tr ainer, 2013b). Even if el ectricity coul d be affor da bl y suppli ed by renewables ,
(IEA, 2012),
If we tr y to
produc e that remaini ng seg ment of energ y with biofuels, the producti on of
bi ofuels
woul d
c ompete with l and
for food produc tion, a conflict that also seems to be already under way, des pite the rel ati vel y low levels of bi ofuels pr oduc tion today (Timilsi na, 2014) . Bi ofuels al so have a
as we know i t today.
ver y l ow energ y retur n on investment
– between 1 and 3 (M urphy, 2014: 12), s uggesti ng
d. Collapse coming now and solves
Pollard 16
(Dave Poll ard, Dave Pollard retired from paid wor k in 2010, after 35 years as an advis or to s mall enterpris es, with a foc us on sustainability, innovation, and understandi ng c ompl exity. He is a long -ti me student of our c ultur e and i ts s ystems, of histor y and of how the world reall y wor ks, and has authored the blog H ow to Save the Worl d for over twel ve years. His book Fi ndi ng the Sweet Spot: T he Natur al Entr epr eneur’s Guide to Responsi ble, Sus tai nable, J oyful Wor k, was publis hed by C helsea Green in 20 08. He is one of the authors of Gr oup Wor ks: A Pattern Languag e for Bringing Life to M eetings and Other Gatherings , published in 2 012. H e is a member of the i nternational Transiti on movement, the C ommuniti es movement and the Shari ng Ec onomy movement, and i s a regul ar writer for the deep ec olog y magazine Shift. H e is wor ki ng on a c ollec tion of short stori es about the world two millenni a fr om now. H e li ves on Bowen
Island, C anada, A Complex Pr edic ament: H ow Our Energ y, Ec onomic and Ec ologic al Systems are C onnec ted, http://howtosavetheworl d.c a/2016/06/01/a-complex- predic ament- how- our-energy- economic-and- ec ological-s ystems-are-c onnected-repos t/, 6/1/2016)//DT
to precipitate economic collapse as a means of mitigating both
energy/resource exhaustion and runaway climate change.
this could happen by reducing capital enough to trigger a crash of
the fragile global financial system.
.A
significant drop in energy/resource demand and use will precipitate a strong
economic contraction
; no amount of ‘stimulus’ will
be able to mitigate it, and there is no deus ex machina like war spending or the
discovery of new cheap resources to get us out of it.
Once the
financial system has the accident that is clearly coming, we will be looking at a
substantial fall in societal complexity, but that fall in complexity will eliminate the
possibility of engaging in such highly complex activities as fracking, horizontal
drilling, exploiting the deep offshore or producing solar photovoltaic panels and
inverters…
David Hol mgren, one of the founders of the Per mac ulture Movement, r ecentl y stirred up a fires tor m of contr overs y with his Cr ash on D emand ess ay, sugges ting that it woul d be us eful for us
He summarizes : M y argument is ess entiall y that radical , but achi evabl e behaviour c hange from [bei ng] dependent cons umers to [ becomi ng] s elf-reli ant pr oduc ers ( by s ome rel ati vel y s mall minority of the gl obal middl e cl ass) has a chanc e of s toppi ng the jugger naut of c ons umer c apitalis m fr om drivi ng the
world over the climate chang e cliff. It may be a sli m c hanc e, but a better bet than c urrent hercul ean efforts to get the elites to pull the right polic y l evers… M y argument s uggests
This insight s hows Davi d’s appr eciation of the natur e of complex s ys tems and the interrel ati onshi p between our global energ y/res ource, economic and ec ological /climate s ystems. As the chart at the top of this pos t s hows, ec onomic expansi on is dependent on energ y/res ource suppl y, whic h is itself a func tion of the price, demand, inves tment and regul ati on vari abl es I descri bed in Part One, and in any case not endl essl y sus tai nabl e even if the ec onomy is abl e to support higher and higher extrac tion and development cos ts
(whic h has happened each ti me energ y cos ts have moved signific antl y above the $100/bbl l evel). But an even greater thr eat to the c onti nuati on of our c urrent “grow or c ollaps e” economy is the r ealiz ati on that c urrent l evels of debt in our economy ar e unsustai nable. When that r ealiz ati on bec omes i mpossi ble for mar kets to ignor e, we will fac e the greatest depressi on in human histor y
More about that sc enario, whic h even many ec onomists c an’t s eem to c ompr ehend, later i n this articl e. Bac k to D avi d H olmgren’s proposal : T he reacti ons to his article have been s wift and s ometimes harsh. Tr ansiti on founder Rob H opki ns call ed Davi d’s s uggesti ons “a dangerous r oute to go down”. R ob remains firml y in deni al about the i nevi tability of coll aps e, citi ng
several opti mistic ‘ pros perity-wi thout-growth’ economis ts i n s upport of his belief that a c onc erted global effort by a br oad c oalition of knowledgeable, influential people can pull us out of the positi ve feedbac k loops c urrentl y l eading us towards economic c ollapse (and indeed, End Games i n all three major s ystems). I’ll l ook at that argument later i n this articl e as well. D mitr y Orlov essenti all y dis missed D avi d’s argument as being i nadequate to the tas k, but s aid that des pite its futility, “D on’t let that stop you fr om tr yi ng bec ause, reg ardl ess of r es ults (if any) it’s a g ood thi ng to be tr ying to do.” Nic ole Fos s, who Davi d ac knowledges as one of his i nfluences, takes the opposite poi nt of vi ew to R ob’s . She has repeatedl y argued that ec onomic coll apse will come s oon in any c as e, wi th or without our attempts to under mi ne the current ec onomic s ystem ( or for that matter, prol ong i t). She writes:
[Bec ause they will be c ompletel y unaffordabl e, none of thes e will ever be] a meani ngful energ y source. In fac t, s ome U S states are already dealing with larg e-scal e abandonment of quic kl y
4.
Bees DA
a. Bee collapse leads to human extinction
Benjamin 8
Allison, Author of A World Without Bees, Last flight of the honeybee?, http://www.guardi an.co.uk/environment/2008/may/31/animal wel far e.envir onment
honeybees are vital for the pollination of around 90 crops worldwide. fruits,
vegetables, nuts and seeds are dependent on honeybees. Crops that are used
as cattle and pig feed also rely on honeybee pollination, as does the cotton
plant.
our very existence is inextricably linked to bees the bee
disappears off the surface of the globe, then [humans] would only have four
years of life left.
silent, empty hives are a harbinger of a
looming ecological crisis.
In fac t,
In additi on to almonds , most
So i f all the honeybees dis appear ed, we woul d have to s witc h our di et to cer eals and grain, and gi ve our wardr obes a dr astic makeover. Accor ding to Al bert Ei nstein,
- he is reputed to have s ai d: "If
man
" Bees are a bar ometer of what man is doing to the environment, s ay beekeepers; the c anar y i n the c oal mi ne. J ust as ani mals b ehave weirdl y before an earthquake or a hurricane, c owering in a cor ner or howli ng in the wi nd, s o the
But what is causing them to vanis h - pes ticides, parasites, pests, virus es ? N o one knows for s ure. T he mor e fanciful theories when CCD was first detected incl uded an al-Qaida plot to wr ec k U S agriculture, r adi ati on from mobile phones and even cel esti al i nter vention i n the for m of honeybee r aptur e.