Introduction to Economics and Business Lecture 5: Markets & Information 17-9-2018 Different currents in economics • Neoclassical theory of the firm • Game theory • Transaction costs economics • Agency theory • Behavioral theory • Competitive & Corporate strategy • Evolutionary theory Theme of the book • Governance structures: - How are transactions organised? - Why? • Examples: On the market, in a firm, a collaboration between firms, by the government? • In a firm: How large is that firm? Franchise? Self-employed? Outsourcing? Alliance? • All governance structures have different advantages and disadvantages. • We should be able to explain their existence and importance in different environments. We are not self sufficient Consequence Division of labor Consequence Specialisation • . Condition: Coordination (market or organisation) Markets according to neoclassical economics • Perfect competition - Large amount of buyers and sellers - Homogeneous goods - Free entry and exit - Free, perfect and symmetric information - Consequence: Everybody is a “price taker” • Other assumptions neoclassical economics: - Consumer: unboundedly rational and utility maximizing - Firms: unboundedly rational and profit maximizing – Firms are holistic entities embedded between markets – Firms are production formulas: Y=Lx + Ky + Mz - Markets function in isolation Firms • Stupid question: what is a company? What is the size of a company? • Is a company just a production function? - Input markets Firm Output markets • Labor division & specialization: - By markets (between companies) - Within companies • In markets: relative costs determine the outcome • In companies: managers determine the outcome • Why do companies exist? Neoclassical “Theory of the firm” • A firm: - Is homogeneous - Is holistic - Is managed by one rational actor who makes all decisions - Only has profit maximization as a goal - Buys inputs on markets, sells outputs on markets - Acts like a production function Consequence: - If a firm observes multiple investment opportunities, it will choose the one with the highest expected return - If a firm could become more profitable by changing their strategy, they will immediately do so Markets according to neoclassical economics • Individuals maximize their utility; this is based ont heir preferences • Firms are ‘black boxes’ that act like production functions • “Prices are a sufficient statistic” • Pareto optimal – no actor can be better off without another actor being worse off • Realistic? • Buchanan (1979): “Choice, by its nature, cannot be predetermined and remain choice” The paradox of profits • Every firm has profit maximization as their goal • However, if the market is truly perfect • No firm will be able to make high profits in the long run The paradox of profits € 5 miljard € 5,4 miljard $ 53,7 miljard Stock market: the perfect market? • Markets are usually not perfect financial markets? • Why does stock have value? • Why would this value change? • • • • Efficient market hypothesis – price contains all relevant information Every change in expected returns is immediately eliminated Consequence: Every stock has the same expected return Only new unanticipated information can change the price • However: - January effect - Small Firm effect - Bubbles Markets function in isolation? In the beginning there were markets • The starting point of neoclassical economics is behavior on markets • Important (neglected) question: What makes markets? • Some basic “institutions” are necessary for the existence and functioning of markets: - Property rights - Juridical system - Regulations • What if these institutions differ? What if they are the same? Institutions • Instituties: "humanly devised constraints that structure political, economic and social interactions“ (North, 1991) • In other words: The rules of the game • The way transactions are organised (governance structures) is based on the institutions • Rules of the game Play of the game • If these instititions are less developed, the market will function less well. • If these institutions differ between countries, markets will differ between these countries as well • “Institutional comparative advantages” • If the environment changes, institutions have to change as well • If institutions change, optimal “governance structures” will change as well Markets in isolation? Institutions? Institutions? Institutions? So: markets do not function in isolation Ronald Coase: • Welfare is based on productivity • Productivity is based on specialization • Specialization is only possible with transactions • The amount of transactions depends on transaction costs • Transaction costs are determined by the institutional environment • Institutional environment determines welfare Coase: “Neoclassical economics studies the blood circulation, and ignores the body.” Markets • Markets do not function in isolation A “free” market does not exist • Paradox: • - Markets can only exist with a government (institutions) - More markets leads to more government control Governments intervene in markets: - Regulations - Public goods - Common goods & Externalities • And organisations create markets within organizations: - Internal labor market - Internal capital market - Why? Coordination & Information • For the production of almost all goods and services different actors “work together”. • But how is this “collaboration” organised? • Great importance for information: - On a perfect market: Price contains all information necessary. - Within organisation: Price does not contain all information necessary. Information & perfect markets • Firms cannot influence prices prices are a “sufficient statistic” • Homogeneous goods all information is in the price • (In) complete contracts information about future development and complete information about the transaction • Information symmetry all actors have access to the same information • What if information is not free, complete and/or symmetric? Market failure: Imperfect or asymmetric information • Where the buyer or seller has more/better information than the other party • Asymmetric and/or incomplete information will generally exist for: - heterogeneous commodities with - characteristics that are costly to determine • Information asymmetry examples: – A firm possessing limited information about a potential worker’s abilities – A used car buyer not having complete repair and maintenance history on an auto – An insurance company not knowing risky behavior of a potential insurer – A buyer of a difficult financial product doesn’t have the knowledge to fully understand the product. – A teacher who doesn’t know how hard his students study Fundamental paradox of information - If information is not free, perfect and/or symmetric - Information gathering, analyzing and distributing necessary. - Market solution: Firms gather, analyze and sell information? - But what is the value of (unique) information? - Value can only be assessed by revealing the information but then it losses its value - In other words: The market solution to information asymmetry has an information asymmetry problem itself. Information as an economic good • Information is different form “normal” goods • Information is not a “rival good” • Information has high fixed costs, but almost non existing marginal costs • Outcome: “winners takes (almost) all” • Data (information) the new oil? • “Sony has ‘secret' Spotify-collective” Information • Neoclassical “theory of the firm”: - Perfect, symmetric and free information (in)complete contracts • Often not the case - Asymmetric & imperfect information Market failure - Market failure: Optimal efficiency is not reached Information asymmetry and opportunistic behaviour Information problems arise when: -The price doesn’t reflect all the dimensions of the good. -Uncertainty is present about the future and/or the present. -Information asymmetry exists. • This can lead to opportunistic behaviour: ‘Seeking self-interest with guile’ (Williamson) • We assume the possibility of opportunistic behavior to occur whenever possible Information asymmetry and opportunistic behaviour Actors will try to exploit information assymetries All actors will potentially act opportunistic This can be done: • Before a contract is written, which will lead to “hidden information” or ‘adverse selection’. • After a contract is written, which will lead to “hidden action” or “Moral hazard” Adverse selection • ‘ex ante’ information problem hidden information • Examples: • Hope Scholarships • The market for lemons • Health insurances • Hiring layoffs • In common: Quality (risk) hard to observe • In common: Self selection • In general: “Selection bias” • Can also be used! WWII bomber planes Market for lemons • A lemon is a second-hand car of “low” quality. • When you buy a second hand car, you are not able to observe the quality of this car. • Suppose there are two types of cars: - Low quality: value 500,- High quality: value 2500,• If you cannot see the quality, you will be willing to pay at max the average value: 1500,- (lower demand) • Sellers of good quality cars are not willing to offer their car for that price. • For that reason there will be only bad quality cars in the market Or no market at all Solutions against adverse selection • Increase observability: - Screening - Independent inspections • Signalling: - Brands (Since ……..) - Education - (online) reviews (potential problems?) • Risk pooling (collective insurances) • Risk redistribution (guarantees) • Risk segmentation (health care, zipcode, age) Moral hazard • ‘ex post’ information problem combined with a moral risk • Also called “hidden action” • Actors will make use of information advantage and profit from it Opportunistic behaviour. • Actor behaves differently as opposed to situation before/without transaction/contract. Examples: • Insurances • Manegerial incentives (bonus) • Shirking (employees, students) • People, Banks, Greece • Dentists • Politicians Moral hazard? Moral hazard? Solutions against moral hazard • Information about behavior: - Collective information sharing – Black lists - Monitoring • Incentives for good behavior: - Bonuses - Own risk premia - Discount for not using insurance (no-claim)