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Mastanduno and l<apstein
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From th is. Vlaltz derive. the hypoth eses th t 1 state will baJance again t
a prepond erant pm er. (2 ba]an es of pm r will inevita bly fonn and recur,
and .., ) bipola r or tw -po\ er sy tern \vi1l be le ··wa r-prone and more t ble
than m ltipola r ones.1
Waltz ' · contribution has been extraordi na ri l 1 in fluen tial. hapi ng th e r al i t r search agenda for almo t two d cad and in piring cholarship and
deba te on an arra , of fu ndam en tal i. ue incl udi ng the tabil ity of in tcrna­
ti nal system . th cau e of alliance , and the natu re of in t rnational theory
itself.
i the case for any ma jo r ocial cience con tnbu tion. th e theory has
also attracted con siderable critici m. 01 e ault the theory for po iting an
over1. na rr w co11ception of int rnational tructu re and for bei ng inca p ble
of e ·pla ining the all-· porta nt problem of interna tiona l S) ·tem change.19
Other poi nt ou t that \ altz pr0\1de l i ttle y tcma tic evid nee for his central
cJajm of th r u rrenc of bal an ci ng, a nd r ) jes i n.t ad on . elected i]l ustTa ­
tion that tend t con firm hi e 'pectati ons.:!0 Paul S hroeder' recent u rve..
of Eu ropea n diploma tic h i tory, for exam pl e, ca t doubt on th e em pi r ical
\ alidity of Waltz's claim .:!1
Given the centrality of \ altz' argu ment, and the obviou t mpta tion o
testi ng it in the setti ng f a u n ipo1 r ;t m, irtuall a11 of th e chapters do
o again t th av ilable evidenc con pi l d sin e the end of the Cold \Var.
e re ult i a trong ons nsu tha t neorealist balanc -of-pm er theory does
not pro ide an effective explanatio either fi r th behavior o pa rti u1a r
stat s or for their in teraction s regionally or global1 For example , John ton'
chapter nd no evidence that China i de\ eloping [4 re , to balan e the
n ited ta te , or tha t it is eking to coordinate its diplomac: \ ith possible
U. . adver a ri e in the ame way that it . ought coord ina tion again t the
SoV1et n ion during th 197 an 19 o . Rather than reduc ing its eco­
no1 ic dcp dence on the n1ted ta te
hin a is in rea ing i t. a d Chinese
behavi r in ia has ha rd ly prom pted other ta te to weaken their security
ties to th e nited ta tes. iv1ac arla nargues that the most developed pa rts
of Rus ian ooperation wi th the We t lie ·n th e real m of curity, n twith­
standing th provocati e pro pect of
TO expa n ion. Rath er than pur uc
bala ncing agai n t the nited tat s Russia 's I ader ha emphasized a ' stra­
tegic pa rtner h ip'' wi th America in wh ich Ru sia i de facto the u bord inate
pa rtner. Ru . sia ha e ·en sough t a i tanc.:e from the U n i ted tate. in d i
ma n tl ing its nuclear \ apon -hard) · the stuff of balance-of-power th eory.
Io their chapter, Heginbotham and amu 1 argue that J apan has e barked on a 1ong-term path of down izing its m i li ta ry fore , even 1ough
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