Business
Analytics
Through
Simulation and
Visualization
Agenda
• What we’ll be doing, and why it’s important
• The software we’ll use
• My expectations about what you already
know
• How we’ll proceed
• What will happen in class
• Deliverables
• Demo of the model we’ll develop together
during this 3-session sequence
• Begin work on the model
A Perfect Storm
Complexity
Uncertainty
Wait a minute!
Aren’t these
good things?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Complex global markets,
powerful global competitors,
longer supply chains,
greater geographic risk,
greater political risk,
greater economic risk,
greater operational risk,
shorter product lifecycles,
ever increasing customer
expectations,
• diminishing protective legislation,
and
• increasing regulatory burdens.
Analytic
Power
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Faster hardware,
cheaper hardware,
smarter software,
in small increments or large,
pay-as-you-go,
on any web-enabled device,
everywhere!
Data
Deluge
• IBM estimates that 2.5 exabytes
(1018 bytes) of data are created every
day – half of the data that exists was
created in the last 2 years (3 V’s).
• Data about
• customer preferences,
• customer behavior,
• customer sentiments,
• customer interests,
• where things and people are
now, where they are headed,
• who has influence (mavens),
• what people are telling others
about my products,
• about my competitor’s
products,
• …
• …all available right now – in
real time – and most of it will
be irrelevant in an hour!
A Perfect Storm
Not if your
competitors are
exploiting them
and you’re not!
Complexity
Uncertainty
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Complex global markets,
powerful global competitors,
longer supply chains,
greater geographic risk,
greater political risk,
greater economic risk,
greater operational risk,
shorter product lifecycles,
ever increasing customer
expectations,
• diminishing protective legislation,
and
• increasing regulatory burdens.
Analytic
Power
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Faster hardware,
cheaper hardware,
smarter software,
in small increments or large,
pay-as-you-go,
on any web-enabled device,
everywhere!
Data
Deluge
• IBM estimates that 2.5 exabytes
(1018 bytes) of data are created every
day – half of the data that exists was
created in the last 2 years (3 V’s).
• Data about
• customer preferences,
• customer behavior,
• customer sentiments,
• customer interests,
• where things and people are
now, where they are headed,
• who has influence (mavens),
• what people are telling others
about my products,
• about my competitor’s
products,
• …
• …all available right now – in
real time – and most of it will
be irrelevant in an hour!
A Perfect Storm
Complexity
Uncertainty
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Complex global markets,
powerful global competitors,
longer supply chains,
greater geographic risk,
greater political risk,
greater economic risk,
greater operational risk,
shorter product lifecycles,
ever increasing customer
expectations,
• diminishing protective legislation,
and
• increasing regulatory burdens.
The convergence of these forces
is creating a fundamental shift in
the job market. Increasingly,
companies are creating “Analytics
Competency Centers” and
recruiters are looking for people
to staff these centers who
combine technical skills with
business domain knowledge!
Analytic
Power
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Faster hardware,
cheaper hardware,
smarter software,
in small increments or large,
pay-as-you-go,
on any web-enabled device,
everywhere!
Data
Deluge
• IBM estimates that 2.5 exabytes
(1018 bytes) of data are created every
day – half of the data that exists was
created in the last 2 years (3 V’s).
• Data about
• customer preferences,
• customer behavior,
• customer sentiments,
• customer interests,
• where things and people are
now, where they are headed,
• who has influence (mavens),
• what people are telling others
about my products,
• about my competitor’s
products,
• …
• …all available right now – in
real time – and most of it will
be irrelevant in an hour!
A Perfect Storm
So…
Complexity
Uncertainty
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Complex global markets,
powerful global competitors,
longer supply chains,
greater geographic risk,
greater political risk,
greater economic risk,
greater operational risk,
shorter product lifecycles,
ever increasing customer
expectations,
• diminishing protective legislation,
and
• increasing regulatory burdens.
Analytic
Power
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Faster hardware,
cheaper hardware,
smarter software,
in small increments or large,
pay-as-you-go,
on any web-enabled device,
everywhere!
Data
Deluge
• IBM estimates that 2.5 exabytes
(1018 bytes) of data are created every
day – half of the data that exists was
created in the last 2 years (3 V’s).
• Data about
• customer preferences,
• customer behavior,
• customer sentiments,
• customer interests,
• where things and people are
now, where they are headed,
• who has influence (mavens),
• what people are telling others
about my products,
• about my competitor’s
products,
• …
• …all available right now – in
real time – and most of it will
be irrelevant in an hour!
…what do you need to compete for
these analytics-intensive jobs?
Domain
Knowledge
Business Analytics,
Marketing, Finance, Human
Resources,
Health Care, Financial
Services
etc.
Information
Technology
Excel PLUS Basics of
Programming,
Database Design, and
Data Manipulation
Business
Analytics
Applied
Mathematics
Probability and
Probability
Distributions,
Statistics, Sampling
We are here!
The Specific Areas of Interest in This
3-class Sequence
Domain
Knowledge
Stock Price Behavior
Logistics
Business
Analytics
Information
Technology
Applied
Mathematics
Excel and Visual Basic
for Applications
(VBA) programming
Probabilities and
Probability
Distributions
Modeling Software
• Do whatever you need to do to get access
on your PC to an Excel version that
supports VBA
• PC Users
• Excel 2010 or 2013 or 2016 (differences are minor)
• Mac Users
• Preferred: Business VDI Desktop
• Second-best: Excel For the Mac 2011 (the GUI is
different from what I will generally use in class)
My Expectations about What
You Already Know
• Basic Excel
• At the level of the material in BUAD 330, with
emphasis on
• Formulae (we’ll build on your basic skills here)
• Relative/absolute cell addressing (the $ stuff)
• Charts
• Probability and Statistics
• The basic elements of probability and statistics
from your introductory Statistics course, with
emphasis on probability and probability
distributions
• Programming
• Nothing – we’ll proceed from the very first
principles
Classroom Activities
• During this 3-session sequence, we will
develop a comprehensive simulation model
using Excel/VBA, together, in class.
• Actually, a stochastic, dynamic Monte Carlo
simulation model
• During each session, I will discuss and
demonstrate a new set of skills, and then
apply these skills to our evolving
simulation/visualization models to provide a
practical example of their use.
Classroom Activities
• My expectation is that you will attend class
and follow along with my demonstrations.
• The only way to learn these skills is to DO
them, and the classroom provides a learning
environment wherein you can attempt the skills
and receive immediate assistance from me
if/when things don’t unfold as expected.
• This is one of those skills that’s harder than it
looks. Passively watching and assuming that
you will be able to replicate the techniques later
on your own in the assignment is a formula for
disaster!
Deliverables
• There will be a team assignment due approximately
one week after we complete these 3 classes
• See your syllabus for the specific date and for details
about how this assignment will contribute to your overall
grade in the course.
• While you may request and receive assistance from
me, the work that you submit must have been created
solely by you without any physical or digital
assistance from another person outside your team or
another person in BUAD350 this semester. This
includes (but is not limited to) copying digital files or
copying code created by someone else.
To do otherwise is an Honor Code violation.
Course Materials
• No Text
• If you’d like to buy a book on the material in
this subject, I recommend “VBA For Modelers”
by S. Christian Albright, 5th Edition, but this is
NOT mandatory
• The 2nd and 3rd editions are also fine – they just use
older versions of Excel
• We’ll use Blackboard for file downloads,
and for assignment submissions and
grading.