TABLE OF CONTENTS
Cover Letter, Certificate of Service, Service List
Table of Contents
Preferred Plan
Appendix A – Compliance Matrix
Appendix B – Acronyms & Term Definitions
Appendix C – About Xcel Energy
Appendix D – Environmental Regulation & Environmental Performance
Appendix E – Renewable Energy
Appendix F – Renewable Energy Standard Rate Impact Report
Appendix G – Demand Side Management
Appendix H – Supporting Infrastructure – Transmission & Distribution
Appendix I – Forecast Methodology
Appendix J – Strategist Modeling & Outputs
Appendix K – Rate Comparison
Appendix L – Nuclear Worker Transition Plan
Please note the following appendices have been placed on the CD in the front
cover of this binder:
Appendix M – NSP Wind Integration Study
Appendix N – Demand Response Potential Study
Appendix O – Demand Response Potential – Brattle Group Study
Appendix P – Organic Conservation – Brattle Group Study
Appendix Q – 2011 DSM Potential Study – KEMA Study
Appendix R – EPRI CHP Study & DOC CARD Study
Appendix S – ND Settlement
Appendix T – NSP Annual Elec Report
NSP Annual Elec Report Supplement
Appendix U – Triennial Filing - Decommissioning
Xcel Energy
Preferred Plan List of Tables and Figures
PREFERRED PLAN LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES
Number
Title
Page #
Table 1
Reference Case Expansion Plan
15
Table 2
Preferred Plan Expansion Plan
16
Figure 1
Annual Percent Change in Revenue Requirements 2016-2030
18
Figure 2
Incremental Rate Impact of Preferred Resource Plan
19
Figure 3
Upper Midwest Energy Mix Shift
22
Table 3
Potential Generation Retirements
41
Figure 4
Historic and Forecast Peak Demand
45
Figure 5
Historic And Forecast Annual Retail Sales By Class (Losses not included)
46
Table 4
Load and Resources 2016-2030 Planning Period
55
Figure 6
Renewable Energy Standards – NSP System
56
Figure 7
Baseline RES Compliance For NSP System
58
Figure 8
Baseline SES Compliance for Minnesota
59
Table 5
Reference Case Expansion Plan
60
Figure 9
Reference Case Energy Mix - 2030
60
Table 6
Preferred Plan Resource Additions
68
Figure 10
Energy Mix – Preferred Plan
69
Table 7
PVSC Results
84
Table 8
PVSC Rankings
84
Table 9
PVRR Results
85
Table 10
PVRR Rankings
86
Table 11
Run Key
88
Figure 11
PVRR Impact Above Reference Case
90
Figure 12
Annual Percent Change in Revenue Requirements 2016 -2030
95
Table 12
Approved E8760 Energy Allocator
96
Table 13
Stratification Analysis by Plant Type
97
Table 14
Approved D10S Capacity Allocator
97
Table 15
Estimated Incremental Impact – Preferred Plan
98
Figure 13
Incremental Rate Impact of Preferred Resource Plan
State of Minnesota – All Customers
99
Figure 14
Incremental Rate Impact of Preferred Resource Plan by Customer Class –
State of Minnesota
100
2016-2030 Upper Midwest Resource Plan
Xcel Energy
2016-2030 Upper Midwest Resource Plan
List of Appendix Tables and Figures
APPENDICES LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES
Appendix C: About Xcel Energy
Number
Figure 1
Figure 2
Name
Xcel Energy Territory and Operating Companies
NSP System Generation Resources
Page #
1
2
Appendix D: Environmental Regulation and Environmental Performance
Number
Figure 1
Table 1
Table 2
Table 3
Table 4
Table 5
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Table 6
Figure 9
Name
Reasonably Foreseeable Environmental Regulations Affecting NSP
System Generation Facilities
Interim and Final Goals for NSP System States in the EPA’s Proposed
111(d) Rule
Estimated GHG Regulatory Timeline
Estimated PM Regulatory Timeline
Estimated Ozone Regulatory Timeline
Estimated NO2 Regulatory Timeline
Global Carbon Prices (US dollars per metric ton of CO2) as of
September 2014
CO2 emissions from owned and purchased power, Northern States
Power Company, 2005 to 2013
NSP CO2 emissions from owned and purchased power, under
Reference Case and Preferred Plan
NSP CO2 Emissions from Owned and Purchased Power 2005 through
2013
NSP System Electricity Supply by Fuel Type Actual for 2013; 2020 and
2030 under the Preferred Plan
NSP CO2 reductions by source, 2005-2030
NSP Emissions of NOx and SO2, 2005 to 2020
Efficiency, Control and Retirement Projects on NSP System-Owned
Generation Facilities as of 2013
NSP Water Supply and Usage
Page #
3
9
10
13
15
16
36
43
44
54
54
55
56
57
59
Xcel Energy
2016-2030 Upper Midwest Resource Plan
List of Appendix Tables and Figures
Appendix E: Renewable Energy
Number
Figure 1
Table 1
Figure 2
Table 2
Figure 3
Table 3
Figure 4
Table 4
Figure 4
Table 5
Name
Upper Midwest Energy Mix, 2013
NSP System Wind Projects
Baseline RES Compliance for NSP System
Compliance with Renewable Energy Standards, Base Case
RES Compliance for NSP System, Preferred Plan
Compliance with Renewable Energy Standards, Preferred Plan
SES Compliance for Minnesota, Base Case
Solar Base Case
SES Compliance for Minnesota, Preferred Plan
Expanded Solar, Preferred Plan
Page #
1
3
12
12
13
13
14
14
15
15
Appendix F: Renewable Energy Standard (RES) Rate Impact Report
Number
Table 1
Table 2
Table 3
Table 4
Table 5
Table 6
Table 7
Table 8
Table 9
Table 10
Table 11
Name
Annualized Historic RES Rate Impacts (2005-2013)
Annualized Future RES Rate Impacts (2014-2022)
Annualized Future RES Rate Impacts (2023-2030)
Annualized Future SES Rate Impacts (2014-2022)
Annualized Future SES Rate Impacts (2023-2030)
Levelized RES Rate Impacts
Levelized SES Rate Impacts
Transmission Projects Attributable to the RES
Transmission Project Costs Attributable to the RES
(70% of MPV Project Annual Revenue Requirements Assigned to RES)
MISO Data Used in RES Avoided Energy and Capacity Calculations
MISO Data Used in SES Avoided Energy and Capacity Calculations
Page #
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
15
Appendix G: Demand Side Management
Number
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Table 1
Table 2
Table 3
Table 4
Figure 4
Table 5
Name
Historical DSM Achievements 2007-2013
Declining Cost-Benefits of DSM
Total Energy Savings Achieved in Lighting
2016-2021 Average Percent of Sales by Scenario
GWh Goals by Scenario
Scenario Benefits – Net Benefits ($ millions)
Recommended DSM Goals
Comparison of Scenario Results
Cumulative DR MW – 2010 Resource Plan Compared to 2015
Resource Plan
Page #
2
4
7
11
11
13
14
19
21
Xcel Energy
2016-2030 Upper Midwest Resource Plan
List of Appendix Tables and Figures
Appendix H: Supporting Infrastructure – Transmission and Distribution
Number
Figure 1
Table 1
Figure 2
Name
Annual Distribution System Planning Process
Summary of DG Interconnection Applications
Historic Reliability Data
Page #
14
15
17
Appendix I: Forecast Methodology
Number
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Table 1
Table 2
Table 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Name
NSP System Total Median Net Energy (MWh)
NSP System Median Base Summer Peak Demand (MW)
Illustration of DSM Adjustment
Annual Net Energy (MWh)
Annual Base Summer Peak Demand (MW)
Annual Net Peak Demand (MW)
NSP System Total Net Energy (MWh)
NSP System Total Base Summer Peak Demand (MW)
NSP System Total Net Summer Peak Demand (MW)
Net Energy Requirements (MWh) Median (50th Percentile) Forecast
Comparison of Current and Previous Energy Forecasts
Base Peak Demand (MW) 50th Percentile Forecast Comparison of
Current and Previous Demand Forecasts
Page #
2
3
7
9
10
11
12
13
14
16
17
Appendix J: Strategist Modeling and Outputs
Number
Table 1
Table 2
Figure 1
Table 3
Table 4
Figure 2
Figure 3
Table 5
Figure 4
Table 6
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Name
Capital Structure
Reserve Margin
CO2 Sensitivity Prices
Externality Prices
Demand and Energy Forecast
High and Low Energy Sensitivities
High and Low Demand Sensitivities
Base DSM Forecast (with 1.5 percent scenario beginning 2016)
DSM Scenarios Evaluated
Load Management Forecast
Demand Response Scenarios
Ventura Gas Price Forecast and Sensitivities
Average On and Off Peak Market Price- No CO2
Coal Price Forecast
Page #
6
7
8
8
9
9
10
11
11
12
12
13
14
15
Xcel Energy
Table 7
Table 8
Table 9
Table 10
Table 11
Table 12
Table 13
Table 14
Table 15
Figure 9
Figure 10
Figure 11
Figure 12
Table 16
Table 17
Table 18
Table 19
Table 20
Table 21
Table 22
Table 23
Table 24
Table 25
2016-2030 Upper Midwest Resource Plan
List of Appendix Tables and Figures
Surplus Capacity Credit
Transmission Delivery Costs
Wind Integration Costs
Thermal Owned Unit Information
Thermal PPA Information
Owned and PPA Renewable Information
Thermal Generic Information (Costs in 2014 Dollars)
Renewable Generic Information (Costs in 2014 Dollars)
Renewable Generic ECC Costs
Intermediate Dispatch Range Combined Cycles
Baseload
Intermediate Dispatch Range
Peaking
Renewable Pricing ($/MWh)
Distributed Solar Additions (AC MW), Base Case
Distributed Solar Additions (AC MW), Preferred Plan
2016-2030 Resource Plan Modeling Scenario Summary
2016-2030 Resource Plan Modeling Sensitivity Summary
PVSC/PVRR Total ($M) for all Scenarios, Sensitivities A-O
PVSC/PVRR Total ($M) for all Scenarios, Sensitivities P-BT
2013 FERC Heat Rates
Heat Rate Tests – 2010-2014
Load and Resources Tables, 2016-2030 Planning Period
15
16
18
19
21
23-24
26
26
26
28
29
30
30
33
35
36
37
39
40
41
42
43
45
Appendix L: Nuclear Worker Transition Plan
Number
Table 1
Name
Nuclear Employee Breakdown
Page #
3