Part IV:
Poster Sessions Abstracts
Preparing for Climate Variability & Change on the Canadian Prairies
Severity of Climate in the Arctic and
Its Impact on Caribou
Abdel Maarouf, Environment Canada, Downsview
Anne Gunn, Renewable Resources, NWT, Yellowknife
Forty years of selected climatic variables have been analyzed to determine winter and summer conditions favourable to caribou in three climatic regions of the Arctic. Years of relatively dry summer and
wet winter may have had serious impacts on caribou due to shortage of forage. Freezing rain and
snowfall show increasing trends over the study period. The results could be used with other environmental and biological factors to study the implications for caribou and other wildlife in the Arctic.
Circumpolar Ecosystems in Winter. Churchill, Manitoba, Feb. 1992.
Climate and Western Equine Encephalitis in
Manitoba, Minnesota and North Dakota
Robert Sellers, Agriculture Canada, Ottawa
Abdel Maarouf, Environment Canada, Downsview
Information was collected on confirmed outbreaks of western equine encephalitis (WEE) in North
America east of the Rockies for 1980-1983. Backward wind trajectories were computed for each day,
4-15 days (incubation period) before the initial outbreaks of WEE. It is suggested that Culex tarsalis
mosquitoes infected with WEE virus are carried out on the wind from Texas to Oklahoma in the spring.
In summer C. tarsalis are carried further north on warm southerly winds through Kansas and Nebraska to North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Manitoba. Landing takes place where the warm
southerly winds meet cold fronts associated with rain.
Epidem. Inf. (1988), 101, 511-535
Preparing for Climate Variability & Change on the Canadian Prairies
Climate Change in Alberta, Canada:
Response of Drought and Agroclimatic Indices
S.M. McGinn, O.O. Akinremi, D.J. Major and A. Tour;
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Research Centre,
P. O. Box 3000, Lethbridge, AB. T1J 4B1
A.G. Barr, National Hydrology Research Centre,
Atmospheric Environment Service, 11 Innovation Boulevard, Saskatoon SK. S7H 3H5.
Problem: In the Canadian prairies, drought is a recurring weather anomaly that adversely affects
agriculture and its supporting sectors. The changes to the prairie environment resulting from climate
change, including the occurrence and intensity of drought, would have a dramatic impact on the type
of agriculture possible in this region. The objective of our study was to estimate the impact of climate
change on characteristics of drought and agroclimatic indices that influence cereal agriculture in
Alberta, Canada.
Literature Review: Previous climate change scenarios for a doubling of carbon dioxide predicted a 3
to 7oC increase in surface temperature and between 7 to 32% increase in precipitation in Alberta
(Wong et al., 1989). A similar study in Saskatchewan, showed an increase of mean surface temperature of 4.7oC and an increase in precipitation of 18% (Stewart, 1991). Saunders and Byrne (1994)
examined the output from the Canadian Climate Centre Global Circulation Model (CCC-GCM) for a
doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide and found a 5 to 7oC rise in surface temperature and a 15%
increase in precipitation across the Canadian prairie provinces. Climate change on the Canadian
prairies was predicted to cause a lengthening of the crop growing season by 5 to 15% and a reduction
in soil water due to increased evaporation, leading to a 6 to 15% decrease in crop yield (Stewart,
1991). Climate change was also predicted to cause an increase in the frequency of drought in the
semi-arid regions of the prairies (Williams et al., 1988; Stewart, 1991).Strategies for adapting regional
agriculture to climate change, as discussed by Parry (1990), require an examination of climate change
impact on regional agroclimatic indices.
Study Description: Two climate change scenarios were developed using output from CCC-GCM to
modify the historic time series. Scenario 2 Incorporates the changes in both temperature and precipitation accompanying climate change, using a modified version of the equation given by Mearns et al.
(1992). A second scenario was generated by combining the historic precipitation with the increase in
temperature simulated by the CCC-GCM. This scenario was considered as a ?worst? case as it
reflected a warmer and drier climate than scenario 1. Several agroclimatic indices were generated
including Thornthwaite?s Precipitation Effectiveness index (Thornthwaite, 1931), Growing Degree Day,
Seeding Date, Harvest Date, and Aridity Index. A hydrometeorological model was used to estimate
changes in drought due to climatic change.
Major Findings: Results show that the semi-arid climate class increased in area only when temperature increases were not accompanied by an increase in precipitation. Seeding date for spring wheat
advanced by 10-28 days while harvest date advanced by 22-37 days. Growing degree days (GDD),
defined as the accumulated mean temperature above a 5oC threshold, increased by 650-950 across
the province, with most regions showing 50% increase in GDD. The impact of climate change on
Preparing for Climate Variability & Change on the Canadian Prairies
aridity was small for the scenarios in our study. When climate change was based on increases in both
precipitation and temperature, drought frequency and duration decreased. Our results indicated no
major change in the impact of drought on agriculture in Alberta due to climate change. The increase
demand for water by crops was compensated by an increase in precipitation and a shift to earlier
seeding dates. The critical crop development stages were completed before severe plant water
stress could develop.
Preparing for Climate Variability & Change on the Canadian Prairies
Factor Biases and Promoting Sustainable
Development: Adaptation to Drought in the
Senegal River Basin
Henry D. Venema, Acres International
Eric J. Schiller, University of Ottawa, Department of Civil Engineering.
Brad Bass, Environmental Adaptation Research Group, Atmospheric Environment Service
ABSTRACT:
The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the
sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation
in the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that
define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment.
These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production,
or the factor biases in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One policy is based on
state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice for the capital Dakar. This policy emphasizes a
top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which
strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period.
A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the
water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy’s food production system is
not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty.
A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized
management and a reduction of extemal inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués” emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional sociopolitical
structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agroforestry projects to
redress the primary effects of desertification.
The water requirements of both the rice import substitution program and the natural resource
management program are calculated. A water resources simulation model/optimization analysis using
dynamic programming, is used to compare these two alternatives to the rice import substitution programs. Results indicate that the natural resource management policy could potentially bring a large
area of the basin into production while using far less water than the rice import substitution program.
The natural resource management policy, in particular the second alternative with its emphasis individual ownership and ecological rehabilitation, defines a different set of social and ecological relationships that appear to enhance the sustainability of food production, and thus the capacity to adapt, to a
long-term drought.
In Press, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Preparing for Climate Variability & Change on the Canadian Prairies
Developing Economic Parameters for
Alberta Agriculture
Component 6 of the Nat Christie Foundation Programme: The Impacts of Climate Variability on
Agricultural Sustainability in Alberta
Bernd Ebel, The University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, AB
Quentin Chiotti, EARG, IES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON
Judith Kulig, The University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, AB
Allan Walburger, The University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, AB
Introduction: The principal purpose of this project is to widen the perspective of the climate change agricultural impacts relationship by considering a number of factors that interact and evolve over time
to determine the competitive position of Alberta agriculture in the future. Most studies have estimated
impacts by applying future conditions of climate upon existing agricultural systems and methods of
production. A knowledge gap clearly exists in our understanding of what the economic, technical and
policy environment for agriculture might be 50 years from now, in the absence of climate change.
The study will: (i) consider changes in supply and demand at various spatial scales; (ii) develop a
scenario of future demand, based upon projected changes in population, per capita income and
consumption patterns; (iii) situate Alberta agriculture in the context of global trade and emerging
markets; (iv) incorporate changes in government policy and deregulation; and (v) take into account
changes in nutrition and tastes.
Research Methodology: This study began in September, 1994, and runs until December, 1996. The
scenario approach combines quantitative and qualitative methods. Most of the work is still in
progress.
Phase I: Workshop A workshop was organized in January, 1994, which brought together
stakeholders from the research, policy and agricultural community. Designed to assist us in the development of economic parameters, the workshop focused on 5 major topics: domestic supply, global
supply, agricultural policy, demand, and tastes and nutritional patterns.
Phase II: Development of Economic Parameters A quantitative model (GTAP) is being applied and
adopted to generate scenarios of future global supply and demand conditions. Using UN and World
Bank statistics, population increases and changes in per capita income will enable us to estimate
future demand. The contrasting positions of the World Band and the Worldwatch Institute are used as
starting points for developing supply-side scenarios.
Phase III: Qualitative Assessments This phase draws upon previously published research. This will
involve case studies on major competitors, as well as major markets for Alberta agriculture; in particular the United States and countries in the Pacific Rim. Assessments of new markets will also include
the impact of changing tastes and nutritional patterns. Changes in government policy and the implications for Alberta agriculture will also be outlined (e.g. impacts from the deregulation of the WGTA, and
branch line abandonment).
Preparing for Climate Variability & Change on the Canadian Prairies
The Farm Adaptation and Sustainability
Project
Component 9 of the Nat Christie Foundation Programme: The Impacts of Climate Variability on
Agricultural Sustainability in Alberta
Tom Johnston, The University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, AB
Quentin Chiotti, EARG, IES, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON
Barry Smit, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON
Bernd Ebel, The University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, AB
Introduction: The aim of this project is to identify key sensitivities and response functions of agriculture to climate at the individual farm level. Focusing on southern Alberta’s three dominant farming
systems -- dryland grain farming, irrigated crop production, and intensive beef feedlot operations -- it
seeks to learn from the actual experience of farm operators the ways that decisions in land management and other adaptations on the farm are influenced by variation in climatic conditions.
The study will: (i) investigate how climate interacts with other factors known to affect agriculture, e.g.
the marketplace, government policy, etc.; (ii) identify specific climatic variables to which farms are
especially sensitive; (iii) determine if there are thresholds beyond which climatic factors become more
or less important; and (iv) determine if any synergistic effects exist.
Research Methodology: The empirical research was carried out in the spring and summer of 1994.
Analysis of the results are still in progress.
Phase I: Workshop A workshop was organized in December, 1993, which brought together 17
stakeholders from the research, policy and agricultural community. Designed to assist us in the development of Phase II and Phase III of the project, the workshop focused on 5 major topics: macro
parameters and impacts upon southern Alberta; government policies and adjustment; reactions and
responses: focus on the farm unit and its external linkages; reactions and responses: focus on the
farm unit and its internal adjustments; change and adjustment as a “way of life”.
Phase II: Farm Interviews With the assistance of local informants, we identified 50 farmers in the
County of Lethbridge, County of Vulcan, and the Municipal District of Taber, representing each of the
three major farming systems in southern Alberta. Using a qualitative “life history” approach, we interviewed 38 farmers, covering a wide range of topics, including: farm history, past and future challenges, climatic sensitivities, recent changes on the farm (land and farm management responses),
and the role of climate in their decision making.
Phase III: Detailed Questionnaire Using land ownership county maps, 300 farmers were randomly
selected and asked by telephone if they would participate in our study. 200 of these farmers agreed to
received a detailed questionnaire; the eventual response rate was 25%. The survey focused on farm
changes and decision making between 1988 and 1993. Farmers were asked to identify 3 specific
changes in land management practices, product mix, structural change, and marketing channels, and
then select from a variety of environmental, social and policy factors which influenced their decisions.
Preparing for Climate Variability & Change on the Canadian Prairies
Climate, Thermoregulation and Biogeography
of Grasshoppers
Derek J. Lactin and Dan L. Johnson
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Land Resource Sciences, Research Centre
Introduction: Body temperature (Tb) affects numerous ecologically processes of insects and other
ectothermic animals; examples include feeding, development, fecundity, mortality. Many insects alter
their body temperature through behavioural responses to microclimatic heterogeneity.
Detailed understanding of the mechanisms by which Tb is determined will improve descriptions and
predictions of population processes and pest damage potential. One objective is to predict the expected impact of climate change on geographic distributions of insect activity, and the occurrence of
large-scale pest outbreaks.
Convection is the main source of heat loss by insects, while radiation (chiefly solar) is their main
source of energy gain. Constant Tb occurs when the two processes balance.
We illustrate development of a simple model of behavioural thermoregulation by the migratory grasshopper, Melanoplus sanguinipes, in which Tb is modelled by calculating convection and radiation rates,
and solving for equilibrium Tb .
Model Outline:
•
•
•
•
•
Wind and air temperature are measured 1 m above the ground. Values at lower heights are
estimated empirically.
Assumption: insects’ behavioural responses result in T b as close as possible to a ‘target value’ of
38.5oC, i.e., the optimum for feeding. Insects ‘accept’ Tb with 2oC of the target (~ 1 standard
deviation).
They either move vertically within the wind and temperature gradients (canopy ht 30 cm) or
alter their orientation to the sun (modifying energy interception).
Vertical movements are in increments of 0.2 body lengths; orientation increments are 5o. Both
increments are arbitrary.
Simulation conditions: Air temperature at 1 m: 10 - 42 oC by 2o; Wind 0 - 5 m·s-1 by 1 m·s-1; Solar
Radiation 300, 500, and 800 W·m-2. Five simulated ‘insects’ were followed at each combination;
these started at heights of 0 - 0.2 m by 0.05 m. Insect mass was 0.16 g, typical of mid-summer
immature stages of this species. Plotted model output is the mean final Tb of the five.
Preparing for Climate Variability & Change on the Canadian Prairies
Model Output:
•
Tb is maintained within 2oC of the ‘target’ over a large range of air temperatures, primarily
because the insect’s height above the ground changes. Increasing wind speed has little effect,
because insect responses result in lower heights as wind increases.
•
Modelled Tb exceeded air temperature at 1 m by 15oC. Clearly, air temperature at 1 m is not an
appropriate estimate of Tb.
•
Field data are in agreement with the model.
•
Further simulations are planned, to assess effects of climate change and thermoregulation on
M. sanguinipes phenology and biogeography.
Preparing for Climate Variability & Change on the Canadian Prairies
Beyond the Year 2000, More Tornadoes in
Western Canada?
Implications from the Historical Record.
David A. Etkin
Atmospheric Environment Service, Environment Canada
Tornadoes in western Canada from 1980 to 1992 show a significantly different temporal pattern than
the 1951-1979 period, occurring on average 11 days earlier.
The change in the monthly pattern of tornado occurrence correlates well with mean monthly temperature anomalies, suggesting that tornado frequency is physically related to mean monthly temperatures
TORNADO FREQUENCY INCREASES (DECREASES)
WITH POSITIVE (NEGATIVE)
MEAN MONTHLY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES.
As a result of this analysis, it is reasonable to speculate that tornado frequency might well increase
with climate warming.
Journal of Natural Hazards 12: 19-27, 1995
Preparing for Climate Variability & Change on the Canadian Prairies
“Industrial Age” Ground Warming Versus
Surface Air Warming in the Canadian
Prairie Provinces
Jacek A. Majorowicz, Northern Geothermal Consult.
105 Carlson Close, Edmonton, AB, T6R 2J8
and Walter R. Skinner
Climate Research Branch, Environment Canada
4905 Dufferin Street, Downsview, ON M3H 5T4
The results of modelling of precise temperature logs made to depth of us to 300 m in 80 wells in
the Canadian Prairie Provinces in the southern margin of discontinuous permafrost (Fig. 1) show
evidence of warming at the ground surface (GST) of 2.1 K (S.D. = 0.9 K). The GST warming causes
observable anomalous curvature in temperature - depth profiles in the upper 70 - 110 m indicating that
the warming pertains to the second half of this century (Majorowicz, 1996). Surface air temperature
warming (SAT) is only 1.5 K (S.D. = 0.4 K) for the same time interval (Fig. 2).
For a subregion that includes the province of Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan, a statistically significant spatial correlation exists (r=0.75) between the SAT and GST over the last four decades (1950 - 1990). While similar spatial patterns of warming have occurred, the difference between
GST and SAT warming is close to 40 percent in the boreal forest ecozone and less than 10 percent in
the grassland - aspen parkland ecozone (Majorowicz and Skinner, 1996). Differences are due to the
limited number of compatible data sets and also to land surface changes affecting the energy balance
and subsurface net heat flow. The influence of these effects require further study.
References:
Majorowicz, J. A. (1996) Pure Appl. Geophys., 147, 23 pp.
Majorowicz, J. A. and W. R. Skinner , Climatic Change (submitted)
Skinner, W. R. and D. W. Gullet (1993) Bull. Climate., 27, (2), 63-77.
Figure 1: Distribution of 80 well sites in which temperatures (precision: 0.01 K, accuracy: 0.03 K) were
recorded in western Canada.
Figure 2: Histograms of GST and SAT warming in the last four decades for the area north and south
of 53.5o for the 80 well sites.
Preparing for Climate Variability & Change on the Canadian Prairies
Adaptation for a Prosperous Future in
Agriculture: The Climate Change Case
Quentin Chiotti, Environmental Adaptation Research Group
Institute for Environmental Studies
University of Toronto
The strong likelihood of some global warming, along with other volatile factors such as international
markets, seems certain to bring major changes to Canadian agriculture. Historically, Canadian agriculture has successfully adapted to many changing conditions including climate extremes, government programs, international markets and social values, to name a few. Adapting to new conditions,
however, is not always at low cost or achieved efficiently. Major disruptions can occur, especially if we
are not sufficiently prepared. With increasing stress from such pressures, farmers face a very different future ‘environment’ within which they will operate. A preliminary review of the role and importance
of adaptation for agriculture will be helpful in ensuring a critical assessment of adaptation options.
Figure 1: Relative Benefits and Costs Between Mitigation and Adaptive Actions
•
Benefits to Canada from Adaptation are potentially large for damage reduction and capitalizing
upon new opportunities; probably low if taken early or in anticipation; probably high if left too
long.
Figure 2: Impacts and Benefits of Climate Change
•
Impacts: more severe droughts and increased frequency; new pest infestations from the south;
reductions in productivity; increased demand for agricultural support; adverse effects on Canada
from impacts overseas.
•
Benefits: CO2 enrichment; longer growing season and navigation season; expansion of
agriculture into some northern regions; lower energy costs for heating; new overseas markets
resulting from adverse impacts elsewhere.
Figure 3: Government Payments to Farmers Directly Related to Climatic Variability, 1972-1992
•
Federal payments totalled $5 billion, or an average of $250 million per year, representing a
significant modification of economic implications of climate risks in agriculture.
Figure 4: Estimated Costs of Adaptation in Agriculture to Canada’s Climate and Trends Under Climate
Change (1991)
•
Living in the Canadian climate often has higher costs associated with it than most people realize.
In agriculture an average of $1.32 billion is estimated to be spend each year on crop insurance,
irrigation, research and the like as a direct result of variations in the climatic environment.
Preparing for Climate Variability & Change on the Canadian Prairies
Figure 5: Potential Impact of Climate Change on Canadian Agriculture: Assuming no Adaptation
•
Assuming no adaptation, climate change scenarios have predicted significant costs for
agriculture throughout central and western Canada. Successful adaptation to a changing
climate could minimize the costs of impacts and improve agriculture’s capacity to capitalize upon
new opportunities.
Figure 6: Seven Reasons to Adapt Now
•
1. Climate change cannot be totally avoided. We are already committed to some change.
2. Anticipatory and precautionary adaptation is more effective and less costly than forced, last
minute, emergency adaptation.
3. Climate change may be more rapid and more pronounced than current estimates suggest.
There is a possibility of nasty surprises.
4. There are immediate benefits to be gained from better adaptation to climate variability and
extreme atmospheric events.
5. There are immediate benefits to be gained by the removal of maladaptive policies and
practices.
6. Climate change brings opportunities as well as threats. There are future benefits to be gained
from climate change.
7. According to the forthcoming IPCC report, climate is already changing, due to anthropogenic
activity.
Figure 7: Possible Types of Adaptation
•
There are many possible types of adaptations, involving adjustments at both the farm-level and
policy-level. Farm-level adaptations include a variety of land management adjustments,
whereas policy-level adaptations include changes in the area of education and economics, land
use, water, energy and research.
Figure 8: Actions Needed
•
Many actions are needed to ensure a prosperous future for Canadian agriculture. These
include, amongst others: (i) an integrated national assessment of climate impacts; (ii)
stakeholder involvement; and (iii) a policy review to examine policies for: reducing vulnerabilities,
capitalizing on opportunities, and ensuring sustainability and a prosperous future under climate
change and variability.
Preparing for Climate Variability & Change on the Canadian Prairies
Developing Climatic Adaptation Programs
for Canadian Prairie Sustainability
E. Wheaton, Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan;
Ken Jones, Environment Canada, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan; and
V. Wittrock, Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan
Climate is very closely linked with the environment, society and the economy of the Canadian
Prairies. Year to year variations and longer term climatic changes are associated with variations in
many sectors, both economic and environmental. Climatic risks through events such as droughts
result in crop yield losses, soil erosion, water supply problems, forest fire increases, and habitat reduction. Overabundance of precipitation can also have both negative effects and benefits, depending on
amounts and timing. Risks are emphasized as they are often more difficult to plan for and to cope
with than benefits.
The purpose of this paper is to provide the background and initial directions for climatic programs for sustainable development in the Canadian Prairies. The goal is to harmonize human activities with the prairie climate so that climatic risks to sustainability are minimized, and climatic benefits
are maximized. In other words, the goal is climatic adaptation. Sustainability assessment and planning must consider the nature, impacts of and adaptation to climate. A plan without this would not
ensure sustainability. Strategies to ensure sustainability differ from one climate to another. For
example, farm management that would be sustainable under one climate type may result in accelerated wind erosion, for example, in another climate.
The study area is the Canadian Provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, termed the
Prairie Provinces or Prairies. This area is considered as a focus of effort in the climatic impact and
adaptation assessment field for several reasons including:
•
the importance of the agriculture to this area, to Canada, and to the world (e.g. Williams et al.
1988). Prairie agriculture is strongly linked with weather and climate;
*
the constraint of soil limitations to northward shifts of agriculture and natural vegetation as
climatic zones shift (Williams et al. 1988). This constraint is especially apparent for
Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
*
the area’s sensitivity and vulnerability to drought and other climatic events known to cause
severe environmental, economic and social effects (e.g. the 1988 drought impacts documented
in Wheaton and Arthur (1989) and Wheaton et al. (1992));
*
many climatic hazards are common in this area, including drought, dust storms, floods, hail
storms, wind storms, tornados, frost, blizzards, thunderstorms, icing storms, hot and cold spells;
*
high latitude mid continental regions, such as the Prairies, are expected to experience the
largest climatic changes under continued future global warming (IPCC 1990); and
*
the greatest warming trend in Canada in the past century has occurred in a broad corridor from
the Prairie Provinces northward into the Mackenzie District (Gullet and Skinner 1992).
Several Prairie climatic change impact assessment projects have been completed and are
listed in the bibliography by Wheaton (1994). This paper draws on examples of the Environment
Canada and Saskatchewan Research Council work . The most recent work focused on biodiversity
and atmospheric change and on integrated impact assessments. Earlier work examined the impacts
of climatic variations on agriculture, based on a case study of Saskatchewan (Williams et al. 1988). It
was part of a large international study regarding assessments in cool temperate and cold regions of
the world. It established some of the methodologies to estimate climatic change impacts and the
work provided some of the earliest warnings of such impacts related to global warming.
Preparing for Climate Variability & Change on the Canadian Prairies
Very few climatic change assessment projects have included adaptation components, except
those by Williams et al (1988), for example. Therefore, it appears that climatic adaptation assessments for the Prairies are very limited and scarce. This is an important knowledge gap. It seems that
effort has concentrated on improving agricultural production and yields, often at the expense of protection through improved adaptation to climatic challenges.
Method used for climatic impact and adaptation assessment are presented. These include the
use of: models and sets of models; expert judgement; and the use of qualitative frameworks such as
matrices, especially for integrated assessments.
Results of climatic change impact assessments are summarized. They indicate the sensitivity
and inter-relationships of climate, the environment and economy. Many of these are qualitative results
only, and quantitative sensitivities, of linkages are not fully known in many instances. This leaves a
significant gap for future work.
Climatic events , such as droughts, frosts, wind storms, and floods are major challenges to
sustainability in the Prairie Provinces. Improved adaptation strategies are required so that prairie
sustainability is not further jeopardized under future climatic variation and change. We conclude that
if society has and effectively uses information about the dynamic nature of climate and its interactions,
we will be able to decrease our vulnerability and increase benefits from changing climates. This is our
vision for this aspect of a sustainable future.
Recommendations include the development of a climate mitigation and adaptation network,
working groups and climate programs. These mechanisms are clearly needed to address the question of prairie sustainability faced with an uncertain climate. The knowledge gaps regarding climatic
impacts, interactions and adaptations are numerous and have serious implications. Goals for a sustainable future, as confronted by climatic variations, must be developed. Then a portfolio of adaptive
strategies must be developed and tested in order to achieve these goals.
Acknowledgements
This poster paper was originally developed as an invited presentation to the Symposium “Planning for
a Sustainable Future: The Case of the North American Great Plains”, May 8-10, 1995 Lincoln, Nebraska. It appears in that proceedings.
References
Gullet, D.W. and W.R. Skinner. 1992. A State of the Environment Report - The State of Canada’s Climate: Temperature
Change in Canada 1896-1991. Environment Canada SOE Report No 92-2. 35 pps.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 1990. Potential Impact of Climate Change. Prepared by Working
Group II: Yu.A. Izrael, M. Hashimoto, and W.J. McG.Tegart (Chairs). Government Publishing Service, Canberra, Australia.
Wheaton, E.E. and L.M. Arthur. (Eds) 1989. Environmental and economic Impacts of the 1988 Drought - with emphasis on
Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Volume 1. Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC) Pub. No. E-2330-4-E-89. Prepared for
the Drought 1988 Steering Committee. SRC, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. 362 pps.
Wheaton, E.E. , L.M. Arthur , B.Chorney, S. Shewchuk, J. Thorpe, J. Whiting and V. Wittrock. 1992. “The Prairie Drought of
1988.” Climatological Bulletin 26(3):188-205.
Wheaton, E.E. 1994. Impacts of a Variable and Changing Climate on the Canadian Prairie Provinces: A Preliminary Integration and Annotated Bibliography. Prepared for the Canadian Climate Centre, Environment Canada. Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC) Pub. No. E-2900-7-E-93. SRC, Saskatoon, SK.
Williams, G.D.V., R.A. Fautley, K.H. Jones, R.B. Stewart and E.E. Wheaton. 1988. “Estimating Effects of Climatic Change
on Agriculture in Saskatchewan, Canada.” In: Parry, M.L., T.R. Carter, N.T. Konijn. (Eds) 1988. The Impact of Climatic
Variations on Agriculture Volume 1: Assessments in Cool Temperate and Cold Regions. Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Dordrecht, The Netherlands. Pp. 219-379.
Preparing for Climate Variability & Change on the Canadian Prairies
The Canada Country Study: Climate Change
Impacts and Adaptation
Ian Burton
Environmental Adaptation Research Group
A two-phase program is proposed to implement the Canada Country Study. Phase I will attempt to:
•
determine “where we are now” by synthesizing existing impacts and adaptation research for
particular regions and climate-sensitive sectors, and
•
build regional stakeholder involvement.
These components will be integrated into a national assessment. Building upon the component studies, national syntheses, and consultative workshops, Phase II will address knowledge gaps and establish new directions for research. The outcome of the Country Study is to provide information for provincial, national and sectoral policy development with respect to climate variability and change.
Anomalous Ground Warming Versus Surface
Air Warming in the Canadian Prairie Provinces
Jacek Majorwocz, Northern Geothermal
Walter Skinner, Environment Canada, Climate Research Branch
Results of temperature logs made to depths of up to 300 m in 80 well-sites in the Canadian Prairie
provinces (mostly in Alberta) show evidence of average warming at the ground surface (GST) of
2.1oC, with a standard deviation of 0.9oC. The ground surface temperature (GST) warming is recent
and pertains to the second half of this century. For a sub-region that includes the province of Alberta
and southwestern Saskatchewan, a statistically significant spatial correlation exists (r = 0.75) between
the warming of the atmosphere (SAT - surface air temperature warming measured at screen level 1.5
m) and the ground near the surface (GST) over the last four decades (1950 - 1990). While similar
spatial patterns of warming have occurred, the GST warming is approximately 40% larger than the
SAT warming in the boreal forest ecozone of this sub-region. Differences are due to the limited
number of compatible data sets and also to land surface changes affecting the energy balance and
subsurface net heat flux. The influence of these effects requires further study.
Preparing for Climate Variability & Change on the Canadian Prairies
4000+ yr High-Resolution Proxy Stream
Discharge Record from the Northern
Margin of the North American Great Plains
Celina Campbell, Department of Geography, University of Alberta
Ian D. Campbell, Canadian Forest Service
Changes in stream discharge (a function of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage) for the past 4000+ years are reflected in a high resolution record of lake sediment grain size in
the northern margin for the North American Great Plains. the climate of the Dust Bowl era is more
typical of this region than is any other historic climate period. Future climate change can be expected
to result in severe aridity unprecedented in the instrumental record.
Mackenzie Basin Impact Study
Stewart Cohen
Sustainable Development Research Institute,
University of British Columbia
The Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) is an integrated regional impact assessment of climate
change scenarios. The study uses an interdisciplinary research approach to determine “What if?”
Several “What ifs?” have been identified.
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water: less runoff, lower levels, earlier peak, less ice
permafrost: thaw and landslides
vegetation: higher growth rates, more fire and insects
wildlife: winners and losers?
economy: changed potential for forestry, tourism, energy, agriculture, non-wage economy?
infrastructure: shorter winter road season
communities: affected by all of the above
The MBIS also collaborates with regional stakeholders to determine “So What?” and “What should be
done?”. Stakeholders are asked, “Given the MBIS climate change impact scenario, what is your view
of the future, if there is no proactive response to climate change?” The stakeholders are also asked,
“What responses to this scenario should be made in the region?”. Scenarios for “So What?” are:
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changing water levels -- implications for the Peace-Athabasca Delta
changing land capabilities -- implications for current resource users
changing fire seasons -- implications for fire management
renewable resource impacts and non-renewable resource development.
The Mackenzie Basin Impact Study final workshop will examine results of studies from MBIS and other
relevant programs and have round table discussions with stakeholders.
Preparing for Climate Variability & Change on the Canadian Prairies