A Fuel Cell Primer: The Promise and the Pitfalls "Not long ago, the fuel cell was dismissed as an environmentalist’s pipe dream....Now it is the subject of a heavily financed research-and-development race among some of the world’s biggest auto makers." Jeffrey Ball, The Wall Street Journal By Tom Koppel Ph.D. and Jay Reynolds 2000 by Tom Koppel and Jay Reynolds All Rights Reserved Table of Contents: What is a Fuel Cell?............................................................................................................ 4 Not All Fuel Cells Are Created Equal ................................................................................ 5 Ballard and its Allies........................................................................................................... 7 The California Connection.................................................................................................. 9 The Competition, GM and Toyota.................................................................................... 10 Fuel, The Great Unknown................................................................................................. 12 Political Uncertainties....................................................................................................... 14 Commercial-Scale Stationary Power ................................................................................ 15 Home-Size Stationary Power............................................................................................ 19 Portable/Standby Power.................................................................................................... 21 Related Technologies and Markets................................................................................... 22 A Glimpse at the Hydrogen Economy.............................................................................. 23 APPENDICES .................................................................................................................. 26 APPENDIX OF TABULAR DATA................................................................................. 27 APPENDICES OF USEFUL WEB SITES....................................................................... 27 Additional Resources – Video, pdf and Web.................................................................... 27 Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Resources................................................................................... 27 Fuel Cell Companies:........................................................................................................ 28 Governmental Resources: ................................................................................................ 28 Additional Online Resources ............................................................................................ 29 About the Authors............................................................................................................. 30 Disclosures of Our Investments ........................................................................................ 30 Disclaimer ......................................................................................................................... 30 A Fuel Cell Primer: The Promise and Pitfalls Page 2, Rev 6, January 2, 2001 The incredibly rapid advance of fuel cell technology shows that necessity really can be the mother of invention. There is no mistaking the necessity. We in the industrialized countries have been consuming the world’s limited energy resources at a rate that cannot be sustained, much of it in inefficient internal combustion vehicles that burn non-renewable fuels. And we’ve been despoiling the environment in the process. Estimates from the Environmental Protection Agency indicate that motor vehicles in the U.S. account for 78% of all carbon monoxide emissions, 45% of nitrogen oxide emissions and 37% of volatile organic compounds. Worldwide, over one billion people living in urban areas suffer from severe air pollution, and according to the World Bank over 700,000 deaths result each year. Moreover, each gallon of gasoline produced and used in an internal combustion engine releases roughly twenty-five pounds of CO2, a greenhouse gas that contributes to global warming. In response to the critical need for a cleaner energy technology, invention kicked into high gear. Fuel cells generate energy with little or no harmful emissions. So, beginning a decade ago, significant government seed money was put into fuel cell R & D. Private capital soon followed. In just ten years, the power of fuel cells was boosted roughly twenty fold, making them easily compact and light enough to power our cars. Drastic cost reductions have made them contenders to deliver stationary and portable energy for a multitude of other applications. The advances in fuel cell technology are real. As one leading fuel cell engineer has said, “This is not just smoke and mirrors.” Fuel cells promise to greatly reduce energy-related environmental impacts without significantly compromising our modern lifestyles. Little wonder, then, that some investors have been betting, and winning big, on publicly traded companies with major stakes in fuel cell technology. From the beginning of 1995 to the end of 1997, the share price of the acknowledged leader in the field, Ballard Power Systems, soared 1100 %. In just this past year Ballard’s shares rose 224%, closing at $63.16 after having been as high as $144.95. The overall performance of a few of the smaller players was also impressive. FuelCell Energy’s share price, for example, shot up a remarkable 273% in that same time period. However, Plug Power’s stock decreased 52%. In most cases if investors bought near the high points for these stocks and held them, by year’s end they had lost half their equity or more. That’s why we speak of “pitfalls” as well as promise. Until now, this sort of meteoric rise in market capitalization was largely reserved for biotech and Internet stocks. But as Red Herring magazine recently observed, “There is potentially far less economic and political risk associated with fuel-cell stocks. While biotech products have to pass Food and Drug Administration test trials, and many Internet stocks have unproven revenue models, fuel-cell companies could succeed for fundamental business reasons alone.” A Fuel Cell Primer: The Promise and Pitfalls Page 3, Rev 6, January 2, 2001 Still, most of the fuel cell companies do not yet have a commercial product to offer and have never turned a profit. Some of the most important issues affecting fuel cell commercialization have yet to be answered. In light of such rapid technological breakthroughs, who’s to say that today’s leaders will remain at the head of an expanding fuel cell pack. And given the run-up in share prices, perhaps fuel cell stocks are already overvalued. The buzz and wellmeaning halo of virtue surrounding this clean, green technology can be infectious. But investing in fuel cell companies is nothing if not speculative. This report is presented in the hope that it can help you to cut your way through the hype and jargon. We will explain very briefly how fuel cells work; outline the main types of fuel cells and their relative merits for specific applications; and introduce you to a few of the leading fuel cell companies. We will also outline their development and marketing strategies, discuss their alliances (if any) with larger corporations; and warn of the major uncertainties that face this burgeoning new industry. Finally, we will provide links and recommended reading that should expedite your further digging. All of this will, we trust, help you to make well-informed decisions. What is a Fuel Cell? A fuel cell is a clean and quiet device that generates electricity from hydrogen and oxygen. An individual cell delivers very little power, so thin cells are combined like slices of bread in a loaf to form a fuel cell "stack." Fuel cells simply reverse the familiar high school science demonstration in which electricity is put through water to produce hydrogen and oxygen. In the most common transportation fuel cell, a polymer plastic membrane coated with platinum is sandwiched between two flat electrodes. Hydrogen flows in on one side, oxygen from the air on the other. They combine to form water so pure you can drink it and generate electricity without combustion or nasty emissions. A fuel cell is a bit like a battery, but better, because it needs no slow recharging. It produces electricity as long as fuel and air are supplied to it. British lawyer and physicist Sir William Grove discovered the principle of the fuel cell in 1839, decades before the invention of the internal combustion engine. But then it largely languished until the Apollo space program in the 1960s. No batteries could last long enough for a flight to the moon. NASA spent tens of millions of dollars in a successful crash program that used fuel cells to power the on-board electrical systems. They worked, but the commercial potential of fuel cells seemed minimal. The cells that NASA deployed were hand-built and used exotic materials, so the cost per kilowatt of power was astronomical. They were also bulky. Other types of fuel cells were more promising, though, and research continued at a low funding level at several national laboratories and universities. Beginning in the mid1980s, government agencies in the US, Canada and Japan significantly increased their funding for fuel cell R & D. Meanwhile, the environmental advantages of fuel cells became a political factor, and their green potential A Fuel Cell Primer: The Promise and Pitfalls Page 4, Rev 6, January 2, 2001 began to capture the public imagination. When advances in the output of fuel cells reached the point where it was clear they could power a car, investment in the technology began to grow exponentially. The rest, as they say, is history. Not All Fuel Cells Are Created Equal There are six major types of fuel cells with potential for a variety of commercial applications. The first to be fired into space was the proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell, which was developed by GE and performed successfully on the Gemini orbital missions of the mid1960s. Then it was abandoned, and GE’s patents gradually ran out. Ballard Power Systems, with Canadian government funding, began improving PEM in 1984, as told in the book by one of us, Powering the Future: The Ballard Fuel Cell and the Race to Change the World. Today, PEM is the main type being commercialized to power automobiles. The Apollo moon missions used the alkaline fuel cell (AFC) developed by United Technologies Corporation. Now, under the aegis of its subsidiary, International Fuel Cells, a greatly improved version provides electrical power to the space shuttles. AFCs worked well in space, where the rocket was already supplied with extremely pure liquid hydrogen and oxygen. But it was not suited to operating on air and impure hydrogen. By contrast, PEM had the potential to work on air and less pure hydrogen (such as gas that is "reformed" from a convenient liquid fuel like methanol). This makes PEMs more suitable than AFCs for use down here on earth. But the early PEM cells needed so much expensive platinum catalyst that this was prohibitive except for space and some military uses. (This has been solved by spreading such a thin layer of microscopic platinum particles on the electrodes that very little is now required.) Another plus for PEM is that it begins generating power at room temperature and attains its peak power at about 80° Celsius (176° Fahrenheit), allowing the relatively fast startup needed for cars. And it responds almost instantaneously to changing power demands, which is crucial for transportation. The phosphoric acid fuel cell (PAFC) was actually the first type to be commercialized (by US and Japanese companies) at a very modest level for stationary power use, beginning in the 1980s. Several hundred units, mainly using natural gas and generating 200 to 250 kilowatts, have been installed around the world. Like PEM, PAFC can run on impure hydrogen and air. But its power output is considerably lower than PEM; it does not respond well to changing power demands; and its operating temperature of around 200° Celsius (395° Fahrenheit) means much longer startup times. Still, in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the US government put tens of millions of dollars into PAFC. The thinking was that PAFC was a relatively proven technology. And with a large battery bank for peak acceleration and hill climbing, it might be suitable for buses. Two other types of cells operate at much higher temperatures of 650° to A Fuel Cell Primer: The Promise and Pitfalls Page 5, Rev 6, January 2, 2001 1000° Centigrade (1202° to 1831° Fahrenheit), making them even less suitable for ground transportation because of their long warm-up time. But they have other advantages. The solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) uses a cheap catalyst and can operate on unreformed natural gas or propane. It has high overall efficiency, which can be improved further if the heat it gives off is captured and used (e.g. to drive a turbine or heat a building.) It can also be made relatively small. The molten carbonate fuel cell (MCFC) also uses an inexpensive catalyst, has high efficiency and produces excess heat that can be captured and utilized. It can run not only on natural gas and propane, but even on diesel fuel, which makes it suitable for ships and stationary power in remote places, such as islands, where delivering a supply of natural gas is difficult or impossible. Finally, the direct methanol fuel (DMFC) cell is a lot like PEM in terms of its catalyst and operating temperature. It has the advantage that it can be directly fed unreformed liquid methanol, rather than gaseous hydrogen from a reformer. The technology is years behind PEM at present. If perfected, though, it would eliminate the need for fuel reformers in cars. Markets and Major Companies By far the greatest public interest has focused on fuel cells for transportation, especially cars and buses. This reflects both the urgent need for cleaner cars and the colossal size of the transportation market. The amount of money that has gone into R & D for fuel cells aimed at the car and bus markets has eclipsed expenditures on all other types combined. Moreover, it was putting prototype fuel cell vehicles on the road in the mid-to-late 1990s -----with wellpublicized “roll-outs” in places like Berlin’s Brandenburg Gate and in front of California’s state capitol in Sacramento-----that really gave this technology visibility. Finally, we all drive cars, right? So we can easily imagine owning one powered by clean, quiet fuel cells in the not-too-distant future. It is what most of us picture when we think of the coming fuel cell revolution. Vehicles, and especially cars, impose special requirements on fuel cells. They must be able to start up quickly and operate in environments ranging from extreme winter cold to dry desert heat. They must be compact and as lightweight as possible. They must be able to stand vibrations and respond well to rapidly changing power demands. Finally, a supply of fuel must be widely available. The only well-advanced type of fuel cell that is really suitable for mass transportation is PEM. This is mainly because its low operating temperature allows for relatively short start-up times (thirty seconds or less) and because it responds almost instantaneously to changing power demands, a characteristic known as “loadfollowing”. PEM cell stacks have already been made compact and powerful enough to fit easily into a passenger car, and they offer power and acceleration equal to, or even better than, the internal combustion engine. So there is no reason to expect them to encounter consumer resistance if they can be made A Fuel Cell Primer: The Promise and Pitfalls Page 6, Rev 6, January 2, 2001 cost competitive, and if the needed fuel infrastructure can be established. Two big ifs. Also under development, though, is the direct methanol fuel cell (DMFC), which may in a few years provide serious competition to PEM for cars. Its advantage, as mentioned, is that it can run on methanol without a separate fuel reformer. Its main drawback, until now, is that its power density was much lower than PEM, but improvements on that score have been rapid. The development of a small, efficient and inexpensive methanol reformer for PEM is one of the current challenges facing the car makers. Yet methanol could turn out to be the only practical way of delivering hydrogen for fuel cell cars, at least over the next decade or longer. So if the methanol reformer proves to be a stumbling block, DMFC could yet turn out to be the technology of choice. Even Ballard, the PEM leader, has hedged its bets by purchasing non-exclusive rights to a proprietary DMFC technology developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Loker Hydrocarbon Research Institute. transit buses were put onto the streets of Chicago and Vancouver. Ballard Powered Transit Busses They proved themselves by successfully carrying thousands of fare paying passengers on normal transit routes for two years. In Germany, Daimler-Benz has put Ballard cells into its own prototype NEBUS (short for New Electric Bus), which is similar, but not identical, to the ones in Chicago and Vancouver. Meanwhile, Daimler put Ballard cells into its series of prototype cars (called NECARs, for New Electric Car). Ballard and its Allies In the race to put fuel cells into cars and buses, the apparent leader is Ballard in partnership with DaimlerChrysler and Ford. Starting in 1990, Ballard put its fuel cells into a series of increasingly impressive prototype buses that ran on compressed hydrogen. The first small bus, rolled out for the media in 1993, was the first-ever fuel cell vehicle capable of carrying passengers with reasonable speed and operating range. Several larger prototypes followed. In the late 90s, six Ballard-built fuel cell The Necar 3 In 1997 Daimler-Benz (soon to become DaimlerChrysler) and Ballard made a $ 390.8 million ($ 508 million Canadian) deal under which Daimler acquired a 25% stake in Ballard. They also formed a joint venture company called DBB Fuel Cell Engines (owned two-thirds by Daimler, one-third by Ballard) to manufacture fuel cell engines. These engines integrate the A Fuel Cell Primer: The Promise and Pitfalls Page 7, Rev 6, January 2, 2001