Disruptive Demographics and North Carolina’s
Global Competitiveness Challenge
James H. Johnson, Jr.
Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise
Kenan-Flagler Business School
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
March 2014
OVERVIEW
• Demographic Trends
• Challenges & Opportunities
• Discussion
what
CENSUS 2010
will REVEAL
March 2014
6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS
•
•
•
•
•
•
The South Rises – Again
The Browning of America
Marrying Out is “In”
The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit
The End of Men?
Cooling Water from Grandma’s Well…
and Grandpa’s Too!
The South
Continues To Rise
...Again!
SOUTH’S SHARE OF U.S. NET
POPULATION GROWTH,
SELECTED YEARS, 1910-2010
Years
1910-1930
1930-1950
U.S. Absolute
Population
Change
30,974,129
28,123,138
South’s
Absolute
Population
Change
8,468,303
9,339,455
1950-1970
1970-1990
51,886,128
45,497,947
15,598,279
22,650,563
1990-2010
60,035,665
29,104,814
South’s Share
of Change
27%
33%
30%
50%
49%
U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY
REGION, 2000-2010
2010
Population
Absolute
Population
Change,
2000-2010
Percent
Population
Change,
2000-2010
309,050,816
26,884,972
9.5%
Northeast
55,417,311
1,753,978
3.3%
Midwest
66,972,887
2,480,998
3.0%
South
114,555,744
14,318,924
14.3%
West
72,256,183
8,774,852
13.8%
9,535,483
1,486,170
18.5%
Region
U.S.
North Carolina
SHARES OF NET POPULATION
GROWTH BY REGION, 2000-2010
Absolute Population
Change
Percent of Total
UNITED STATES
26,884,972
100.0
NORTHEAST
1,753,978
6.0
MIDWEST
2,480,998
9.0
SOUTH
14,318,924
53.0
WEST
8,774,852
32.0
Region
NET MIGRATION TRENDS,
2000-2008
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Total
-1,032
-2,008
+2,287
+46
Black
-346
-71
+376
+41
Hispanic
-292
-109
+520
-117
Elderly
-115
+42
+97
-27
Foreign born
-147
-3
+145
+3
= Net Import
= Net Export
STATE SHARE OF SOUTH’S NET
GROWTH, 2000-2010
Region/State
Absolute Change
State’s Share
14,318,924
100.0%
Texas
4,293,741
30.0%
Florida
2,818,932
19.7%
Georgia
1,501,200
10.5%
North Carolina
1,486,170
10.4%
Other Southern States
4,218,881
29.4%
The South
NC COUNTIES WITH THE LARGEST
ABSOLUTE POPULATION GAINS, 2000-2010
NC COUNTIES EXPERIENCING
POPULATION DECLINE, 2000-2010
Counties with Biologically Declining
Populations, 2009
Alleghany
Northampton GatesPasquotank
Ashe
Camden
Surry Stokes
CaswellPerson VanceWarren
Hertford
Granville
Currituck
Rockingham
Halifax
Watauga Wilkes
ChowanPerquimans
Yadkin Forsyth
Franklin
Avery
Guilford
Bertie
Orange
Mitchell
NashEdgecombe
Durham
CaldwellAlexander Davie
Alamance
Washington
MadisonYancey
Martin
Iredell Davidson
Tyrrell Dare
Wake
McDowellBurke
RandolphChatham
Wilson
Catawba
Rowan
Pitt Beaufort
HaywoodBuncombe
Johnston
Greene
Swain
Hyde
LincolnCabarrus Montgomery Lee
Harnett
Wayne
HendersonRutherfordCleveland
Graham
Stanly
Jackson
Moore
Gaston
Lenoir Craven
Polk
Mecklenburg
Macon Transylvania
Pamlico
Cherokee
Cumberland
Jones
Union AnsonRichmondHoke
Clay
SampsonDuplin
Scotland
Carteret
Onslow
Robeson Bladen
Pender
Columbus New Hanover
Brunswick
Legend
Deaths > Births
Deaths < Births
4
0
37.5
75
Miles
150
GROSS AND NET MIGRATION
FOR THE SOUTH, 2004-2010
The Region
Domestic
Years
In
Out
Foreign
Net
In
Out
Net
2004-2007 4,125,096 3,470,431 654,665
268,619 132,382 136,237
2007-2010 3,874,414 3,477,899 396,525
232,501 132,201 100,300
Florida
Domestic
Years
In
Out
Foreign
Net
In
Out
Net
2004-2007
812,053
630,051 182,002
41,745
24,108
17,637
2007-2010
654,931
668,087
33,095
32,094
1,001
-13,156
U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY
REGION, 2010-2013
2013
Population
Absolute
Population
Change,
2010-2013
Percent
Population
Change,
2010-2013
316,128,839
6,802,554
2.2%
Northeast
55,943,073
566,751
1.0%
Midwest
67,547,890
571,569
0.9%
South
118,383,453
3,525,554
3.1%
West
74,254,423
2,138,670
3.0%
9,848,060
258,527
2.7%
Region
U.S.
North Carolina
SHARES OF NET POPULATION
GROWTH BY REGION, 2010-2013
Absolute Population
Change
Percent of Total
6,802,554
100.0
NORTHEAST
566,751
8.3
MIDWEST
571,569
8.4
SOUTH
3,525,554
51.8
WEST
2,138,670
31.4
Region
UNITED STATES
STATE SHARES OF SOUTH’S
NET GROWTH, 2010-2013
Region/State
Absolute Change
State’s Share
The South
3,525,554
100.0%
Texas
1,203,015
34.1%
Florida
736,806
20.9%
Georgia
278,919
7.9%
North Carolina
258,527
7.3%
Virginia
235,988
6.7%
Other Southern States
812,299
23.1%
NC Biologically Declining Counties, 2010-2012
Net Importers and Exporters of Population, 2010-2012
THE “BROWNING”
OF NORTH CAROLINA
Number of Immigrants (in millions)
U.S. Immigrant Population,
1900-2011
45
40.4
40
35.2
35
31.1
30
25
19.8
20
15
10
13.5 13.9 14.2
10.3
11.6
14.1
10.3 9.7 9.6
5
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960
Year 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2011
U.S. Foreign Born Population by
Race/Ethnicity, 2011
Race/Ethnicity
Foreign Population
Share of Total (%)
Total
40,381,574
100.0
Hispanic
White Alone, not
Hispanic
18,788,300
7,608,236
46.5
18.8
Black Alone, not
Hispanic
Asian Alone, not
Hispanic
Other Alone, not
Hispanic
3,130,348
7.8
9,988,159
24.7
866,531
2.1
22
NORTH CAROLINA POPULATION
GROWTH BY NATIVITY, RACE, AND
ETHNICITY, 1990-2007
829%
547%
332%
129%
Native
Immigrant
127%
133%
White
Black
182%
Hispanic
Asian
Pacific
Islander
NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF
POPULATION GROWTH, 2000-2010
Area
Absolute
Population
Change
Non-White
Share
Hispanic
Share
US
27,323,632
91.7
55.5
South
14,318,924
79.6
46.4
Texas
4,293,741
89.2
65.0
Florida
2,818,932
84.9
54.7
Georgia
1,501,206
81.0
27.9
NC
1,486,170
61.2
28.3
CONTRIBUTIONS OF NON-WHITES
& HISPANICS TO NC POPULATION
CHANGE, 2000-2010
Absolute
Population
Change
1,486,170
Percent NonWhite*
61.2
Percent
Hispanic
28.5
Tier 1 Counties
69,365
84.1
51.5
Tier 2 Counties
327,859
63.2
34.2
Tier 3 Counties
1,088,946
59.1
25.0
Area
All Counties
Source: Census 2000 and Census 2010. *Non-whites include Blacks, Hispanics, American Indians and Alaskan Natives, Asians, Native Hawaiians &
Pacific Islanders, and people of two or more races.
Marrying Out
October 2012
is “In”
27
INTERMARRIAGE TREND, 1980-2008
% Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity
October 2012
28
INTERMARRIAGE TYPES
Newly Married Couples in 2008
October 2012
29
OUT-MARRIAGE PATTERNS BY
RACE AND GENDER, NC 2005-2009
Hispanic Men
21.4 Hispanic Women 21.6
Black Men
9.4 Black Women
3.4
6.0
0.6
White Female
18.0
White Male
16.4
White Female
Black Female
1.5
Black Male
3.7
Hispanic Female 1.4
Hispanic Male 1.9
Asian Female
0.7
Asian Male
0.2
Asian Female
0.5
Asian Male
0.1
Other Female
1.2
Other Male
1.3
Other Female
1.5
Other Male
0.9
White Men
3.3 White Women
3.4
Asian Men
White Male
12.3 Asian Women
31.4
Hispanic Female 1.1
Hispanic Male
1.2
White Female
10.0
Hispanic Male 1.5
Black Female
0.3
Black Male
1.1
Black Female
0.6
White Male
25.8
Asian Female
0.9
Asian Male
0.2
Hispanic Female 0.5
Black Male
2.7
Other Female
1.0
Other Male
0.9
Other Female
Other Male
1.3
1.2
Median Age and Fertility Rates for Females in
North Carolina, 2007-2011
Demographic Group
All Females
White, Not Hispanic
Black
American Indian & Alaskan Native
Asian
Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander
Some other race
Two or more races
Hispanic
Native Born
Foreign Born
Source: www.census.gov
*Women 15 to 50 with births in past
12 months.
Median Age
38.7
42.9
35.8
34.6
32.9
26.7
23.7
16.9
23.8
39.0
36.4
Fertility/1000
women*
56
49
60
66
63
103
97
65
99
52
92
RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S.
BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY
Race/Ethnicity
1990
2008
2011
White
66%
50%
49.6%
Blacks
17%
16%
15.0%
Hispanics
15%
26%
26.0%
2%
8%
9.4%
Other
Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).
CHANGE IN THE RACE/ETHNIC
COMPOSITION OF NC PUBLIC
SCHOOLS, 2000-2009
Group
Total
.
AI/AN
Black
Asian
Hispanic
White
2009
Enrollment
1,427,960
20,378
444,870
35,140
152,605
774,967
Source: DPI, The Statistical Profile Online
2000 Absolute Percent
Enrollment Change Change
1,268,422 159,538
12.6
18,651
1,727
9.6
393,712
51,158
13.0
23,576
11,564
49.0
56,232
96,373
171.4
776,251 - 1,284
- 0.2
Share of
Net
Change
100.0%
1.2%
32.1%
7.2%
60.4%
NC’s SILVER TSUNAMI
Absolute and Percent Population
Change by Age, 2000-2010
Age
United States
All Ages
27,323,632
(9.7%)
<25
5,416,292
(5.4%)
-2,905,697
(-3.4%)
19,536,809
(31.5%)
1,486,170
(18.5%)
449,385
(16.2%)
73,209
(2.9%)
698,545
(38.6% )
5,276,231
(15.1%)
265,031
(27.3% )
25-44
45-64
65+
North Carolina
U.S. POPULATION TURNING 50, 55, 62,
AND 65 YEARS OF AGE, (2007-2015)
Average Number/Day
Average Number/Minute
October 2012
Age
50
Age
55
Age
62
Age
65
12,344
11,541
9,221
8,032
8.6
8.0
6.4
5.6
36
DEPENDENCY RATIOS IN THE
AMERICAN SOUTH
Source: Census 2010
NC ABSOLUTE POPULATION
CHANGE BY AGE, 2000-2010
Age
All Ages
Tier 3
Tier 2
Tier 1
All Counties
Counties
Counties
Counties
1,486,170
1,088,946
327,859
69,365
<25
25-44
45-64
449,385
73,209
698,545
369,818
159,248
410,705
85,481
- 36,139
199,101
- 5,914
-49,900
88,739
65+
265,031
149,175
79,416
36,440
Dependency Rates for North
Carolina and Economic
Development Tiers, 2006-2010
Dependency Rate
North Carolina
68.7
Tier 1
90.5
Tier 2
71.3
Tier 3
56.6
COOLING WATERS FROM
GRANDMA’S WELL
And Grandpa’s Too!
Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent
Households, 2001-2010
Household Type
Absolute Number Absolute Change
2010
2001-2010
All
74,718
2,712
3.8
No Grandparents 67,209
917
1.4
Both
Grandparents
2,610
771
41.9
Grandmother
Only
1,922
164
9.3
318
71
28.7
Grandfather Only
October 2012
Percent Change
2001-2010
42
Children Living in Non-Grandparent and
Grandparent-Headed Households by Presence
of Parents, 2010
Household
Type
All Children
Living with
(in thousands) Both
Parents
Living with
Mother
Only
Living with
Father
Only
Living with
Neither
parent
All
74,718
69.3%
23.1%
3.4%
4.0%
No
Grandparents
67,209
73.4%
21.2%
3.3%
2.1%
Both
Grandparents
2,610
18.1%
40.6%
5.2%
36.1%
Grandmother
Only
1,922
13.8%
48.4%
4.5%
33.2%
Grandfather
Only
318
26.4%
45.9%
4.4%
23.6%
October 2012
43
GRANDPARENTS LIVING WITH
GRANDCHILDREN AGES 18 AND
YOUNGER IN NORTH CAROLINA
Total
Households with
Grandparents
Grandparents
Responsible for
Grandchildren
Child's Parents
in Household
2005
2010
Percent
Change
146,875
175,019
19.2
84,232
109,602
30.1
43,679
67,271
54.0
The End of Men?
FEMALE WORKFORCE
REPRESENTATION
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970
1980
1990
% Female
2000
2010
JOBS LOST/GAINED BY
GENDER DURING 2007 (Q4) –
2009 (Q3) RECESSION
Industry
Construction
Manufacturing
Healthcare
Government
Total
Women
-106,000
-106,000
+451,800
+176,000
-1,700,000
Men
-1,300,000
-1,900,000
+118,100
+12,000
-4,700,000
THE PLIGHT OF MEN
• Today, three times as many men of working age do not
work at all compared to 1969.
• Selective male withdrawal from labor market—rising
non-employment due largely to skills mismatches,
disabilities & incarceration.
• The percentage of prime-aged men receiving disability
insurance doubled between 1970 (2.4%) and 2009
(4.8%).
• Since 1969 median wage of the American male has
declined by almost $13,000 after accounting for inflation.
• After peaking in 1977, male college completion rates
have barely changed over the past 35 years.
COLLEGE CLASS OF 2010
DEGREE
MALE
FEMALE
DIFFERENCE
Associate’s
293,000
486,000
193,000
Bachelor’s
702,000
946,000
244,000
Master’s
257,000
391,000
134,000
Professional
46,800
46,400
-400
Doctor’s
31,500
32,900
1,400
1,330,300
1,902,300
572,000
TOTAL
ENROLLMENT IN 2 YEAR
COLLEGES, 2009
Area
U.S.
Southeast
Region
North
Carolina
NC- 2 Yr
Colleges
Total
Enrollment
20,966,826
4,731,356
Full Time
Enrollment
(%)
63
65
Male
Enrollment
(%)
43
41
Black
Enrollment
(%)
13
23
574,135
64
41
24
253,383
43
40
25
UNC SYSTEM STUDENT
ENROLLMENT BY GENDER AND
TYPE OF INSTITUTION, 2010
Type of
Institution
UNC System
Majority
Serving
Minority
Serving
HBUs
Total
Enrollment
175,281
Male
Enrollment
76,953
Percent
Male
44
139,250
63,403
46
36,031
13,550
38
29,865
11,191
37
Average EOG Scores
Math 8 EOG Scores
90.00
83.88
84.44
80.42
Percentage Passed
80.00
81.20
81.87
75.37
70.00
68.22
Boys
72.17
70.15
65.25
72.22
State Avg.
60.00
61.30
50.00
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
Girls
2010/2011
Year
Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin,
Northampton and Pamlico)
Average EOG Scores
Reading 8 EOG Scores
90.00
82.44
80.64
Percentage Passed
80.00
66.61
70.00
60.00
54.17
Boys
56.83
60.08
54.92
50.00
40.00
30.00
Girls
State Avg.
42.92
49.97
49.63
48.38
38.05
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
Year
Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin,
Northampton and Pamlico)
Average EOC Scores
Algebra 1 EOC Scores
90.00
77.78
Percentage Passed
80.00
70.00
69.04
76.65
67.73
69.50
60.00
69.33
Girls
62.92
57.98
58.92
57.10
50.00
48.73
50.67
40.00
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
Boys
2010/2011
Year
Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin,
Northampton and Pamlico)
State Avg.
EOC Composite Scores
EOC Composite Pass Rates
85.0
80.8
% of Students Passing
80.0
75.0
70.0
68.4
71.5
71.6
65.0
67.4
60.0
55.0
50.0
53.85
50.8
79.7
73.95
67.8
Females
55.7
State
52.6
45.0
40.0
2007/2008
Males
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
Year
Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin,
Northampton and Pamlico)
Male-Female Presence Disparity
Total Number of EOC Test Takers
6400
6200
Number of Test Takers
6000
5800
5600
5400
males
5200
females
5000
4800
4600
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
Year
Graph shows total number of male and female students tested of 6 LEAs
(Bertie, Bladen, Duplin, Halifax, Northampton, and Pamlico)
High School Graduation Rates
Graduation Rates (LEAs Grouped)
90
77.37
Percent Graduated
80
78.42
75.17
81.30
70
50
60.65
69.42
63.75
60
59.58
Boys
40
Girls
30
20
10
0
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
Year
Avg. graduation rates of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin,
Northampton and Pamlico)
The Minority Male
Challenge
Third Grade EOG Reading Test Pass
Rates For Males by Race/Ethnicity
80%
70%
65%
EOG Pass Rate
68%
59%
60%
55%
50%
52%
45%
55%
50%
69%
57%
52%
White Boys
46%
46%
38%
40%
30%
66%
Black Boys
48%
49%
American Indian
43%
33%
31%
20%
2008
2009
Latino Boys
2010
Year
2011
2012
Third Grade EOG Math Test Pass
Rates for Males by Race/Ethnicity
100%
90%
90%
90%
90%
79%
80%
76%
77%
74%
75%
84%
80%
EOG Pass Rate
90%
80%
70%
67%
67%
60%
50%
77%
Black Boys
65%
65%
2009
2010
Year
67%
68%
Latino Boys
American Indian
54%
40%
2008
White Boys
2011
2012
Eighth Grade EOG Reading Test Pass
Rates for Males by Race/Ethnicity
100%
90%
77%
EOG Pass Rate
80%
80%
60%
54%
49%
50%
54%
44%
55%
56%
52%
50%
48%
30%
2008
2009
2010
Year
2011
Black Boys
Latino Boys
43%
32%
White Boys
56%
48%
35%
40%
20%
81%
66%
70%
30%
80%
2012
American Indian
Eighth Grade EOG Math Test Pass
Rates for Males by Race/Ethnicity
100%
87%
90%
78%
EOG Pass Rate
80%
89%
77%
73%
70%
66%
89%
90%
79%
80%
78%
74%
56%
65%
68%
51%
54%
40%
2009
2010
Year
Latino Boys
American Indian
65%
50%
2008
White Boys
Black Boys
67%
60%
77%
2011
2012
DIVERSITY RULES
...but Challenges Abound
September 2012
63
September 2012
64
Percent of High School
Graduates Requiring Remedial
Course Work
2010
26.8
19.2
54
1,725
2009
24
20.8
55.2
1,587
2008
23.8
20.2
55.9
1,534
55.2
1,261
2007
25.6
2006
19.2
28.7
0
10
23.3
20
30
None
40
One
1,047
48
50
60
70
Two or
or MoreHS
more GradsPercent of HS Grads
80
90
100
Education is Necessary
...but insufficient
BACHELOR’S DEGREE HOLDERS
(UNDER AGE 25) WHO WERE
JOBLESS OR UNDEREMPLOYED
Year
2000
2011
Percent
41.0
53.6
CHANGE IN INCIDENCE OF POVERTY
BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN
NC, 2005-2007, 2008-2010
Educational
Attainment
Less than High
School
High School
Graduate
Some College,
Associate Degree
Bachelor’s degree or
higher
2005-2007 2008-2010
Percent
Change
253,304
276,757
9.3%
216,667
234,371
8.2%
136,185
186,834
37.2%
49,082
57,919
18.0%
Source: American Community Survey
THE COMPETITIVE TOOL KIT
• Analytical Reasoning
• Entrepreneurial Acumen
• Contextual Intelligence
• Soft Skills/Cultural Elasticity
• Agility and Flexibility
Implications for Workforce Planning
and Development
• Managing transition from the “graying”
to the “browning” of America.
• Competition for talent will be fierce –
and global.
• Successful recruitment and retention will
hinge on your ability to effectively
manage the full nexus of “diversity”
issues.
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MOVING FORWARD
• Higher Education must become more actively engaged in
K-12 Education.
• Improve Male Education Outcomes
• Embrace immigrants
• Education and business must establish stronger ties to
ensure that students graduate with the requisite skills to
compete in an ever-changing global economy.
• Prepare students for the freelance economy.
• Augment efforts to recruit plants with a human capital
recruitment strategy (particularly to attract the NC born
and bred).