International Merchandise Exports (ABS Cat No 5368.0) Latest month: July 2016 Hong Kong and China together were estimated to have accounted for 35.3 per cent of total Tasmanian exports in the year to July 2016. The nominal value of exports to China (including Hong Kong) increased by $351 million or 55.3 per cent in the year to July 2016 compared to the previous year. The primary drivers of this increase were increased non-ferrous metals and seafood exports. Exports to Malaysia increased by $24 million or 11.2 per cent in the same period, due to an increase in exports of non-ferrous metals. Exports to Taiwan, Tasmania’s second largest export destination, decreased by $64 million or 19.2 per cent in the same period, due to decreased non-ferrous metals exports. Department of Treasury and Finance Table 1: Value of exports by jurisdiction, July 2016, nominal original data Year to Yearly Jul 2016 ($m) change (%) NSW 36 211 -2.3 Vic 23 537 -0.2 Qld 47 241 0.3 SA 11 442 0.9 WA 99 359 -9.2 Tas 2 791 8.4 NT Original data 4 616 -22.7 ACT 14 na Aus 242 627 -4.4 SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES, ABS CAT NO 5368.0: TABLE 15A Index: 2010-11 = 100, 12 month original moving average, nominal data Chart 1: Value of exports, Tasmania and Australia, nominal original data Tasmania 115 Australia 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun 17 SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES, ABS CAT NO 5368.0: TABLE 15A Chart 2: Year-average percentage change in Tasmanian exports, nominal original data Year-on-year % change nominal original data Release date: 8 September 2016 Next release date: 6 October 2016 Data in this release are reported in 12-month moving averages due to data volatility. Annual movements The estimated nominal value of overseas merchandise exports from Tasmania increased by 8.4 per cent, to $2.79 billion, in the year to July 2016 compared to the previous year. Nationally, the nominal value of overseas merchandise exports was estimated to have decreased by 4.4 per cent in the same period (Table 1). The nominal value of Tasmania’s exports declined from 2011 to mid-2015, but has generally increased in year-average terms since late 2015 (Chart 1). The lower value of Tasmanian exports since 2011 is partly due to a general decline in export commodity prices and the exclusion of some confidential commodities from the Tasmanian total value of exports since July 2013. Nationally, the nominal value of exports has been decreasing from the peak level in mid-2014. Export markets The ABS estimates that mainland China was the largest importer of Tasmanian goods in the year to July 2016, accounting for 31.1 per cent of the State’s total nominal value of exports (Table 2). 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES, ABS CAT NO 5368.0: TABLE 15A Jul 16 International Merchandise Exports (ABS Cat No 5368.0) Latest month: July 2016 Exports to the USA, the fifth largest export destination, decreased by $40 million or 21.6 per cent in the year to July 2016 compared to the previous year. This was primarily due to decreased non-ferrous metals exports partly offset by an increase of meat exports. Exports to Thailand decreased by $27 million or 24.1 per cent in the same period, due to a reduction in exports of non-ferrous metals. Tasmania’s nominal value of exports to APEC countries recorded an increase of 10.3 per cent in the year to July 2016 compared to the previous year (Table 4). Tasmanian exports to the developing countries increased by 12.8 per cent in nominal terms in the same period. Export commodities Export data by commodity may be misleading due to data confidentiality. As a result, they may not reflect the actual performance in a certain period and part of any increase or decrease may be due to changes to the commodities on the confidential list rather than changes in actual exports. While some confidentialised exports are included in the ‘other and confidential’ category and in the State’s total value of exports (such as hardwood chips), other confidentialised items (such as exports of vessels, products from poppies and softwood chips), are not included in any commodity group and are excluded from the State’s total value of exports. Caution should be taken when interpreting some commodity exports. More detailed information about commodity confidentiality can be found in International Merchandise Trade: Confidential Commodities List (ABS Cat no 5372.0.55.001). In the year to July 2016, around 56 per cent of Tasmania’s exports by value were non-ferrous metals or metallic ores (Table 3). The largest increase in exports by value was for non-ferrous metals (up $138 million or 13.5 per cent), followed by seafood (up $36 million or 24.3 per cent) and fruit and (up $29 million or 50.1 per cent) in the year to July 2016 compared to the previous year. Department of Treasury and Finance Table 2: Tasmanian major export partners, year to July 2016, nominal original data Value Share Jan 00 ($m) (%) Yearly change ($m) China 868 31.1 384 79.3 Taiwan 270 9.7 -64 -19.2 Malaysia 238 8.5 24 11.2 Japan 208 7.5 -5 -2.3 USA 145 5.2 -40 -21.6 Indonesia 145 5.2 1 0.7 Korea 131 4.7 5 4.0 Hong Kong 118 4.2 -33 -21.9 New Zealand (%) 113 4.0 20 21.5 India 91 3.3 16 21.3 Thailand 85 3.0 -27 -24.1 Singapore 46 1.6 -14 -23.3 UK 9 0.3 3 50.0 South Africa 1 0.0 -13 -92.9 323 2 791 11.6 100.0 -41 216 -11.3 8.4 All other Total SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES, ABS CAT NO 5368.0: TABLE 36F Table 3: Tasmanian exports by commodity*, year to July 2016, nominal original data Original Value Share Yearly change Commodity ($m) (%) ($m) (%) Non-ferrous metals 1 159 41.5 138 13.5 Other & confidential 569 20.4 126 25.4 Metallic ores and 400 14.3 - 83 -17.2 Meat 206 7.4 20 10.6 Seafood 186 6.7 36 24.3 Dairy products 122 4.4 - 36 -22.6 Fruit & vegetables 87 3.1 29 50.1 Wood & woodchips 31 1.1 -2 -6.7 Vehicles (incl vessels) 17 0.6 -5 -23.4 Textiles 14 0.5 -7 -33.0 2 791 100.0 216 8.4 metal scraps Total *Exports data by commodity may be misleading due to data confidentiality. As a result, they may not reflect the actual performance in a certain period. SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES, ABS CAT NO 5368.0: DATA ON SUBSCRI International Merchandise Exports (ABS Cat No 5368.0) Latest month: July 2016 In the same period, the largest decrease in nominal export value was for metallic ores and metal scraps (down $83 million or 17.2 per cent), followed by dairy products (down $36 million or 22.6 per cent). In the year to July 2016, 42 per cent of exports of metallic ores and metal scraps and 40 per cent of non-ferrous metals were sold to China (including Hong Kong). Around 22 per cent of metallic ores and metal scraps were sold to Malaysia. In the year to July 2016, around 17 per cent of Tasmanian metallic ores and metal scraps and around 12 per cent of non-ferrous metals were exported to Taiwan (Table 5). Table 4: Major Tasmanian export destinations* by value, year to July 2016, nominal original data Original Country groups Value Growth ($m) (%) APEC 2 538 10.3 Developing Countries 2 259 12.8 ASEAN 675 -5.1 OECD 660 -3.4 EU 59 0.0 Least Developed Countries 18 -5.3 * The sum of the values in Table 4 exceeds the value of total Tasmanian exports as several countries are included in more than one country group. SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES, ABS CAT NO 5368.0: TABLE 36F Table 5: Tasmanian export commodities – major destinations, percentage share, year to July 2016, nominal original data Original Non-ferrous Metallic ores and Agriculture and metals metal scrap seafood Country All other % % % % China (including Hong Kong) 40 42 24 31 Taiwan 12 17 3 6 Malaysia 7 22 3 7 United States 1 0 17 4 Japan 3 4 16 8 Korea 4 7 4 4 10 1 2 2 1 0 1 13 21 8 29 25 100 100 100 100 Indonesia New Zealand Other Total * * Components may not add to total due to rounding. SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES, ABS CAT NO 5368.0: DATA ON SUBSCRIPTION This Data Release is not to be reproduced or altered without the permission of the Economic Analysis Unit. Contact Details Economic Analysis Unit Economic.Analysis@treasury.tas.gov.au