Solar Energy Application Centre (SEAC) *** Long-term program 2012-2016 *** Update: January 2014 Author: Wiep Folkerts 1. 2 3 4 5 The Solar Energy Application Centre 3 1.1 Introduction 3 1.2 Scope and topics of SEAC 3 Building Integrated PV 4 2.1 Definition and Scope 4 2.2 Technology status & issues 5 2.3 Market status & outlook 9 2.4 SEAC Program Pre-fab Solar roofs 13 13 3.1 Definition and Scope 13 3.2 Technology status & issues 13 3.3 Market status & outlook 14 3.4 SEAC Program 14 Integration of PV into Infrastructure 15 4.1 Definition and Scope 15 4.2 Technology status & issues 15 4.3 Market status & outlook 15 4.4 SEAC Program 16 Horticulture Greenhouse Solar systems 16 5.1 Definition and Scope 16 5.2 Technology status and issues 16 5.3 Market status & outlook 18 5.4 SEAC Program 19 6 Solar Thermal and PV-Thermal systems 19 6.1 Definition and Scope 19 6.2 Technology status and issues 19 6.3 Market status & outlook 20 6.4 SEAC Program 20 7 PV with Storage and autonomous PV Systems 21 7.1 Definition and Scope 21 7.2 Technology status & issues 21 7.3 Market status and Outlook 21 7.4 SEAC Program 21 8 Electronic system and components 22 8.1 Definition and Scope 22 8.2 Technology status & issues 22 8.3 Market status & outlook 22 8.4 SEAC Program 22 9 Control systems and grid integration 23 9.1 Definition and Scope 23 9.2 Technology status & issues 23 9.3 Market status & outlook 23 9.4 SEAC Program 23 10 Data bases, portals and software 24 10.1 Definition and Scope 24 10.2 Technology status & issues 24 10.3 Market status & outlook 24 10.4 SEAC Program 24 11 References 25 1. The Solar Energy Application Centre 1.1 Introduction The Solar Energy Application Centre (SEAC) is a research organization, focused on the application of (PV and Thermal) solar energy systems, in the built environment, infrastructure and networks, including their mechanical and electrical integration. SEAC is a foundation (“stichting”) with a board representing ECN, TNO and Holland Solar. The mission of SEAC is to organize and perform industrial research and experimental development in the field of solar energy systems and applications. The technical expertise of the SEAC is strongly focused on three key R&D areas: benchmarking, field testing and techno-financial modeling of solar energy systems & applications. The SEAC covers these and other topics through strategic collaboration agreements with other R&D institutes like ECN, TNO, Utrecht University and Technical University Eindhoven. SEAC is supported by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Ministry of National Affairs via a Green Deal. This document is an update of the SEAC long-term program, that was originally created in January 2012. 1.2 Scope and topics of SEAC The Scope of SEAC covers the part of the solar energy supply chain starting at and downstream from the solar module or collector. The topics as covered by the Application Centre Solar Energy: I. Integration into buildings, systems and infrastructure 1. Building integrated PV (BIPV) 2. Pre-fab Solar roofs 3. Integration of PV into Infrastructure 4. Horticulture Greenhouse Solar systems 5. Solar Thermal and PV-Thermal (PVT) systems 6. PV with storage and autonomous PV systems II. Integration into electricity and communication networks 7. Electronic systems and components 8. Control systems and grid integration 9. Databases, portals and software SEAC strives to carry out the research program in projects built on cooperation with companies and other research institutes like ECN, TNO and Universities. The main activities in such projects are: New concepts Design Prototyping Field testing Performance modeling Techno-financial calculation models Benchmarking 2 Building Integrated PV 2.1 Definition and Scope The application of Photovoltaic technology transforms buildings from energy users to energy producers. In addition to the older concept of PV installation or “building applied photovoltaics (BAPV)”, a new technology is emerging: Building Integrated PV (BIPV). This refers to a merging of the construction technology with PV: the architectural, structural and aesthetic integration of PV into buildings. In the BIPV approach, the PV modules become true construction elements such as roofs, façade or skylight elements. We therefore define BIPV components as PV components that are designed to serve as part of the building envelope and has - in addition to the function of energy generation one or more of the following functionalities: Weather protection (waterproofed, windproofed, sun protection) Thermal insulation Noise protection Modulation of daylight Aesthetic value Figure 1 An example of BIPV This means that apart from standard PV characteristics to be considered: Electricity production (kWh/yr) Investment cost (€) Maintenance cost (€/yr) , also other characteristics need to be considered: Color, appearance, size Weather tightness Safety in the construction Mechanical connectivity Electrical connectivity Figure 2 Various colors PV cells for BIPV, as offered by Scheuten Solar. 2.2 Technology status & issues In Europe, the “Sunrise” project was established by the EU to facilitate and accelerate the BIPV development and market [1]. The results of this project were published in 2011. Both major types of solar technology are employed for BIPV: crystalline Si based cells and thin film (TF) solar cells. Table 1 overview of BIPV solutions and fields of application [3] The solutions listed in the table can be c-Si based or TF based, with the exception of Flexible laminates, which are TF based and useable on flat roofs, curved roofs and other applications. The standard in-roof systems may not be considered as real BIPV products as they take the standard PV modules as a starting point, not the functional requirements from the market. The solutions indicated in Table 1 are illustrated in the following pictures: Figure 3 Semi-transparent façade based on thin film technology [4]. Figure 4 Semi-transparent solution based on c-Si, as offered by Scheuten Solar. Figure 5 A façade cladding PV solution from Schüco [7] Figure 6 Solar tiles [5] Figure 7 Thin film PV on curved roof [6] Figure 8 Solar shingles from Dow Solar Solutions Company UniSolar Country Technology USA TF-Si (tandem/triple) produced on flexible stainless steel roll-toroll; Roll cut into modules before lamination. Global Solar USA Ascent Solar USA Dow Solar Solutions USA SoloPower USA Schüco GER Scheuten Solar NLD Odersun GER Sunways GER Schott Solar Solarfun Comments Easy installation on (metal) solid roofs, not on porous or rough surfaces. Suitable for roofs with low weight load rating. Low efficiency (7%) CIGS on stainless steel roll-to-roll Efficiency 11%. Sells to BIPV element producers like Dow Solar Solutions CIGS on flexible polyimide Efficiency 10% substrate Shingles based on Global Solar Product not yet released material CIGS on metal substrate roll-to- Product not yet released roll by electrodeposition TF and c-Si modules with BIPV Variety in size and colors mounting system c-Si based glass-glass modules Variety of size,shapes, transparancies, colors Variety of colors and shapes GER CIGS on Cu tape. Glass-glass and glass-foil modules c-Si based frameless glass-foil modules with colored backfoil TF-Si on glass China c-Si triple glass modules Variety of size,shapes, transparancies, colors Variety of colors and shapes Semitransparent and opaque Table 2 overview of companies active in BIPV [8] The main technical challenges for BIPV are: BIPV products have to perform as building material. This means: functionality as part of the building envelope (weatherproofing, thermal insulation, noise insulation, etcetera), but also a durability equivalent to the materials replaced. Some EU building codes also forbid the use of EVA encapsulate. Reasonable access to replacement, repair and maintenance. Aesthetics and full flexibility in color, shape and size against reasonable cost. Ease of installation. This means that the electrical connection system is designed “plug and play” (even wireless is an option). Mounting systems in line with construction practice. Efficiency. Efficiency is the main driver for kWh/m2 energy generation. Low cost Prevention of BIPV module heat-up. For instance using back ventilation. Low weight. Maximum weight load of many existing roofs is too low for standard solar installations. In addition also for installation of façade systems, the weight of the modules translates into a cost factor. System design to prevent power loss from shading and pollution. (One option is the development of micro-inverters, see chapter 7) Product design to minimize power loss for non-optimum orientations, e.g. in facades. BIPV on non-glass materials 2.3 Market status & outlook Table 5 shows an estimate of the BIPV potential in Europe, USA and Japan: 9000 km 2 of roof area for 400-1000 GWp installable PV power. Table 3 Potential of BIPV [2] This corresponds to a market value of order of magnitude 1000 billion Euro. BIPV is more expensive than conventional ground based or BAPV systems. This is the main reason that BIPV nowadays only takes a few percent of the PV world market. Exceptions are France and Italy where specific BIPV support mechanisms are in place. These support schemes go hand in hand with a specific legal definition of BIPV, that includes what the Sunrise project [3] refers to as BIPV fastening systems. These are BIPV systems that are based on standard panel sizes and are mounted “in-roof”. Figure 9 A fastened BIPV system that meets the legal definition of BIPV in Italy and France, however may not be the ultimate architectonically acceptable building block. Figure 10 Categorization of installed PV, where for France and Italy the legal definition of BIPV is used Pike Research published an analysis of the BIPV sector in 2010 [8], forecasting a 41% CAGR (base case) of the market in the coming years. This corresponds to a wholesale revenue of 3 billion Euro in 2016. According to Pike Research the market growth is expected to be divided almost equally over EU, NAFTA and Asia in 2016. BIPV market forecast: 2009-2016 4,000 3,500 3,000 MW 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2009 2010 2011 Base Case 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Upside Forecast Source: Pike Research [8] Figure 1a BIPV global market forecast [8] BIPV market forecast by Region, Base Case: 2009-2016 3,000 2,500 MW 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2015 EU Base Asia Base NAFTA Base 2016 ROW Base Source: Pike Research Figure 2b BIPV regional market forecast [8] For façade solutions, the cost of BIPV has to be put in perspective of the cost of the material that it replaces. An estimate of this comparison is shown in the figure below. This is also true for BIPV roof solutions. 600 500 Euro/m^2 400 300 200 100 0 Figure 3 Cost comparison for BIPV and facade materials For rooftop BIPV projects, usually the project Return on Investment (ROI) is the driving factor, while for façade projects the architectural appeal is often more important than the ROI. The main challenges to overcome for market growth are: Good project ROI’s. This factor is driven by incentives (FITs), kWh yield (efficiency, orientation, system design) and net system cost (offset by the cost of the materials replaced). Supply chain integration. This means a natural integration of PV options in the building process. Availability of architecturally appealing products. Architects seem to rate flexibility in size, shape and color as more important than cost/Wp. Perceptions of building contractors about BIPV. Many contractors regard BIPV as expensive, less available relative to standard building materials and much riskier in terms of cost and timely delivery. Sales through retail stores for residential markets. Such as Praxis and Gamma. Clear and well established regulations and certifications for products and installers. 2.4 SEAC Program The SEAC program focuses on defining and executing projects in cooperation with industrial partner(s). The overall goal of the program is to create modular BIPV roof and façade systems and PV windows that fit market requirements. 1. The SEAC projects focus on developing and demonstrating new BIPV products that offer an improvement on at least one of the key market challenges and/or technical challenges as outlined above. 2. A key project is the creation of a BIPV proeftuin: a building on which new BIPV systems of various suppliers will be installed, demonstrated and monitored. 3. The SEAC develops and maintains a BIPV techno-financial model. The model includes investment cost for different BIPV solutions, kWh yield and ROI calculation. 3 Pre-fab Solar roofs 3.1 Definition and Scope Prefab solar roofs are complete roof-solutions with integrated solar energy functionality (PV and/or solar thermal). Application of prefab solar roofs means that no on-site module installation is needed. A prefab solar roof may have the following functionalities: Generation of solar energy Waterproofed Thermal insulation The application of prefab solar roofs has the following benefits: Creation of the prefab roof takes place off-site on an assembly site, where the work can be planned independently from weather conditions. Reduction of installation time. Enhanced quality of the installation work Avoid cost due to safety aspects of time-consuming panel-for-panel mounting on a roof. Cost advantage with respect to on-site panel mounting 3.2 Technology status & issues Some initial experiments with prefab PV roofs have been carried out, for instance the prefab PV experiment in the ‘Stad van de Zon’ in Heerhugowaard. The promise of this approach for cost effectiveness and standardized flexibility is apparent. However, many challenges still need to be overcome. Figure 4 Prefab Solar roofs Under the SBIR program carried out by Agentschap.NL, Ballast Nedam is working on the development of an approach for prefab solar roofs. 3.3 Market status & outlook We foresee an interesting market for prefab solar roofs particularly in renovation projects. Installation of PV is one of the most cost effective means to improve the Energy Performance Standard (EPC) of an existing building. In a large renovation program with a substantial number of similar houses, the prefab solar roof is an attractive cost effective option with advantages on quality control and warranties. In times of economical crisis the market for renovation projects may be more attractive than the market for new-built buildings. 3.4 SEAC Program 1. The SEAC projects focus on developing, demonstrating and prequalifying prefab solar roof systems. 2. A key project is a medium scale (~50 houses) renovation project using prefab solar roofs, including monitoring of the performance. 3. The SEAC develops and maintains a techno-financial model for prefab solar roofs. The model includes cost benefits with respect to on site assembly of solar panels. 4 Integration of PV into Infrastructure 4.1 Definition and Scope This topic concerns the challenges that we face when integrating PV into dikes, sound barriers, roads and ground based projects. This relates to optimizing the carriers constructions (BOS), project layout, electrical line diagram and safety aspects. 4.2 Technology status & issues Figure 5 PV on a sound barrier Technical challenges on this topic are: System configuration for elongated configurations along roads and dikes: how to optimize cabling and inverter string layout connection to the grid: due to location of the systems and the expected large size separate grid connections need to be made. How to optimize in view of cost and exploitation safety; in for instance sound barriers; module integrity, behavior under calamities, access and flight routes life span and durability; infrastructure objects are expected to have a long life span with minimum maintenance, whereas the environment in most cases poses extra load due to chemical substances (salt), abrasive particles (steel and stone grit). Moreover, the locations are in general more exposed to the elements. 4.3 Market status & outlook Within the building industry, infrastructure is set apart as it is suffering less from the financial and economic crises. Investments in infrastructure may be a governmental tool for stimulating economical growth. Integrating solar energy systems in infrastructure is thus an activity with good growth prospects, and an inherent large potential. Investments in improving infrastructure will stay an important driver for this sector, with apparent good prospects in export as well. 4.4 SEAC Program SEAC strives to be involved in the “Afsluitdijk wordt Energiedijk” project. Potential business partners are Rijkswaterstaat, Prorail, Structon, BAM, Ballast Nedam, Van Campen The SEAC program is targeted on the following challenges: o cabling and grid integration aspects o module/building block development for these specific requirements o techno financial model development o lifespan, safety and warranty issues 5 Horticulture Greenhouse Solar systems 5.1 Definition and Scope In horticulture greenhouses, the challenge is to optimize temperature, light and CO 2 concentration for each specific crop against the lowest possible energy cost. PV and can play a role in that, if combined in a smart way into a total system approach. 5.2 Technology status and issues Figure 6 A greenhouse with PV in Munich Sunlight is the driving motor for the growth of crops in a greenhouse. Especially for vegetable crops, the more sunlight, the better production. Typically a combination of red and blue light is sufficient for optimum growth. Details depend on the type of crop. Also the optimum light level depends on the crop. Some crops (e.g. pot plants) are shade tolerant, others need as much light as possible (with avoidance of burning damage by direct sunlight). Many crops also benefit from an elevated CO2 level in a greenhouse. In order to keep the CO2 level elevated, the greenhouse needs to be closed. Typically in winter the temperature is lower than optimum, while in summer the temperature tends to get to high. In a straightforward solution the greenhouse is heated in winter. And cooled in summer for instance by opening windows, which makes it difficult to keep an elevated CO2 level. Another strategy is the use of thermal screens in summer. In practice greenhouse farmers chalk out part of the glass surface depending on season. In a (semi)closed greenhouse, the excess energy available in summer is stored as heat and used in winter. One way is to use coolers in summer and store the energy in 100m deep aquifiers at approximately 18-20C. Another way is to use movable PV shields that cover the south oriented roof parts of the greenhouse as soon as a threshold level of light and temperature is reached. However light for PV competes with light for the growth of the crops. Potential directions for a solution: Use the system only for shade tolerant crops Use the generated electricity for generating only the needed wavelength of light (using LEDs) Some way of spectral separation Dutch companies, like Van der Valk, Alkupro, Elkas developed concepts based on integration of PV in the greenhouse. In general these are semitransparent systems where a fixed part of the greenhouse roof area is used for PV. The immediate problem of these systems is that this area is fixed and cannot be varied depending on season, weather or crop type. Van der Valk systems posed the idea of flexible sunshades with integrated PV. Figure 16 Flexible sunshade concept with integrated PV The problem with such systems is that the kWh yield of the PV is limited, making it hard to justify the investment. Elkas (WUR) posed an idea to separate the near-IR (NIR) part of the spectrum from the sunlight using a reflective foil and use this part of the spectrum for PV. Figure 17 Elkas concept for horticulture PV Another idea of the WUR is to separate direct sunlight from diffuse sunlight using a Fresnel lens, and use the direct light for PV and the diffuse light for growth of the crop. A theoretically ideal system for a greenhouse application would be a spectrum selective PV system that uses the green and NIR light for PV and leaves the blue and red part of the spectrum for the growth of the crop. Technical issues and challenges: For any of the above indicated systems, the challenge is to obtain low cost and high efficiency How to combine flexibility depending on crop, season and weather with PV efficiency, kWh yield and acceptable ROI Develop spectral selective PV systems or other efficient means of spectral separation To prove that introducing smart PV systems does at least not negatively influence the growth of the crop 5.3 Market status & outlook The Horticulture sector is an innovative sector. One of the driving forces for innovation is the drive for energy efficiency. This is because energy cost is a substantial part of the total operational cost in a horticultural greenhouse enterprise. In the EU, the total area of greenhouses is more than 1000 km2. More than 75% of these greenhouses have been supplied by Dutch companies. Dutch companies like Alkupro, Van der Valk, Maurice and Elkas have an innovative strategy in order to maintain market share. The challenge for introduction of any new system is that it must be proven exactly what the effect is on the growth of the different types of crops before the market can and will adopt the new concept. These are time consuming and expensive R&D programs. The WUR has a strong position on knowledge and innovation programs for innovative greenhouse systems. 5.4 SEAC Program The SEAC program focuses on defining and executing projects in cooperation with industrial partner(s) and WUR. The overall goal of the program is to create greenhouse energy systems with integrated PV windows that fit market requirements. 1. Development of spectral selective PV that fits the requirements for application in greenhouses. 2. SEAC projects focus on developing, demonstrating and prequalifying new greenhouse concepts with integrated PV. 3. A techno-financial model for applying PV in greenhouses. The model includes investment cost for different solutions, kWh yield and ROI calculation. 6 Solar Thermal and PV-Thermal systems 6.1 Definition and Scope Solar Thermal Energy is the direct creation of heat (hot water, hot air) from solar energy. Since transport of heat is more expensive, compared to transport of electricity, storage of thermal energy is a logical aspect to be included in the design of solar thermal systems. Storage of thermal energy in a building is an essential aspect of the “CV-loze woning”. PV-Thermal systems are combination systems designed to harvest solar electricity and solar heat in such a way that the total harvested energy per m2 is larger than for either solar thermal or PV. 6.2 Technology status and issues Solar thermal Solar thermal systems are widely available and have reached a mature stage with respect to development. Absorbers in collectors have reached high efficiency levels, control units and storage tanks and heat exchangers leave little room for improvement. However, using the sun as a reliable and continuously available source of thermal energy requires more research on for instance storage systems. PV-thermal The combination of solar thermal and PV at first sight appears to be a logical step to increase overall efficiency. However currently available systems do not reach the yield levels of separate systems, and have a relatively high cost level. Companies like Unidek and Redenko have built up some initial experience with PVT integration for roofs. Figure 78 Redenko PV-T hybrid roof 6.3 Market status & outlook Solar thermal Building insulation increases to a level where energy demand for space heating becomes so low that in principle solar thermal woud be a feasible alternative. When storage systems can be developed to sync supply and demand, an interesting proposition emerges. PV-thermal As the demand for sustainable energy systems in buildings increases, the amount of space available will become an issue. For these situations, for instance in family housing, such systems are ideally suited 6.4 SEAC Program Solar thermal development of thermal storage systems to synchronise supply and demand in small scale housing development of smart controls for optimal combination of Solar thermal, storage, heating and cooling techno-financial model development PV-thermal yield improvement of pv-thermal sytems installation aspects of pv-thermal systems techno-financial model development 7 PV with Storage and autonomous PV Systems 7.1 Definition and Scope Most of the installed PV capacity is grid-connected. However in many cases an autonomous PV system with integrated storage can be an attractive option. An obvious example is when a grid connection is not available or very expensive to make. This is the case in many rural areas of developing countries. Other applications of autonomous PV systems are in outdoor tourism and in mobile applications. 7.2 Technology status & issues Among the first applications of PV in the seventies were calculators and other mobile applications. Since then a lot of experience has been built up in combining PV with local storage. Issues are: Dimensioning of storage capacity with respect to PV capacity in order to optimize the operational behavior of the system Esthetical design of autonomous systems such as stand-alone street lighting Solutions to prevent vandalism and theft (e.g. theft of batteries) Development of low-cost high-lifetime batteries 7.3 Market status and Outlook The largest market for stand-alone systems is in areas where no grid is operational. For instance rural areas in developing countries. Especially health care in these areas depends substantially on electrification, and a stand-alone PV system is often a better solution than a diesel generator. In the western world, the traditional market for stand-alone PV systems is mobile applications. A new part of this market is emerging when it comes to electricity for (moving) festivals. Especially when the PV is easy transportable (flexible, rollable) this may become an interesting application. A more important development is the drive towards local generation for local consumption. In order to limit the load of the transportation and distribution network, the local usage becomes more and more interesting. This saves investments in transport capacity. In many cases (e.g. in Germany) local storage is driven by a gap between buying price and selling price of electricity. This need not necessary be a fully autonomous system, because grid connection is still present. Another market development is connected to the emerging electrical transport (cars and bikes). This goes hand in hand with a potential application of solar powered charging stations. 7.4 SEAC Program Applications of stand-alone PV systems that optimize esthetical value and operational value Applications of stand-alone charging stations for e-cars and e-bikes PV systems with local storage that optimize local usage of generated electricity 8 Electronic system and components 8.1 Definition and Scope PV systems can be implemented in a range of applications, sizes and situations, meeting a large range of power needs. For a high penetration of PV, electronic system components (inverters, storage devices, control components) need to have long lifetime, reliability and low cost. Performance of systems need to be optimized under various circumstances. One example is the performance optimization under partial shadowing or conta-mination. Such a system needs specific components developed with the optimized system in mind Other examples of performance optimization are remote monitoring and service systems and, automatic cleaning systems. This type of systems need specifically developed components. 8.2 Technology status & issues Lifetime and reliability of inverters are typically lower than those of the PV modules. This is one of the bottlenecks for market penetration of PV and BIPV especially, since maintenance work on many small systems in the built environment should be minimized. In summary the technological issues for electronic system components are: Electronic system components with high efficiency, low loss and increased component lifetime (20 years) Micro-inverters for performance optimization of BIPV Storage devices for storing electricity for various timeframes Cost-effective components for remote performance monitoring of large numbers of distributed PV systems Components that enable system performance optimization Installation and maintenance issues (install, service, replacement) 8.3 Market status & outlook In order to achieve high penetration of PV, substantial system-level cost reductions must be made on electronic system components alongside those for PV modules. These cost reductions are closely linked to lifetime and service requirements of these components. With higher penetration of PV, it will also be installed under less favorable situations, increasing demand for yield improvement systems. 8.4 SEAC Program development of yield optimization systems research on installation and maintenance issues; failure detection and identification, service/maintenance methodology monitoring and measurement (smart meters) 9 Control systems and grid integration 9.1 Definition and Scope The Masterplan Solar Energy The Netherlands foresees in 4 GWp installed in 2020. Although this corresponds to a small percentage of generated solar kWh with respect to total demand, in terms of peak load on sunny days it represents a considerable penetration. As the total installed capacity of sustainable electricity generation from wind and solar PV increases, kWh supply and price/kWh will vary over the day and from day to day. This implies the need for supply and demand systems. On a small (user) scale: optimize the kWh usage and cost. On a larger (network and utility) scale: systems for forecasting, planning and price setting, systems to actively manage local storage and trading, systems to control the power quality on the grid. Furthermore, a larger PV electricity supplier who operates a portfolio of smaller PV systems will strive to optimize the design of the portfolio of systems in terms of connection locations to the grid and in terms of orientation of individual systems for optimizing generation over the course of the day. Many of the examples above refer to ways to maximize the value of the generated electricity. 9.2 Technology status & issues In summary the technological issues for grid integration and control are: User demand management systems that optimize local consumption of the electricity at the point of generation in order to minimize cost for the user Grid supply and demand management systems in order to reduce grid loads. This includes forecasting. Management systems for electricity trading, storage and power quality control. System portfolio optimization systems. 9.3 Market status & outlook The coming years, working towards the 4GWp installed in 2020 will be the learning years for many of the challenges mentioned above. In the period after 2020, the need for smart control systems (smart grid integration) is undisputable. 9.4 SEAC Program user demand management systems demand management system hard-& software development user interfacing and user acceptance grid connection principles in relation to the various regulations in different countries 10 Data bases, portals and software 10.1 Definition and Scope In the coming decade we expect a huge increase in the installed base of PV systems in The Netherlands and as such a large increase of solar electricity generated. This gives rise to a number of simultaneous challenges: (1) PV systems will become a commodity for residential and professional consumers which needs a transparent PV system supply market; (2) grid operators and consumers want to understand and forecast the generation of solar power as a function of place and time, in order to enable supply and demand management; (3) mapping available solar potential in terms of system size and return on investment per location; (4) low cost high responsive service systems for maintaining solar systems. These developments go hand in hand with the generation of huge data stes from various sources (“big data”). The data sets can be the basis for new innovative services aiming at optimizing tariff structures and/or network architecture. Another challenge is to transform data into useful information for target groups such as the general public or investors. 10.2 Technology status & issues In summary the issues are: How can databases from various sources be used as a basis for new services that support a further roll-out of PV in the energy system; How can information generated from databases be accessible, affordable and applicable for various target groups, such as the general public, investors, installers, network companies; 10.3 Market status & outlook In the recent years we have seen the first examples of service bases business opportunities, such as “De Zonne-atlas” (solar potential mapping) and “Portaal zonnestroom” (independent information for the general public”. In the coming decade we foresee a large increase in data-based services for supply-demand control, for network control, forecasting and risk management for investors. 10.4 SEAC Program Investigate the value of Data-based services for Data-based services for Data-based services for Data-based services for a big data approach for solar network control and tariff setting investors installers the general public 11 References [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] www.pvsunrise.eu International workshop on BIPV, D. Fraile Montoro, 2008. BIPV report Sunrise-EPIA, D. Fraile Montoro, 2011 Schott Solar Solsticeenery Centrosolar M. Pagliaro: Prog. Photovolt: Res Appl. 18 p61, 2010 Pike Research 2011