2012 EC6A – Garrison Pumped Storage Update WIST Meeting September 10, 2009 2012 Scenarios ● 2012 PC6 – Median Hydro w PLF ● 2012 PC7 – High Hydro Sensitivity ● 2012 PC8 – Low Hydro Sensitivity ● 2012 PC6-1, 2012 PC7-1, 2012 PC8-1 – High Gas Sensitivities on the Median, High and Low Hydro Scenarios ● 2012 EC6A – Median Hydro w 400 MW Pumped Storage added at Garrison 2 Scenario Results – 2012 EC6A Pumped Storage Scenario 2012 EC6A Pumped Storage at Garrison ● Created by adding 400 MW of pumped storage at Garrison (bus 40459) to the 2012 PC6 Median Hydro scenario (2012 base case) ● Pumped storage model inputs: 400 MW generating capacity 300 MW refill capacity 70% cycle efficiency Pumping/generating decision based on the 4 bus LMP Wind Modeling in Promod ● Currently, wind is a fixed resource in 5 Promod ● Hourly generation profiles have been defined for all wind units in our dataset ● Promod uses these profiles to modify the load shapes prior to the dispatch of the thermal resources ● Result: No changes were observed in the wind generation in the 2012 EC6A scenario Results from 2012 EC6A - Overall Comparison of Energy Results by Category Generation Results (MWh) 2012 EC6A Garrison Pumped 2012 PC6 Median Storage w Same Category Hydro_072709 FO Schedule Difference Diff % Conventional Hydro 245,864,271 245,864,271 0 0.000% Pumped Storage 2,125,848 2,152,033 26,185 1.232% 0.025%- Coal Steam 286,400,588 286,472,439 71,851 0.025% Steam - Other Garrison contributed an8,189,051 8,177,894 (11,157) -0.136% additional 81,000 MWh of generation, but the net Nuclear 76,422,232 261 means 0.000% change in total Pumped Storage is only 76,422,493 about 26,000 MWh. This Combined Cyclethere was a decrease 270,572,894 270,530,581 (42,313) -0.016% in existing pumped storage in this scenario. Combustion Turbine 9,051,010 9,054,773 3,763 0.042% Cogeneration 16,191,794 16,187,329 (4,465) -0.028% IC 347,338 347,466 129 0.037% 1.232% Synthetic Crude Tar Sands 0 0 0 0.000% Negative Bus Load 4,823,092 4,823,092 0 0.000% Biomass RPS 7,324,747 7,329,240 4,493 0.061% 0.061% 0.042% 0.037% Geothermal 19,531,029 0.000% 19,531,029 0 0.000% -0.028% -0.136% Small Hydro RPS 3,034,094 3,034,094 0 0.000% Solar 7,465,216 7,465,216 0 0.000% Wind 35,929,117 35,929,117 0 0.000% Net Changes in Annual WECC Generation by Type 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 MWh 0 (20,000) Total 993,272,322 993,321,068 48,746 0.005% 73,284,204 7.4% 73,288,696 7.4% 4,493 0 0.006% 0.001% 158 10,366 399 59 0 0 59.741% 0.000% 0.009% (40,000) Renewable Total Renewable Percent (60,000) Other Results (see TEPPC Glossary for definitions) Dump Energy 99 Emergency Energy 10,366 CO2 Emissions (MMetricTons) 399 CO2 Adder ($/metric ton) 0.000 0.000 CO2 Adder (Total M$) Other Variable Costs (M$) 0 23,875 0 23,871 0 (4) 0.000% -0.015% Total Var. Prod. Cost (M$) 23,875 23,871 (4) -0.015% Variable Production Cost (thermal units) 6 -0.016% Results from 2012 EC6A - Overall Net Changes in Overall Annual Generation By Region 150,000 0.06% 100,000 0.005% 50,000 0.03% 0.01% 0 MWh 0 NWPP BASIN AZNMNV 0.004% CANADA RMPP California WECC -0.03% (50,000) (100,000) -0.04% (150,000) The net increase in WECC generation is due to Garrison’s pumping. 7 Results from 2012 EC6A - Overall Chart Title by Region and Type Changes in Annual Generation CANADA NWPP BASIN RMPP California AZNMNV 100,000 Garrison Pumped Storage 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 MWh 0 Pumped Storage Steam - Coal Steam - Other (20,000) Nuclear Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Cogeneration IC (40,000) (60,000) CA and Rockies Pumped Storage (80,000) Generation that did not change: Conventional Hydro, Geothermal, Small Hydro RPS, Solar, Wind 8 Biomass RPS Results from 2012 EC6A – Garrison Pumped Storage Pumping/Generating Energy Summed OverTitle the Course of the Year – By Hour of Day Chart Pumping Generating 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 MWh 0 1 -5000 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour of Day -10000 -15000 -20000 Garrison pumped 670 hrs during the year Garrison generated 371 hrs during the year, 69 hours at max capacity (400 MW) 9 Results from 2012 EC6A – Montana Generation Changes in MT Generation in Response to Garrison Pumped Storage Gen Name Diff in Gen (MWh) % Diff GARRISON 80,936 Colstrip2 201 0.008% Corette1 81 0.008% Hardin Generation 15 0.002% MillCreek_GS2 (223) -2.336% MillCreek_GS1 (401) -4.017% MillCreek_GS3 (482) -5.101% MONTANA1_1 (484) -0.159% Colstrip3 (2,211) -0.039% Total MT Gen Change* (3,503) *Change does not include Garrison energy. Gen Type Gen Location Large Coal Large Coal Large Coal CT CT CT Small Coal Large Coal near Billings near Colstrip South of Garrison South of Garrison South of Garrison near Colstrip Questions: • What is being used to charge the pumped storage? • What generation is Garrison displacing? 10 Results from 2012 EC6A – Montana Generation Net Changes in Colstrip 2 Generation by Hour Over the Course of the Year 400 200 Net Changes in Existing MT Generation by Hour Over the Course of the Year 0 MWh 0 -200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour of Day -400 400 -600 200 -800 0 MWh 0 -1000 -200 -400 Net Changes in Colstrip Generation by Hour Over the Course of the Year -800 400 -1000 200 0 MWh 0 -200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour of Day -400 -600 -800 -1000 11 -600 Note: Colstrip 2&3 are both coal plants in MT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 If MT generation is decreasing during the hours Garrison is pumping, what generation is being used to pump? Note: These changes reflect changes to existing generation in response to the new Garrison pumped storage plant. Notes on the Promod Dispatch of Thermal Resources ● Loads are defined at the area level, and are distributed to buses within an area at the beginning of a simulation. ● After this is complete, Promod dispatches pool resources to meet the pool load and reliability requirements. Each pool consists of multiple areas. Pool = Region in our reporting. ● During this dispatch, Promod looks for economic opportunities for exchange of power among pools. ● Overall goal is to minimize total system cost. 12 Results from 2012 EC6A – Off-Peak Difference in Off-Peak Generation Cogeneration Biomass RPS Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine IC Nuclear Steam - Coal Steam - Other Total 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 AZ-NM-NV Basin Canada CA-North CA-South NWPP RMPA -10000 -20000 -30000 -40000 -50000 During the off-peak hours (when Garrison is pumping) we see increased transfers from the Basin to the NW, decreased transfers from the NW to CA, and increased transfers from AZ-NM-NV to CA to make up for the generation CA has lost from the NW. 13 Results from 2012 EC6A – On-Peak Difference in On-Peak Generation Cogeneration Biomass RPS Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine IC Nuclear Steam - Coal Steam - Other Total 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 AZ-NM-NV Basin Canada CA-North CA-South NWPP RMPA -10000 -20000 -30000 -40000 -50000 During the on-peak hours (when Garrison is generating) we see increased transfers from the NW to the Basin and CA, and decreased transfers from AZ-NM-NV into CA. 14 Changes in Path Flows – Montana to NW MT-NW Annual Duration Plot PC6 EC6A Pumped Storage 2500 PC6 Base Case EC6A Pumped Storage 2000 % time @ 75% Limit 37.08% 36.62% 1500 % time @ 90% Limit 18.14% 17.96% % time @ 99% Limit 8.11% 8.25% 1000 500 -500 1 383 765 1147 1529 1911 2293 2675 3057 3439 3821 4203 4585 4967 5349 5731 6113 6495 6877 7259 7641 8023 8405 0 MW 0 -1000 Change in Average MW Flow - Montana - Northwest 0 aMW 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Note: Flows on the MT to NW path are measured (in Promod) east of where the Garrison pumped storage is located. -5 -10 -15 -20 15 -25 Hour of Day Changes to Path Flows – Montana to NW Number of Hours During the Year at or Above 99% Limit - Montana to NW PC6 EC6A 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 16 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Changes in Line Flows – Garrison to Taft Change in Average MW Flow - Garrison to Taft 15 10 5 0 aMW 0 -5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour of Day -10 -15 -20 -25 This line is west of the garrison pumped storage plant. Decreased flows during the night are due to the pumping at Garrison. Some of the generation used for pumping is coming from Washington, which contributes to a decrease in east to west flows in this line. 17 Changes in Path Flows – West of Broadview Change in Average MW Flow - West of Broadview 1 0 aMW 0 -1 -2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 PC6 Base Case EC6A Pumped Storage 5.66% 5.79% Hour of Day % time @ 99% Limit -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 Number of Hours During the Year at or Above 99% Limit - West of Broadview -8 PC6 -9 EC6A 60 50 40 30 20 10 18 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Changes in Path Flows – COI Change in Average MW Flow - COI 5 0 aMW 0 -5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 % time @ 99% Limit Hour of Day -10 PC6 Base Case EC6A Pumped Storage 19.91% 19.82% -15 -20 Number of Hours During the Year at or Above 99% Limit - COI -25 -30 PC6 EC6A 140 -35 120 100 80 60 40 20 19 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Questions/Comments? 20