Memorandum
DATE:
July 30, 2012
FROM:
Ned Monroe, Senior Vice President, External Relations
SUBJECT:
Federal Elections Update
With less than 100 days until the election, support from manufacturers could have a direct
impact on several races across the country. Today, the campaign for the Senate Majority is at a
“tipping point” with 8-10 U. S. Senate races that are too close to call. In the U.S. House, there
are nearly 60 races that will be close all the way to Election Day.
To help manufacturers who may have a Political Action Committee or allowable employee
communication resources, the NAM political team has been monitoring these “Toss up” races
that will go down to the wire on November 6. I encourage you to have your team put these
races on your company’s radar screen.
Senate:
New Mexico (Open Seat) - Five-term Sen. Jeff Bingaman’s (D) retirement decision puts one of
the country’s quintessential swing states into play. Only three states changed their votes during
the two George W. Bush elections, and New Mexico is one of the trio. Albuquerque Rep. Martin
Heinrich (D-NM-01) is a two-term Congressman and former City Councilman. Heather Wilson is
his Republican predecessor, serving a total of five and one-half terms in the same district. Both
candidates enjoy strong name ID and have major presence in the dominant Albuquerque media
market. Latest Poll: Public Policy Polling, 7/13-16: Heinrich 48% - Wilson 43%.
Average DC political ratings: Toss-up/Lean Democratic.
Ohio (D - Incumbent) - The race between first-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and state
Treasurer Josh Mandel (R) has the potential to become hotly contested. Both men are prolific
fundraisers. Brown has banked $11.16 million ($6.5 million cash-on-hand), while Mandel has
raised $9.9 million through June 30, with $4.9 million remaining in the bank. Latest Poll:
Rasmussen Reports, 7/18: Brown 46% - Mandel 42%.
Average DC political ratings: Lean Democratic.
Virginia (Open Seat) - First-term Sen. Jim Webb’s (D) decision not to seek a second term set
up a major battle between two of the state’s pre-eminent political powers. For the Democrats,
ex-Governor and Democratic National Committee chairman Tim Kaine is attempting to keep the
seat in his party’s column. On the GOP side, former Senator and Governor George Allen, the
man whom Webb unseated six years ago, is making a comeback attempt. Polling has shown
this race to have been within a point or two for almost a year. Latest Polls: Rasmussen
Reports, 7/16-17: Kaine 46% - Allen 45%; Quinnipiac University, 7/10-16: Allen 46% - Kaine
44%.
Average DC political ratings: Pure Toss-up
House:
IA-3: (Incumbent pairing) - The new Des Moines-based 3rd Congressional District features
two incumbents, Democrat Leonard Boswell (first elected in 1996), and Republican Tom Latham
(first elected in 1994), fighting for one seat. The 2010 Reapportionment cost Iowa one of its five
congressional districts, thus necessitating the placement of two incumbents into one seat.
Latham has raised much more money than Boswell, $2.6 million to $1.2 million, respectively,
through June 30th, but the Democrat currently represents 56% of the new district, compared to
only 17% for the Republican. Twenty-seven percent of the territory is new to both men. The
new seat stretches from Des Moines and Polk County due west all the way to Council Bluffs and
Pottawattamie County. It became four points more Republican than the previous 3rd District on
the 2008 presidential scale. In the new IA-3, President Obama scored 52%, compared to John
McCain’s 46%.
Average DC political rating: Pure Toss-up
OH-16: (Incumbent pairing) - The second bipartisan incumbent pairing features two
Cleveland/Akron area House members, Reps. Betty Sutton (D-Lorain) and Jim Renacci (RCanton). Ms. Sutton was first elected in 2006; Mr. Renacci is a freshman. Renacci already
represents about twice as many people in the new 16th than Sutton (42% to 21%).
Approximately 37% of the new constituency has not previously been represented by either
member. Renacci also comes out ahead on the partisan scale when overlaying the numbers
from the 2008 presidential election. Within District 16’s new confines, McCain scored 51%
compared to President Obama’s 47%. Renacci also leads in fundraising, $2.1 million ($1.5
million cash-on-hand) to $1.5 million ($904,000 available). This will be a hard fought general
election campaign that presidential coattails, or lack thereof, could heavily influence.
Average DC political rating: Toss-up/Lean Republican
Developing:
Hawaii (Open Seat) - U.S. Senate races often produce an upset winner, and the 2012 long shot
could well be Hawaii’s former Gov. Linda Lingle (R). Running in the open seat vacated by
retiring Sen. Daniel Akaka (D), Lingle will face either Rep. Mazie Hirono (D-HI-01) or ex-Rep. Ed
Case, depending upon who wins the Democratic primary on August 11 (Hirono is currently
favored). Lingle already has more cash-on-hand than either of the Democrats, and she has
twice won statewide - no easy feat for an Aloha State Republican. Ms. Lingle’s biggest victory
was her re-election in 2006, a heavily Democratic year, in which she garnered 62.5% of the
vote. Perhaps her most formidable obstacle in 2012 is stemming the tide of what promises to
be a 70+% Obama victory in Hawaii. Latest Polls: Voter/Consumer Research, for Lingle: Lingle
45% - Hirono 40%; Lingle 40% - Case 41%.
Average DC political rating: Lean Democratic
What are the Most Completive Races in the Nation?
See below for a listing of other key House and Senate races that the NAM is monitoring. In
addition, please note that all your election resources, including federal incumbent and
challenger candidate responses to the NAM 2012 Candidate Questionnaire, can be found by
visiting the NAM Election Center website at www.namelectioncenter.org.
NAM 2012 Competitive House Races List
State/District Competitiveness Rating
Rothenberg: Not Rated
Cook: Likely Republican
AR‐04
Ellis: Lean Republican
AZ‐01
AZ‐02
AZ‐09
CA‐03
CA‐07
CA‐09
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Republican Toss Up
Ellis: Lean Democratic
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Likely Democratic
Ellis: Lean Democratic
Rothenberg: Democrat Favored
Cook: Lean Democratic
Ellis: Lean Democratic
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Likely Democratic
Ellis: Lean Democratic
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Repulican Toss Up
Ellis: Lean Republican
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Lean Democratic
Ellis: Lean Democratic
Democrat
Republican
Gene Jeffress
Tom Cotton
Cumulative Voting Record of Incumbent
David Schapira; Kyrsten Sinema; Andrei Cherny
Jonathan Paton; Patrick Gatti; Gaither Martin; Douglas Wade
Martha McSally; Mark Koskiniemi; Jesse Kelly
Travis Grantham; Don Stapley; Wendy Rogers; Vernon Parker; Lisa Borowsky; Jay Tibshraeny; Jeff Thompson; Martin Sepulveda; Leah Campos Schandlbauer
John Garamendi
Kim Dolbow Vann
31%
Ami Bera
Dan Lungren
90%
Jerry McNerney
Ricky Gill
33%
Ann Kirkpatrick; Wenona Benally Baldenegro
Ron Barber; Matt Heinz
Bold denotes Incumbent
Former Member of Congress‐‐Voting Record
Ann Kirkpatrick: 56% (111th Congress)
NAM 2012 Competitive House Races List
CA‐10
CA‐24
CA‐26
CA‐41
CA‐47
CA‐52
Rothenberg: Lean Republican
Cook: Lean Republican
Ellis: Lean Republican
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Lean Democratic
Ellis: Lean Democratic
Rothenberg: Lean Republican
Cook: Republican Toss Up
Ellis: Lean Republican
Jose Hernandez
Jeff Denham
94%
Lois Capps
Abel Maldonado
28%
Julia Brownley
Tony Strickland
Rothenberg: Toss Up/Tilt Democrat
Cook: Lean Democrat
Mark Takano
Ellis: Lean Republican
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Likely Democratic
Ellis: Toss Up
Alan Lowenthal
Rothenberg: Toss Up/ Tilt Republican
Cook: Republican Toss Up
Ellis: Lean Republican
Scott Peters
CO‐06
Rothenberg: Toss Up/Tilt Republican
Cook: Lean Republican
Ellis: Lean Republican
Sal Pace
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Republican Toss Up
Ellis: Lean Republican
Joe Miklosi
CT‐05
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Likely Democratic
Ellis: Lean Democratic
CO‐03
Chris Donovan; Elizabeth Esty; Dan Roberti
John Tavaglione
Gary DeLong
Brian Bilbray
81%
Scott Tipton
90%
Mike Coffman
Justin Bernier; Mike Clark; Lisa Wilson‐
Foley; Wayne Winsley; Andrew Roraback 81%
Bold denotes Incumbent
NAM 2012 Competitive House Races List
FL‐02
Rothenberg: Lean Republican
Cook: Lean Republican
Ellis: Lean Republican
FL‐22
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Democratic Toss Up
Ellis: Lean Democratic
Rothenberg: Lean Republican
Cook: Not Rated
Ellis: Lean Republican
Rothenberg: Toss Up/ Tilt Republican
Cook: Republican Toss Up
Ellis: Toss Up
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Lean Democrat
Ellis: Lean Democratic
FL‐26
Rothenberg: Lean Republican
Cook: Lean Republican
Ellis: Toss Up
GA‐12
Rothenberg: Lean Republican
Cook: Lean Republican
Ellis: Lean Democratic
FL‐09
FL‐16
FL‐18
IA‐03
IA‐04
Leonard Bembry; Al Lawson; Alvin Peters; Mark Schlakman
Steve Southerland
Julius Melendez; Todd Long; John Quinones; Mark Oxner
Alan Grayson
Keith Fitzgerald
Vern Buchanan
Patrick Murphy; Jerry Allen West; Bob Buechler; Jim Horn Crowder
Lois Frankel; Kristin Jacobs
Adam Hasner
Gloria Romero Roses; Joe Garcia; Gustavo Marin; Lamar Sternad
David Rivera
Lee Anderson; Rick Allen; Wright McLeod; Maria Sheffield
John Barrow
Rothenberg: Toss Up/Tilt Republican
Cook: Democratic Toss Up
Ellis: Toss Up
Leonard Boswell
Rothenberg: Lean Republican
Cook: Lean Republican
Ellis: Lean Republican
Christie Vilsack
Tom Latham
Steve King
Bold denotes Incumbent
82%
Alan Grayson: 33% (111th Congress)
78%
88%
94%
50%
Boswell: 36%
Latham: 96%
88%
NAM 2012 Competitive House Races List
IL‐08
IL‐10
IL‐11
IL‐12
IL‐13
IL‐17
IN‐02
MA‐06
MD‐06
MI‐01
Rothenberg: Democrat Favored
Cook: Likely Democratic
Ellis: Likely Democrat
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Lean Democratic
Ellis: Toss Up
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Republican Toss Up
Ellis: Lean Democrat
Rothenberg: Toss Up/ Tilt Republican
Cook: Democratic Toss Up
Ellis: Toss Up
Rothenberg: Toss Up/ Republican Tilt
Cook: Lean Republican
Ellis: Lean Republican
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Republican Toss Up
Ellis: Toss Up
Rothenberg: Republican Favored
Cook: Lean Republican
Ellis: Lean Republican
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Lean Democratic
Ellis: Safe Democratic
Rothenberg: Democrat Favored
Cook: Likely Democratic
Ellis: Lean Democrat
Rothenberg: Toss Up/Tilt R
Cook: Republican Toss Up
Ellis: Lean Republican
Tammy Duckworth
Joe Walsh
92%
Brad Schneider
Robert Dold
85%
Bill Foster
Judy Biggert
95%
John Bradley
Jason Plummer
David Gill
Rodney Davis
Cheri Bustos
Bobby Schilling
Brendan Mullen
Jackie Walorski
John Tierney
Richard Tisei; Bill Hudak
John Delaney
Roscoe Bartlett
77%
Gary McDowell
Dan Benishek
97%
Bold denotes Incumbent
97%
9%
NAM 2012 Competitive House Races List
NC‐07
Rothenberg: Toss Up/ Tilt Republican
Cook: Likely Republican
Ellis: Lean Republican
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Republican Toss Up
Ellis: Toss Up
Rothenberg: Lean Republican
Cook: Democratic Toss Up
Ellis: Toss Up
NC‐08
Rothenberg: Republican Favored
Cook: Lean Republican
Ellis: Lean Republican
MI‐11
MN‐08
NC‐11
NC‐13
NH‐01
NH‐02
NJ‐03
Rothenberg: Republican Favored
Cook: Likely Republican
Ellis: Likely Republican
Rothenberg: Not Rated
Cook: Likely Republican
Ellis: Lean Republican
Rothenberg: Lean Republican
Cook: Lean Republican
Ellis: Toss Up
William Roberts ; Syed Taj
Kerry Bentivolio; Loren Bennett; Nancy Cassis; Kimberly Small; Rocky Raczkowski
Rick Nolan; Tarryl Clark; Jeff Anderson
Chip Cravaack
94%
Mike McIntyre
David Rouzer
42%
Larry Kissell
Scott Keadle; Richard Hudson
57%
Hayden Rogers
Mark Meadows
Charles Malone
George Holding
Carol Shea‐Porter; Diane Soracco
Frank Guinta; Vern Clough; Rick Parent
Charlie Bass;
Gerard Beloin; Will Dean; Miroslaw Dziedzic ; Dennis Lamare
Rothenberg: Toss Up/Tilt Democrat
Cook: Republican Toss Up
Ellis: Toss Up
Ann McLane Kuster
Rothenberg: Lean Republican
Cook: Lean Republican
Ellis: Lean Republican
Shelley Adler
Jon Runyan
Bold denotes Incumbent
97%
85%
91%
Carol Shea‐Porter: 30% (110‐111th Congress)
NAM 2012 Competitive House Races List
NV‐03
NV‐04
NY‐01
NY‐11
NY‐18
NY‐19
NY‐21
NY‐24
NY‐25
NY‐27
Rothenberg: Toss Up/ Republican Tilt
Cook: Republican Toss Up
Ellis: Lean Republican
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Likely Democratic
Ellis: Lean Democratic
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Lean Democrat
Ellis: Likely Democrat
Rothenberg: Toss Up/ Tilt Republican
Cook: Lean Republican
Ellis: Lean Republican
Rothenberg: Toss Up/ Tilt Republican
Cook: Republican Toss Up
Ellis: Lean Republican
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Republican Toss Up
Ellis: Lean Republican
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Lean Democrat
Ellis: Toss Up
John Oceguera
Joe Heck
94%
Steven Horsford
Danny Tarkanian
Tim Bishop
George Demos; Randy Altschuler
17%
Mark Murphy; Alex Borgognone
Michael Grimm
91%
Sean Maloney; Tom Wilson; Rich Becker; Matt Alexander
Nan Hayworth
85%
Julian Schriebman; Joel Tyner
Chris Gibson
88%
Bill Owens
Matt Doheny
56%
Rothenberg: Toss Up/Tilt Democrat
Cook: Lean Democrat
Ellis: Toss Up
Dan Maffei
Rothenberg: Democrat Favored
Cook: Lean Democratic
Ellis: Likely Democratic
Louise Slaughter
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Democratic Toss Up
Ellis: Lean Republican
Kathy Hochul
Ann Marie Buerkle
91%
Maggie Brooks
17%
David Bellavia; Chris Collins
54%
Bold denotes Incumbent
Dan Maffei (111th Congress): 39%
NAM 2012 Competitive House Races List
OH‐06
OH‐07
OH‐16
OK‐02
PA‐08
PA‐12
RI‐01
TX‐23
UT‐04
Rothenberg: Lean Republican
Cook: Lean Republican
Ellis: Lean Republican
Rothenberg: Lean Republican
Cook: Likely Republican
Ellis: Lean Republican
Rothenberg: Toss Up/ Tilt Republican
Cook: Republican Toss Up
Ellis: Lean Republican
Rothenberg: Republican Favored
Cook: Lean Republican
Ellis: Lean Republican
Rothenberg: Lean Republican
Cook: Lean Republican
Ellis: Lean Republican
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Democratic Toss Up
Ellis: Toss Up
Rothenberg: Toss Up/Tilt Democrat
Cook: Democratic Toss Up
Ellis: Likely Democratic
Rothenberg: Toss Up/ Tilt Republican
Cook: Republican Toss Up
Ellis: Toss Up
Rothenberg: Toss Up/ Tilt Republican
Cook: Democratic Toss Up
Ellis: Toss Up
Charlie Wilson
Bill Johnson
Joyce Healy‐Abrams Bob Gibbs
Betty Sutton
Jim Renacci
Charlie Wilson: 35% (110‐111th 100%
Congress)
100%
Sutton: 27%
Renacci: 100%
Rob Wallace; Wayne Markwayne Mullin; Herriman
George Faught
Kathryn Boockvar
Mike Fitzpatrick
57%
Mark Critz
Keith Rothfus
60%
David Cicilline; Anthony Gemma; David Segal
Brendan Doherty
21%
Pete Gallego; Ciro D. Rodriguez
Francisco Canseco
94%
Jim Matheson
66%
Mia Love
Bold denotes Incumbent
Ciro D. Rodriquez: 37% (110‐111th Congress)
NAM 2012 Competitive House Races List
VA‐02
Rothenberg: Lean Republican
Cook: Lean Republican
Ellis: Lean Republican
WI‐07
Paul Hirschbiel
Scott Rigell
Andrew Hughes; Darshan Rauniyar; Laura Ruderman; Roger Goodman; Rothenberg: Toss Up/Tilt Democrat Steve Hobbs; Suzan DelBene; Darcy Greg Anders; John Cook: Lean Democrat
Burner Koster
Ellis: Lean Democratic
Rothenberg: Lean Republican
Cook: Lean Republican
Ellis: Lean Republican
Pat Kreitlow
Sean Duffy
WI‐08
Rothenberg: Republican Favored
Cook: Lean Republican
Ellis: Lean Republican
WA‐01
Jamie Wall
Reid Ribble
Bold denotes Incumbent
94%
100%
97%
NAM 2012 Competitive Senate Races List
State
AZ
CT
FL
Competitiveness Rating
Democrat
Rothenberg: Lean Republican
Cook: Likely Republican
Ellis: Likely Republican
Richard Carmona
Rothenberg: Currently Safe Democrat
Cook: Likely Democratic
Susan Bysiewicz; Chris Ellis: Likely Democratic
Murphy Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Lean Democrat
Bill Nelson; Glenn Ellis: Lean Democrat
Burkett
Independent
Jeff Flake; Wil Cardon; Bryan Hackbarth; Clair Van Steenwyk; Doug McKee; Luis Acle
Chris Shays; Linda McMahon Marielena Montesino de Stuart; Mike McCalister; Connie Mack; Deon Long; Dave Weldon
23%
Ed Case; Mazie Hirono; Michael Gillespie; John Carroll; Linda Lingle; Antonio Gimbernat; Art John Roco; Charles Collins; Reyes
Eddie Pirkowski
IN
Rothenberg: Lean Democrat
Cook: Toss Up
Ellis: Lean Democrat
Rothenberg: Lean Republican
Cook: Lean Republican
Ellis: Lean Republican
MA
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Toss Up
Ellis: Toss Up
Scott Brown
HI
Republican
Cumulative Voting Record of Incumbent
Joe Donnelly
Richard Mourdock
Elizabeth Warren
Bold denotes Incumbent
100%
NAM 2012 Competitive Senate Races List
MI
Rothenberg: Democrat Favored
Cook: Toss Up
Ellis: Lean Democrat
Rothenberg: Democrat Favored
Cook: Lean Democrat
Ellis: Likely Democrat
MO
Rothenberg: Toss Up/ Tilt Republican
Cook: Toss Up
Ellis: Toss Up
Claire McCaskill
ME
MT
ND
NE
NJ
NM
Cynthia Dill
Debbie Stabenow
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Toss Up
Ellis: Toss Up
Jon Tester
Rothenberg: Lean Republican
Cook: Toss Up
Ellis: Lean Republican
Heidi Heitkamp
Rothenberg: Republican Favored
Cook: Likely Republican
Ellis: Lean Republican
Bob Kerrey
Rothenberg: Currently Safe Democrat
Cook: Likely Democratic
Ellis: Safe Democrat
Robert Menendez
Rothenberg: Toss Up/ Tilt Democrat
Cook: Toss Up
Ellis: Lean Democrat
Martin Heinrich
Charlie Summers
Randy Hekman; Peter Hoekstra; Gary Glenn; Clark Durant Sarah Steelman; Todd Akin; John Brunner; Mike Memoly; Jerry Beck; Mark Lodes; Hector Maldonad; Bob Poole Dennis Rehberg
INDEPENDENT: Andrew Ian Dodge; Angus King; Steve Woods; Danny Dalton
18%
17%
Rick Berg
Deb Fischer
Joe Kyrillos
Heather Wilson
Bold denotes Incumbent
12%
NAM 2012 Competitive Senate Races List
PA
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Toss Up
Ellis: Lean Republican
Shelley Berkley
Rothenberg: Toss Up/ Tilt Democrat
Cook: Lean Democrat
Ellis: Lean Democrat
Sherrod Brown
Rothenberg: Currently Safe Democrat
Cook: Likely Democratic
Ellis: Likely Democratic
Bob Casey
VA
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Toss Up
Ellis: Toss Up
Tim Kaine
George Allen
WI
Rothenberg: Pure Toss Up
Cook: Toss Up
Ellis: Toss Up
Tammy Baldwin
Mark Neumann; Tommy Thompson; Jeff Fitzgerald; Eric Hovde; John Schiess
NV
OH
Dean Heller
88%
Josh Mandel
9%
Tom Smith
Bold denotes Incumbent
17%