www.progressivefuelslimited.com
1865 Veterans Park Dr. Suite 303
Naples, Florida 34109
239.390.2885
PFL Weekly RIN Recap
Sep 22, 2016 To Sep 28, 2016
RINS started the day early on Monday with levels flat to Friday. E16 traded $0.87 gaining some strength but only reaching levels of $0.8725. The B16 started the week maintaining their +11 penny spread on the E16 only trading in small volumes. E17 and B17 trading activity increased. Also on Monday D3 markets tightened as several refiners appear to be closing out there 2016 obligations. On Tuesday RIN trading picked up with E16 trading up to a $0.88 with the majority of the volume going through at $0.87 and $0.875. B16 hung just below the $1 level. On Wednesday the conference commenced and activity was somewhat muted. RINS remained flat with the high of the day transacting at $0.885. The B16 broke through the $1 mark with 2017 RINS experiencing increased interest.Thursday the RIN market traded in sparse volume as the conference in Chicago crosses into the second day. Levels were flat to Wednesday with levels seen in the market at 87/ 88. The E15/ E16 spread was found at +5. B16 for the session remained at the $1 level with limited interest.
Low
High
Close
D6 - 15
87.00
D6 - 16
86.75
D6 - 17
86.75
D5 - 15
98.75
D5 - 16
97.25
D5 - 17
98.75
D4 - 15
99.75
D4 - 16
98.25
D4 - 17
99.75
D3 - 15
159.00
D3 - 16
203.00
D3 - 17
230.00
89.00
87.29
88.75
87.00
87.50
87.04
102.00
100.15
100.00
98.63
102.00
100.10
103.00
101.20
101.00
99.63
103.00
101.10
161.00
160.00
207.00
205.00
240.00
235.00
RBOB/Ethanol
CBOT ETHANOL
RBOB
Month
Settle
Month
Settle
Oct 16
1.5400
Oct 16
1.4668
Nov 16
1.4710
Nov 16
1.4421
Dec 16
1.4200
Dec 16
1.4142
Jan 17
1.3890
Jan 17
1.4107
Etoh - RBOB Diff
Imp. E85 Price w/RINS
Month
Settle
Month
Calc
Oct 16
0.07
Oct 16
0.7870
Nov 16
0.03
Nov 16
0.7247
Dec 16
0.01
Dec 16
0.6771
Jan 17
(0.02)
Jan 17
0.6503
1.69
RBOB
1.59
Etoh
1.49
E85 w/o
RINs
1.39
1.29
1.19
8/4/2016
8/19/2016
9/3/2016
9/18/2016
RIN Values - 2016
BO Futures
ULSD Futures
Oct 16
33.09
Oct 16
1.5102
Dec 16
33.34
Nov 16
1.5191
Jan 17
33.58
Dec 16
1.5297
33.83
Jan 17
1.5432
Mar 17
ULSD + RIN Value
Oct 16
3.005
Nov 16
3.014
Dec 16
3.024
Jan 17
3.038
D4 '15
D5 '15
D6 '15
D4 '16
D6 '16
D5 '17
D4 '17
D6 '17
D5 '16
107
102
97
92
87
82
77
72
67
62
1/8/2016
2/22/2016
4/7/2016
5/22/2016
7/6/2016
8/20/2016
Ethanol Destination Values
Spot Arb Snapshot (cpg)
D5 - D6 Diff
FOB Santos
Implied NYH
Anhydrous
Chicago
NYH
LA Ethanol
-11.25
535.00
568.25
159.63
163.25
169.50
185
175
165
155
145
135
2/18/2016
520
500
480
460
2/18/2016
Argo
NYH
LA
3/4/2016
3/19/2016
4/3/2016
Santos
3/4/2016
3/19/2016
4/3/2016
This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are not recommendations. This report is not
an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made
by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Copyright 2015 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved.
RIN Values - 15 Day - D4 D5 D6
D4 '15
D5 '15
D6 '15
D4 '16
D5 '16
D6 '16
D6 '17
D5 '17
D4 '17
107
102
97
92
87
82
77
9/9/2016
9/11/2016
9/13/2016
9/15/2016
9/17/2016
9/19/2016
9/21/2016
9/23/2016
9/25/2016
9/27/2016
RIN Values - D3
D3 '15
D3 '16
D3 '17
255
230
205
180
155
130
105
11/25/2015
12/30/2015
2/3/2016
3/9/2016
4/13/2016
5/18/2016
6/22/2016
7/27/2016
8/31/2016
PFL 2015-16 D6 Outlook
2016 Projections (September STEO)
EIA Projected Gasoline Consumption (STEO est.)
Fuel Ethanol Blended into Gasoline (STEO est.)
Fuel Ethanol production (STEO est)
Ethanol demand at 10% (calc)
9,360
940
990
936
mb/d
mb/d
mb/d
mb/d
Chg from Aug
‐330
10
0
23
September ' 15
9,270
940
950
927
2016 D6 RINs
Weekly average Ethanol production
Most recent 4 week average
YTD avg
D6 RINs from ethanol based on ytd avg.
963.0
999.5
953.4
14,616
week ended
4 wks ended
through
million RINs
Jan‐Dec EMTS D6 RIN data
Annualized D6 Production based on EMTS
8,707.0
10,454
million RINs
million RINs
9/23/2016
9/23/2016
9/23/2016
RFS2 Data
2015 RVO
2016 RVO
2017 RVO
Advanced
2.88 billion gal
Advanced
3.61 billion gal
Advanced
4.00 billion gal
Cellulosic
123 million gal
Cellulosic
230 million gal
Cellulosic
312 million gal
Biomass-based
1.73 billion gal
Biomass-based
1.90 billion gal
Biomass-based
2.00 billion gal
Renewable
16.93 billion gal
Renewable
18.11 billion gal
Renewable
18.8 billion gal
Prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited T: 239.390.2885
chris@progressivefuelslimited.com