DECEMBER 2013
Global Semiconductor
Packaging Materials Outlook
E X E C U T I V E S U MMA RY
Produced by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials
International and TechSearch International, Inc.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1
1INTRODUCTION
5
1.1 Methodology
1.2 Assumptions
1.3 Report Organization
5
6
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2 SEMICONDUCTOR PACKAGING AND INDUSTRY TRENDS
8
2.1 Semiconductor Industry Trends
2.2 Regional Trends—The China Market
2.3 Packaging Materials Needs and Trends
2.4 Packages and Electronic End-market Applications
3SUBSTRATES
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17
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3.1 Laminate Substrates
3.2 Build-up Substrates
3.3 Organic Substrate Technology Trends
3.4 Organic Substrate Material Markets and Forecasts
3.5 Organic Substrate Pricing
3.6 Organic Substrate Supply
3.7 Flex Circuit/Tape Substrates
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4LEADFRAMES
27
4.1 Leadframe Market and Technology Trends
28
4.2 Leadframe Markets
4.3 Leadframe Market Forecasts
4.4 Leadframe Supply
30
34
37
5 BONDING WIRE
46
5.1 Bonding Wire Market and Technology Trends
48
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
51
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61
Bonding Wire
Bonding Wire
Bonding Wire
Bonding Wire
Markets
Pricing
Market Forecasts
Supply
Continued
Copyright © 2013 SEMI®
Please RESPECT COPYRIGHT LAWS and do not distribute
this document unless a company-wide site license has
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Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI®) and TechSearch
International, Inc. have cooperated in the development of Global Semiconductor
Packaging Materials Outlook, a comprehensive market research study on the semiconductor packaging materials markets. Interviews were conducted with more than
150 semiconductor manufacturers, packaging subcontractors, fabless semiconductor
companies, and packaging material suppliers to gather information for this report.
The following semiconductor packaging materials sectors are covered: substrates,
leadframes, bonding wire, mold compounds, underfill materials, liquid encapsulants,
die attach materials, solder balls, wafer level package dielectrics, and thermal interface materials. All of the information contained in this report was developed by
SEMI and/or TechSearch International.
Mobile electronics are the major unit volume drivers for semiconductor device
sales and pushing the development of advance process and packaging technologies.
Specific for mobile electronics, packaging technologies such as wafer-level packaging (WLP), flip chip packaging for wireless, stacked-die memory, and package-onpackage (PoP) have delivered the necessary device integration needed in a thinner
and smaller electronics systems. Packaging solutions will continue to evolve to
address future demands related to thin packaging, higher bandwidth requirements,
and addressing both power management and device latency issues. For device
manufacturers, these developments need to offer cost effective solutions suitable in
high-volume manufacturing and, to achieve this, on-going advancements in material
technologies will be essential.
Despite the strength accompanying the growth in mobile electronics, the overall
semiconductor industry has experienced a period of sluggishness in terms of sales
following the 2010 recovery. 2013 marks the third consecutive year of merely
modest expectations for industry growth, with low single-digit growth expected.
The general outlook over the next few years continues to show modest single digit
growth in both industry revenues and unit shipments. Coupled with cost reduction
efforts, the low growth trends present a challenge for companies across the supply
chain, including material suppliers, in deciding which markets and applications to
invest R&D resources.
Advanced packaging remains the main driver for materials consumption and new
materials development, and the outlook for these packages remain strong. These
packages include ball grid array (BGA), chip scale packaging (CSP) (including
leadframe-based), flip chip, WLPs, and various 3-D packages such as stacked-die and
PoP. Flip chip packaged units will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
of 25% between 2012 and 2017 with wireless products driving the growth. Over
the same timeframe, WLP, which has already experience strong growth in unit shipments, is forecasted to grow at an 11% CAGR due to the strength in the mobile
sector. Stacked-die packages will grow at a CAGR over 5%.
In discussions with material suppliers and their customers, cost issues dominate
the discussion as the end electronics market demands low cost solutions for the
consumer. Gold metal pricing has garnered a lot of attention and is driving the
conversion to copper and now silver bonding wire. Low-cost solutions are also
called for high-density laminates, matrix leadframe design, underfill material, die
attach film, and so on. Suppliers and customers continue to look for solutions to
GLOB AL SEMICONDUCTOR PACKAGING MATERIALS OUTLOOK
6 MOLD COMPOUNDS
6.1  Mold
6.2 Mold
6.3 Mold
6.4 Mold
65
Compound Technology Trends
Compound Markets
Compound Market Forecasts
Compound Supply
66
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69
7 Underfill Materials
72
7.1 Underfill Technology Trends
7.2Underfill Material Market and Forecast
7.3 Underfill Supply
72
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8 Liquid Encapsulants
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
Liquid
Liquid
Liquid
Liquid
Encapsulant Technology Trends
Encapsulant Markets
Encapsulant Market Forecasts Encapsulant Supply
9 Die Attach Materials
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4
Die Attach Technology Trends
Die Attach Markets
Die Attach Market Forecasts
Die Attach Supply • Substrates will need to have thinner cores and be fabricated with lower
coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) and high modules materials. Dielectric
properties include low Z-axis expansion, low dielectric constant (Dk ≤ 4),
low dissipation factor over a wide frequency band (Df ≤ 0.01)
79
• Lower CTE substrate materials for warpage control
88
11.1 Wafer Level Package Dielectrics
88
Technology Trends
11.2 Wafer Level Package Dielectrics 89
Market and Forecast
11.3 Wafer Level Package Dielectrics Supply 89
12 Thermal Interface Materials
91
12.1 Thermal Interface Material Selection
12.2 Thermal Interface Material Types
12.3 Thermal Interface Material Applications
12.4 Advances in Thermal Interface Materials
12.5 Thermal Interface Material Market and Forecast
12.6 Thermal Interface Material Supply
13 Summary and Conclusions
13.1 Acknowledgements
14 APPENDICES
A List of Acronyms and Abbreviations
B Packaging Materials Supplier Web Site
C List of Figures and Table
D About the Authors
• Substrates for bump pitch reductions to 50 to 60 µm pitches that are found
on roadmaps corresponding with the introduction of 14 nm node silicon
• Thinner substrates for packages in mobile products
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11 Wafer Level Package Dielectrics
• Cost reductions across all material and process sets
76
85
10.1 Solder Ball Material Technology Trends
10.2 Solder Ball Market and Forecast
10.3 Solder Ball Supply
Advancements and changes continue in the semiconductor packaging materials
market, and over the next several years some opportunity areas include:
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10 Solder Balls
reduce material usage and to improve manufacturing throughput and efficiencies.
Companies across the supply chain will need to collaborate to balance the needs
of new materials development and cost reduction efforts.
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105
• On-going develop of leadframe surface treatments and plating process
technologies to improve package reliability
• Continuing development of low cost solutions for handling thin leadframe
CSP strips
• Precision down set option for stamp leadframes as a low cost option
for thin leadframe packages
• Softer Pd-coated copper wire for circuit under pad applications
• Lower resistivity silver wire
• Mold compounds, liquid encapsulants, and die attach materials with
low ionic levels compatible with copper and silver wire bonding
• Moisture Level Sensitivity 1 mold compounds and encapsulants for
bare copper wire, Pd-coated copper wire, and silver alloy wire
• Better/more thermally conductive mold compounds and die attach materials
for power devices. For die attach, this includes conductive die attach films
• For mold compounds, low a1 materials with high thermal
conductivity properties
• DAF materials with thickness 10 µm and under.
• Liquid encapsulants formulations with improved flow properties
for fine pitch applications
• Underfill materials with High Tg, low CTE, and no assembly voids
• No-flow underfill materials
• Plastic or copper core solder balls to achieve higher standoff and
improve reliability
• Integrating WLP dielectrics into larger die size and higher I/O applications
• WLP materials to deliver the performance and reliability needed for
automotive and LED applications
• Lower cost materials for Fan Out WLP and materials that support
panel production
2
GLOB AL SEMICONDUCTOR PACKAGING MATERIALS OUTLOOK
• TIM materials compatible with low pressure processing
during assembly
• Alternatives to the typical epoxy or acrylic resin for TIMs,
including filler technologies such as carbon nanotubes or
new approaches using graphene
• Need for gap fillers that are not subject to pumping or
dry out is also driving development.
In total, the semiconductor packaging materials covered
in this investigation are forecasted to grow from $18.7
billion in 2013 on a global basis to almost $20.0 billion
in 2017, excluding thermal interface materials. This represents a CAGR of just 1.3%. Excluding gold wire, CAGR
increases to 3.6%. Cost reduction efforts, downward pricing pressures, growth in smaller and thinner packages,
and modest overall semiconductor unit growth all contribute to the revenue growth outlook for packaging materials.
Thermal interface materials will add $620 million and over
$700 million in 2013 and 2017, respectively, to the packaging
materials market.
The global market for laminate substrates for IC packages
is forecasted to experience a CAGR of just 1% from 2013
through 2017 on the basis of square meters of materials processed. The growth rate for flip chip CSP laminates remains
strong, while wire bond PBGA substrates will decline over
the forecast period.
Overall leadframe shipments will be about 537 billion units
in 2013 as leadframes remain a key substrate technology for
packaging semiconductors. In recent years, unit growth has
slowed, and revenues are expected to decline some over the
forecast period. In addition, several leadframes production
facilities have closed over the past few years and additional
supplier consolidation is expected in the years ahead.
The transition to alternative wire materials from gold bonding
wire continues across the semiconductor industry. Total wire
shipments hit close to 20 billion meters shipped in 2013 with
copper bonding wire representing about 44% of the wire
shipments. Silver wire is also ramping up and will be about
6% of the shipments in 2013. Gold represents 50% of the
shipments and could represent just one third of the 24 billion
meters of wire forecasted to be shipped in 2017.
For mold compounds, revenues are estimated to reach
$1.39 billion in 2013 and increase by one percent CAGR
through 2017. This market will grow because of overall
device unit growth, but aggregate use per device/package
on the whole will continue to decline with thinner packages,
multichip packages, matrix leadframe and substrate configurations, and more efficient mold designs.
The main application for underfill today is flip chip packaging.
Interest in pre-applied materials is strong given the challenges
in dispensing underfill as bump pitches and heights become
finer. CSP, BGA, and some WLP use package underfill to
improve drop test performance for mobile products. The
total underfill market will be an estimated $208 million in
2013 and will grow at a CAGR of about 7% through 2017.
Liquid encapsulant revenues will be $849 million in 2013
and will increase to over $1.6 billion by 2017. LED packaging
applications are driving most of the revenue value growth
over the forecast period.
As covered in previous report editions, the die attach film
(DAF) market continues to experience strong unit growth
and though revenues have weakened with more competition
in the market. Improved thermally conductive pastes and films
are desired in the market, and suppliers continue to focus on
material advancements to enhance such performance. The
die attach materials market will reach $665 million in 2013
and is estimated to grow by a 3.6% CAGR through to 2017.
Solder ball revenues will be $280 million in 2013 and will
grow by over 10% CAGR through. The revenues are much
lower compared to figures presented in the previous report
as lower metal prices and the entrance of new suppliers from
China has spurred dramatic declines in pricing.
The WLP dielectrics market is forecasted to grow from
$94 million by over 10% CAGR to 2017. Historically, the
devices packaged in WLPs were small die sizes with low
pin counts (<100), but new product introductions having
higher pin counts (up to 500) and die sizes are available.
Interest in fan-out applications is growing, though lower costs
solutions are desired so to drive a broader adoption of this
WLP technology.
Thermal interface material (TIM) is needed to manage
thermal performance as power density requirements increase
in many device applications. Thermal management is a major
concern in stacking devices in 3D IC architectures. Also
alternative materials and approaches are being developed
so to advance TIM performance. The TIM market will be
$620 million in 2013 and is grow by about 4% CAGR
to 2017.
Estimated 2013 global market size and key trends in each
semiconductor packaging materials segment are summarized
in the following Table, on page 4.
3
GLOB AL SEMICONDUCTOR PACKAGING MATERIALS OUTLOOK
Semiconductor Packaging
Materials Segment
Estimated 2013
Global Market Size $M
Comments
Laminate Substrates
$7,361
Wireless applications continue migrate from wire bond CSP to
flip chip CSP. Coreless structures still in development. IC package
substrate production has transitioned from Japan to Taiwan and
will slowly expand into China. Downward pricing pressures
Flex Circuit/Tape Substrates
$47
This market continues to decline due to transition to
thin rigid laminate.
$3,342
Leadframes
LFCSP and LED remain the unit growth drivers. Plant closures
and consolidation underway
Bonding Wire
$4,455
Gold has declined to about 50% share of shipments. Numerous
new suppliers in the market to provide copper and silver wire
Mold Compounds
$1,394
Reliability requirements and warpage control continue to drive
materials development. Materials compatible with copper and
silver bonding wire
Underfill Materials
$208
Low stress for low-k and ultra low-k Film underfill is under
development by several companies. Downward pricing pressures
for flip chip underfill
Liquid Encapsulants
$849
Strong market growth due to LED applications.
Emerging supplier base in China for the LED market
$665
Die Attach Materials
DAF materials continue to show strong unit growth.
Strong interest in conductive DAF materials
Solder Balls
$280
Lead-free balls a majority shipments. Lower metal pricing
and emergence of new suppliers in China have lowered
revenue growth. Improved mechanical performance drives
material development.
Wafer Level Package Dielectrics
$94
Growth in fan-out design for high I/O die.
New product introductions higher pin count up to 500 I/O
Thermal Interface Materials
$620
New phase change materials (PCMs) and thermal gels are
becoming competitive with high-end greases in performance
and price. Low viscosity and fast cure materials for thin bondlines
Source: SEMI Industry Research and Statistics and TechSearch International, November 2013
4
GLOB AL SEMICONDUCTOR PACKAGING MATERIALS OUTLOOK
CLI ST OF TA B LES A N D F IGUR E S
List of Figures
FIGURE 2.1 Global Semiconductor Sales and Unit Shipments FIGURE 2.2 Percent Change in Annual Shipments for IC Units, Silicon Wafer Area, and IC Leadframes
FIGURE 2.3 Fab CAPEX and Installed Fab Capacity Trends FIGURE 2.4 Installed Fab Capacity by Product Segment FIGURE 2.5 Global Sales for Assembly and Packaging Equipment FIGURE 2.6 Quarterly Revenues of Four Packaging and Test Subcontractors
FIGURE 2.7 Silicon Area Shipment Forecast FIGURE 2.8 Monthly IC Leadframe Shipments for Japan and Rest of World Markets
FIGURE 2.9 Monthly Discrete Leadframe Shipments for Japan and Rest of World Markets
FIGURE 2.10 Revenues of the Three Largest Packaging Subcontractors in China
FIGURE 2.11 Packaging Materials Revenue Growth in China and Worldwide
FIGURE 2.12 Map of China Packaging Material Plant Locations Figure 4.1
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10
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12
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14
15
Figure 4.2
Leadframe Market Revenue Share by Company Headquarter Region
Etched Leadframe Revenue Share
by Company Headquarter Region
FIGURE 5.1 FIGURE 5.2 FIGURE 5.3 FIGURE 5.4 FIGURE 5.5 FIGURE 5.6 31
34
Monthly Average Gold Pricing Trends Share of Wire Shipment by Material Type
Silver Alloy Wire Production Volume at Siliconware
Shipment Share by Wire Type Total Copper Wire Shipment Share by Diameter Total Wire Shipment Share by Diameter (Excluding Silver Wire)
FIGURE 5.7 Comparison of Gold vs. Total Copper Wire by Diameter Category
FIGURE 5.8 Total Wire Shipments—Regional Share
FIGURE 5.9 Gold Wire Shipments—Regional Share FIGURE 5.10 Copper Wire Shipments—Regional Share FIGURE 5.11 Wire Market Forecast—By Wire Type 46
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List of Tables
TABLE 1.1 Companies Interviewed and Surveyed 5
Table 4.1
Worldwide Leadframe Sales
27
Table 1.2 Currency Exchange Rates per $1 U.S. Dollar
6
Table 4.2
Global Leadframe Markets
30
Table 1.3
Assumed Unit Growth Rates for Relevant Electronic End Equipment Markets
6
Table 4.3
Global SMD LED Units
30
Table 1.4 Assumed Global Semiconductor Revenue Forecast
6
Table 4.4
Global Power IC Leadframe Revenues (Includes TO220, TO247, TO251, TO252, TO263)
30
Table 1.5 Assumed Unit Growth Rates for Relevant Package Types
7
Table 4.5
Nickel Palladium Leadframe Markets
31
Table 4.6
Global Leadframe Units by Type
32
Regional Leadframe Revenues—Total Leadframes 33
Table 2.1
Assembly and Packaging Equipment Orders (in US$ Millions)
11
Table 4.7
Table 4.8
Regional Leadframe Revenues—Etched Leadframes
33
Table 2.2
Combined Revenues by Packaging Materials Segment 14
for China-headquartered Suppliers in China
(in US$ Millions)
Table 4.9
General Growth Trend Expectations for Various
Leadframe Package Families
35
Table 2.3
Summary of Issues and Concerns of Packaging 16
Subcontractors by Material Type
Table 4.10
Global Leadframe Forecast
35
Table 4.11
Global Leadframe Forecast by Type
36
Table 4.12
Global Leadframe Forecast by Region
36
Table 4.13
Sampling of Reported Leadframe Capacity Utilization
37
Table 4.14
Alloy Consumption, in Metric Tons, of 13 Leadframe Suppliers
38
Table 4.15
Leadframe Suppliers with Existing Manufacturing Capacity in Japan
39
Table 4.16
Leadframe Suppliers with Existing Manufacturing Capacity in Selected Asian Countries
40
Table 4.17
Overseas Companies with Leadframe Manufacturing 41
Facilities in China
Table 4.18
Domestic Leadframe Manufacturing Facilities in China 42
Table 4.19
Worldwide Leadframe Market Share for 2012
43
Table 2.4
General Development Activities/Needs for 17
Each Packaging Material Segment per ITRS
Table 2.5
Near-term Pitch Requirements Identified by the ITRS18
Table 2.6
Package Type Relation to End-market Application18
Table 3.1
Flip Chip Organic Build-up Substrate Features22
Table 3.2
Global Organic Substrate Volume Market 22
Demand Forecast
Table 3.3
Global Laminate Substrate Revenue Market 23
Demand Forecast
Table 3.4
Average Wire Bond Substrate Price Ranges 23
Table 3.5
Average Build-up Substrate Price Ranges23
Table 3.6
Major Laminate Substrate Suppliers and 24
Plant Locations
Table 4.20
Aggregate Share (% Revenue) of Top Leadframe Suppliers
43
Table 3.7
Worldwide Substrate Market Share Estimates 24
Table 4.21
44
Table 3.8
Global Flex Circuit/Tape Substrate Market 25
and Forecast for TBGAs
Estimated Top Ten Worldwide Leadframe Supplier Rankings for 2013
Table 4.22
44
Table 3.9
Global Flex Circuit/Tape Market and Forecast25
for Flex CSPs
Estimated Worldwide Stamped IC Leadframe Supplier Rankings for 2012
Table 4.23
Total IC Package Flex Circuit/Tape Substrate Forecast26
Estimated Worldwide Etched IC Leadframe Supplier Rankings for 2012
44
Table 3.10
Table 3.11
Selected Flex Circuit/Tape Substrate Suppliers26
and Plant Locations
Table 4.24
Worldwide Total IC Leadframe Supplier Top Ten
45
Rankings for 2012
Continued on page 104
103
GLOB AL SEMICONDUCTOR PACKAGING MATERIALS OUTLOOK
List of Tables Continued from page 103
Table 4.25
Table 4.26
Table 5.1
Table 5.2
Table 5.3
Table 5.4
Table 5.5
Table 5.6
Table 5.7
Table 5.8
Table 5.9
Table 5.10
Table 5.11
Table 5.12
Table 5.13
Table 5.14
Table 5.15
Table 5.16
Table 5.17
Table 5.18
Table 5.19
Table 5.20
Table 5.21
Table 5.22
Table 5.23
Table 5.24
Table 5.25
104
Worldwide Total Power and Discrete Leadframe
Supplier Ranking for 2012
Estimated 2012 Regional Leadframe Supplier Rankings by Revenue
45
Process Control Comparison
Fine Pitch Bonding Wire Roadmap
Siliconware Roadmap for Copper and Silver Wire
Global Bonding Wire Markets
Global Gold Bonding Wire Market by Diameter
Global Bare Copper Bonding Wire Market by Diameter
Global Palladium-Coated Copper Bonding Wire Market by Diameter
Total Copper Bonding Wire Markets
50
50
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45
Table 6.1
Table 6.2
Table 6.3
53
54
Global Silver Bonding Wire Markets
55
Total Bonding Wire Markets by Diameter 55
(Excluding Silver Wire)
Total Bonding Wire Shipments by Region
57
Gold Bonding Wire Shipments by Region
58
Total Copper Bonding Wire Shipments by Region 59
(including both Bare and PCC)
2013 Regional Bonding Wire Shipments 60
Regional Share
Aggregated Bonding Wire Price Ranges
60
Global Bonding Wire Forecast
60
Aggregated Capacity and Average Capacity 61
Utilization of Nine Wire Suppliers in 2013
Wire Supplier Plant Locations
62
Other China Headquartered Wire Suppliers
63
2012 Worldwide Total (Gold + Copper + Silver) 63
Wire Market Shares in Volume
Estimate 2013 Worldwide Total (Gold + Copper 63
+ Silver) Wire Market Shares in Volume
2012 Worldwide Gold Only Bonding Wire 64
Market Shares in Volume
Estimated 2013 Worldwide Gold Only Bonding Wire 64
Market Shares in Volume
2012 Worldwide Total Copper Bonding Wire Market 64
Shares in Volume
Estimated 2013 Worldwide Total Copper Bonding 64
Wire Market Shares in Volume
Table 6.4
Table 6.5
Global Mold Compound Markets
67
Estimated Global Green Mold Compound 67
Market Revenue Share
Global Mold Compound Unit Volumes by Type 68
of Package
Regional Mold Compound Markets
68
Global Mold Compound Forecast69
Table 6.6
Table 6.7
Mold Compound Suppliers and Plant Locations
Estimated Worldwide Mold Compound Market Shares in Revenue
70
71
Table 7.1
Table 7.2
Table 7.3
Global Flip Chip Underfill Market Forecast
Global Package Underfill Material Market Forecast Underfill Material Suppliers and Plant Locations
73
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75
Table 8.1
Table 8.2
Table 8.3
Table 8.4
Global Liquid Encapsulant Market by Segment
Estimated Regional Liquid Encapsulant Markets
Global Liquid Encapsulant Forecast
Liquid Encapsulant Suppliers and Plant
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78
Table 9.1
80
Table 9.4
Table 9.5
Table 9.6
Table 9.7
Table 9.8
Minimum Wafer Thickness for Thinned Wafer Applications Global Paste Die Attach Market
Global Die Attach Film Market (Includes Lead-on-Chip
and Stacked-die Package Applications)
Regional Paste Die Attach Markets
Regional Die Attach Film Markets
Total Regional Die Attach Markets
Global Die Attach Forecast
Die Attach Material Suppliers and Plant Locations
Table 10.1
Table 10.2
Global Solder Ball Market Forecast Solder Ball Suppliers and Plant Locations
85
86
Table 11.1
Table 11.2
Table 11.3
Wafer Level Package Trends
Global WLP Dielectric Material Market Forecast
Wafer Level Package Dielectric Suppliers and Plant Locations
88
89
90
Table 12.1
Table 12.2
Global Thermal Interface Material Market Forecast Selected Thermal Interface Material Suppliers and Plant Locations
94
96
Table 9.2
Table 9.3
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