PV Panels for the US
Make - not Buy!
Frank Faller
centrotherm photovoltaics USA Inc.
Silicon & Wafer
Solar cell & Module
Thin film module
Semiconductor
Centrotherm: Provider of Equipment and Turnkey Solutions
for the Production of ...
Poly Silicon
Ingot
Ingot
© centrotherm photovoltaics AG
Wafer
Wafer
Cell
2010 Texas Renewables, San Antonio Nov 7-10
Module
Module
PV Farm
2
Outline
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Introduction Centrotherm
Market
Value Chain Poly Silicon Route
PV Panel Production
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History: In PV Equipment Business since 1979
2010
 Major order for the construction of a poly-silicon factory in Qatar
 Cooperation with Reis Robotics in the area of integrated process and automation technology
2009
 Realization of the largest to-date turnkey solar cell production line of 250 MW annual capacity
 “First Silicon Out" at poly silicon equipment customers in Asia
 Expansion of turnkey product range: crystalline module production
2008
 Foundation of centrotherm SiTec GmbH - Bundling of expertise in the solar silicon area
 Foundation of sales and service companies in Italy and the USA
 Acquisition of FHR Anlagenbau GmbH (Sputtering equipment)
2007: IPO of centrotherm photovoltaics AG; Admission to the TecDAX
2006
 Entry into the solar silicon business
 Delivery of first turnkey solar cell production lines
2005: Foundation of centrotherm photovoltaics AG
2004 – 2003
 Separation of business units
 Foundation of centrotherm thermal solutions GmbH & Co. KG
2002 – 2001
 Cooperation agreement for research projects with the University of Konstanz, Germany
 Primary supplier of key equipment to well-known solar cell producers
2000
 Joint research projects with the Fraunhofer Institute für Solare Systeme, Germany
 Entry into the Asian market
1979: First photovoltaic products supplied to well-known Fraunhofer Gesellschaft and Telefunken Systemtechnik GmbH
1976: Foundation of centrotherm Elektrische Anlagen GmbH
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Centrotherm International Presence
CTPV Korea
centrotherm HQ, Blaubeuren
CTPV Shanghai
GP Solar, Constance
Marietta,
Georgia, USA
Zaporozhye, Ukraine (Project
company)
Treviso, Italy
Suwon, Korea
Shanghai, China
Taiwan
FHR, Dresden
Frankfurt/Oder
Hanover
Singapore
CTPV Taiwan
Ottendorf-Okrilla
Dresden
CTPV Singapore
Abensberg
Martinsried
Blaubeuren
Burghausen
Constance
Headquarters
Locations in Germany and International Sales & Service Companies
India and Qatar in foundation
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Group Structure
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Key Financial Figures 2009
Sales Breakdown by Region and Product 2009
Rest of World
Consulting &
Engineering
in million €
16.1 (3.2%)
46.3 (9.1%)
Service &
Replacement
parts
Rest of Europe
53.8 (10.6%)
47.2 (9.3%)
Total:
509.1
3.0 (0.6%)
Turnkey
Production
Lines
16.8 (3.3%)
Germany
Other
117.8 (23.1%)
Total:
Asia
361.9 (71.1%)
509.1
Single
Equipment
355.3 (69.8%)
Export Quota: 90.7%
Revenue 2010 as of June 30: € 278 million
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Market position of centrotherm photovoltaics AG
Source: VLSI Research
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Selected References
Silicon & Wafer
Solar cell & Module
Thin film module
Sunshine
Asia
Silicon
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2010 Texas Renewables, San Antonio Nov 7-10
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Outline
 Introduction Centrotherm
 Market
 Value Chain Poly Silicon Route
 PV Panel Production
© centrotherm photovoltaics AG
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US Renewable Resources
Resource
Solar PV/CSP)
Wind
Geothermal
Water Power
Biopower
Theoretical
Potential
206,000 GW
(PV)
11,100GW
(CSP)
8,000 GW
(onshore)
2,200 GW
(offshore to
50 nm)
39 GW
(conventional)
520 GW
(EGS)
4 GW
(co-produced)
140 GW
78 GW
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The Sun provides every hour as much energy as mankind
consumes in one year
Source: EPIA
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Global PV Production Capacities
Source: Photon International, March 2010
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Leading Companies
Source: Photon International, March 2010
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Market
Source: SEIA
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Market
Source: SEIA
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Largest PV Installation in the US
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Centrotherm Research
Market Development and Segmentation until 2013
GW
30
ground mounted systems
commercial roof top
residential roof top
25
20
26
19
Source: centrotherm photovoltaics, EuPD
14
15
c-Si
dominant
10
10
6
5
Thin film gaining
market share
7
3
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
• shortfall of Spanish market & finance crisis 2009 mainly affecting ground
mounted PV systems
• Additional FIT cut discussion in Germany for second half 2010
(no support for farmland solar system and 16% cut)
 nevertheless bright outlook dominated by c-Si technology
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EPIA: Market Scenarios until 2014
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EPIA: US Market Scenarios
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Cost of PV Electricity
Source: U.S. DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program.
Note: Retail price in most East Coast US states as well as California is 0.15 $ / kWh;
this gives rise to PV electrcity being competitive in these markets today
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PV Electricity vs. Actual Consumer Rate
• NREL study
looked at 1000
cities nationwide
•Meaningful population
centers at or near
„Grid Parity“
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PV Electricity vs. Actual Consumer Rate
+0.5% p.a.
• 2015 with 0.5%
annual rate hike
•Includes:
•ITC only
•Falling system
prices
•Almost half of market
below grid parity
• 98% within
5 cents/ kWh
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PV Electricity vs. Actual Consumer Rate
+1.0% p.a.
• 2015 with 1.0%
annual rate hike
•Includes:
•ITC only
•Falling system
prices
•Almost two thirds
of market below
grid parity
• 99% within
5 cents/ kWh
 no concern about
demand for PV
 But what does it mean for building manucacturing facilities??
© centrotherm photovoltaics AG
2010 Texas Renewables, San Antonio Nov 7-10
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“Unlimited” Market with Grid Parity (consumer electricity rate)
World at 2.5 €/Wp cost of installed PV system
Average household electricity price in €/kWh
0.40
0.35
Installed
System Price
2.50 € / Wp
0.30
0.25
Grid Blue Line:
Above
Parity
Grid Parity
Hawaii
Italy
0.20
Germany
Portugal
0.15
California
France
Spain
0.10
Australia
Greece
Texas
Taiwan
0.05
India
bubble size = market size
0.00
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
Sun Irradiation [kWh/m²/year]
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Outline
 Introduction Centrotherm
 Market
 Value Chain Poly Silicon Route
 PV Panel Production
© centrotherm photovoltaics AG
2010 Texas Renewables, San Antonio Nov 7-10
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Polysilicon Production
Silicon
Solar
Cell
Ingot/ Wafer

Module
Main stream today:
TCS / Siemens technology
Feedstock mg-Si: 1.3 – 1.6 t/t Polysilicon
Electricity consumption:
165 … > 200 kWh/kg


Other
10%
Key drivers of production cost
 Electricity (site selection!)
 CAPEX depreciation (=> output of reactors and
converter technology: )
Electricity
Production cost: 24 … 33 €/kg
(including feedstock: mg-Si)
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45% Depreciation
26%
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17%
Materials
2%
Labor cost
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Ingot/Wafer Manufacturing
Silicon
Solar
Cell
Ingot/ Wafer
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

Module
Competition between multi and mono
material
Key processes: crystallisation, bricking,
wafering
Wafer thickness typical 2010:
200 µm (low end 180 µm)
Key drivers of processing cost (multi):
 Line throughput (= CAPEX depreciation)
 Materials:
- crucibles
- slurry
- wire
Other
Electricity
4%
4%
Depreciation
30%
2%
Processing cost: 0.73 … 0.90 €/wafer
(excluding feedstock: polysilicon)
© centrotherm photovoltaics AG
2010 Texas Renewables, San Antonio Nov 7-10
Labor cost
60%
Materials
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Solar Cell Manufacturing
Silicon
Module
Solar Cell
Ingot/ Wafer
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Key drivers of processing cost
 Solar cell efficiency (=> Wp!)
 Line throughput (= CAPEX depreciation)
 Materials:
- Ag / Al pastes
- Process media
Solar cell device technology today: screen
printed cell moving towards selective emitter
technology
Typical production line size 50 – 100 MW
Industry average efficiency 2010: 15.8 –
16.6% on multi wafer
Electricity
3%
Other
5%
37%
Depreciation
52%
Processing cost: 0.18 … 0.27 €/Wp
(excluding feedstock: wafers)
© centrotherm photovoltaics AG
2010 Texas Renewables, San Antonio Nov 7-10
Materials
3%
Labor cost
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Module Manufacturing
Silicon
Solar
Cell
Ingot/ Wafer


Module
Typical module design today:
- 60 cells per module, 220 Wp
- glass / backsheet laminate
- framed
Key processes:
- stringing, tabbing, interconnection
- lamination
Other
Courtesy of Reis Robotics
Electricity
Key driver of processing cost: Materials!
 Glass 1.6 m2/module
 EVA
3.2 m2/module
 Backsheet 1.6 m2/module
 Frame 5.2 m/module
 Junction box 1 pcs/module
Processing cost: 0.30 … 0.40 €/Wp
(excluding feedstock: solar cells)
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2010 Texas Renewables, San Antonio Nov 7-10
Depreciation
Labor cost
0% 8%
1%
2%
Materials
89%
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Single Factories versus Integrated Factory
Single
factories
Polysilicon plant
Ingoting & Wafering
Ingoting
Integrated
factory
Solar cell line
Module line +
Administration
Wafering
Solar cell line
Module line
MG Silicon Plant
Solar academy
Power plant
Polysilicon plant
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Administration
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From Ton‘s of Silicon to MW‘s of Modules: 2010
Silicon
Ingot/ Wafer
single
factories
2010
-0.5%
2700 t
Module
Solar Cell
105 Mio
Wafer
-0.5%
387 MW
Cells
379 MW
Modules
fully
integrated
factory 2010
2700 t
© centrotherm photovoltaics AG
107 Mio
Wafer
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403 MW
Cells
395 MW
Modules
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From Ton‘s of Silicon to MW‘s of Modules: 2013
Fully
integrated
factory 2013
2700 t
124 Mio
Wafer
Wafer thickness 170µm
45.8 wafer/kg Poly
498 MW
Cells
Efficiency 17.6%
Yield (cell fab): 96.5%
Transport losses 0%
488 MW
Modules
Embedding loss 2.5%
Yield (module fab): 98%
Transport losses 0%
Silicon utilization 5.5 g/Wp
© centrotherm photovoltaics AG
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Outline
 Introduction Centrotherm
 Market
 Value Chain Poly Silicon Route
 PV Panel Production
© centrotherm photovoltaics AG
2010 Texas Renewables, San Antonio Nov 7-10
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Crystalline Solar Module
Module structure:
 >90% of c-Si based modules consist of this structure; typical values and data in ()
Aluminum frame (h = 45 mm)
Tempered cover glass (3,2 ~ 4 mm)
Encapsulation foil 1 (e.g. EVA, 500 µm)
Stringed solar cells (60 – 72 pcs.; ≤ 180 µm)
Encapsulation foil 2 (e.g. EVA, 500 µm)
Back sheet (electrical insulation
and humidity sealing; 350 µm)
Junction box
© centrotherm photovoltaics AG
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Crystalline Solar Module
Competitive Module Power with Selective Emitter Cells
Multi
Mono
and
Basis: 60 cells per module, module area:
Cell efficiency
Encapsulation Loss*
Encapsulated cell efficiency
Module power**
Area utilization
Module efficiency
Multi
FlexLine
FlexLine+
16,2%
16,8%
3,0%
3,5%
15,7%
16,2%
229 W
236 W
88,9%
88,9%
14,0%
14,4%
1,64 m²
Mono
FlexLine
FlexLine+
17,4%
18,2%
5,0%
5,5%
16,5%
17,2%
237 W
247 W
87,4%
87,4%
14,5%
15,0%
* Assumption, depends on various factors, e.g. ribbons, nitride, glass, EVA
** Module power was calculated
Cell efficiency represent the guaranteed values in centrotherm turnkey lines.
Module power represents target value for power guarantee in turnkey integrated factories
© centrotherm photovoltaics AG
2010 Texas Renewables, San Antonio Nov 7-10
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Fab Planning: Standard Turnkey Module Line
Sorting and packaging of the modules
Glass washing,
labelling and 1st
EVA - foil
Repairing places
for strings and
matrices
2nd EVA – foil,
Back sheet –foil
Edge trimming
Taping
and
Soaping
Junction
Box
Setting
~ 14 m
Foil cutting, EVA
Stringer
and Lay - Up
(Hot Spot Framing Flipping
measuring)
and visual
optional
inspection
Interconnection
Flashing and
classification
Laminator
3 steps, 1 stage
~ 90 m
Floorspace required: ~1260 sqm. = 14,000 sq.ft.
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Module Line Design
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Module Line Design
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Module Line Design
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String Matrix Lay-up
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Interconnect of Strings
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Automated Framing
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Fab Planning
Solar Module Factory - Layout
Module Tester
Back end
Laminator
Interconnection
2nd foil setting
Stringer
Layup Station
1st foil setting
Glass washing
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15 MW Module Line
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100 MW Module Line
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Turnkey Package includes
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Consulting for Building requirements
Facilities (requirements)
Production tools
Production support tools
Solar module design and technology
Manufacturing technology
Process / production control
Documentation, staff training and support
Module Certification (IEC 61215 (c-Si), IEC 61730 (safety), UL 1703)
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Cost of Manufacturing PV Panels
Production Cost Contributions
75%
Key Figures 60 MW Module Line Project
- Total Capex ~$10m (bldg, facil., eqpmnt)
- Output 31 modules per hour, each ~227 Watt
- Processing cost ~0.4 $/Wp
- 24/7 operation, 360 days
- 70 operators, total 85 employees
1.4%
0.4%
3.2%
Depreciation Equipment
Depreciation Facility &
Building
Labor
21%
Materials and running cost
Feedstock
Processing Cost Contributions
6% 2%
Depreciation Equipment
12%
Competitiveness
-Cost advantage in Asia is small
-Running operation effectively and long-term
realization of economy-of scale is key
-Production near markets is beneficial
-Meaningful part of market in US will fall
under „Buy American Provision“
-Local brands have been able to
secure price premium (e.g., SolarWorld)
© centrotherm photovoltaics AG
Depreciation Facility &
Building
Labor
Materials and running
cost
80%
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Conclusion
 Markets & demand are strong and growing
 Robust technology: C-Si produces reliable, low-risk and
bankable product (look at $/kWh – not $/Wp!!)
 Turnkey solutions for production lines available
 Solid business plan executable
 Make – not Buy!
© centrotherm photovoltaics AG
2010 Texas Renewables, San Antonio Nov 7-10
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Thank you for your attention!
centrotherm photovoltaics USA Inc
Silicon & Wafer
Silicon
& Wafer
Solar cell & Module
Solar cell & Module
Thin film module
Thin film module
Semiconductor
Semiconductor
1395 South Marietta Pkwy
Bldg. 200, Suite 208
Marietta, GA 30067, USA
Phone +1 678-996 3900
USA@centrotherm.de
www.centrotherm.de