Hybrid-Electric Bus Fuel Consumption Modeling: Model Development and Comparison to Conventional Buses Jinghui Wang, Graduate Research Assistant Charles E. Via, Jr. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Center for Sustainable Mobility at the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute 3500 Transportation Research Plaza, Blacksburg, VA 24061 Email: jwang@vtti.vt.edu Hesham A. Rakha (Corresponding author) Samuel Reynolds Pritchard Professor of Engineering at Virginia Tech Center for Sustainable Mobility at the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute 3500 Transportation Research Plaza, Blacksburg, VA 24061 Email: hrakha@vtti.vt.edu Phone: (540)-231-1505 Submitted for Presentation and Publication at the 95th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington D.C., January, 2016 Date of Re-submission: November 2015 4054 words + 6 figures + 2 tables = 6054 words equivalent November 8, 2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 ABSTRACT Electric hybridization technologies appear to be one of the most promising approaches to improve bus energy efficiency, however this improvement has not been systematically quantified. The accuracy of fuel consumption estimates is critical to precisely quantify the benefits of hybrid buses. Consequently, the objective of this study is to develop a hybrid-bus fuel consumption model based on the Virginia Tech Comprehensive Power-based Fuel Consumption Model (VT-CPFM) framework to enhance the accuracy of fuel estimates, and thereafter quantify the benefits associated with hybridization technologies relative to conventional diesel bus operations. The model estimates are demonstrated to be consistent with in-field measurements, and the optimum fuel economy cruise speed is demonstrated to be approximately 50 km/h. The results demonstrate that hybrid buses produce lower fuel consumption levels overall, while heavier buses and higher passenger loads may reduce the fuel saving benefits. The results also reveal that more fuel savings can be achieved for cruise and stop-and-go activity compared to idling behavior, and that stop-and-go operation generates the highest level of fuel efficiency benefits. The conclusions of this paper can support bus planning applications to achieve fleet fuel savings. Wang and Rakha 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 2 INTRODUCTION Transportation-related energy consumption accounts for 28% of the total U.S. energy use, accompanied by producing a share of 34.7% of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions, as reported by (1). Improving energy efficiency and reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions have attracted significant attention in the transportation sector. It is expected that GHG emissions be reduced from 2005 levels by over 30% by 2030 and by 80% by 2050 (2). Public transit outperforms private vehicles in reducing per capita fuel consumption and GHG emissions due to its higher ridership, and thus is considered as an effective countermeasure to mitigate fossil fuel consumption and climate change. Nonetheless, bus fuel consumption has been continually increasing from 827 million gallons/year to 2,059 million gallons/year between 1960 and 2012, which makes it critical to enhance bus fuel efficiency in reducing energy consumption and CO2 production. Electrical hybridization appears to be one of the most promising and cost-effective approaches to improve bus energy efficiency. Hybrid Electric Buses (HEBs) have two advantages over conventional diesel buses (CDBs) in saving fuel energy. First, the energy lost while braking could be partly recovered and stored in the form of electricity by the regenerative system embedded in HEBs; second, there are no mechanical links between the HEBs’ engines and their wheels, which makes the engine always operate in the most fuel efficient manner. Consequently, HEBs have the potential to minimize bus fuel consumption levels and CO2 emissions. The energy and environmental benefits of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have been the focus of many studies. For example, Reynolds et al. (3) compared hybrid light-duty vehicles (HLDVs) for sale in the United States to equivalent conventional vehicles using regression analysis and found that the average fuel consumption benefit was 2.7 (l/100 km); while they also indicated that heavier and more powerful hybrid vehicles might reduce such benefits. Fontaras et al.(4) tested two HLDVs (Honda Civic and Prius) using real world simulation cycles. The authors demonstrated that both vehicles produced improved energy efficiency and reduced CO2 emissions with a fuel saving of between 40% and 60%. They also indicated that ambient temperature was an important factor that affected the fuel savings of hybridization technologies, which was empirically verified by Zahabi et al.(5) who found that low ambient temperature was a detrimental factor in reducing fuel consumption levels and might cause a decrease of 20% in fuel efficiency in the winter relative to the summer. Ahn et al.(6) analyzed the impact of a regenerative braking system on the improvement of fuel efficiency, and demonstrated that HEVs were capable of improving the fuel economy by 20%-50% depending on the engine size. In addition to light duty vehicles (LDVs), attention has been devoted to heavy duty trucks (HDTs) as well. Lajunen (7) simulated conventional diesel powered and parallel hybrid heavy vehicle combinations in the Autonomie vehicle simulation software, and the results showed that fuel savings of up to 6% were achieved through hybridization. Specifically, the authors indicated that hybridization would achieve higher fuel efficiency in a hilly terrain. The simulation-based approach was also adopted by (8) to compare the fuel consumption and CO2 production between conventional- and hybrid-commercial vehicles. The results concluded that hybridization was an efficient technology reducing fuel consumption and CO2 emission levels by approximately 30% . Russell et al.(9) investigated the fuel performance of class eight heavy duty trucks and concluded that hybrid trucks achieved up to a 60% reduction in fuel consumption levels and up to 36% reduction in CO2 emissions. The aforementioned modeling and simulation efforts have explicitly addressed various degrees of benefit in terms of energy efficiency and emissions from LDVs and HDTs; however, only a few studies have provided any insights into public transit buses. Soylu (2) quantified the improve- Wang and Rakha 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 3 ment of bus energy efficiency derived from electricity hybridization using the cumulative energies (CEs) per kilometer of travel of buses (CEs consist of positive traction energy (PTE), negative traction energy (NTE), brake engine energy (BEE)). The results indicated that the CEs of hybrid buses were 12%(PTE), 8%(NTE), and 21% (BEE) lower than those of conventional buses, respectively. However, hybrid buses did not produce the expected fuel savings in (10)’s study. Consequently, the effectiveness of hybrid technology in reducing bus fuel consumption levels remains open to further investigation. The accuracy of bus fuel consumption estimates is of essence to precisely model differences in fuel consumption levels between conventional- and hybrid- buses. An efficient and accurate fuel consumption modeling approach is thus needed. Traditional bus fuel consumption modeling approaches are classified into two categories: physically based analytical models and empirically based models (11). The typical examples of physically based analytical models include the Comprehensive Modal Emission Model (CMEM) (12), EcoGest (13), and the Physical Emissions Rate Estimator (PERE) (14). The empirically based models are mainly exemplified by VT-Micro (15), the Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES) and VSP-based approaches. Apart from the VT-Micro model, all these models produce a bang-bang type of control system in which the partial derivative of fuel consumption with respect to vehicle power is not a function of the vehicle power. This results in a type of control in which the optimum fuel economy may be achieved at full throttle acceleration or full braking deceleration. In this case drivers have to either accelerate at full throttle or brake at full braking in order to minimize their fuel consumption levels, which appears to contradict empirical observations. The Virginia Tech Comprehensive Power-based Fuel Consumption Model (VT-CPFM) modeling approach, initially developed by (16) to estimate LDV fuel consumption levels, eliminates the bang bang control by introducing a quadratic term in the relationship between fuel consumption and vehicle power. This study extends the VT-CPFM to model hybrid bus fuel consumption levels in order to accurately capture the fuel efficiency of hybrid buses. Bus fuel consumption and efficiency depend on vehicle and engine attributes, passenger load, travel speed, road grade, stop-and-go activity, etc. (17). In Soylu’s study (2), the authors demonstrated that the route vertical profiles (road grade) and the frequency of stop-and-go operations had a dramatic impact on the braking and traction energies of HEBs and CDBs. Frey et al.(11) developed a vehicle specific power (VSP)-based approach to model conventional dieseland hydrogen-fueled bus fuel consumption levels, and strongly emphasized that passenger load significantly affected bus fuel consumption levels. Specifically, higher passenger loads resulted in higher fuel consumption levels for identical driving conditions; however, they did not consider hybrid-electricity buses. To the authors’ knowledge, the electricity hybridization benefit in bus fuel consumption has not been extensively studied. Consequently, the objective of this study is to extend the VT-CPFM framework to model hybrid bus fuel consumption levels in order to quantify the improvement in fuel efficiency associated with hybrid-electric technologies, and to identify the impacts of the associated influencing factors on the performance of the improvement, specifically focusing on the impacts of bus curb weight, passenger load and bus behavior (idling, cruising and stop-and-go events). 4 Wang and Rakha 0.01 0.009 Fuel Consumption Rate(l/s) 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0 −800 −600 −400 −200 0 Vehicle Power(kW) 200 400 600 FIGURE 1 Vehicle power vs. hybrid bus fuel consumption functional form 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 THE VT-CPFM FRAMEWORK The VT-CPFM framework models the fuel consumption as a second-order polynomial function of vehicle power. Although the model has been proven to be capable of accurately capturing LDV and CDB fuel consumption levels (18), it has not been extended to model HEBs. The data in FIGURE 1, gathered for an HEB under real-world driving conditions, indicate that the fuel functional form can approximately be characterized by a parabola for positive power conditions and remains nearly constant for negative conditions, which is similar to LDVs and CDBs. Consequently, the VTCPFM is applicable to modeling hybrid bus fuel consumption, whereas the accuracy of the model estimates remains to be studied in this paper. VT-CPFM model structure Rakha et al. (16) developed two VT-CPFM model formulations (VT-CPFM-1 and VT-CPFM-2), only the VT-CPFM-1 was applied in this study due to a lack of engine gear data that would be required to run the VT-CPFM-2 model. The framework of the VT-CPFM-1 is presented in Eq.(1): ( α0 + α1 P (t) + α2 P (t)2 , ∀P (t) ≥ 0 F CR(t) = α0 , ∀P (t) < 0 116 117 118 (1) where F CR(t) is the instantaneous fuel consumption rate [l/s]; α0 , α1 and α2 are the vehiclespecific model coefficients that remain to be calibrated. P (t) is the vehicle power (kW), which is computed as (19): P (t) = R(t) + (1 + λ + 0.0025ξv(t)2 )ma(t) v(t) 3600η (2) 5 Wang and Rakha 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 where R(t) is the vehicle resistance force [N]; λ is the mass factor accounting for rotational masses, a value of 0.1 is used for heavy duty vehicles (HDVs) (20); ξ is assumed to be zero due to the lack of gear data; m is the total mass of the bus [kg] (including bus curb weight and passenger load); a(t) is the instantaneous acceleration [m/s2 ] and v(t) is the vehicle speed in the units of km/h; η is the driveline efficiency. R(t) is the sum of the aerodynamic, rolling and grade resistance forces as expressed by Eq.(3) (21), where ρa is the air density at sea level at a temperature of 15 ◦ C (59 ◦ F) (equal to 1.2256 kg/m3 ), CD is the drag coefficient (unitless), the correction factor for altitude (unitless) is calculated by 1 − 0.085H (H is in km), Af is the frontal area of buses (m2 ), Cr , c1 and c2 are the rolling resistance parameters (unitless), G(t) is the instantaneous road grade which is determined by elevation profiles. R(t) = 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 Cr ρa CD Ch Af v(t)2 + 9.8066m (c1 v(t) + c2 ) + 9.8066mG(t) 25.92 1000 Model Calibration Discussion According to Rakha et al. (16), the model can be calibrated using publicly available data (e.g. fuel economy for standard drive cycles, engine displacement, drag coefficient), which enables the calibration work to be cost-effective and time-efficient. For LDVs, the vehicle-specific coefficients α0 , α1 , and α2 can be estimated using Eq.(4)-(6), where Pf mp is the idling fuel mean pressure (400,000 Pa); d is the engine displacement (liters); HE is the fuel lower heating value (43,000,000 J/kg for gasoline fuel, not available for the buses in this paper); N is the number of engine cylinders; ωidle is the engine idling speed (rpm); Fcity and Fhwy (liters) are the fuel consumed for the EPA city 2 2 are the sums of the power and power squared , Phwy , Phwy and highway drive cycles; Pcity , Pcity over the EPA city- and highway- cycle respectively; Tcity and Thwy are the duration of EPA city and highway drive cycles (s); F Ecity and F Ehwy are the fuel economy estimates for the EPA city and highway cycles (km/l). The use of ε term ensures that the fuel consumption is not affine to vehicle power. For LDVs, the value of ε is 1E − 06 (16), whereas for hybrid buses the value remains to be determined. α0 = Pf mp ωidle d 22164(HE)N (4) P α2 = 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 P city city ) − (Tcity − Thwy Phwy )α0 (Fcity − Fhwy Phwy P city 2 2 Pcity − Phwy Phwy (5) 2 Fhwy − Thwy α0 − Phwy α2 (6) Phwy However, hybrid buses do not report the fuel economy for standard drive cycles (e.g. the EPA highway and city drive cycles), which implies that Fcity and Fhwy are not available. This lack of fuel economy data for buses makes results in the need to gather real-world data for calibration purposes. The calibration effort was performed using the General Linear Regression (GLR) analysis since the fuel consumption functional form is not affine as illustrated in FIGURE 1. Although the publicly available data were not been used in this paper, the introduction of Eqs.(4)-(6) gives some insights into calibrating the hybrid bus fuel consumption model if/once bus fuel economy data are reported in the future. α1 = 143 (3) Wang and Rakha 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 DATA PREPARATION AND MODEL TESTING Data Collection and Preparation The field data were collected by test driving the buses around the town of Blacksburg, VA. The test was conducted on two road sections: US 460 business (highway with a speed limit of 65 mi/h (104 km/h) and local streets with a speed limit ranging between 25 mi/h and 45 mi/h (40-72 km/h) in order to cover a wide range of real-world driving conditions. A total of 8 hybrid buses were tested under similar ambient temperature conditions to minimize the impact of other external factors on the data. A HEM data logger was used for data acquisition due to its portability and the capability of collecting data autonomously without any maintenance. The data were saved on a micro SD card and uploaded to a server via WiFi. Up to 46 parameters were collected, six of which were extracted for the proposed study, namely: time stamp, vehicle speed, fuel consumption rate, latitude, longitude, and altitude. The data were recorded at a frequency of 2 Hz or 5 Hz. In order to generate second-by-second data, the original data were combined by averaging the values of the data points within each individual second. The null data, which had a value of "0" for longitude/latitude/altitude, were removed. For each bus, the cleaned data were separated into three sub-datasets: 50% of the data points were set for calibration purposes, 25% of which used for validation purposes; and for the remaining 25%, the data collected on a specific route were extracted and set aside to compare the fuel consumption levels between HEBs and CDBs. TABLE 1 gives a generalization of the model input parameters along with their sources. Some parameters, such as the rolling resistance coefficients and driveline efficiency were obtained from the literature; while some of the parameters are computed using the field data. The total mass (m) is the sum of the bus curb weight and passenger load which is computed as the dot product of the ridership and the average weight of individual passengers. It should be noted that 179 lb (81.5 kg) was assumed to be the average passenger weight in this study. Road grade was computed using Eq. (7): Elv(t + ∆t) − Elv(t) G(t) = p (D(t + ∆t) − D(t))2 − (Elv(t + ∆t) − Elv(t))2 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 6 (7) with Elv(·) the elevation over the time span [t, t + ∆t] and D(·) the distance a bus travels in a single time step ∆t (1s in this case). Given that the measured elevation data were not accurate, high accuracy Lidar data were used to compute the grades by superimposing the location data on a Geographic Information System (GIS) database. Model Calibration A total of eight HEBs were tested and classified into two bus series (601X series and 602X series) based on the bus-specific properties, including: model year, manufacturer, size, engine model, horsepower and curb weight. The buses within the same series have identical vehicle properties. The buses of the 602X series are much heavier, with a curb weight of 20,845 kg (45,860 lb) and a larger bus capacity (107 passengers) compared to the 601X series which has a curb weight of 14,154 kg (31,140 lb) and a capacity of 80 passengers. As demonstrated in (18), the model calibrated for an entire bus series can accurately capture the fuel consumption behavior of each individual bus within that series. Consequently, as part of this effort the VT-CPFM model was calibrated for each entire bus series instead of individual buses. 7 Wang and Rakha Parameter TABLE 1 Parameters required for model calibration Value Source Drag coefficient (CD ) Altitude correction factor (Ch ) Bus frontal area (Af ) Vehicle speed (v) Mass (m) Rolling coefficient (Cr ) c1 c2 Road grade (G) Acceleration (a) Driveline efficiency (η) Bus Series No. 601X series 602X series 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 0.8 / 6.824 m2 / / 1.25 0.0328 4.575 / / 0.95 (21) Computed from field data Computed from bus dimensions Measured in field Bus weighed (21) (21) (21) Computed from field data Computed from field data (21) TABLE 2 The calibrated model coefficients α0 α1 1.493e-03 1.321e-03 3.829e-05 6.651e-05 α2 -1.284e-08 -3.821e-08 TABLE 2 summarizes the calibration results by providing the values of the parameter sets. Interestingly, the second-order coefficients (α2 ) are negative, which suggests that the bus fuel consumption functional form is concave. This is similar to CDBs but unlike LDVs whose functional is convex. Furthermore, the magnitude of the α2 parameter is greater than 1E − 08, implying that a minimum value of 1E − 08 may ensure that the hybrid bus optimum fuel economy cruise speed is in a typical range which is to be determined in section 4.3.2. Consequently, the value of ε term for HEBs is equal to 1E − 08 which is identical to CDBs but different from LDVs (1E − 06). Model Validation The models were tested at the instantaneous fuel consumption level and the optimum cruise speed level, as described in this section. Instantaneous Fuel Consumption Rates The fuel consumption estimates were compared to the measurements at an instantaneous level in order to quantify the goodness of the model fit. FIGURE 2 demonstrates that the model estimates are generally consistent with the field measurements. Even when the models overestimate or underestimate the field measurements, in general the predicted fuel consumption rates follow the peaks and valleys of the measured data. Statistically, the coefficient of determination (R2 ) is 0.61 for the 601X series and 0.70 for the 602X series, demonstrating the power of VT-CPFM to can explain a substantial portion of the variability in hybrid bus fuel consumption data. Optimum Cruise Speed The relationship between the fuel consumption rate per unit distance and the cruising speed is bowl shaped, as illustrated in FIGURE 3. The optimum fuel economy cruise speed is the cruise 8 Wang and Rakha −3 7 601X Series x 10 Measurements Estimated Fuel Consumption Rate(l/s) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 200 400 600 800 Time(s) 1000 1200 1400 1600 (a) 601X Series 602X Series 0.012 Measurements Estimated Fuel Consumption Rate(l/s) 0.01 0.008 0.006 0.004 0.002 0 0 200 400 600 800 Time(s) 1000 1200 1400 (b) 602X Series FIGURE 2 Estimates vs. measurements at the fuel consumption level 1600 9 Wang and Rakha 6 601X Series 602X Series Fuel Consumption(l/km) 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 20 40 60 Cruise Speed(km/h) 80 100 FIGURE 3 Fuel consumption per unit distance vs. cruise speed 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 speed for which the fuel consumption rate is minimum. The study demonstrated that the hybrid bus distance-based fuel consumption bowl shaped curve is very similar to that of regular buses (18), producing the minimum fuel consumption level at a speed of 50 km/h (601X series) and 49 km/h (602X series), respectively. In addition, the 602X series generates higher fuel consumption levels than the 601X series. This is attributed to the fact that the 602X series buses have a higher bus curb weight. HYBRID ELECTRIC AND CONVENTIONAL BUS COMPARISON To quantify the potential fuel efficiency benefits of hybrid technology, the fuel consumption levels were estimated for both HEBs and CDBs using the calibrated VT-CPFM models. It should be noted that the CDB fuel consumption models were calibrated in an earlier study (18). In order to eliminate differences in vehicle trajectory and topographical conditions, the same vehicle trajectories were applied to both models. A pairwise comparison was conducted between the 19XX series (conventional diesel) and 601X series (hybrid), and 632X series (conventional diesel) and 602X series (hybrid). Since the buses within each pair of series have an identical capacity and bus curb weight, the only confounding factor is the propulsion technology. As illustrated in FIGURE 4, the 601X series / 602X series always produce lower fuel consumption levels compared to the 19XX series / 632X series, demonstrating that the fuel efficiency could be improved through the use of hybrid technologies. Furthermore, the fuel consumption levels for the 632X- and 602X- series are higher than those of the 19XX- and 601X- series. This finding empirically demonstrates that the heavier buses may produce higher fuel consumption levels. FIGURE 4 also indicates that the fuel consumption levels increase monotonically with the 10 Wang and Rakha −3 5 The Impact of Passenger Load on Fuel Consumption x 10 19XX Series 601X Series 632X Series 602X Series Average Fuel Consumption(l) 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Passenger Load Percentage (%) 80 90 100 FIGURE 4 The impact of passenger load on fuel consumption levels 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 passenger load for each bus series, and the differences in the fuel consumption levels between hybrid- and conventional- bus series diminish with the passenger load increases. This implies that higher passenger loads may reduce the hybrid-induced fuel benefits. To quantify the fuel benefits, the relative differences in fuel consumption rates were computed, as illustrated in FIGURE 5. The positive differences reflect lower fuel consumption levels for hybrid buses and thus achieve fuel savings. In summary, the savings range between 17% and 26% for the lower curb weight buses (601X Series vs. 19XX Series shown in FIGURE 5a), and between 10% and 13% for the heavier pair (602X Series vs. 632X Series shown in FIGURE 5b). This quantitatively demonstrates that higher bus curb weight significantly reduces the hybrid-induced fuel efficiency benefits. Furthermore, a decrease in fuel savings is observed with an increase in the number of passengers. This indicates that passenger load is also a major trigger that impacts hybrid-induced fuel savings, which empirically verifies the conclusion obtained in FIGURE 4. In order to identify the optimum events to achieve fuel savings, the dataset was partitioned into three portions: the first sub-dataset included only idling data; the second one included cruising data; and the third captured stop-and-go behavior. The relative differences in fuel consumption levels were compared between the HEBs and CDBs for each of the three datasets, respectively in order to identify which type of bus behavior resulted in more fuel savings. As illustrated in FIGURE 6, the positive differences reflect lower hybrid bus fuel consumption levels. In general, the lower curb weight HEB achieves a fuel saving of 7% in idling events, 15%-28% in cruising events and 21%-28% in stop-and-go events, respectively; and the heavier HEB realizes a savings of 4% in idling, 7%-14% in cruising and 10%-14% for stop-and-go events, respectively. The results reveal that the hybrid-induced fuel savings achieved in cruise and stop-and-go events are 11 Wang and Rakha Bus 601X vs. 19XX Series Bus 602X vs. 632X Series 35 20 18 Differences in Fuel Consumption (%) Differences in Fuel Consumption (%) 30 25 20 15 10 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 5 2 0 −0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Percentage of Passenger Load (a) 601X Series vs. 19XX Series 1 1.2 0 −0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Percentage of Passenger Load 1 1.2 (b) 602X Series vs. 632X Series FIGURE 5 Improvement in fuel consumption for HEBs 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 significantly higher than those while idling; and that heavier HEBs achieve lower fuel savings compared to the lighter HEBs. Consequently, the bus curb weight is a key factor in affecting the fuel efficiency benefits of HEBs. It should be noted that the idling fuel savings are impacted less by the increase in the bus curb weight and passenger load demonstrating that the idling fuel rate is not significantly affected by the vehicle mass (22). However, the fuel savings achieved in cruise and stop-and-go operations have a downtrend when the passenger load increases. Consequently, high passenger loads reduce the hybrid-induced fuel benefits achieved in cruise and stop-and-go events. Furthermore, the stop-and-go operation produces the highest level of fuel savings compared to the other two activities, especially for high passenger loads. This may be attributed to the frequent stop-and-go behavior, which allows the regenerative system to recover more energy lost while braking operation and stores energy in the form of electricity for standby applications. CONCLUSIONS Traditional HEB fuel consumption models produce a bang-bang type of control system. To overcome this shortcoming, the VT-CPFM framework, which models the fuel consumption as a secondorder polynomial function of vehicle power, is used to develop an HEB fuel consumption model. The model is calibrated for two bus series, and the model estimates are validated by comparing to empirical data. The validation effort demonstrates that the model estimates are consistent with in-field measurements. The optimum fuel economy cruise speed is found to be in the range of 50 km/h which is lower than LDV optimum cruise speeds (60-80 km/h). The calibrated models are used to compare the fuel estimates of HEBs with those of CDBs and quantify the hybrid-induced fuel benefits. The results reveal that the hybrid buses produce lower fuel consumption levels overall. Heavier buses may result in less fuel benefits, demonstrating that the bus curb weight significantly affects the fuel economy benefits resulting from hybridization technologies. Furthermore, the passenger load is also demonstrated to be a trigger that affects the hybrid-induced fuel efficiency benefit. The fuel savings achieved by cruise and stop-and-go operations are significantly higher compared to idling activity, and this fuel benefit will be eroded with the increase of passenger load. The stop-and-go behavior produces the highest level of fuel 12 Wang and Rakha (a) 601X Series vs. 19XX Series (b) 602X Series vs. 632X Series FIGURE 6 Fuel savings triggered by idling, cruise and stop-and-go behavior 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 savings since more energy could be recovered by the regenerative system embedded in HEBs during bus braking operation. This study provides a simple, accurate and efficient model to predict hybrid bus fuel consumption levels. The results of the pairwise comparison may support bus planning efforts in developing fuel-efficient strategies. 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