Conference Proceedings
Conference Programme
3
Conference Venue Directions & Maps
4
Biographies
Keynote Speaker
5
Panel Speakers
5-6
Careers Panel Speakers
6-7
Conference Abstracts By Session
Energy & Emissions
8-11
Cities & Coasts
12-14
Governance & Behaviour
15-20
Water & Land
21-24
Poster Session Abstracts
25-39
Delegate Email List
40-42
2 3 Wednesday
11th April
Day
Time
2.30-3.30pm
Session
Registration
3.30-5.00pm
Opening Keynote
5.00-7.00pm
Poster Session
Location
Thomas Paine Foyer
Thomas Paine
Lecture Theatre
Thomas Paine Foyer
7.30-9.00pm
Dinner
Vista
Speakers
Prof. Mike Hulme
Scott Kelly
Pablo Salas
9.0010.30am
Energy and
Emissions
Michael Traut
Elizabeth Fry 01.08
Beatrice Cointe
Lucy Baker
Maria Sharmina
Gareth Thomas
10.3011.00am
Coffee break
Thomas Paine Foyer
Dr. Rebecca Wyand
11.0012.30pm
Beyond the PhD
Elizabeth Fry 01.08
Dr. Heike Schroeder
Dr. Neil Jennings
Thursday 12th April
Dr. Jolene Cook
12.301.30pm
Lunch
Thomas Paine Foyer
Natalie Foster
1.30-2.30pm
Cities and Coasts
Elizabeth Fry 01.08
Merryn Thomas
Blanca Rosa Garcia
Navarrete
Till Sterzel
Marta Olazabal
2.30-3.00pm
Coffee break
Thomas Paine Foyer
Raquel Nunes
Rachel Macrorie
Kim Coetzee
3.00-5.00pm
Governance and
Behaviour
Daniel Wheelock
Elizabeth Fry 01.08
Marisa Carmago
Julio Postigo
Karen Anderton
Rob Bellamy
Sandra Boegelein
7.0010.00pm
Evening Meal
Mackintosh's
Canteen
Stella Nordhagen
Friday 13th April
Delphine Deryng
9.0010.30am
Mike Simpson
Water and Land
Elizabeth Fry 01.08
Rachel James
Nicola Favretto
Kate Walker
Rebecca Darbyshire
10.30-11.00
Coffee break
Thomas Paine Foyer
11.0012.30pm
The Future of
Climate Change
Research
Elizabeth Fry 01.08
12.30-
Concluding Remarks
Elizabeth Fry 01.08
Prof. Bob Watson
Tony Juniper
Dr. Natasha Grist
Richard
Dr. Xianfu
Gledhill
Lu
Asher Minns
1.00pm
Prizegiving
Elizabeth Fry 01.08
5 Chris Foulds
Conference Venue
Thomas Paine:
Keynote Address &
Poster Session
Elizabeth Fry 01.08:
Main Conference
Venue & Registration
Vista: Wednesday
Evening Meal
Venue
Broadview
Lodge:
Accommodation
Interactive map available @ http://www.uea.ac.uk/about/gettinghere/campusmap Restaurant Venue Thursday: Mackintosh’s Canteen: 7.00pm
Dinner is provided but due to our limited budget drinks are your own responsibility! Catch the 25/35 bus to St Stephens St from UEA. KEYNOTE AND PANEL SPEAKER BIOGRAPHIES KEYNOTE ADDRESS: Climate Change: What Sort Of Knowledge For What Sort
Of Politics?
Professor of Climate Change, Science, Society and
Professor Mike Hulme Sustainability (3S) Group, UEA
Mike Hulme is professor of climate change in the Science, Society and Sustainability (3S) Group in the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia (UEA). His work explores the idea of climate change using historical, cultural and scientific analyses, seeking to illuminate the numerous ways in which climate change is deployed in public, political and scholarly discourse. From 2000 to 2007 he was the Founding Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and from 2007 is the founding editor-­‐in-­‐chief of the review journal Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews (WIREs) Climate Change. His two most recent books are Why We Disagree About Climate Change (2009) – chosen by The Economist magazine in 2009 as one of its science and technology books of the year -­‐ and, with Henry Neufeldt, the edited volume Making Climate Change Work For Us (2010). He has previously served on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, on numerous advisory and editorial boards and led teams conducting research for the UK Government, the EU Commission and the United Nations.
PANEL DEBATE: The Future of Climate Change Research
Four panellists from across the climate change arena will address ‘The Future of Climate Change Research’ with a twist. Panellists will present a research gap proposal and make a bid for a fictional £3 million grant. The panellists will be open to questions from the floor promoting an animated debate on the future of climate change research and scales of action. The delegates will decide which bid is most compelling.
DEFRA Chief Scientific Advisor; Professor of Environmental
Professor Bob Watson
Sciences, University of East Anglia; Director of Strategic
FRS
Development, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Bob Watson's early research was as a physical chemist, in particular in studies of gas phase chemical kinetics relevant to atmospheric processes involving reactive halogen species and hydroxyl free radicals. These studies provided a significant amount of the chemical kinetic information required for modelling the human influence of chlorofluorocarbons and brominated halocarbon emissions on stratospheric ozone depeletion. He went on to be a leading player in many international environmental assessments, including the Convention on Biological Diversity, the International Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. After a period as Chief Scientist and Senior Advisor for Sustainable Development at the World Bank, he returned to the UK as Chief Scientist at Defra. He has been awarded many international prizes and honours, most recently the Blue Planet Prize (2010). www.royalsociety.org PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
Richard Gledhill
Richard Gledhill leads PwC's global climate change network. He specialises in climate policy, carbon markets and climate finance. Richard advised on some of the earliest, large transactions in the CDM and has remained active in the carbon markets, advising developers, governments, funds and investors. He has also advised a number of donor governments and multilateral agencies on climate finance, in particular on REDD+ and green growth. He is a member of the Network Council of the Climate & Development Knowledge Network. Richard was a senior adviser to the World Economic Forum on climate policy and finance from 2008 -­‐2011. He was a member of the cabinet of the G20 Taskforce on Low Carbon Prosperity and is an adviser to the Carbon Disclosure Project. He is responsible for the annual survey of carbon market sentiment conducted by PwC on behalf of IETA. 7 Tony Juniper
Environmentalist
Tony Juniper is a campaigner, writer, sustainability adviser and a well-­‐known British environmentalist. For more than 25 years he has worked for change toward a more sustainable society at local, national and international levels. From providing ecology and conservation experiences for primary school children, to making the case for new recycling laws, to orchestrating international campaigns for action on rainforests and climate change, his work has sought change at many levels. Juniper presently works as a Special Adviser to the Prince of Wales Charities’ International Sustainability Unit, having previously worked (2008-­‐2010) as a Special Advisor with the Prince’s Rainforests Project. He is a Senior Associate with the Cambridge University Programme for Sustainability Leadership (CPSL), working as a member of the teaching faculty and in the development of the organisation’s new Natural Capital programme. From 2003 to 2008 he was the director of Friends of the Earth in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. From 2001 to 2008 he was also elected Vice Chair of the 70-­‐strong network of national organizations that comprise Friends of the Earth International. Friends of the Earth's greatest achievement during Juniper's time as director was the success of the Big Ask campaign, which set out to gain legal controls on carbon dioxide emissions. www.tonyjuniper.com Dr. Xianfu Lu
Asian Development Bank, UNFCCC
Dr Xianfu Lu is an adaptation specialist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB) (on special leave from the UNFCCC secretariat). Over the past 15 years, Ms. Lu has worked on the scientific and policy aspects of climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, and at the science-­‐policy interface. She is currently supporting ADB's efforts in integrating climate change adaptation into its operations, through the provision of technical guidance and resources. While with the UNFCCC secretariat, Dr Lu co-­‐ordinated the implementation of the Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change from the UNFCCC Secretariat. Prior to this role, she worked as a Technical Specialist at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Headquarters in New York, providing technical support to scientists and governmental technical teams in Africa, Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and countries with economies in transition in assessing climate impacts and planning for adaptation. Dr Lu started off her international career as a climate change and adaptation specialist at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia where she was a Senior Research Associate when the Centre was founded in 2000. She was a Co-­‐ordinating Lead Author for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and is an ex officio member of the IPCC’s Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impacts and Climate Analysis for the Fifth Assessment Report. Overseas Development Institute
Dr. Natasha Grist
Natasha Grist specialises in climate change, adaptation and international development, with a background in social and environmental science. Natasha is Head of Research for the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (2010-­‐2014), of which ODI is a core partner. This research is designed to be applied and demand-­‐led, to meet needs of developing country governments. Prior to joining ODI, she was a post-­‐doctoral researcher at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change. She focussed on links between climate change and sustainable development and the challenges to current models of development posed by climate change. She undertook applied research with development policy makers in the UK and West Africa creating scenarios for development futures and examining how to incorporating climate change into development planning and practice. Her PhD and MSc research was based in Brazilian Amazonia, focussing on links between livelihoods, urbanisation and natural resource management. 8 CAREERS SESSION: Where do we go from here? Beyond the PhD.
An opportunity to quiz early career professionals from different areas after completing their own PhDs. Student Switch Off
Dr Neil Jennings
Neil Jennings completed a PhD at the Tyndall Centre in 2008. While studying for his PhD he set up an energy-­‐saving campaign at UEA called the Student Switch Off. After completing his PhD Neil set up his own not-­‐for-­‐profit business and has since expanded the Student Switch Off to 43 Universities across the UK. Halls of residence within each University compete against each other to save energy with the best hall be rewarded with a celebratory party. Last academic year the campaign reached 90,000 students, helped to reduce electricity consumption by an average of 7% and kept over 1,500 tonnes of CO2 out of the atmosphere. Dr Heike Schroeder
Change (IHDP). Senior Lecturer In Climate Change And International
Development Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of
East Anglia
Heike Schroeder is a senior lecturer in climate change and international development at the School of International Development, University of East Anglia, where she is analyzing global environmental politics and forest governance, in particular the role of non-­‐nation state actors in the current post-­‐2012 negotiating process on avoiding deforestation (REDD). She is also a coordinator of the governance theme in the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and a member of the Scientific Steering Committee of the long-­‐term international research project on Earth System Governance under the auspices of the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Dr Jolene Cook
Climate and Energy: Science and Analysis (CESA),
Department of Energy and Climate Change
Jolene has been working as a climate scientist for over ten years within both research and policy, and currently works as a climate science adviser in the Department of Energy and Climate Change. Before and after her PhD, Jolene was an academic researcher in the University of Reading’s Department of Meteorology, investigating some of those issues which are particularly relevant to climate change policy today, including the impact of aerosols and aviation on the climate and metrics for comparing the effects of greenhouse gases. Her current role in Government provides a link between research and policy, and helps to develop scientific evidence to inform national and international strategies to avoid dangerous climate change. 9 Energy & Emissions
Energy underpins our lives and economic development. Fossil fuel combustion is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions and so energy production and use is integral to climate change mitigation. Energy is increasingly central to climate change adaptation challenges associated with water services, agriculture, land use and infrastructure. The challenges of developing and maintaining low carbon, resilient energy systems will become more acute as changes in climate combine with existing trends in population and consumption. Paper Session Speakers
Lucy Baker
University Of East Anglia
From Coal Crunch To Wind Rush? Governing
Power In South Africa
South Africa, Political Economy, Wind, Coal, Electricity
South Africa is historically dependent on cheap coal for approximately 90 per cent of its electricity generation and 50 per cent of its carbon emissions. The country’s ‘minerals-­‐energy complex’ (Fine and Rustomjee 1996) founded on cheap coal-­‐fired electricity and cheap labour for export-­‐oriented industry is now under threat from rising coal costs, national electricity supply shortages and climate change mitigation requirements. In the wake of Durban’s COP 17 the country is taking steps to introduce renewables into its electricity mix whilst expanding its conventional coal-­‐fired generation. By examining the emergent though as yet non-­‐existent wind energy industry being developed largely by independent power producers backed by private finance and the Medupi coal-­‐fired power plant being developed by state utility Eskom, this research illuminates key dynamics and tensions between economic, political, industrial, environmental and social priorities in South Africa’s energy policy. The research fuses a critical political economy approach, central for the analysis of power relations, structural change and the underlying interests of dominant actors (Söderbaum 2003, Büscher 2009) but which to date has provided limited focus on renewable energy, with perspectives from socio-­‐technical transitions (Kemp et al 2007, Kern and Smith 2008, and Smith et al 2005). In doing this it addresses a gap that the transitions literature has identified from within its own ranks of a limited analysis of power and agency and the political dimension of systems change (Meadowcroft 2011). Maria
Sharmina
University Of Manchester
Russia’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions And
Cumulative Emissions Budgets
Emission Scenarios, Energy Policy, Backcasting, Energy System, Russia.
1
Given diminishing global cumulative emission budgets , immediate and large-­‐scale emission reductions are necessary if the Copenhagen Accord commitments are to be met. Against this backdrop, Russia is an important geopolitical player in climate-­‐related negotiations. Being a major fossil fuel energy supplier and consumer and with more than 60% of its vast area located in the permafrost region, climate change on Russia’s territory is likely to have profound impacts on the rest of the planet. This study aims to produce medium-­‐term emission scenarios and pathways for Russia’s energy system, in order to envision and inform step-­‐change in the country’s energy and climate policy. 10 The study delivers three broad outputs. The first and most immediate research output includes scenarios comprised of qualitative storylines and quantitative descriptions of Russia’s energy system that serve as a basis for policy recommendations. The second key output is an augmented scenario tool accounting for climate change impacts and explicitly introducing stakeholder expertise. Finally, the third output is a novel theoretical and methodological agenda asserting that: a) backcasting is a teleological planning approach that rejects reductionism in futures studies; b) as a planning tool, backcasting emphasises interim targets and pathways towards the ‘strategic objective’; and c) interim targets and pathways are essential due to unique cumulative 2
aspects of the climate change issue . In summary, the study develops and tests a generalisable scenario tool integrating mitigation, impact and adaptation aspects, which, combined with cumulative budget-­‐based backcasting, is an important step towards science-­‐informed and meaningful policy. 1
Compatible with a reasonable chance of not exceeding the 2C mean surface temperature increase over
pre-industrial.
Gareth
Thomas
University Of Birmingham
The Political Economy Of Hydrogen Energy
Interdisciplinarity; Research In Context; Socio-Technical Transitions; Technology Coalitions;
Hydrogen Fuel Cells
An artificial distinction has emerged in the field of climate research, dividing research between ‘energy and emissions’ on the one hand, and ‘behaviour and governance’ on the other. This divide signposts both a differentiation of topical focus but also a disciplinary distinction between the traditional physical and economic sciences and newer social sciences of psychology and policy studies. This paper argues that as a result of this divide, significant knowledge gaps are emerging in the spaces where society, policy and industry intersect in the development of new energy technologies. Specifically there are significant gaps in our understanding of the ways in which individuals from such diverse backgrounds as academia, industry and policy making can coalesce around a new technology to promote research & development and push for policy support. Work in the field of sustainable transition studies has identified such factors as important, but has tended to examine transitions post hoc, potentially missing seemingly everyday practices and relationships. The PhD research outlined in the paper aims to address this shortfall through a case study of an ongoing attempt to promote a transition to hydrogen energy technologies by a loose coalition of researchers, private and public enterprises and policy actors. In examining an ongoing transition attempt, the research will examine how such a coalition of actors is formed, the types of relationship and narrative that hold it together and allow it to enrol new members, whilst identifying potential pitfalls and barriers to technological innovation along the way. Speed Presentation Speakers Scott Kelly
University Of Cambridge
Building Performance And Evaluation In The
Uk: A Critical Review
Building, Performance, Energy Ratings, Energy Performance Certificate, SAP, Models
Improving the efficiency and performance of the UK residential sector is now necessary for meeting future energy and climate change targets. Building Performance Evaluation and Certification (BPEC) tools are vital for estimating and recommending cost effective improvements to building energy efficiency and lowering overall emissions. In the UK, building performance is estimated using the Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) for new dwellings and Reduced SAP (RdSAP) for existing dwellings. Using a systems based approach we show there are many opportunities for improving the effectiveness of BPEC tools. In particular, if the building stock is going to meet future energy 11 and climate change targets, the systems and processes that drive building energy efficiency will need to change. Building performance standards across Europe are compared, highlighting the most effective strategies for improving building stock performance. It is shown that the large variance between estimated and actual energy performance from dwellings in the UK may be preventing the adoption of bottom-­‐up energy efficiency measures. We show that despite popular belief, SAP and RdSAP do not estimate building energy efficiency but instead estimate the cost-­‐effective performance of a building and thus create perverse incentives that may lead to additional CO2 emissions. In this regard, the SAP standard confounds cost-­‐
effectiveness, energy efficiency and environmental performance giving an inadequate estimate of all three policy objectives. Important contributions for improving measurement, analysis, synthesis and certification of building performance characteristics are offered. University Of Cambridge
Investment And Technological Transitions
Pablo Salas
Under Climate Change Policy Uncertainty In
The Energy Sector Technological Transition, Energy Investment And Climate Policy Uncertainty
The technological transitions in the power sector, which are characterized by the shift from older to newer technologies, have a strong dependence on total investment on the energy industry as well as on the relative allocation of investment between the different energy alternatives. For that reason, climate policy uncertainty, which is interpreted as risk by the investors, has a direct influence on investment in the power sector, and consequently on energy technology transitions. Neither the size nor the direction of that impact are easy to predict, ergo the effectiveness of climate policy, when it is surrounded by uncertainty, becomes unclear. The aim of this work is to study the influence that uncertainty in climate change policy has over the investment in the energy sector and its effect over technological transitions from fossil fuel based technologies toward low carbon alternatives, one of the key elements for climate change mitigation. As a first step toward the modelling of the technological evolution of the power sector, an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources has been developed during the first year of research. These are presented in the form of cost-­‐supply curves, calculated with strong emphasis on uncertainty, represented using ranges in the cost-­‐supply planes. The results of this work are intended for use by the modelling community in order to constrain energy sector models in terms of energy potentials, providing an update to the existing literature and a comprehensive source of readily useable data. Michael Traut University Of Manchester
Quantifying Shipping Emissions
Shipping, International Transport, Climate Change
Shipping currently accounts for about 3% of global CO2 emissions. Like all sectors, shipping must drastically decarbonise over the coming decades in line with broadly agreed climate change mitigation targets. With demand for freight transport expected to grow, shipping faces a difficult challenge. Even as a mandatory energy efficiency regulation for newly-­‐built vessels has been put into place by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), the scientific literature on low carbon shipping technology is thin. This work addresses that gap by assessing the share that wind as a renewable energy source may contribute towards sustainable ship propulsion. Numerical models of wind power technologies for shipping are combined with wind data from the UK Met Office’s Unified Model. Along the globe’s major shipping routes, the potential wind power input towards a ship’s propulsion is calculated. The replicable findings will strengthen the information basis of policy discussions that are currently taking place at the national, European, and global level. They will also be relevant to strategic decision-­‐making as shipping faces the prospect of scarce resources and tightening regulation. 12 More generally, advancing openly accessible knowledge on low carbon shipping technology may prove to be key to successful, boundary-­‐crossing cooperation -­‐ in a world that is ever more interconnected, not least by international trade and shipping, and climate change. Beatrice
Cointe Affiliation Centre
Energy transition, market niches and local
International de
governance: the development of solar
Recherche sur
photovoltaic in France. l’Environnement et le
Développement (CIRED) Photovoltaic, Energy Transition, Technology Deployment, Incentives
Though its contribution to the global energy mix remains modest, solar photovoltaic (PV) is often presented as a crucial player in the transition towards low carbon energy and a key element for climate change mitigation. It is still dependent on policy support, as recent developments in several European countries (Spain, France, Czech Republic, UK) have shown.
A close look at what happened in France in late 2010-­‐early 2011, when the incentive framework was suspended for three months before being re-­‐ajusted, sheds a light on this technology. PV seems hard to grasp: it embraces a wide range of technologies and applications and a long value chain. Its development occurs on a global scene and is extremely dynamic and hard-­‐to-­‐track, hence challenging policy-­‐making -­‐ without which it cannot yet exist. Is photovoltaic working? What makes it so promising, yet so uncertain? How can its deployment be regulated? PV is one of these emerging technologies and policy devices that are expected to play an important role on a relatively short timescale and to make the “energy transition” possible. In this respect, studying it can contribute to understanding the difficulties encountered in calibrating, implementing and monitoring policies to foster innovation and technology development for climate change mitigation. However, how to tackle those difficulties and their policy implications is not clear yet. I will attempt to show this by outlining analytical and methodological challenges raised by this technology, by the instruments set in place to support it, and by the objectives underlying this support. Posters
Andrew Welfle
University Of Manchester
Dimitrios
Zafirakis
Teresa Chiang
University Of East Anglia
Xinfang Wang
Edward Byers
University Of East Anglia
University Of Newcastle
University Of Bath
'Biomass' , 'Renewable Energy' , 'Resource' And
'Sustainability'
Energy Storage, Wind Energy, Cost-Benefit
Analysis, Climate Change Abatement
Energy Display Design, Colour, Preference
Household, Consumption, Emission, Socioeconomic, Distribution
Water-Energy Nexus, Hydrology, Water
Abstraction, Modelling
13 Cities & Coasts
Cities are major emitters of greenhouse gases and consumers of global resources. Their high density of people, infrastructure and property makes them highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Many of the world’s largest cities are on the coastline and coastal cities are major gateways for materials, energy and economic interactions with between nations. 0ur coastline and our cities will be among the first to respond to global change. Paper Session Speakers
Till Sterzel
Potsdam Institute For
Climate Impact Research
A Global Typology Of Urban Livelihood
Vulnerability Under Rapid Coastal
Urbanization
Coastal Urbanization, Typology, Global Change, Vulnerability, Cluster Analysis
Rapid and unprecedented urbanization is underway in a coastal band in non-­‐OECD countries. Long-­‐standing and emerging challenges include different global change aspects, such as climate change, urban sprawl, and urbanization. Combinations of these aspects result in multiple mechanisms that generate vulnerability for urban livelihoods, threatening both human well-­‐being and ecosystems. For rapidly growing urban areas we present a first global categorization of these mechanisms into typical manifestations using sub-­‐national and national data. After using case studies to identify typical vulnerability generating mechanisms, we formalize and indicate their most relevant elements with 17 globally available indicators. They include, inter alia, exposures and sensitivities to climate related extreme events, sea-­‐level rise, marginalization, urban population growth, urban sprawl, management capacity, and prevalence of wetland ecosystems. Applying an established cluster analysis reveals a typology of six clearly distinguishable mechanisms with typical combinations of indicator values. The two poorest clusters are most vulnerable to extreme events and comprise some of the World’s most rapidly growing populations, and the highest slum population rates (e.g. in Dacca, Maputo, Port-­‐au-­‐Prince, Manila, and Fuzhou). In the wealthiest cluster including Mumbai, Belém, and Cape Town, low exposure and highest management capacity result in similar flood sensitivity, showing that capacity to adapt does not mean adapting. We discuss how disadvantaged urban areas are efficiently translating their limited adaptive capacities into reduction of vulnerability, and in how far this typology of vulnerability is also one of vulnerability-­‐reducing measures. 14 Marta
Olazabal
University Of Cambridge
Sustainable Urban Development In Times Of
Climate Change And Resource Scarcity:
Postulates Of Urban Resilient Sustainability
Transitions: A Cross-Disciplinary
Cities, Sustainability, Transitions, Low Carbon, Resilience
Significant steps have been made towards reaching the goal of sustainable development in urban areas in the last two decades, especially in industrialised countries. However, there is still a long way to go in cities to correct key problems regarding socio-­‐economic inequalities, environmental degradation and overconsumption. Cities are facing old and emergent global challenges including demographic growth, ageing and climate change. In this paper we pose the question of whether cities will be able to respond to these challenges with the current management and planning practices. Based on current and future consumption demands of energy, food, space, etc. the aim of this paper is to bring to the fore the notion of “urban resilient sustainability” to answer to questions such as: what is the added value of the idea of urban resilience for urban sustainable development? Furthermore, given the current unsustainable urban trends, how are local transitions stimulated towards resilient sustainability? We attempt to provide some answers based on the fast growing, although highly scattered, conceptual and empirical literature on urban resilience and by paying special attention to the role of urban governance towards sustainability transitions which we argue require the fulfilment of a set of key necessary conditions. Speed Presentation Speakers Natalie Foster University of Southampton
Sustainable mudflats and saltmarshes: from
systemic understanding to systemically
feasible and desirable actions
Intertidal Mudflats, Saltmarsh, Nature Conservation, Coastal Defence, Decision-Support System
The adoption of the Convention on Biological Diversity at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992 committed the UK to conserve and sustainably use biological diversity for the benefit of present and future generations. Twenty years on, and despite ‘no net loss’ policies and reparation schemes, intertidal mudflat and saltmarsh losses, which are attributed predominantly to human development and climate change, continue to exceed gains in the UK. By applying The Open University’s framework for environmental decision making to a case study of the Solent region, where intertidal mudflat and saltmarsh loss is widespread and advancing, this research aims to develop a better understanding of the factors influencing decision making, how these factors are interconnected, and what might be changed to improve the current situation. Hence, it will design, and validate via action research, a decision support system. This will facilitate the implementation of concerted actions to further progress towards sustainable intertidal mudflats and saltmarshes in the UK. Blanca
Garcia
Newcastle University
Broad scale urban flood risk analysis for
climate impacts and adaptation Climate Change, Flooding, Cities, Adaptation And Modeling
15 The consideration of climate change in the development of sustainable cities is indeed important. Nonetheless, the interaction between these 2 areas has received far too little attention. The need for cities to become more sustainable is not questionable. However, to the date there has not been a quantitative assessment of the adaptation measures that could be implemented to make cities more sustainable. The results of this evaluation will provide urban planners, engineers and policy-­‐makers with essential information when creating plans, designs and strategies to reduce GHG emissions and to adapt urban areas to future climate change. The aim this project seeks to achieve is the development a broad scale methodology for urban flood risk analysis to support climate impacts and adaptation against pluvial flooding. This will be done by evaluating real case studies such as: the town of Morpeth, the city of Newcastle, the city of Barcelona and the megacity of London. The resilience of each modelled area will be evaluated under present and future conditions (for the UK areas, the UKCP09 scenarios will be implemented) with the CityCat software. CityCat is a project funded by the Environment Agency’s Local Levy (raised by the Northumbria Regional Flood Defence Committee, based on an existing state-­‐of-­‐the-­‐art 2-­‐D hydrodynamic model NOAH 2D developed at Newcastle University. A series of broad scale adaptation measures will be tested to assess their effectiveness at managing urban flood risk. Some of the adaptation measures that are expected to be evaluated include: greenroofs, soakways, rainwater harvesting systems, filter strips/trenches, pervious pavements, swales, retention basins, sand filters. Merryn
Thomas Understanding Risk Group
Cardiff University
Sea-level change on the Severn Estuary:
creating an expert model of the risks
Sea-Level Rise, Climate Change, Public Perception, Understanding, Subjective Probability
Climate change is predicted to pose a growing threat to people around the world, particularly in low-­‐lying coastal zones that are vulnerable to sea-­‐level rise and changes in extreme events. As people become increasingly exposed to the risks, understanding their beliefs and responses will become ever more important. Research shows that experts and lay publics often diverge in their conception and assessment of risks. Understanding these different perceptions can help in developing more constructive forms of communication and participatory decision-­‐making. Although research has identified differences in lay and expert understandings of climate change, we do not yet know how these groups understand sea-­‐level change. This study uses a mental models approach to explore and compare expert and public perceptions of the risks of future sea-­‐level change on the Severn Estuary, with a view to the future design of risk communications. In this paper I report the first phase, involving interviews with (n=11) experts. Each session included a semi-­‐
structured interview, the creation of an influence diagram and a subjective probability elicitation of future sea-­‐level rise. I will discuss the results of the probability elicitation, which indicate considerable uncertainties and a wide range of possible sea-­‐level futures. I will also outline a conceptual model of the risks, developed from the semi-­‐structured interviews and influence diagrams. This research phase underscores the complex nature of change on the Estuary, and the uncertainties involved in predicting its future response; both of which have implications for designing communications that will meet the needs of the public. Posters
Charlotte
Hopkins
University of Glasgow
Marine Protected Areas
16 Governance & Behaviour
Although the basic science of climate change has steadily become clearer and less contested amongst scientists, climate change science is contested among the public and the debates about how to govern mitigation and adaptation have become more intense in policy circles. Research in the Governance and People Theme explores the underlying causes and potential policy solutions to climate change mitigation and adaptation challenges in the broader context of the transition to sustainability, from global to local, and across sectors. Paper Session Speakers
Julio Postigo
University of Texas
The Multiscalar Responses Of Andean
Pastoralism Social Ecological System (SES)
To Climate Change
Pastoralist Social Ecological System, Climate Change, Andes, Quelcaya
17 Glacier retreat and increased climatic variability are the most conspicuous effects of CC for pastoralists in the Peruvian Southern Andes. Though SES of mountain pastoralists are among the first experiencing effects of CC, little is known about its responses to current climatic changes. This presentation addresses three knowledge gaps: i) the responses of Andean pastoralism SES to CC; ii) the climate change coping strategies of sub-­‐national governments (SNGs); and iii) the relationships between pastoralist responses and government actions to CC. Data was collected through vegetation quadrats, semi-­‐structure interviews, surveys, and focus groups. These methods were applied across multiple layers of governance, from pastoralists and community leaders, to high officials of three SNGs. Results indicate that while plants’ upper limit is shifting upwards, Andean pastoralists have responded to effects of CC by creating wetlands, managing seasonal grazing areas, learning to cultivate, and combining traditional knowledge with veterinary medicine. SNGs relegate environmental issues to a secondary priority. Their strategies to face CC aim to secure water provision for urban needs; for instance, farming irrigation, power generation and human consumption in cities. The relationship between pastoralists and their SNG prevents synergistic activities to cope with CC. In doing so, it limits adaptive responses of the SES to acute CC in the Peruvian Southern Andes. A possible path for adjustment may be building a polycentric network governance. This network would provide horizontal coordination amongst relevant stakeholders located at different levels, while including mechanisms to assure egalitarian and democratic interactions amongst network members. Karen
Anderton
University Of Oxford
Sub-National Government Responses To
Reducing The Climate Impact Of Cars
Policy Implementation, Governance, Leadership, Barriers, Emission Reduction
Research investigating the effectiveness of efforts to reduce transport emissions based on the policy content abounds. Therefore, this paper is not concerned with the ‘what’ – the substance of policies designed to reduce transport emissions; but the ‘how’ – policy design, development and implementation – and the ‘who’ is involved in decision making and has ultimate responsibility. Considering 4 distinct themes (scale, scope, leadership/power and process) as well as the barriers faced, this paper highlights the major outcomes from an international comparative study examining four state governments (Bavaria, California, Scotland and South Australia) that have pronounced themselves to be ‘leaders’ on climate change. Whether this leadership extends to transport policy is a central consideration. Framed in cross-­‐disciplinary governance theory, the research takes one policy to reduce GHG emissions from cars in each context and develops the concept of ‘sub-­‐national governance’ to evolve the notion that each level of government has a specific role to play and distinct relationships with the ‘middle’ tier of government. It highlights that ideas of policy diffusion from either ‘top down’ or ‘bottom up’ do not reflect the complex reality and furthermore examines the presupposition that transport-­‐related climate change policy depends on horizontal and vertical interaction to succeed. Appraising Geoengineering
Rob Bellamy University Of East Anglia
Geoengineering, Public Participation, Social Appraisal
Deliberate large-­‐scale interventions in the Earth’s climate system – known collectively as climate ‘geoengineering’ – have been proposed in order to moderate anthropogenic climate change. Political, private and public interests in geoengineering proposals are rising against a backdrop of many ways of framing the supposed normative rationales for or against their use. Whatever the framing, geoengineering proposals are now undergoing serious consideration by prominent institutions and governments around the world. To support decision makers in the multitude of necessary governance considerations a growing number of appraisals are being conducted to evaluate the pros and cons of the different proposals. A significant knowledge gap in itself, geoengineering appraisals are reviewed here for the first time to reveal a 18 strong emphasis on traditional, risk-­‐based and narrow ‘expert-­‐analytic’ appraisal techniques. Through a critical review of their instrumental framing conditions, appraisals of geoengineering are shown to be prematurely ‘closing down’ the range of technology options, whilst largely excluding publics from vital deliberations. As the case is made for more reflexive and adaptive systems of governance, here we exhibit the initial findings of an innovative upstream, participatory, multi-­‐criteria option appraisal process called Deliberative Mapping; designed to provide critical policy support by engaging both experts and citizens whilst opening up the range of policy options. The relative performance of different geoengineering interventions as well as mitigation and adaptation options is discussed for the first time to provide a 360° snapshot of the divergent perspectives bearing upon contemporary climate change decision making.
Sandra
Boegelein
University Of East Anglia
The Importance Of Social Dilemma
Awareness For Sustainable Choices
Social Dilemma, Environmental Concern, Meat Consumption, Externalities
The challenge of mitigating climate change has frequently been described as a social dilemma. In a social dilemma the individual has stronger incentives to pursue non cooperative, unsustainable behaviour but the best outcome for all (mitigation of climate change) would result from mutual cooperation. Several studies have investigated factors that foster cooperation in social dilemmas, but a key question remains: To what extent do people perceive choices concerning emission reduction behaviour as social dilemmas? We addressed this first question by asking people to state their opinion on problems and behaviours that can objectively be classified as social dilemmas. We analysed to what extent participants mentioned social dilemma characteristics in their statements. Results suggest that people differ in their perception of social dilemma structures. These findings raise the question whether an explicit social dilemma framing can influence peoples’ mitigation intentions. To answer this question we implemented a social dilemma framing manipulation and tested its effect on psychological constructs associated with mitigation intent. This manipulation of social dilemma awareness influences attitudes towards emission reduction behaviour, the acceptance of governmental regulations and intentions to increase mitigation behaviour. The study adds an important contribution to the literature on perception about mitigation behaviours and explores potential ways to foster cooperation. In the case of climate change increasing cooperation behaviour through awareness of the underlying social dilemma provides an important step in the direction of a successful mitigation process. The importance of such a process cannot be overestimated.
Speed Presentation Speakers Raquel
Nunes
University Of East Anglia
Dimensions Of Resilience To Extreme Heat
And Cold Risks
Resilience; Extreme Temperatures; Risk; Adaptation
19 Climate-­‐related health risks are likely to increase in the near future for vulnerable individuals such as older people. This poses many challenges and opportunities for society on how to adapt to climate change and increase overall resilience. This paper presents research aiming to understand the factors underpinning resilience to extreme heat and cold risks by exploring the relationships between physical, psychological, social and environmental resources. The study adopts social ecological perspective and draws upon research on resilience, health promotion, social capital, adaptation and risk perception among elderly people. An exploratory research design is used to explore the significance of different resources in promoting resilience. An innovative mixed methods approach that combines quantitative and qualitative methods is used to explore the role of perceptions, knowledge and protective behaviours in adapting to the risks posed by extreme temperatures. Research outputs are expected to contribute significantly towards identifying the role of psychological, physical, environmental and social resources in promoting resilience to extreme temperatures. This research represents an opportunity to inform international, national and local governance on the promotion and protection of older people’s health from extreme heat and cold risks, and will benefit a growing ageing population. Rachel
Macrorie
University Of East Anglia
Energising Communities: Exploring The
Dynamics Of Domestic Practices & Adaptive
Governance In Low-Carbon Living
Sustainable Energy Consumption, Adaptive Governance, Co-Management, Social Practices
Reducing UK housing emissions, both by addressing building fabric and occupant interactions, forms an essential component of the UK Government’s climate change mitigation strategy (DCLG, 2007). Residential carbon emissions comprise 27% of the UK total, with domestic demand currently outstripping improvements in energy efficiency (DCLG, 2007; DECC, 2011a). Combining mitigation at the household level with the need for additional housing provision has resulted in endorsement of the eco-­‐town concept (DCLG, 2008) to complement existing retrofit schemes (Walker et al. 2007; DTI, 2000, 2006). These new low-­‐carbon developments act as a means to pilot energy-­‐efficient and renewable technologies, but they are also intended to enhance understandings of ‘occupant behaviour, culture and consumer-­‐choice’ (Levine et al., 2007: 389). Recognising the shortcomings of existing policy approaches (DECC, 2011b), this research uses the lens of social practices theory to understand how structures and processes help to generate energy-­‐consuming practices and pin them in place, and how domestic activities may (or may not) be negotiated and reconfigured to be less energy intensive (e.g. Shove, 2003). At a community level, issues such as the equitability and inclusivity of resource governance approaches will be explored. At a household level, drawing upon the concept of adaptive governance, opportunities for collective learning and co-­‐management of practices (Strengers, 2011) in new low-­‐carbon & existing retrofitted housing contexts will be assessed. At a practice level, householders’ perceptions and daily activities will be analysed alongside consumption data to identify the potential for lasting downward consumption changes. Kim Coetzee University Of Cape Town
Manufacturing Content: Paradigms, Power,
Poverty And Geo-Politics In India
Growth Paradigm; Cbdr; Unfccc; Low Carbon Development Strategies (Lcds); India
20 In the shadow of the ongoing global economic crisis, the COP17 ‘Durban Platform for Action’ sets the scene for a renewed period of multilateral climate change negotiations within a changing geopolitical landscape. This new geopolitics implies that large developing economies like India and China are no longer automatically shielded by the UNFCCC’s concept of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) and Respective Capacities (RC) despite their domestic priorities to address poverty. This research seeks to explain whether, and if possible, how, a large developing country (India) may address the challenges of developmental priorities within a carbon-­‐constrained world, with specific focus on the emerging discourse of Low Carbon Development Strategies. The research will attempt to discover whether Stephen Purdey’s concept of the growth paradigm and Robert W. Cox’s “three-­‐forces” critical theory of international relations have relevance in a developing country context and can be usefully applied as explanatory constructs of Low Carbon Development Strategies. This is ongoing research based at the University of Cape Town. The intention is to hold workshops with key stakeholders in India through the channel of the Basic Experts Group which usually convenes just before the quarterly BASIC Ministerials. In addition Critical Discourse or Frame Analysis of communications from government and civil society will be the mainstay of the analytical component. It is hoped that this research will eventually highlight what the implications are for how large developing countries address issues of poverty & inequality within Low Carbon Development Strategies whilst operating within a new geopolitics. Daniel
Wheelock
University Of Cardiff
Tilting At Wind Farms? Representing
Climate Change In Public Discourse. The
Impact Of Advertising On The Meaning Of
Climate Change
Public Discourse, Media, Climate Change, Representation
The contestation of climate change and potential actions to deal with it by the public takes place within public discourse. Past studies have concentrated on competing meanings of climate change at the level of public discourse as a whole, for example framing. However, less attention has been paid to the representations of climate change that are used to construct these meanings in individual messages. My project proposes that there are a limited number of common climate change representations (both linguistic and visual, for example ‘the green economy’ and wind turbines respectively) within public discourse available for this purpose. As a result, these representations will be key sites in the public contestation of the meanings of climate change. The study aims to identify the most frequent representations of climate change in public discourse and the meanings most commonly attached to them; by combining audience and producer research, with a quantitative and qualitative content analysis of these representations use in advertising. The study proposes that while these representations can have different meanings, they will favour some readings over others. As a result, over time the repeated use in public discourse of the most common representations will favour particular meanings of climate change over others. For example ‘the green economy’ is likely to favour an understanding of climate change as involving a technological fix rather than a return to nature, although it could be read the other way. Understanding these representations’ role in making climate change meaningful could be valuable for climate communicators. Marisa Camargo
University Of Helsinki
21 Integrating The Private Sector
In Redd+
Climate Change, Forest, REDD+, Private Sector, Governance
The UNFCCC has estimated that 86% of the global finance required to respond to climate change must come from private funds. Deforestation plays a large role in contributing to climate change, so there has been some interest from private organizations to address it worldwide. However, there is currently no international framework with incentives for private actors to engage in Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) at a larger scale. In addition, little academic research has been undertaken on this subject due to the novelty of the issue, and the fact that it is an interdisciplinary topic that requires the researcher to study the issue through multidisciplinary lenses. My research is examining how to effectively integrate different types of private organizations into REDD+, by addressing 3 questions: (i)Is the private sector interested and engaged in REDD+?; (ii)What are the positive and negative impacts of private sector engagement in REDD+ so far?; (iii)What are the potential options to integrate different types of private organizations in the REDD+ mechanism? To achieve solid results, I aim pursuing an interdisciplinary line of studies and conducting several interviews as to have a better understanding of relevant stakeholders’ viewpoints and concerns. My research will also be carried out in collaboration with a large global program called “Global Comparative REDD Study”, coordinated by the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR). The aim is to contribute to building a clearer picture on how the private sector can engage in REDD+ through innovative models such as public-­‐private-­‐partnerships. Posters
Ilaria Gallo
Lancaster University
Kristy Revell
University College London
Margaret Thorley
University of Cambridge
Romain
Weikmans
Sam Barrett
Université Libre de Bruxelles
Sara De Wit
University of Cologne
Sílvia Cosme
Technical University of
Lisbon
Université Libre de Bruxelles
Valentine Van
Gameren
Katja Saewert
Trinity College Dublin
Hafen City University
Hamburg
Knowledge Systems, Global Environmental
Research, Science-Policy Interface, Developing
Countries, Knowledge Divide
Pro-Environmental Behaviour Change, Local
Authorities, Sustainability Performance, Uk
Energy Efficiency, Building Retrofits, Behaviour
Change, Built Environment, Climate Change
Mitigation
Climate Change Adaptation; Vulnerability To
Climate Change;Africa; Indicators
Climate Finance, Justice, Distribution,
Effectiveness
'Travelling' Climate Change Discourses,
(Discursive) Power, Cameroon
Transportation Systems; Resilient Behaviour;
Azores
Climate Change Adaptation, Adaptive Capacity,
Risk Perceptions, Private Actors, Forestry
Climate Change Adaptation; Climate Change
Mitigation; Interrelationships; Spatial Planning;
Climate Justice In Spatial Planning
Q Methodology; Decision-Making; Avoiding
Deforestation; Sustainable Farming Land-Uses
China, Environmental Performance
Measurement, Indicators, Remote Sensing
Aiora Zabala
University of Cambridge
Angel Hsu
Yale University
Charlotte
Schwesinger
University of Heidelberg
Anxiety - Risk Perception - Information Search Decision Making - Geoengineering
Jana Lemke
Viadrina European University
Education For Sustainability, Nature
Connectedness, Empowerment, Behavior
Change, Mixed-Method Approach.
22 Lauren Roffey
University of East Anglia
Sabine Reinecke
University of Freiburg
Sarah Cooper
Stefano Moncada
University of Reading
University of Malta
Privileged Actors In Policymaking: A Case
Study Of The Uk Aviation Industry
Climate Change, Unfccc, International
Regimes, Global Governance And Networked
Governance
Adaptation, Governance,Learning, Resilience
Adaptation, Adaptive Capacity, Oda, Sids, Eu.
Zerrin Savasan
The Middle East Technical
University
Delft University of
Technology
Knowledge Gap, Climate Change, Compliance
Mechanism, Kyoto Protocol
Adaptation, Building process, Climate change,
Governance, Social housing
Matin Roders
23 Water & Land
The use of the planet’s water and land resources are intimately linked with each other and with the climate. Water and land use relates to both the mitigation of climate change via reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, and to adaptation via their role in climate change impacts. The water and land theme focuses on issues associated with the availability, use and governance of water and land resources and how they interact with climate change. Paper Session Speakers
Nicola
Favretto
University of Leeds
Jatropha curcas Energy Crop Cultivation:
Policy And Livelihood Implications In Mali
Jatropha curcas, Mali, Biofuels Policy, Energy Security, Sustainable Livelihoods
Fossil fuel depletion, energy security and climate change concerns have precipitated recent investments in biofuels. However, empirical case study data on the benefits and drawbacks of biofuels is lacking. This paper presents new integrated mixed-­‐
method multi-­‐level assessments of the potential for inedible biodiesel crop Jatropha curcas to diversify livelihood strategies and enhance energy access in rural Mali. It addresses knowledge gaps on the role of climate change policy instruments and multi-­‐
stakeholder dialogue on the uptake of biofuel initiatives. A combination of questionnaires and participatory methods were utilised, including transect walks, seasonal calendars and in-­‐depth interviews in communities, alongside interviews with key national policy stakeholders. These techniques allow investigation of the policy context, as well as socio-­‐economic factors associated with energy access, livelihoods and agriculture, labour availability and access to assets. Data show that small-­‐scale Jatropha cultivation by households involved with NGO or private sector activities has the potential to increase financial capital and reduce household expenditure due to income from the sale of Jatropha seeds and soap made from Jatropha oil. Grown as a living fence, Jatropha demarcates property reducing land tenure conflicts and limits soil erosion. Projects focusing on Jatropha use for rural electrification offer potential to improve fuel and energy access. However, biodiesel supplies remain insufficient for these benefits to materialise and gaps between policy targets and actual yields are identified. Findings show that ambitious land cover targets set within national policies in relation to production can risk land use shifts away from food production and towards biofuels. Kate Walker
University of Cardiff
Management Plans In Response To Climate
Driven Environmental Change
Erosion, Riverscapes, Public Perception And Climate Change
A major source of river pollution is soil as a result of erosion processes often exacerbated by poor land management decisions. Climate change is likely to significantly affect these processes, although currently little is known about how this will vary under different climate change scenarios. It is anticipated that any successful method to control future sediment movement into rivers will be achieved by a combination of understanding the processes behind future erosion rates and obtaining public understanding and support for any mitigation measures. Thus a two-­‐
stranded approach is being used to investigate this issue. First, the Pan European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA) model has been used to predict future erosion rates for three river catchments across the United Kingdom under three climate change scenarios, and identify how these may be ameliorated by land use choices. Initial results show increases in erosion from low to high emission scenarios. Successful implementation of the Water Framework Directive explicitly involves public participation and research highlights the significance of water within the landscape for many individuals. The second stage 24 of the research therefore involves investigating public perceptions of rivers though a series of focus groups and questionnaires. The aim is to assess riverscape preferences, views on possible mitigation measures to control soil movement into rivers and an evaluation of risks to rivers associated with climate change. Initial results from the focus group phase will be presented, along with the modelling results. Rebecca
Darbyshire
University of Melbourne
Impact Of Temperature Change On
Southern Australian Pome Fruit Phenology
Sensitivity Study, Vernalisation, Fruit
A plethora of climate change impact analyses have been conducted for both Australian and international agricultural systems. These studies are frequently conducted for different future time periods, using different sub selections of Atmosphere-­‐Ocean Global Circulation Models and apply different emission scenarios. Resultantly, cross-­‐sector and cross-­‐location impact statements are difficult to compare. This confusion in interpretability of results may contribute to inaction, especially evident in Australia, and could potentially lead to maladaptation in agricultural sectors. Shifting the methodological lens to focus on threshold based changes rather than time dependent outcomes is one approach to gain some consistency. Sensitivity studies, which assess how systems react to defined perturbations, are one way to deliver such clarity. A sensitivity approach will be discussed that produces climate projection data for localised changes based on 1, 2 and 3°C increases to mean global temperatures. The method will be demonstrated using examples of temperature based impacts on apple and pear fruit in Australia. Using sensitivity studies in agricultural impacts assessments will allow different industries to be compared as well as Australian versus international impacts. Indeed, such an approach could be applied to other environmental sectors highlighting concurrent and potentially compounding impacts. Further, impact statements generated in this way will remain valid even with updates to emission scenarios or changes in global emission trajectories. Overall, there is sense in using sensitivity studies.
Speed Presentation Speakers Stella
Nordhargen
University of Cambridge
Seeds Of Resilience: Agricultural
Biodiversity, Farmer Seed Systems And
Response To Environmental Change
Agriculture, Adaptation, Resilience, Development
The foundation of agriculture is seed. Seeds are the basic plant genetic materials farmers use to produce crops, and agriculture’s resilience to environmental change depends on a firm foundation of ‘seed security.’ Though some work has been done on the role of seed systems in natural disaster response, these have lacked a coherent and dynamic framework and rarely consider the seed system’s role in facilitating responses to slower environmental changes. This PhD tackles this gap using novel primary data from household surveys and group and individual interviews of farmers in two diverse case studies. Seed security, analogous to food security, includes aspects of availability, access and utilisation. In this PhD, the final of these is tackled first: factors motivating farmers’ crop and cultivar choices, in particular the place of climate among these, are examined to understand the role of crop choice and agricultural biodiversity in farmers’ resilience to environmental (and other) changes and shocks. Availability and access are then probed. A resilience-­‐based framework is developed and used to structure examinations of farmer seed systems and their role in farmer response to environmental shocks and changes. The knowledge contributed by this research will be useful for academics, policymakers, and practitioners as we join together to tackle to challenges facing agriculture in the coming years of environmental, social, and economic change. 25 Delphine
Deryng
University of East Anglia
More Fertilizer For More Food? An Analysis
Of Future Fertiliser Use And Resulting
Greenhouse Gases Emissions Using The
Global Crop Yield Model PEGASUS Global Crop Yield Gap, Climate Change, Fertiliser Use, GHG Emissions, Land Use Change
Crop production today already uses a substantial share of global natural resources (37% of terrestrial land, 66% of societal water withdrawal…etc.), impacting the climate system and the environment. Furthermore, global food demand is projected to increase in the future mainly due to the growing population of the developing world and its economic development leading to an increase in global average food consumption per capita. At the same time, climate change is projected to reduce crop yields in many parts of the world. Since most of the land suitable for agriculture is already in use, additional food is likely to be produced by increasing yield rather than through cropland expansion, unless further tropical deforestation occurs. While past increases in fertiliser use have successfully increased yields, nutrient use efficiency has declined by a factor of two, revealing weaknesses in crop management systems. Here, we use the global crop yield model PEGASUS (Predicting Ecosystem Goods And Services Using Scenarios) to explore scenarios of future food production and fertiliser use requirement that meet global demand and take into account the effects of climate change. We quantify the additional fertiliser needed to increase yield in Mike
Simpson Imperial College London
Water Resource Impact And Adaptation Under
Climate Change For The Isle Of Wight
Water Resources, Groundwater, Adaptation
Adaptation to changing water requirements is of increasing importance to the UK. Climate changes will restrict conventional water resources practise, exacerbated by increased population and tightened regulation. An assessment of the impact of these processes on water availability is a sensible first stage in developing an adaptive strategy at the catchment scale and would be of potential interest to regulators and the water industry as a tool for decision-­‐making. A modelling process for forecasting groundwater and surface water levels from stochastic predictions of rainfall and temperature is presented, along with a methodology for incorporating anticipated changes in abstraction and environmental requirements into an evaluation of future water demands. The model used develops existing parametric surface water models through inclusion of a groundwater storage term. It is calibrated to historic data and run under extended synthetic weather time series, allowing a probable range of groundwater/surface water conditions to be examined. Volumes of water available for abstraction are calculated and can be examined both temporally and spatially to investigate the suitability of a range of adaptive strategies, with restrictions on the availability and demand for water set in response to information on forecast changes in water use, population and abstraction restrictions. Assessed strategies will include land-­‐use changes, surface and groundwater storage and desalination/water importing. A case study from the Isle of Wight is used to illustrate the application of such an approach, allowing the process by which such a model can be translated into a potentially functional forecasting tool to be demonstrated. 26 Rachel James
University
of Implications Of Global Warming For African
Oxford
Precipitation Africa, Precipitation, Projections, Mitigation, Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference
For almost two decades, policymakers have been negotiating temperature limits to which anthropogenic global warming should be restricted, and 2°C has emerged as a benchmark for danger. However, there has been a lack of scientific research into the implications of such a change. This study aims to contribute missing rigour to the debate; through an examination of African precipitation changes associated with 1°C, 2°C, 3°C, and higher degrees of warming. Many African communities are highly vulnerable to shifts in rainfall, thus an analysis of precipitation projections is vital if African politicians are to determine what constitutes dangerous climate change from a regional perspective. Global climate models are the best tools available for this investigation, and results from two ensembles will be presented: the multi-­‐model ensemble prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, and a perturbed physics ensemble developed at the Met Office Hadley Centre. On average, the models show a wet signal in the tropics and a dry signal in the subtropics. These changes are enhanced from 1°C to 2°C to 3°C and beyond, suggesting that the climate will move progressively further from th
20 century conditions as global temperature rises. Evaluation of these projections is imperative if they are to provide useful information for mitigation and adaptation. Here, the mechanisms behind modelled responses have been analysed, to assess their physical plausibility, and identify areas which require model development if we are to better anticipate the implications of global warming for African precipitation. Posters
Katie Smith
Rachel Hale
University of Nottingham
University of East Anglia
Salma Hegga
University of Southampton
Sandra Valencia
Lund University Centre for
Sustainability Studies
University of Bristol
Sarah Jones
Sophie Chollet et
al.
Tim Foster
Modelling; Hydrology; Uncertainty; Global
Climate Change, Ocean Acidification,
Temperature Rise, Biodiversity, Ecosystem
Vulnerability, Flood Preparedness; Social
Capital, Embeddedness, Complementarities,
Tanzania
Vulnerability, Climate Change, Urban-Rural
Linkages, Water, Resilience
Carbon Dioxide Removal; Ocean
Biogeochemical Cycles; Earth System
Modelling
Climate Change, Plankton, Temperature, Light
And Nutrients
'Hydro-Economics', 'Agriculture', 'Adaptation',
'Water Allocation'
University of East Anglia
Imperial College London
27 Poster Session
A session outlining current research ongoing across all themes. Presenters
Climate Justics: A Multi-Scalar Analysis
Sam Barrett
Trinity College Dublin
Climate
Finance;
Justice;
Distribution;
Effectiveness
This article suggests that a multi-­‐scalar and interdisciplinary construct is required to analyse climate justice as an appraisal of the distribution of climate finance for adaptation (CFfA). The analysis of climate justice necessitates a determination of whether the inter-­‐ and intra-­‐state distribution and ultimate effectiveness of CFfA is realised across and between scales. This article finds approaches to climate justice either normative or unable to analyse multiple scales. Using CFfA projects as a proxy, the article applies theoretical frameworks from Geography and Political Science to realise climate justice as an accumulative top-­‐down process. This involves tracking transfers of CFfA between states within the developed and developing world. International Relation’s state-­‐centric focus, and in particular, the development aid distribution literature, have an aptitude to perceive these flows. Second, in order to elucidate the intra-­‐
state distribution of CFfA within recipient states, developing world Political Science/Human Geography retain the capacity to understand neo-­‐patrimonial politics within the developing world as a factor in distribution. Finally, Political Ecology has an established vulnerability framework that can determine the effectiveness of CFfA on the ground in the developing world. For the multi-­‐scalar process of climate justice to be done, inter-­‐
state CFfA distribution must be determined according to climate vulnerability -­‐ then intra-­‐state CFfA distribution must be directed towards climate vulnerable domestic regions -­‐ which then must lessen the climate vulnerabilities for households and communities on the ground. Transition Strategies For Interdependent Infrastructure Futures.
Edward Byers
Newcastle University
Water-Energy Nexus; Hydrology; Water
Abstraction; Modelling
Globally, we are faced with both energy and water security issues, yet energy use in the water sector continues to grow and many recognise that the ‘Water-­‐
Energy Nexus’ (WEN) is poorly understood (Rothausen & Conway, 2011). The UK, often mistaken as a place of abundant water and quality infrastructure, faces serious issues in some regions if the WEN (Water-­‐Energy Nexus) is not addressed. My work provides an overview of water-­‐energy interactions in the UK. Quantifying these interactions using various metrics, for Public Water Supply & Treatment as well as all other raw water abstractions and uses, has enabled better characterisation of the variability of cross-­‐sectoral demands. Using combinations of drivers for climate change, population & demography, economy and fuel prices facilitates robust probabilistic testing of uncertain futures in order to compare the performance of different infrastructure and technologies such as desalination, water transfers, 28 anaerobic digestion, domestic water heating and increased levels of thermo-­‐electric generation. Climate and hydrological variability is also explored to investigate potential infrastructure failure on smaller catchment scales. Which long term conditions leave which infrastructure most vulnerable to climate change hazards and variability and how is this affected by fuel prices and population, are the kinds of questions we aim to answer. Sustainable transitions for the UK WEN are also discussed using metrics to explore tradeoffs between energy intensive supply options and localised approaches, for example. Can You See Me Better This Way? User-Centred Design Of Energy Displays
Teresa Chiang
University of Bath
Energy Display Design; Colour; Preference
Although the concerns about climate change are prevalent, knowledge of energy use and its impact on climate change and the environment is relatively lower. Energy users tend to underestimate their role in reducing energy demand and CO2 emissions. Studies have estimated that about 30% of energy use in the house is due to resident behaviour. To reduce domestic energy consumption, households need to be made aware of the link between their everyday behaviour and the increased CO2 emissions. Many studies have suggested that, among various energy saving interventions, giving feedback could help to increase knowledge and encourage energy conscious behaviours, and this method is particularly effective when coupled with real-­‐time monitoring and display technology. User-­‐centred design on how energy information should be presented is therefore important. The poster presents the results of a study on the design of user interface of energy displays. The aim of the study was to find out if the type of display design and the use of colour would make a difference in how the information presented in them was read and understood. A computerised spot-­‐the-­‐difference task was undertaken, followed by interviews to find out which display design was preferred. It was found that age and gender had no significant effects on response time and accuracy rate; how information was read was affected by the type of display design; and the changing of colour did not significantly facilitate reading information. In general, users preferred numerical design for their in-­‐home displays. Rural Transformations: Livelihood Adaptation To Climate Change In Uganda
Sarah Cooper
University of Reading
Adaptation;
Governance;
Learning;
Resilience
The incertitude of climate change presents major challenges to adaptation and subsequent policy. Although adaptation is concerned with actors, actions and agency; the evaluations of adaptive actions are static in nature and may not provide the flexibility needed to deal with uncertainty. Current thinking suggests governance approaches to climate change need to evolve away from rigid, path-­‐dependent trajectories towards more robust, adaptive strategies that are resilient in the face of uncertainty and change. Central to this concept is adaptive management which proclaims the importance of pro-­‐active leadership, trust, knowledge flow, sense-­‐making and strong, institutional networks, also social learning which reflects multi-­‐stakeholder engagement in experiential learning leading to more desirable futures and outcomes. The case study Uganda has already witnessed the vagaries of unpredictable rainfall variability and rises in temperature. Climate variability and extremes have serious implications for these communities whose livelihoods are already marginalised and natural resource dependent. Research into livelihood responses to climate variability is imperative in understanding adaptation, and to assess existing vulnerabilities and potential transformability. The case study focuses on rural mixed-­‐farming communities and the resilience lens is used to reveal the transformative processes that are contributing to the adaptive capacity of these communities. The coping and adaptive mechanisms used to strengthen livelihoods to challenging climatic events are explored. Further analysis reveals the informal and formal governance pathways and actor networks that contribute to flows of knowledge which support learning and innovation, and how these operate over multi-­‐scales; thus contributing useful knowledge to the adaptation policy process. Embracing Global Sustainability With Island Architectures
29 Sílvia Cosme
Technical University of Transportation
Systems;
Resilient
Lisbon
Behaviour; Azores
The Azorean authorities established very ambitious goals towards improving the energetic and environmental footprint of transportation systems. They want to reduce the Azores’ energy consumption, emission of greenhouse gases and space occupation, by introducing new mobility alternatives. In particular, mobility pattern changes through car-­‐sharing and carpooling systems. This will have a substantial impact on the carbon footprint of transportation, but these gains may largely be offset by increases in both travel demand and population growth. An integrated, multi-­‐strategic approach is thus required, involving considerable changes to current transportation systems, travel behaviour, land use patterns, and public policy and regulations. The societal impacts are critical, if these new alternatives are to provide opportunities for sustainable development. The interactions of land use, human activity, urban metabolism, transportation, energy and communications are complex, particularly when attempting to project the long-­‐range effects of investment choices on behaviour. New forms of governance and thinking are needed, to tackle complex interaction and manage uncertainty. New ways of flexible behaviours are also required, characterized by reflexive, adaptive, collaborative options, combining fundamental and applied knowledge from various fields. It is believed that this endeavour may have a substantial impact, much larger in scope than the Azores, or the local communities; understanding the systems and designing new sustainable transportation systems and pathways, whether for a town, island, or an entire country must be done in a concrete context, with research leading to real, on-­‐the-­‐ground demonstrations that involve communities, authorities and ecosystems resilience. Translating Back And Forth The Climate: Traditional Rulers In The Fight Against Climate
Change” A Case Study Of The Bamenda Grassfields, Northwest Cameroon
Sara de Wit
University of Cologne
'Travelling' Climate Change Discourses;
(Discursive) Power; Cameroon
Moving beyond existing approaches to understanding climate change ‘realities’ in Africa -­‐ in which the biophysical consequences are by and large taken as the focal point of analysis -­‐ this paper wishes to explore alternative perspectives. It will demonstrate how global discourses on climate change enable traditional rulers in Bamenda to re-­‐appropriate local discourses, to redefine their (symbolic) power, and hence, to revitalize their traditional belief system. Even though the rulers’ symbolic power is still engrained in the Bamenda Grassfields, during the colonial period they lost much of their political influence as they turned into auxiliaries of the administration. In November 2009 a group of traditional rulers of the Northwest region in Cameroon jointly formed an organization, which they called Cameroon Traditional Rulers Against Climate Change (CAMTRACC). In practice, this initiative to fight against climate change is resulting in the implementation of the traditional injunctions at the palaces’ institutional level -­‐ thereby risking the downplaying of local farmers’ interests if they fail to contribute to the global fight against climate change. It will be shown how climate change discourses are being embedded in local cosmologies and how different “truth regimes” fuse in their encounter. Central questions to be addressed are: How is climate change (adaptation) translated and appropriated by the rulers, and what does this entail at the local level in terms of social and political transformations? Who can benefit from these emerging discourses and who cannot? What are the methodological implications of a research agenda on “translating the climate”? Using plankton physiological observations to fill knowledge gaps in global marine ecosystem
structure
Sophie
University of East Anglia
Climate Change, Plankton, Temperature,
Chollet, Sian
Light And Nutrients
FochGatrell, Moritz
Heinle, Raffaella
30 Nobili, Beate
Stawiarski, Erik
Buitenhuis
Climate change affects marine habitats worldwide, bringing changes in pH, temperature, light and nutrient concentrations, which are determinant factors for plankton growth ultimately affecting the ecosystem. As plankton form the base of the oceanic food web, such effects could therefore be transported to higher trophic levels, including humans, as well as the atmospheric CO2 sink. Ocean models are used to predict these changes under different climate change scenarios. To realistically represent marine ecosystem processes, physiological observations are needed for model formulation and parameterisation. Our group is building the PlankTOM 10 global biogeochemical model. It simplifies the complex ecosystem into 10 conceptual groups known as plankton functional types (PFTs) which are groups of organisms defined by physiological, biochemical and geographical parameters (6 of phytoplankton, 3 of zooplankton and 1 of bacteria). Here, we present data from physiological experiments with mesozooplankton and 4 phytoplankton PFTs. We show the dependence of zooplankton metabolism on temperature and food quality and of phytoplankton physiology on temperature, light intensity and nutrient concentration. These results have contributed to develop the parameterization of PlankTOM 10 and improved its hindcasting results compared with in situ and satellite data. With a better constrained model we will be able to better mirror satellite and field data therefore helping understand how the ocean will respond to climate change and consequently aid scientists and policy makers worldwide. Hydro-Economic Modelling Of Agricultural Resilience And Adaptation To Climate Change On
The Isle Of Wight
Tim Foster
Imperial College London
Hydro-Economics; Agriculture; Adaptation;
Water Allocation
Agriculture is the dominant land-­‐use in the UK and therefore is an important component of both the hydrological cycle and the economy. In the coming decades we will need to produce more food with fewer resources due to pressures on agricultural production from both climatic and non-­‐climatic changes. Competition for scarce water resources will require a revolution in water management, moving from the current static viewpoint of fixed water rights to an efficient, flexible system which maximises the economic value water provides to society. Hydro-­‐economic models are promising tools for integrated water resources management, utilising this economic principle to transform a multi-­‐objective management problem into a simpler single-­‐
objective issue. Here we develop a novel hydro-­‐agro-­‐economic model for southern England which links hydrologic, agronomic and economic submodels in an integrated modular structure to give a more dynamic coupling of the hydro-­‐climate and agro-­‐economic systems than has previously been attempted in the UK. Deficiencies in current hydro-­‐agro-­‐economic models will be addressed, notably through the development of a more physically-­‐based agronomic model component and an improved economic representation of farmer decision-­‐making accounting for previously neglected 31 factors such as risk aversion and uncertainty. The model will be applied to a case study of the Isle of Wight to assess the efficiency of current water allocations as well as the resilience and adaptive capacity of the agricultural sector to future climatic and socio-­‐economic scenarios. The results will have direct relevance to stakeholders and reveal where innovative policies and adaptations can help sustainably steward water resources. Understanding The Generation Of Climate Change Knowledge Gaps And Its Implication For
Local Policy Making: What Is Really “Missing” In The Global Knowledge Networks Of Climate
Change?
Ilaria Gallo
Lancaster University
Knowledge Systems; Global Environmental
Research; Science-Policy Interface;
Developing Countries; Knowledge Divide
Understanding the dynamics between science, knowledge networks and policy development has remained central to debates about the production and governance of global knowledges within climate change. While the science-­‐policy interface of climate change is globalising in its discourse, it is also marked by distinct power hierarchies and imbalances in the production of knowledge in the global North and South. Meaningful questions around climate change knowledge production and the perceived “gaps” in that knowledge need to consider the issue of what is really at stake, and who is involved, in disputes over what counts as climate change science. This paper explores the idea of where and by whom knowledge gaps are perceived within a non-­‐Western context to investigate the epistemic nature of such claims. What is at stake in the utilization of scientific claims of global climate change at the local policy-­‐making level? The framing of climate change science is not culturally neutral so long as it retains distinct conceptions of science and objectivity and generates modes of inclusion and exclusion of knowledge. These dominant framings also generate what is perceived to be “missing” in those knowledge formations. Furthermore the well-­‐documented knowledge divide between developed and developing countries has important consequences for the quality and universality claims that can be made by climate science. Drawing on the case study of Malawi, the paper explores the role of communities of practice and the possibilities for developing local epistemologies, and how this relationship comes to define and deconstruct knowledge gaps and their internalization in the global knowledge networks of climate change. Predicted Levels Of Future Ocean Acidification And Temperature Rise Could Alter Community
Structure And Biodiversity In Marine Benthic Communities
Rachel Hale
University of East Anglia
Climate Change; Ocean Acidification;
Temperature Rise; Biodiversity; Ecosystem
A mesocosm experiment was conducted to quantify the effects of pH and temperature on an intact marine invertebrate community. Standardised communities from the low intertidal zone were exposed to one of eight nominal treatments (four pH × two temperature levels). After 60 days exposure communities showed significant changes in structure and diversity. At higher pH levels elevated temperature treatments contained higher species abundances and diversity than the lower temperature treatments. At lower pH levels, elevated temperature treatments had lower species abundances and diversity than lower temperature treatments. These species losses were not randomly distributed through phyla examined. Molluscs showed the greatest reduction in abundance and diversity in response to low pH and elevated temperature, whilst annelid abundance and diversity was mostly unaffected by low pH, but higher at the elevated temperature. Arthropods showed moderately reduced abundance and diversity at low pH and elevated temperature. Nematode abundance increased in response to low pH and elevated temperature, probably due to the reduction of ecological constraints. This mesocosm study supports suggestions that ocean acidification induced changes in marine biodiversity will be driven by differential vulnerability within and between different taxonomic groups and illustrates the importance of considering indirect effects occurring within multispecies assemblages. Coping With Floods In Developing Countries: The Role Of Social Capital In Flood
Preparedness Amongst The Rural Communities Of Kilosa District, Tanzania
Salma Hegga
University of Southampton Vulnerability; Flood Preparedness; Social
32 Capital; Embeddedness;
Complementarities; Tanzania
Climate change continues to pose a global challenge and undermine development in developing countries. It accelerates the occurrence of weather related disasters such as floods which adversely affect the sources of livelihood and allocation of resources shifting them from development activities to relief supplies. Climate change is predicted to increase the likelihood of flood events in East Africa. Over the past 30 years, floods have increased in frequency and severity. Highlighting the need to strengthen flood preparedness, it further calls for the need to understand a range of factors that affect flood preparedness. Using the case of Kilosa District, Tanzania, this paper examines the role of social capital in flood preparedness. Rooted in understanding the extent to which complementarity and embeddedness between the Government and the community shapes flood preparedness, the aim of this work is to facilitate a greater understanding of the nature of ties that connect the State and the community and challenge the way disaster management activities have been undertaken in Tanzania. The work focuses on the use of literary review, key informants interviews and focus group discussions to: understand the relations between different stakeholder groups and their implication on flood preparedness. Preliminary findings suggest that the failure of flood preparedness activities is associated with inefficiency of the government which includes ambiguous regulations on disaster management, uncertain funding environment and centralisation of power to few stakeholders. It was further found that relations between the government and the community are characterized by rent-­‐seeking, low levels of trust on the government and clientilism. This suggest the need to incorporate good governance especially involvement of different stakeholder groups in disaster preparedness. Changing The Configuration Of MPA Networks: Adaptation To Climate Change And The SocioEconomic Impacts.
Charlotte Hopkins
University of Glasgow
Marine Protected Areas
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are heralded as a potential solution for many of the threats facing marine ecosystems including to ameliorate the impacts of anthropogenic disturbance. However, with climate change now a major concern at the forefront of conservation planning, there are important questions about the nature of MPAs that need to be addressed. What changes are needed to the configuration of an MPA network to allow climate change adaptation? How would these changes affect their socio-­‐
economic impacts? Inherent in these issues are considerations of MPA design, monitoring strategies, community involvement, and the necessary policy mechanisms required to allow routine re-­‐evaluation and evolution of the network. The complex nature of marine communities, ambiguity surrounding climate change and the intricate interactions between the social and ecological landscape, make answering these questions a daunting yet crucial task. I will highlight some of the key issues surrounding marine protected areas in an uncertain future. Transforming Environmental Decision-Making In China Using Data-Driven Approaches
Angel Hsu
Yale University
China; Environmental Performance
Measurement; Indicators; Remote Sensing
33 As China has become the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, Chinese officials are being called upon to demonstrate the veracity and credibility of mitigation actions, targets, and progress. The issue of whether data and information coming from China can be internationally measured, reported, and verified (MRV) has been of primary concern for the U.S. in the U.N. climate negotiations, at times threatening to stall agreement in the final hours of deliberation. This controversy exemplifies the critical nature of accurate, credible information as well as the importance of information transparency in global environmental governance. Demands for more information in globalized supply chains and monitoring and reporting for multilateral environmental agreements put developing countries like China at an inherent disadvantage due to relatively nascent information capacity and infrastructure. My dissertation is structured in three parts that examine how improved performance metrics can help China in terms of spotting areas where information is strong and weak (Paper One: “Towards an Environmental Performance Index in China”); where improved information can lead to better management and governance (Paper Two: “Satellite-­‐derived air quality indicators in Chinese megacities”); and how information-­‐led decision-­‐making can better poise China for effective engagement in global environmental governance regimes (“Paper Three: “Information transparency in the climate regime: the U.S.-­‐China stand-­‐off on MRV”). Examining these issues comes at a particularly salient time because China is in a period transitioning from an “information-­‐poor environment,” as globalization and international cooperation on environmental issues such as climate change necessitate more information and greater information transparency. Assessing The Effectiveness And Side-Effects Of Carbon Dioxide Removal Proposals
Sarah Jones
University of Bristol
Carbon
Dioxide
Removal;
Ocean
Biogeochemical Cycles; Earth System
Modelling
As governmental interest in geoengineering as a ‘Plan B’ for climate change policy increases, it is becoming imperative that scientists provide policy-­‐makers with relevant, objective information on the effectiveness and also potential side-­‐effects of the various geoengineering proposals. Using cGENIE, an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, this research aims to address the need for information regarding ocean-­‐based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) proposals, by assessing each proposals’ effectiveness and side-­‐
effects under a variety of ’future’ emissions and ‘emissions + SRM’ scenarios. Following these initial assessments, combinations of CDR techniques, for example liming the ocean and micro-­‐nutrient fertilisation, will also be assessed to determine whether efficiency or side-­‐effects are altered when a number of techniques are employed in tandem – arguably a more realistic geoengineering scenario than reliance upon one technique alone. As well as contributing to a greater understanding of CDR proposals, individually and in tandem, this study is novel in that each proposal will be assessed under the same scenario, using the same model and boundary conditions, therefore enabling a direct comparison of effectiveness and side-­‐effects of the different techniques under a range of future scenarios, which will be designed to be of use to policy-­‐makers. This poster will outline the ocean-­‐based CDR techniques that have been proposed in recent years, the scenarios that will be used in the simulations, the criteria against which the proposals will be assessed and, finally, the results from the first set of simulations, regarding ‘liming the ocean’. From A Changing Climate To A Change Of Heart
Jana Lemke
Viadrina
European Education For Sustainability; Nature
University
Connectedness; Empowerment; Behaviour
Change; Mixed-Method Approach.
The world today is presented with multiple challenges such as climate change, financial instability and third world hunger. Our current consumer lifestyle suggests a disconnectedness from our natural resources and world issues, making understanding this complex web of interconnected problems more and more difficult. 34 Thus sustainability has become a matter of formal education. Our interdisciplinary research project focuses on the evaluation of a holistically-­‐
oriented programme of education for sustainability. This includes modules of systems thinking, outdoor living and the experiential exploration of interdependencies. The long-­‐term impact of the programme will be examined within the formal school system. Evaluation will focus on possible changes in the student’s inner representation of self, others and nature and how those changes might relate to behavioural change. We present first evaluation outcomes of the pilot programme, which was implemented as a youth exchange last year in Scotland. Using a mixed-­‐methods approach, 26 participants from 6 different countries were assessed qualitatively, via interviews and field notes, and quantitatively via standardised questionnaires, focusing on constructs such as nature connectedness, psychological empowerment, trust, hope and values. Participants were measured before and directly after the program, and also two months later, where changes in proenvironmental behaviour and actual community engagement were assessed. Outcomes revealed significant changes in the participant’s value system, their connectedness with nature, trust, hope and empowerment. Two months later they reported significantly higher engagement in their local communities. Effect sizes ranged from medium to large. Due to ceiling effects, no significant changes were found for proenvironmental behaviour. Outcomes are discussed In relation to their tangibility and relevance for education for sustainability. Aid to Adapt – The Role of EU Overseas Development Assistance in Climate Change
Adaptation of Small Island Developing States
Stefano Moncada
University of Malta
Adaptation; Adaptive Capacity; ODA; SIDS;
EU.
This paper investigates the impact of the European Union (EU) Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) on the adaptive capacity in Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Building on the work conducted by Schipper (2007), Klein (2007, 2010), and Ayers and Huq (2009) on the different approaches of linking adaptation and development, the paper will contribute by contextualising it within SIDS. There is widespread acceptance in the literature that changes in climate will hit SIDS hardest (Nurse, Moore 2005, Mimura et al. 2007, Briguglio 2010). The limiting resource base of SIDS hinders their adaptation and coping ability, especially when large overhead costs are involved (Smit, Pilifosova 2001, IPCC 2007). As a result, many highlight the need for international support to enhance the adaptive capacity of SIDS (Harmeling 2008, Kelman 2010). The role that the EU’s development and aid policy can play is equally well documented (Carbone 2007, Dearden 2011). The 27 Member States provide over half of global ODA (OECD 2010), with approximately one-­‐fourth of it managed at EU level. The current draft of the paper presents the results of a literature review on the linkages between adaptation and development, with a specific focus on SIDS, as well as examining the degree of mainstreaming adaptation into EU ODA. The paper will subsequently define a methodology for mainstreaming adaptation into EU ODA hence contributing to the academic debate on how to improve the effectiveness of EU aid on climate change adaptation by SIDS – an area where both theoretical research and applied work is scarce. Climate Change Policy And Vulnerability Of Indigenous Forest Communities In East Africa
Elvin Nyukuri
Climate change occurs amid a myriad of social and natural transformations. Understanding and anticipating the consequences of climate change, therefore requires knowledge about the interactions between climate change and other stresses and about the vulnerability of communities and their environments that experience these transformations. 35 The aim of this study is to assess the understanding of climate change related vulnerability of two indigenous forest communities in Kenya and Uganda and examine the impact of climate change policies on these communities, affecting on their livelihood and lifestyle. The study uses a vulnerability framework to illuminate their experiences with climate change, changing conditions in the society (politics, history, behaviour of individuals, environment) as well as how the communities interact with these changes. Governing At A Distance: Global Governance On Adaptation And Mitigation Financing In
Developing Countries
Sabine Reinecke
University of Freiburg
Climate Change; UNFCCC; International
Regimes; Global Governance and
Networked Governance
REDD+ has received strong support by many stakeholders in, both the climate and development policy arena, but the unsatisfactory progress of the post-­‐Kyoto process jeopardizes its fate under the UNFCCC. Despite the pending decision on an international regulatory framework, REDD+ projects and policies are already put in practice at all governance levels. In 2010, the interim REDD+ Partnership was established as a supplementary process to make further progress in this regard. With its focus on implementation, it formally stands outside of the UNFCCC, but de facto it constitutes an alternative forum for relevant issues dealt with under the convention. The relationship between the convention and the Partnership is far from linear and appears at odds with classical concepts of International Relations theory. The striking parallelism between the two processes and the observation that the Partnership ‘informs back’ the regime under the convention illustrate the mutual interactions of different modes of governance. Drawing from theories of global and multilevel governance, my research takes a perspective of ‘governance in networks’ and uses, inter alia, the REDD+ Partnership as a case to further the understanding of environmental regimes as dynamic phenomena that span governance levels and tie various actors together in partly competitive, partly cooperative ways. The Role Of Local Authorities In Stimulating Pro-Environmental Behaviour Change In The
Borough Population
Kristy Revell
University College London
Pro-Environmental Behaviour Change;
Local Authorities; Sustainability
Performance; UK
Fossil fuels are in decline, the temperature is rising and the clock is ticking for the UK’s government to further develop and deliver plans that will reduce the country’s GHG emissions; emissions that were legislated to be reduced under the Climate Change Act 2008. A considerable amount of emission savings are anticipated to come from behaviour change but little has been done to actually identify where these behaviour change savings will come from and how they will be met in practice. This piece of on-­‐going research aims to plug this gap in knowledge by developing a better understanding of how pro-­‐environmental behaviour change can be stimulated by local authorities and subsequently measured. This research aims to understand how and to what extent local authorities can stimulate pro-­‐environmental behaviour change in the borough population and what is the outcome of this on the overall environmental impact of the borough population. Through interviews with local authorities in London, this research has sought to understand what affects the performance of local authority sustainability projects, in reference to pro-­‐environmental behaviour change. 36 The approach that the local authority takes has been identified as one of the most significant factors affecting the performance of sustainability projects, with community-­‐led projects that are supported and facilitated by local authorities tending to be more successful than top down council-­‐led projects in stimulating pro-­‐
environmental behaviour change. Measuring the change in the environmental impact of the population as a result of these projects has been identified as the next phase of this research. Climate Adaptation Governance, The Potential Of Networks In Construction Processes
Martin Roders
Delft
University
of Adaptation; Building Process; Climate
Technology
Change; Governance; Social Housing
M.J. Roders, H.J. Visscher, A. Straub Compared to climate change mitigation, the field of climate change adaptation is in an early stage of scientific development. This is reflected by the limited presence of governance measures and frameworks for adaptation. As a consequence, low awareness of adaptation was detected in a recent study among housing associations. In order to maintain the quality level of the housing stock on the long term, the associations have to start adapting their dwellings. So, to raise their awareness and have them taking action, governance tools have to be developed. A literature study was conducted, resulting in a list with governance tools for housing associations. As a reference for the governance of climate change adaptations, literature on environmental governance is used. Especially the elements of network governance were further elaborated, while proposing a framework for a new governance tool: the construction process. New tools have to be explored while some traditional, as for example regulation or financial incentives, face difficulties in their feasibility due to deregulation trends and economic crisis. The construction process in the Netherlands currently shows a shift from a supply chain with many parties having different goals, towards an integrated approach, where the principal together with the supply chain partners commit themselves to one overarching goal. By not only integrating this supply chain, but also making it ‘intelligent and aware’, climate adaptation is no longer a surplus to the process, but taken into account in any decision. Privileged Actors In Policymaking: A Case Study Of The UK Aviation Industry
Lauren Roffey
University of East Anglia
Governance; Power; Aviation; UK; Marxism
Through an examination of the development of the UK aviation industry, this thesis analyses whether, and if so how and why, certain actors are systematically privileged in the policymaking process. It is claimed in both the scientific and non-­‐scientific spheres that historically the aviation industry has occupied such a position, manifest in its ability to secure planning permission for new runways and terminals, tax breaks for fuel and delayed exclusion from climate change targets despite its well recognised, and growing, environmental impact. However, the existing literature fails to adequately empiricise or explain the precise mechanisms behind this pattern. This thesis therefore focuses on the role of the UK state in arbitrating between rival interests in the historical development of the UK air industry, within a changing European and international context. Two contrasting contemporary political theories are employed to guide the analysis and to help understand the processes at work: the Advocacy Coalition Framework which maintains that policy change arises primarily from competition between rival groups in adjusting to external events and the Strategic-­‐Relational Approach which acknowledges the importance of structural imperatives on the state to consistently favour some actors (i.e. business) over others. To date, most research on the development of the aviation industry has not adopted a long-­‐term perspective and has either eschewed conscious theory testing or adopted neither of these two perspectives. This thesis addresses these gaps by undertaking an historical examination of two decisions that have been 37 fundamental to the development of the UK aviation industry and have proved controversial in balancing environmental, social and economic demands: the decision to develop Stansted as the third London airport (1953-­‐1991) and the approval for a second runway at Manchester (1991-­‐2001). The former was characterised by delays and reviews whilst the latter was the first runway approved in the UK in over twenty years and occurred much more rapidly. Details of the two cases are revealed through fresh documentary analysis and elite interviewing and then analysed through the application of the two theories. This thesis shows that policy goals unite actors into distinct coalitions who work together to achieve said goals on a terrain which is uneven and favours those coalitions whose interests align with the rhetoric of economic growth. It emerges that although conflict is framed in terms of a national need versus a local opposition, in reality these conflicts expose wider societal concerns. Whilst the role of the state is to balance a multitude of interests, with the language and implementation of government policy in favour of development public inquiries are reduced to playing the role of feasibility studies to minimise environmental damage. Privileged in shaping the direction of policy, this thesis has shown that historically, whilst the aviation industry may have lost battles, in the end it has won the war. Closing The Knowledge Gap On Climate Change Through Compliance Mechanism Under The
Kyoto Protocol
Middle
East
Technical Knowledge
Gap;
Climate
Change;
Zerrin Savaşan
University & Konya Selçuk Compliance Mechanism; Kyoto Protocol
University
This paper aims to question whether closing the knowledge gap on climate change can be ensured through compliance mechanism(CM) under the Kyoto Protocol(KP). For this purpose, it firstly presents a general overview on the CM, with its conceptual, theoretical and historical bases. Then, it surveys whether gathering information methods under the CM are adequate for closing the knowledge gap and how can be dealt with it through CM under the KP. Based on its findings, it argues that, through eliminating-­‐, at least decreasing-­‐ the weaknesses of the mechanism, improving it particularly encouraging non-­‐governmental organization(NGO) participation and strengthening transparency and publicity, and promoting coordination between different compliance mechanisms on gathering and sharing information, closing the gap can be achieved to some extent, and this achievement can form one of the steps towards better compliance and better environmental governance. A Closer Look At The Interrelationship Between Climate Mitigation And Adaptation
Katja Säwert
HafenCity University
Climate Change Adaptation; Climate
Hamburg
Change Mitigation; Interrelationships;
Spatial Planning; Climate Justice In Spatial
Planning
There is a growing demand to explore the interrelationship between climate mitigation and adaptation. Until now, there has been no published literature on empirical research on the interrelationship. My PhD is focusing on this knowledge gap. I will offer empirical findings on the topic by analyzing how planners think about potential interrelationships between climate mitigation and adaptation. As practitioners, planners have to deal with these measures in their everyday practices. Therefore, they are a suitable platform for the analysis. My methodology is based on three modules. First I will ask the planners to fill out a prepared Cross-­‐Impact-­‐
Matrix with selected mitigation and adaptation measures. This allows to create “Impact Maps” which express the “Impact Value” of how planners see the interaction. For the second module I am taking into account that 38 in planning practice the relevance for several measures varies from planner to planner. To analyze the relevance I will use selected weight related components from the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The outcome will be a “Relevance Map” which expresses the “Relevance Value”. In the third module I will combine the outcomes from the first and second module and create an “Interaction Map” with the “Interaction Value”. Based on “Interaction Value” for each measure, new planning guidelines can be given, which incorporate possible interrelationships. They can serve as a mind opener, make the implementation of measures easier and help to close the knowledge gap. First empirical findings from a pre-­‐test will be used to further discuss at the conference. Anxiety And Its Influence On Risky Decision-Making In A Climate Change (CC) Scenario
Charlotte
University of Heidelberg
Anxiety; Risk Perception; Information
Schwesinger
Search; Decision Making; Geoengineering
Since decisions in the context of CC must deal with dynamic complexity (Sterman & Sweeney, 2002), they may be concepualised as decisions under uncertainty or risky decisions. According to Johnson & Tversky (1983), estimates about risk usually occur in an affect-­‐laden context; yet, little research has so far been devoted to the role of affect in decision-­‐making (Finuncane, Alhakami, Slovic, & Johnson, 2000). My study exploratorily addressed this through various approaches: How do state and trait anxiety influence people's decision-­‐making (process) in a CC scenario? 101 participants worked on two identical, quasi-­‐realistic CC decision scenarios – before and after state anxiety had been induced. The scenarios consisted of the (combinable) alternative choices mitigation of CO2 emissions and geoengineering methods, and they were presented as a one-­‐to-­‐one interview using conversation-­‐based active information search, with participants thinking aloud (Huber, Wider, & Huber, 1997). Additionally, participants were to rate the assumed riskiness for each of the options and to repeatedly fill in the State-­‐Trait Anxiety Inventory (Spielberger, Gorsuch & Lushene, 1970). I found that more anxious participants asked more questions in the interviews, thus potentially reducing uncertainty by elaborating on the task. Also, people scoring higher on (state) anxiety took riskier decisions. Both results are in line with previous research (e.g., Schwarz & Bless, 1991; Leith & Baumeister, 1996), and might contribute to a discussion on what role anxiety could play in people's opinion formation of CC and geoengineering methods. Global Hydrology Modelling And Uncertainty: Climate Change And Hydrological Extremes
Katie Smith
University of Nottingham
Modelling; Hydrology;
Uncertainty; Global
The effects of climate change on global hydrology has been a popular topic in climate research over the past few decades. Projections of increased temperature and altered rainfall patterns have raised concerns over water security, flood risk, and the occurrence of extreme weather events. Future river discharge studies have previously been at the catchment, or regional scale, and models are rarely globally applicable. However, with rapid developments in computational abilities, large scale studies that couple Global Circulation Models (GCMs) with Global Hydrological Models (GHMs) have recently made global projections of future water availability and flood risk. But how reliable are these estimates? Whilst smaller scale modelling studies commonly test the sensitivities within a model, and the uncertainties within its outputs, global studies frequently exclude this and often apply GHMs in their original calibrations. This PhD project will take the GHM MacPDM.09 and will subject it to rigorous testing of its sensitivities to model inputs, both variable and fixed, and the uncertainties within its outputs. Three methods, which have been used to test 39 smaller scale models, will be innovatively applied to MacPDM.09: Multi-­‐Method Sensitivity Analysis, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Analysis. Once the uncertainties in the hydrological model are fully understood, the model will then be coupled with ensembles of climate projections to assess how climate change may affect global daily runoff, including extreme flows. This research will lead to more informed future hydrology projections, and will provide methodological guidance for the future testing of other global hydrological models. Designing Targeted Incentives For Low Carbon Investments In The Building Sector In The UK
Margaret Thorley
University of Cambridge
Energy Efficiency; Building Retrofits;
Behaviour Change; Built Environment;
Climate Change Mitigation
Meeting the United Kingdom’s (UK’s) carbon reduction targets [80% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050] will require transformations in multiple segments of the economy, including the building and construction sector. The built environment, through embodied energy and energy use by building occupants, significantly impacts total national GHG emissions. Technological innovations that improve energy efficiency, such as retrofits for existing building stock, have the potential to significantly contribute to carbon reduction targets. Promoting uptake of low carbon technologies such as building retrofits are influenced by incentive mechanisms for key decision-­‐makers in complex ownership and governance chains. Therefore, it is critical to ensure that programmatic incentives are aligned with the needs of relevant actors. Focusing on a city-­‐level demonstration project in Cambridge, this research seeks to identify voluntary, programmatic incentive structures that have high probability of engaging the range of actors across the public, private and third sectors necessary to implement and scale-­‐up retrofitting activities. Understanding Urban-Rural Dynamics Under A Changing Climate
Sandra Valencia
Lund University Centre for Vulnerability; Climate Change; Urban-Rural
Sustainability Studies
Linkages; Water; Resilience
It is widely agreed that the impacts of climate change (CC) will be most felt by developing countries, partly due to the reliance of their economies on natural resources. However, CC is not acting in isolation of other socio-­‐economic and environmental processes, and thus is not the only challenge faced by developing countries. Instead, developing countries must deal with simultaneous stressors. Additional stressors include water scarcity, environmental degradation, social unrest, etc. Therefore CC cannot be tackled as a stand-­‐alone issue, but rather as a sustainability challenge in complex systems faced with multiple stressors. The proposed research focuses on increasing the knowledge concerning the dynamic interactions between urban and rural areas under the hypothesis that such interactions (e.g. competing demands for natural resources, territorial planning in inter-­‐dependent areas, water management strategies, etc.) have an impact on the vulnerability of these areas, resulting at times as additional stressors. The research will focus on a case study analysis of a water supply system in a Colombian city. The aim is to investigate the linkages between the urban potable water system and the rural areas that supply the system. Besides the evident dependency of the urban water system on the water resources mainly originating beyond the city limits and under a changing climate, the research also aims to explore additional processes, such as territorial planning, animal grazing and agricultural practices that could affect the vulnerability of the water system infrastructure. This influence can be manifested, for instance, in the form of land degradation leading to erosion and landslides. Climate change adaptation and local private actors: a study case of the forestry sector in
Wallonia (Belgium)
Valentine
van Université
Libre
de Climate Change Adaptation; Adaptive
Gameren
Bruxelles
Capacity; Risk Perceptions; Private Actors;
Forestry
40 Adaptation to climate change is a multi-­‐level issue for which actions at the different policy scales are needed. Furthermore, both planned public intervention and bottom-­‐up private initiatives are needed to implement adaptation measures. Indeed the roles and responsibilities of public and private actors in this respect are complementary. Research on climate change adaptation focused on private actors is emerging but there still exists a knowledge gap in this field. Several reasons can explain this. On the one hand private actors have been more studied with regard to their role in climate change mitigation than adaptation. On the other hand, only a few businesses or individuals have already implemented adaptation measures, empirical data are thus relatively scarce. As a consequence, better understanding why and how non state actors decide to adapt is a research challenge as well as a policy issue, namely in terms of incentives to activate. In this paper, we propose to illustrate how we deal with this topic through a study case: the adaptation of local economic actors in the forestry sector in Belgium (Walloon region). As the research centres around the motivations of these actors to adapt their practices to climate change impacts, we will firstly present the theoretical and conceptual framework of the study, based on existing literature in the field. Secondly the qualitative methodology used for the field work will be discussed. Preliminary results will be introduced too. Exploring The Role Of High Emission Groups In Accelerating The Transition To A Low-Carbon
Society In UK
Xinfang Wang
University of East Anglia
Household; Consumption; Emission;
Socioeconomic; Distribution
This project brings together perspectives on emissions accounting, consumption, economics, behaviour and lifestyle to assess the role that those groups that currently have the largest footprints could have in the transition to a low carbon UK economy. Although it has been found that there is at least a factor of ten times difference between low and high-­‐impact households on total CO2 emissions (Web and Matthew, 2008), policies for addressing climate change have been universal, little attention has been paid on ‘tailoring’ policies towards the particular high impact groups within society, which may provide for a more effective, efficient and equitable delivery of a low carbon society (Brand and Preston, 2010). The high-­‐emission groups within UK are explored considering both direct energy emissions and all embedded energy in goods and services. Data are collected from a variety of household surveys for different years and are complemented by emission factors allowing for a fuller picture of the total consumption-­‐based emissions of household. Furthermore, the multi-­‐regression approach is used to understand the main drivers of household emission while the Lorenz curves are created to analyse the distribution aspects of UK household carbon footprint. Besides, how the emission-­‐related behaviour and lifestyle of the high-­‐emission groups different with others are investigated. Additionally, the socioeconomic profile of the high-­‐emission groups created in this project will further contribute to the research considering the role of high-­‐emission groups as potential ‘early adopters’ of technologies and norms, which will then aid rapid diffusion through other groups through emulation. Vulnerability To Climate Change: Beyond The Techno-economic Approach
Romain
Université
Libre
de Climate Change Adaptation; Vulnerability To
Weikmans
Bruxelles
Climate Change; Africa; Indicators
41 During the last international negotiations on climate change, large amounts of money were promised to developing countries for their adaptation to climate change (CC). A first target of this research project is to study how the receivers of these funds will be identified. Even though the notion of vulnerability (V) to CC is at the heart of the United Nations Framework Convention on CC, this Convention does not give any operational definition of countries that are « particularly vulnerable ». Our project will therefore examine this notion of V which is widely accepted as being both multiform and not easily comprehensible. To date, however, the ambiguity of this concept has not prevented the development of indicators aimed at meeting the need of formal evaluation of V. A lot of criticism of these indicators has emerged, partly because they badly capture some crucial – but less tangible – dimensions of the V. Even though V is in part determined by the technological and financial means available to a society, other social dimensions, which are explored in our research, have a crucial influence on the ability to cope with change in general and climate change in particular. Therefore the quantification of V might have contributed to the idea that adaptation is mainly a matter of economic and technological effort. This narrow vision of the problem, found both in academic and institutional literature, presupposes a direct link – that will be discussed – between low development level and high V to CC. Developing A Biomass Resource Model For The UK
Andrew Welfle
University of Manchester
Biomass; Renewable Energy; Resource;
Sustainability
This presentation is based on the research theme, methodology and initial results of my ‘PhD First Year Transfer Report’. This documents the progress in developing a ‘biomass resource model’ for the UK in the context of an increasing biomass energy industry. The crux of the research has been to produce a tool that will estimate the potential indigenous biomass resource available for the energy sector in the UK, and also determine the biomass imports potentially required to meet future energy scenarios. This research is innovative compared to existing studies as the next development steps of model will also enable the evaluation of the sustainability-­‐credentials of different biomass resource scenarios -­‐ something largely lacking from existing research. The model’s design gains scientific creditability as it has been built using a series of existing peer reviewed methodologies for assessing the biomass resource at a global level, and refocuses them for the UK. Developing the model has required highly multi-­‐disciplinary research with strong connections to the energy, land and governance focus areas of the Tyndall Centre. Acknowledging Farmers' Perspective Heterogeneity To Enhance Silvopastoral Adoption
Policies In The Tropical Forest Frontier
Aiora Zabala
University of Cambridge
Q Methodology; Decision-Making; Avoiding
Deforestation; Sustainable Farming LandUses
Aggregated small-­‐scale, intensive cattle-­‐farming is a threat in the tropical forest frontier. However, at the household and individual levels, livelihood trade-­‐offs and insufficient motivation towards practices with high environmental and economic gains in the medium term, but economic sacrifices in the short term are a common pattern hindering sustainable behaviour. In addition, the heterogeneity of perspectives existing in a group of recipients has important implications for conservation policy design and targeting, as literature increasingly emphasizes. This study disentangles different perspectives on cultivating fodder trees, and frames them within psychological theories of decision-­‐making and adoption. Q methodology is conducted in a Biosphere Reserve in Chiapas, Mexico, with 33 heads of household for which secondary data on the level of success in fodder tree cultivation is available. Farmers' views are grouped into: pragmatic, 42 pioneer and self-­‐sufficient; conservative and subsidies-­‐dependent; and environmentally conscious. None of these are clearly prone to adopting silvopastoral practices. Rather, each type shows distinct features that pull them to adoption, as well as features that hinder them from adopting or from maintaining the activity. Whereas environmentalists' motivation may be normative concerns, pioneers may adopt if the practice is believed to be novel and with potential significant gains. In contrast, the conservative may not adopt unless there is an external payment involved, or until his neighbours have adopted successfully. Arguably, a bigger emphasis on engaging potential first adopters may have a boosting effect on getting the rest to adopt, hence making a more efficient use of existing policy implementation resources. Tackling Climate Change Through The Support Of The Wind-Based Energy Storage Concept
Dimitrios
University of East Anglia
Energy Storage; Wind Energy; Cost-Benefit
Zafirakis
Analysis; Climate Change Abatement
Dimitrios Zafirakis, Giovanni Baiocchi. Georgios Daskalakis. Konstantinos Chalvatzis Although nowadays wind energy comprises an established power generation solution, the inherent limitation of intermittent energy production sets considerable barriers to its large scale integration. In this regard, to achieve greater contribution of wind energy and allow substantial contribution of the latter in tackling climate change, energy storage is recently considered as one of the main alternative and innovative solutions. Up until now however, the existing valuation framework for services provided by energy storage technologies operating in an electricity market environment discourages investment in such capital intensive systems. To this end, the idea of using wind energy surplus to operate energy storage systems is currently adopted. In this way social welfare attributes are assigned to energy storage technologies exploiting green energy amounts, with emphasis presently given on the avoidance of carbon dioxide emissions otherwise produced by conventional thermal generation systems. Valuing of these attributes is accordingly carried out on the basis of an integrated cost-­‐benefit model, used to develop appropriate support mechanisms for the promotion of energy storage systems destined to recover clean wind energy amounts. According to the results obtained, valuation of social welfare attributes concerning the concept of wind-­‐based energy storage both allows for large scale integration of wind energy and encourages investment in energy storage configurations. Delegate Email List
Name
Affiliation
Email
Aidy Halimanjaya University of East Anglia a.halimanjaya@uea.ac.uk Aiora Zabala University of Cambridge az296@cam.ac.uk Amy McDougall University of East Anglia a.mcdougall@uea.ac.uk Andrea Finegan University of East Anglia A.Finegan@uea.ac.uk Andrew Welfle University of Manchester andrew.welfle@postgrad.manchester.ac.uk Angel Hsu Yale University angel.hsu@yale.edu Asitha Jayawardena Kingston University London k1160405@kingston.ac.uk Beate Stawiarski University of East Anglia b.stawiarski@uea.ac.uk Béatrice Cointe CIRED cointe@centre-­‐cired.fr Becky Marsh marshrm@cardiff.ac.uk Blanca Rosa Garcia Navarrete Cardiff University Food Climate Research Network Newcastle University Catherine Cherry Cardiff University cherryce@cardiff.ac.uk Charlotte Hopkins University of Glasgow c.hopkins.1@research.gla.ac.uk Charlotte Schwesinger University of Heidelberg charlotte.schwesinger@gmail.com Chris Foulds University of East Anglia c.foulds@uea.ac.uk Daniel Wheelock Cardiff University wheelockd@cardiff.ac.uk Delphine Deryng University of East Anglia d.deryng@uea.ac.uk Ben Keeley 43 ben.keeley@live.co.uk b.r.garcia-­‐navarrete@newcastle.ac.uk Dimitrios Zafirakis University of East Anglia D.Zafirakis@uea.ac.uk Edward Byers Newcastle University e.a.byers@ncl.ac.uk Elvin Nyukuri Open University e.nyukuri@open.ac.uk Gareth Thomas University of Birmingham gxt056@bham.ac.uk Helen Adams University of East Anglia H.Adams1@uea.ac.uk Ilaria Gallo Lancaster University ilaria_g@hotmail.it/ ilaria.gallo@undp.org Isabella Neuweg London School of Economics i.neuweg@lse.ac.uk Jana Lemke Viadrina European University jlemke@europa-­‐uni.de Jennifer Hodbod University of East Anglia j.hodbod@uea.ac.uk Jessica Ocampos University of Cambridge jao37@cam.ac.uk John Sawdon University of East Anglia john.sawdon@gmail.com Julio Postigo University of Texas jpostigo@utexas.edu Karen Anderton University of Oxford karen.anderton@ouce.ox.ac.uk Kate Walker Cardiff University walkerkjl@cf.ac.uk Kate Young University of Oxford katherine.young@ouce.ox.ac.uk Katie Smith University of Nottingham lgxkas@nottingham.ac.uk Katja Säwert HafenCity University Hamburg katja.saewert@hcu-­‐hamburg.de Kim Coetzee University of Cape Town kim.coetzee@uct.ac.za Kristy Revell University College London kristy.revell.09@ucl.ac.uk Lauren Roffey University of East Anglia l.roffey@uea.ac.uk Lucy Baker University of East Anglia Lucy.H.Baker@uea.ac.uk Margaret Thorley University of Cambridge mvt27@cam.ac.uk Maria Sharmina University of Manchester maria.sharmina@manchester.ac.uk Marisa Camargo University of Helsinki marisa.camargo@helsinki.fi Mark Tebboth University of East Anglia m.tebboth@uea.ac.uk Markus Rau University of East Anglia m.rau@uea.ac.uk Marta Olazabal University of Cambridge md469@cam.ac.uk Martin Mahony University of East Anglia m.mahony@uea.ac.uk Martin Roders Delft University of Technology m.j.roders@tudelft.nl Mathis Hampel King's College London mathis.hampel@gmail.com Merryn Thomas Cardiff University ThomasMJ6@cardiff.ac.uk Michael Traut University of Manchester michael.traut@postgrad.manchester.ac.uk Mike Simpson Imperial College London jms109@ic.ac.uk Miranda Jones University of East Anglia miranda.c.jones@googlemail.com Moritz Heinle University of East Anglia m.heinle@uea.ac.uk Natalie Foster University of Southampton natalie.foster@soton.ac.uk Nicola Favretto University of Leeds n.favretto@see.leeds.ac.uk Pablo Salas University of Cambridge pas80@cam.ac.uk Rachel Hale University of East Anglia r.hale1@uea.ac.uk Rachel James University of Oxford rachel.james@ouce.ox.ac.uk Rachel Macrorie University of East Anglia r.macrorie@uea.ac.uk Raquel Ana Nunes University of East Anglia raquel.nunes@uea.ac.uk Rebecca Darbyshire University of Melbourne r.darbyshire@student.unimelb.edu.au Rita Yu University of East Anglia rita.yu@uea.ac.uk 44 Rob Bellamy University of East Anglia r.bellamy@uea.ac.uk Romain Weikmans Université Libre de Bruxelles romain.weikmans@hotmail.com Sabine Reinecke University of Freiburg sabine.reinecke@ifp.uni-­‐freiburg.de Salma Hegga University of Southampton ssh1g11@soton.ac.uk Sam Barrett Trinity College Dublin barretsa@tcd.ie Sam Hubble Cardiff University hubblest@cardiff.ac.uk Samir Doshi Queen's University, Canada samir.doshi@mine.queensu.ca Sandra Boegelein University of East Anglia S.Bogelein@uea.ac.uk Sandra Hernandez L.Hernandez-­‐Gamez@uea.ac.uk Sara de Wit University of East Anglia Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies University of Cologne Sarah Cooper University of Reading s.j.cooper@reading.ac.uk Sarah Jones University of Bristol s.e.jones@bristol.ac.uk Scott Kelly University of Cambridge sjk64@cam.ac.uk Sian Foch-­‐Gatrell University of East Anglia s.foch-­‐gatrell@uea.ac.uk Sílvia Cosme Technical University of Lisbon silvia.cosme@gmail.com Simon Mercer University of East Anglia s.mercer@uea.ac.uk Sophie Chollet University of East Anglia s.chollet@uea.ac.uk Stefan Ludgate Teeside University s.ludgate@tees.ac.uk Stefano Moncada University of Malta stefano.moncada@um.edu.mt Stella Nordhagen University of Cambridge Sn357@cam.ac.uk Tara Quinn University of East Anglia t.quinn@uea.ac.uk Teresa Chiang t.s.chiang@bath.ac.uk Tim Foster University of Bath Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Imperial College London Valentine van Gameren Université Libre de Bruxelles vvgamere@ulb.ac.be Xinfang Wang University of East Anglia Middle East Technical University & Konya Selçuk University integrity_wang@yahoo.cn Sandra Valencia Till Sterzel Zerrin Savaşan 45 sandra.valencia@lucsus.lu.se saradewit@gmail.com sterzel@pik-­‐potsdam.de tf110@ic.ac.uk szerrin@metu.edu.tr