CanSIA Submission re: Ontario Planning Outlook
1. Introduction
CanSIAisanationaltradeassociationthatrepresentsthesolarenergyindustrythroughoutCanada.
CanSIA’svisionforCanada’ssolarenergyindustryisforsolarelectricitytobeamainstreamenergy
sourceandanintegralpartofCanada’sdiversifiedelectricitymixby2020.CanSIAalsointendsforthe
solarelectricityindustrytobesustainable,withnodirectsubsidies,andoperatinginasupportiveand
stablepolicyandregulatoryenvironmentwithinasimilartimeframe.
CanSIAappreciatestheabilitytoprovidefeedbackontheIndependentElectricitySystemOperator’s
(IESO)forthcomingOntarioPlanningOutlook(OPO).Thissubmissioncontainsquestionsregardingthe
informationpresentedwithinthepresentationdeliveredbytheIESOattheMarch23,2016Stakeholder
AdvisoryCommitteemeeting.Thissubmissionalsocontainssuggestionsforadditionalinformationand
datapointswhichCanSIAbelieveswouldbevaluabletoincludewithintheOPO.
2. Recommendations
2.1
Regional Planning and Local Needs Identification
ThepresentationdeliveredbytheIESOattheMarch23,2016StakeholderAdvisoryCommittee(SAC)
meetingfocusesalmostentirelyontheprovinciallevel/bulktransmissionsysteminregardstosupply
adequacyanalysis.Allusionismade,however,toregionallyspecificsupplyneedsthathavearisen(and
willcontinuetoarise)incertainareasoftheprovincethataretobeaddressedthroughtheregional
planningprocess.
Insightintothelocalavoidedtransmission,distribution,andgenerationcostsindifferentareasofthe
provinceshouldbeincludedintheOntarioPlanningOutlooktobetterdefinethevaluecasefor
alternativesolutionstomeetingregionalelectricityneeds.Specifically,thiswouldprovidethestarting
pointforadiscussionofhowdistributedenergyresources(DERs)andconservationanddemand
management(CDM)canplayalargerroleinthefuturewithinregionalplanning.Ifregionalsupplyneeds
areexpectedtomaterializeduringtheeffectivetermoftheforthcomingLongTermEnergyPlan(LTEP),
boththeOPOandtheLTEPshouldspeaktohowthoseneedscanbeaddressedusingsolutionsother
thantheconstructionofadditionaltransmissionanddistributioninfrastructure.
2.2
Conservation Targets
TheOPOshouldincludeadetailedriskassessmentonconservationtargetsbeingmet.Whilethisis
identifiedasariskintheIESO’spresentation,theextentandimpactofthatriskshouldbefurther
detailed.Forexample,theOPOshouldincorporateOntarioEnergyBoardverifiedresultsofexisting
conservationprogramsandaforwardlookingassessmentoftheabilityofcurrentlyplanned(andfuture
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CanSIA Submission re: Ontario Planning Outlook
undefinedprograms)tofulfilltheforecastedenergysavings.Specifically,theriskassessmentshould
coverthe“Plannedsavingsfromfutureprograms&CodesandStandards”and“Forecastsavingsfrom
LDCs(2015-2020)”identifiedinthechartbelow.
ThisinformationcanbeusedduringtheLTEPconsultationstobettercontextualizeanddefineoneofthe
riskstosupplyadequacybutalsotoinformhowtheIESO,LDCs,MinistryofEnergy,OEBandindustry
canworktogethertoensurethattheforecastedsavingsformfutureprogramsareachieved.Behindthe-meterandvirtualnetmeteringdistributedsolargeneration(DSG)installationssupportthe
province’sConservationFirstpolicyandhelpLDCstomeetCDMtargets.Behind-the-meterDSGcan
effectivelylowertheelectricitydemandofconsumersthroughouttheday,especiallyduringpeak
periods.The2014DistributorScorecardpublishedbytheOEBshowsthatonly6of72LDCs(8%)have
mettheirNetAnnualPeakDemandSavingstarget,andonly41of72LDCs(57%)havemettheirNet
AnnualEnergySavingstarget.DSGcanbeaneffectiveoptionforLDCstomeettheirCDMtargetswhile
atthesametimealigningtheinterestsofLDCsandcustomer-drivenDSG.
DSGandnetmeteredgenerationcanhelptodriveinterestinCDMparticipationbyOntario’selectricity
consumers.Customersreceivingexcessgenerationpayments(i.e.paymentsforsurpluspowerexportto
thegrid)willbeincentivizedtoconserveandmanagetheirdemandtoincreaserevenuefromgrid
export.Throughanetmeteringprogram,themajorityoffundingforabehind-the-meterDSGproject
willberealizedfromon-siteavoidedelectricitysavings,reducingtheimpacttoalreadycommittedCDM
budgetsiftheyweremadeavailabletosupportDSGdevelopment.
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2.3
Cost of Carbon and GHG Emission Forecasts
Inthe2015ClimateChangeStrategytheMOECCidentifiedspecificallythatitwillestablishGHG
reductionsasapriorityinthenextLongTermEnergyPlanandthatitwillensureacontinuationofthe
positivetrendsintheelectricitysectoraswellascontinuedimprovementinconservation,efficiencyand
cleanenergyusetoachievedeeper,longtermGHGemissionreductions.
Uncertaintyexistsacrosstheelectricitysectorinregardstohowemissionswillchangeovertheinitial
complianceperiodoftheCapandTradesystem.Forexample,the2013LTEPforecastsmeetinga
prescribedtargetforconservationof7TWhby2020.Meetingthosetargets(ornotmeetingthem)has
implicationsforenergyproductionintheprovinceandthustheGHGprofileoftheelectricitysector.
LocalDistributionCompanies(LDCs)havealreadybegunsignalingpossibledifficultiesinmeeting
conservationtargetsusingtheusualenergyefficiencymeasuresavailabletothem.Forthisreasonsome
LDCshavefundedbehindthemeternaturalgasgenerationasamethodofconservation.Meetingthe
conservationtargetswithbehindthemeternaturalgasgenerationwillincreaseGHGemissions.Ontario
mayalsorequireadditionalrenewableresourcessuchasdistributedsolartosupplyemissionsfree
electricitytomeetanyincreaseindemandfromtheelectrificationofothereconomicsectorsandto
avoidIESOforecastedincreasestoGHGemissionsfromtheelectricitysectorasaresultofincreased
relianceonnaturalgasgenerationformeetingconservationtargetsandduringperiodsofnuclear
refurbishment.TheIESO’sfigure,below,forecastscurrentanalysisonemissionsincreasesfromthe
electricitysector.
IncludedwithintheOPOshouldbeanassessmentofcostofmeetingsupplyadequacytargetsgiven
increasingnaturalgascosts.AforecastofincreasingnaturalgascostsduetotheCapandTrade
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regulationwillbeimportantbothtounderstandtheimpactsofincreasedrelianceonnaturalgasto
meetconservationtargets,toprovidesupplyandoperabilityservicesduringtheperiodofnuclear
refurbishment,andinregardstothepossiblere-contractingofendoflifenaturalgascontractsinthe
mid-2020s.
AlsoinregardstoGHGemission,theOPOshouldincludeascenarioanalysisoftheGHGemission
impactsfromthemoreimpactfulsupplyrisksthathavebeenidentified,namely:scheduleorcost
overrunsofnuclearrefurbishment,thepotentialofPickeringGSnotoperatingto2024,andnotmeeting
conservationtargets(ormeetingthemwithbehindthemeternaturalgas).
2.4
Assumption Transparency
DuringtheMarch23,2016SACmeeting,IESOplannersidentifiedthatmanyoftheassumptionsutilized
intheiranalysiswouldbeincludedwithintheOPA(thoughtheyhavenotbeenpresentedthusfar).
Havingtheabilitytoviewthetechnicalreportandtheassumptionsthatgointotheanalysiswouldbe
veryvaluableandallowthegeneratorindustries(andotherinterestedstakeholders)toensurethatthe
IESOisusinguptodateinformationforforwardlookingassessmentsofcost,performanceand
operabilityoftheirtechnologiesratherthaninformationfromexisting(i.e.historical)facilitiesaswas
utilizedfortheLargeRenewableProcurement(LRP)whendeterminingannualcapacityfactorsand
systemvalueconstants.
3. Conclusion
TheIESOhasmadeeffortstoidentifyanumberofdifferentriskstosupplyadequacyattheprovincial
levelwithintheirinitialpresentationontheOPO.InordertoensurethatthefinalOPOincludesall
informationnecessarytoconsultwithelectricitystakeholdersthroughtheLTEPprocess,CanSIAhas
includedrecommendedthattheIESOensuretheOPO:
•
•
•
•
Includeinformationonthelocalavoidedtransmission,distribution,andgenerationcostsin
differentareasoftheprovincetobetterdefinethevaluecaseforalternativesolutionsto
meetingregionalelectricityneeds;
Includeadetailedriskassessmentonconservationtargetsbeingmetandaforwardlooking
assessmentoftheabilityofcurrentlyplanned(andfutureundefinedprograms)tofulfillthe
forecastedenergysavings;
Includeanassessmentofthecostofmeetingsupplyadequacytargetsgivenincreasingnatural
gascosts;
IncludeascenarioanalysisoftheGHGemissionimpactsfromthemoreimpactfulsupplyrisks
thathavebeenidentified,namely:scheduleorcostoverrunsofnuclearrefurbishment,the
potentialofPickeringGSnotoperatingto2024,andnotmeetingconservationtargets(or
meetingthemwithbehindthemeternaturalgas;and
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CanSIA Submission re: Ontario Planning Outlook
•
Providetheabilitytoviewthetechnicalreportandtheassumptionsthatgointotheanalysisto
allowgeneratorindustries(andotherinterestedstakeholders)toensurethattheIESOisusing
uptodateinformationforforwardlookingassessmentsofcost,performanceandoperabilityof
theirtechnologies.
WiththerisksthathavebeenidentifiedbytheIESOandthewidevarietyofimpactsthatcouldoccur
fromotherchangingmarketconditions,Ontarioneedstofullyunderstandtheseverityandlikelihoodof
risksandensurethatthereareflexibleandadaptivesolutionsavailabletomeetthem.Solarcan
contributetomeetingCDMtargets,reducestheuseofnaturalgasforpeakingpurposes,contributesto
loweringtheimpactofCapandTradeonthecostofelectricity,andiswidelysupportedbymembersof
thepublicincomparisontoothergenerationtechnologies.
ThankyouagainfortheopportunitytoprovideinputintotheOPO/LTEPProcess.
Yourssincerely,
JohnGorman
President&CEO,CanadianSolarIndustriesAssociation
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