Industries Commissionerate, Government of Gujarat E-mail :comind@gujarat.gov .in :comind@gujarat.gov.in “The Five Pillars of Prosperity : Agriculture, Manufacture, Navigation, Information Technology, Commerce” GoG-AMA Centre for International Trade PAGE: 2-3 Gujarat-Global Pharmaceutical Hub PAGE: PAGE: 4 6-7 Profile of Turkey Editor’s Note • • • • • Maximum value addition is taking place in pre-manufacturing services comprise R&D, design and testing. Post-manufacturing services capture value through branding, marketing and retailing. India should focus on high value jobs in pre-manufacturing services such as research, engineering and design by capitalising on its comparative advantage — actual or potential — given the availability of low cost technically qualified manpower. The Internet of Things is another big opportunity to tap. For example, in Gujarat, growth of technical textiles will bring additional value added revenue compared to low-value garments. Trade News Contents: Value addition to India’s Exports Many of India’s key exports such as apparel are low-margin contract manufacturing that does not make much money for manufacturers, because manufacturers don’t own the brands. A suit being retailed for $2500 in Tokyo or London gives just $250 to its makers in Tirupur. Logistics related inefficiencies further squeeze margins. Moreover, India also has to deal with manufacturing through robotics and 3D printing that are going to take away the advantage that comes from labour abundance. Vol. 12 ♦ No. 4 For Private Circulation April 2016 Insight ......................... 2-3 Country profile ............. 4 Logistics ..................... 5 Trade News ................. 6-7 WTO ........................... 8 Editor: The Indian textile industry has strength across the entire value chain from natural to man-made fiber to apparel to home furnishings. To avoid competition from lower end producers such as Bangladesh, Vietnam etc., it must move up the value chain through developing designing capabilities in western clothing, branding and investment in market research. One successful role model is Airbus Industries’ annual procurement of high value items from India. Over 6,000 people at more than 45 suppliers, both public and private, are directly engaged in providing Engineering & IT Services, Aero-structures, Detail parts & Systems, Materials and Cabins to the Group for several of its leading platforms including A380, A350 XWB, A320 Family, A330, C295W, A400M, Eurofighter, Tiger and NH90. From current $500mn., by 2020, the export will rise to $2 billion. Value addition in Indian farm exports will come from greater R&D in Suhayl Abidi manufactured food rather than exporting commodities which are the present case today. Turning out highly educated workforce calls for overhauling of the education system which is focused on rote learning and scoring high marks in exams, and not on questioning and critical thinking — prerequisites for innovation. Further, the government should focus its energy on five or six strategic sectors that have strong backward and forward linkages with other sectors. These sectors are automobile, defence, housing and infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and agro-processing and retail. Write to us Please write to us at ama@amaindia.org for feedback, suggestions, comments etc. This will help us in tailoring our offering to meet your knowledge needs in international trade. April 2016 ♦ Vol. 12 ♦ No. 4 ♦ 1 INSIGHT 2 industry features more than 50 biotechnology companies (14 per cent of India’s) and 66 support organisations The thrust areas of the biotech industry in the State include healthcare, pharmaceuticals, agriculture biotechnology, industrial enzymes. bioinformatics, contract research, marine and environmental biotechnology. Gujarat-Global Pharmaceutical Hub Gujarat, an established manufacturing base - for bulk drugs and formulations, is poised to capture global opportunities to become a Global Pharmaceuticals Hub. It plays host to major players including India’s second oldest drug-maker Alembic, Cadila Healthcare Ltd (ZydusCadila), Cadila Pharmaceuticals Ltd (CIL), Intas and Torrent Pharmaceuticals. Sun Pharma and ZydusCadila have a global presence too. Some highlights: Turnover of Gujarat Pharmaceutical industry was worth USD 7.8 billion in 2013-14. • Presence of more than 50 Biotechnology companies and 66 support organizations Gujarat now has 3,637 licensed units engaged in this industry. Of these, nearly 800 are active in direct manufacturing of drugs. Only 20 per cent of these are medium or major manufacturers while 80 per cent are small-scale units. These include 384 units approved by the World Health Organisation’s Good Manufacturing Practice certification (WHO-GMP), and 29 units approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA). It is also leading in research & development and various SMEs, research organisations and academic institutions have filed nearly 1,000 patents over the last five years. • 5,585 manufacturing licenses; Home to - 40% of CRO in the country • 40% of machinery for Pharma sector manufactured by Gujarat • Largest Manufacturer of I.V. sets in India; Only manufacturer of Balsum • 70% of cardiac stents & 50% of intraocular lenses manufactured in Gujarat • Only manufacturer of a digestive enzyme, Pink Papain, in the world • 58% of orthopaedic implants manufactured in Gujarat • Only manufacturer of ranitidine hydrochloride in the country • 40% of India’s CRAMS companies • Gujarat contributes 40% to India’s total pharmaceutical production • Pharma exports from Gujarat in 2013 stood at USD 2.83 billion (28% of India’s pharma export) • Pharma sector provides employment to around 75,000 people Gujarat is an established manufacturing base for bulk drugs and formulations. It manufactures and exports different dosage forms including generic drugs, intricate vaccines, r-DNA products, cytotoxic drugs, external preparations, sex hormone drugs, small and large volume parenteral, Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients, hi-tech cardiac stents, bio-pharma products etc. • Annual turnover of the Biotechnology sector is USD 200 million In recent decades, biotechnology has also emerged in a big way. The landscape of Gujarat’s biotech 2 ♦ Vol. 12 ♦ No. 4 ♦ April 2016 The pharmaceutical industry is concentrated in four clusters of Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Ankleshwar and Bhavnagar. The State has six pharmaceutical Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and as many as 90 pharmacy colleges. During the last decade, nearly 300 pharma companies of Gujarat either migrated to or set up units in incentiveproviding States such as Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Himachal Pradesh. However, with the 10-year tax holiday period coming to an end, many of these are returning to Gujarat. The third largest in volume and tenth largest in terms of value, the Indian pharmaceutical market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.9 percent to reach $55 billion by 2020. The US is the apex destination for Indian pharma exports followed by the United Kingdom. US accounts for about 25 percent of India’s pharma exports.Exporting drug intermediates, active pharmaceutical ingredients, finished dosage formulation and bio-pharmaceuticals to more than 200 countries, Indian pharmaceutical industries are generating large chunks of revenue from exports. Latin America is becoming a rising destination of pharma products and in FY2015, crossed $1 billion in revenue with Brazil as the largest market. The good news is that there is scope for India to increase exports even further. The Latin American pharma market— estimated to be around $80 billion today—is expected to touch $100 billion over the next five years. The governments of the region (majority of them centre-left) are promoting generic medicines to cut the cost of healthcare in their budgets as well as for the consumers, and are spending Contd. on next page INSIGHT 3 Contd. from previous page more on healthcare as part of their inclusive development agenda. However, India’s export of generics to Mexico, Chile and Peru will face challenges when these three countries ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which is said to be more MNC-friendly with stricter patent protection. As GDP growth rises in Africa, it too will continue to be an important fast growing destination.However, Gujarat’s pharma exports to African countries has declined by 40% in past six months. The state exports drugs worth Rs. 8,000 crore annually to Africa, largely due to currency fluctuations. To explore further opportunities of growth, the Indian pharmaceutical industry players, particularly the large ones have set up their subsidiary companies, regional offices or taken over local companies in other geographies and many have even set up their manufacturing plants in developed nations too. All these activities have been continuing since the last 10 years particularly which have made the Indian pharmaceutical industry command a strong global presence. Global Drug Market 2012-13 2016-17 %Growth Global pharma market (in $ bn) 962 1200 24.7% Global generic market (in $ bn) 274 432 57.7% Global generic market (in $ bn) 28.5% 36% 2012-13 2014-15 %Growth Indian pharma generic drug exports (in $ bn) 15 25 66.7% A look at the generic drug market scenario of the world, as above table shows, as to how the same is acting as a key driver of the global pharmaceutical market. The generic drug market is expected to grow at nearly at 60 percent by the year 20162017 and contribute nearly 36 percent of the total market in the year 20162017. The percentage contribution of the generic pharmaceutical market to the world is expected to increase from 28.5 percent in 2012-2013 to 36 percent in 2016-2017. Indian pharmaceutical export medicines contribute to nearly 5 percent of the total world’s consumption of generic drug medicines in the current scenario. Indian pharmaceutical industry has been eyed as the key contributor in terms of export growth to the sector since 2008 – with a CAGR of 13 percent during the period of 2008-2013. Quality issues have cast its shadow on pharmaceutical exports in recent years with USFDA coming down heavily on many plants including that of Cadila. Companies have to realise that they must maintain their quality to the manufacturing standards of major countries such as US, Japan etc. if it wants to continue its dream run. In a move that will further inflate prices of drugs in the United States, the U.S. government has made it mandatory for Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) to be manufactured locally. At present, nearly 80 per cent of drug raw material requirement is met by India or China.The decision has already sent Indian pharmaceutical exporters into a tizzy, as it will significantly impact Indian drug exports. Before the new norms came into effect, U.S.based companies were allowed to procure APIs from countries like India and China, make the fixed formulations (final product) in the U.S. and sell the drugs to the U.S. government. The Government of Gujarat has provided encouragement to the pharmaceutical industry through several policy decisions and initiatives – a scheme for assistance to innovative projects; support to R&D institutes; promotion of generic drugs by giving them preference in government purchases; incentives to encourage R&D in the sector in terms of various tax benefits; establishment of Gujarat Genomics Initiative, Genetic Diagnostic centres and Gene Banks; establishment of Centre of Excellence for Clinical Research and various sectors of biotechnology etc. The central government is also considering setting up an exclusive tech park for medical devices in Gujarat.According to the latest reports, GST, when implemented, will free the decisions on warehousing and distribution from tax considerations. In future it would be based entirely upon operational and logistics efficiency. Moreover, with the unveiling of Pharma Vision 2020 by the Government of India, investments in the sector are likely to grow as it will help boost foreign direct investments. Some of the new developments in Gujarat pharmaceutical industry are:Cadila Healthcare Ltd announced the launch of a biosimilar for Adalimumab - for rheumatoid. Intas is the first global company to launch a biosimilar version of Lucentis, the world’s largest selling drug for treatment of degenerative eye condition called Razumab. GoG-AMA Centre for International Trade Diploma programme on SHIPPING AND LOGISTICS 5 days 9.30 a.m. to 5.00 p.m. Saturdays & Sundays Starting on Saturday, May 14-15, May 21-22 and May 28, 2016 (BATCH-7) For Registration, Please Contact: Ahmedabad Management Association Phone: 079-26308601 to 06 E-mail: ama@amaindia.org April 2016 ♦ Vol. 12 ♦ No. 4 ♦ 3 COUNTRY PROFILE 4 Profile of Turkey in West Asia, and is among the fifteen most promising investors for 2014-2016. However, number of greenfield projects fell to 108 from 149. Focus areas for investment are agriculture & food, automotive, chemicals, electronics, pharmaceuticals, alternative/renewable energy & infrastructure. Highlights: Located at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East, Turkey is a regional commercial hub and an ideal location for promoting economic growth, especially in areas of trade, finance and foreign investments. Turkey is one of the largest upper middle-income countries. With a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $ 799.54 billion, Turkey is the 17th largest economy in the world. In less than a decade, per capita income in the country has nearly tripled and now exceeds $10, 500. Turkey is a member of the OECD and the G20. Turkey’s strategic location allows investors to access a potential market of 1.5 billion people, a combined GDP of USD 26 trillion and foreign trade of USD 8 trillion. GDP growth is projected to increase to above 4% in 2017, as political uncertainties are assumed to fade, employment continues to rise, and the exchange rate depreciation and the gradual strengthening of global markets support export growth. Turkey’s inflation rate will decline to 7.5% by the end of 2016, from 8.8% in 2015. FDI amounted to USD 12.5 billion in 2014, an increase on 2013.According to the UNCTAD 2014 World Investment Report, Turkey has become the largest recipient of FDI 4 ♦ Vol. 12 ♦ No. 4 ♦ April 2016 • • • · • • • • • • • • Turkey’s exports are expected to grow 13.9% annually to US$ 295 bn in 2017, making Turkey the 29th largest exporter worldwide. Similarly, import demand will grow with an average of 9.1% per year to US$ 406 bn in 2017, meaning that Turkey will take the 21st position on the global list of largest importers. By 2017, Turkey willmainly import fuels, ores You may also see DVD of 17th largest economy in the world Turkey Per capita income tripled in last decade GDP grows four times in the last decade Situated at crossroad of Asia, Africa, Western Europe. Central & Eastern Europe An important energy terminal and corridor in Europe connecting the East and the West Customs Union with the EU since 1996 and Free Trade available at Agreements (FTA) with 20 countries AMA Media Outlet Largest youth population compared with the EU (Eurostat) Half the population under the age of 30.7 (2014, TurkStat) Easy access to 1.5 billion customers in Europe, Eurasia, the Middle East and North Africa Access to multiple markets worth USD 25 trillion of GDP Corporate Income Tax reduced from 33% to 20 % Currently ranks 17 in size among all economies in the world, is aiming to improve its position to 10 by 2023. In 2014, Turkey accounted for 0.8 percent of global exports, and 1.3 percent of global imports. Underlined by rise in both exports and imports, Turkey’s total trade (exports + imports) increased more than two-fold, from US$ 190.3 billion in 2005, to reach US$ 399.9 billion in 2014. Turkish exports are well diversified, ranging from natural resources and low value-added products such as metals, precious stones, energy, apparel, and food stuffs, to higher value goods including vehicles and machinery. In 2014, Turkey’s export basket comprised motor vehicles, machinery, iron and steel, electrical goods and gold. Because of its own economic growth and that of its main trading partners, & metals and industrial machinery, which together account for 41% of total imports of Turkey. Similarly, Turkey’s exports will mainly consist of textiles (including fibers, yarn and products), ores & metals and road vehicles & transport equipment. India’s bilateral trade with Turkey has increased significantly by more than five-fold in the last decade, with a total trade of US$ 7.5 billion in 2014. While India’s exports to Turkey amounted to US$ 6.9 billion in 2014, accounting for 2.8 percent of Turkey’s global imports, India’s imports from Turkey have also risen, from US$ 219.9 million in 2005 to US$ 586.7 million in 2014, depicting close to a three-fold increase. The potential Contd. on next page LOGISTICS 5 g Sri Lanka Ports Authority keen to facilitate Myanmar transhipments through Colombo Port Sri Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA) reportedly plans to grant a 10 per cent discount on transhipment handling charges of vessels carrying shipments to Myanmar through Colombo port.The decision aims at attracting the fast growing transhipment volumes from Eastern India and Bangladesh to Colombo port, reports said. SLPA said that the transhipment volumes from East Indian and Bangladesh ports have been increasing, though Singapore still claims the biggest portion. Transhipment of Myanmar cargo through Colombo port has seen a sharp rise in recent years, according to reports. SLPA said a feeder service between Colombo port and Myanmar’s Yangon port was commenced recently to facilitate trade between the two countries, a release said. g Absence of FSSAI laboratories at Indian ports hampering trade: BRIEF The absence of Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) laboratories at Indian ports is one of the major hurdles that is hampering trade. It not only delays the entry and exit of products but also leads to increased logistic costs.Apart from it, frequent breakdowns in the Custom Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) systems and shortage of round-theclock functioning container freight stations were among the key factors hampering the growth of the Indian ports. These were some of the highlights of a comparison study of select ports in India which was released by the Bureau of Research on Industry and Economic Fundamentals (BRIEF), an economic research organisation. g 2. An increasing focus on quality and product sensitivity. 3. Regulation is on the rise. 4. Market pressures drive demand for supply chain efficiency. 5. Manufacturers are outsourcing more processes to 3PLs. 6. Cold chain is experiencing some mode shifting. 7. Sustainability initiatives are driving investment. 8. Packaging is evolving to meet new needs. The Big Chill: 10 Trends in Cold Chain Logistics 9. Technology investment remains critical. The heat is on food and pharma companies to keep refrigerated freight frosty. 10.Customer habits persist as the cold chain’s weakest link. With its capital-intensive equipment, strict temperature requirements, and energy dependence, the cold chain has always been a demanding logistics segment. Now the sector is grappling with additional challenges—from increases in the sensitivity, quality standards, and volume of many of its goods, to continually mounting regulations. Here are 10 trends impacting the cold chain, and some strategies manufacturers and logistics service providers use to adapt and thrive. http://www.inboundlogistics.com/ cms/article/the-big-chill-10-trends-incold-chain-logistics/ 1. Cold chains are becoming more global. Complete article can be viewed at: Contd. on previous page items for India’s exports to Turkey identified broadly include, inter alia, mineral fuels and distillation products; machinery and instruments; electrical and electronic equipment; iron and steel; vehicles other than railway, tramway; plastics and articles; pearls and precious stones; pharmaceutical products; rubber and articles; cereals. Among services industry, IT and business services hold particular interest to Indian companies. Your gateway to knowledge… GoG-AMA LIBRARY CORNER ON-LINE DATABASES Members are welcome to use these databases KOMPASS: Kompass is a business to business import and export directory that enables you to gather information about other companies and promote your company in the global marketplace. It is a business to business directory which has 2.3M companies in 70 countries. Trade Portals of India: It provides trade information, country information and trade leads. For details please contact AMA Library April 2016 ♦ Vol. 12 ♦ No. 4 ♦ 5 TRADE NEWS 6 g India’s exports contract for 15th month on tepid demand: During the April-February period, exports contracted 16.7% to $238.4 billion while imports shrank 14.7% to $351.8 billion, leading to a trade deficit of $113.4 billion. The trade deficit narrowed further from its previous month’s low, data released by the commerce ministry highlighted. Exports shrank 5.66% in February and imports contracted 5.03%, leaving a trade deficit of $6.5 billion. in currency. The imposition of minimum import price resulting in increase in steel prices by 15% has further blunted the competitive edge of Indian engineering sector. While engineering exports have declined by about 16% in first 11 months of the current fiscal, auto & auto components, cycle & cycle parts, hand tools, industrial & electrical machineries are the worst sufferer. g Shipments of 14 out of the 30 top export items grew in February, against 13 in the previous month. Among the major items, export of gems and jewellery (11.2%), pharmaceuticals (8.8%) and chemicals (4.5%) increased, while export of engineering goods (-11.2%), readymade garments (-0.72%) and petroleum products (-28.3%) fell. g g Good news at last for Indian exporters: Upswing in US economy bodes well: The US economy has grown 1.4% between October and December 2015 - faster than the estimated 1%. It grew at 2.4% over the entirety of 2015, which is good news for the world economy. The significance-Indian exports have been declining for the last 15 months in a row but a growth in the US economy means demand for Indianmade goods will increase again. The US share in India’s exports has increased from 13.67% in 2014-15 to 15.41% in April to December 2015. Minimum import price hurting exports and MSME units in manufacturing: FIEO : Mr S C Ralhan, President, FIEO said that exporters are already working on low margins and facing cut-throat competition besides huge volatility 6 ♦ Vol. 12 ♦ No. 4 ♦ April 2016 g g g g US hikes anti-dumping duty on Indian shrimps, exports may fall: The preliminary average duty has been increased to 4.89% in the 10th annual review of dumping duties, compared to 2.96% in the ninth review. The US government has raised the anti-dumping duty on import of frozen shrimps from India, and the exporters apprehend drop in exports.The preliminary average duty has been increased to 4.89 per cent in 10th annual review of dumping duties, compared to 2.96 per cent in ninth review which covered February 1, 2013 , through January 31, 2014 . Most Indian sectors maintaining market share on exports: Rita Teaotia: Indian industries have managed to maintain and increase their market share in most of the sectors despite countries all over the world experiencing fall in exports, Union Commerce Secretary Rita Teaotia said today.”... it is not just India that has seen fall in exports, China last month reported 25 per cent fall in exports. Europe, US, (in) all countries the demand has contracted, this is the situation,” Teaotia told the reporters. She said sectors like pharmaceutical gems and jewellery have been good news for the country in exports. Pharma sector has continued to remain robust and to increase its market share across the globe, textile sector and garments export in some markets continued to remain robust, she said, adding that gems and jewellery has certainly “held its own.” India’s exports dip 5.66% to $20.73 billion in February: India’s exports fell 5.66 percent to USD 20.73 billion in February. For the same month, imports also declined 5.03 percent to USD 27.28 billion. Exporters risk being blacklisted when new EU rule kicks in: Indian exporters enjoying preferential access into the EU market through the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) scheme face a tough technical challenge.From next year, they may have to selfcertify the origin of their goods, instead of accredited agencies, in order to avail the benefits under the scheme. This could prove to be a complicated process and might also lead to black-listing of firms if errors creep in. Merchant exporters to benefit from interest subvention scheme: Merchant exporters in sectors such as carpets, handicrafts and certain farm produce, where producers do not export on their own, are likely to be allowed to avail of the interest subvention scheme. Engineering exports except for the last three months have performed very well, she said. g Gems, jewellery exports dip 14.5%: Gems and jewellery exports declined 14.5 per cent to $ 25.95 billion during the first 10 months of the current fiscal due to slowdown in global demand.In the April-January period of last fiscal, the exports stood at $30.35 billion, according to the data from Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council. Besides global slowdown, the rejection of Contd. on next page TRADE NEWS 7 account for 46 per cent of the country’s merchandise exports. The share of the top five — including the next three best-performing States: Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh — is over 69 per cent of India’s entire export earnings, the study said. This finding is based on the analysis of data between 200708 and 2014-15, Assocham said. Contd. from PREVIOUS page consignments is one of the reasons for dip in the value of exports. g g Rupee devaluation not the right tool to boost exports: Raghuram Rajan: While India’s exports of goods and services have slowed significantly over the last couple of years in line with the emerging market trend following a slowdown in global demand, RBI governor Raghuram Rajan dismissed the idea that devaluation of the currency would be the right tool to push it. He instead advocated on the need to improve productivity to achieve the objective of remaining competitive in the market and push export growth. g Special Export-processing Zones (SEZs) have played an important role in promoting exports from the betteroff States. “For instance, Gujarat has been highly successful in tapping the potential of SEZs within its jurisdiction. g Budget 2016: Government to take measures to support export sector says Arun Jaitley: The government will give more support to exporters in a move toboost falling overseas shipments.” The duty drawback scheme has been widened and deepened to include more products and countries. The government will continue to take measures to support the export sector,” Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said in the Budget for 2016-17. GUJARAT TRADE NEWS g Maharashtra, Gujarat corner 46% of India’s exports: study: A study by industry lobby ASSOCHAM has said Gujarat and Maharashtra Now, growers plan to increase export of mangoes to the US: US market fetches an exporter four times the price.Mango growers in the country are planning to increase the volume of export of their produce to the United States this year. Last year, India exported 271 metric tonnes of mangoes to the US. Officials hope the figure will go up to 400 tonnes this year. The US market would fetch an exporter four times the price than to any other country. Last year, the price fetched per tonne of exports was Rs 70,360. In the US, it was Rs 2.55 lakh. It is the fear of maintaining standards that is keeping Indians away from this market. Varieties like Alphonso are too sweet for the palate of Americans. It is Kesar that sells in those markets. A single Kesar fetches close to a dollar. However the packing, quality maintenance and paper work involved puts off most traders from approaching the US market.” The minister proposed to amend the Customs Act to provide for deferred payment of customs duties for importers and exporters with proven track record and to increase the limitation period from one year to two year in cases not involving fraud, suppression off acts and wilful mis-statement. The government also plans to extend the facility of direct port delivery to more importers. this month.The zone is close to India’s number one traffic handling major port of Kandla and the country’s biggest non-major port Mundra of the Adani group which also holds distinction of being the first Indian port-the govt or non govtto cross coveted handling mark of 100 million ton. g Kandla SEZ shows no let- up in exports when all others are down: The other SEZs in the country are showing downward export trend while KASEZ continues to be a live, exporting zone ,likely to touch all-time high exports figure worth Rs.4000 crores at the end of this fiscal of 2015-16 at the end of Dairy segment gets Russia exports boost : India’s efforts to boost sagging farm exports has got a shot in the arm as Russia has agreed to drop a stringent condition that was obstructing Indian supplies of dairy products to that country, sources said. Once formalities are completed, dairy majors like Amul and Mother Dairy will be able to take advantage of strong demand in a potentially big market. An import protocol is expected to be signed soon with Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance, which will pave the way for Indian dairy product supplies to that country, the sources said.Once dairy majors are able to export and subsequently strengthen their position there, such exports will add $150-200 million in the first year itself. GoG-AMA Centre for International Trade USEFUL TRAINING PROGRAMMES • How to Locate & Retain an Overseas Buyer Saturday, April 16 • 9.30 a.m. to 1.00 p.m. • How to Calculate Export Price Saturday, April 16 • 2.00 p.m. to 5.00 p.m. • Certificate Programme on Exports and Imports Monday to Saturday, April 25 to May 26 8.00 to 10.00 a.m • Import Documentation and Procedures Thursday, April 28 • 9.30 a.m. to 5.00 p.m. For Registration, Please Contact: Ahmedabad Management Association Phone: 079-26308601 to 06 E-mail: ama@amaindia.org April 2016 ♦ Vol. 12 ♦ No. 4 ♦ 7 WTO is likely to experience a trade surplus with countries like Vietnam, Mexico, Peru and Chile, if it joins the group. Hence, the cost of participating in the TPP is much higher than not participating in the group. 8 g Trans-Pacific trade deal puts India in a spot: With the signing of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, one of the biggest and most significant trade deals in recent times, there is widespread speculation on how the TPP will affect India. The majority view is that this deal would adversely affect India’s trade and welfare.Experts say it would be increasingly difficult for India to export to the majority TPP partners even if it becomes a part of RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership). Most significantly, the TPP may isolate India from being a significant export partner with the US, with whom it enjoys a preferential access. India’s total trade with TPP countries has increased over time, reaching $152 billion in 2014, with $78 billion exports and around $74 billion imports, making a trade surplus with these countries.But the trade diversion during the postTPP situation would adversely affect India’s exports to these countries by an estimated $190 million annually. In the US market, textile products would incur the highest market loss for the Indian exporter, by an estimated $56 million annually, followed by organic chemicals ($5.5 million), nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical products ($5 million). On the contrary, if it joins the group, India’s exports would rise by around $5.3 billion annually as against the rise in import by $10.4 billion leaving a net deficit in balance of trade of $5.1 billion. India will experience the highest trade deficit with the Japan followed by Australia, Singapore and Malaysia.On the other hand, India 8 ♦ Vol. 12 ♦ No. 4 ♦ April 2016 Yet India not becoming a party to the agreement is a right choice at this stage. Currently, India has signed or is in the process of signing a number of bilateral and regional Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) including the Bay of Bengal Initiative for MultiSectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), South Asian FTA (SAFTA), Indo Asean FTA, etc. Whether these FTAs will result in gains to the country or not is still an issue for discussion. At present, India enjoys FTAs with only three countries amongst the present TPP signatories. g g India-Mercosur PTA expansion on anvil: Ahead of Uruguayan President Tabare Vazquez’s visit in the second quarter, India will be soon undertaking negotiations to discuss the possibility of expanding an agreement on tariffs with South American bloc Mercosur countries to boost trade and services. The expansion of the agreement will be of strategic importance to boost trade relations between the two countries and the trade volume target set at $30 billion in 2030. RCEP trade deal: Why does it matter: Negotiations on a mega trade deal — the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership of Asia and the Pacific (RCEP) — began this month. This proposed trade pact, which aims at bringing the ten member states of the ASEAN and its six free-trade agreement partners, including the five biggest economies of the region — Australia, China, India, Japan and South Korea — is crucial from India’s point of view. The negotiations, if successful, will not only help India to protect its export interests but will also strengthen its strategic and economic status in the region. With the recent signing of the Trans Pacific Partnership — another comprehensive regional trade deal among 12 advanced economies in the Pacific Rim region — from which India was sidelined, has become more important to speed up the RCEP negotiation. The TPP deal gives its member states dutyfree access to each other, thus making imports from non-member countries — like India and China — uncompetitive. According to an estimate, India will lose as much as $50 billion of current exports to these countries, with sectors like pharmaceuticals, textiles and chemicals likely to suffer the most. In this scenario, wrapping up the RCEP deal, with its potential to create a $22.7 trillion market, can certainly help reduce the potential negative impacts of the TPP deal. In addition, the proposed pact, if implemented, will not only complement our existing trade agreements with ASEAN and some RCEP states, but it will also help India to harmonize our trade and investment regimes gradually with those of other countries of the group. This could have a positive impact on Indian economy, attracting more FDI and opening up greater opportunities for Indian companies to explore. The pact also has potential to create a winwin situation, by pushing, on the one hand, integration of the India economy into a more sophisticated manufacturing network of the region and, on the other hand, adding India’s service prowess to the manufacturing muscle of its partners. Published by GoG-AMA Centre for International Trade, AHMEDABAD MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION, Core-AMA Management House, Torrent-AMA Management Centre, ATIRA Campus, Dr Vikram Sarabhai Marg, Ahmedabad 380015 Phone: 26308601 • Fax: 26305692 • Email: ama@amaindia.org • Website: www.amaindia.org, www.gogama.org