Rob Wolaver, P.E.
Senior Manager, Energy Resources
1
Topics
 Performance Review
 Integration of Intermittent Resources
 Not all renewable is intermittent
 Hydro, Biomass, Geothermal
 Measuring / Estimating the Costs
 Looking to the future
2
Cimarron and Kit Carson Performance
 2011Operating Statistics
Total Generation Plant Rating
(MWH)
(MW)
KC
186,190
51
Cimarron
67,955
30.2
CF
41.7%
25.7%
 Very Few Operational Problems
 Cimarron


Transformers
Low Temperature Operation
 Kit Carson

Forecasting
3
Monthly Energy Production
(MWH)
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
Cimarron
10,000
Kit Carson
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
4
January 27, 2012
(MW output vs. Hour of Day)
60
KC
Cimmarron
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
0
1
1
1
2
1
3
1
4
1
5
1
6
1
7
1
8
1
9
2
0
2
1
2
2
2
3
5
January 28, 2012
60
KC
Cimmarron
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
0
1
1
1
2
1
3
1
4
1
5
1
6
1
7
1
8
1
9
2
0
2
1
2
2
2
3
6
January 31, 2012
60
KC
Cimmarron
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
0
1
1
1
2
1
3
1
4
1
5
1
6
1
7
1
8
1
9
2
0
2
1
2
2
2
3
7
January 31, 2012 - Cimarron
30
25
Ramp Rate > 1
MW per Minute
20
15
10
5
0
7
8
9
1
0
1
1
1
2
1
3
1
4
1
5
1
6
1
7
8
2011 Cimarron Data (Weekly Average)
1
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
2
3
4
5
Month
6
7
8
9
10
11
0
3
6
15
129
18
21
24
27
30
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Hour
0-3
3-6
6-9
9-12
12-15
15-18
18-21
21-24
24-27
27-30
9
2011 Cimarron Data (Weekly Average)
1
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
SYSTEM PEAK
2
3
4
5
Month
6
7
8
9
10
11
0
3
6
15
129
18
21
24
27
30
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Hour
0-3
3-6
6-9
9-12
12-15
15-18
18-21
21-24
24-27
27-30
10
2011 Kit Carson Generation (Month Average)
1
2
3
4
6
7
Month
5
8
9
10
11
0
105
15
25
20
30
35
45
40
50
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Hour
0-5
5-10
10-15
15-20
20-25
25-30
30-35
35-40
40-45
45-50
11
Integration Cost
 What does industry experience tell us?
 Integration of small amounts of intermittent,
renewable generation is easy and inexpensive.
 Geographic diversity can help
 Adequate transmission is key
 AWEA: Wind Integration Cost is between
$ 0 / MWH and $5 per MWH
 As you add more intermittent generation, the
integration cost increase is non-linear.
12
Non-Linear Integration Cost Example
$15.00
$10.00
$/MWH
$5.00
$0.00
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
% Intermittent Energy
Cimarron + KC = 254,245 MWH
All Gen + PP = 20,109,387 MWH
Intermittent % = 1.26%
13
Renewable Scale – Jan 30, 2012
MW
2000
1800
1600
TS Load
1400
Cimmarron
1200
KC
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Hour of Day
14
Power Grid Integration Challenge
Supply = Demand
Generation = Load
No Storage
Instantaneous Balance
15
Variable Generation
Integration Cost Components
 Fleet Dispatch Impacts
 Increased Level of Operating Reserves
 Startup / Shutdown Cycling
 Ramping / Wear and Tear
 Efficiency / Emissions
 Loss of Capacity to Regulation
 Curtailment Payments
16
Tri-State Integration Cost
 Western Area Power Administration
Transmission Tariff
 “Regulation and Frequency Response Service”

$204 k per year related to Kit Carson
 Western Area Power Administration and PNM
Transmission Tariffs
 “Energy Imbalance Service”

$86 k per year related to Kit Carson and Cimarron
 Increased Operating Reserve Margins
 $125 k per year associated with Cimarron
17
Estimated Current Tri-State Integration
Cost for Cimarron and Kit Carson
 Total Cost = Approximately $415,000
 2011 KC + Cimarron Generation = 254,245 MWH
 Total Intermittent Integration Cost =$1.63 / MWH
18
What’s Next?
19
RPS Compliance
20
Tri-State Strategies
 Network Transmission Customer Status
 Use the existing generation fleet for regulation
 Tri-State currently “block-loads” generation
 Sell regulation service to control areas
 Short-Interval Scheduling
 Investigate Organized Market Impacts
 Measure, monitor, analyze
21
Cost Shifting
 FERC Order to Bonneville Power Authority
 Efficient Dispatch Toolkit / Organized Markets
 Transmission Cost Allocation
22
Renewable Cost Trends
 PSCO wind PPA: $27.50/MWH with escalation
 Three primary factors causing price collapse
 Turbine Efficiency / > 50% Capacity Factor
 Cost of Borrowing
 Supply and Demand
 Production Tax Credit expires 12/31/2012
 $22 / MWH
23
24
Questions?
25