The Use of a Seasonal Fire Early Warning Tool
for Managing Peat Fires in Indonesia
JOYCE WONG, QUINN MARSHALL, ALEXA JAY, AND RIZALDI BOER
INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY,
BOGOR AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY
Pacific l Disaster Risk Reduction, Agriculture
INTRODUCTION
The effects of uncontrolled fire in the peatlands of Indonesia are
numerous and significant at multiple scales. During periods of
heightened risk driven by climate variability, fire can cause economic
losses for a wide range of sectors, including agriculture, tourism, and
forestry, while the associated smoke haze disrupts transportation,
pollutes watersheds, reduces biodiversity, and threatens the
respiratory health of local communities and the broader Southeast
Asian region (Government of Indonesia, 2007). Peat soil, formed by
the partial decay of organic matter saturated with water, is carbon-rich,
and its burning has serious implications for global climate change.
Peatlands store twice as much carbon as the world’s forest biomass,
and Indonesia’s peatlands in Kalimantan and Sumatra—which
represent over half of global tropical peatlands—account for 42,000
megatons of carbon alone (Hoojier et al., 2010). During the 1997-98
El Niño event, uncontrolled fire in Indonesia’s peatlands released an
estimated 13-40% of all global carbon emissions (Page et al., 2002).
The Seasonal Fire Early Warning Tool was developed to enhance fire
risk management in the peatlands of Central Kalimantan province,
Indonesia. The tool was produced from 2006-08 by the collaborative
efforts of researchers at Columbia University’s International Research
Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), researchers at the Bogor
Agricultural University (IPB), CARE Indonesia, and officials and staff
of the Central Kalimantan government. Ongoing improvements to
the tool are currently supported by a partnership between IPB and
Columbia University. In its current form, the tool forecasts the level of
fire activity likely to occur in Central Kalimantan province one to two
months in advance.
Funded by USAID Indonesia, IRI and IPB aim to identify opportunities
and resources that enable informed and coordinated decision making
and program implementation among district government agencies.
The Fire Early Warning Tool is being refined for district-level analysis
in Kapuas District, Central Kalimantan, which is a fire-risk area due to
both inter-annual climate variability and longer-term land use change
in its extensive peat swamps. This kind of district-level tool will enable
better preparation in advance of high-risk fire seasons, reducing costs
and mitigating negative impacts on human and natural systems. Using
seasonal predications, government actors will also be able to tailor fire
policies to specific levels of risk, better focus fire readiness, patrolling,
and awareness-building activities, and work with local communities to
reduce the use of fire during high-risk years.
SOCIOECONOMIC BACKGROUND
The majority of people in the province of Central Kalimantan depend on
agriculture and agro-forestry to support their livelihoods (Government
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of Indonesia, 2010). For sedentary and “slash and burn” farmers, and
for palm oil plantations, fire is the most efficient and affordable method
of land clearing for shifting cultivation. In addition to allowing farmers
to clear fast-growing, dense vegetation at a low cost, burning returns
nutrients to the soil and helps eliminate rats and other pests (Kinseng,
2008). However, due to the large expanse of peatlands in Kapuas
District and the risks associated with the spread of uncontrolled fire,
farmers and palm oil plantations have been pressured to abandon
these practices.
Ecological changes to the peatlands in Central Kalimantan caused
by large-scale land conversion to agriculture have further increased
the risk associated with using fire. The “Mega Rice Project” began in
1995 and involved the construction of a canal system that converted
1.7 million hectares of land from peat swamp forest to rice production
area. Thousands of poor families from Java, Bali, and other islands
were given incentives (e.g., land grants and work opportunities) to
migrate to the region and farm the land (Hecker, 2005; Hooijer et al.,
2008). The canals drain water from the peatlands, drying the carbonrich soil and leaving the area in a highly combustible state. In 1997
uncontrolled fires in Central Kalimantan contributed substantially to
Indonesia’s greenhouse gas emissions (Page et al., 2002).
However, because fire is critical to farmers’ shifting cultivation method,
entirely prohibiting burning practices is not feasible. This became
clear in 2006, when a total ban on fire for land clearing was met with
widespread anger and protest. The Seasonal Fire Early Warning Tool
opens the door to a more practical solution: the tool’s ENSO-based
prediction is able to identify high-risk seasons during which fire could
be prohibited or the timing adjusted in accordance with the timing
of the monsoon. The tool can also identify periods of low risk, when
burning could continue.
TARGET AUDIENCE
The climate information made available by the Seasonal Fire Early
Warning Tool is primarily meant for provincial and district-level
government actors, university stakeholders, community fire brigades,
and farmers’ groups. The tool was originally developed for use in
Central Kalimantan due to the prevalence of fire in the region, the large
area of peat land, and the environmental implications of disaster. As
will be discussed further, government actors at the provincial level use
the tool to generate seasonal fire risk prediction and then disseminate
the information down to the district and community-levels. Ultimately,
the information is meant to reach those who would adopt alternatives
to fire (e.g. farmers) during periods of heightened risk.
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CLIMATE AND CONTEXTUAL INFORMATION
Uncontrolled fires are primarily influenced by rainfall variability
o al., 2009; Tacconi et al., 2007). Rainfall variability, in
(Harrison et
turn, is significantly influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) phenomenon, which affects sea-surface temperatures in
the Pacific Ocean (Aldrian and Susanto, 2003; Chang et al., 2004).
During a warm ENSO phase (El Niño), rainfall is below average and
the onset of the monsoon is delayed over many parts of the country
(Moron, Robertson, Boer, 2009). Correspondingly, El Niño years show
a marked increase in fire occurrence and magnitude (Harrison et al.,
2009).
Initial analysis by IRI and IPB confirmed that these relationships held
true in the province of Central Kalimantan. Led by Dr. Pietro Ceccato of
the IRI, research compared satellite-derived fire location, or “hotspot”,
data with satellite-derived rainfall data from 1998-2006. Hotspot data
was consolidated from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer
(NOAA-AVHRR) and the NASA TERRA-Moderate Resolution
Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Meanwhile, rainfall data was
sourced from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of
Precipitation (CMAP) and CPC Morphing Technique (CMORPH). The
comparison showed that fire activity was higher during years of belowaverage rainfall (IRI/IPB, 2009). Further analysis showed that NINO4,
an indicator of Pacific Ocean sea-surface anomalies, was strongly
related to fire activity one to two months later.
This analysis enabled the development of the provincial-level Seasonal
Fire Early Warning Tool in its current form: a regression model based
on input from the NINO4 index that provides probabilistic fire activity
scenarios on a one-to-two-month time horizon. The Indonesian
Bureau of Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) and
the Indonesian Space Agency (LAPAN) initially provided additional
technical expertise and locally available data: precipitation data from
rainfall stations, for example, were used to confirm that the satellitederived datasets reflect the reality on the ground. Meanwhile, NOAA
continues to provide hotspot data at no cost, which the Agency for
Natural Resource Conservation (BKSDA) overlays with a land use
map to guide ground verification of fire locations (Boer et al, 2006).
At the start of the dry season (and before beginning to clear land),
users are able to consult the tool and obtain information regarding
the predicted level of fire risk. The tool outputs a decision matrix of
probabilistic scenarios for fire activity being above or below normal,
2
which is available online1 via the IRI maproom. The
tool also enables
stakeholders to view satellite rainfall indices over Central Kalimantan
and includes a training manual in both English and Indonesian Bahasa
languages. When the tool was first made available, workshops were
conducted by IRI, IPB, and CARE Indonesia to familiarize potential
users with climate prediction concepts and the opportunities afforded
by such foresight.
CLIMATE INFORMATION AND DECISION
MAKING
The Seasonal Fire Early Warning Tool has already influenced policy
in Indonesia surrounding the use of fire for land clearing. In 2006,
for example, the tool was used to adjust a provincial all-out ban on
fire use. In 2008, provincial policymakers consulted seasonal climate
information to identify conditions in which fire use should be permitted.
Since then the tool has been used by provincial-level government
agencies for fire season planning (Someshwar et al., 2010).
Despite the policy of 2008, however, the current institutional
infrastructure for fire management is mostly focused on short-term
monitoring and reactionary fire suppression. A lack of coordinated
information flow across government agencies along with insufficient
institutional and technical capacity limit the operational use of the
early warning tool (Someshwar et al., 2010). Fully adopting the fire
early warning system and using it to drive anticipatory action would
represent a significant shift from the status quo and would require an
unprecedented level of coordination among local government agencies
(Someshwar et al, 2010). The use of incentives to support farmers in
adjusting or avoiding fire use during high-risk years will therefore be a
key component of an effective fire management program.
More widespread use of the Fire Early Warning Tool could enable
government actors to 1) tailor fire policies to specific levels of risk,
2) better focus fire readiness, patrolling, and awareness-building
activities, and 3) work with local communities to reduce use of fire
during high-risk years with appropriate incentives. As fires often occur
in remote areas, they can be difficult to detect, report, and respond
to. Consequently, community fire-fighting brigades are especially
important. However, it is difficult for volunteers to leave their incomeearning activities to travel to fires and suppress them without pay.
Some cases therefore may require government to provide funding or
other incentives beyond training and equipment. When more than the
average number of fires is predicted to occur during the dry season,
government agencies may be able to strengthen community brigades
in those areas.
IMPLEMENTATION
PROCESSES AND MECHANISMS
STAKEHOLDER AND ISSUE IDENTIFICATION
The Seasonal Fire Early Warning Tool is the product of a collaborative
effort among development, environmental, research and,
governmental organizations to promote sustainable management
of the peatlands and local economic development. In 2006, the
Central Kalimantan Peatlands Project (CKPP) brought together the
consortium of Wetlands International, CARE Indonesia, Borneo
Orangutan Survival Foundation, WWF-Indonesia, and Palangka Raya
University. Implemented in what is now considered the “Ex-Mega Rice
Project” area, CKPP focused on hydrological peatland restoration,
reforestation, biodiversity conservation, public health, and livelihood
enhancement. Recognizing the threat posed by uncontrolled fires to
livelihoods and the environment, CARE Indonesia worked with the
provincial government of Central Kalimantan to improve fire monitoring
and establish community-based fire response teams. CARE Indonesia
invited Dr. Shiv Someshwar (of the IRI) and Dr. Rizaldi Boer (of IPB)
to combine efforts to develop a deeper understanding of peatland fires
and identify how they could be better anticipated and managed.
IRI and IPB’s discussions with the Provincial Environmental Office and
other government agencies revealed that a seasonal early warning
system would enable them to better anticipate and prepare for severe
fires during the dry season—and that such a system did not yet exist.
At that time, BMKG produced and disseminated the only source of fire
prediction, the Fire Danger Rating System, which projected fire risk
three days in advance. Given the time and resources required to take
anticipatory action in response to heightened fire risk, it was clear that
a one or two month forecast would better suit the needs of the region.
1 http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Fire/
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In Central Kalimantan, there are a number of agencies and groups
involved in forest and land fire management. While Indonesia’s
decentralized political structure requires that provincial and districtlevel stakeholders have the most immediate influence over
implementation, national ministries also play a role in providing and
enabling policy framework and key information services.
Actual operation of the tool has yet to be developed. Agencies are
aware of the tool’s existence, but it is not yet being used to facilitate
decision-making or guide the development of action plans. Moving
forward, this will most likely be handled by a government agency such
as BMKG. However, making the tool fully operational and complete
with district and village level action plans will involve a range of
stakeholders. Key stakeholders and their respective roles are as
follows:
Information providers: BMKG and LAPAN provide the vast
majority of the technical expertise and data needed to develop the
provincial Fire Early Warning Tool. NOAA, however, provides hotspot
data, which BKSDA overlays with a land-use map to locate hotspots
and guide ground verification (Boer et al, 2006).
Service Developers and Advisors: IRI and IPB are currently
developing a district-level version of the tool, and continue to advise
local institutions on how the Seasonal Fire Early Warning Tool can be
used. They also plan workshops based on the types of institutional
arrangements and incentive mechanisms needed to operationalize
the tool.
Provincial Government Agencies: Provincial agencies are
responsible for setting local policy and programs that are aligned with
national policy and government goals. Provincial agencies may provide
recommendations to district governments, and may also provide
additional resources as needed. If district resources are insufficient
to suppress a fire, for example, their counterparts at the provincial
level send teams and equipment. In the case of the Seasonal Fire
Early Warning Tool, the Provincial Environmental Office of Central
Kalimantan was especially important; the organization was able to
provide the service developers with the information they needed in the
early stages of the tool’s development.
District Government Agencies: The Kapuas district government
is primarily focused on reactive response (i.e., fire suppression), and
preparatory activities are limited. This leaves little opportunity to
pursue proactive, preventative measures that could strengthen village
capacity to anticipate and manage fires. The Disaster Management
Agency was created in 2007 at the provincial level and is currently
being established in the Kapuas District to coordinate interagency
prevention, early warning, and response efforts for all types of
disasters, including fire. It is expected that the Disaster Management
Agency will play a large coordinating role in fire prevention and
suppression. The Fire Early Warning tool could significantly aid in the
Agency’s fire risk reduction activities.
fire brigades are paid, but in most cases the fire fighters are local
volunteers. Information from the Fire Early Warning tool could be
disseminated to community fire brigades, allowing them to heighten
fire surveillance activities when, and potentially where, high-risk
conditions are predicted.
Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs): NGOs play
an important role in working with local government, researchers,
and villages. CARE Indonesia, Wetlands International, the Borneo
Orangutan Survival Foundation, and WWF-Indonesia were all involved
in the CKPP. CARE Indonesia in particular developed a strong working
relationship with the Provincial Environmental Office, a partnership
that was critical to both creating the provincial Fire Early Warning
Tool and engaging other government agencies. CARE Indonesia has
also facilitated the development of village plans to manage hazards
(especially fire), and both CARE Indonesia and WWF-Indonesia
have been involved in the creation of fire brigades, which may play
a key role in monitoring hotspots during the dry season. These past
experiences could inform the government collaboration and villagelevel engagement necessary to operationalize the district-level Fire
Early Warning Tool.
Village leaders and institutions: Within villages, local leaders
and groups can facilitate communication with farmers and households
regarding seasonal fire prediction and alternatives to fire use. The
village leader is a critical link between the village and higher levels
of government, responsible for defining the village’s development
priorities and advocating for their support. Meanwhile, neighborhood
groups and leaders offer a mechanism to reach individual households.
Farmers’ groups in particular serve to connect farmers with
government programs and subsidies. With increased coordination
and communication, use of the Fire Early Warning tool could enhance
planning efforts at the local level.
Companies: Companies are prohibited from using fire under any
circumstance. Particularly once plantations have been established,
companies have a vested interest in protecting their land from fires
in the surrounding area. Companies could benefit from a district-level
seasonal fire prediction that enables them to increase surveillance on
their land, and potentially extend monitoring and socialization efforts
into the surrounding communities.
STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT
Implementation of the district Seasonal Fire Early Warning Tool
and corresponding actions will require close coordination and
communication among institutions at the provincial, district, and village
levels. Possible roles for stakeholders in implementation are outlined
in Figure 1 on the next page.
Community fire brigades: The Center for International
Cooperation in Sustainable Management of Tropical Peatland at the
University of Palangka Raya (CIMTROP) has done extensive work
to establish community fire brigades that rely on locally developed
training, technologies, and equipment. Community fire brigades are
responsible for reporting fires when they occur, and are the first line
of response for fire suppression. In some cases, the community
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Figure 1: A potential model for the implementation of the Seasonal Fire Early Warning Tool
Following this model, the key activities and mechanisms can be further
described as follows:
1. Generate seasonal fire risk prediction: A single government
agency will be responsible for running the district Seasonal Fire Early
Warning Tool once it becomes operational, providing the prediction
one to two months before the onset of the dry season each year and
updating the predication regularly throughout the dry season. BMKG
is well suited for this role, as it possesses a high level of technical
capacity and is a widely recognized source of credible information.
Furthermore, numerous agencies already rely on BMKG for weather
and climate data, and the provincial BMKG office is familiar with the
Seasonal Fire Early Warning Tool.
2. Develop and manage district action plan to reduce
fire risk: Developing and implementing a district action plan to
reduce fire risk requires a high level of coordination between district
agencies. The Disaster Management Agency (DMA) is responsible for
all disasters and may be tasked with coordinating inter-agency efforts
for fire management, as well.
Information produced by the Seasonal Fire Early Warning Tool should
be interpreted in conjunction with the district fire risk map generated
by local government agencies to identify high fire risk areas based
on historical satellite-derived hotspot observations. Based on the
seasonal prediction and characteristics of high-risk areas, district
government agencies can jointly evaluate and prioritize activities to
reduce fire risk and secure the resources needed for implementation.
When fire risk is predicted to be high, for example, anticipatory actions
can be focused in vulnerable areas. Creating an action plan one to two
months in advance of the dry season will allow agencies to increase
efforts focused on prevention, risk reduction, and preparedness, which
are limited in the current model of fire management.
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3. Implement district action plan: Mobilizing resources will
require coordination and cooperation among actors at the provincial
and district levels. Developing partnerships with local communitybased organizations will be important to ensure that action reaches the
village level. Potential links between the district and villages already
exist via agriculture and plantation extension workers, community fire
brigades, and village and farmer group leaders. Interviews with locals,
however, suggest that these links are often weak and receive limited
attention and funding. Effective action plans will require allocation
of sufficient human and financial resources that ensure operative
monitoring of the program.
4. Develop and implement village action plan: Various
activities to reduce fire risk (e.g. implementing alternative land clearing
methods, verifying water availability, or campaigning to delay burning)
already take place at the village and farm level. A village action plan
would consolidate those activities, along with the communication
and monitoring mechanisms needed to ensure greater participation.
District agencies and liaisons can facilitate the creation of these
plans, and provide support through programs, training, or incentives.
Ultimately, however, villages will be responsible for both the plans and
their implementation.
In addition to these activities, emphasis must also be put on information
dissemination. Currently, various types of information related to shortterm fire risk are generated by government agencies (e.g., fire hotspot
maps, a three-day Fire Danger Rating System [FDRS] forecast, and
fire alert levels) and there are multiple uncoordinated channels through
which that information is disseminated (e.g., extension workers, text
message, television, newspapers, signs, ad-hoc socialization through
community fire patrols, or phone calls or letters to the village leader).
However, with such variation and no follow-up verification, information
reaches farmers with varying degrees of success. Interviews with
villages have indicated that in some cases, early warning information,
FDRS, and other climate information do not reach the villages at all
(Boer et al., 2006).
4
Today, there is no precedent for reliably and consistently delivering
seasonal fire warning information to end-users. District officials and
village leaders, in close consultation with the BMKG, will therefore
need to determine the most effective mechanisms for communication.
In doing so, it will be important to consider the preferences of each
target audience member.
FUNDING MECHANISMS
Initial support for the development of the Seasonal Fire Early
Warning Tool and capacity-building workshops came from the
Central Kalimantan Peatlands Project, funded by the Government
of the Netherlands with supplemental funding from NOAA. Current
efforts, which focus on updating the tool for the district level using
rainfall forecasts and land use data, receive funding from USAID
Indonesia, Columbia University, and IPB. Ongoing use of the current
tool is possible at a low cost. The province-level tool is accessible
online and supplemental training in English and Bahasa is available
via the Climate Risk Knowledge System2, a joint project of Columbia
University, IPB, NOAA, and CARE Indonesia that provides access to
climate risk management tools.
While funding for the development and use of the tool itself
is straightforward, funding possibilities for other aspects of its
implementation are still being explored. Key funding needs include:
providing incentives for reducing or adjusting fire use; supporting
community fire brigades; building district-level institutional capacities
to use the tool; and supporting plantation and agriculture extension
services.
As previously discussed, many of these needs, particularly in the
area of incentives, can be met by reallocating existing government
program funds and resources. To identify potential funders, it may help
to consider those parties that benefit from improved fire management
during high-risk years. Uncontrolled fire, for example, poses a
significant threat to the production of oil palm. Oil palm companies
have therefore worked with villages surrounding their plantation area
to monitor, patrol, and suppress fire. Furthermore, Central Kalimantan
is a pilot province for the United Nations Reducing Emissions from
Deforestation and Forest Degradation Programme (UN-REDD), and
funding also may be available from the international community to
reward efforts that reduce carbon emissions.
MANAGEMENT AND DECISION MAKING
The Seasonal Fire Early Warning Tool is an important resource for
governmental climate risk managers, who can use the information
provided by the tool to establish relevant policy, support community fire
brigades, increase community awareness, and promote alternatives
to burning. The importance of the tool for such activities is further
explained below:
Fire Risk Index: The Seasonal Fire Early Warning Tool is an
important resource for climate risk managers and associated decision
makers. The tool and its accompanying workshops seem to have
influenced language for the 2008 provincial government regulation on
the use of fire for land clearing. The regulation replaced the unpopular
all-out ban on fire for land clearing and established a “Fire Risk Index”
based on “ENSO or monthly rainfall forecast data” to predict fire
severity. District and sub-district government officials are tasked with
deciding whether or not to grant burning permits, and the governor of
Central Kalimantan is responsible for setting alerts for dangerous fire
conditions (whereby no fire can be used) based on the Fire Risk Index
and other indices (Central Kalimantan Government, 2008).
Community Fire Brigade Readiness, Patrolling, and
Awareness-Building Campaigns: Depending on the probability
of fire activity, government officials may decide that fire should be
allowed but that precautions must also be implemented to ensure that
fire does not spread out of control. Fire risk prediction available one
to two months in advance would enable institutions responsible for
fire management to anticipate when additional resources for these
preventative activities may be required. Currently, additional funds are
only requested after fire disasters have occurred. The Seasonal Fire
Early Warning Tool supports district government agencies’ requests
for additional resources before the fire season. Wider use of the tool
would allow efforts to be focused on prevention and early detection of
uncontrolled fire, ensuring that community fire brigades are equipped
and functioning, increasing the patrol of high-risk areas, and increasing
awareness-building efforts and communication to village members.
Awareness-building campaigns are important in promoting controlled
burning methods. These include creating “fire breaks” – buffer
zones devoid of combustible biomass – around plots of land that
are being cleared, patrolling the perimeter of the burn area until
the fire is extinguished, and communicating with landholders in
neighboring areas when fire use is planned so that not everyone burns
simultaneously. These measures may not be able to contain fire in the
driest conditions, when dry season rainfall is extremely low. However,
they may suffice during periods of lower risk. Government- and NGOsponsored community fire brigades and those led by CIMTROP are
highly knowledgeable of controlled burning methods and, with the
proper resources, would be well positioned to train farmers.
Land Clearing Alternatives, Incentive Systems, and
Enabling Programs: When the probability of dangerous fire
conditions is high, it may become necessary to prohibit fire for land
clearing. However, with enough warning it is possible to promote
and support alternatives. These alternatives include: herbicide
application, manual clearing, or tractor clearing. Another option would
involve delaying fire use until the end of the dry season so that the
impending rains of the monsoon would lower the risk of fire spreading
uncontrollably. All of these alternatives are associated with additional
costs, as well as changes in traditional practices that require technical
support and resources for widespread uptake. Without support,
prohibiting fire during high-risk years would, in light of economic
barriers, negatively impact livelihoods and preclude the adoption of
alternatives.
In some cases, government agencies already have programs,
networks, and resources that they can draw from to provide this
support. The Agriculture Agency, for example, has a tractor subsidy
program that could be put towards villages in hotspot areas when
seasonal predictions from the Fire Early Warning Tool indicate that
conditions will be extremely dry. Discounted tractors would provide
farmers with an affordable and time-efficient alternative to fire for land
clearing. Due to the economic barriers mentioned, this is one of the
most critical components in operationalizing the tool. Meanwhile, the
Plantation Agency offers an herbicide subsidy program for plantation
crop farmers (such as rubber or oil palm), thought this alternative
could also be made available to farmers who rely on fire for shifting
agriculture.
2 http://crk.iri.columbia.edu/fire/
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EVALUATION
As the district Seasonal Fire Early Warning Tool is implemented,
developing mechanisms to solicit feedback and evaluate its use will
contribute to its future refinement and effectiveness.
The project team has and will continue to gather feedback through
in-person engagement with users. Workshops to train district officials
and other stakeholders on the use and implications of the tool will also
serve as an opportunity to gain insight into user questions and needs,
which may inform the future development and refinement of the tool.
To date, strong communication with the Provincial Environmental
Office has provided a stream of feedback and has resulted in
workshops to engage other government officials and the development
of the district-level Seasonal Fire Early Warning Tool. To continue
gathering feedback throughout future work, it will be important to
establish a similar relationship with the district agency coordinating
fire management.
Meanwhile, evaluating of the effectiveness of the tool is challenging. If,
at the end of the dry season, the number of actual hotspots is less than
the median, it could mean that the tool and subsequent decisions were
effective, or it could mean that the prediction itself was not entirely
accurate. An appropriate baseline for comparison is currently being
determined.
Despite this challenge, there are currently several possible ways to
evaluate the effectiveness of the Seasonal Fire Early Warning Tool
and the implementation of anticipatory actions. In all El Niño years,
the land area burned increases significantly, and as a consequence air
pollution also increases (Field et al. 2009). BMKG routinely monitors
the concentration of particulate matter (PM-10) in the atmosphere,
and data shows that during El Niño years PM-10 is above the critical
threshold. Historical measures of PM-10 during El Niño years can be
combined with satellite data (to derive spatial information) and used
as a baseline to evaluate PM-10 in the future. Alternatively, districtlevel data on the rate of CO2 emissions in historical fire areas could
be used as a baseline for comparison; CO2 emission reductions are
expected if less area burns as a result of preparatory action.
Although there are currently mechanisms to evaluate community
response to fire, evaluation (or any follow-up) on activities related to
prevention is lacking. Evaluation could, for example, take the form
of a meeting at the end of the dry season to review the anticipatory
measures taken, the performance of fire brigades, and an assessment
of farmer’s use of alternative land clearing methods.
CAPACITIES
EXISTING CAPACITIES
The development and ongoing refinement of the Seasonal Fire Early
Warning Tool is made possible by the technical and scientific expertise
of IRI and IPB, along with the critical coordinating efforts of CARE
Indonesia and local government officials. While the tool is relatively
straightforward and user friendly, BMKG in particular possesses
the technical capacity and staff needed to interpret and share the
seasonal fire risk forecast (along with other weather information) with
district and provincial decision-makers.
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Government agencies also have programs and resources that could
be utilized in conjunction with the Seasonal Fire Early Warning Tool
to reduce fire risk. Within villages, community fire brigades play a key
role in detecting and responding to fires. In light of such resources, the
key question is then how to create institutional and decision-making
mechanisms that facilitate a coordinated response to the seasonal fire
forecast each year.
CAPACITY GAPS
To enable the adoption of the district-level Seasonal Fire Early
Warning Tool and thereby stimulate activities that reduce fire risk,
a number of human, infrastructural, institutional, and procedural
capacities are needed. More specifically, these capacities are needed
to 1) ensure the timely delivery of fire prediction information and the
application of that information to regulate fire use when necessary,
2) encourage village leaders and stakeholders to implement activities
that reduce fire use and risk, and 3) collaborate with village and district
stakeholders to plan and implement productive livelihood strategies
that do not rely on the use of fire.
To this end, actors at the provincial level may play a supportive
and advisory role, as implementation is primarily driven by actors
at the district and village levels. Provincial-level actors also may
be called upon for supplemental information services (e.g. BMKG),
infrastructure, and additional resources as needed. Enhanced
communication between provincial and district actors will help ensure
that goals, programs, and activities do not conflict and, if possible,
align.
At the district level, institutional mechanisms for coordination and the
capacity for planning, management, and partnership development
will be critical to developing and implementing a district action plan.
Creating a multi-stakeholder plan for anticipatory action will require
both the willingness and capacity to strategically deploy shared
resources and agree on priorities. Specific capacities required include:
• Strategic planning and project management: As the lead
institution, the Disaster Management Agency will need to identify and
address existing gaps and overlaps in fire management efforts.
• Open and equal access to information: Interviews with local
officials reveal duplicative, uncoordinated generation and sharing of
information related to fire risk. Critical information should be identified,
and designated providers and reliable dissemination channels should
be established.
• Technical analysis to determine where activities should
be implemented: The expertise of the Development and Planning
Agency, for example, could be utilized in land use development and
mapping.
• Institutional flexibility to adapt resources: Because
activities will rely to a great extent on support from government
programs (e.g. subsidies for herbicides and tractors for land clearing),
agencies will need to shift resources towards fire management, and to
find better ways to reach recipients in high-risk areas.
• Dedicated and accountable human resources: Dedicated
and accountable human resources are needed to bring village leaders
and stakeholders together to implement fire management activities
at the village level. In addition to community facilitation skills, village
liaisons will need sound knowledge of fire preparedness planning,
methods to control fire, and alternatives to fire. In the event that non-
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At the village level, successful creation and implementation of action
plans to reduce fire risk during the dry season will depend on the
development of key capacities:
• Reliable, efficient communication infrastructure: As is
the case at the district level, climate-related information does not often
reach farmers. Communication infrastructure is needed to ensure that
timely and relevant information is disseminated throughout the village
community.
• Understanding of and ability to implement practices
that reduce fire risk: For example, farmers may need training on
how to construct firebreaks or how to use herbicides and/or tractors
to clear land.
• Community monitoring: In drought situations, community
monitoring mechanisms that track uncontrolled fire incidence can help
ensure that villagers uphold their commitments. This is especially the
case if villagers receive support to reduce fire risk.
LOOKING TOWARD THE
FUTURE
GOALS
The 2008 regulations around fire use for land clearing demonstrated
a much-needed policy shift from reactive response to an approach
centered on anticipatory risk reduction. The provincial-level Seasonal
Fire Early Warning Tool is vital to ensuring that the policy shift
translates into concrete actions at the district and village levels. The
future goals of the project aim to demonstrate how a successful local
model for proactive and adaptive fire management can take place in
the district of Kapuas.
PROJECT EXPANSION
Once the government coordination and incentive systems are
successfully tested in Kapuas, the model can be replicated in other
fire-prone districts in Central Kalimantan, as well as throughout
other provinces in Kalimantan and Sumatra. The 2008 government
regulation of Central Kalimantan demonstrated a viable regulatory
framework for incorporating seasonal climate information into fire
management. The implementation of similar regulations elsewhere
would further facilitate the adoption of the Seasonal Fire Early Warning
Tool and system in other districts.
In addition to expanding the project geographically, technical
improvements are also planned for the future. While the ENSO cycle
indicated by NINO4 was a powerful predictor of fire activity across
Central Kalimantan, correlating ENSO with rainfall anomalies in
Indonesia has the potential to produce more localized predictions based
on seasonal rainfall forecasts (Moron et al., 2010). Higher resolution
predictions that can more concretely inform local coordination and
action plans are needed in district government agencies and villages.
The provincial-level tool is therefore being adapted for the district
level, beginning with Kapuas. IRI has tested the relationship between
rainfall statistics and fire hotspots using seasonal precipitation data
for Kapuas extracted from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission
(TRMM) and Asian Precipitation – Highly Resolved Observational
Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (Aphrodite)
Climate Services
Partnership
data sets. A strong relationship between monsoon onset and total
seasonal hotspot occurrence was found and global climate models is
now being explored for suitable options to forecast rainfall anomalies
and fire activity in Kapuas one to two months in advance.
LESSONS LEARNED
Inter-organizational partnerships and collaborative efforts with
stakeholders were key to successfully identifying the need for
a seasonal early warning system and creating the original early
warning tool. The close relationships CARE Indonesia built with local
government agencies and farming communities, along with IPB’s
well-regarded position in the region, were crucial in fostering decision
makers’ acceptance of the research and their willingness to act upon
the presented climate information (Someshwar et al., 2010).
Initial funds for the creation of the Fire Early Warning Tool were
intended for basic research, and additional resources are needed for
its full implementation in the future. Downscaling to the district level
will increase the tool’s utility, and efforts to understand the institutional
context and the feasibility of an incentive system are crucial to the tool’s
full and operational use in anticipatory fire management practices.
Earlier investment in support of developing an incentive system may
have streamlined implementation of the tool.
THE WAY FORWARD
As the tool is further improved, effort must also be put towards making
it operational. The Columbia University Earth Institute’s Center on
Globalization and Sustainable Development (CGSD), the IRI, and the
Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management in Southeast
Asia Pacific (CCROM-SEAP) at IPB are now investigating institutional
coordination (and barriers to coordination), along with possible
incentive mechanisms.
Given that the current institutional infrastructure for fire management in
Kapuas is focused on reactionary fire suppression, using the fire early
warning system and operationalizing it to guide preemptive action
would represent a significant shift from the norm and would require
an unprecedented level of interagency coordination (Someshwar et
al, 2010). Funded by USAID Indonesia, current research and local
engagement aims to identify opportunities, obstacles, and resources
that enable more informed and coordinated decision-making along
with program implementation among district government agencies.
The 2006 ban on fire was unpopular in part due to the lack of support
offered for the transition into fire alternatives. The Seasonal Fire Early
Warning Tool would prohibit or delay the use of fire during high-risk
years and would ease the burden on farmers compared to an all-out
ban. However, additional support or compensation is still needed
to help farmers reduce fire when necessary. The project is now
investigating possible incentive mechanisms that may be connected
to the service to provide this compensation, and the government
support programs that could be involved.
7
PRINCIPLES OF THE GFCS
The design, development, and intended implementation of the Seasonal Fire Early Warning Tool reflect the Global Framework on Climate
Services (GFCS) principles 1, 4, 7 and 8.
As proposed in Principle 1, services and capacity building in this case target a particularly climate-vulnerable developing country. Indonesia has
a GDP per capita of less than $5,000 (PPP), and experiences significant impacts from climate variability and extremes (Ministry of Environment,
2007).
The integration of climate information with an early warning tool and anticipatory response exemplifies the operationalization of climate services,
as outlined in Principle 4.
In keeping with Principle 7, the fire early warning tool aims to provide fire risk information at a temporal and spatial scale that will enable
anticipatory action. While the available fire risk information is at weather scales, seasonal-scale fire predictions open new possibilities for
reducing fire risk. While the seasonal fire prediction will enable advanced planning for times when risk is high, existing weather fire risk forecasts
will continue to be useful at the daily scale.
Lastly the project also reflects GFCS Principle 8, “the Framework will be built through user – provider partnerships that include all stakeholders.”
Current efforts focused on local institutions and incentives will inform the design of anticipatory activities that result in fire risk reduction and
positive outcomes at the village level.
Principle 1: All countries will benefit, but priority shall go to building the capacity of climate-vulnerable developing
countries.
Principle 2: The primary goal of the Framework will be to ensure greater availability of, access to, and use of climate
services for all countries.
Principle 3: Framework activities will address three geographic domains; global, regional and national
Principle 4: Operational climate services will be the core element of the Framework.
Principle 5: Climate information is primarily an international public good provided by governments, which will have a
central role in its management through the Framework.
Principle 6: The Framework will promote the free and open exchange of climate-relevant observational data while
respecting national and international data policies.
Principle 7: The role of the Framework will be to facilitate and strengthen, not to duplicate.
Principle 8: The Framework will be built through user – provider partnerships that include all stakeholders.
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Central Kalimantan Provincial Government, 2008. “Guidance on Land and Yard Opening for People of Central Kalimantan.” Regulation 52/2008.
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