h1p://geospasial.bnpb.go.id SEASONAL FIRE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM Rizaldi Boer, M. Ardiansyah, A. Faqih, Achmad Siddik Thoha, Syamsoe Dwi Jatmiko, Anter Parulian Situmorang CCROM SEAP-­‐Bogor Agricultural University E-­‐mail: rizaldiboer@gmail.com HP: +62811117660 IntroducDon: General Standard OperaDonal Procedure for Disaster Management REHABILITATION/
RECONSTRUCTION Post Disasters EMERGENCY RESPONSE During Disaster No Disasters PREVENTION/MITIGATION ANTICIPATION Poten9ally Disaster will Occurs Funding for Disaster Management •  Indonesian Government RegulaDon No. 22/2008 on Financing and Aid Management: –  ArDcle 12 reads: Funds for disaster management in the pre-­‐
disaster phase shall be allocated for acDviDes under the following circumstances: •  No incident reported; and •  There is potenVal for a disaster to occur. –  ArDcle 14, paragraph (1), reads: The use of the funds for disaster management when there is potenVal for a disaster to occur referred to ArDcle 12, point b, includes their use for: •  Preparedness acDviDes; •  Early warning system development; and •  Disaster miDgaDon acDviDes. Hotspot density increase significantly during longer dry DEFINING FIRE ISK season (El Nino years) in R
Kalteng In Indonesia, long
DS is often
associated with El
Nino events
El Nino information and rainfall is very potential to be used for the
development of seasonal fire early warning system
•  Hotspot density •  Distance to road •  Distance to river •  Distance to village center •  Distance form HTI/Oil Palm Licenses •  Readiness of HTI/
HPH/etc Exposure Bio-­‐physic (SensiDvity) •  Land cover •  Depth of peatland •  Land system or landscape •  Presence of Water management Forest Fire Vulnerability •  PopulaVon •  GDP of Districts •  Indigenous land boundary •  Main source of income Social and economic (SensiDvity) AdapDve capacity •  Fire brigade (Manggala Agni) •  Fire care community •  Extension services/
field facilitators •  CommuniVes’/
farmers’ insVtuVons Maps of fire vulnerability can be updated regularly as land use data and others available and also based on spaDal plan Rescaled score of E,S,AC based on its relaDonship to hotspot Composite Mapping Analysis FV = f (E,S,AC) Fire Vulnerability Defining Fire Risk Rainfall/Hotspot PredicVon Below Fire Normal/High Vulnerability Normal/
Medium Above Normal/Low Very High VH H M_H High H M-­‐H M Medium M-­‐H M M-­‐L Low M M-­‐L L Very Low M-­‐L L VL Fire Risk PredicDon 28 forecast Rainfall forecast (good skill) Y = f(Rain) + error Model 50 x Hotspot (2) (1) Vulnerability Map Fire risk classificaVon •  VH = very high •  H = high •  M-­‐H = medium – high •  M = mediun •  L-­‐M= low – medium •  L = low •  VL = very low Hotspot PredicDon (3) Fire risk Peluang(HS(melewati((
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Vulnerability map of fire risk level DeterminaDon process Hotspot/Rainfall predicDon Peluang(HS(melewati((
Batas(ambang(
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Kerentanan(
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Fire risk map Fire Risk System (h1p://kebakaranhutan.or.id) Feature: #1 Fire Vulnerability Map of Central Kalimantan Province Feature: #2 Fire Vulnerability Map of Kapuas District at Central Kalimantan Feature: #3 Fire Vulnerability Map of Kapuas District At Central Kalimantan Check land cover of high vulnerable area PredicDon of Fire Risk Map for Sep 2015 Fire Risk InformaDon by village (1-­‐3 month lead Dme) LaVtude (a-­‐b) Longitude (c-­‐d) Name of Villages Fire Risk Index a1-­‐b1 c1-­‐d1 Village 1 High a2-­‐b2 c2-­‐d2 Village 2, 3 Medium a3-­‐b3 c3-­‐d3 Village 4 Very High … … … … a4-­‐b4 c4-­‐d4 Village x, y High Use of FRS for Fire Risk Management
REHABILITATION PREVENTION ANTICIPATION EMERGENCY RESPONSE Epilogue •  FRS can be used to provide early informaDon about the possible danger of forest and land fire –  PrevenVon: provides analysis to predict the potenDal forest and land fire –  Control: disseminate data and informaDon on near-­‐
real-­‐Dme to certain stakeholders for fire control –  Law Enforcement: provides data and fact-­‐based informaDon on violaDons of forest and land fire to be followed up legally •  IntervenDon that leads to lower hotspot number during the abnormal drought years may indicate lowering GHG emissions from peat fire (basis for incen2ves) Toward Permanent SoluDon (Panjaitan, Ministry of Environment of Forestry, 2015) •  RegulaDons for corporate sustainability (Landscape management); e.g. mosaic systems, such as obligaDon to have reservoir per unit area of the concession, in addiDon to those already defined in the permit. •  Review or audit compliance and environmental permits; the imposiDon of sancDons for violaDons •  InsDtuDonal Strengthening & Leadership at the district and village •  Design of policies for land clearing without burning (regulaDon, subsidies, assistance, etc.) •  Development of educaDon modules and generaDon love-­‐environment (Adiwiyata) •  InsDtuDonal strengthening in society (grassroots / local level), led by the Concerned CiDzens of Fire (Fire Fighters) and student/student. •  Community Alliance Dered from naDonal level to the District / Municipal/District /Village New Approach in Fire Management in 2015 (Panjaitan, Ministry of Environment of Forestry, 2015) •  The instrument technology and analy2cal support legal ac2on •  Control instruments for HOTSPOT control, air quality as a result of land and forest fires (ISPU and PM10) and health problems caused by land and forest fires (ISPA) •  Enforcement of the law: –  MulD-­‐doors (using different laws and regula2ons) –  Second line law enforcement –  AdministraDve step law in parallel to Criminal Law and Civil CollaboraDon with Directorate General of Law Enforcement and Police to seal fired area for further invesDgaDon (police line and sealed board) ~ deterrent effect (‘efek jera’) (Ministry of Environment of Forestry, 2015) Law Enforcement Efforts in Riau Province (Oct 2015) (Panjaitan, Ministry of Environment of Forestry, 2015) Police Unit No of cases Burned Area (ha) No of Suspect Personal Corporate 68 Suspects and 23 cases completed (P21) Other Compliance Instrument: -­‐  Economic incenDves/DisincenDves -­‐  EducaDon IncenDve for CommuniDes (Panjaitan, Ministry of Environment of Forestry, 2015) •  Providing subsidy and equipment support for land clearing without burning (PLTB) •  Procurement blocking the canal system to maintain water level (peat) •  Fire exDnguishers forest and land •  Environmentally friendly agriculture equipment's •  Training rural economic development with environment friendly vision •  Assist markeDng agricultural products for farmers who use PLTB •  Help ferDlizer and ameliorant in order to increase soil ferDlity without using the ash •  GranDng seeds and rights to culDvate shrubs to rehabilitate peat using commodiDes tolerant to shallow ground water level •  Property tax holiday for people who do not burning •  Scholarships for children / community members who are not burning forest and land (government or CSR) •  Discount for electricity cost •  The assistance program or provide facilitaDon for community in developing agribusiness acDviDes that do not burning forest and land etc IncenDves for Companies (Panjaitan, Ministry of Environment of Forestry, 2015) •  Tax holiday for companies that acDvely implement forest fire control in its concession area and can prevent forest and land fires widely (recently on HCS) •  RecommendaDons for the cerDficaDon process of the company. •  Priority facilitate the financing of the company. •  Guarantee the legality of the status of the region considering many overlapping land status •  Award in the field of environment for companies that do not do and can prevent forest and land fires •  Simple licensing procedure with longer permit duraDon for green investment acDviDes •  Etc DisincenDves (Panjaitan, Ministry of Environment of Forestry, 2015) •  Law enforcement at all level (communiDes and the companies) •  Provide AdministraDve sancDons (freezing permits, reducing the area of the license, the imposiDon of fines, revocaDon of licenses) •  The imposiDon of civil penalDes / fines and criminal sancDons