EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Edition Number
: 15/12/17-52
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: 11/03/2016
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This is the final report of the EUROCONTROL 7-year flight and service units
forecast, February 2016 release. This document has been prepared as the final
step in the revised, more inclusive forecast process that was agreed in 2013.
All Stakeholders’ comments and our responses to them are made available on
the STATFOR OneSky Team.
Any user of this seven-year forecast should consult the entire forecast range
(low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast includes
downside risks (e.g. the economic indicators could worsen) and upside risks
(e.g. high load factors could trigger higher traffic numbers sooner-thanexpected).
Forecast
IFR movements
To prepare this 7-year flight forecast, the most up-to-date input forecasts of
economic growth, population, low-cost market share growth, load factors,
future events, future high-speed rail network as well as future airport capacities
have been taken into account.
Since the previous forecast published in September 2015, the economic
outlook remained fairly stable (circa 2% economic growth at European level for
the next seven years). The various airspace blockages (e.g. Eastern Ukraine,
Syria, Libya), which have significantly changed the traffic patterns in SouthEastern Europe, are still in place, but have dwindling effect as the main
changes are more than 12 months ago. However, Ukraine recorded further
decreases in overflights from November 2015 following a mutual ban on flights
between Russia and Ukraine. Russian economy is expected to contract this
year. We note some changes in Russian tourism destinations, which are likely
to have a small impact on European totals as they are expected to be shifted to
Iberian destinations but will still have an impact on specific States (e.g. Turkey)
and on overflight patterns. Similarly, a likely shift in tourism overall towards
Greece and Iberia is neutral in terms of total flight counts, but as in 2015, is
likely to drive strong growth rates there.
It is to be noted that the falling oil prices have not (yet) been translated into a
reduction in ticket prices, thus not specifically boosting the passenger demand.
At European level (ECAC area), the traffic forecast for 2016 is in line with the
September 2015 forecast with a growth of 2.4% (±1.4pp). For 2017, a growth of
2.1% is foreseen (±1.3pp). Removing the effect of the leap year (±0.3pp); this
in fact means that we expect a growth of 2.1% for 2016 and 2.4% for 2017.
Dealing with the busiest European States; the forecasts of 2016 for UK and
Spain have been revised upwards (compared to the previous forecast) to 2.7%
and 6.7%. Germany is stable with 2.7%. On the other hand, the 2016 forecasts
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for France and Italy have slightly been revised downwards to rates around
2.2% and 1.8%.
From 2018 onwards, European flight growth is expected to remain stable at
around 2.2% per year over the 2018-2022 period. The 2008 peak of 10.2
million flights is forecasted to be reached again by 2017; a 9-year hiatus.
The forecast is for 11.5 million IFR flight movements (±1.2 million) in Europe in
2022, 16% more than in 2015.
1
Figure 1. Summary of flight forecast for Europe (ECAC ).
ECAC
2012 2013 2014 2015
H
IFR Flight
Movements
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
RP2
AAGR
2019/2014
2022/2015
AAGR
. 10,293 10,639 11,092 11,503 11,997 12,417 12,868
3.8%
3.3%
B 9,710 9,603 9,770 9,917 10,153 10,364 10,578 10,818 11,091 11,301 11,535
2.2%
2.1%
L
.
.
.
. 10,023 10,107 10,140 10,231 10,335 10,373 10,440
0.7%
0.9%
H
.
.
.
.
3.8%
3.4%
4.3%
3.7%
4.3%
3.5%
3.6%
3.8%
3.3%
B -2.2% -1.1%
1.7%
1.5%
2.4%
2.1%
2.1%
2.3%
2.5%
1.9%
2.1%
2.2%
2.1%
.
.
1.1%
0.8%
0.3%
0.9%
1.0%
0.4%
0.6%
0.7%
0.9%
.
.
.
(Thousands)
Annual
Growth
(compared to
previous year
unless otherwise
mentioned)
L
.
.
Total En-Route Service Units
Following a slowdown of the growth rates in Central Europe from August 2015,
now that the routing patterns avoiding various airspaces (e.g., Eastern Ukraine)
have been in place for over 12 months, a lower growth in the service units is
expected in 2016 compared to the September 2015 forecast.
For 2016, the total en-route service units in the participating EUROCONTROL
member states (CRCO14) are expected to grow by 3.1% (±1.4pp) compared to
2015 and reach 141.9 million. This is a downwards revision by 0.7 pp
compared to the 3.8% growth forecast in September 2015. 2017 is expected to
see a growth of 2.8% compared to 2016, 0.2 pp lower than what was forecast
in September 2015 and will reach 146 million en-route total service units.
Considering that 2016 is a leap year, these growth figures can be rather
expressed in terms of average daily growth, which correspond respectively to a
growth of 2.8% for 2016 and to a growth of 3.1% for 2017.
In 2021, the service units will end 1.7 million lower than expected in the
September 2015 forecast, reaching in total 163.4 million in 2021, and then will
reach 167.6 million in 2022, which represents an average annual growth rate of
2.9% compared to 2015.
1
ECAC is the European Civil Aviation Conference. See Annex 1 for a definition.
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Figure 2. Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe.
Total en-route
service units 2012
(Thousands)
H
CRCO14*
2013
.
2014
.
2015
.
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022/
2014
Total
Growth
2022
36%
. 143,850 149,529 157,405 164,524 172,643 179,748 187,436
RP2
2019/
2014
AAGR
. 4.5%
B 122,298 124,910 132,130 137,689 141,945 145,972 150,229 154,606 159,406 163,372 167,633
22% 2.2% 3.2%
L
.
.
.
. 140,069 142,465 143,840 145,952 148,170 149,492 151,194
10%
. 2.0%
H
.
.
.
. 120,307 124,587 130,750 136,089 142,252 147,468 153,080
33%
. 4.0%
†
RP2Region B 105,251 106,930 111,670 115,063 118,792 121,710 124,870 128,055 131,610 134,414 137,421
L
.
Total en-route
service units 2012
(Growth)
CRCO14*
RP1
2014/
2011
AAGR
.
2013
.
2014
19% 1.5% 2.8%
8%
. 117,295 118,886 119,630 121,018 122,500 123,203 124,221
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
. 1.6%
RP1
AAGR 2014/
2022/ 2011
2014 AAGR
RP2
2019/
2014
AAGR
H
.
.
.
.
4.5%
3.9%
5.3%
4.5%
4.9%
4.1%
4.3%
4.5%
B
-1.3%
2.1%
5.8%
4.2%
3.1%
2.8%
2.9%
2.9%
3.1%
2.5%
2.6%
2.9% 2.2% 3.2%
L
.
.
.
.
1.7%
1.7%
1.0%
1.5%
1.5%
0.9%
1.1%
1.3%
. 2.0%
H
.
.
.
.
4.6%
3.6%
4.9%
4.1%
4.5%
3.7%
3.8%
4.2%
. 4.0%
. 4.5%
RP2Region† B
-1.4%
1.6%
4.4%
3.0%
3.2%
2.5%
2.6%
2.6%
2.8%
2.1%
2.2%
2.6% 1.5% 2.8%
L
.
.
.
.
1.9%
1.4%
0.6%
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.8%
1.1%
. 1.6%
* CRCO14 designates the sum over all the states participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in 2014 of all
TSU either measured or forecasted for the corresponding year.
†
RP2 series includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic (OAT) for Germany.
Terminal Navigation Service Units
In 2016, the terminal navigation service units are expected to grow by 3.1%
compared to 2015 to reach 7.7 million in the States concerned by the second
reference period (RP2 Region), which represents a growth of 2.8% in daily
terms as 2016 is a leap year. In 2017, an annual growth rate of 2.8% (i.e. 3.1%
growth in daily terms because of the leap year effect) is expected.
The expected average annual growth rate (AAGR) for the RP2 region during
the second reference period (2019 compared to 2014) is expected to stand at
3% and after the end of the reference period, in 2022, 9.1 million terminal
navigation service units are expected for the whole region, which represents a
total growth of 22.2% compared to 2015.
Figure 3. Summary of forecast for the terminal navigation service units in the RP2 Region
area
RP2 Region
2011
TNSU Total
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2019/
2014
.
4.2%
9,144.1 2.9% -0.5%
3.0%
L
.
.
.
.
. 7,613.0 7,731.5 7,798.0 7,948.1 8,083.8 8,174.8
8,290.8 1.5%
.
1.8%
TNSU Annual H
Growth
B
(%)
.
.
.
.
.
4.5%
4.0%
5.1%
4.6%
4.9%
4.1%
4.2% 4.5%
.
4.2%
8.6%
-1.9%
-0.1%
0.6%
3.0%
3.1%
2.8%
2.8%
3.1%
3.2%
2.5%
2.8% 2.9% -0.5%
3.0%
.
.
.
.
.
1.7%
1.6%
0.9%
1.9%
1.7%
1.1%
1.4% 1.5%
1.8%
L
.
.
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
.
.
. 7,819.3 8,130.1 8,548.1 8,945.4 9,380.7 9,764.3
Edition: 15/12/17-52
10,173.6 4.5%
AAGR
RP2
B 7,376.4 7,234.3 7,223.5 7,266.7 7,484.2 7,714.4 7,927.6 8,152.7 8,403.3 8,674.4 8,891.0
(thousands)
H
2012
AAGR AAGR
2022/ RP1
2015
2014/
2011
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EUROCONTROL SEVENYEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
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Flight Movements
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2016-2022
Abstract
This is the final report of the EUROCONTROL 7-year flight and service units forecast, February
2016 release.
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©2016 The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL). This
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DOCUMENT APPROVAL
EDITION HISTORY
Edition
Validity Date
Author
V0.1
31/12/2015
STATFOR Team
1st DRAFT Version
V0.2
25/01/2016
STATFOR Team
2nd DRAFT Version
STATFOR Team
All Sections and Annexes amended after
the second review process cycle: updated
input data and forecast results after
comments and latest trends.
Edition No.
V1.0
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................. II
DOCUMENT CHARACTERISTICS .................................................................................. V
DOCUMENT APPROVAL ................................................................................................ VI
EDITION HISTORY .......................................................................................................... VI
TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................. VII
1
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 12
1.1
1.2
CONTEXT ...................................................................................................................12
FORECAST METHOD ....................................................................................................12
2
FLIGHT AND SERVICE UNITS TRENDS IN 2015 ........................................ 15
2.1
2.2
2.3
IFR MOVEMENTS ........................................................................................................15
EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNITS ..........................................................................................21
TERMINAL NAVIGATION SERVICE UNITS ........................................................................22
3
FORECAST INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS .................................................. 24
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
ECONOMIC GROWTH ...................................................................................................24
EVENTS AND TRENDS ..................................................................................................29
LOW -COST EFFECTS ...................................................................................................33
LOAD FACTORS ...........................................................................................................34
DEMOGRAPHICS .........................................................................................................34
AIRPORTS ..................................................................................................................36
HIGH-SPEED TRAIN NETWORK .....................................................................................37
EMISSION TRADING SCHEMES .....................................................................................39
AIRLINE SCHEDULES....................................................................................................40
4
GROWTH IN IFR FLIGHTS TO 2022............................................................. 41
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK (2016-2017) ...........................................................................41
MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK (UP TO 2022).........................................................................44
COMPARISON WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST .....................................................................46
HIGH-SPEED TRAIN EFFECT .........................................................................................46
AIRPORT CAPACITY IMPACT .........................................................................................47
5
SERVICE UNIT GROWTH TO 2022 .............................................................. 49
5.1
5.2
EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNITS (TSU) ................................................................................49
TERMINAL NAVIGATION SERVICE UNITS (TNSU) ...........................................................51
6
RISKS TO THE FORECAST GROWTH ........................................................ 53
7
GLOSSARY ................................................................................................... 55
ANNEX 1 TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITIONS ................................................................. 57
ANNEX 2 SUMMARY OF FORECAST FOR ECAC ....................................................... 64
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ANNEX 3 SEVEN-YEAR FLIGHT FORECAST PER STATE (IFR MOVEMENTS) ....... 67
ANNEX 4 SEVEN-YEAR FLIGHT FORECAST PER STATE (GROWTH) ..................... 73
ANNEX 5 TWO-YEAR EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNIT FORECAST PER STATE............. 79
ANNEX 6 SEVEN-YEAR EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE ...... 81
ANNEX 7 SEVEN-YEAR EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE
(GROWTH)...................................................................................................................... 87
ANNEX 8 TERMINAL NAVIGATION SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE ....... 93
ANNEX 9 TERMINAL NAVIGATION SERVICE UNITS GROWTH FORECAST PER
STATE 97
ANNEX 10
REFERENCES ....................................................................................... 101
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LIST OF FIGURES IN MAIN DOCUMENT
Figure 1. Summary of flight forecast for Europe (ECAC). ................................................ iii
Figure 2. Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe. ..................................... iv
Figure 3. Summary of forecast for the terminal navigation service units in the
RP2 Region area........................................................................................................... iv
Figure 4. The components of the STATFOR seven-year forecast................................... 14
Figure 5. 2015 has seen 1.5% more flights then 2014, matching the February
2015 forecast. .............................................................................................................. 16
Figure 6. In 2015, most States have been adding traffic to the Network (vs.
2014)............................................................................................................................. 16
Figure 7. Several events affected overflight traffic in the summer 2015. ....................... 17
Figure 8: In 2015, the United States overtook Russia as the non-European
destination adding the most flights. .......................................................................... 18
Figure 9. 2015 European load factors remained comparable to 2014 record
highs, even improving in over July-October period (Source: AEA). ....................... 19
Figure 10. Low-Cost is the only segment which has grown consistently at a
modest rate of above 5%. ........................................................................................... 20
Figure 11. In 2015; low-cost grew their market share at the expense of
traditional scheduled and charter segments............................................................. 20
Figure 12. In 2015, oil prices averaged below €50 per barrel. ......................................... 20
Figure 13. In 2015, the trend in ticket price changes (air travel) in Europe
increased to nearly 2% more than the year before, on a 12-month trailing
average. Note that, on this graph, ticket prices are deflated by overall
consumer prices ......................................................................................................... 21
Figure 14. Evolution of total service units recorded in CRCO14 area from
January 2011 to December 2015. ............................................................................... 21
Figure 15: Terminal Navigation Service Units generated yearly since 2010 in the
countries involved in SES RP2 and their growth. ..................................................... 23
Figure 16: EU GDP growth remains around 2% across the horizon of the
forecast, with 2017 revised slightly upwards since the OE August 2015
revision used in MTF15b. ........................................................................................... 25
Figure 17: GDP Growth by Traffic Zone............................................................................ 25
Figure 18: GDP Growth by Origin-Destination Zone ........................................................ 26
Figure 19: GDP Growth change per year between this forecast (MTF16) and the
previous one (MTF15b) ............................................................................................... 27
Figure 20: GDP Growth cumulative change per State by 2021 between this
forecast (MTF16) and the previous on (MTF15b) ...................................................... 28
Figure 21: GDP Growth by Traffic Region ........................................................................ 28
Figure 22: GDP Multipliers per Traffic Region Pair .......................................................... 28
Figure 23: GDP Multipliers per Traffic Zone / Traffic Region Pair ................................... 29
Figure 24: Events and Trends assumptions by Traffic Zone .......................................... 31
Figure 25: Low-Cost effects by Traffic Zone .................................................................... 33
Figure 26: Load factors by Traffic Region ........................................................................ 34
Figure 27: Population distribution per Traffic Zone ......................................................... 35
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Figure 28: Population distribution per Traffic Region. .................................................... 36
Figure 29: Propensity to fly per age group. ...................................................................... 36
Figure 30. Airport traffic switch......................................................................................... 37
Figure 31. High-Speed Train Times that change during the forecast. ............................ 38
Figure 32. Summary of the forecast for Europe. .............................................................. 41
Figure 33. Flight forecast details for 2016. ....................................................................... 43
Figure 34. Flight forecast details for 2017. ....................................................................... 43
Figure 35. Average Annual Growth per State, 2022 vs 2015. .......................................... 44
Figure 36. Number of additional movements per day for each State (2022 vs
2015)............................................................................................................................. 45
Figure 37. Average Annual Growth per FAB, 2022 vs 2015. ............................................ 45
Figure 38. For total Europe, current forecast is slightly lower than previous
forecast (dated September 2015), with narrower short-term uncertainty. .............. 46
Figure 39. Impact of High-Speed Train. (Reduction in flights when High-Speed
train network development is taken into account. Note that the HST impact
is assessed on forecasts excluding capacity constraints). ..................................... 47
Figure 40. Impact of airport constraints. (Reduction in IFR flights when airport
constraints are taken into account.) .......................................................................... 48
Figure 41. Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe. .................................. 50
Figure 42. Average annual growth of service units between 2015 and 2022. ................ 50
Figure 43. Comparison 2015-2021 between the current TSU forecast and
September 2015 for CRCO14 Area ............................................................................. 51
Figure 44. Total Terminal Navigation Service Units generated in the RP2 Region
area .............................................................................................................................. 52
Figure 45. TNSU 7-year forecast February 2016 overview – Average annual
growth and estimated additional daily TNSU generated between 2022 and
2015 per TCZ. .............................................................................................................. 52
Figure 46. Map of the European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) Area. ..................... 57
Figure 47. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area. ........................................... 58
Figure 48. Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August 2012. .................................. 58
Figure 49. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics. ........................................ 59
Figure 50. FABs as stipulated by the European Commission......................................... 60
Figure 51. States within SES-RP2 Region in this report (Performance Scheme
Region for the Second Review Period). ..................................................................... 61
Figure 52. List of aerodromes forming the TCZ in RP2. .................................................. 63
Figure 53. Growth in Europe (ECAC) ................................................................................ 64
Figure 54. Flights and growth on main flow categories in Europe (ECAC) .................... 65
Figure 55. Busiest bi-directional region-to-region flows for ECAC ................................ 66
Figure 56. Forecast of the number of IFR Movements (thousands) per State. .............. 67
Figure 57. Forecast of the IFR Movements growth per State. ......................................... 73
Figure 58. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units 2016-2017. ............ 79
Figure 59. Forecast Summary: Annual chargeable en-route service units 20162017. ............................................................................................................................. 80
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Figure 60. Forecast of the total number of en-route service units (thousands)
per State....................................................................................................................... 81
Figure 61. Forecast of the total en-route service units growth per State. ...................... 87
Figure 62. Forecast of the total number of Terminal service units (thousands)
per Terminal Charging Zone. ...................................................................................... 93
Figure 63. Forecast of the total number of Terminal service units (growth) per
Terminal Charging Zone. ............................................................................................ 97
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1
Introduction
1.1
Context
This is the final report on the 7-year forecast, February 2016 edition. This
document has been prepared as part of the revised, more-inclusive forecast
process that was agreed at the 40th session of the Provisional Council in 2013.
The quality of the input data and assumptions for the forecast are of key
importance to producing the best-possible forecast. Therefore the new process
put in place at the end of 2013 aims to encourage comments on the forecast
assumptions from a wide group of Stakeholders.
This final forecast is the last step of the four-month preparation process of the
February 2016 forecast. This forecast is a refinement of the first and second
draft. It includes a review of the forecast inputs and traffic trends up until
January 2016.
This 7-year IFR movements and Service Units forecast replaces the September
2015 report (Ref. 1).
1.2
Forecast Method
For the new forecast process, we have produced a completely revised set of
documentation on the forecast methods (Ref. 2). This documentation describes
the methods at a number of levels of detail, from a two-page summary, to a
function-by-function reference. For convenience of readers, the summary is
reproduced in this section.
EUROCONTROL/STATFOR provides impartial air traffic forecasts, market
analyses and statistics to the ATM community in the widest sense, to improve
understanding of current and future trends, to enable better-informed decision
making and thus to improve network performance. The STATFOR forecast has
been serving European ATM since the 1970s. It is the only air traffic forecast
covering Europe.
STATFOR publishes a forecast of IFR flights and both en-route and terminal
service units for the next seven years in Europe. The main forecast update is
published in February each year. Our focus is on the traffic forecast for States
or larger regions. This influences the modelling choices made in the forecasting
process. Other EUROCONTROL units use this high level forecast to drill down
to the level of airports, control centres, sectors etc.
The number of flights depends on the interaction of supply and demand: an
airline operates a flight between an airport A and an airport B because it has
customers who pay to travel or ship goods from A to B. Supply and demand are
each influenced by a large number of factors like economy, regulation,
demographics, business development, oil prices, high-speed rail. When
forecasting, we use data that describe these factors, and data more directly
about actual and future supply (past flights, and future schedules). Some data
are more relevant to the short-term horizon (e.g., airline schedules) while
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others are used in the medium-term horizon (e.g., demographics). Probably the
three most influential inputs to the forecast are:

Economic growth forecasts obtained from external specialists, and which
in recent years have been very variable; growth has slowed, but there is
nothing in our data to show that flight growth has decoupled from economic
growth;

Regulation, e.g., rules on visas, open skies, airport funding, aviation taxes;

Overflight patterns since, for the majority of States, most of their flights are
overflights. A crisis such as that in Ukraine can easily change the number of
flights by 10% or more in a number of States due to re-routing, even if the
number of flights on the network as a whole is little changed.
Overall, the components of the forecast can be grouped into five elements as in
Figure 4.

An initial annual forecast for the next seven years based on economic,
transport and other trends;

A monthly forecast based on trends, economics and airlines’ plans;

These are merged, and constrained by airport capacities to give the
constrained forecast;

The final step of the flight forecast is to calculate how many flights are
generated in each State, using both routings through airspace observed in
the historical data and recent trends.

The number of service units in a charging zone depends on the number of
flights, the weight of aircraft and, in the en route case, the distance flown.
The two service unit forecasts therefore take the flight forecast as an input
and combine this with time series forecasts of weight and distance as
needed. This gives total service units, from which future chargeable service
units are estimated using the ratio of chargeable/total from the previous
calendar year.
We use a highly-automated and structured process to produce traffic forecasts
and because of the variety of factors and inputs, different forecasting
techniques are used: traditional time series methods to extrapolate historical
patterns, econometric analyses to take into account how economic, social and
operational conditions have an effect on the development of traffic, scenariobased inputs to describe the future (what Europe will be in 10 years’ time?) and
specific data-driven models (e.g., high-speed rail development model). As for
any forecast, the method relies on historical data either for taking a snapshot of
the most recent trends or longer history to calibrate the models.
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Figure 4. The components of the STATFOR seven-year forecast.
Annual forecast based on economic,
omic,
o
mic, transport
transport and
and other
other trends
tre n d s
Passengers
Adjusted
A
djusted ffor
or tthe
he e
effects
ffects o
of:
f:
Emissions
Trading Scheme
Network
Change
High-speed
Train
Low-cost
Market share
All-Cargo
Military
Business
Aviation
Small
airport-pairs
Initial Annual
Forecast
Population
7y
years
ea r s
En-Route Service
Serv
r ice Unit Forecast
Monthly
nthly
n
thly forecast
ffo
o
based on
Trends,
nds,
n
ds, economics
economics and
and plans
p la ns
Monthly Tren
forecast
Zone-pair
Schedule
Up
U
p tto
o2
25
5m
month
o n th
recastability
State-flow
Overf
Overfligh
r ligh
trends
Constrained
airport-pair
forecast
Serv
Service
r ice unit
trend
Weightdistance
Overflight
choices
iices
ces
& trends
ends
e
nds
Overf
Overflight
r light
choices
Final flight
forecast
Overf
Overflight
r light
forecast
Total Serv
Service
r ice
Units
Chargeable
Serv
Service
r ice Units
Terminal Service
Serv
r ice Unit Forecast
Weight
Total Serv
Service
r ice
Units
The future is always uncertain. We capture this uncertainty in the forecast
through three forecast scenarios: low- and high-growth scenarios, with the
most-likely ‘base’ forecast in between. All three scenarios should be considered
as part of the risk management of any decision based on the forecast.
As requested by Stakeholders, we have re-calibrated:

since the February 2014 forecast, the key relationships with economic
growth, including introducing more specific country-pair flow relationships
where these make statistical sense. This re-calibration process is described
in Ref. 2.

since the February 2015 forecast, the key relationships with high-speed
train growth. This re-calibration process is described in Ref 3.

With this forecast we have switched to reporting based on the whole of the
ECAC region in place of the smaller “ESRA08”. So ‘Europe’ in this report
refers to the total of all ECAC member States. For more details, see Annex
1.
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Flight and service units trends in 2015
Europe had 1.5% more flights in 2015 than 2014. There was sustained
growth of almost 2% throughout the summer driven mainly by the lowcost sector, which grew at a rate of 5%. The traditional scheduled sector,
which makes up the majority of European airline traffic, just achieved a
positive growth rate for the year. This growth matched the forecast
published for Europe in February 2015.
Inside Europe several events caused airlines to change their routes,
impacting overflight growth in several States. Some of these events were
carried over from last year – such as (lengthy) airspace closures in
Ukraine and Libya – while others were more recent developments, such
as unit rates increase in Germany. Outside Europe, the USA overtook
Russia as the busiest non-European destination, as Russian traffic
contracted.
2.1
IFR Movements
The overall positive traffic growth trend of 1.7% in 2014 helped the European
carriers to start 2015 more smoothly. In 2015, major European carriers
managed to reduce their losses and even publish a collective increase in
operating profits compared to 2014 (see Ref. 4). The final figure for the year is
not available at the time of writing. However, nearly all major carriers showed
robust passenger growth in 2015 and they benefited from lower fuel prices,
even if this was limited by the strength of the US dollar.
The overall European traffic growth was limited at the start of the year
compared to other months: economic recession in Nordic States, continuation
of the crisis in Ukraine and industrial action. This resulted in limited traffic
growth in the first months of the year.
After summer schedules began, sustained growth was observed: July, August
and September 2015 were, with more than 30,700 flights per day on average,
the busiest on record.
With the start of the winter schedules traffic growth reverted back to lower
rates, between 1% and 2%, in line with the forecast published in September
2015. December traffic hit a 2015 record of 3.5% owing to sustained rates
during the year-end holiday period and an artificial rebound caused by
industrial action in December 2014 (Figure 5).
2015 IFR flight traffic matched the forecast published in February 2015 (as
shown in Figure 5).
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Figure 5. 2015 has seen 1.5% more flights then 2014, matching the February 2015 forecast.
2.1.1
Network contributors
Figure 6 shows the main contributors to the local2 traffic growth for 2015.
Turkey remained the main contributor to traffic growth, adding some 170 daily
flights, followed by the United Kingdom (+140 flights per day). In terms of
percentage increases Spain (+4%) and Greece (+5%) also witnessed traffic
rises. Germany added 80 flights per day (excluding overflights).
Norway, hit by the oil crisis, removed most flights from the network since the
beginning of the year, due to the weakness in its internal traffic and other
arrival/departure major flows, amounting to a loss of around 70 daily flights
from the European network. Ukraine also removed 50 flights a day, mainly due
to the continuation of the crisis which began in 2014.
Figure 6. In 2015, most States have been adding traffic to the Network (vs. 2014).
2
Local traffic refers to all IFR movements excluding overflights.
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Routing aspects
During the first half of 2015 Ukraine’s overflight flows decreased by 64% over
the same period last year following the unavailability of airspace in the State
which started in early 2014. As a result, other States (for example, Bulgaria,
Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Turkey) continued to see
increases in overflights as the flows between Europe and the Middle East/Far
East Asia were re-routed in a more southerly direction. The changes in traffic
patterns are still in place but have dwindling effect as they happened more than
12 months ago. Ukraine recorded further decreases in overflights from
November 2015 following a mutual ban on flights between Russia and Ukraine.
The closure of Libyan airspace in 2014 continued to have a strong impact on
Greece as the flows between Europe and Africa, which had previously crossed
Maltese airspace, shifted eastwards into Greece. From August 2105 onwards
some procedural changes aiming at re-balancing the flows between Malta and
Greece, especially on west-east flows, took effect. Between July and
September 2015, Cyprus recorded strong increases in overflight growth, which
is mainly explained by some traffic increase in flows from/to Israel (up to 25% in
some cases).
In 2015, growth in overflight movements was relatively weak in Germany
(below 2%) compared to some of its neighbours; the Netherlands recorded an
increase in overflights of almost 5%. Germany recorded no change in the
overflight (total) distance flown in 2015 compared with 2014 while its
neighbours to the west recorded positive changes in 2015. The unit rate
increase in Germany is part of the reason behind this. Many flights avoided
Germany or, if this was not possible, minimised their distance flown over the
State.
3
Figure 7. Several events affected overflight traffic in the summer 2015.
3
Summer is referring to May-August 2015 period in this part.
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Extra-European partners
Since the beginning of the year, the USA has returned to being the number one
destination from Europe in terms of number of flights: around 430 departures
per day on average, now larger than the Russian Federation (360 departures
per day on average for the period January to December 2015) as shown in
Figure 8.
This is a return to the situation before 2011 when the USA was the first
destination from Europe, ahead of the Russian Federation. A 19% drop in
flights from/to Russia (caused by the financial crisis in Russia from April 2014)
was recorded on average in 2015, also leading to a reduction in European
overflights (notably on flows between Egypt and Russia). United Arab Emirates
and Morocco were respectively the third and fourth extra-European partners.
Figure 8: In 2015, the United States overtook Russia as the non-European destination
adding the most flights.
Traffic flows from Europe to Tunisia recorded a substantial decline in 2015 (a
22% drop on average compared with 2014) following the terrorist attacks in
March and July. It is now ranked eighth (hence not shown in Figure 8).
2.1.4
Airline industry
In 2015, the load factors of European carriers remained in line with the 2014
(record-breaking) ones on Europe cross-border flows (see Figure 9), with a
noticeable improvement over the period July to October 2015. The drop around
week 48 is a consequence of the November terrorist attacks in Paris. If
passenger growth was hit at the end of the year in France, there was no
noticeable drop in flight growth after mid-November for the State.
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Figure 9. 2015 European load factors remained comparable to 2014 record highs, even
improving in over July-October period (Source: AEA).
Figure 10 shows the traffic development per market segment. Over the January
to December 2015 period, the low-cost segment maintained its dominant
growth position, with a rate of 5.2% and was followed by the traditional
scheduled segment, which grew steadily by 1% in 2015 (vs. 2014).
Part of the low-cost segment’s growth is related to the fact that some traditional
carriers, as part of restructuring, have handed their short-haul journeys to lowcost carriers (see Figure 11). On the growth side, the all-cargo segment posted
just below 1% growth, for the second year in a row.
Business aviation recorded a decrease of 2.6%. Charter (non-scheduled) was
the weakest market segment, with a fall of nearly 9% compared with the period
a year ago. This was mainly due to a decline in traffic to/from Russia and
Tunisia. In addition, the charter segment decrease was also attributed to a
number of aircraft operators moving to a more scheduled operation in 2015,
compared with last year. The reverse is however true with some scheduled
carriers filing their operations as non-scheduled (October).
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Figure 10. Low-Cost is the only segment which has grown consistently at a modest rate of
above 5%.
Figure 11. In 2015; low-cost grew their market share at the expense of traditional
scheduled and charter segments
As Figure 12 shows, oil prices fell below €40 per barrel in December; levels not
seen since the end of 2008 after the start of the economic crisis. The declines
have continued into January. Overall, prices averaged out just below €50 since
the beginning of the year. Fuel prices have consequently been low, with an
average of €465 per tonne in 2015.
Figure 12. In 2015, oil prices averaged below €50 per barrel.
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In spite of falling fuel costs, airline ticket price growth in Europe seems to have
accelerated since the beginning of 2015 (Figure 13). Ticket price inflation has
stood at an average level of 1.2% in 2015. The trough in April 2015 was driven
by Easter.
Figure 13. In 2015, the trend in ticket price changes (air travel) in Europe increased to
nearly 2% more than the year before, on a 12-month trailing average. Note that, on this
graph, ticket prices are deflated by overall consumer prices
2.2
En-route Service Units
In 2015, the total service units (TSU) for the CRCO14 region increased by
4.2% from 123.7 million in the year-ago period to 137.7 million. Such an
increase of 4.2% lies between the base scenario (+3.8%) and the high scenario
(+4.8%) of the forecast published in February 2015.
Figure 14. Evolution of total service units recorded in CRCO14 area from January 2011 to
December 2015.
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Most of the growth happened in the first half of 2015 with growth rates close
to 7% and over during the first three months of the year. Then, they slowed
down from 5.1% in April to 3.6% in July 2015. After July, growth has not been
any greater than the 3.1% observed in September and stood slightly over 2%,
except in December 2015 (+4.5% on December 2014).
The reduction in the growth from July can be explained by the one-year
anniversary of the closure of the Eastern Ukraine airspace that caused major
changes in the South-East axis flows and major growth in a few countries for
2015 such as Bulgaria (17.5%) and Hungary (12%). From August, growth rates
were then back to more traditional values as those that were observed before
this airspace closure. Such TSU growth figures were often greater than growth
of overflights as changes in flows concerned flights from Western-Europe
towards South-East Asia or the Middle-East, which are operated by heavier
aircraft than the traditional fleet seen there. This heavier traffic generated
additional service units even if sometimes, the average distances flown by it
were reduced. For example, in Bulgaria for the one-year period starting in
August 2014 (i.e. August 2014 to July 2015 included), the average weight
coefficient of overflights grew by 9.4% whereas the average distance
accounted for the TSU calculation of these same overflights declined by 1.4%;
this generated TSU growth of 32.6% while overflights were growing by 24.5%
“only”.
As for the German unit rate increase, if flight numbers were only slightly
affected, it may have been one of the causes (amidst of flow changes) of a
decline by around 2% of the average distances flown by its overflights, this
decline being stronger during the summer schedule with a decline of around
2.5% on Summer 2014 (see Section 2.1.2).
2.3
Terminal Navigation Service Units
In 2015, the Terminal Navigation Service Units (TNSU) in the countries that are
part of the second reporting period of the Performance Scheme (SES RP2
area) grew by 3% to reach 7.5 million TNSU, which is at the upper end of the
range of both the February and September TNSU forecasts published in 2015.
This appears to be the first significant growth rate after three years of almost no
growth or decline in TNSU thanks to strong growth of Intra-European flights
and to an on-going trend of increasing weight of aircraft. Note however that the
growth figures are biased due to changes in the airports included in the
Terminal Charging Zones (TCZ) of the countries across the years and,
especially in 2014 with the beginning of the second reporting period (RP2). In
2014 for example, a significant reduction of the number of airports in Italian
TCZ for RP2 has artificially lowered the growth this year compared to 2013.
The way the history for RP1 was reconstructed is detailed in the September
2014 forecast report (see Ref. 5) and the list of airports that were considered
for 2014 and 2015 are defined in Annex 1 (of the respective September
reports). In 2015, four airports were taken out of the Bulgarian TCZ and two
airports were added but the size of these airports should make this change
negligible at SES RP2 area when compared to 2014.
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The full actual TNSU figures are provided in Figure 15.
Figure 15: Terminal Navigation Service Units generated yearly since 2010 in the countries
involved in SES RP2 and their growth.
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Forecast inputs and assumptions
This section describes in detail the many forecast input assumptions,
including those on economic growth. Section 4 describes how they
influence the forecast.
The improved forecast process described in Section 1 enabled the use of the
most up-to-date forecast inputs and assumptions reflecting the main drivers
and influential factors over the next 7 years: economic growth (Section 3.1),
events and trends (Section 3.2), low-cost traffic development (Section 3.3),
load factors evolution (Section 3.4), demographics and propensity to fly
(Section 3.5), airport capacity (Section 3.6), high-speed rail network
development (Section 3.7) and airline schedules (Section 3.8).
As usual, there are three forecast scenarios, presented in this 7-year forecast:

High: based on assumptions of strong economic growth, stronger
growth of low‐cost market segment, stronger effect of events (e.g. EU
accession) and slower development of high‐speed rail; this stronger
growth goes with weaker load factors4;

Low: based on assumptions of weak economic growth, weaker growth
in low‐cost market segment, weaker (and later) effect of events (e.g. EU
accession) and quicker development of high‐speed rail; this weaker
growth means stronger load factors which are used to absorb the flight
demand;

Base: the most‐likely of the 3 scenarios, representing an intermediate
point between high and low.
The specific factors which are used in the scenarios are described below. The
first three have the biggest effect on the forecast. Details of how they have this
effect are in the methodology document (Ref. 2).
3.1
Economic growth
Forecasts of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) are provided by Oxford
Economics Ltd (OE) for most of the States. For some States, when
recommended by Stakeholders, other GDP forecasts are used. In particular, an
official government forecast (October 2015) has been used for Germany. All
other States or region GDP forecast data in this report originate from the
January 2016 update of the OE forecast.
The high‐ and low‐growth scenarios are based on fixed offsets5 from these
forecasts.
4
See Section 3.4.
+1%, -1% for early years and big States, +1.5%, -1.5% for early years and small States, +0.5%, -0.5%
for late years and big States, +0.8%, -0.8% for late years and small States.
5
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EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
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Economic forecast for Europe
The healthy consumption that led to last year’s recovery remains largely in
place and the EU28 economy is expected to record another healthy expansion
in 2016. Bright consumer spending prospects on the back of low oil prices, low
inflation and an improving labor market will support growth this year. Looking
forward, the EU28 economy is expected to maintain that pace of growth in
2017. Risks, of course, remain and are described in section 6.
Figure 16 illustrates how little the economic outlook has changed for EU since
the preparation of the September flight forecast (indicated as MTF15b). The
economic outlook for EU has been slightly revised upwards in 2017 in the OE
January release (indicated as MTF16).
Figure 16: EU GDP growth remains around 2% across the horizon of the forecast, with
2017 revised slightly upwards since the OE August 2015 revision used in MTF15b.
3.1.2
Details per State
The GDP forecasts are shown for specific states in Figure 17 and Figure 18.
For all other states, the economic growth of the traffic region is used. Traffic
regions are listed in Figure 48, and their economic growth in Figure 21.
Figure 17: GDP Growth by Traffic Zone
Source: 2005-2022 from Oxford Economics Ltd (Jan 2016)
Comments: Real GDP Growth in Euro.
Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 18/01/2016
Actuals
2013 2014 2015 2016
Albania
1.3% 2.2% 2.4% 3.1%
Armenia
3.5% 3.4% 2.2% 3.1%
Austria
0.3% 0.5% 0.8% 1.2%
Azerbaijan
5.8% 2.7% 3.3% 2.6%
Belarus
1.2% 1.6% -3.2% -1.0%
Belgium/Luxembourg
0.0% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
2.5% 1.1% 2.0% 3.0%
Bulgaria
0.9% 1.7% 2.7% 2.6%
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2017
3.3%
2.7%
1.8%
3.5%
2.1%
1.6%
3.2%
3.5%
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2018
3.4%
3.0%
1.8%
3.8%
2.9%
1.6%
3.1%
3.6%
Base
2019
3.4%
3.8%
1.8%
4.5%
4.3%
1.6%
3.1%
3.6%
2020
3.2%
4.6%
1.7%
4.9%
4.2%
1.6%
3.1%
3.4%
2021
3.2%
4.6%
1.7%
4.9%
4.2%
1.6%
3.1%
3.4%
2022
3.2%
4.6%
1.7%
4.9%
4.2%
1.6%
3.1%
3.4%
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Canary Islands
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
FYROM
Finland
France
Georgia
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lisbon FIR
Lithuania
Malta
Moldova
Morocco
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Romania
Santa Maria FIR
Serbia&Montenegro
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
UK
Ukraine
EU28
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
2013
-1.7%
-0.8%
-5.9%
-0.5%
-0.2%
1.6%
2.7%
-1.1%
0.7%
3.3%
0.4%
-3.1%
2.0%
3.9%
1.4%
-1.8%
3.0%
-1.1%
3.5%
4.0%
9.4%
4.7%
-0.4%
1.0%
1.3%
3.1%
-1.1%
2.6%
1.4%
-1.0%
-1.7%
1.2%
1.8%
4.2%
2.2%
-0.0%
0.2%
Actuals
2014
1.4%
-0.4%
-2.5%
2.0%
1.3%
2.9%
3.8%
-0.4%
0.2%
4.4%
1.6%
0.7%
3.6%
1.8%
5.2%
-0.4%
2.4%
0.9%
3.0%
4.1%
4.8%
2.4%
1.0%
2.2%
3.4%
2.9%
0.9%
-1.8%
2.5%
2.9%
1.4%
2.4%
1.9%
2.9%
2.9%
-6.8%
1.4%
2015 2016 2017
3.2% 2.9% 2.4%
1.5% 1.0% 1.6%
1.1% 1.4% 2.0%
4.4% 2.5% 2.8%
1.2% 1.9% 2.1%
1.6% 2.8% 3.5%
3.0% 3.9% 3.9%
0.0% 0.3% 1.1%
1.1% 1.5% 1.7%
2.2% 2.8% 4.4%
1.7% 1.8% 1.5%
-0.3% -2.2% -0.1%
2.5% 2.0% 2.2%
4.0% 3.0% 2.8%
6.9% 4.8% 3.5%
0.7% 1.4% 1.2%
2.7% 2.8% 4.2%
1.5% 1.6% 1.4%
1.6% 3.2% 3.4%
5.1% 4.0% 3.0%
-1.0% 1.5% 3.8%
4.5% 2.8% 3.8%
1.9% 2.1% 2.3%
2.1% 0.8% 1.5%
3.5% 3.7% 3.6%
3.7% 3.9% 3.5%
1.5% 1.6% 1.4%
0.5% 1.5% 2.0%
3.4% 3.2% 3.0%
2.6% 2.5% 2.8%
3.2% 2.9% 2.4%
3.3% 2.8% 2.4%
0.7% 1.0% 1.9%
3.5% 3.0% 3.4%
2.2% 2.4% 2.5%
-11% 3.0% 3.0%
1.8% 2.0% 2.1%
2018
2.3%
1.3%
2.2%
2.3%
2.0%
4.0%
3.7%
1.5%
1.7%
5.0%
1.6%
1.1%
2.1%
2.5%
3.4%
1.1%
4.8%
1.2%
3.5%
2.5%
4.6%
4.0%
1.8%
1.8%
3.2%
2.9%
1.2%
3.5%
3.1%
3.3%
2.3%
1.9%
2.0%
3.5%
2.2%
3.0%
1.9%
Base
2019
2.1%
1.9%
2.2%
2.3%
1.9%
4.0%
3.3%
1.7%
1.7%
5.1%
1.6%
2.0%
2.1%
2.5%
3.3%
0.9%
4.5%
1.2%
3.3%
2.5%
4.4%
4.1%
1.8%
1.9%
3.1%
3.2%
1.2%
3.5%
3.3%
3.1%
2.1%
1.9%
1.7%
3.6%
2.2%
2.5%
1.7%
2020
1.8%
2.0%
1.9%
2.5%
1.8%
3.8%
2.9%
2.0%
1.5%
4.5%
1.6%
3.2%
2.2%
2.5%
3.2%
0.9%
4.1%
1.1%
2.4%
2.1%
4.0%
4.2%
1.7%
2.0%
2.9%
3.7%
1.1%
3.3%
2.6%
3.1%
1.8%
1.8%
1.5%
3.3%
2.5%
2.5%
1.7%
2021
1.8%
2.0%
1.9%
2.5%
1.8%
3.8%
2.9%
2.0%
1.5%
4.5%
1.6%
3.2%
2.2%
2.5%
3.2%
0.9%
4.1%
1.1%
2.4%
2.1%
4.0%
4.2%
1.7%
2.0%
2.9%
3.7%
1.1%
3.3%
2.6%
3.1%
1.8%
1.8%
1.5%
3.3%
2.5%
2.5%
1.7%
2022
1.8%
2.0%
1.9%
2.5%
1.8%
3.8%
2.9%
2.0%
1.5%
4.5%
1.6%
3.2%
2.2%
2.5%
3.2%
0.9%
4.1%
1.1%
2.4%
2.1%
4.0%
4.2%
1.7%
2.0%
2.9%
3.7%
1.1%
3.3%
2.6%
3.1%
1.8%
1.8%
1.5%
3.3%
2.5%
2.5%
1.7%
Figure 18: GDP Growth by Origin-Destination Zone
Source: 1993-2004 from STATFOR records. 2005 onwards from Oxford Economics Ltd, Jan16.
Comments: Real GDP Growth in local currency.
Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 18/01/2016
Actual
2013 2014
Base
2015
2016
2017
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Brazil
2.7% 0.1% -3.1% -2.0% 0.9% 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
China
7.7% 7.3%
6.9%
6.3% 5.8% 5.5% 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1%
India
6.4% 7.1%
7.2%
7.4% 7.2% 7.0% 6.7% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Israel
3.4% 2.6%
2.7%
3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.9% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4%
South Africa
2.2% 1.5%
1.5%
1.8% 2.4% 2.8% 3.0% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
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FEBRUARY 2016
Most of the GDP forecasts per State remain little changed by 20216. Figure 19
shows the order of magnitude of the forecast revision by year.
Figure 19: GDP Growth change per year between this forecast (MTF16) and the previous
one (MTF15b)
Most of the significant revisions take place in the first years (2016 to 2017) of
the horizon. More specifically in 2016, Belarus and Moldova have seen their
GDP forecast revised downwards in light of Russia’s weaker-than-expected
economic recovery. To a lesser extent, Germany, France and UK are also
expected to grow more slowly. While Armenia’s outlook is also dependent on
economic growth in Russia, a stronger performance in agriculture than
originally foreseen has explained the upward revision of their GDP in 2016.
Greece and Malta were also lifted upwards (by +1.4 pp and 1.2 pp respectively)
thanks to better performance.
Figure 20 shows the cumulated growth differences by order of increasing
change over 7 years. By 2021, Greece, Malta, Ukraine and Ireland are
expected to grow faster than previously expected7. On the other hand,
Lithuania, Armenia and Finland have seen their economic outlook revised
downwards.
6
2021 is the common year between this forecast (MTF16 covering 2016-2022) and the previous
forecast (MTF15b covering 2015-2021)
7
The German GDP forecast has also been increased since last forecast but this is due to the change in
the source: OEF in the September 2015 forecast and the official government forecast in this February
2016 forecast.
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
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FEBRUARY 2016
Figure 20: GDP Growth cumulative change per State by 2021 between this forecast
(MTF16) and the previous on (MTF15b)
Continued weakness in oil prices and prospects that they will recover slowly in
2016 are making the Russian economy more vulnerable. The traffic region
‘Other Europe’ in Figure 21 includes Russia which has been consequently
revised downwards since the latest forecast. As of 2017, the Russian economy
is expected to gradually recover.
Figure 21: GDP Growth by Traffic Region
Source: 2005 onwards updated from Oxford Economics Jan16
Comments: Real GDP Growth.
Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 18/01/2016
Actual
2013 2014 2015 2016
Asia/Pacific
2.4% 1.6% 1.7% 2.2%
ESRA East
1.2% 2.7% 3.3% 3.1%
ESRA Mediterranean
-0.8% 0.8% 1.9% 1.9%
ESRA North-West
0.9% 1.6% 1.7% 2.0%
Mid-Atlantic
1.8% 2.3% 2.6% 2.8%
Middle-East
2.2% 2.1% 1.9% 2.6%
North Atlantic
1.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4%
North-Africa
-4.5% -5.3% 0.2% 2.4%
Other Europe
1.7% 1.0% -2.8% -0.4%
South-Atlantic
3.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8%
Southern Africa
6.3% 6.2% 4.7% 5.3%
2017
2.5%
3.2%
1.9%
2.1%
3.3%
3.0%
2.6%
3.4%
1.7%
2.8%
5.7%
2018
2.4%
2.9%
1.9%
1.9%
3.4%
3.2%
2.4%
4.2%
2.1%
3.6%
5.8%
Base
2019
2.3%
2.9%
1.8%
1.7%
3.0%
3.5%
2.3%
4.7%
2.3%
3.7%
6.1%
2020
2.0%
2.8%
1.8%
1.7%
3.0%
3.7%
2.0%
5.4%
2.0%
3.2%
5.5%
2021
2.0%
2.8%
1.8%
1.7%
3.0%
3.7%
2.0%
5.4%
2.0%
3.2%
5.5%
2022
2.0%
2.8%
1.8%
1.7%
3.0%
3.7%
2.0%
5.4%
2.0%
3.2%
5.5%
GDP multipliers or “elasticities” convert economic growth into growth in
passenger numbers. The multipliers per traffic region pairs (see Figure 22) and
the multipliers per traffic zone / traffic region pairs (see Figure 23) are the same
as those used in the September 2015 forecast (Ref. 1).
Figure 22: GDP Multipliers per Traffic Region Pair
Source: STATFOR Analysis and modelling
Comments: MTF16 Inputs. See Doc499 for discussion.
Units: Multiplier (Elasticity). Data last updated: 14/12/2015
Note: Elasticity reduced by 1.1 for all domestic flights within States in TRs: 60 61 62.
ESRA
ESRA
ESRA
Other
Asia /
North
NorthMediterran
East
Europe
Pacific
Atlantic
West
ean
ESRA North-West
1.7
2.2
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.3
ESRA Mediterranean
2.2
3.1
3.4
2.5
2.5
1.7
ESRA East
3.0
3.4
2.9
2.7
3.5
.
Other Europe
2.5
2.5
2.7
3.4
2.8
.
Asia/Pacific
2.0
2.5
3.5
2.8
.
.
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
MidAtlantic
SouthAtlantic
1.1
1.4
.
.
.
2.7
3.3
.
.
.
Released Issue
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FEBRUARY 2016
ESRA
NorthWest
1.3
1.1
2.7
2.2
1.5
2.2
North Atlantic
Mid-Atlantic
South-Atlantic
North-Africa
Southern Africa
Middle-East
ESRA
Mediterran
ean
1.7
1.4
3.3
2.6
3.0
3.2
ESRA
East
Other
Europe
Asia /
Pacific
North
Atlantic
MidAtlantic
SouthAtlantic
.
.
.
3.1
.
2.6
.
.
.
3.5
.
3.5
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
0.9
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Figure 23: GDP Multipliers per Traffic Zone / Traffic Region Pair
Source: STATFOR Analysis and modelling
Comments: GDP elasticity per TZ2 flow
Units: Multiplier (Elasticity). Data last updated: 21/01/2015
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Italy
Lisbon
FIR
Spain
Tunisia
Turkey
UK
3.2
Belgium
/Luxemb
ourg
Bulgaria
France
Germany
Greece
Lisbon
FIR
Turkey
Asia /
Pacific
North
Atlantic
MidAtlantic
Southern
Africa
MiddleEast
.
.
.
.
1.6
.
1.1
.
.
.
.
1.7
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
2.2
.
.
.
.
.
1.1
.
.
.
0.3
.
2.5
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
0.9
.
.
.
.
.
.
0.7
.
.
.
.
.
0.8
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
3.0
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.6
1.0
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
0.3
.
.
.
1.2
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
2.1
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
3.4
2.1
Events and Trends
The ‘events and trends’ assumptions consist of adjustments to arrival,
departure, internal, overflight traffic (IFR movements). The assumptions are
listed in Figure 24, where they are expressed as 'cumulative' change: so a 1.01
figure in the year 2016 only would mean increase growth by 1% in 2016 and
decrease it in 2017 (with a total cumulative effect of 0 over the full period of the
forecast).
The forecast has taken into account the following events falling into the 7-year
horizon:

Sport events: EURO 2016 and EURO 2020

Change in Russian travel patterns as well as recent event affecting
Turkey

Adverse travel advice for North-African States (Tunisia and Egypt)

Potential changes in travel demand in response to recent events
affecting positively South-Western European countries (Spain, Canary
Islands and Portugal) as well as Greece and Bulgaria.

Impact of the increased fee imposed by the Italian Government and the
new fee planned by the Norwegian Government on all departing flights
(domestic and international flights).
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
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3.2.1
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Sport events
EURO2016 (European football cup) to be held in France from 10 June to 10
July 2016 (9 sites) is likely to have a small impact on annual traffic in France. In
accordance with estimates from the DGAC/France, STATFOR derived
expected impact based on the EURO2008 and EURO2012 historical data.
French Arrivals/Departures and Internal flows are expected to see 0.1% and
0.08% additional traffic respectively.
EURO2020 (European football cup) to be held in 13 different European
countries (Azerbaijan, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy,
Netherlands, Romania, Russia, Scotland, Spain, UK holding the final and semifinals) during the middle of 2020 is likely to have a small impact on traffic in
those countries. We derived expected impact based on the EURO2008 (coorganised by Austria and Switzerland) historical data. Since most of the extra
flights are generated during the final and semi-finals, 80% of the total impact
was attributed to the UK. The rest of the impact was split between the other
countries. The adjusted factor is too small to be noticed in Figure 24 (it shows
as 1.0).
3.2.2
Change in Russian travel patterns as well as recent event affecting
Turkey
For Turkey, immediate prospects for tourism are likely to be affected by the
recent events.
Currently there is no obvious indication as to how the soured relationship with
Russia will be resolved. Knowing that Russians account for 13% of all foreign
visitors to Turkey, it is likely that the Turkish tourism industry will be affected by
the ban on charter flights between Russia and Turkey with advice to Russian
tour operators not to sell any Turkey holidays to Russian citizens.
Quite apart from the Russian factor, the ongoing political challenges in the
region, and concerns about security will continue to have a dampening effect
on tourism. Much will depend on travel advice given by individual governments.
To account for this, an assumption has been developed to reduce the growth of
the arrivals/departures until the end of the forecast by 1.5% compared to the
(unadjusted) growth foreseen by the model.
3.2.3
Adverse travel advice for North-African States (Tunisia and Egypt)
The adverse travel advice both for Tunisia and Egypt following various terrorist
attacks are affecting tourism. To account for this, an assumption has been
made for Tunisia and Egypt to reduce the growth of the arrivals/departures until
the end of the forecast by respectively 20% and 25% compared to the growth
foreseen by the statistical model (similar to the reduction in Egypt after the
events of 2010).
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
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3.2.4
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Potential changes in travel demand in response to recent events
Tourism affected by the previous two events will be looking for alternatives.
Information received from tour operators as well as aircraft operators have
been used to create local adjustment for the Winter or Summer 2016 in Spain,
Canary Islands, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria and Croatia. The assumptions vary
by scenarios.
The net effects on the number of flights in Europe of these three previous set of
events (Sections 3.2.2, 3.2.3 and 3.2.4) is roughly zero.
3.2.5
Italian and Norwegian fee
Italian authorities increased in January 2016 its Council Tax amounting to an
extra €2.5 per passenger. Air travelers are now paying a €10 tax each time
they depart from airports near Rome and €9 from other Italian airports.
The Norwegian government has decided to (re-)introduce a fee for all
passengers on flights departing from Norwegian airports (domestic and
international flights). The size of the fee is 80 NOK, approximately €8, plus 10%
VAT on the fee per passenger. The fee is likely to start from 1st of April this
year.
Considering an average ticket price of €180 and a price elasticity of -1, the
estimated negative impacts on all departs and internal flights are as follows8:
 Italy: - 1.4%
 Norway: -5%
Figure 24 gives an overview of the annual events and trends assumption by
Traffic Zone.
Figure 24: Events and Trends assumptions by Traffic Zone
9
Source: STATFOR analysis and modelling
Units: Growth index (Baseline Year=1.0). Data last updated: 01/03/2016
2016
8
9
Austria
Total: Arr/Dep
Azerbaijan
Total: Arr/Dep
Belgium/Luxembourg
Total: Arr/Dep
Bulgaria
Total: Arr/Dep
Canary Islands
Total: Arr/Dep
Croatia
Total: Arr/Dep
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.045
1.030
1.015
1.018
1.012
1.006
1.011
1.008
1.004
2017
0.998
0.998
0.998
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.045
1.030
1.015
1.018
1.012
1.006
1.011
1.008
1.004
2018
0.998
0.998
0.998
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.045
1.030
1.015
1.018
1.012
1.006
1.011
1.008
1.004
2019
0.998
0.998
0.998
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.045
1.030
1.015
1.018
1.012
1.006
1.011
1.008
1.004
2020
0.998
0.998
0.998
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.045
1.030
1.015
1.018
1.012
1.006
1.011
1.008
1.004
2021
0.998
0.998
0.998
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.045
1.030
1.015
1.018
1.012
1.006
1.011
1.008
1.004
2022
0.998
0.998
0.998
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.045
1.030
1.015
1.018
1.012
1.006
1.011
1.008
1.004
Same scenario for the Base and Low scenario. No impact foreseen for the High scenario.
Values 1.000 hide adjustments significant for one or two months, but not at an annual level.
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
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FEBRUARY 2016
Denmark
Total: Arr/Dep
Egypt
Total: Arr/Dep
Estonia
Total: Arr/Dep
France
Total: Internal
Total: Arr/Dep
Germany
Total: Arr/Dep
Greece
Total: Internal
Total: Arr/Dep
Hungary
Total: Arr/Dep
Ireland
Total: Arr/Dep
Italy
Total: Internal
Total: Arr/Dep
Lisbon FIR
Total: Arr/Dep
Netherlands
Total: Arr/Dep
Norway
Total: Internal
Total: Arr/Dep
Romania
Total: Arr/Dep
Spain
Total: Internal
Total: Arr/Dep
Tunisia
Total: Arr/Dep
Turkey
Total: Arr/Dep
UK
Total: Arr/Dep
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
2016
2017
2018
2019
.
.
.
0.875
0.750
0.625
1.033
1.033
1.033
1.002
1.001
1.000
1.002
1.001
1.001
.
.
.
1.057
1.038
1.019
1.056
1.038
1.019
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.000
0.997
0.997
1.000
0.998
0.998
1.034
1.023
1.011
1.029
1.029
1.029
1.000
0.988
0.988
1.000
0.994
0.994
.
.
.
1.019
1.013
1.006
1.044
1.029
1.015
0.900
0.800
0.700
0.993
0.985
0.978
0.986
0.986
0.986
.
.
.
0.875
0.750
0.625
1.033
1.033
1.033
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.057
1.038
1.019
1.056
1.038
1.019
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.000
0.986
0.986
1.000
0.993
0.993
1.034
1.023
1.011
1.029
1.029
1.029
1.025
0.975
0.975
1.000
0.975
0.975
.
.
.
1.019
1.013
1.006
1.044
1.029
1.015
0.900
0.800
0.700
0.993
0.985
0.978
0.986
0.986
0.986
.
.
.
0.875
0.750
0.625
1.033
1.033
1.033
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.057
1.038
1.019
1.056
1.038
1.019
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.000
0.986
0.986
1.000
0.993
0.993
1.034
1.023
1.011
1.029
1.029
1.029
1.025
0.975
0.975
1.000
0.975
0.975
.
.
.
1.019
1.013
1.006
1.044
1.029
1.015
0.900
0.800
0.700
0.993
0.985
0.978
0.986
0.986
0.986
.
.
.
0.875
0.750
0.625
1.033
1.033
1.033
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.057
1.038
1.019
1.056
1.038
1.019
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.000
0.986
0.986
1.000
0.993
0.993
1.034
1.023
1.011
1.029
1.029
1.029
1.025
0.975
0.975
1.000
0.975
0.975
.
.
.
1.019
1.013
1.006
1.044
1.029
1.015
0.900
0.800
0.700
0.993
0.985
0.978
0.986
0.986
0.986
Edition: 15/12/17-52
2020
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.875
0.750
0.625
1.033
1.033
1.033
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.057
1.038
1.019
1.056
1.038
1.019
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.986
0.986
1.000
0.993
0.993
1.034
1.023
1.011
1.029
1.029
1.029
1.025
0.975
0.975
1.000
0.975
0.975
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.019
1.013
1.006
1.044
1.029
1.015
0.900
0.800
0.700
0.993
0.985
0.978
0.987
0.987
0.986
2021
2022
.
.
.
0.875
0.750
0.625
1.033
1.033
1.033
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.057
1.038
1.019
1.056
1.038
1.019
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.000
0.986
0.986
1.000
0.993
0.993
1.034
1.023
1.011
1.029
1.029
1.029
1.025
0.975
0.975
1.000
0.975
0.975
.
.
.
1.019
1.013
1.006
1.044
1.029
1.015
0.900
0.800
0.700
0.993
0.985
0.978
0.986
0.986
0.986
.
.
.
0.875
0.750
0.625
1.033
1.033
1.033
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.057
1.038
1.019
1.056
1.038
1.019
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.000
0.986
0.986
1.000
0.993
0.993
1.034
1.023
1.011
1.029
1.029
1.029
1.025
0.975
0.975
1.000
0.975
0.975
.
.
.
1.019
1.013
1.006
1.044
1.029
1.015
0.900
0.800
0.700
0.993
0.985
0.978
0.986
0.986
0.986
Released Issue
32
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
3.3
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Low-Cost effects
The additional flight movements generated by low-cost carrier growth are
represented by the input assumptions given in Figure 25. The figure shows the
actual (based on 2015 data) and future low-cost market share for each
scenario, and the additional growth of total traffic over the horizon that this lowcost growth will generate.
Figure 25: Low-Cost effects by Traffic Zone
Source: STATFOR Analysis and modelling
Comments: Represents additional growth for Low-Cost, but only the baseline year is a true statistic for low-cost market
share (source: STATFOR).
Units: Percentage Additional Growth Due to Low-Cost Growth. Data last updated: 14/12/2015
Albania
Armenia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Belgium/Luxembourg
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Canary Islands
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
FYROM
Finland
France
Georgia
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lisbon FIR
Lithuania
Malta
Moldova
Morocco
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Romania
Santa Maria FIR
Serbia&Montenegro
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
UK
Ukraine
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Actual
2015
3%
3%
22%
0%
0%
17%
23%
20%
48%
24%
29%
29%
20%
18%
41%
11%
21%
15%
32%
27%
43%
14%
36%
39%
72%
35%
40%
31%
6%
22%
24%
21%
36%
26%
8%
10%
30%
4%
50%
19%
17%
29%
43%
6%
Low
2022
3%
3%
21%
0%
0%
16%
22%
19%
48%
23%
28%
28%
19%
17%
38%
10%
20%
15%
32%
26%
42%
13%
35%
37%
55%
34%
39%
30%
6%
20%
23%
20%
35%
25%
7%
9%
29%
3%
50%
19%
16%
28%
42%
5%
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Base
2022
5%
6%
26%
2%
2%
21%
27%
24%
51%
28%
37%
37%
24%
26%
43%
16%
25%
18%
33%
31%
49%
18%
40%
42%
65%
39%
44%
39%
8%
33%
28%
25%
46%
30%
8%
15%
37%
12%
52%
22%
21%
33%
46%
11%
High
2022
8%
7%
32%
5%
5%
27%
33%
30%
56%
34%
47%
47%
30%
36%
48%
21%
31%
23%
34%
37%
57%
23%
45%
47%
75%
44%
49%
49%
11%
48%
34%
31%
59%
35%
9%
20%
45%
22%
54%
26%
27%
38%
49%
17%
Released Issue
33
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
3.4
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Load factors
Assumptions about the development of load factors are based on STATFOR
analysis of historical data from the Association of European Airlines (AEA).
Forecasts are been made using the recent trends shown in the annual data.
These are used as inputs to the forecast, and are shown in Figure 26.
The load factors forecast is based on the previous trend but it is combined with
assumptions about maximum limits that can be maintained by the airlines in the
medium-term. The baseline scenario load factors in 2022 are relatively high,
between 75% and 90% depending on the flow and scenario. The forecast
assumes that a maximum of around 85% is feasible for short-haul, and 90% for
long-haul.
Figure 26: Load factors by Traffic Region
Source: Actual: AEA (STAR15). Forecast: STATFOR analysis and modelling.
Comments: 2015 estimated on weighted avg (ASK), 2016- exponential smoothing projection.
Units: Percentage Load Factor for this Traffic Region. Data last updated: 13/01/2016
Actual
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Low
Base
High
2022
2022
2022
Asia/Pacific
80.7% 83.2% 80.9% 80.4% 83.4% 79.9% 81.4% 81.8% 82.7% 83.0% 87.8% 85.2% 82.6%
ESRA East
68.6% 69.2% 67.9% 68.1% 70.1% 72.1% 73.7% 74.7% 76.0% 77.2% 85.0% 83.0% 80.8%
ESRA Mediterranean
68.6% 69.2% 67.9% 68.1% 70.1% 72.1% 73.7% 74.7% 76.0% 77.2% 85.0% 83.0% 80.8%
ESRA North-West
68.6% 69.2% 67.9% 68.1% 70.1% 72.1% 73.7% 74.7% 76.0% 77.2% 85.0% 83.0% 80.8%
Mid-Atlantic
82.1% 84.4% 83.4% 81.7% 82.7% 82.4% 83.9% 84.1% 85.1% 86.0% 90.0% 89.0% 87.1%
Middle-East
70.9% 73.8% 74.0% 69.5% 71.5% 70.1% 71.6% 73.1% 74.9% 75.4% 80.0% 77.9% 74.9%
North Atlantic
81.5% 82.2% 81.4% 82.7% 84.0% 83.1% 84.8% 85.6% 85.3% 85.0% 90.0% 88.6% 86.4%
North-Africa
68.5% 69.9% 70.9% 68.4% 70.7% 68.0% 72.4% 71.6% 71.4% 75.0% 79.8% 77.0% 74.2%
Other Europe
68.6% 69.2% 67.9% 68.1% 70.1% 72.1% 73.7% 74.7% 76.0% 77.2% 85.0% 83.0% 80.8%
South-Atlantic
86.3% 85.0% 81.1% 80.2% 85.0% 85.0% 84.7% 85.1% 84.2% 82.7% 90.0% 87.1% 83.6%
Southern Africa
78.0% 79.2% 79.1% 77.7% 77.3% 77.7% 78.6% 79.8% 80.1% 77.8% 82.0% 80.1% 78.1%
It could be argued that load factors for other market segments (e.g. regional or
low‐cost carriers) are different from those provided by the AEA. However, in the
model, it is relative change from the start to the end of the forecast that is most
important (see Ref. 2). We assume that the relative changes in load factors for
traditional carriers will be similar for other segments.
3.5
Demographics
The demography model combines the evolution of population age structure
with the age structure of the passengers. The population data are based on the
2015 United Nations (UN) population forecast update which is the last
available. The input data are shown at traffic zone level in Figure 27 and at
traffic region level in Figure 28.
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
34
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Figure 27: Population distribution per Traffic Zone
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World
Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision
Comments: Only the population age distributions, not numbers (in 000s) are used.
Units: Percentage of TZ population in this age range. Data last updated: 11/12/2015
Actual
Base
2015
2025
Age Age Age
Age Age Age 25
35
45 Age Age Age
0 to 15 to 20 to to
to
to 55 to 60 to 65 to Age
14
19
24
34
44
54
59
64
74
75+
Age Age
Age Age Age Age 35
45 Age Age Age
0 to 15 to 20 to 25 to to
to 55 to 60 to 65 to Age
14
19
24
34
44
54
59
64
74
75+
Albania
19% 8.9% 9.4% 14% 11% 14% 6.6% 5.4% 7.4% 5.0% 19% 5.1% 6.2% 17% 13% 11% 6.0% 6.5% 10% 6.5%
Armenia
18% 5.9% 8.5% 18% 12% 13% 7.3% 5.5% 4.9% 6.0% 18% 6.1% 5.0% 14% 17% 12% 5.3% 7.1% 11% 4.9%
Austria
14% 5.4% 6.3% 13% 13% 16% 6.9% 5.4% 10% 8.7% 14% 4.6% 5.0% 12% 13% 13% 8.0% 7.6% 11% 11%
Azerbaijan
22% 7.2% 9.3% 19% 13% 14% 5.4% 4.4% 2.8% 2.9% 24% 5.8% 5.5% 15% 17% 12% 5.5% 6.4% 7.3% 2.1%
Belarus
16% 4.6% 6.7% 16% 14% 15% 7.7% 6.3% 7.0% 7.0% 18% 5.4% 4.8% 12% 16% 14% 6.1% 7.1% 11% 6.1%
Belgium/ Luxembourg
17% 5.5% 6.1% 13% 13% 15% 6.7% 5.9% 9.2% 8.8% 17% 5.7% 5.5% 12% 13% 13% 6.7% 6.6% 11% 9.9%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
13% 5.8% 6.0% 15% 14% 15% 7.5% 6.9% 8.6% 6.8% 13% 4.8% 4.5% 12% 16% 15% 6.8% 7.7% 13% 8.1%
Bulgaria
14% 4.5% 5.2% 14% 15% 14% 7.0% 6.9% 12% 8.3% 15% 5.3% 4.5% 9.9% 14% 15% 7.1% 6.5% 12% 10%
Canary Islands
15% 4.5% 4.8% 12% 17% 16% 6.8% 5.6% 9.4% 9.4% 13% 5.3% 5.1% 9.7% 12% 17% 7.9% 7.4% 11% 11%
Croatia
15% 5.7% 5.5% 13% 14% 14% 7.3% 7.0% 9.9% 9.0% 14% 5.3% 5.0% 12% 14% 14% 6.5% 7.0% 13% 9.9%
Cyprus
17% 6.5% 8.4% 17% 15% 13% 6.0% 5.1% 7.6% 5.3% 16% 5.5% 6.2% 15% 16% 14% 6.0% 5.7% 9.4% 6.9%
Czech Republic
15% 4.3% 5.8% 14% 17% 13% 6.3% 6.9% 11% 7.0% 15% 5.4% 4.7% 10% 14% 17% 6.4% 6.0% 12% 10%
Denmark
17% 6.3% 6.8% 12% 13% 14% 6.3% 5.7% 11% 7.5% 16% 5.9% 6.0% 13% 12% 12% 7.1% 6.3% 10% 11%
Estonia
16% 4.2% 6.1% 14% 14% 13% 6.8% 6.5% 9.5% 9.3% 16% 6.0% 4.8% 10% 15% 14% 6.0% 6.6% 12% 10%
FYROM
17% 6.6% 7.3% 15% 15% 14% 6.6% 6.2% 7.6% 4.8% 16% 5.3% 5.9% 14% 15% 14% 6.8% 6.2% 11% 5.8%
Finland
16% 5.5% 6.3% 13% 12% 13% 6.7% 6.7% 12% 8.7% 16% 5.6% 5.3% 12% 13% 12% 6.3% 6.3% 12% 12%
France
18% 5.9% 5.7% 12% 13% 13% 6.3% 6.1% 9.7% 9.5% 17% 6.0% 6.1% 12% 12% 12% 6.2% 6.1% 11% 11%
Georgia
17% 6.1% 7.5% 16% 14% 14% 6.6% 5.2% 6.8% 7.2% 19% 5.7% 4.5% 13% 15% 13% 6.3% 6.8% 10% 6.4%
Germany
13% 5.0% 5.4% 13% 12% 17% 7.5% 6.4% 10% 11% 13% 4.3% 4.7% 11% 13% 12% 8.2% 8.3% 13% 12%
Greece
15% 4.7% 5.5% 13% 15% 14% 6.5% 5.6% 10% 11% 13% 5.1% 5.1% 11% 13% 15% 7.4% 6.8% 11% 12%
Hungary
15% 5.1% 6.1% 14% 16% 13% 6.8% 7.1% 10% 7.7% 14% 5.2% 5.1% 12% 14% 16% 6.5% 5.4% 12% 9.2%
Iceland
20% 6.7% 7.7% 14% 13% 13% 6.3% 5.4% 7.7% 6.0% 19% 6.6% 6.0% 14% 13% 12% 5.9% 6.0% 10% 7.8%
Ireland
22% 5.7% 5.4% 14% 16% 13% 5.5% 5.2% 7.9% 5.3% 19% 7.1% 6.4% 11% 13% 15% 6.0% 5.8% 9.2% 7.4%
Italy
14% 4.7% 4.9% 11% 14% 16% 6.8% 6.2% 11% 11% 13% 4.8% 4.9% 10% 11% 15% 8.0% 7.6% 12% 14%
Latvia
15% 4.0% 6.4% 14% 13% 14% 7.3% 6.3% 10% 9.4% 15% 5.7% 4.9% 11% 15% 14% 6.4% 7.1% 12% 9.6%
Lisbon FIR
14% 5.3% 5.2% 12% 15% 15% 6.7% 6.3% 11% 10% 12% 4.9% 5.3% 11% 12% 16% 7.3% 7.2% 12% 13%
Lithuania
15% 5.5% 7.2% 12% 13% 15% 7.2% 6.1% 9.3% 9.5% 16% 4.9% 4.8% 13% 13% 13% 6.8% 7.7% 12% 8.7%
Malta
14% 6.3% 6.8% 13% 15% 13% 6.7% 6.3% 12% 7.4% 14% 4.7% 5.4% 13% 13% 14% 6.1% 6.5% 12% 11%
Moldova
16% 6.0% 8.2% 19% 14% 13% 6.9% 6.6% 5.6% 4.3% 15% 5.4% 5.0% 14% 19% 14% 5.6% 6.7% 11% 4.1%
Netherlands
17% 5.9% 6.1% 12% 13% 15% 6.9% 6.3% 11% 7.6% 16% 5.3% 5.9% 12% 12% 12% 7.3% 7.1% 12% 11%
Norway
18% 6.3% 6.8% 14% 14% 14% 6.1% 5.4% 9.5% 6.8% 18% 5.9% 5.8% 13% 13% 13% 6.6% 5.7% 9.7% 9.0%
Poland
15% 5.1% 6.4% 16% 15% 12% 7.7% 7.1% 8.5% 7.0% 14% 5.3% 4.6% 12% 16% 15% 5.7% 5.8% 13% 8.8%
Romania
16% 5.4% 5.1% 13% 16% 14% 7.1% 7.1% 9.3% 8.0% 14% 5.7% 5.4% 10% 13% 16% 8.2% 5.4% 13% 8.8%
Russian Federation
17% 4.4% 6.2% 17% 14% 14% 7.5% 6.7% 6.8% 6.5% 18% 5.7% 5.0% 11% 17% 14% 5.5% 6.7% 11% 5.9%
Santa Maria FIR
14% 5.3% 5.2% 12% 15% 15% 6.7% 6.3% 11% 10% 12% 4.9% 5.3% 11% 12% 16% 7.3% 7.2% 12% 13%
Serbia&Montenegro
16% 6.3% 6.4% 13% 14% 13% 6.3% 7.3% 9.8% 7.0% 16% 5.5% 6.0% 13% 13% 14% 6.5% 6.1% 12% 8.2%
Slovakia
15% 5.3% 6.6% 16% 16% 13% 7.0% 6.7% 8.4% 5.5% 15% 5.2% 4.8% 12% 16% 16% 6.1% 6.2% 12% 7.1%
Slovenia
15% 4.5% 5.1% 14% 15% 15% 7.3% 7.2% 9.4% 8.5% 15% 5.0% 4.5% 9.8% 14% 15% 7.2% 7.0% 13% 10%
Spain
15% 4.5% 4.8% 12% 17% 16% 6.8% 5.6% 9.4% 9.4% 13% 5.3% 5.1% 9.7% 12% 17% 7.9% 7.4% 11% 11%
Sweden
17% 5.2% 7.1% 13% 13% 13% 5.9% 5.6% 11% 8.5% 18% 5.9% 5.4% 12% 13% 12% 6.6% 5.6% 10% 11%
Switzerland
15% 5.2% 6.1% 14% 14% 16% 6.6% 5.5% 9.7% 8.3% 15% 4.8% 5.2% 12% 14% 13% 7.5% 7.1% 11% 10%
Turkey
26% 8.5% 8.1% 16% 15% 11% 4.6% 3.7% 4.6% 2.9% 22% 7.6% 7.6% 15% 15% 13% 5.2% 4.5% 6.7% 3.7%
UK
18% 5.8% 6.5% 14% 13% 14% 6.0% 5.2% 9.8% 7.9% 18% 6.0% 5.4% 13% 13% 12% 6.7% 6.5% 9.7% 9.8%
Ukraine
15% 4.7% 6.2% 16% 15% 14% 6.9% 7.3% 7.7% 7.6% 16% 5.6% 4.3% 11% 17% 15% 6.1% 7.0% 12% 6.6%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
35
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Figure 28: Population distribution per Traffic Region.
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat
Comments: Only the population age distributions, not numbers (in 000s) are used.
Units: Percentage of TR population in this age range. Data last updated: 11/12/2015
Age
0 to
14
Actual
Base
2015
2025
Age Age Age Age Age Age Age Age
Age Age Age Age Age Age Age Age
Age 15
15
20 25 35
45
55
60
65
20 25 35 45
55
60
65
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to Age 0 to to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to Age
19
24 34 44
54
59
64
74 75+ 14 19
24 34 44 54
59
64
74 75+
Asia/Pacific
20% 6.6% 7.8% 16% 15%
15% 5.5% 5.0% 6.0% 3.7% 18% 6.1% 6.0% 14% 15% 14% 7.3% 5.9% 8.5% 4.9%
ESRA East
16% 4.7% 6.2% 16% 15%
13% 7.3% 6.9% 7.8% 6.9% 17% 5.5% 4.8% 11% 16% 14% 5.9% 6.5% 12% 6.9%
ESRA
Mediterranean
ESRA North-
15% 4.9% 5.2% 12% 15%
15% 6.8% 6.1% 10%
10% 13% 5.1% 5.1% 11% 12% 15% 7.7% 7.3% 12%
12%
15% 5.4% 5.7% 13% 13%
15% 6.9% 6.2% 10% 9.8% 15% 5.1% 5.4% 12% 13% 12% 7.3% 7.2% 12%
11%
West
Mid-Atlantic
28% 9.4% 8.9% 16% 13%
10% 3.9% 3.2% 4.1% 2.9% 24% 8.2% 8.2% 16% 14% 12% 4.8% 4.0% 5.5% 3.6%
Middle-East
30% 8.9% 8.7% 17% 14% 9.7% 3.5% 2.8% 3.2% 2.0% 28% 8.4% 8.0% 16% 14% 11% 4.2% 3.4% 4.6% 2.2%
North Atlantic
19% 6.4% 7.2% 14% 13%
North-Africa
32% 8.7% 8.9% 17% 12% 9.3% 3.6% 2.8% 3.4% 1.9% 31% 8.8% 7.7% 14% 14% 10% 3.9% 3.3% 4.4% 2.1%
Other Europe
17% 4.4% 6.3% 17% 14%
14% 7.5% 6.7% 6.9% 6.6% 18% 5.6% 5.0% 11% 17% 14% 5.5% 6.7% 11% 5.9%
South-Atlantic
25% 8.5% 8.3% 16% 14%
12% 4.6% 3.8% 4.9% 3.1% 21% 7.4% 7.8% 15% 15% 12% 5.3% 4.7% 6.7% 4.2%
Southern
Africa
43% 11% 9.1% 14% 9.6% 6.2% 2.2% 1.7% 2.2% 0.9% 41% 11% 9.3% 15% 10% 6.8% 2.3% 1.8% 2.3% 1.0%
14% 6.9% 5.9% 8.6% 6.3% 18% 6.3% 6.3% 13% 13% 12% 5.8% 6.4% 11% 8.3%
On top of the United Nations forecast of population, we also rely on data
related to the propensity10 to fly (see Figure 29) to estimate the future number
of passengers, hence the future traffic demand. Two sets of data were used:
data from the UK CAA based on surveys conducted in 2014 at Heathrow
airport; data from the DGAC France in which propensity data have been
collected over 15 French airports over the period 2014-2015.
Figure 29: Propensity to fly per age group.
Source: UK CAA and French DGAC passenger surveys (2014-2015) and UN population forecast (2015 Revision)
Units: Flight Factor (%passengers/%population) per age bracket. Data last updated: 18/01/2016.
Note: base, high and low scenario values are identical
Age Bracket
3.6
Actual Base
2015
2022
Age 0 to 14
0.12
0.12
Age 15 to 19
0.85
0.66
Age 20 to 24
1.92
1.77
Age 25 to 34
1.90
1.80
Age 35 to 44
1.61
1.54
Age 45 to 54
1.27
1.33
Age 55 to 59
1.05
1.27
Age 60 to 64
0.94
1.16
Age 65 to 74
0.56
0.72
Age 75+
0.16
0.14
Airports
The forecast takes airport capacity into account. The airport capacity model
used in the 7-year forecast is based on ‘effective annual capacity’ figures that
are applied to the forecasted total annual traffic demand at the airports and
10
Propensity to fly is the annual number of flights generated per thousand population.
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
36
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
reduce the final forecasted number of movements to be within the annual
capacity limits of the airports. A comprehensive set of capacity data has been
gathered through the EUROCONTROL Network Manager Airport Unit’s online
tool named the ‘Airport Corner’. The information coming directly from the
airports and validated by the EUROCONTROL Airport Unit is deemed to be
complete, realistic, reliable and of high quality. For incomplete information, the
dataset has been completed by using direct information from Stakeholders.
The data collection process for this forecast has been updated in January 2016
and covers a set of 101 airports, including the major ones. To respect the
commercial sensitivity of this airport information, it is not published.
The assumptions shown in Figure 30 represent the expected traffic switches
within the forecast period (varied by scenario). These assumptions are based
on information from the news and/or information received from STATFOR User
Group members.
The closure of Berlin/Tegel (EDDT), with traffic moving to the new airport
Berlin/Brandenburg (EDDB) as of September 2017 in the base and the high
scenario. In the low scenario, the new airport is planned to be operational one
year later.
Also, the new (third) airport at Istanbul expected to be operational from October
2017 has been modelled in this forecast as a progressive increase in the
capacity of LTBA11 (Istanbul/Atatürk) until the end of the forecast horizon. We
assumed that LTBA will continue to operate (lesser extent) after the third
airport will open.
Lastly, a new runway is planned at EDDM after 2021.
Figure 30. Airport traffic switch.
Source: EUROCONTROL Data and analysis
Comments: Updated for MTF16 inputs
Units: Airport Traffic Switching. Data last updated: 18/01/2016
Low
2018
3.7
Traffic Type
Traffic Between
And Region
Move To
All
EDDT
-
EDDB
2019
16% 100%
Base
2017
2018
16% 100%
High
2017
2018
16% 100%
High-Speed Train Network
The HST travel times (input data) have been updated for this 7-year forecast. A
review of current state of projects has been conducted; the principal source of
the HST data being the International Union of Railways (UIC12), Wikipedia or
Stakeholder-supplied information (DGAC France, DFS Germany and DHMI
Turkey). The rail projects listed here are only the ones for which improvements
in travel time will be found within the forecast horizon.
11
rd
For technical reasons the additional capacity available from the 3 airport is currently considered
under LTBA.
12
UIC website: http://www.uic.org/
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
37
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Figure 31. High-Speed Train Times that change during the forecast.
Source: Actuals from on-line timetables. Plans from various sources.
Units: Travel time (minutes). Data last updated: 21/01/2016 Distances estimated from airport locations.
Amsterdam
London
Sivas
Ankara
Bursa
Barcelona
Lyon
Luxembourg
Brussels
Strasbourg
Copenhagen
Hamburg
Leipzig
Erfurt
Munchen
Nurnberg
Bern
Bale Mulhouse
Frankfurt
Paris
Stuttgart
Ankara
Istanbul
Konya
Sivas
Bern
Karlsruhe
Bale Mulhouse
Koln/Bonn
Bale Mulhouse
Frankfurt
Leipzig
Munchen
Lille
Rennes
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
Dist
Km
359
359
359
354
354
354
318
318
318
530
530
530
176
176
176
337
337
337
286
286
286
102
102
102
307
307
307
165
165
165
348
348
348
274
274
274
444
444
444
154
154
154
335
335
335
454
454
454
682
682
682
239
239
239
166
166
166
361
361
361
310
310
310
354
354
354
448
448
448
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
2015
286
286
286
600
600
600
240
240
240
300
300
300
135
135
135
270
270
270
270
270
270
72
72
72
300
300
300
172
172
172
230
230
230
170
170
170
230
230
230
70
70
70
250
250
250
275
275
275
1260
1260
1260
180
180
180
100
100
100
230
230
230
210
210
210
345
345
345
237
237
237
2016
.
240
240
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
90
90
.
180
180
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
180
180
.
205
205
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Rail Time (mins)
2017 2018 2019 2020
240
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
120
.
.
120
.
.
.
120
.
.
.
135
.
.
135
.
.
.
135
.
.
.
.
180
.
.
180
.
.
.
180
.
.
.
90
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
180
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
39
.
.
39
.
.
.
39
.
.
.
.
.
150
.
.
150
.
.
.
150
.
.
.
.
66
.
.
66
.
.
.
66
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
200
.
.
.
200
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
140
.
.
.
140
.
215
.
.
215
.
.
.
215
.
.
.
.
.
53
.
.
53
.
.
.
53
.
.
180
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
205
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
300
.
.
300
.
.
.
300
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
150
.
.
.
150
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
69
.
.
.
69
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
200
.
.
.
200
.
.
180
.
.
180
.
.
.
180
.
.
.
.
190
.
.
190
.
.
.
190
.
.
.
200
.
.
200
.
.
.
200
.
.
.
2021
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
180
180
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
200
.
.
140
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
150
.
.
69
.
.
200
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Edition: 15/12/17-52
2022
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
180
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
2015
75
75
75
35
35
35
79
79
79
106
106
106
78
78
78
75
75
75
64
64
64
85
85
85
61
61
61
57
57
57
91
91
91
97
97
97
116
116
116
132
132
132
80
80
80
99
99
99
32
32
32
80
80
80
100
100
100
94
94
94
89
89
89
62
62
62
114
114
114
2016
.
90
90
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
117
117
.
112
112
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
112
112
.
133
133
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
2017
90
.
.
.
.
.
.
141
141
.
177
177
117
.
.
112
.
.
.
.
.
.
156
156
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
124
124
.
.
.
112
.
.
133
.
.
.
136
136
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
135
135
Speed (km/h)
2018 2019
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
177
177
.
177
.
141
.
.
.
.
.
177
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
156
.
.
.
.
.
.
123
123
.
123
.
.
150
150
.
150
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
124
.
.
.
.
.
.
175
175
.
175
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
136
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
103
103
.
103
.
.
112
112
.
112
.
135
.
.
.
.
.
2020
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
105
105
.
118
118
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
96
96
.
145
145
.
108
108
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Released Issue
2021
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
95
95
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
105
.
.
118
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
96
.
.
145
.
.
108
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
2022
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
95
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
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.
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.
.
38
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
Bilbao
Bordeaux
Madrid
San Sebastian
Santiago
Vigo
Berlin
Munchen
Zurich
Bordeaux
Brest
Madrid
Montpellie
Paris
Munchen
Rennes
Stuttgart
Toulouse
Luxembourg
Strasbourg
Lille
Paris
Tours
Bordeaux
Zurich
Milan
3.8
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
H
B
L
Dist
Km
327
327
327
543
543
543
363
363
363
476
476
476
455
455
455
481
481
481
260
260
260
519
519
519
511
511
511
1062
1062
1062
600
600
600
675
675
675
326
326
326
490
490
490
596
596
596
162
162
162
405
405
405
381
381
381
314
314
314
221
221
221
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
2015
300
300
300
495
495
495
300
300
300
330
330
330
372
372
372
360
360
360
250
250
250
182
182
182
250
250
250
595
595
595
210
210
210
360
360
360
127
127
127
220
220
220
296
296
296
130
130
130
240
240
240
140
140
140
155
155
155
220
220
220
2016
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
330
330
.
.
.
.
190
190
.
.
.
.
85
85
.
150
150
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Rail Time (mins)
2017 2018 2019 2020
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
180
.
.
180
.
.
.
180
.
.
.
.
230
.
.
230
.
.
.
230
.
.
.
.
245
.
.
245
.
.
.
245
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
195
.
.
.
195
.
125
.
.
125
.
.
.
125
.
.
.
.
180
.
.
180
.
.
.
180
.
.
.
.
565
.
.
565
.
.
.
565
.
.
.
.
180
.
.
180
.
.
.
180
.
.
.
330
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
90
.
.
90
.
.
.
90
.
.
.
190
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
243
.
.
243
.
.
.
243
.
.
.
85
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
150
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
110
.
.
110
.
.
.
110
.
.
.
.
90
.
.
90
.
.
.
90
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
160
.
.
.
160
2021
.
130
130
.
260
260
.
135
135
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
195
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
445
445
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
160
.
.
2022
130
.
.
260
.
.
135
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
445
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
2015
65
65
65
66
66
66
73
73
73
87
87
87
73
73
73
80
80
80
62
62
62
171
171
171
123
123
123
107
107
107
171
171
171
113
113
113
154
154
154
134
134
134
121
121
121
75
75
75
101
101
101
163
163
163
122
122
122
60
60
60
2016
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
123
123
.
.
.
.
155
155
.
.
.
.
114
114
.
162
162
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
2017
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
249
249
.
170
170
.
113
113
.
200
200
123
.
.
.
217
217
155
.
.
.
147
147
114
.
.
162
.
.
.
208
208
.
210
210
.
.
.
Speed (km/h)
2018 2019 2020
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
159
.
159
.
.
159
.
.
.
119
.
119
.
.
119
.
.
.
118
.
118
.
.
118
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
80
.
.
80
249
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
170
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
113
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
200
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
217
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
147
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
208
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
210
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
83
.
.
83
2021
.
151
151
.
125
125
.
161
161
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
80
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
143
143
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
83
.
.
2022
151
.
.
125
.
.
161
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
143
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Emission Trading Schemes
The aviation industry has joined the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) in
2012. In April 2013, the EU decided to temporarily suspend enforcement of the
EU ETS requirements for flights operated in 2010, 2011, and 2012 from or to
non-European countries, while continuing to apply the legislation to flights
within and between countries in Europe. In autumn 2013, the International Civil
Aviation Organization (ICAO) Assembly, mandated by the EU, reached an
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agreement to tackle aviation emissions globally. The ICAO Assembly agreed to
develop by 2016 a global market-based mechanism addressing international
aviation emissions and apply it by 2020. Considering the fact that the scope of
the EU ETS application and its impact are currently reduced, the fact that
carbon prices are now very low (around 8 euros/tonne in 201513), we have
estimated that its impact on flight demand is small relative to the uncertainty
within the 7-year horizon of this forecast. This component has therefore been
de-activated.
3.9
Airline schedules
The schedules data of Innovata LLC have not been used in this forecast. Some
adjustments were however added in the ‘Events and Trends’ (see Section 3.2)
to take into account some growth in Summer 2016 seen in the schedule data.
13
State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2015, World Bank.
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Growth in IFR flights to 2022
Since the previous forecast was published in September 2015, the
economic outlook remained fairly stable (circa 2% economic growth at
European level for the next seven years). The new forecast is now for 11.5
million IFR flight movements (±1.2 million) in Europe in 2022, 16% more
than in 2015.
The first year (2016) of the forecast expects a growth in traffic of 2.4%
(±1.4 pp) which is in line with forecast published in September 2015. From
2017 onwards, European flight growth is expected to be back at around
2.1% per year over the 2017-2022 period. The 2008 peak of 10.2 million
flights is forecasted to be reached again by 2017; a 9-year hiatus. Part of
the traffic growth in Europe in 2016 and 2020 is due to the extra growth
from the leap year effect (this effect accounts for 0.3% of the growth).
Any user of the forecast is strongly advised to consider the low-to-high
ranges.
Figure 32. Summary of the forecast for Europe.
ECAC
2012 2013 2014 2015
H
IFR Flight
Movements
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
RP2
AAGR
2019/2014
2022/2015
AAGR
. 10,293 10,639 11,092 11,503 11,997 12,417 12,868
3.8%
3.3%
B 9,710 9,603 9,770 9,917 10,153 10,364 10,578 10,818 11,091 11,301 11,535
2.2%
2.1%
L
.
.
.
. 10,023 10,107 10,140 10,231 10,335 10,373 10,440
0.7%
0.9%
H
.
.
.
.
3.8%
3.4%
4.3%
3.7%
4.3%
3.5%
3.6%
3.8%
3.3%
B -2.2% -1.1%
1.7%
1.5%
2.4%
2.1%
2.1%
2.3%
2.5%
1.9%
2.1%
2.2%
2.1%
.
.
1.1%
0.8%
0.3%
0.9%
1.0%
0.4%
0.6%
0.7%
0.9%
.
.
.
(Thousands)
Annual
Growth
(compared to
previous year
unless otherwise
mentioned)
L
.
.
Annex 2, Annex 3 and Annex 4 give the details of forecast traffic and growth
per State and areas (ECAC, FABs, EU28…).
4.1
Short-term outlook (2016-2017)
On top of the recent and expected traffic trends, specific events explained in
Section 2.1 and Section 3.2 are changing traffic patterns in the short-term:

Mutual ban on flights between Russia and Ukraine affects negatively
Ukraine’s overflights.

Adverse travel advice for North-African States (Tunisia and Egypt) are
shifting tourism overall towards Iberia and Greece.

On top of that, changes in Russian tourism destinations in response to
recent events are likely to shift traffic from Turkey and Egypt to Iberian
destinations.
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Europe as a whole
2016 forecast for Europe is now for a 2.4% (±1.4pp) flight growth, see Figure
33. This is in line with the September 2015 forecast. This high growth rate is
among other things due to the extra growth from the leap year effect. We see
both upside risks (e.g. fleet growth of LCCs) and downside risks (e.g. economic
uncertainty). These are captured in the ±1.4pp range, and our assessment is
that they are in balance for 2016. For more discussion of the risks, see
Section 6.
2017 forecast for Europe is now for 2.1% (±1.3pp) flight growth; see Figure 34,
a slight upwards revision of 0.2 percentage point compared to the September
forecast.
Removing the effect of the leap year (±0.3pp) means that we expect a growth
of 2.1% for both 2016 and 2.4% for 2017.
South-West axis:
For 2016, forecasts for Spain, Lisbon FIR, Canary Islands and Azores have
been largely revised upwards due to higher traffic expected this Summer. The
resulting respective growth for these countries are 6.7%, 5.9%, 6.4% and 6.2%
growth (an increase of growth versus the September 2015 forecast varying
between 1.7 pp and 3.5 pp). These countries are the main alternatives for
tourist aiming to avoid Egypt, Tunisia and to a lesser extent Turkey.
Forecasts for Malta and Greece have been negatively revised in 2016 down to
1.3% and 3.3% (respectively). This is due to the pressure on their overflight
linked to the reduction of traffic to Turkey.
Italy flights have also been revised downwards to 1.8%, notably due to the
negative impact of the fee imposed by the Government on all departures.
South-East Axis:
Ukraine and Moldova have been again revised downwards due to the negative
impact on overflight of the ban imposed mutually by Russia and Ukraine. They
are now respectively at -6% and -5.4% of growth for 2016. Other surrounding
countries have also seen their forecast revised but to a lesser extent.
North-West axis
Out of the busiest States, the forecasts of 2016 for UK and Spain have been
revised upwards to 2.7% and 6.7%. Germany is stable with 2.7%. On the other
hand, the 2016 forecasts for France and Italy have slightly been revised
downwards to rates around 2.2% and 1.8%.
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Figure 33. Flight forecast details for 2016.
Figure 34. Flight forecast details for 2017.
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Medium-term outlook (up to 2022)
After 2018, the traffic growth in Europe stabilises at around 2.2% increase per
year, showing higher rates in 2020 but this is due to the extra growth from the
leap year effect.
Any user of the forecast is strongly advised to use the forecast range (lowgrowth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. By 2022, the high-growth
scenario has 1.3 million more and low-growth scenario 1.1 million fewer flights
than the base scenario. This forecast includes downside risks (e.g. capacity
reductions in response to weaker demand) and upside risks (e.g. current high
load factors might not be able to absorb the passenger demand). It is to be
noted that, this forecast assumes14 no return to “normal” routing will happen by
the end of the seven-year horizon (2022). That being said, there is a probability
that some flights through Ukraine will be restored, which would result in
significant variations in the forecast results. The risks are discussed in
Section 6.
As Figure 35 and Figure 36 show, the growth is not uniform across Europe.
While the growth (in percentage terms) is much weaker in most of the more
mature markets of Western Europe, it is still the busiest States (Germany,
France, Spain followed by UK, Italy and The Netherlands) which will see the
greatest number of extra flights per day (Figure 36). Turkey will still see one of
the fastest growth rates (4.2% as average annual growth rate over the 7 years)
and the highest number of extra flights per day (1,248 additional flights per day
in 2022), being the biggest contributor to the growth in Europe.
Figure 35. Average Annual Growth per State, 2022 vs 2015.
14
Assumptions in this document are purely for forecasting purposes and do not represent any policy
of the Agency.
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Figure 36. Number of additional movements per day for each State (2022 vs 2015).
Figure 37 shows the corresponding Figure 35 at Functional Airspace Block
level (FAB). Danube FAB is expected to have the highest average annual
growth rate (3.3%) over the next seven years. FABEC and Blue Med FAB are
the busiest European FABs with respectively 2,198 and 1,216 additional flights
per day in 2022.
Figure 37. Average Annual Growth per FAB, 2022 vs 2015.
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Annex 3 and Annex 4 give the details of forecast traffic and growth per State
and areas (ECAC, FAB, EU28…).
4.3
Comparison with previous forecast
Globally, the baseline forecast is slightly lower than the September 2015
forecast. Moreover, the uncertainty around high-and low-scenario has
been reduced.
Figure 38 compares the current forecast (MTF16) for total Europe with the
previous seven-year forecast issued in September 2015 (MTF15b). This
comparison can only be done for the traffic region ESRA08 since ECAC was
not yet calculated in the previous versions of the forecast. We observe that the
current forecast (MTF16) remains quite well aligned with the previous one
(MTF15b) even if slightly lower. The uncertainty has now been reduced for the
whole forecast period (narrower low-to-high ranges) and in a much higher
extent in the first two years of the forecast. The wider uncertainty observed in
2018 is explained by the switch from a pure statistical uncertainty in the shortterm model (first two year of the forecast horizon) to a scenario-based
uncertainty in the medium-term model.
Figure 38. For total Europe, current forecast is slightly lower than previous forecast (dated
September 2015), with narrower short-term uncertainty.
4.4
High-speed train effect
Expansion of the high-speed train network reduces flight growth by just
0.5% over 7 years, though the local effects are more significant.
In the forecast model, reductions in travel time for high-speed train lead to
reductions in the number of flights on the same city pair. The high-speed train
(HST) improvements taken into account in this forecast are detailed in Section
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3.7. Some improvement plans of HST have been put on hold or cancelled since
the February 2015 forecast.
The number of IFR movements that are lost to rail because of improvements in
the high-speed train (HST) network are summarised in Figure 39. By 2022, it is
now assessed that around 64,600 flights will be removed from the network. The
effect is around 0.5% in total over the 7 years; which is small on the scale of
the network as a whole (see Section 4.5 for the effect of capacity constraints).
The impact of the train is reduced compared to the results observed in absolute
terms in the February 2015 forecast (72,000 reduction in flights).
However, on specific city-pairs, the effect can be quite large, especially at the
end of the horizon. As far as the States are concerned, France, Turkey and
Spain will see the largest impacts in terms of flights: respectively a reduction of
nearly 19,900 flights, 16,300 flights and 13,600 flights lost to train in 2022
which corresponds to 2.0%, 1.6% and 1.6% of their internal traffic.
Figure 39. Impact of High-Speed Train. (Reduction in flights when High-Speed train network
development is taken into account. Note that the HST impact is assessed on forecasts excluding
capacity constraints).
Change in IFR Movements (000s)
Percentage Change
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
High
0.0
10.6
34.5
53.8
63.5
67.0
78.1
0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
Base
0.9
20.6
38.7
46.7
49.6
58.0
64.6
0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5%
Low
1.0
20.4
37.3
44.4
47.0
53.8
59.0
0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6%
Base Belgium/Lux.
Denmark
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Spain
Switzerland
Turkey
UK
4.5
2016
Change in IFR Movements (000s)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
.
.
.
.
0.1
0.1
.
.
.
.
.
0.3
.
9.3 19.7 19.6 19.7 19.9
.
0.3
4.2
8.9
9.3 10.2
.
.
.
.
0.3
0.7
.
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.7
.
0.3
2.5
4.5
4.6
9.1
.
.
.
.
0.6
1.4
0.9
8.7 10.3 11.9 13.4 14.8
.
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.7
2022
0.1
0.6
19.9
10.5
0.7
0.7
13.6
1.4
16.3
0.7
2016
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
0.1%
.
2017
.
.
1.0%
0.0%
.
0.3%
0.0%
.
1.2%
0.1%
Percentage Change
2018 2019 2020
.
. 0.0%
.
.
.
2.1% 2.0% 2.0%
0.4% 0.7% 0.8%
.
. 0.0%
0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
0.3% 0.6% 0.6%
.
. 0.2%
1.3% 1.4% 1.5%
0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
2021
0.0%
0.1%
2.0%
0.8%
0.1%
0.2%
1.1%
0.5%
1.5%
0.1%
2022
0.0%
0.3%
2.0%
0.8%
0.1%
0.2%
1.6%
0.5%
1.6%
0.0%
Airport capacity impact
Constraints at airports mean that demand for around 190 thousand flights
cannot be accommodated by 2022, which is a 1.6% reduction in growth
over the period. Compared to previous estimates of the impact, the main
change is in the forecast volume of traffic not in the capacity values.
Airports provide their capacity plans to EUROCONTROL through the Airport
Unit of the Network Manager. The published forecast is constrained by these
capacity plans (see Section 3.6). We calculate the effects of airport capacity
constraints by comparing the published forecast with a what-if? forecast that
removes capacity constraints. The results are shown in Figure 40.
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In the base scenario, by 2022 around 191,000 flights cannot take place
because the departure or arrival airport has reached its capacity. That is 1.6%
of demand, so represents about 0.2% per year reduction in flight growth. This
assumes that airports are able to deliver the capacity plans that they have,
which has not always been the case.
Industry responds to constraints in a number of ways: airlines by up-gauging
aircraft, or by growing or moving elsewhere; airports by expanding or
enhancing their infrastructure; governments by investing in alternative modes,
for example. The mitigation report (Ref. 6) from Challenges of Growth 2013
considered these mitigation options in more detail, at the 2035 horizon. In
practice, this implies that some of these unaccommodated flights may be
accommodated by other means that are beyond the scope of the present report
to analyse.
Compared to the February 2015 forecast (Ref. 1) constraints have a similar
impact at seven years ahead (1.6% in 2022, versus 1.7% in 2021 last year),
but at the shared 2021 horizon, have a lower impact (for 2021: 1.3% in the
February 2016 forecast, versus 1.7% in 2021 in the February 2015 forecast).
Figure 40. Impact of airport constraints. (Reduction in IFR flights when airport constraints are
taken into account.)
Change in IFR Movements (000s)
2016 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Percentage Change
2022
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
High
41.9
59.2 100.9 164.6 210.4 285.0 377.4 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% 1.4% 1.7% 2.3% 2.9%
Base
35.5
34.1
54.2
Low
29.8
22.1
9.7
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83.2 113.7 143.7 191.0 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.8% 1.0% 1.3% 1.6%
16.9
28.0
42.1
58.8 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6%
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5
Service unit growth to 2022
5.1
En-route Service Units (TSU)
Following a slowdown of the growth rates in Central Europe from August 2015,
now that the routing patterns avoiding various airspace (e.g. Eastern Ukraine)
have been in place for over 12 months, a slower growth in the service units is
expected in 2016 compared to September 2015 forecast.
This revision downwards mainly concerns Central and Eastern European
countries, such as the Czech Republic, Bulgaria or Romania forecasts because
the lack of information about their trends-to-be 12 months after the Ukrainian
airspace closure in the September forecast led to an overestimation. However,
a downwards revision is also observed along the Adriatic coast (eg. Slovenia,
Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia and Albania) and for Greece following the re-balancing
of flows from Greece towards Malta after the Libyan airspace closure (see
Section 2.1.2).
En-route service units are also expected to be lower in Norway and Finland
because of their weaker economies, and consequently to have a negative
impact on the en-route service units in Sweden.
On the other hand, a few countries saw their TSU forecast revised upwards
following a stronger flight forecast: this is the case for Italy, UK, Germany and
Switzerland which are expected to grow in 2016 by around 1 additional
percentage point more compared to the September forecast. Spain, Canary
Islands and Portugal growth have also been revised upwards in 2016 with
expected additional traffic linked to their attractiveness as a holiday destination
following the decline of North-African destinations (see Section 2.1.2).
For 2016, the total en-route service units in the participating EUROCONTROL
member states (CRCO14) are expected to grow by 3.1% (±1.4pp) compared to
2015 and reach 141.9 million (Figure 41). This is a downwards revision by
0.7pp compared to the 3.8% growth forecast in the September 2015 forecast.
Growth of service units in 2017 has also been revised downwards and is now
expected to see a rate of 2.8% compared to 2016 to reach 146 million TSU,
0.2pp lower than in the previous forecast.
Considering that 2016 is a leap year, these growth figures might better be
expressed in terms of average daily figures, which correspond respectively to a
growth of 2.8% for 2016 and to a growth of 3.1% for 2017.
The service units will end 1.5 million lower than expected in the September
2015 forecast, reaching in total 163.4 million by 2021, and 167.6 million TSU in
2022, which represents an average growth rate of 2.9% compared to 2015.
The full comparison between the September 2015 forecast and this February
2016 one is available in Figure 43.
Any user of this seven-year forecast should consult the entire forecast range
(low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast includes
downside risks (e.g. the economic indicators could worsen) and upside risks
(e.g. high load factors could trigger higher traffic numbers sooner-thanexpected).
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The average annual growth figures per State can be found in Figure 42. The
detailed forecasts for each State are in Annex 6 (Figure 60 and Figure 61).
Figure 41. Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe.
Total en-route
service units 2012
(Thousands)
H
CRCO14*
2013
.
2014
.
2015
.
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
. 143,850 149,529 157,405 164,524 172,643 179,748 187,436
2022/
2014
Total
Growth
RP1
2014/
2011
AAGR
36%
RP2
2019/
2014
AAGR
. 4.5%
B 122,298 124,910 132,130 137,689 141,945 145,972 150,229 154,606 159,406 163,372 167,633
22% 2.2% 3.2%
L
.
.
.
. 140,069 142,465 143,840 145,952 148,170 149,492 151,194
10%
. 2.0%
H
.
.
.
. 120,307 124,587 130,750 136,089 142,252 147,468 153,080
33%
. 4.0%
†
RP2Region B 105,251 106,930 111,670 115,063 118,792 121,710 124,870 128,055 131,610 134,414 137,421
L
.
Total en-route
service units 2012
(Growth)
.
2013
.
2014
. 117,295 118,886 119,630 121,018 122,500 123,203 124,221
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
19% 1.5% 2.8%
8%
. 1.6%
RP1
AAGR 2014/
2022/ 2011
2014 AAGR
RP2
2019/
2014
AAGR
H
.
.
.
.
4.5%
3.9%
5.3%
4.5%
4.9%
4.1%
4.3%
4.5%
B
-1.3%
2.1%
5.8%
4.2%
3.1%
2.8%
2.9%
2.9%
3.1%
2.5%
2.6%
2.9% 2.2% 3.2%
L
.
.
.
.
1.7%
1.7%
1.0%
1.5%
1.5%
0.9%
1.1%
1.3%
. 2.0%
H
.
.
.
.
4.6%
3.6%
4.9%
4.1%
4.5%
3.7%
3.8%
4.2%
. 4.0%
RP2Region B
-1.4%
1.6%
4.4%
3.0%
3.2%
2.5%
2.6%
2.6%
2.8%
2.1%
2.2%
2.6% 1.5% 2.8%
L
.
.
.
.
1.9%
1.4%
0.6%
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.8%
1.1%
CRCO14*
†
. 4.5%
. 1.6%
* CRCO14 designates the sum over all the states participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in 2014 of all TSU either measured or
forecasted for the corresponding year.
†
RP2Region refers to the 28 EU member states plus Norway and Switzerland. RP2 series includes service units for flight segments performed as
Operational Air Traffic (OAT) for Germany.
Figure 42. Average annual growth of service units between 2015 and 2022.
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Figure 43. Comparison 2015-2021 between the current TSU forecast and September 2015
for CRCO14 Area
5.2
Terminal Navigation Service Units (TNSU)
This TNSU forecast is based on the 2016-2022 IFR flight forecast and uses the
CRCO flight database for all States except for Estonia which provided
STATFOR with its own data, to capture the necessary information about weight
of the aircraft. More details about the TNSU forecast method can be found in
Ref. 2. The definition of the terminal charging zones (TCZ) is based on the
known list of airports per TCZ for RP2 provided by States as available in their
RP2 performance plans at the end of 2015 (see Annex 1 for RP2 region
definition and TCZ list). The detailed results per TCZ are given in Annex 8 and
Annex 9 (Figure 62 and Figure 63). Figure 45 provides a summary of these
results.
In 2016, the terminal navigation service units are expected to grow by 3.1%
compared to 2015 to reach 7.7 million in the states concerned by the second
reference period (RP2 Region), which represents a growth of 2.8% in daily
terms as 2016 is a leap year. In 2017, an annual growth rate of 2.8% (i.e. 3.1%
growth in daily terms because of the leap year effect) is expected.
The expected average annual growth rate (AAGR) for the RP2 region during
the second reference period (2019 compared to 2014) is expected to stand at
3% and after the end of the reference period, in 2022, 9.1 million TNSU are
expected for the whole region (Figure 45), which represents a total growth of
22.2% compared to 2015.
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Figure 44. Total Terminal Navigation Service Units generated in the RP2 Region area
RP2 Region
2011
TNSU Total
(thousands)
H
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
AAGR AAGR
2022/ RP1
2015
2014/
2011
2019/
2014
.
4.2%
B 7,376.4 7,234.3 7,223.5 7,266.7 7,484.2 7,714.4 7,927.6 8,152.7 8,403.3 8,674.4 8,891.0
9,144.1 2.9% -0.5%
3.0%
L
8,290.8 1.5%
.
1.8%
TNSU Annual H
Growth
B
(%)
L
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. 7,819.3 8,130.1 8,548.1 8,945.4 9,380.7 9,764.3
. 7,613.0 7,731.5 7,798.0 7,948.1 8,083.8 8,174.8
10,173.6 4.5%
AAGR
RP2
.
.
.
.
.
4.5%
4.0%
5.1%
4.6%
4.9%
4.1%
4.2% 4.5%
.
4.2%
8.6%
-1.9%
-0.1%
0.6%
3.0%
3.1%
2.8%
2.8%
3.1%
3.2%
2.5%
2.8% 2.9% -0.5%
3.0%
.
.
.
.
.
1.7%
1.6%
0.9%
1.9%
1.7%
1.1%
1.4% 1.5%
1.8%
An overview of the additional TNSU expected by 2022 as well as the average
annual growth rates is presented in Figure 45
Figure 45. TNSU 7-year forecast February 2016 overview – Average annual growth and
estimated additional daily TNSU generated between 2022 and 2015 per TCZ.
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Risks to the forecast growth
Users of the forecasts are strongly advised to use the forecast range (lowgrowth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. These flight forecasts are
prepared in conditions of large changes in traffic routings. For many individual
States, these are the biggest risks for traffic growth.
The main sources of uncertainty in the intermediate forecast are as follows.
In percentage terms for individual States, the biggest risks concern the route
choices of airlines, which are generally downside risks for some States and
simultaneously upside risks for others, balancing out across Europe as a
whole:

By 2022 there is a significant probability that some flights through Ukraine
will be restored.

Closure of Libyan airspace has reduced Maltese overflights as well as rerouted traffic to southern Africa. It is not clear when normal patterns will be
restored.

Currently, the Syrian conflict is having an important impact on overflights
across South-East Europe. We have not included an end to this in our
scenario nor intensification, though clearly at some point this network
disruption will clear and the overflight changes reverse. Avoidance of Iraq
and to a lesser extent Sinai is less significant for the forecast.

The immigration crisis linked to the Syrian and Libyan conflict and the
response of the Governments of the 26-country Schengen area is also a
downside risk. Under the rules governing the open travel area,
governments could suspend the Schengen system for two years, which
would deter passenger travel, though to an unknown extent.

Previous years have seen persistent (many months) reduction in en route
capacity as a result of the introduction of new ATC systems. This results
in tactical and strategic re-routing of traffic, enough to affect annual totals.
More changes are on the way, presenting further risks, for example Czech
Republic, FYROM, Spain, Portugal and Norway have changes planned.

The jet stream influences route choice too, though this is more usually an
effect over days or weeks than over the whole year.

Unit rates are one of the many factors that influence an airline’s choice of
route. Large changes in rates could lead to low single-figure percentage
changes in flight counts.

Oil prices remain changeable. With fuel accounting for around 20% of
operating costs, this can have an effect on fares and cost of travel for
customer (see Section 2.1). There is, in the short-term, an upside risk if the
airlines start reflecting the fall of fuel costs to the ticket prices (cheaper);
the most recent data from Eurostat suggests prices may finally be in
decline. On the opposite, a surge in oil prices could lead in an increase of
fuel cost, hence an increase of the ticket prices which is a downside risk.
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More generally, future network changes (e.g., new routes) and airlines’
changing choice of routes are not modelled by the forecast.
The economic forecasts used here were updated in January 2016. The
economic outlook remains uncertain. The low scenario provides some
guidance here. Economic risks are to some extent synchronised, so do not
balance out across Europe as routing risks do.
A few years ago, two States, Turkey and Russia, were the predominant drivers
of flight growth. This makes growth sensitive to the continued expansion of
these two economies. Sanctions on Russia, and Russia's response to them,
are significant for the downward revision of the forecast overall. This could
improve, but could easily get worse, representing on balance a downside risk.
On the other hand, there are growing competitive pressures for expansion,
especially for low-cost carriers, so as aircraft deliveries accelerate we could
see more rapid expansion, although in our view this is likely to be localised.
The high scenario provides some guidance for this, but only for local, not
widespread application.
Load factors remain at or near record highs (Section 2.1). As traffic begins to
grow again, this means that load factors might be able to absorb less of the
passenger growth than they have in past years. From the present position, the
recovery would then come more rapidly than anticipated. This is therefore an
upside risk.
Tourism trends are quite variable. The forecast does not identify which will be
the new holiday ‘destination of preference’ in a given year. The recent events in
both Egypt and Tunisia have led to more variability in tourism destinations. On
the whole this is more likely a downside risk.
Terrorist attacks, wars and natural disasters. Following the February 2014
forecast publication, in which a further volcanic eruption or pandemic were
mentioned as some of the risks, both have occurred. The impact on air traffic
could be a temporary one, or more significant. The Zika virus is included here
as a potential risk.
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Glossary
AAGR
Average annual growth
AD, A/D
Arrivals/Departures
AIRAC
Aeronautical Information and Regulation and Control
AEA
Association of European Airlines
B
(in tables) Baseline Scenario
CRCO11
States participating to the Multilateral Route Charges System
dated 2012. Namely, CRCO11 includes Albania, Armenia,
Austria,
Belgium/Luxembourg,
Belgrade,
BosniaHerzegovina, Bulgaria, Canary Islands, Croatia, Cyprus,
Czech Republic, Denmark, FYROM, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lisbon FIR,
Lithuania, Malta, Moldova, Netherlands, Norway, Poland,
Romania, Santa Maria FIR, , Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain,
Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK.
CRCO14
States participating to the Multilateral Route Charges System
dated 2014. Namely CRCO14 includes the list of States
within CRCO11 plus Georgia.
ECAC
European Civil Aviation Conference(see Annex 1)
ESRA
Eurocontrol Statistical Reference Area (see Annex 1)
EU27
European Union (27 States)
EU28
European Union (28 States): EU27 plus Croatia.
FAB
Functional Airspace Block
FIR
Flight Information Region
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
H
(in tables) High-Growth Scenario
I
Internals
ICAO
International Civil Aviation Organisation
IFR
Instrument Flight Rules
KFOR
Kosovo Force
L
(in tables) Low-Growth Scenario
MTF
Medium-Term (Seven-Year) Forecast
NM
Network Manager
O
Overflights
OE
Oxford Economics Ltd
pp
percentage point
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PScheme
States involved in the Performance scheme first period of
reference (EU27, Norway and Switzerland – no longer used)
RP1
First Period of Reference (2012-2014) for the Performance
Scheme of the SES
RP2
Second Period of Reference
Performance Scheme of the SES
RP1Region
See PScheme
RP2Region
States involved in the Performance scheme second period of
reference (EU28, Norway and Switzerland)
SES
Single European Sky
SID
STATFOR Interactive Dashboard
STATFOR
Eurocontrol Statistics and Forecast Service
TCZ
Terminal Charging Zone (a grouping of airports)
TNSU
Terminal Navigation Service Units
TSU
Total En-Route Service Units
TZ
Traffic Zone (≈State, except for Spain, Portugal, Belgium and
Luxembourg, Serbia and Montenegro)
UIR
Upper Flight Information Region
(2015-2019)
for
the
Other abbreviations and acronyms used in this document are available in the
EUROCONTROL Air Navigation Inter-site Acronym List (AIRIAL) which may
be found here:
http://www.eurocontrol.int/airial/definitionListInit.do?skipLogon=true&glossaryUi
d=AIRIAL
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Annex 1 Traffic region definitions
ECAC
The European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) is an intergovernmental
organization which was established by ICAO and the Council of Europe. ECAC
now totals 44 members, including all 28 EU, 31 of the 32 European Aviation
Safety Agency member states, and all 41 EUROCONTROL member states.
It is now used as a basis for comparison at European level in the forecasts.
Figure 46. Map of the European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) Area.
ESRA08
The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA) is designed to
include as much as possible of the ECAC area for which data are available
from a range of sources within the Agency ‘ESRA08’ was introduced in the
MTF09 report. It was used as a basis for comparison at European level in the
forecasts up to September 2015.
ESRA08 consists of 34 traffic zones. Traffic zones are defined by an aggregate
of FIRs & UIR of States. These do not take delegation of airspace into account.
For individual States, the differences between charging areas and ACCs can
have a big impact on overflight counts (and thus on total counts where the total
is dominated by overflights). For the ESRA as a whole, there is only a small
proportion of overflights, so that the difference between a FIR and an ACC
definition is small.
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Figure 47. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area.
Traffic regions
The traffic regions are defined for statistical convenience and do not reflect an
official position of the EUROCONTROL Agency. As far as possible, these
regions have been aligned with ICAO statistical and forecast regions. Traffic
flows are described as being to or from one of a number of traffic regions listed
in Figure 48. Each traffic region is made up of a number of traffic zones
(=States), which are indicated by the first letters of the ICAO location codes for
brevity.
Figure 48. Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August 2012.
ESRA North-West
ICAO region/country
EB, ED, EF, EG, EH, EI, EK, EL, EN, ES, ET, LF, LN, LO, LS
ESRA Mediterranean
GC, LC, LE, LG, LI, LM, LP, LT
ESRA East
BK, EP, LA, LB, LD, LH, LJ, LK, LQ, LR, LU, LW, LY, LZ, UK
Other Europe
North Atlantic
BG, BI, EE, EK (Faroe Islands), ENSB (Bodo Oc.), EV, EY, GE, LX, UB, UD, UG,
UH, UI, UL, UM, UN, UO, UR, US, UU, UW, Shanwick Oc., Santa Maria FIR
C, K, P
Mid-Atlantic
M, T
South-Atlantic
S
North-Africa
DA, DT, GM, HE, HL
Southern Africa
D, F, G, H, (except DA, DT, HE, HL, GC, GM)
Middle-East
L, O (except OA, OP)
Asia/Pacific
A, N, P, Y, OA, OP, R, V, W, Z (except ZZZZ), U (except UK and areas in Other
Europe)
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As far as “Europe” is concerned, it is split into two regions: ESRA (defined in
the previous section) and Other Europe. For flow purposes, ESRA is split into
a “North-West” region mostly of mature air traffic markets, a “Mediterranean”
region stretching from the Canaries to Turkey and with a significant tourist
element, and an Eastern region. The ‘Other Europe’ region (i.e. non ESRA)
includes the States along the border of ESRA and extends from Greenland to
the Urals and Azerbaijan. The map of the nine traffic regions used in our
statistics is displayed in Figure 49.
Figure 49. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics.
EU28
This 7-year forecast report includes EU28, taking the accession of Croatia into
account. The traffic counts exclude Canaries and Azores.
CRCO11
‘CRCO11’ refers to the EUROCONTROL Member States participating in the
Multilateral Route Charges System in 2012. This list comprises: Albania,
Armenia, Austria, Belgium/Luxembourg, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canary
Islands, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, FYROM, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lisbon FIR, Lithuania, Malta,
Moldova, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Santa Maria FIR, SerbiaMontenegro-, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK.
CRCO14
‘CRCO14’ refers to the EUROCONTROL Member States participating in the
Multilateral Route Charges System in 2014. This list comprises: CRCO11 and
Georgia, which joined EUROCONTROL in 2014.
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Functional Airspace Blocks
On top of the traffic zones, this report also presents the forecast of IFR
movements from 2014 to 2020 for the Functional Airspace Blocks (FAB). A
FAB is a block of airspace based on operational requirements regardless of
the State boundaries (Figure 50). FAB initiatives (definitions) are now frozen
according to the targets defined to improve the performance of the European
air traffic management network. STATFOR defines the FABs based on the
FIR15 boundaries. The definition of FAB-FIR is:
 UK-Ireland FAB (Scottish FIR&UIR, London FIR&UIR, Shannon FIR&UIR)
 Danish-Swedish FAB (Copenhagen FIR, Sweden FIR)
 Baltic FAB (Warszawa FIR, Vilnius FIR&UIR)
 BLUE MED FAB (Nicosia FIR&UIR, Athinai FIR&UIR, Brindisi FIR&UIR,
Milano FIR&UIR, Roma FIR&UIR, Malta FIR&UIR)
 Danube FAB (Sofia FIR, Bucarest FIR)
 FAB CE (Zagreb FIR, Budapest FIR, Ljubljana FIR, Praha FIR, Wien FIR,
Sarajevo FIR&UIR, Bratislava FIR)
 FABEC (Brussels FIR&UIR, Langen FIR, Munchen FIR, Rhein UIR,
Hannover UIR, Bremen FIR, Amsterdam FIR, Bordeaux FIR, Reims FIR,
Paris FIR, France UIR, Marseille FIR, Brest FIR, Switzerland FIR,
Switzerland UIR)
 North European FAB (Tallinn FIR, Finland FIR&UIR, Enor FIR, Riga FIR,
Bodo Oceanic FIR)
 South West FAB (Canarias FIR&UIR, Lisboa FIR, Madrid FIR&UIR,
Barcelona FIR&UIR). Canaries are currently not included in the forecast
tables of South West FAB in Annex 3 and Annex 4.
Figure 50. FABs as stipulated by the European Commission.
15
Note that the PRU uses the FAB-ANSP definition.
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RPRegions
RP1Region and RP2Region are the two regions involved in the Performance
Scheme respectively related to First Reference Period (2012-2014) and
Second Review Period (2015-2019).
 RP1Region: stands for the sum over all the 29 States that were involved in
the EU-wide performance target setting for the first period, namely: 28 EU
Member States plus Norway plus Switzerland minus Croatia.
 RP2Region: stands for the sum over all the 30 States that are involved in
the EU-wide performance target setting for the second period, namely: 28
EU Member States plus Norway plus Switzerland. This zone is also called
SES-RP2 in this report.
The “PScheme” region presented in previous reports (Traffic Tables of the
Annexes) is not reported anymore, as it could introduce some confusion with
respect to the RPRegions above mentioned.
SES-RP2
The SES-RP2 area mentioned in this report is covering the 30 States that are
involved in the EU-wide performance target setting for the second period,
namely: 28 EU member States plus Norway plus Switzerland. SES-RP2
includes Canarias but not Azores. The SES-RP2 zone is also called
RP2Region in our reports.
Figure 51. States within SES-RP2 Region in this report (Performance Scheme Region for
the Second Review Period).
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The “SES” region presented in previous reports (Traffic Tables of the Annexes)
is not reported anymore, as it could introduce some confusion with respect to
the SES-RP2 above mentioned.
Terminal Charging Zones
A “terminal charging zone” is an airport or a group of airports for which a costbased unit rate is established.
The list of aerodromes forming the TCZs during RP2 for the 30 States
participating in the SES performance scheme (RP2) can be found in Figure 52.
The main change in this forecast is the addition of UK _TCZ_C defined by the
UK as a separate terminal charging zone, which covers the London Approach
Service (LAS) for the five London airports (Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Luton
and London City). These five airports are also part of the nine airports forming
the UK_TCZ_B.
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Figure 52. List of aerodromes forming the TCZ in RP2.
Austria
LO_TCZ
Belgium
LOWG
LOWI
LOWK
LOWL
LOWS
LOWW
EBAW
EB_TCZ_EBAW
Belgium
EBBR
EB_TCZ_EBBR
Belgium
EBCI
EB_TCZ_EBCI
Belgium
EBLG
EB_TCZ_EBLG
Belgium
EBOS
EB_TCZ_EBOS
Bulgaria
LBSF
LB_TCZ
Croatia
LDZA
LDZL
LD_TCZ
Cyprus
LCLK
LCPH
LC_TCZ
Czech Republic
LK_TCZ
France
LF_TCZ
LFAQ
LFBA
LFBD
LFBE
LFBH
LFBI
LFBL
LFBO
LFBP
LFBT
LFBZ
LFCR
LFGJ
LFJL
LFJR
LFKB
LFKC
LFKF
LFKJ
LFLB
LFLC
LFLL
LFLP
LFLS
LFLX
LFLY
LFMD
LFMH
LFMI
LFMK
LFML
LFMN
LFMP
LFMT
LFMU
LFMV
LFOB
LFOH
LFOK
LFOT
LFPB
LFPG
LFPN
LFPO
LFQQ
LFRB
LFRD
LFRG
LFRH
LFRK
LFRN
LFRO
LFRQ
LFRS
LFRZ
LFSB
LFSD
LFSL
LFST
LFTH
LFTW
Germany
ED_TCZ
Poland
EP_TCZ
Portugal
LP_TCZ
LG_TCZ
LGAV
Hungary
LH_TCZ
Romania
LHBP
LR_TCZ
EKCH
EK_TCZ
EICK
EIDW
EINN
Slovakia
LZ_TCZ
Estonia
EETN
EETU
LI_TCZ_1
Slovenia
LIRF
LJLJ
LJMB
LJPZ
LJ_TCZ
Italy
LI_TCZ_2
LIMC
LIME
LIML
LIPZ
Spain
GCLP
LEBL
LEMD
LEMG
LEPA
LE_TCZ
Latvia
EV_TCZ
EVLA
EVRA
EVVA
Sweden
ES_TCZ_A
ESSA
Lithuania
EY_TCZ
EYKA
EYPA
EYSA
EYVI
Switzerland
LS_TCZ
LSGG
LSZH
UK
EGBB
EGCC
EGGW
EGKK
EGLC
EGLL
EGPF
EGPH
EGSS
EGGW
EGKK
EGLC
EGLL
EGSS
Luxembourg
ELLX
EG_TCZ_B
Malta
LM_TCZ
LMML
EG_TCZ_B
Netherlands
EHAM
EHBK
EHGG
EHRD
Norway
EN_TCZ
Finland
EF_TCZ
LZIB
Italy
EH_TCZ
EE_TCZ
LRBS
LROP
Ireland
EI_TCZ
UK
Denmark
EPBY
EPGD
EPKK
EPKT
EPLB
EPLL
EPMO
EPPO
EPRA
EPRZ
EPSC
EPSY
EPWA
EPWR
EPZG
LPAZ
LPFL
LPFR
LPHR
LPMA
LPPD
LPPR
LPPS
LPPT
Greece
EL_TCZ
LKKV
LKMT
LKPR
LKTB
EDDB
EDDC
EDDE
EDDF
EDDG
EDDH
EDDK
EDDL
EDDM
EDDN
EDDP
EDDR
EDDS
EDDT
EDDV
EDDW
ENBR
ENGM
ENVA
ENZV
EFHK
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Annex 2 Summary of forecast for ECAC
Figure 53. Growth in Europe (ECAC)
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Figure 54. Flights and growth on main flow categories in Europe (ECAC)
IFR Flight Movements(000s)
Annual Growth
ECAC
2012
Total:
Internal
2013 2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
AAGR
2022/
2015
RP2
2019/2014
AAGR
H
.
.
.
.
8,213
8,468
8,788
9,068
9,408
9,688
9,987
.
.
.
.
4.6%
3.1%
3.8%
3.2%
3.8%
3.0%
3.1%
3.5%
3.4%
B
7,751
7,576
7,681
7,855
8,106
8,251
8,391
8,549
8,736
8,868
9,017
-3.2%
-2.3%
1.4%
2.3%
3.2%
1.8%
1.7%
1.9%
2.2%
1.5%
1.7%
2.0%
2.2%
L
.
.
.
.
8,006
8,052
8,053
8,103
8,162
8,168
8,197
.
.
.
.
1.9%
0.6%
0.0%
0.6%
0.7%
0.1%
0.3%
0.6%
1.1%
H
.
.
.
.
1,908
1,991
2,112
2,231
2,369
2,494
2,629
.
.
.
.
1.2%
4.3%
6.0%
5.6%
6.2%
5.3%
5.4%
4.9%
3.2%
B
1,813
1,863
1,908
1,886
1,880
1,939
2,006
2,079
2,156
2,226
2,302
1.9%
2.7%
2.4%
-1.1%
-0.4%
3.2%
3.5%
3.6%
3.7%
3.2%
3.4%
2.9%
1.7%
L
.
.
.
.
1,852
1,887
1,915
1,951
1,991
2,019
2,052
.
.
.
.
-1.8%
1.9%
1.5%
1.9%
2.0%
1.4%
1.7%
1.2%
0.5%
H
Total:
Overflight
.
.
.
.
171
180
192
205
220
235
252
.
.
.
.
-3.0%
5.0%
6.8%
6.8%
7.1%
6.8%
7.3%
5.2%
2.5%
B
145
165
181
177
168
174
181
190
199
207
217
6.6%
14%
9.9%
-2.7%
-4.9%
3.7%
4.2%
4.5%
4.7%
4.3%
4.6%
3.0%
0.9%
L
.
.
.
.
165
169
172
177
182
186
191
.
.
.
.
-6.8%
2.6%
2.1%
2.7%
2.8%
2.3%
2.6%
1.1%
-0.5%
H
.
.
.
. 10,293
10,639
11,092
11,503
11,997
12,417
12,868
.
.
.
.
3.8%
3.4%
4.3%
3.7%
4.3%
3.5%
3.6%
3.8%
3.3%
B
9,710
9,603
9,770
9,917 10,153
10,364
10,578
10,818
11,091
11,301
11,535
-2.2%
-1.1%
1.7%
1.5%
2.4%
2.1%
2.1%
2.3%
2.5%
1.9%
2.1%
2.2%
2.1%
L
.
.
.
. 10,023
10,107
10,140
10,231
10,335
10,373
10,440
.
.
.
.
1.1%
0.8%
0.3%
0.9%
1.0%
0.4%
0.6%
0.7%
0.9%
Total:
Arr/Dep
Grand
Total
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
65
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Figure 55. Busiest bi-directional region-to-region flows for ECAC
IFR Movements(000s)
2012
1 ESRA
North-W
2 ESRA
Mediter
3 ESRA
Mediter
4 ESRA
East
5 ESRA
North-W
ESRA
North-W
ESRA
North-W
ESRA
Mediter
ESRA
North-W
North
Atlant
2013
2014
2015
Annual Growth
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
AAGR
2022/
2015
H
.
.
.
.
3533.6
3583.9
3634.0
3671.8
3746.9
3786.0
3825.9
.
.
.
.
2.1%
1.4%
1.4%
1.0%
2.0%
1.0%
1.1%
1.4%
B
3581.4
3491.4
3467.5
3462.4
3502.5
3516.2
3522.2
3545.5
3581.9
3594.5
3610.5
-2.7%
-2.5%
-0.7%
-0.1%
1.2%
0.4%
0.2%
0.7%
1.0%
0.4%
0.4%
0.6%
L
.
.
.
.
3472.8
3456.7
3430.5
3429.6
3432.3
3410.4
3397.9
.
.
.
.
0.3%
-0.5%
-0.8%
-0.0%
0.1%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.3%
H
.
.
.
.
1952.6
2024.8
2115.7
2187.7
2267.9
2332.7
2402.4
.
.
.
.
6.8%
3.7%
4.5%
3.4%
3.7%
2.9%
3.0%
4.0%
B
1653.8
1680.2
1765.5
1828.8
1923.1
1968.7
2009.3
2050.9
2097.1
2130.2
2166.3
-1.3%
1.6%
5.1%
3.6%
5.2%
2.4%
2.1%
2.1%
2.3%
1.6%
1.7%
2.4%
L
.
.
.
.
1894.7
1914.8
1916.2
1928.6
1942.1
1944.0
1951.5
.
.
.
.
3.6%
1.1%
0.1%
0.6%
0.7%
0.1%
0.4%
0.9%
H
.
.
.
.
1465.6
1526.5
1605.4
1682.8
1766.6
1849.0
1936.2
.
.
.
.
6.8%
4.2%
5.2%
4.8%
5.0%
4.7%
4.7%
5.0%
B
1350.0
1266.2
1313.4
1372.7
1440.9
1481.1
1524.1
1566.9
1614.7
1652.2
1695.3
-8.8%
-6.2%
3.7%
4.5%
5.0%
2.8%
2.9%
2.8%
3.1%
2.3%
2.6%
3.1%
L
.
.
.
.
1420.4
1439.1
1453.3
1469.8
1490.1
1500.5
1514.9
.
.
.
.
3.5%
1.3%
1.0%
1.1%
1.4%
0.7%
1.0%
1.4%
H
.
.
.
.
575.0
606.3
649.8
688.5
730.6
767.7
807.4
.
.
.
.
5.2%
5.4%
7.2%
6.0%
6.1%
5.1%
5.2%
5.7%
B
520.4
525.8
515.5
546.5
566.0
586.5
608.4
630.4
654.6
675.3
697.6
0.0%
1.0%
-1.9%
6.0%
3.6%
3.6%
3.7%
3.6%
3.8%
3.2%
3.3%
3.5%
L
.
.
.
.
557.3
568.2
573.0
583.7
593.7
600.0
607.8
.
.
.
.
2.0%
2.0%
0.8%
1.9%
1.7%
1.1%
1.3%
1.5%
H
.
.
.
.
315.4
322.4
330.0
337.2
348.4
355.1
361.5
.
.
.
.
1.4%
2.2%
2.3%
2.2%
3.3%
1.9%
1.8%
2.2%
B
293.7
292.2
299.4
311.2
313.2
319.4
323.8
328.5
333.6
337.0
340.6
-2.7%
-0.5%
2.5%
3.9%
0.6%
2.0%
1.4%
1.5%
1.5%
1.0%
1.1%
1.3%
L
.
.
.
.
310.9
314.8
317.4
319.6
322.3
322.7
323.8
.
.
.
.
-0.1%
1.3%
0.8%
0.7%
0.8%
0.1%
0.3%
0.6%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
66
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Annex 3
Seven-year flight forecast per
state (IFR Movements)
This appendix presents the flight forecast details. On top of the average annual
growth rates (AAGR) over the 7-year horizon, average annual growth rates
over the first reference period (RP1) and the second reference period (RP2) of
the Performance Scheme have been added to the tables.
Figure 56. Forecast of the number of IFR Movements (thousands) per State.
IFR Flight Movements (Thousands)
IFR Movements (thousands)
Albania
Armenia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Belgium/Luxembourg
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Canary Islands
2012
2013
2014
2015
H
.
.
.
.
195
207
218
229
241
252
265
3.9%
.
B
195
201
198
202
190
199
205
211
219
225
232
2.0%
.
L
.
.
.
.
186
192
193
196
200
202
205
0.2%
.
H
.
.
.
.
40
44
47
50
54
58
63
5.9%
.
B
56
52
51
42
40
42
44
46
49
52
54
3.7%
.
L
.
.
.
.
39
41
42
43
44
46
47
1.6%
.
H
.
.
.
.
1,201
1,243
1,306
1,359
1,420
1,472
1,530
3.9%
3.4%
B
1,133
1,114
1,152
1,168
1,183
1,209
1,241
1,271
1,304
1,331
1,360
2.2%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
1,166
1,176
1,181
1,195
1,208
1,214
1,222
0.7%
0.7%
H
.
.
.
.
131
137
148
159
171
184
197
7.0%
.
B
130
129
127
123
129
134
141
148
156
164
173
5.0%
.
L
.
.
.
.
127
130
134
139
144
149
154
3.2%
.
H
.
.
.
.
274
284
300
315
331
345
361
4.6%
.
B
240
255
269
263
270
276
284
292
301
308
316
2.7%
.
L
.
.
.
.
266
268
269
273
277
279
282
1.0%
.
H
.
.
.
.
1,216
1,254
1,306
1,342
1,385
1,417
1,451
3.2%
3.4%
B
1,089
1,101
1,133
1,165
1,201
1,226
1,254
1,280
1,309
1,328
1,349
2.1%
2.5%
L
.
.
.
.
1,187
1,197
1,202
1,212
1,223
1,226
1,232
0.8%
1.4%
H
.
.
.
.
324
336
356
374
394
412
432
4.8%
.
B
268
262
298
311
318
325
335
345
357
366
377
2.8%
.
L
.
.
.
.
312
315
317
321
326
329
332
1.0%
.
H
.
.
.
.
801
837
889
937
993
1,045
1,102
5.3%
6.5%
B
540
551
683
767
788
813
841
870
901
929
959
3.2%
4.9%
L
.
.
.
.
776
790
800
815
829
840
852
1.5%
3.6%
H
.
.
.
.
304
317
333
346
360
373
388
4.7%
4.1%
B
275
265
284
281
299
307
313
320
326
331
337
2.6%
2.4%
L
.
.
.
.
294
298
297
297
298
297
297
0.8%
1.0%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
2016
2017
2018
Edition: 15/12/17-52
2019
2020
2021
2022
AAGR
RP2
2022/ 2019/2014
2015
AAGR
Released Issue
67
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
IFR Flight Movements (Thousands)
IFR Movements (thousands)
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
FYROM
Finland
France
Georgia
Germany
Greece
Hungary
2012
2013
2014
2015
H
.
.
.
.
546
566
598
626
658
687
718
4.3%
3.8%
B
495
492
520
535
536
547
562
578
597
612
628
2.3%
2.2%
L
.
.
.
.
526
529
532
538
545
550
555
0.5%
0.7%
H
.
.
.
.
321
336
362
389
419
448
481
6.0%
5.0%
B
270
277
304
319
314
324
338
354
371
386
404
3.4%
3.0%
L
.
.
.
.
308
312
317
325
334
340
348
1.2%
1.3%
H
.
.
.
.
791
826
872
911
956
998
1,042
4.9%
5.4%
B
679
680
700
746
780
803
825
846
871
892
915
3.0%
3.8%
L
.
.
.
.
769
782
785
798
808
814
821
1.4%
2.7%
H
.
.
.
.
654
672
696
717
747
768
790
3.4%
3.0%
B
605
618
619
626
646
656
668
680
693
702
712
1.9%
1.9%
L
.
.
.
.
639
641
642
645
649
648
648
0.5%
0.8%
H
.
.
.
.
200
207
218
229
242
253
265
4.6%
3.6%
B
189
183
191
194
197
201
207
213
219
224
231
2.5%
2.1%
L
.
.
.
.
195
196
197
199
202
203
205
0.8%
0.8%
H
.
.
.
.
158
165
174
183
194
203
214
5.0%
.
B
113
113
146
152
155
159
164
169
175
180
186
2.9%
.
L
.
.
.
.
152
154
155
157
160
161
164
1.1%
.
H
.
.
.
.
255
260
268
276
286
293
302
2.8%
2.2%
B
252
243
248
248
252
254
257
260
264
267
270
1.2%
1.0%
L
.
.
.
.
249
248
246
246
247
245
245
-0.2%
-0.1%
H
.
.
.
.
3,100
3,203
3,333
3,438
3,561
3,649
3,742
3.2%
3.1%
B
2,923
2,902
2,947
2,992
3,056
3,116
3,174
3,240
3,312
3,364
3,421
1.9%
1.9%
L
.
.
.
.
3,014
3,036
3,033
3,054
3,077
3,081
3,094
0.5%
0.7%
H
.
.
.
.
124
131
142
154
166
179
192
6.7%
.
B
108
110
116
122
122
127
134
142
150
157
166
4.4%
.
L
.
.
.
.
120
124
127
132
137
141
145
2.5%
.
H
.
.
.
.
3,201
3,300
3,428
3,538
3,667
3,774
3,889
3.4%
3.1%
B
3,018
2,990
3,030
3,080
3,163
3,226
3,280
3,342
3,416
3,471
3,534
2.0%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
3,125
3,151
3,157
3,193
3,221
3,229
3,245
0.7%
1.1%
H
.
.
.
.
751
777
822
867
920
971
1,028
5.4%
5.0%
B
633
623
678
713
736
750
773
798
830
858
889
3.2%
3.3%
L
.
.
.
.
721
725
730
742
757
769
783
1.3%
1.8%
H
.
.
.
.
784
821
871
917
972
1,022
1,077
5.4%
6.5%
B
589
600
670
744
772
798
823
850
880
907
935
3.3%
4.9%
L
.
.
.
.
760
775
783
795
809
819
830
1.6%
3.5%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
2016
2017
2018
Edition: 15/12/17-52
2019
2020
2021
2022
AAGR
RP2
2022/ 2019/2014
2015
AAGR
Released Issue
68
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
IFR Flight Movements (Thousands)
IFR Movements (thousands)
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lisbon FIR
Lithuania
Malta
Moldova
Morocco
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
2012
2013
2014
2015
H
.
.
.
.
169
176
185
193
204
213
223
4.8%
.
B
123
131
145
160
167
173
178
183
189
194
200
3.2%
.
L
.
.
.
.
165
169
171
174
177
179
181
1.8%
.
H
.
.
.
.
595
612
640
661
678
691
704
3.2%
4.2%
B
521
522
537
566
589
602
618
633
650
662
670
2.4%
3.3%
L
.
.
.
.
583
589
596
604
612
617
623
1.4%
2.4%
H
.
.
.
.
1,754
1,818
1,914
1,997
2,088
2,167
2,254
4.1%
3.5%
B
1,685
1,648
1,680
1,696
1,726
1,761
1,806
1,849
1,897
1,935
1,977
2.2%
1.9%
L
.
.
.
.
1,700
1,710
1,713
1,725
1,739
1,744
1,753
0.5%
0.5%
H
.
.
.
.
253
263
278
292
308
323
338
4.7%
3.8%
B
233
236
243
244
249
255
261
268
275
281
288
2.4%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
245
247
247
249
251
251
252
0.5%
0.5%
H
.
.
.
.
544
568
598
622
648
671
696
4.7%
5.3%
B
438
449
480
505
535
551
563
576
589
599
610
2.7%
3.7%
L
.
.
.
.
526
534
533
535
538
538
539
0.9%
2.2%
H
.
.
.
.
264
274
289
303
319
333
347
4.2%
3.4%
B
236
242
257
260
260
266
272
280
287
293
300
2.0%
1.7%
L
.
.
.
.
256
257
258
260
262
263
264
0.2%
0.2%
H
.
.
.
.
106
111
122
133
144
156
170
7.5%
5.4%
B
97
109
102
102
104
107
112
119
125
131
138
4.3%
3.1%
L
.
.
.
.
102
103
105
108
111
113
116
1.8%
1.1%
H
.
.
.
.
44
49
53
56
60
64
68
5.8%
.
B
64
74
56
45
43
47
49
51
53
55
57
3.3%
.
L
.
.
.
.
42
45
46
47
48
48
49
1.2%
.
H
.
.
.
.
375
397
430
463
500
537
580
7.0%
.
B
324
334
359
361
368
382
400
417
436
454
474
4.0%
.
L
.
.
.
.
362
369
374
381
388
393
400
1.5%
.
H
.
.
.
.
1,220
1,258
1,306
1,344
1,393
1,433
1,476
3.3%
3.4%
B
1,083
1,109
1,138
1,176
1,210
1,241
1,271
1,297
1,327
1,352
1,379
2.3%
2.7%
L
.
.
.
.
1,200
1,221
1,236
1,249
1,265
1,269
1,277
1.2%
1.9%
H
.
.
.
.
610
620
631
640
674
690
704
2.2%
0.7%
B
587
610
619
603
603
599
604
610
618
622
627
0.6%
-0.3%
L
.
.
.
.
598
588
583
580
580
575
571
-0.8%
-1.3%
H
.
.
.
.
731
767
823
874
928
978
1,031
5.7%
4.5%
B
684
692
702
699
719
742
769
796
824
848
875
3.3%
2.5%
L
.
.
.
.
708
719
723
736
746
751
759
1.2%
1.0%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
2016
2017
2018
Edition: 15/12/17-52
2019
2020
2021
2022
AAGR
RP2
2022/ 2019/2014
2015
AAGR
Released Issue
69
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
IFR Flight Movements (Thousands)
IFR Movements (thousands)
Romania
Santa Maria FIR
Serbia&Montenegro
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
Ukraine
UK
ESRA02
2012
2013
2014
2015
H
.
.
.
.
666
697
740
781
830
875
925
5.5%
5.5%
B
487
513
598
635
655
677
699
724
751
775
802
3.4%
3.9%
L
.
.
.
.
645
657
666
677
691
700
711
1.6%
2.5%
H
.
.
.
.
146
152
158
165
172
177
184
4.4%
5.7%
B
118
121
125
136
144
148
152
156
161
164
168
3.1%
4.6%
L
.
.
.
.
142
145
147
149
151
152
154
1.8%
3.6%
H
.
.
.
.
624
648
685
720
759
794
833
4.7%
.
B
535
518
554
605
612
627
645
665
688
707
727
2.7%
.
L
.
.
.
.
601
606
611
620
630
636
644
0.9%
.
H
.
.
.
.
503
528
560
590
626
659
695
5.8%
6.2%
B
381
397
436
468
495
512
528
546
565
582
601
3.6%
4.6%
L
.
.
.
.
487
497
502
510
518
524
531
1.8%
3.2%
H
.
.
.
.
360
375
395
413
433
451
470
4.4%
3.5%
B
346
329
348
347
354
364
373
384
395
404
415
2.6%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
348
353
354
358
363
366
369
0.9%
0.6%
H
.
.
.
.
1,780
1,859
1,959
2,041
2,128
2,206
2,287
4.9%
5.2%
B
1,557
1,528
1,587
1,640
1,750
1,802
1,848
1,894
1,944
1,980
2,019
3.0%
3.6%
L
.
.
.
.
1,721
1,748
1,753
1,768
1,785
1,789
1,797
1.3%
2.2%
H
.
.
.
.
775
796
828
854
892
920
950
3.4%
2.9%
B
724
730
739
751
766
777
792
807
823
834
848
1.7%
1.8%
L
.
.
.
.
758
759
759
764
768
767
768
0.3%
0.7%
H
.
.
.
.
1,087
1,120
1,167
1,208
1,252
1,286
1,320
3.4%
3.2%
B
1,045
1,019
1,033
1,046
1,072
1,092
1,114
1,137
1,160
1,177
1,198
2.0%
1.9%
L
.
.
.
.
1,058
1,064
1,067
1,073
1,080
1,080
1,084
0.5%
0.8%
H
.
.
.
.
1,416
1,496
1,601
1,712
1,834
1,954
2,087
6.4%
.
B
1,066
1,142
1,269
1,356
1,391
1,453
1,520
1,591
1,665
1,735
1,811
4.2%
.
L
.
.
.
.
1,369
1,409
1,448
1,489
1,531
1,565
1,604
2.4%
.
H
.
.
.
.
205
221
238
254
272
288
306
5.3%
.
B
466
494
320
213
200
212
221
230
240
248
258
2.7%
.
L
.
.
.
.
196
204
206
210
215
218
222
0.6%
.
H
.
.
.
.
2,410
2,480
2,570
2,641
2,732
2,799
2,869
3.1%
3.1%
B
2,211
2,225
2,269
2,322
2,384
2,435
2,484
2,531
2,585
2,622
2,655
1.9%
2.2%
L
.
.
.
.
2,358
2,382
2,395
2,416
2,439
2,445
2,457
0.8%
1.3%
H
.
.
.
.
10,041
10,376
10,814
11,206
11,677
12,076
12,505
3.7%
.
B
9,388
9,297
9,495
9,667
9,906
10,110
10,320
10,548
10,809
11,008
11,231
2.2%
.
L
.
.
.
.
9,780
9,861
9,892
9,985
10,084
10,118
10,180
0.7%
.
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
2016
2017
2018
Edition: 15/12/17-52
2019
2020
2021
2022
AAGR
RP2
2022/ 2019/2014
2015
AAGR
Released Issue
70
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
IFR Flight Movements (Thousands)
IFR Movements (thousands)
EU27
ECAC
ESRA08
SES-SJU
Baltic FAB
BLUE MED FAB
Danube FAB
FAB CE
FABEC
NEFAB
South West FAB
UK-Ireland FAB
2012
2013
2014
2015
2019
2020
2021
2022
H
.
.
.
.
9,257
9,555
9,954
10,301
10,711
11,056
11,426
3.6%
3.2%
B
8,766
8,622
8,783
8,920
9,135
9,314
9,494
9,690
9,917
10,085
10,273
2.0%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
9,016
9,084
9,096
9,170
9,249
9,268
9,313
0.6%
0.9%
H
.
.
.
.
10,293
10,639
11,092
11,503
11,997
12,417
12,868
3.8%
3.3%
B
9,710
9,603
9,770
9,917
10,153
10,364
10,578
10,818
11,091
11,301
11,535
2.2%
2.1%
L
.
.
.
.
10,023
10,107
10,140
10,231
10,335
10,373
10,440
0.7%
0.9%
H
.
.
.
.
10,118
10,453
10,899
11,298
11,777
12,183
12,619
3.8%
3.3%
B
9,548
9,447
9,604
9,752
9,981
10,184
10,398
10,629
10,894
11,096
11,322
2.2%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
9,853
9,932
9,964
10,058
10,157
10,192
10,255
0.7%
0.9%
H
.
.
.
.
9,661
9,968
10,379
10,737
11,174
11,537
11,926
3.6%
3.2%
B
9,162
9,022
9,192
9,326
9,533
9,711
9,896
10,098
10,332
10,505
10,699
2.0%
1.9%
L
.
.
.
.
9,411
9,473
9,481
9,554
9,634
9,650
9,692
0.6%
0.8%
H
.
.
.
.
820
862
924
979
1,040
1,094
1,152
5.5%
4.5%
B
768
776
788
790
807
833
864
893
923
950
979
3.1%
2.5%
L
.
.
.
.
795
807
812
827
837
843
851
1.1%
1.0%
H
.
.
.
.
2,400
2,492
2,633
2,762
2,907
3,040
3,187
4.6%
3.9%
B
2,212
2,194
2,282
2,327
2,357
2,410
2,479
2,549
2,629
2,696
2,771
2.5%
2.2%
L
.
.
.
.
2,318
2,337
2,347
2,373
2,404
2,421
2,446
0.7%
0.8%
H
.
.
.
.
936
981
1,042
1,099
1,164
1,225
1,292
5.4%
5.8%
B
746
758
829
895
920
953
985
1,018
1,055
1,087
1,123
3.3%
4.2%
L
.
.
.
.
906
925
936
953
971
983
997
1.6%
2.8%
H
.
.
.
.
2,079
2,163
2,281
2,385
2,504
2,611
2,727
4.5%
4.3%
B
1,865
1,854
1,928
2,001
2,047
2,101
2,157
2,215
2,281
2,335
2,396
2.6%
2.8%
L
.
.
.
.
2,015
2,041
2,051
2,078
2,105
2,119
2,138
1.0%
1.5%
H
.
.
.
.
5,880
6,058
6,286
6,475
6,700
6,878
7,067
3.2%
3.1%
B
5,564
5,499
5,571
5,667
5,807
5,916
6,017
6,131
6,265
6,361
6,469
1.9%
1.9%
L
.
.
.
.
5,736
5,778
5,785
5,837
5,886
5,895
5,921
0.6%
0.9%
H
.
.
.
.
1,030
1,054
1,085
1,113
1,168
1,203
1,237
2.9%
1.6%
B
1,001
1,012
1,030
1,015
1,017
1,021
1,034
1,049
1,066
1,078
1,091
1.0%
0.4%
L
.
.
.
.
1,005
998
991
991
992
987
984
-0.4%
-0.8%
H
.
.
.
.
1,851
1,933
2,036
2,121
2,212
2,293
2,377
4.9%
5.2%
B
1,644
1,591
1,650
1,706
1,820
1,873
1,922
1,969
2,021
2,057
2,098
3.0%
3.6%
L
.
.
.
.
1,790
1,818
1,823
1,838
1,855
1,859
1,868
1.3%
2.2%
H
.
.
.
.
2,446
2,519
2,611
2,684
2,775
2,843
2,913
3.1%
3.1%
B
2,238
2,254
2,299
2,358
2,420
2,473
2,523
2,571
2,626
2,664
2,697
1.9%
2.3%
L
.
.
.
.
2,393
2,419
2,432
2,454
2,478
2,485
2,497
0.8%
1.3%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
2016
2017
2018
AAGR
RP2
2022/ 2019/2014
2015
AAGR
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
71
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
IFR Flight Movements (Thousands)
IFR Movements (thousands)
DK-SE FAB
EU28
SES-RP2
2012
2013
2014
2015
H
.
.
.
.
1,051
1,080
1,120
1,153
1,202
1,238
1,275
3.4%
2.8%
B
978
999
1,005
1,011
1,039
1,054
1,073
1,092
1,113
1,127
1,144
1.8%
1.7%
L
.
.
.
.
1,027
1,030
1,030
1,036
1,041
1,039
1,040
0.4%
0.6%
H
.
.
.
.
9,271
9,569
9,970
10,317
10,728
11,074
11,445
3.6%
3.2%
B
8,779
8,634
8,797
8,934
9,148
9,328
9,508
9,705
9,932
10,101
10,289
2.0%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
9,030
9,097
9,109
9,184
9,263
9,282
9,327
0.6%
0.9%
H
.
.
.
.
9,577
9,877
10,278
10,625
11,049
11,398
11,770
3.5%
3.1%
B
9,087
8,946
9,114
9,243
9,451
9,625
9,804
10,000
10,227
10,394
10,580
1.9%
1.9%
L
.
.
.
.
9,330
9,390
9,396
9,466
9,542
9,556
9,595
0.5%
0.8%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
2016
2017
2018
Edition: 15/12/17-52
2019
2020
2021
2022
AAGR
RP2
2022/ 2019/2014
2015
AAGR
Released Issue
72
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
Annex 4
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Seven-year flight forecast per
state (Growth)
This appendix shows the same data as the previous, but presented as growth
rather than counts of flights.
Figure 57. Forecast of the IFR Movements growth per State.
IFR Movements (Growth)
IFR Movements (Growth)
Albania
Armenia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Belgium/Luxembourg
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Canary Islands
Croatia
AAGR
RP2
2022/ 2019/2014
2015
AAGR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
H
.
.
.
.
-3.5%
5.9%
5.6%
4.9%
5.5%
4.6%
4.8%
3.9%
.
B
-1.1%
2.8%
-1.1%
1.8%
-5.7%
4.5%
2.9%
3.1%
3.5%
2.9%
3.0%
2.0%
.
L
.
.
.
.
-7.8%
3.2%
0.7%
1.4%
1.8%
1.2%
1.4%
0.2%
.
H
.
.
.
.
-4.5%
8.0%
7.8%
7.5%
8.1%
7.3%
7.5%
5.9%
.
B
-2.0%
-6.6%
-3.4%
-17%
-6.1%
6.4%
4.8%
5.2%
5.7%
5.1%
5.3%
3.7%
.
L
.
.
.
.
-7.7%
4.8%
2.0%
3.1%
3.5%
2.9%
3.2%
1.6%
.
H
.
.
.
.
2.9%
3.5%
5.1%
4.1%
4.5%
3.7%
3.9%
3.9%
3.4%
B
-1.8%
-1.7%
3.4%
1.4%
1.3%
2.2%
2.6%
2.4%
2.6%
2.0%
2.2%
2.2%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
-0.1%
0.9%
0.4%
1.2%
1.1%
0.5%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
H
.
.
.
.
6.3%
4.9%
7.7%
7.3%
8.0%
7.2%
7.4%
7.0%
.
B
5.4%
-1.3%
-1.2%
-3.1%
4.9%
3.6%
5.1%
5.3%
5.5%
5.0%
5.3%
5.0%
.
L
.
.
.
.
3.6%
2.2%
2.9%
3.6%
3.7%
3.2%
3.5%
3.2%
.
H
.
.
.
.
4.3%
3.5%
5.5%
4.9%
5.1%
4.4%
4.6%
4.6%
.
B
6.7%
6.2%
5.6%
-2.2%
2.7%
2.1%
2.8%
3.0%
3.0%
2.5%
2.7%
2.7%
.
L
.
.
.
.
1.2%
0.6%
0.5%
1.4%
1.3%
0.8%
1.1%
1.0%
.
H
.
.
.
.
4.4%
3.1%
4.2%
2.7%
3.2%
2.3%
2.4%
3.2%
3.4%
B
-0.2%
1.0%
2.9%
2.8%
3.1%
2.1%
2.3%
2.0%
2.2%
1.5%
1.6%
2.1%
2.5%
L
.
.
.
.
1.9%
0.9%
0.4%
0.8%
0.9%
0.3%
0.5%
0.8%
1.4%
H
.
.
.
.
4.2%
3.8%
5.8%
5.0%
5.4%
4.6%
4.8%
4.8%
.
B
-2.6%
-2.2%
14%
4.2%
2.3%
2.3%
3.0%
3.1%
3.3%
2.7%
2.9%
2.8%
.
L
.
.
.
.
0.4%
0.8%
0.7%
1.3%
1.5%
0.9%
1.2%
1.0%
.
H
.
.
.
.
4.5%
4.4%
6.2%
5.5%
6.0%
5.2%
5.4%
5.3%
6.5%
B
0.2%
1.9%
24%
12%
2.8%
3.2%
3.4%
3.4%
3.6%
3.1%
3.3%
3.2%
4.9%
L
.
.
.
.
1.2%
1.8%
1.3%
1.8%
1.8%
1.2%
1.5%
1.5%
3.6%
H
.
.
.
.
8.1%
4.3%
5.1%
4.1%
4.1%
3.6%
3.9%
4.7%
4.1%
B
-7.7%
-3.4%
6.9%
-0.9%
6.4%
2.6%
2.2%
2.0%
2.0%
1.5%
1.7%
2.6%
2.4%
L
.
.
.
.
4.7%
1.1%
-0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
-0.3%
-0.0%
0.8%
1.0%
H
.
.
.
.
2.1%
3.6%
5.6%
4.8%
5.2%
4.4%
4.6%
4.3%
3.8%
B
-0.4%
-0.6%
5.5%
3.0%
0.1%
2.1%
2.8%
2.9%
3.2%
2.5%
2.7%
2.3%
2.2%
L
.
.
.
.
-1.7%
0.6%
0.5%
1.1%
1.4%
0.8%
1.1%
0.5%
0.7%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
73
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
IFR Movements (Growth)
IFR Movements (Growth)
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
FYROM
Finland
France
Georgia
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
AAGR
RP2
2022/ 2019/2014
2015
AAGR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
H
.
.
.
.
0.7%
4.7%
7.8%
7.4%
7.7%
7.0%
7.3%
6.0%
5.0%
B
-4.1%
2.8%
9.7%
4.8%
-1.5%
3.0%
4.4%
4.7%
4.8%
4.2%
4.5%
3.4%
3.0%
L
.
.
.
.
-3.5%
1.4%
1.7%
2.5%
2.6%
2.0%
2.3%
1.2%
1.3%
H
.
.
.
.
6.1%
4.4%
5.6%
4.4%
5.0%
4.3%
4.5%
4.9%
5.4%
B
-2.3%
0.0%
3.1%
6.5%
4.6%
3.0%
2.7%
2.5%
3.0%
2.4%
2.6%
3.0%
3.8%
L
.
.
.
.
3.1%
1.7%
0.4%
1.7%
1.3%
0.6%
0.9%
1.4%
2.7%
H
.
.
.
.
4.3%
2.8%
3.7%
3.0%
4.1%
2.8%
2.8%
3.4%
3.0%
B
-3.2%
2.3%
0.0%
1.3%
3.1%
1.6%
1.8%
1.8%
2.0%
1.3%
1.4%
1.9%
1.9%
L
.
.
.
.
2.0%
0.4%
0.1%
0.5%
0.6%
-0.2%
0.1%
0.5%
0.8%
H
.
.
.
.
3.3%
3.4%
5.5%
4.9%
5.6%
4.6%
4.8%
4.6%
3.6%
B
6.1%
-3.1%
4.6%
1.2%
1.8%
2.0%
2.7%
2.8%
3.0%
2.5%
2.8%
2.5%
2.1%
L
.
.
.
.
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
1.2%
1.3%
0.7%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
H
.
.
.
.
4.0%
4.4%
5.5%
5.1%
5.7%
5.0%
5.2%
5.0%
.
B
-9.6%
0.1%
30%
3.9%
1.8%
2.9%
2.7%
3.2%
3.6%
3.0%
3.2%
2.9%
.
L
.
.
.
.
-0.2%
1.4%
0.6%
1.2%
1.9%
1.2%
1.5%
1.1%
.
H
.
.
.
.
2.9%
2.1%
3.1%
2.8%
3.6%
2.7%
2.8%
2.8%
2.2%
B
-5.8%
-3.5%
2.0%
0.0%
1.7%
0.8%
1.1%
1.2%
1.6%
1.0%
1.2%
1.2%
1.0%
L
.
.
.
.
0.5%
-0.4%
-0.7%
-0.1%
0.2%
-0.4%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.1%
H
.
.
.
.
3.6%
3.3%
4.1%
3.1%
3.6%
2.5%
2.5%
3.2%
3.1%
B
-1.5%
-0.7%
1.6%
1.5%
2.2%
2.0%
1.8%
2.1%
2.2%
1.6%
1.7%
1.9%
1.9%
L
.
.
.
.
0.7%
0.7%
-0.1%
0.7%
0.8%
0.1%
0.4%
0.5%
0.7%
H
.
.
.
.
1.2%
5.9%
8.6%
7.9%
8.3%
7.4%
7.6%
6.7%
.
B
-1.7%
2.1%
5.2%
5.5%
-0.3%
4.4%
5.5%
5.6%
5.6%
5.0%
5.3%
4.4%
.
L
.
.
.
.
-1.7%
2.9%
2.9%
3.6%
3.6%
3.0%
3.2%
2.5%
.
H
.
.
.
.
3.9%
3.1%
3.9%
3.2%
3.7%
2.9%
3.0%
3.4%
3.1%
B
-1.9%
-0.9%
1.3%
1.7%
2.7%
2.0%
1.7%
1.9%
2.2%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
1.4%
0.8%
0.2%
1.1%
0.9%
0.2%
0.5%
0.7%
1.1%
H
.
.
.
.
5.4%
3.4%
5.8%
5.4%
6.2%
5.5%
5.8%
5.4%
5.0%
B
-3.5%
-1.6%
8.8%
5.1%
3.3%
1.9%
3.0%
3.3%
4.0%
3.4%
3.6%
3.2%
3.3%
L
.
.
.
.
1.2%
0.5%
0.7%
1.6%
2.1%
1.5%
1.8%
1.3%
1.8%
H
.
.
.
.
5.4%
4.7%
6.0%
5.3%
6.0%
5.2%
5.3%
5.4%
6.5%
B
-4.4%
1.9%
12%
11%
3.7%
3.4%
3.2%
3.3%
3.6%
3.0%
3.2%
3.3%
4.9%
L
.
.
.
.
2.1%
1.9%
1.0%
1.6%
1.8%
1.1%
1.4%
1.6%
3.5%
H
.
.
.
.
5.4%
4.4%
4.9%
4.6%
5.4%
4.5%
4.6%
4.8%
.
B
11%
6.8%
11%
11%
4.3%
3.4%
2.9%
3.0%
3.2%
2.7%
2.9%
3.2%
.
L
.
.
.
.
3.2%
2.2%
1.3%
1.4%
1.7%
1.1%
1.4%
1.8%
.
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
74
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
IFR Movements (Growth)
IFR Movements (Growth)
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lisbon FIR
Lithuania
Malta
Moldova
Morocco
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Romania
AAGR
RP2
2022/ 2019/2014
2015
AAGR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
H
.
.
.
.
5.1%
3.0%
4.5%
3.3%
2.6%
1.9%
1.9%
3.2%
4.2%
B
-0.4%
0.3%
2.8%
5.4%
4.1%
2.2%
2.6%
2.5%
2.6%
1.9%
1.2%
2.4%
3.3%
L
.
.
.
.
3.0%
1.1%
1.1%
1.3%
1.4%
0.8%
1.0%
1.4%
2.4%
H
.
.
.
.
3.4%
3.6%
5.3%
4.3%
4.6%
3.8%
4.0%
4.1%
3.5%
B
-2.3%
-2.2%
1.9%
1.0%
1.8%
2.0%
2.5%
2.4%
2.6%
2.0%
2.2%
2.2%
1.9%
L
.
.
.
.
0.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.7%
0.8%
0.2%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
H
.
.
.
.
3.5%
3.9%
5.7%
5.1%
5.6%
4.6%
4.8%
4.7%
3.8%
B
-1.0%
1.3%
2.8%
0.7%
1.9%
2.2%
2.5%
2.7%
2.7%
2.2%
2.4%
2.4%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
0.3%
0.6%
0.1%
0.7%
0.8%
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
H
.
.
.
.
7.7%
4.5%
5.2%
4.1%
4.1%
3.5%
3.8%
4.7%
5.3%
B
-2.7%
2.6%
6.8%
5.1%
5.9%
3.0%
2.3%
2.2%
2.3%
1.7%
1.8%
2.7%
3.7%
L
.
.
.
.
4.2%
1.5%
-0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
-0.0%
0.2%
0.9%
2.2%
H
.
.
.
.
1.5%
3.7%
5.6%
4.9%
5.1%
4.3%
4.5%
4.2%
3.4%
B
1.0%
2.8%
6.1%
1.2%
-0.0%
2.0%
2.5%
2.7%
2.7%
2.1%
2.3%
2.0%
1.7%
L
.
.
.
.
-1.5%
0.5%
0.2%
0.9%
0.8%
0.2%
0.5%
0.2%
0.2%
H
.
.
.
.
3.6%
5.0%
9.4%
8.7%
8.9%
8.3%
8.8%
7.5%
5.4%
B
20%
13%
-6.8%
0.7%
1.3%
2.9%
5.3%
5.4%
5.5%
4.8%
5.1%
4.3%
3.1%
L
.
.
.
.
-0.8%
1.1%
1.9%
2.8%
2.8%
2.2%
2.5%
1.8%
1.1%
H
.
.
.
.
-3.1%
11%
7.7%
6.7%
6.6%
6.0%
6.2%
5.8%
.
B
5.7%
16%
-24%
-19%
-5.3%
9.0%
4.3%
4.3%
4.2%
3.6%
3.8%
3.3%
.
L
.
.
.
.
-7.5%
7.2%
1.4%
2.2%
2.1%
1.6%
1.8%
1.2%
.
H
.
.
.
.
3.9%
5.9%
8.5%
7.6%
7.9%
7.5%
8.0%
7.0%
.
B
-8.1%
3.3%
7.6%
0.3%
2.0%
3.9%
4.5%
4.4%
4.6%
4.1%
4.3%
4.0%
.
L
.
.
.
.
0.3%
2.2%
1.2%
1.9%
1.9%
1.4%
1.7%
1.5%
.
H
.
.
.
.
3.7%
3.2%
3.8%
2.9%
3.6%
2.9%
3.0%
3.3%
3.4%
B
-0.2%
2.4%
2.6%
3.4%
2.9%
2.5%
2.4%
2.1%
2.3%
1.9%
2.0%
2.3%
2.7%
L
.
.
.
.
2.1%
1.7%
1.2%
1.1%
1.3%
0.3%
0.6%
1.2%
1.9%
H
.
.
.
.
1.2%
1.6%
1.7%
1.5%
5.3%
2.4%
2.1%
2.2%
0.7%
B
4.2%
4.0%
1.4%
-2.5%
-0.0%
-0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.4%
0.7%
0.8%
0.6%
-0.3%
L
.
.
.
.
-0.9%
-1.6%
-0.9%
-0.4%
-0.1%
-0.8%
-0.7%
-0.8%
-1.3%
H
.
.
.
.
4.5%
5.0%
7.3%
6.1%
6.3%
5.3%
5.4%
5.7%
4.5%
B
4.6%
1.1%
1.4%
-0.3%
2.8%
3.1%
3.7%
3.4%
3.5%
3.0%
3.2%
3.3%
2.5%
L
.
.
.
.
1.2%
1.5%
0.6%
1.8%
1.3%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.0%
H
.
.
.
.
4.9%
4.7%
6.2%
5.6%
6.3%
5.5%
5.6%
5.5%
5.5%
B
-0.0%
5.3%
17%
6.1%
3.2%
3.3%
3.3%
3.5%
3.8%
3.2%
3.4%
3.4%
3.9%
L
.
.
.
.
1.7%
1.9%
1.3%
1.8%
2.0%
1.4%
1.6%
1.6%
2.5%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
75
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
IFR Movements (Growth)
IFR Movements (Growth)
Santa Maria FIR
Serbia&Montenegro
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
Ukraine
UK
ESRA02
EU27
AAGR
RP2
2022/ 2019/2014
2015
AAGR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
H
.
.
.
.
7.5%
3.9%
4.6%
4.0%
4.1%
3.4%
3.6%
4.4%
5.7%
B
-3.9%
2.7%
2.7%
8.9%
6.2%
2.9%
2.7%
2.6%
2.7%
2.2%
2.4%
3.1%
4.6%
L
.
.
.
.
5.0%
1.9%
1.1%
1.3%
1.4%
0.8%
1.1%
1.8%
3.6%
H
.
.
.
.
3.1%
3.8%
5.8%
5.0%
5.4%
4.7%
4.9%
4.7%
.
B
-4.1%
-3.1%
6.9%
9.3%
1.2%
2.4%
3.0%
3.1%
3.4%
2.7%
2.9%
2.7%
.
L
.
.
.
.
-0.7%
0.9%
0.8%
1.4%
1.6%
1.0%
1.2%
0.9%
.
H
.
.
.
.
7.5%
4.9%
6.1%
5.4%
6.1%
5.3%
5.5%
5.8%
6.2%
B
-0.3%
4.4%
9.8%
7.2%
5.8%
3.5%
3.1%
3.3%
3.5%
3.0%
3.2%
3.6%
4.6%
L
.
.
.
.
4.2%
2.0%
1.0%
1.6%
1.7%
1.1%
1.3%
1.8%
3.2%
H
.
.
.
.
3.8%
4.1%
5.3%
4.5%
4.9%
4.1%
4.3%
4.4%
3.5%
B
-2.0%
-4.8%
5.8%
-0.3%
2.0%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
3.0%
2.4%
2.6%
2.6%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
0.3%
1.3%
0.5%
1.1%
1.3%
0.7%
1.0%
0.9%
0.6%
H
.
.
.
.
8.5%
4.4%
5.4%
4.2%
4.3%
3.7%
3.6%
4.9%
5.2%
B
-6.5%
-1.9%
3.9%
3.3%
6.7%
3.0%
2.6%
2.5%
2.7%
1.8%
2.0%
3.0%
3.6%
L
.
.
.
.
5.0%
1.6%
0.3%
0.8%
1.0%
0.2%
0.5%
1.3%
2.2%
H
.
.
.
.
3.3%
2.7%
4.0%
3.2%
4.5%
3.2%
3.2%
3.4%
2.9%
B
-0.1%
0.9%
1.2%
1.6%
2.1%
1.4%
2.0%
1.8%
2.0%
1.4%
1.6%
1.7%
1.8%
L
.
.
.
.
1.0%
0.2%
-0.1%
0.7%
0.5%
-0.1%
0.1%
0.3%
0.7%
H
.
.
.
.
3.9%
3.1%
4.2%
3.5%
3.7%
2.7%
2.7%
3.4%
3.2%
B
-1.7%
-2.4%
1.4%
1.2%
2.5%
1.8%
2.0%
2.0%
2.1%
1.4%
1.7%
2.0%
1.9%
L
.
.
.
.
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.6%
0.6%
0.0%
0.4%
0.5%
0.8%
H
.
.
.
.
4.5%
5.6%
7.1%
6.9%
7.1%
6.5%
6.8%
6.4%
.
B
2.6%
7.1%
11%
6.8%
2.6%
4.5%
4.6%
4.7%
4.7%
4.2%
4.4%
4.2%
.
L
.
.
.
.
1.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.3%
2.5%
2.4%
.
H
.
.
.
.
-3.7%
7.7%
7.9%
6.7%
6.8%
6.1%
6.3%
5.3%
.
B
2.9%
6.0%
-35%
-33%
-6.0%
5.8%
4.3%
4.1%
4.1%
3.6%
3.8%
2.7%
.
L
.
.
.
.
-8.1%
4.0%
1.3%
2.0%
2.0%
1.5%
1.8%
0.6%
.
H
.
.
.
.
3.8%
2.9%
3.7%
2.7%
3.4%
2.5%
2.5%
3.1%
3.1%
B
-1.4%
0.6%
2.0%
2.4%
2.7%
2.2%
2.0%
1.9%
2.1%
1.4%
1.3%
1.9%
2.2%
L
.
.
.
.
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.9%
1.0%
0.2%
0.5%
0.8%
1.3%
H
.
.
.
.
3.9%
3.3%
4.2%
3.6%
4.2%
3.4%
3.5%
3.7%
.
B
-2.6%
-1.0%
2.1%
1.8%
2.5%
2.1%
2.1%
2.2%
2.5%
1.8%
2.0%
2.2%
.
L
.
.
.
.
1.2%
0.8%
0.3%
0.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.6%
0.7%
.
H
.
.
.
.
3.8%
3.2%
4.2%
3.5%
4.0%
3.2%
3.3%
3.6%
3.2%
B
-3.0%
-1.6%
1.9%
1.6%
2.4%
2.0%
1.9%
2.1%
2.3%
1.7%
1.9%
2.0%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
1.1%
0.7%
0.1%
0.8%
0.9%
0.2%
0.5%
0.6%
0.9%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
76
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
IFR Movements (Growth)
IFR Movements (Growth)
ECAC
ESRA08
SES-SJU
Baltic FAB
BLUE MED FAB
Danube FAB
FAB CE
FABEC
NEFAB
South West FAB
UK-Ireland FAB
DK-SE FAB
AAGR
RP2
2022/ 2019/2014
2015
AAGR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
H
.
.
.
.
3.8%
3.4%
4.3%
3.7%
4.3%
3.5%
3.6%
3.8%
3.3%
B
-2.2%
-1.1%
1.7%
1.5%
2.4%
2.1%
2.1%
2.3%
2.5%
1.9%
2.1%
2.2%
2.1%
L
.
.
.
.
1.1%
0.8%
0.3%
0.9%
1.0%
0.4%
0.6%
0.7%
0.9%
H
.
.
.
.
3.8%
3.3%
4.3%
3.7%
4.2%
3.4%
3.6%
3.8%
3.3%
B
-2.4%
-1.1%
1.7%
1.5%
2.4%
2.0%
2.1%
2.2%
2.5%
1.9%
2.0%
2.2%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
1.0%
0.8%
0.3%
0.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.6%
0.7%
0.9%
H
.
.
.
.
3.6%
3.2%
4.1%
3.4%
4.1%
3.3%
3.4%
3.6%
3.2%
B
-2.6%
-1.5%
1.9%
1.5%
2.2%
1.9%
1.9%
2.0%
2.3%
1.7%
1.8%
2.0%
1.9%
L
.
.
.
.
0.9%
0.7%
0.1%
0.8%
0.8%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
H
.
.
.
.
3.8%
5.1%
7.2%
6.0%
6.2%
5.2%
5.3%
5.5%
4.5%
B
3.6%
1.0%
1.5%
0.3%
2.1%
3.3%
3.6%
3.4%
3.4%
2.9%
3.1%
3.1%
2.5%
L
.
.
.
.
0.5%
1.6%
0.6%
1.8%
1.2%
0.7%
0.9%
1.1%
1.0%
H
.
.
.
.
3.1%
3.9%
5.7%
4.9%
5.3%
4.6%
4.8%
4.6%
3.9%
B
-2.4%
-0.8%
4.0%
2.0%
1.3%
2.2%
2.8%
2.8%
3.1%
2.5%
2.8%
2.5%
2.2%
L
.
.
.
.
-0.4%
0.8%
0.4%
1.1%
1.3%
0.7%
1.0%
0.7%
0.8%
H
.
.
.
.
4.5%
4.9%
6.2%
5.5%
6.0%
5.2%
5.4%
5.4%
5.8%
B
-1.5%
1.5%
9.5%
8.0%
2.8%
3.5%
3.3%
3.4%
3.6%
3.1%
3.3%
3.3%
4.2%
L
.
.
.
.
1.2%
2.1%
1.2%
1.8%
1.8%
1.2%
1.5%
1.6%
2.8%
H
.
.
.
.
3.9%
4.0%
5.5%
4.6%
5.0%
4.3%
4.5%
4.5%
4.3%
B
-2.6%
-0.6%
4.0%
3.8%
2.3%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
3.0%
2.4%
2.6%
2.6%
2.8%
L
.
.
.
.
0.7%
1.3%
0.5%
1.3%
1.3%
0.7%
0.9%
1.0%
1.5%
H
.
.
.
.
3.8%
3.0%
3.8%
3.0%
3.5%
2.7%
2.7%
3.2%
3.1%
B
-1.9%
-1.2%
1.3%
1.7%
2.5%
1.9%
1.7%
1.9%
2.2%
1.5%
1.7%
1.9%
1.9%
L
.
.
.
.
1.2%
0.7%
0.1%
0.9%
0.8%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.9%
H
.
.
.
.
1.5%
2.3%
3.0%
2.6%
5.0%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
1.6%
B
1.3%
1.1%
1.8%
-1.5%
0.2%
0.4%
1.3%
1.4%
1.7%
1.1%
1.2%
1.0%
0.4%
L
.
.
.
.
-0.9%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.0%
0.2%
-0.5%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.8%
H
.
.
.
.
8.5%
4.4%
5.4%
4.2%
4.3%
3.7%
3.7%
4.9%
5.2%
B
-9.8%
-3.3%
3.7%
3.4%
6.7%
2.9%
2.6%
2.5%
2.6%
1.8%
2.0%
3.0%
3.6%
L
.
.
.
.
4.9%
1.5%
0.3%
0.8%
0.9%
0.2%
0.5%
1.3%
2.2%
H
.
.
.
.
3.8%
3.0%
3.7%
2.8%
3.4%
2.4%
2.5%
3.1%
3.1%
B
-1.5%
0.7%
2.0%
2.5%
2.6%
2.2%
2.0%
1.9%
2.1%
1.4%
1.3%
1.9%
2.3%
L
.
.
.
.
1.5%
1.1%
0.6%
0.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.5%
0.8%
1.3%
H
.
.
.
.
3.9%
2.8%
3.7%
3.0%
4.3%
2.9%
3.0%
3.4%
2.8%
B
-3.0%
2.2%
0.6%
0.6%
2.7%
1.5%
1.8%
1.7%
1.9%
1.3%
1.5%
1.8%
1.7%
L
.
.
.
.
1.6%
0.3%
-0.1%
0.6%
0.5%
-0.2%
0.1%
0.4%
0.6%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
77
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
IFR Movements (Growth)
IFR Movements (Growth)
EU28
SES-RP2
AAGR
RP2
2022/ 2019/2014
2015
AAGR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
H
.
.
.
.
3.8%
3.2%
4.2%
3.5%
4.0%
3.2%
3.3%
3.6%
3.2%
B
-3.0%
-1.7%
1.9%
1.6%
2.4%
2.0%
1.9%
2.1%
2.3%
1.7%
1.9%
2.0%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
1.1%
0.7%
0.1%
0.8%
0.9%
0.2%
0.5%
0.6%
0.9%
H
.
.
.
.
3.6%
3.1%
4.1%
3.4%
4.0%
3.2%
3.3%
3.5%
3.1%
B
-2.7%
-1.6%
1.9%
1.4%
2.2%
1.8%
1.9%
2.0%
2.3%
1.6%
1.8%
1.9%
1.9%
L
.
.
.
.
0.9%
0.6%
0.1%
0.7%
0.8%
0.1%
0.4%
0.5%
0.8%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
78
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
Annex 5
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Two-year en-route service unit
forecast per state
Figure 58. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units 2016-2017.
EB
ED
LF
EG
EH
EI
LS
LP
LO
LE
GC
AZ
LG
LT
LM
LI
LC
LH
EN
EK
LJ
LR
LK
ES
LZ
LD
LB
LW
LU
EF
LA
LQ
UD
LY
EP
EY
EE
EV
UK
UG
Charging Area
Belgium/Luxembourg
A
Germany
France
UK
Netherlands
Ireland
Switzerland
Lisbon FIR
Austria
Spain
Canary Islands
Santa Maria FIR
Greece
Turkey
Malta
Italy
Cyprus
Hungary
Norway
Denmark
Slovenia
Romania
Czech Republic
Sweden
Slovakia
Croatia
Bulgaria
FYROM
Moldova
Finland
Albania
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Armenia
Serbia-Montenegro-KFOR B
Poland
Lithuania
Estonia
Latvia C
Ukraine D
Georgia
Charging Area
CRCO88
ESRA02
CRCO11
CRCO14
RP1 Region A
RP2 Region A
Total D
2015
Actual TSU
2,454,178
12,976,261
18,867,771
10,153,905
2,892,654
4,182,450
1,454,786
3,150,186
2,739,285
8,997,417
1,402,349
4,661,620
4,898,818
14,181,607
823,344
8,171,509
1,547,646
2,695,133
2,313,891
1,583,445
466,264
4,570,684
2,531,815
3,354,938
1,071,382
1,790,210
3,222,750
263,988
73,816
760,383
484,426
870,175
125,671
1,974,864
3,880,013
492,283
815,648
801,836
1,285,878
805,195
73,932,864
128,254,487
136,883,755
137,688,950
113,273,025
115,063,235
139,790,476
2016
STATFOR
Forecast
TSU
2,547,621
13,431,295
19,345,480
10,476,362
2,994,307
4,291,573
1,518,131
3,314,673
2,798,843
9,575,125
1,495,176
4,876,084
5,048,426
14,460,661
861,107
8,413,683
1,529,487
2,798,069
2,366,877
1,617,789
484,547
4,686,276
2,630,535
3,419,089
1,113,916
1,787,179
3,355,140
273,938
67,442
756,154
454,266
894,929
112,631
2,036,465
3,996,085
497,659
838,139
802,817
1,163,199
815,599
2016
STATFOR
Forecast
TSU
76,664,671
132,334,985
141,129,838
141,945,437
117,004,381
118,791,560
143,946,775
2016/2015
Forecast
Growth
3.8%
3.5%
2.5%
3.2%
3.5%
2.6%
4.4%
5.2%
2.2%
6.4%
6.6%
4.6%
3.1%
2.0%
4.6%
3.0%
-1.2%
3.8%
2.3%
2.2%
3.9%
2.5%
3.9%
1.9%
4.0%
-0.2%
4.1%
3.8%
-8.6%
-0.6%
-6.2%
2.8%
-10.4%
3.1%
3.0%
1.1%
2.8%
0.1%
-9.5%
1.3%
2016/2015
Forecast
Growth
3.7%
3.2%
3.1%
3.1%
3.3%
3.2%
3.0%
2017
STATFOR
Forecast
TSU
2,617,389
13,689,17
2
19,903,53
6
10,701,23
5
3,077,473
4,364,560
1,545,488
3,426,687
2,877,324
9,852,105
1,540,318
5,049,330
5,183,109
15,272,64
4
880,427
8,554,827
1,576,134
2,883,973
2,396,264
1,646,446
496,217
4,821,906
2,708,096
3,477,574
1,142,495
1,819,382
3,464,638
282,260
77,699
767,381
471,200
917,170
117,936
2,089,659
4,099,221
511,548
861,498
823,923
1,233,072
845,185
2017
STATFOR
Forecast
TSU
78,644,617
136,096,086
145,126,744
145,971,929
119,890,961
121,710,343
148,066,499
2017/2016
Forecast
Growth
2.7%
1.9%
2.9%
2.1%
2.8%
1.7%
1.8%
3.4%
2.8%
2.9%
3.0%
3.6%
2.7%
5.6%
2.2%
1.7%
3.0%
3.1%
1.2%
1.8%
2.4%
2.9%
2.9%
1.7%
2.6%
1.8%
3.3%
3.0%
15.2%
1.5%
3.7%
2.5%
4.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.8%
2.8%
2.6%
6.0%
3.6%
2017/2016
Forecast
Growth
2.6%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.5%
2.5%
2.9%
2016 States
2016
Forecast STATFOR/
TSU
States
2,510,000
1.5%
13,057,000
2.9%
19,177,000
0.9%
10,435,000
0.4%
2,825,835
6.0%
4,049,624
6.0%
1,470,066
3.3%
3,104,536
6.8%
2,777,000
0.8%
8,936,000
7.2%
1,528,000
-2.1%
4,336,772
12.4%
4,318,281
16.9%
15,002,648
-3.6%
621,000
38.7%
8,866,051
-5.1%
1,425,773
7.3%
2,364,165
18.4%
2,367,954
-0.0%
1,571,000
3.0%
499,637
-3.0%
4,117,019
13.8%
2,637,000
-0.2%
3,303,000
3.5%
1,126,000
-1.1%
1,783,000
0.2%
2,667,000
25.8%
282,000
-2.9%
77,000
-12.4%
812,000
-6.9%
522,080
-13.0%
917,937
-2.5%
135,000
-16.6%
2,017,944
0.9%
4,544,000
-12.1%
508,601
-2.2%
801,575
4.6%
824,000
-2.6%
.
.
840,510
-3.0%
2016
2016
States STATFOR/
Forecast
States
TSU
74,206,834
3.3%
128,047,360
3.3%
137,516,922
2.6%
138,357,432
2.6%
113,244,116
3.3%
115,027,116
3.3%
139,159,007
3.4%
(A)
For Germany, hence for SES29 and RP2, series, includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic. 69,922 service units
concerned for 2015. Estimated number for the coming years is previously 75,000 per year.
(B) The charging zone over Serbia and Montenegro has been renamed Serbia-Montenegro-KFOR (following the change in the naming convention, see
Final minutes of the 103rd session of the Enlarged Committee dated 19-20.11.2014).
(C) Latvia has only joined EUROCONTROL member states in 2011. Before that date, only yearly data was available for the TSU
(D) Ukraine is not part of the CRCO but has asked STATFOR to produce an individual forecast for them as they did not have this capacity in 2012. In the
TOTAL column the 2016 states forecast and the percentage difference between, the 2016 States and STATFOR forecast does not account for Ukraine
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
79
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Figure 59. Forecast Summary: Annual chargeable en-route service units 2016-2017.
2015
Actual TSU
2016
STATFOR
Forecast
TSU
2017
STATFOR
Forecast
TSU
2015
Actual
Exempted
SU in %
2015 Actual
Chargeable
SU in %
2016
Chargeable
SU
Estimate
2017
Chargeable
SU
Estimate
2,454,178
12,976,261
2,547,621
13,431,295
2,617,389
13,689,172
0.8%
1.0%
99.2%
99.0%
2,527,100
13,296,000
2,596,300
13,551,300
EB
ED
Charging Area
Belgium/Luxembourg
A
Germany
LF
France
18,867,771
19,345,480
19,903,536
1.0%
99.0%
19,155,800
19,708,400
EG
UK
10,153,905
10,476,362
10,701,235
1.6%
98.4%
10,313,800
10,535,200
EH
Netherlands
2,892,654
2,994,307
3,077,473
1.3%
98.7%
2,956,800
3,038,900
EI
Ireland
4,182,450
4,291,573
4,364,560
1.3%
98.7%
4,235,900
4,308,000
LS
Switzerland
1,454,786
1,518,131
1,545,488
0.3%
99.7%
1,513,700
1,540,900
LP
Lisbon FIR
3,150,186
3,314,673
3,426,687
1.1%
98.9%
3,277,000
3,387,800
LO
Austria
2,739,285
2,798,843
2,877,324
0.5%
99.5%
2,785,600
2,863,700
LE
Spain
8,997,417
9,575,125
9,852,105
1.1%
98.9%
9,472,900
9,746,900
GC
Canary Islands
1,402,349
1,495,176
1,540,318
0.9%
99.1%
1,482,300
1,527,000
AZ
Santa Maria FIR
4,661,620
4,876,084
5,049,330
2.0%
98.0%
4,776,400
4,946,100
LG
Greece
4,898,818
5,048,426
5,183,109
2.5%
97.5%
4,923,000
5,054,400
LT
Turkey
14,181,607
14,460,661
15,272,644
0.7%
99.3%
14,365,000
15,171,600
LM
Malta
823,344
861,107
880,427
3.6%
96.4%
829,800
848,400
LI
Italy
8,171,509
8,413,683
8,554,827
1.9%
98.1%
8,255,800
8,394,300
LC
Cyprus
1,547,646
1,529,487
1,576,134
1.7%
98.3%
1,504,100
1,550,000
LH
Hungary
2,695,133
2,798,069
2,883,973
1.3%
98.7%
2,762,400
2,847,200
EN
Norway
2,313,891
2,366,877
2,396,264
0.9%
99.1%
2,346,100
2,375,200
EK
Denmark
1,583,445
1,617,789
1,646,446
0.7%
99.3%
1,606,700
1,635,200
LJ
Slovenia
466,264
484,547
496,217
0.5%
99.5%
482,200
493,800
LR
Romania
4,570,684
4,686,276
4,821,906
1.0%
99.0%
4,637,300
4,771,500
LK
Czech Republic
2,531,815
2,630,535
2,708,096
1.9%
98.1%
2,581,200
2,657,300
ES
Sweden
3,354,938
3,419,089
3,477,574
0.5%
99.5%
3,401,700
3,459,900
LZ
Slovakia
1,071,382
1,113,916
1,142,495
1.5%
98.5%
1,097,600
1,125,800
LD
Croatia
1,790,210
1,787,179
1,819,382
0.3%
99.7%
1,782,200
1,814,300
LB
Bulgaria
3,222,750
3,355,140
3,464,638
1.1%
98.9%
3,318,200
3,426,500
LW
FYROM
263,988
273,938
282,260
0.1%
99.9%
273,800
282,100
LU
Moldova
73,816
67,442
77,699
0.1%
99.9%
67,400
77,600
EF
Finland
760,383
756,154
767,381
0.5%
99.5%
752,400
763,600
LA
Albania
484,426
454,266
471,200
0.7%
99.3%
451,100
467,900
LQ
Bosnia-Herzegovina
870,175
894,929
917,170
0.1%
99.9%
894,300
916,500
UD
Armenia
125,671
112,631
117,936
0.1%
99.9%
112,500
117,800
LY
Serbia-MontenegroKFOR B
1,974,864
2,036,465
2,089,659
0.1%
99.9%
2,034,600
2,087,700
EP
Poland
3,880,013
3,996,085
4,099,221
0.6%
99.4%
3,970,400
4,072,900
EY
Lithuania
492,283
497,659
511,548
0.8%
99.2%
493,500
507,300
EE
Estonia
815,648
838,139
861,498
0.0%
100.0%
838,000
861,400
EV
Latvia
801,836
802,817
823,923
0.8%
99.2%
796,400
817,300
UK
Ukraine
1,285,878
1,163,199
1,233,072
0.5%
99.5%
1,157,400
1,227,000
UG
Georgia
805,195
815,599
845,185
1.3%
98.7%
804,600
833,800
CRCO88
73,932,864
76,664,671
78,644,617
1.1%
98.9%
75,793,600
77,751,100
ESRA02
128,254,487
132,334,985
136,096,086
1.2%
98.8%
130,782,500
134,499,500
CRCO11
136,883,755
141,129,838
145,126,744
1.1%
98.9%
139,535,900
143,487,700
CRCO14
137,688,950
141,945,437
145,971,929
1.1%
98.9%
140,340,500
144,321,400
RP1 Region A
113,273,025
117,004,381
119,890,961
1.2%
98.8%
115,614,300
118,466,500
RP2 Region A
115,063,235
118,791,560
121,710,343
1.2%
98.8%
117,397,000
120,281,500
Total
(A)
(B)
139,790,476
143,946,775
148,066,499
1.1%
98.9%
142,337,000
146,410,600
For Germany, hence for RP1 and RP2, series, includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational
Air Traffic, 69,922 service units concerned for 2015. Estimated number for the coming years is previously 75,000 per
year.
The charging zone over Serbia and Montenegro has been renamed Serbia-Montenegro-KFOR (following the change
in the naming convention, see Final minutes of the 103rd session of the Enlarged Committee dated 19-20.11.2014).
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
80
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
Annex 6
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Seven-year en-route service
units forecast per state
Figure 60. Forecast of the total number of en-route service units (thousands) per State.
Total en-route Service Units (Thousands)
Total service
units
(thousands)
Albania
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2022/
2015
Total
Growth
RP2
2019/
2014
AAGR
H
.
.
.
.
460
482
509
534
563
589
617
27%
.
B
443
456
469
484
454
471
486
501
519
533
549
13%
.
L
.
.
.
.
449
461
466
472
481
487
494
2%
.
H
.
.
.
.
122
130
139
150
161
173
186
48%
.
B
154
149
142
126
113
118
123
130
137
144
152
21%
.
L
.
.
.
.
104
106
108
112
116
119
123
-2%
.
H
.
.
.
.
2,841
2,952
3,109
3,240
3,388
3,516
3,656
33%
4.1%
B
2,469
2,456
2,645
2,739
2,799
2,877
2,959
3,035
3,119
3,186
3,259
19%
2.8%
L
.
.
.
.
2,757
2,804
2,822
2,861
2,895
2,912
2,935
7%
1.6%
Belgium
H
.
.
.
.
2,578
2,674
2,797
2,885
2,991
3,073
3,160
29%
4.1%
/Luxembourg
B
2,232
2,277
2,362
2,454
2,548
2,617
2,689
2,756
2,830
2,884
2,942
20%
3.1%
L
.
.
.
.
2,517
2,559
2,581
2,614
2,651
2,670
2,695
10%
2.1%
Bosnia-
H
.
.
.
.
914
947
1,003
1,053
1,109
1,160
1,215
40%
.
Herzegovina
B
680
654
783
870
895
917
945
974
1,007
1,034
1,064
22%
.
L
.
.
.
.
877
888
896
907
922
930
941
8%
.
H
.
.
.
.
3,404
3,554
3,766
3,965
4,197
4,411
4,645
44%
7.6%
B
2,020
2,058
2,744
3,223
3,355
3,465
3,581
3,701
3,832
3,947
4,073
26%
6.2%
L
.
.
.
.
3,307
3,374
3,424
3,485
3,549
3,594
3,648
13%
4.9%
Canary Islands H
.
.
.
.
1,525
1,596
1,675
1,742
1,813
1,878
1,951
39%
3.2%
B
1,599
1,516
1,492
1,402
1,495
1,540
1,574
1,606
1,639
1,664
1,692
21%
1.5%
L
.
.
.
.
1,466
1,487
1,484
1,488
1,492
1,488
1,488
H
.
.
.
.
1,824
1,889
1,992
2,086
2,192
2,287
2,390
34%
3.5%
B
1,679
1,695
1,760
1,790
1,787
1,819
1,870
1,924
1,985
2,035
2,090
17%
1.8%
L
.
.
.
.
1,750
1,751
1,762
1,783
1,809
1,825
1,845
3%
0.3%
H
.
.
.
.
1,551
1,620
1,745
1,874
2,017
2,158
2,314
50%
5.2%
B
1,303
1,327
1,454
1,548
1,529
1,576
1,645
1,724
1,807
1,884
1,970
27%
3.5%
L
.
.
.
.
1,509
1,534
1,562
1,604
1,647
1,682
1,722
11%
2.0%
H
.
.
.
.
2,672
2,786
2,937
3,062
3,209
3,343
3,487
38%
5.1%
B
2,305
2,374
2,393
2,532
2,631
2,708
2,778
2,847
2,929
2,998
3,074
21%
3.5%
L
.
.
.
.
2,589
2,631
2,643
2,690
2,724
2,742
2,766
9%
2.4%
Armenia
Austria
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech
Republic
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
6% -0.0%
81
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Total en-route Service Units (Thousands)
Total service
units
(thousands)
Denmark
Estonia
FYROM
Finland
France
Georgia
16
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2022/
2015
Total
Growth
RP2
2019/
2014
AAGR
H
.
.
.
.
1,635
1,678
1,739
1,792
1,869
1,925
1,981
25%
3.2%
B
1,429
1,524
1,532
1,583
1,618
1,646
1,679
1,712
1,750
1,776
1,806
14%
2.2%
L
.
.
.
.
1,600
1,616
1,622
1,634
1,649
1,650
1,656
5%
1.3%
H
.
.
.
.
850
883
930
975
1,028
1,075
1,126
38%
4.3%
B
725
741
790
816
838
861
885
910
937
961
988
21%
2.9%
L
.
.
.
.
827
840
845
856
868
874
883
8%
1.6%
H
.
.
.
.
280
292
309
324
343
360
378
43%
.
B
174
178
246
264
274
282
291
300
311
320
330
25%
.
L
.
.
.
.
268
272
275
278
283
287
291
10%
.
H
.
.
.
.
768
785
810
836
868
895
924
22%
1.0%
B
790
770
796
760
756
767
778
792
808
820
833
10% -0.1%
L
.
.
.
.
744
750
749
753
758
759
761
0% -1.1%
H
.
.
.
.
19,515
20,293
21,230 21,987
22,827
23,465
24,140
28%
3.5%
B
17,515
17,900
18,497
18,868
19,345
19,904
20,376 20,854
21,365
21,733
22,126
17%
2.4%
L
.
.
.
.
19,178
19,527
19,604 19,791
19,982
20,039
20,146
7%
1.4%
H
.
.
.
.
844
884
958
1,034
1,118
1,199
1,289
60%
.
B
709
747
752
805
816
845
892
943
996
1,047
1,102
37%
.
L
.
.
.
.
788
806
832
865
897
924
955
19%
.
H
.
.
.
.
13,555
13,940
14,519 15,006
15,587
16,059
16,566
28%
3.1%
B
12,513
12,570
12,881
12,976
13,431
13,689
13,964 14,246
14,584
14,836
15,123
17%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
13,309
13,435
13,491 13,633
13,777
13,825
13,913
7%
1.1%
H
.
.
.
.
5,141
5,372
5,706
6,033
6,414
6,774
7,176
46%
5.5%
B
4,358
4,216
4,618
4,899
5,048
5,183
5,362
5,556
5,781
5,981
6,200
27%
3.8%
L
.
.
.
.
4,957
5,001
5,056
5,153
5,266
5,351
5,450
11%
2.2%
H
.
.
.
.
2,846
2,955
3,129
3,294
3,489
3,668
3,863
43%
6.5%
B
2,023
2,101
2,406
2,695
2,798
2,884
2,973
3,069
3,178
3,273
3,376
25%
5.0%
L
.
.
.
.
2,750
2,813
2,841
2,887
2,939
2,973
3,015
12%
3.7%
H
.
.
.
.
4,337
4,436
4,630
4,779
4,907
5,001
5,095
22%
4.0%
B
3,806
3,813
3,922
4,182
4,292
4,365
4,483
4,590
4,712
4,803
4,859
16%
3.2%
L
.
.
.
.
4,246
4,290
4,344
4,397
4,461
4,497
4,543
9%
2.3%
16
For Germany, hence for RP1 and RP2, series, includes service units for flight segments performed as
Operational Air Traffic. 69,922 service units were concerned for 2015. Estimated number for the
coming years is 75,000 per year.
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
82
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Total en-route Service Units (Thousands)
Total service
units
(thousands)
Italy
Latvia
Lisbon FIR
Lithuania
Malta
Moldova
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Romania
Santa Maria
FIR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022/
2015
Total
Growth
2022
RP2
2019/
2014
AAGR
H
.
.
.
.
8,554
8,769
9,247
9,665
10,127
10,531
10,974
34%
3.1%
B
8,139
8,117
8,314
8,172
8,414
8,555
8,792
9,023
9,279
9,482
9,712
19%
1.7%
L
.
.
.
.
8,275
8,354
8,396
8,475
8,568
8,610
8,680
6%
0.4%
H
.
.
.
.
820
856
901
945
997
1,042
1,092
36%
4.3%
B
707
734
767
802
803
824
843
864
887
906
928
16%
2.4%
L
.
.
.
.
786
793
793
798
805
806
810
1%
0.8%
H
.
.
.
.
3,354
3,512
3,699
3,854
4,018
4,166
4,330
37%
5.0%
B
2,782
2,877
3,020
3,150
3,315
3,427
3,513
3,596
3,687
3,758
3,835
22%
3.6%
L
.
.
.
.
3,275
3,344
3,348
3,369
3,394
3,401
3,417
8%
2.2%
H
.
.
.
.
508
532
562
589
619
645
674
37%
3.9%
B
430
451
487
492
498
512
524
539
553
564
577
17%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
487
491
492
497
502
503
505
3%
0.4%
H
.
.
.
.
887
930
1,019
1,113
1,219
1,328
1,453
76%
8.9%
B
641
735
727
823
861
880
933
990
1,051
1,110
1,175
43%
6.4%
L
.
.
.
.
836
833
859
889
921
949
980
19%
4.1%
H
.
.
.
.
76
90
96
102
109
115
122
66%
.
B
206
240
131
74
67
78
81
84
87
90
93
27%
.
L
.
.
.
.
59
66
66
68
69
70
71
-4%
.
H
.
.
.
.
3,027
3,137
3,261
3,362
3,495
3,602
3,716
28%
4.0%
B
2,587
2,702
2,767
2,893
2,994
3,077
3,151
3,219
3,297
3,360
3,426
18%
3.1%
L
.
.
.
.
2,962
3,014
3,045
3,077
3,117
3,132
3,153
9%
2.1%
H
.
.
.
.
2,408
2,480
2,551
2,622
2,763
2,854
2,945
27%
3.4%
B
1,846
2,051
2,221
2,314
2,367
2,396
2,435
2,480
2,535
2,574
2,619
13%
2.2%
L
.
.
.
.
2,327
2,326
2,325
2,332
2,349
2,350
2,356
2%
1.0%
H
.
.
.
.
4,035
4,184
4,455
4,693
4,959
5,195
5,448
40%
3.6%
B
3,854
3,984
3,931
3,880
3,996
4,099
4,237
4,366
4,504
4,621
4,752
22%
2.1%
L
.
.
.
.
3,958
4,018
4,042
4,113
4,164
4,191
4,230
9%
0.9%
H
.
.
.
.
4,785
4,998
5,282
5,566
5,907
6,223
6,567
44%
5.9%
B
3,575
3,752
4,182
4,571
4,686
4,822
4,968
5,136
5,323
5,490
5,674
24%
4.2%
L
.
.
.
.
4,588
4,646
4,698
4,779
4,871
4,937
5,015
10%
2.7%
H
.
.
.
.
4,955
5,160
5,391
5,626
5,870
6,085
6,319
36%
6.2%
B
3,874
4,021
4,166
4,662
4,876
5,049
5,190
5,348
5,507
5,646
5,793
24%
5.1%
L
.
.
.
.
4,797
4,939
5,005
5,093
5,178
5,238
5,309
14%
4.1%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
83
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Total en-route Service Units (Thousands)
Total service
units
(thousands)
SerbiaMontenegroKFOR 17
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
UK
Ukraine
ESRA02
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2022/
2015
Total
Growth
RP2
2019/
2014
AAGR
H
.
.
.
.
2,076
2,161
2,278
2,384
2,508
2,618
2,740
39%
.
B
1,719
1,639
1,752
1,975
2,036
2,090
2,149
2,210
2,282
2,341
2,407
22%
.
L
.
.
.
.
1,998
2,019
2,035
2,062
2,094
2,114
2,139
8%
.
H
.
.
.
.
1,134
1,178
1,238
1,300
1,376
1,447
1,525
42%
4.5%
B
922
985
1,044
1,071
1,114
1,142
1,169
1,203
1,244
1,280
1,320
23%
2.9%
L
.
.
.
.
1,094
1,107
1,110
1,124
1,142
1,154
1,169
9%
1.5%
H
.
.
.
.
492
510
537
561
588
612
637
37%
4.1%
B
425
411
459
466
485
496
510
524
540
553
567
22%
2.7%
L
.
.
.
.
478
483
487
492
499
503
508
9%
1.4%
H
.
.
.
.
9,656
10,031
10,582 11,029
11,514
11,942
12,392
38%
4.7%
B
8,444
8,447
8,768
8,997
9,575
9,852
10,121 10,376
10,659
10,865
11,090
23%
3.4%
L
.
.
.
.
9,496
9,682
9,723
9,808
9,909
9,938
9,994
11%
2.3%
H
.
.
.
.
3,463
3,565
3,717
3,848
4,039
4,181
4,329
29%
3.2%
B
3,126
3,209
3,285
3,355
3,419
3,478
3,558
3,634
3,719
3,783
3,856
15%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
3,376
3,393
3,402
3,439
3,468
3,474
3,488
4%
0.9%
H
.
.
.
.
1,538
1,581
1,646
1,704
1,768
1,816
1,866
28%
3.6%
B
1,399
1,385
1,427
1,455
1,518
1,545
1,575
1,608
1,644
1,671
1,702
17%
2.4%
L
.
.
.
.
1,498
1,511
1,513
1,522
1,534
1,537
1,545
6%
1.3%
H
.
.
.
.
14,668
15,679
16,903 18,203
19,639
21,055
22,614
59%
.
B
9,813
10,637
12,809
14,182
14,461
15,273
16,087 16,972
17,888
18,762
19,710
39%
.
L
.
.
.
.
14,262
14,862
15,373 15,934
16,499
16,993
17,531
24%
.
H
.
.
.
.
10,603
10,911
11,339 11,679
12,067
12,357
12,659
25%
3.2%
B
9,608
9,755
9,979
10,154
10,476
10,701
10,946 11,175
11,433
11,617
11,777
16%
2.3%
L
.
.
.
.
10,351
10,480
10,565 10,673
10,793
10,837
10,904
7%
1.4%
H
.
.
.
.
1,242
1,351
1,453
1,548
1,652
1,752
1,862
45%
.
B
4,588
4,931
2,771
1,286
1,163
1,233
1,284
1,336
1,389
1,438
1,492
16%
.
L
.
.
.
.
1,084
1,117
1,133
1,155
1,177
1,194
1,214
-6%
.
H
.
.
.
.
134,073
139,353
146,601 153,142
160,610
167,126
174,175
36%
.
B
113,602
116,097
123,048
128,254
132,335
136,096
140,030 144,079
148,522
152,180
156,102
22%
.
L
.
.
.
.
130,624
132,883
134,176 136,125
138,191
139,416
140,996
10%
.
17
The charging zone over Serbia and Montenegro has been renamed Serbia-Montenegro-KFOR
(following the change in the naming convention, see Final minutes of the 103rd session of the
Enlarged Committee dated 19-20.11.2014).
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
84
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Total en-route Service Units (Thousands)
Total service
units
(thousands)
BLUE MED
FAB
Baltic FAB
Danube FAB
FAB CE
FABEC
NEFAB
South West
FAB
UK-Ireland
FAB
DK-SE FAB
CRCO88
CRCO11
CRCO14
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2022/
2015
Total
Growth
RP2
2019/
2014
AAGR
H
.
.
.
.
16,132
16,692
17,717 18,685
19,776
20,791
21,917
42%
4.3%
B
14,441
14,395
15,113
15,441
15,853
16,194
16,733 17,293
17,918
18,457
19,057
23%
2.7%
L
.
.
.
.
15,578
15,722
15,873 16,121
16,402
16,592
16,832
9%
1.3%
H
.
.
.
.
4,544
4,716
5,016
5,282
5,577
5,840
6,122
40%
3.6%
B
4,284
4,434
4,418
4,372
4,494
4,611
4,761
4,905
5,057
5,185
5,329
22%
2.1%
L
.
.
.
.
4,445
4,509
4,535
4,611
4,666
4,694
4,735
8%
0.9%
H
.
.
.
.
8,190
8,552
9,048
9,531
10,104
10,634
11,212
44%
6.6%
B
5,595
5,810
6,925
7,793
8,041
8,287
8,548
8,837
9,155
9,437
9,747
25%
5.0%
L
.
.
.
.
7,895
8,020
8,122
8,264
8,420
8,531
8,663
11%
3.6%
H
.
.
.
.
12,723
13,217
13,945 14,596
15,352
16,033
16,773
38%
4.9%
B
10,503
10,676
11,492
12,164
12,508
12,845
13,204 13,577
14,002
14,359
14,751
21%
3.4%
L
.
.
.
.
12,295
12,477
12,561 12,744
12,929
13,038
13,179
8%
2.1%
H
.
.
.
.
40,213
41,625
43,453 44,944
46,667
48,015
49,448
28%
3.4%
B
36,246
36,834
37,934
38,646
39,837
40,833
41,754 42,682
43,720
44,485
45,318
17%
2.4%
L
.
.
.
.
39,465
40,047
40,235 40,637
41,061
41,203
41,453
7%
1.4%
H
.
.
.
.
4,845
5,004
5,192
5,378
5,657
5,866
6,086
30%
3.3%
B
4,068
4,296
4,573
4,692
4,764
4,849
4,942
5,047
5,167
5,261
5,367
14%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
4,685
4,708
4,712
4,740
4,779
4,789
4,810
3%
0.7%
H
.
.
.
.
14,535
15,139
15,956 16,626
17,345
17,987
18,673
38%
4.6%
B
12,825
12,840
13,279
13,550
14,385
14,819
15,208 15,578
15,985
16,286
16,617
23%
3.2%
L
.
.
.
.
14,237
14,513
14,555 14,666
14,795
14,828
14,899
10%
2.0%
H
.
.
.
.
14,940
15,346
15,969 16,458
16,974
17,357
17,754
24%
3.4%
B
13,414
13,568
13,902
14,336
14,768
15,066
15,429 15,765
16,145
16,420
16,636
16%
2.5%
L
.
.
.
.
14,597
14,770
14,909 15,070
15,254
15,334
15,447
8%
1.6%
H
.
.
.
.
5,098
5,243
5,456
5,641
5,908
6,106
6,310
28%
3.2%
B
4,555
4,732
4,817
4,938
5,037
5,124
5,236
5,346
5,469
5,560
5,662
15%
2.1%
L
.
.
.
.
4,977
5,009
5,024
5,072
5,117
5,124
5,144
4%
1.0%
H
.
.
.
.
77,485
80,222
83,878 86,895
90,246
92,961
95,851
30%
3.9%
B
68,828
69,718
71,927
73,933
76,665
78,645
80,541 82,408
84,476
86,022
87,624
19%
2.8%
L
.
.
.
.
75,853
77,072
77,526 78,327
79,182
79,514
80,043
8%
1.7%
H
.
.
.
.
143,007
148,645
156,448 163,490
171,525
178,548
186,147
36%
4.5%
B
121,589
124,162
131,379
136,884
141,130
145,127
149,337 153,663
158,410
162,325
166,531
22%
3.2%
L
.
.
.
.
139,281
141,659
143,007 145,087
147,274
148,568
150,239
10%
2.0%
H
.
.
.
.
143,850
149,529
157,405 164,524
172,643
179,748
187,436
36%
4.5%
B
122,298
124,910
132,130
137,689
141,945
145,972
150,229 154,606
159,406
163,372
167,633
22%
3.2%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
85
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Total en-route Service Units (Thousands)
Total service
units
(thousands)
RP1Region
RP2Region
Total
16
16
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2022/
2015
Total
Growth
RP2
2019/
2014
AAGR
L
.
.
.
.
140,069
142,465
143,840 145,952
148,170
149,492
151,194
10%
2.0%
H
.
.
.
.
118,482
122,698
128,758 134,003
140,059
145,181
150,690
33%
4.0%
B
103,572
105,235
109,910
113,273
117,004
119,891
123,000 126,131
129,625
132,379
135,330
19%
2.8%
L
.
.
.
.
115,544
117,135
117,867 119,235
120,691
121,378
122,376
8%
1.6%
H
.
.
.
.
120,307
124,587
130,750 136,089
142,252
147,468
153,080
33%
4.0%
B
105,251
106,930
111,670
115,063
118,792
121,710
124,870 128,055
131,610
134,414
137,421
19%
2.8%
L
.
.
.
.
117,295
118,886
119,630 121,018
122,500
123,203
124,221
8%
1.6%
H
.
.
.
.
145,942
151,764
159,788 167,047
175,323
182,575
190,424
36%
4.2%
B
127,611
130,582
135,692
139,790
143,947
148,066
152,398 156,852
161,733
165,770
170,112
22%
2.9%
L
.
.
.
.
141,980
144,423
145,818 147,963
150,215
151,560
153,291
10%
1.7%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
86
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
Annex 7
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Seven-year en-route service
units forecast per state (Growth)
Figure 61. Forecast of the total en-route service units growth per State.
Growth in Total En Route Service Units
Annual growth
Albania
Armenia
Austria
Belgium/Luxembourg
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Canary Islands
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
AAGR
2022/
2015
RP2
2019/
2014
AAGR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020 2021 2022
H
.
.
.
.
-5.1%
4.7%
5.7%
4.8%
5.5%
4.6%
4.8%
3.5%
.
B
-1.0%
2.9%
2.9%
3.3%
-6.2%
3.7%
3.1%
3.1%
3.5%
2.9%
3.0%
1.8%
.
L
.
.
.
.
-7.3%
2.8%
0.9%
1.5%
1.9%
1.2%
1.4%
0.3%
.
H
.
.
.
.
-3.2%
6.9%
6.6%
7.8%
7.8%
7.3%
7.4%
5.8%
.
B
-9.5%
-2.9%
-4.5%
-11.8%
-10.4%
4.7%
4.1%
5.7%
5.6%
5.2%
5.3%
2.7%
.
L
.
.
.
.
-17.6%
2.3%
1.7%
3.7%
3.5%
3.2%
3.3%
-0.3%
.
H
.
.
.
.
3.7%
3.9%
5.3%
4.2%
4.6%
3.8%
4.0%
4.2%
4.1%
B
-2.0%
-0.5%
7.7%
3.5%
2.2%
2.8%
2.8%
2.6%
2.8%
2.1%
2.3%
2.5%
2.8%
L
.
.
.
.
0.6%
1.7%
0.7%
1.4%
1.2%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.6%
H
.
.
.
.
5.1%
3.7%
4.6%
3.1%
3.7%
2.7%
2.8%
3.7%
4.1%
B
0.9%
2.0%
3.7%
3.9%
3.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.5%
2.7%
1.9%
2.0%
2.6%
3.1%
L
.
.
.
.
2.6%
1.7%
0.9%
1.3%
1.4%
0.7%
1.0%
1.3%
2.1%
H
.
.
.
.
5.0%
3.7%
5.9%
5.0%
5.3%
4.6%
4.8%
4.9%
.
B
-5.1%
-3.8%
19.7%
11.2%
2.8%
2.5%
3.1%
3.1%
3.3%
2.7%
2.9%
2.9%
.
L
.
.
.
.
0.7%
1.3%
0.9%
1.3%
1.6%
1.0%
1.2%
1.1%
.
H
.
.
.
.
5.6%
4.4%
6.0%
5.3%
5.8%
5.1%
5.3%
5.4%
7.6%
B
0.1%
1.9%
33.3%
17.5%
4.1%
3.3%
3.3%
3.4%
3.5%
3.0%
3.2%
3.4%
6.2%
L
.
.
.
.
2.6%
2.0%
1.5%
1.8%
1.8%
1.3%
1.5%
1.8%
4.9%
H
.
.
.
.
8.7%
4.6%
5.0%
4.0%
4.1%
3.6%
3.9%
4.8%
3.2%
B
-4.0%
-5.2%
-1.6%
-6.0%
6.6%
3.0%
2.2%
2.0%
2.0%
1.5%
1.7%
2.7%
1.5%
L
.
.
.
.
4.5%
1.4%
-0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
-0.3%
-0.0%
0.8%
-0.0%
H
.
.
.
.
1.9%
3.5%
5.4%
4.7%
5.1%
4.3%
4.5%
4.2%
3.5%
B
2.7%
0.9%
3.9%
1.7%
-0.2%
1.8%
2.8%
2.9%
3.2%
2.5%
2.7%
2.2%
1.8%
L
.
.
.
.
-2.2%
0.0%
0.6%
1.2%
1.5%
0.9%
1.1%
0.4%
0.3%
H
.
.
.
.
0.2%
4.5%
7.7%
7.4%
7.6%
7.0%
7.3%
5.9%
5.2%
B
-3.3%
1.8%
9.6%
6.4%
-1.2%
3.0%
4.4%
4.8%
4.8%
4.3%
4.5%
3.5%
3.5%
L
.
.
.
.
-2.5%
1.7%
1.9%
2.7%
2.7%
2.1%
2.4%
1.5%
2.0%
H
.
.
.
.
5.5%
4.2%
5.4%
4.3%
4.8%
4.2%
4.3%
4.7%
5.1%
B
-0.0%
3.0%
0.8%
5.8%
3.9%
2.9%
2.6%
2.5%
2.9%
2.4%
2.5%
2.8%
3.5%
L
.
.
.
.
2.3%
1.6%
0.5%
1.8%
1.3%
0.7%
0.9%
1.3%
2.4%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
87
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Growth in Total En Route Service Units
Annual growth
Denmark
Estonia
FYROM
Finland
France
Georgia
16
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
AAGR
2022/
2015
RP2
2019/
2014
AAGR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020 2021 2022
H
.
.
.
.
3.3%
2.6%
3.7%
3.1%
4.3%
3.0%
2.9%
3.3%
3.2%
B
-2.8%
6.6%
0.5%
3.4%
2.2%
1.8%
2.0%
2.0%
2.2%
1.5%
1.7%
1.9%
2.2%
L
.
.
.
.
1.1%
1.0%
0.4%
0.7%
0.9%
0.1%
0.3%
0.6%
1.3%
H
.
.
.
.
4.2%
4.0%
5.3%
4.8%
5.5%
4.6%
4.7%
4.7%
4.3%
B
2.9%
2.3%
6.6%
3.3%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.8%
3.0%
2.5%
2.8%
2.8%
2.9%
L
.
.
.
.
1.4%
1.6%
0.6%
1.3%
1.3%
0.7%
1.0%
1.1%
1.6%
H
.
.
.
.
5.9%
4.6%
5.7%
5.0%
5.7%
4.9%
5.2%
5.3%
.
B
-10.2%
1.9%
38.8%
7.1%
3.8%
3.0%
3.0%
3.1%
3.7%
3.0%
3.2%
3.2%
.
L
.
.
.
.
1.7%
1.5%
0.8%
1.2%
1.9%
1.3%
1.5%
1.4%
.
H
.
.
.
.
1.0%
2.2%
3.1%
3.2%
3.9%
3.1%
3.2%
2.8%
1.0%
B
-5.1%
-2.5%
3.3%
-4.4%
-0.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.8%
2.0%
1.5%
1.7%
1.3%
-0.1%
L
.
.
.
.
-2.1%
0.8%
-0.1%
0.5%
0.7%
0.1%
0.3%
0.0%
-1.1%
H
.
.
.
.
3.4%
4.0%
4.6%
3.6%
3.8%
2.8%
2.9%
3.6%
3.5%
B
-1.0%
2.2%
3.3%
2.0%
2.5%
2.9%
2.4%
2.3%
2.5%
1.7%
1.8%
2.3%
2.4%
L
.
.
.
.
1.6%
1.8%
0.4%
1.0%
1.0%
0.3%
0.5%
0.9%
1.4%
H
.
.
.
.
4.8%
4.8%
8.3%
7.9%
8.1%
7.3%
7.5%
7.0%
.
B
-2.5%
5.4%
0.6%
7.1%
1.3%
3.6%
5.5%
5.7%
5.6%
5.1%
5.3%
4.6%
.
L
.
.
.
.
-2.2%
2.3%
3.3%
3.9%
3.7%
3.1%
3.3%
2.5%
.
H
.
.
.
.
4.5%
2.8%
4.2%
3.4%
3.9%
3.0%
3.2%
3.6%
3.1%
B
-1.8%
0.5%
2.5%
0.7%
3.5%
1.9%
2.0%
2.0%
2.4%
1.7%
1.9%
2.2%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
2.6%
0.9%
0.4%
1.1%
1.1%
0.4%
0.6%
1.0%
1.1%
H
.
.
.
.
4.9%
4.5%
6.2%
5.7%
6.3%
5.6%
5.9%
5.6%
5.5%
B
-4.2%
-3.3%
9.5%
6.1%
3.1%
2.7%
3.4%
3.6%
4.1%
3.5%
3.7%
3.4%
3.8%
L
.
.
.
.
1.2%
0.9%
1.1%
1.9%
2.2%
1.6%
1.9%
1.5%
2.2%
H
.
.
.
.
5.6%
3.8%
5.9%
5.3%
5.9%
5.1%
5.3%
5.3%
6.5%
B
-2.1%
3.8%
14.5%
12.0%
3.8%
3.1%
3.1%
3.3%
3.5%
3.0%
3.2%
3.3%
5.0%
L
.
.
.
.
2.0%
2.3%
1.0%
1.6%
1.8%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
3.7%
H
.
.
.
.
3.7%
2.3%
4.4%
3.2%
2.7%
1.9%
1.9%
2.9%
4.0%
B
0.9%
0.2%
2.9%
6.6%
2.6%
1.7%
2.7%
2.4%
2.7%
1.9%
1.2%
2.2%
3.2%
L
.
.
.
.
1.5%
1.0%
1.3%
1.2%
1.4%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
2.3%
H
.
.
.
.
4.7%
2.5%
5.4%
4.5%
4.8%
4.0%
4.2%
4.3%
3.1%
B
-2.8%
-0.3%
2.4%
-1.7%
3.0%
1.7%
2.8%
2.6%
2.8%
2.2%
2.4%
2.5%
1.7%
L
.
.
.
.
1.3%
0.9%
0.5%
0.9%
1.1%
0.5%
0.8%
0.9%
0.4%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
88
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Growth in Total En Route Service Units
Annual growth
Latvia
Lisbon FIR
Lithuania
Malta
Moldova
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Romania
Santa Maria FIR
Serbia-Montenegro17
KFOR
AAGR
2022/
2015
RP2
2019/
2014
AAGR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020 2021 2022
H
.
.
.
.
2.2%
4.4%
5.3%
4.9%
5.4%
4.6%
4.7%
4.5%
4.3%
B
0.7%
3.8%
4.5%
4.6%
0.1%
2.6%
2.3%
2.6%
2.6%
2.2%
2.4%
2.1%
2.4%
L
.
.
.
.
-1.9%
0.8%
0.1%
0.7%
0.8%
0.2%
0.5%
0.1%
0.8%
H
.
.
.
.
6.5%
4.7%
5.3%
4.2%
4.2%
3.7%
3.9%
4.7%
5.0%
B
-1.4%
3.4%
5.0%
4.3%
5.2%
3.4%
2.5%
2.4%
2.5%
1.9%
2.0%
2.8%
3.6%
L
.
.
.
.
4.0%
2.1%
0.1%
0.6%
0.7%
0.2%
0.5%
1.2%
2.2%
H
.
.
.
.
3.3%
4.7%
5.5%
4.9%
5.0%
4.3%
4.4%
4.6%
3.9%
B
2.3%
4.9%
8.1%
1.0%
1.1%
2.8%
2.5%
2.7%
2.7%
2.1%
2.3%
2.3%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
-1.1%
0.9%
0.3%
1.0%
0.9%
0.2%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
H
.
.
.
.
7.7%
4.9%
9.5%
9.2%
9.5%
8.9%
9.5%
8.5%
8.9%
B
26.8%
14.7%
-1.1%
13.2%
4.6%
2.2%
6.0%
6.1%
6.2%
5.6%
5.9%
5.2%
6.4%
L
.
.
.
.
1.5%
-0.3%
3.0%
3.5%
3.6%
3.0%
3.3%
2.5%
4.1%
H
.
.
.
.
2.7%
18.6%
7.1%
6.4%
6.4%
5.8%
6.1%
7.5%
.
B
5.7%
16.8%
-45.5%
-43.7%
-8.6%
15.2%
3.9%
4.0%
4.0%
3.4%
3.6%
3.4%
.
L
.
.
.
.
-20.0%
11.1%
1.2%
2.0%
2.0%
1.4%
1.7%
-0.5%
.
H
.
.
.
.
4.6%
3.6%
4.0%
3.1%
4.0%
3.1%
3.2%
3.6%
4.0%
B
-0.3%
4.4%
2.4%
4.5%
3.5%
2.8%
2.4%
2.2%
2.4%
1.9%
2.0%
2.4%
3.1%
L
.
.
.
.
2.4%
1.8%
1.0%
1.0%
1.3%
0.5%
0.7%
1.2%
2.1%
H
.
.
.
.
4.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
5.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.5%
3.4%
B
7.8%
11.1%
8.3%
4.2%
2.3%
1.2%
1.6%
1.9%
2.2%
1.6%
1.7%
1.8%
2.2%
L
.
.
.
.
0.6%
-0.1%
-0.0%
0.3%
0.7%
0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
1.0%
H
.
.
.
.
4.0%
3.7%
6.5%
5.4%
5.7%
4.8%
4.9%
5.0%
3.6%
B
4.8%
3.4%
-1.3%
-1.3%
3.0%
2.6%
3.3%
3.1%
3.2%
2.6%
2.8%
2.9%
2.1%
L
.
.
.
.
2.0%
1.5%
0.6%
1.8%
1.2%
0.7%
0.9%
1.2%
0.9%
H
.
.
.
.
4.7%
4.4%
5.7%
5.4%
6.1%
5.3%
5.5%
5.3%
5.9%
B
1.2%
4.9%
11.5%
9.3%
2.5%
2.9%
3.0%
3.4%
3.6%
3.1%
3.3%
3.1%
4.2%
L
.
.
.
.
0.4%
1.3%
1.1%
1.7%
1.9%
1.3%
1.6%
1.3%
2.7%
H
.
.
.
.
6.3%
4.1%
4.5%
4.4%
4.3%
3.7%
3.8%
4.4%
6.2%
B
-2.7%
3.8%
3.6%
11.9%
4.6%
3.6%
2.8%
3.0%
3.0%
2.5%
2.6%
3.2%
5.1%
L
.
.
.
.
2.9%
3.0%
1.3%
1.8%
1.7%
1.2%
1.4%
1.9%
4.1%
H
.
.
.
.
5.1%
4.1%
5.4%
4.7%
5.2%
4.4%
4.7%
4.8%
.
B
-6.1%
-4.7%
6.9%
12.7%
3.1%
2.6%
2.8%
2.9%
3.2%
2.6%
2.8%
2.9%
.
L
.
.
.
.
1.2%
1.1%
0.8%
1.3%
1.6%
1.0%
1.2%
1.1%
.
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
89
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Growth in Total En Route Service Units
Annual growth
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
UK
Ukraine
ESRA02
BLUE MED FAB
Baltic FAB
AAGR
2022/
2015
RP2
2019/
2014
AAGR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020 2021 2022
H
.
.
.
.
5.9%
3.9%
5.1%
5.0%
5.8%
5.2%
5.4%
5.2%
4.5%
B
2.4%
6.9%
6.0%
2.6%
4.0%
2.6%
2.3%
3.0%
3.4%
2.9%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
L
.
.
.
.
2.1%
1.2%
0.2%
1.3%
1.6%
1.1%
1.3%
1.3%
1.5%
H
.
.
.
.
5.4%
3.7%
5.4%
4.4%
4.8%
4.0%
4.2%
4.6%
4.1%
B
0.1%
-3.3%
11.7%
1.5%
3.9%
2.4%
2.9%
2.7%
3.0%
2.3%
2.5%
2.8%
2.7%
L
.
.
.
.
2.4%
1.1%
0.8%
1.1%
1.4%
0.7%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
H
.
.
.
.
7.3%
3.9%
5.5%
4.2%
4.4%
3.7%
3.8%
4.7%
4.7%
B
-7.2%
0.0%
3.8%
2.6%
6.4%
2.9%
2.7%
2.5%
2.7%
1.9%
2.1%
3.0%
3.4%
L
.
.
.
.
5.5%
2.0%
0.4%
0.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.6%
1.5%
2.3%
H
.
.
.
.
3.2%
3.0%
4.3%
3.5%
4.9%
3.5%
3.5%
3.7%
3.2%
B
-1.8%
2.6%
2.4%
2.1%
1.9%
1.7%
2.3%
2.2%
2.3%
1.7%
1.9%
2.0%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
1.1%
0.9%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.9%
H
.
.
.
.
5.7%
2.8%
4.1%
3.6%
3.7%
2.7%
2.8%
3.6%
3.6%
B
-2.3%
-1.0%
3.0%
1.9%
4.4%
1.8%
1.9%
2.1%
2.3%
1.6%
1.8%
2.3%
2.4%
L
.
.
.
.
3.0%
0.8%
0.2%
0.6%
0.8%
0.2%
0.5%
0.9%
1.3%
H
.
.
.
.
3.4%
6.9%
7.8%
7.7%
7.9%
7.2%
7.4%
6.9%
.
B
2.0%
8.4%
20.4%
10.7%
2.0%
5.6%
5.3%
5.5%
5.4%
4.9%
5.0%
4.8%
.
L
.
.
.
.
0.6%
4.2%
3.4%
3.6%
3.5%
3.0%
3.2%
3.1%
.
H
.
.
.
.
4.4%
2.9%
3.9%
3.0%
3.3%
2.4%
2.4%
3.2%
3.2%
B
-2.6%
1.5%
2.3%
1.7%
3.2%
2.1%
2.3%
2.1%
2.3%
1.6%
1.4%
2.1%
2.3%
L
.
.
.
.
1.9%
1.3%
0.8%
1.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.6%
1.0%
1.4%
H
.
.
.
.
-3.4%
8.7%
7.6%
6.6%
6.7%
6.1%
6.2%
5.4%
.
B
2.8%
7.5%
-43.8%
-53.6%
-9.5%
6.0%
4.1%
4.0%
4.0%
3.5%
3.7%
2.1%
.
L
.
.
.
.
-15.7%
3.0%
1.4%
2.0%
1.9%
1.4%
1.7%
-0.8%
.
H
.
.
.
.
4.5%
3.9%
5.2%
4.5%
4.9%
4.1%
4.2%
4.5%
.
B
-1.4%
2.2%
6.0%
4.2%
3.2%
2.8%
2.9%
2.9%
3.1%
2.5%
2.6%
2.8%
.
L
.
.
.
.
1.8%
1.7%
1.0%
1.5%
1.5%
0.9%
1.1%
1.4%
.
H
.
.
.
.
4.5%
3.5%
6.1%
5.5%
5.8%
5.1%
5.4%
5.1%
4.3%
B
-2.2%
-0.3%
5.0%
2.2%
2.7%
2.2%
3.3%
3.3%
3.6%
3.0%
3.3%
3.1%
2.7%
L
.
.
.
.
0.9%
0.9%
1.0%
1.6%
1.7%
1.2%
1.4%
1.2%
1.3%
H
.
.
.
.
3.9%
3.8%
6.4%
5.3%
5.6%
4.7%
4.8%
4.9%
3.6%
B
4.6%
3.5%
-0.4%
-1.0%
2.8%
2.6%
3.3%
3.0%
3.1%
2.5%
2.8%
2.9%
2.1%
L
.
.
.
.
1.7%
1.5%
0.6%
1.7%
1.2%
0.6%
0.9%
1.1%
0.9%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
90
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Growth in Total En Route Service Units
Annual growth
Danube FAB
FAB CE
FABEC
NEFAB
South West FAB
UK-Ireland FAB
DK-SE FAB
CRCO88
CRCO11
CRCO14
RP1Region 16
AAGR
2022/
2015
RP2
2019/
2014
AAGR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020 2021 2022
H
.
.
.
.
5.1%
4.4%
5.8%
5.3%
6.0%
5.2%
5.4%
5.3%
6.6%
B
0.8%
3.8%
19.2%
12.5%
3.2%
3.0%
3.2%
3.4%
3.6%
3.1%
3.3%
3.2%
5.0%
L
.
.
.
.
1.3%
1.6%
1.3%
1.7%
1.9%
1.3%
1.5%
1.5%
3.6%
H
.
.
.
.
4.6%
3.9%
5.5%
4.7%
5.2%
4.4%
4.6%
4.7%
4.9%
B
-0.6%
1.6%
7.6%
5.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.8%
2.8%
3.1%
2.5%
2.7%
2.8%
3.4%
L
.
.
.
.
1.1%
1.5%
0.7%
1.5%
1.5%
0.8%
1.1%
1.2%
2.1%
H
.
.
.
.
4.1%
3.5%
4.4%
3.4%
3.8%
2.9%
3.0%
3.6%
3.4%
B
-1.2%
1.6%
3.0%
1.9%
3.1%
2.5%
2.3%
2.2%
2.4%
1.7%
1.9%
2.3%
2.4%
L
.
.
.
.
2.1%
1.5%
0.5%
1.0%
1.0%
0.3%
0.6%
1.0%
1.4%
H
.
.
.
.
3.3%
3.3%
3.8%
3.6%
5.2%
3.7%
3.7%
3.8%
3.3%
B
2.9%
5.6%
6.5%
2.6%
1.5%
1.8%
1.9%
2.1%
2.4%
1.8%
2.0%
1.9%
2.0%
L
.
.
.
.
-0.2%
0.5%
0.1%
0.6%
0.8%
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.7%
H
.
.
.
.
7.3%
4.2%
5.4%
4.2%
4.3%
3.7%
3.8%
4.7%
4.6%
B
-5.6%
0.1%
3.4%
2.0%
6.2%
3.0%
2.6%
2.4%
2.6%
1.9%
2.0%
3.0%
3.2%
L
.
.
.
.
5.1%
1.9%
0.3%
0.8%
0.9%
0.2%
0.5%
1.4%
2.0%
H
.
.
.
.
4.2%
2.7%
4.1%
3.1%
3.1%
2.3%
2.3%
3.1%
3.4%
B
-1.6%
1.1%
2.5%
3.1%
3.0%
2.0%
2.4%
2.2%
2.4%
1.7%
1.3%
2.1%
2.5%
L
.
.
.
.
1.8%
1.2%
0.9%
1.1%
1.2%
0.5%
0.7%
1.1%
1.6%
H
.
.
.
.
3.2%
2.8%
4.1%
3.4%
4.7%
3.3%
3.4%
3.6%
3.2%
B
-2.1%
3.9%
1.8%
2.5%
2.0%
1.7%
2.2%
2.1%
2.3%
1.7%
1.8%
2.0%
2.1%
L
.
.
.
.
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
1.0%
0.9%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
1.0%
H
.
.
.
.
4.8%
3.5%
4.6%
3.6%
3.9%
3.0%
3.1%
3.8%
3.9%
B
-2.2%
1.3%
3.2%
2.8%
3.7%
2.6%
2.4%
2.3%
2.5%
1.8%
1.9%
2.5%
2.8%
L
.
.
.
.
2.6%
1.6%
0.6%
1.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.7%
1.1%
1.7%
H
.
.
.
.
4.5%
3.9%
5.2%
4.5%
4.9%
4.1%
4.3%
4.5%
4.5%
B
-1.3%
2.1%
5.8%
4.2%
3.1%
2.8%
2.9%
2.9%
3.1%
2.5%
2.6%
2.8%
3.2%
L
.
.
.
.
1.8%
1.7%
1.0%
1.5%
1.5%
0.9%
1.1%
1.3%
2.0%
H
.
.
.
.
4.5%
3.9%
5.3%
4.5%
4.9%
4.1%
4.3%
4.5%
4.5%
B
-1.3%
2.1%
5.8%
4.2%
3.1%
2.8%
2.9%
2.9%
3.1%
2.5%
2.6%
2.9%
3.2%
L
.
.
.
.
1.7%
1.7%
1.0%
1.5%
1.5%
0.9%
1.1%
1.3%
2.0%
H
.
.
.
.
4.6%
3.6%
4.9%
4.1%
4.5%
3.7%
3.8%
4.2%
4.0%
B
-1.5%
1.6%
4.4%
3.1%
3.3%
2.5%
2.6%
2.5%
2.8%
2.1%
2.2%
2.6%
2.8%
L
.
.
.
.
2.0%
1.4%
0.6%
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.8%
1.1%
1.6%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
91
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Growth in Total En Route Service Units
Annual growth
RP2Region 16
Total
AAGR
2022/
2015
RP2
2019/
2014
AAGR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020 2021 2022
H
.
.
.
.
4.6%
3.6%
4.9%
4.1%
4.5%
3.7%
3.8%
4.2%
4.0%
B
-1.4%
1.6%
4.4%
3.0%
3.2%
2.5%
2.6%
2.6%
2.8%
2.1%
2.2%
2.6%
2.8%
L
.
.
.
.
1.9%
1.4%
0.6%
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.8%
1.1%
1.6%
H
.
.
.
.
4.4%
4.0%
5.3%
4.5%
5.0%
4.1%
4.3%
4.5%
4.2%
B
-1.2%
2.3%
3.9%
3.0%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
3.1%
2.5%
2.6%
2.8%
2.9%
L
.
.
.
.
1.6%
1.7%
1.0%
1.5%
1.5%
0.9%
1.1%
1.3%
1.7%
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
92
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
Annex 8
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Terminal Navigation service
units forecast per state
This appendix presents the forecast of the terminal navigation service units
based on the terminal charging zones definition for RP2 and the use of a 0.7
exponent in the terminal service unit definition (to be used as of 2015). The
definition of the charging zones is in line with their latest definitions available as
agreed in their performance plans for RP2 (Summer 2015).
The historical values up to 2015 have been reconstructed based on CRCO
data with the TCZ definitions and the exponent used to compute the TNSU
as applicable by states according to their RP1 performance plans up to 2014
and to the definition of RP2 from 2015 with a 0.7 exponent. For this forecast,
the TCZ definitions available in January 2016 were used (see Figure 52).
Figure 62. Forecast of the total number of Terminal service units (thousands) per Terminal
Charging Zone.
Terminal Navigation Service Units (Thousands)
Terminal Navigation Service Units (thousands)
Austria
Belgium
LO_TCZ
EB_TCZ_EBAW
EB_TCZ_EBBR
EB_TCZ_EBLG
EB_TCZ_EBOS
Bulgaria
Croatia
LB_TCZ
LD_TCZ
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
AAGR
2022/
2015
2022
High
.
.
.
.
183.2
189.9
200.8
209.5
220.4
230.2
240.3
4.2%
Base
179.1
175.5
178.4
180.7
181.0
185.2
190.7
196.5
202.4
207.1
212.2
2.3%
Low
.
.
.
.
178.5
180.3
181.5
184.4
187.3
189.1
191.1
0.8%
High
.
.
.
.
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
6.0%
Base
1.9
1.9
1.7
2.6
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
4.8%
Low
.
.
.
.
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.8%
High
.
.
.
.
164.6
171.5
179.2
181.3
183.4
185.4
187.5
2.8%
Base
150.8
142.3
146.6
154.6
161.9
166.5
170.9
176.0
182.4
185.4
187.5
2.8%
.
.
.
.
159.9
162.4
163.7
165.3
167.8
169.4
171.2
1.5%
Low
EB_TCZ_EBCI
2012
High
.
.
.
.
31.4
33.2
35.4
37.6
40.1
42.4
45.1
6.4%
Base
27.9
30.2
28.1
29.1
31.0
32.2
33.5
34.8
36.2
37.5
38.9
4.2%
Low
.
.
.
.
30.6
31.3
31.8
32.4
33.2
33.6
34.3
2.3%
High
.
.
.
.
29.3
31.1
33.5
35.8
38.1
40.3
43.0
6.6%
Base
23.5
22.9
24.7
27.6
29.0
30.3
31.8
33.6
35.5
37.1
38.8
5.0%
Low
.
.
.
.
28.6
29.6
30.5
31.5
32.7
33.9
35.4
3.6%
High
.
.
.
.
2.6
2.7
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.5
4.6
10.6%
Base
3.4
3.2
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.7
3.1
3.2
3.2
5.1%
Low
.
.
.
.
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.5%
High
.
.
.
.
26.6
28.2
31.1
33.5
36.2
38.6
41.2
8.0%
Base
41.5
41.7
44.2
24.1
26.1
27.1
28.6
30.3
31.9
33.2
34.6
5.3%
Low
.
.
.
.
25.5
26.2
26.7
27.5
28.4
29.0
30.2
3.3%
High
.
.
.
.
17.8
18.5
19.6
20.6
21.7
23.2
24.4
5.0%
Base
16.0
15.8
16.3
17.4
17.5
17.9
18.5
19.2
19.8
20.1
20.7
2.5%
.
.
.
.
17.1
17.3
17.3
17.6
17.9
18.1
18.4
0.8%
Low
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
93
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Terminal Navigation Service Units (Thousands)
Terminal Navigation Service Units (thousands)
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
LC_TCZ
LK_TCZ
EK_TCZ
EE_TCZ
EF_TCZ
LF_TCZ
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
ED_TCZ
LG_TCZ
LH_TCZ
EI_TCZ
LI_TCZ_1
LI_TCZ_2
Latvia
EV_TCZ
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
High
.
.
.
.
43.3
46.1
50.1
54.0
59.2
64.3
70.8
8.3%
Base
42.5
39.0
40.0
40.4
42.3
43.9
46.0
48.3
50.7
52.6
55.6
4.7%
Low
.
.
.
.
41.3
42.0
42.4
43.3
44.2
44.9
45.9
1.8%
High
.
.
.
.
82.3
88.9
96.1
102.8
111.9
119.3
129.1
8.0%
Base
75.3
73.7
72.9
75.5
80.8
84.6
89.5
93.1
97.8
101.6
106.1
5.0%
Low
.
.
.
.
79.4
81.7
82.8
84.7
87.6
88.7
90.7
2.7%
High
.
.
.
.
169.3
175.5
184.9
193.2
202.6
210.6
218.6
4.7%
Base
143.7
148.1
154.5
158.2
167.5
170.1
176.4
180.2
185.5
189.7
194.1
3.0%
Low
.
.
.
.
165.4
166.2
167.4
169.9
171.4
172.1
173.2
1.3%
High
.
.
.
.
16.3
17.4
19.0
20.4
23.9
26.3
28.7
8.7%
Base
18.9
14.6
15.1
15.9
16.0
16.7
17.4
18.3
19.2
20.7
23.3
5.6%
Low
.
.
.
.
15.6
15.8
16.8
17.3
17.6
17.8
18.1
1.9%
High
.
.
.
.
106.2
110.0
115.4
122.4
130.5
138.1
145.3
5.4%
Base
97.6
97.9
99.4
100.5
104.8
107.3
110.1
112.9
116.7
119.8
125.0
3.2%
Low
.
.
.
.
103.5
104.6
104.7
106.4
108.2
109.3
111.0
1.4%
High
.
.
.
.
1072.2
1104.2
1149.0
1187.1
1238.1
1265.7
1293.0
3.0%
Base
1092.7
1090.7
1031.1
1048.9
1058.8
1071.5
1087.1
1120.5
1152.9
1182.4
1213.6
2.1%
.
.
.
.
1044.6
1044.4
1041.6
1055.0
1071.6
1080.7
1092.4
0.6%
Low
Germany
2012
AAGR
2022/
2015
High
.
.
.
.
1403.9
1446.7
1516.2
1574.9
1638.9
1700.6
1763.0
4.0%
Base
1295.5
1282.3
1311.6
1338.8
1388.9
1417.2
1446.9
1481.1
1525.3
1562.8
1609.7
2.7%
Low
.
.
.
.
1373.6
1384.8
1392.2
1435.4
1460.6
1478.7
1501.3
1.7%
High
.
.
.
.
109.5
114.0
121.1
129.5
141.4
151.8
163.9
7.3%
Base
83.0
74.5
86.0
100.1
107.3
109.8
113.2
117.9
124.4
130.5
138.0
4.7%
Low
.
.
.
.
105.1
106.0
106.6
108.8
112.5
115.6
119.3
2.5%
High
.
.
.
.
59.1
62.8
68.6
75.8
82.8
90.0
98.1
8.6%
Base
49.6
49.2
50.7
55.2
58.0
60.6
63.1
66.3
70.1
73.3
77.1
4.9%
Low
.
.
.
.
56.8
58.3
58.8
60.0
61.4
62.4
63.7
2.0%
High
.
.
.
.
161.2
169.7
181.7
192.1
196.4
200.3
202.9
4.5%
Base
129.5
136.7
137.5
149.6
159.1
165.7
172.4
179.6
187.1
193.0
196.0
3.9%
Low
.
.
.
.
157.1
161.5
164.0
168.1
172.2
175.8
180.0
2.7%
High
.
.
.
.
227.7
236.6
251.5
266.2
274.4
287.5
302.3
4.5%
Base
217.7
210.0
218.5
221.9
224.6
229.4
236.4
242.7
250.0
256.3
264.3
2.5%
Low
.
.
.
.
221.8
223.4
224.0
225.6
227.6
228.4
229.3
0.5%
High
.
.
.
.
296.7
310.1
329.6
347.4
367.2
385.6
405.7
5.1%
Base
285.7
275.3
275.1
286.0
292.6
300.1
309.9
319.8
329.6
339.1
348.9
2.9%
Low
.
.
.
.
289.0
292.0
293.8
297.0
300.4
302.0
305.4
0.9%
High
.
.
.
.
37.1
39.3
42.7
46.5
49.9
53.1
57.0
8.4%
Base
31.5
32.4
31.4
32.4
36.2
37.3
38.4
39.8
41.1
42.3
43.8
4.4%
.
.
.
.
35.6
35.5
35.3
35.3
35.5
35.2
34.6
0.9%
Low
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
94
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Terminal Navigation Service Units (Thousands)
Terminal Navigation Service Units (thousands)
Lisbon FIR
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
LP_TCZ
EY_TCZ
EL_TCZ
LM_TCZ
Netherlands
Norway
EH_TCZ
EN_TCZ
Romania
EP_TCZ
LR_TCZ
Slovenia
Spain
LZ_TCZ
LJ_TCZ
LE_TCZ
Sweden
Switzerland
ES_TCZ_A
LS_TCZ
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
.
.
.
.
227.1
237.8
251.9
263.6
276.0
289.0
301.6
5.6%
Base
175.7
180.3
191.8
205.6
221.9
230.1
236.7
243.2
250.3
255.6
261.5
3.5%
Low
.
.
.
.
218.3
221.6
222.1
223.9
225.9
226.7
228.2
1.5%
High
.
.
.
.
26.2
28.1
30.7
33.4
35.8
39.1
42.7
7.9%
Base
19.2
21.0
23.6
25.1
25.8
26.9
28.4
29.9
31.3
32.6
33.9
4.4%
Low
.
.
.
.
25.2
25.8
26.3
27.2
27.8
28.2
28.7
2.0%
High
.
.
.
.
43.8
45.9
49.3
52.5
55.3
58.0
62.2
6.1%
Base
34.9
37.3
39.0
41.1
43.3
44.8
46.6
48.5
50.7
52.3
54.6
4.1%
Low
.
.
.
.
42.7
43.6
44.7
45.7
46.9
48.1
49.1
2.6%
High
.
.
.
.
28.1
30.0
32.7
35.6
38.7
42.6
45.7
8.8%
Base
20.7
22.7
23.9
25.4
27.5
29.0
30.2
31.7
33.3
34.8
36.4
5.3%
Low
.
.
.
.
26.9
27.8
28.3
29.0
29.4
29.7
30.2
2.5%
High
.
.
.
.
366.5
380.1
396.3
409.0
422.7
428.7
444.4
2.7%
Base
339.2
345.0
356.6
369.2
366.4
380.1
395.0
407.4
420.8
433.4
441.0
2.6%
Low
.
.
.
.
366.3
380.0
393.9
406.3
417.9
422.1
427.8
2.1%
High
.
.
.
.
248.6
255.0
259.0
270.0
292.4
301.8
309.0
3.6%
Base
242.4
255.4
247.9
241.7
245.1
252.6
256.7
261.4
267.6
270.7
274.6
1.8%
.
.
.
.
242.9
248.2
247.7
248.4
250.1
250.2
250.7
0.5%
High
.
.
.
.
179.8
195.9
218.4
240.1
263.8
288.5
311.9
9.3%
Base
148.9
149.9
156.4
167.1
176.4
187.6
199.0
210.9
223.8
235.5
249.5
5.9%
Low
.
.
.
.
173.5
180.9
184.8
190.3
195.4
199.5
204.0
2.9%
High
.
.
.
.
60.5
64.7
70.3
75.4
81.6
87.1
94.5
8.1%
Base
45.1
47.3
50.3
54.6
59.5
62.4
65.2
68.8
72.6
76.0
79.9
5.6%
.
.
.
.
58.7
60.5
60.6
62.5
64.4
66.0
67.9
3.2%
Low
Slovakia
2013
High
Low
Poland
2012
AAGR
2022/
2015
High
.
.
.
.
10.8
11.7
13.0
15.1
16.5
18.0
19.6
11.1%
Base
8.7
8.6
8.3
9.4
10.5
11.1
11.9
12.6
13.4
15.0
15.8
7.8%
Low
.
.
.
.
10.1
10.7
11.0
11.3
11.7
12.1
12.5
4.2%
High
.
.
.
.
11.7
13.0
14.3
15.5
16.6
17.9
18.9
6.7%
Base
11.1
11.3
11.1
12.0
11.5
12.3
13.2
13.7
14.7
15.4
16.2
4.4%
Low
.
.
.
.
11.2
11.5
11.7
12.4
13.1
13.3
13.5
1.7%
High
.
.
.
.
732.3
771.1
812.7
859.3
877.8
908.8
956.5
5.0%
Base
725.6
700.4
651.2
680.5
716.2
742.5
768.5
800.9
819.7
826.4
848.2
3.2%
Low
.
.
.
.
704.4
720.9
727.6
739.4
750.8
765.4
774.0
1.9%
High
.
.
.
.
143.3
147.7
153.7
160.5
168.7
174.8
181.8
4.1%
Base
121.7
128.6
135.6
137.1
141.7
144.8
147.9
150.7
154.5
158.1
161.0
2.3%
Low
.
.
.
.
140.1
141.5
141.9
143.7
144.9
145.6
146.6
1.0%
High
.
.
.
.
275.2
285.7
300.8
316.7
333.0
346.8
359.4
4.4%
Base
254.4
252.1
262.2
266.6
271.4
278.6
288.2
296.1
304.8
313.0
321.0
2.7%
.
.
.
.
267.5
271.5
274.3
279.3
283.0
284.8
288.4
1.1%
Low
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
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Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Terminal Navigation Service Units (Thousands)
Terminal Navigation Service Units (thousands)
UK
EG_TCZ_B
EG_TCZ_C
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
AAGR
2022/
2015
High
.
.
.
.
1222.0
1263.6
1313.1
1361.2
1437.5
1502.5
1556.9
4.0%
Base
1079.6
1106.0
1142.7
1187.0
1208.4
1245.4
1278.3
1310.4
1351.8
1381.1
1415.6
2.5%
Low
.
.
.
.
1190.6
1218.2
1235.5
1257.4
1278.2
1292.1
1317.4
1.5%
High
.
.
.
.
930.4
960.5
996.5
1030.8
1085.9
1133.4
1171.0
3.7%
Base
826.5
843.8
877.1
907.6
920.4
949.0
973.2
998.0
1029.3
1049.8
1072.6
2.4%
.
.
.
.
906.5
929.2
943.7
961.8
980.1
993.1
1014.4
1.6%
Low
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
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Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Annex 9
Terminal Navigation service
units growth forecast per state
This appendix presents the same data as the previous, but presented as
growth rather than counts of terminal navigation service units. The low growth
observed for Bulgaria in 2015 can be attributed to the suppression of 4 airports
in 2015 compared to what was considered in 2014. The rest of the TCZ
changes does not have a significant impact.
Figure 63. Forecast of the total number of Terminal service units (growth) per Terminal
Charging Zone.
Growth in Terminal Navigation Service Units
Annual Growth
Austria
LO_TCZ
2012
EB_TCZ_EBAW
EB_TCZ_EBBR
EB_TCZ_EBCI
EB_TCZ_EBLG
EB_TCZ_EBOS
Bulgaria
18
LB_TCZ
Croatia
LD_TCZ
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
High
.
.
.
.
1.4%
3.7%
5.7%
4.3%
5.2%
4.5%
4.4%
Base
-2.7%
-2.0%
1.6%
1.3%
0.1%
2.3%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
2.3%
2.5%
.
.
.
.
-1.2%
1.0%
0.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.0%
1.1%
Low
Belgium
2013
High
.
.
.
.
24.5%
3.9%
2.8%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
2.7%
Base
-9.6%
-1.5%
-10.6%
56.1%
21.7%
3.3%
2.6%
1.8%
2.2%
1.4%
1.6%
Low
.
.
.
.
20.0%
1.5%
2.1%
0.7%
1.2%
1.8%
1.0%
High
.
.
.
.
6.4%
4.2%
4.5%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
Base
-4.7%
-5.6%
3.0%
5.5%
4.7%
2.8%
2.7%
2.9%
3.7%
1.6%
1.1%
Low
.
.
.
.
3.4%
1.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.5%
0.9%
1.1%
High
.
.
.
.
7.9%
5.6%
6.7%
6.2%
6.5%
5.9%
6.3%
Base
11.6%
8.3%
-7.0%
3.8%
6.4%
3.9%
4.0%
3.8%
4.1%
3.5%
3.8%
Low
.
.
.
.
5.0%
2.4%
1.5%
2.0%
2.4%
1.3%
1.9%
High
.
.
.
.
6.3%
6.1%
7.7%
6.8%
6.4%
6.0%
6.5%
Base
-13.9%
-2.6%
8.1%
11.4%
5.0%
4.7%
4.8%
5.7%
5.6%
4.5%
4.8%
Low
.
.
.
.
3.9%
3.3%
3.0%
3.5%
3.7%
3.5%
4.4%
High
.
.
.
.
12.8%
3.5%
13.7%
5.4%
4.4%
3.7%
33.4%
Base
-2.6%
-7.5%
-26.1%
-3.3%
10.1%
2.4%
2.5%
4.2%
12.1%
2.4%
2.7%
Low
.
.
.
.
6.8%
3.0%
-0.6%
1.6%
2.1%
2.7%
1.8%
High
.
.
.
.
10.6%
5.8%
10.4%
7.9%
8.0%
6.4%
6.9%
Base
0.9%
0.5%
6.1%
-45.6%
8.3%
4.1%
5.3%
6.1%
5.2%
4.1%
4.2%
Low
.
.
.
.
6.1%
2.5%
2.0%
3.1%
3.2%
2.2%
4.1%
High
.
.
.
.
2.3%
4.1%
5.9%
5.4%
5.3%
6.6%
5.3%
Base
-4.5%
-1.0%
3.5%
6.2%
0.5%
2.7%
3.2%
4.0%
3.2%
1.5%
2.7%
.
.
.
.
-1.3%
0.8%
0.1%
2.0%
1.7%
1.0%
1.5%
Low
18
The definition of the Terminal Charging Zone for Bulgaria takes into account the definition available
for the February 2015 forecast: 4 airports have been taken out from 2016, which explains the low
growth for 2016
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
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Released Issue
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Network Manager
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FEBRUARY 2016
Growth in Terminal Navigation Service Units
Annual Growth
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
LC_TCZ
LK_TCZ
EK_TCZ
EE_TCZ
EF_TCZ
LF_TCZ
2012
Greece
ED_TCZ
LG_TCZ
Ireland
Italy
LH_TCZ
EI_TCZ
LI_TCZ_1
LI_TCZ_2
Latvia
EV_TCZ
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
.
.
.
7.1%
6.5%
8.6%
7.8%
9.7%
8.5%
10.2%
Base
-3.1%
-8.3%
2.5%
1.0%
4.7%
3.7%
4.8%
5.0%
5.0%
3.9%
5.6%
Low
.
.
.
.
2.3%
1.6%
1.1%
2.0%
2.2%
1.4%
2.4%
High
.
.
.
.
9.0%
8.1%
8.1%
7.0%
8.8%
6.6%
8.2%
Base
-10.8%
-2.1%
-1.0%
3.6%
7.0%
4.8%
5.8%
4.0%
5.0%
3.9%
4.4%
Low
.
.
.
.
5.1%
2.9%
1.4%
2.3%
3.3%
1.4%
2.2%
High
.
.
.
.
7.0%
3.7%
5.3%
4.5%
4.9%
3.9%
3.8%
Base
3.0%
2.3%
2.3%
-1.1%
3.1%
4.3%
2.4%
5.9%
1.6%
3.7%
2.1%
Low
.
.
.
.
4.5%
0.5%
0.7%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
0.6%
High
.
.
.
.
2.4%
6.9%
8.9%
7.7%
17.0%
9.9%
9.0%
Base
18.0%
-22.8%
3.4%
5.6%
0.1%
4.5%
4.5%
4.9%
4.7%
8.2%
12.3%
Low
.
.
.
.
-2.1%
1.1%
6.7%
2.8%
1.8%
1.5%
1.6%
High
.
.
.
.
5.6%
3.6%
4.9%
6.1%
6.6%
5.8%
5.2%
Base
-8.9%
0.4%
1.5%
1.1%
4.3%
2.4%
2.6%
2.5%
3.4%
2.7%
4.3%
Low
.
.
.
.
3.0%
1.1%
0.1%
1.6%
1.7%
1.0%
1.5%
High
.
.
.
.
2.2%
3.0%
4.1%
3.3%
4.3%
2.2%
2.2%
Base
-4.6%
-0.2%
-5.5%
1.7%
0.9%
1.2%
1.5%
3.1%
2.9%
2.6%
2.6%
.
.
.
.
-0.4%
-0.0%
-0.3%
1.3%
1.6%
0.8%
1.1%
High
.
.
.
.
4.9%
3.0%
4.8%
3.9%
4.1%
3.8%
3.7%
Base
-1.2%
-1.0%
2.3%
2.1%
3.7%
2.0%
2.1%
2.4%
3.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Low
.
.
.
.
2.6%
0.8%
0.5%
3.1%
1.8%
1.2%
1.5%
High
.
.
.
.
9.4%
4.0%
6.2%
6.9%
9.2%
7.4%
8.0%
Base
-14.0%
-10.2%
15.5%
16.4%
7.2%
2.3%
3.1%
4.1%
5.5%
5.0%
5.7%
.
.
.
.
5.0%
0.9%
0.6%
2.0%
3.4%
2.7%
3.2%
High
.
.
.
.
7.0%
6.3%
9.2%
10.4%
9.3%
8.8%
9.0%
Base
-16.0%
-0.9%
3.1%
9.0%
4.9%
4.6%
4.1%
5.1%
5.8%
4.5%
5.3%
Low
.
.
.
.
2.9%
2.6%
0.8%
2.1%
2.4%
1.7%
2.0%
High
.
.
.
.
7.7%
5.3%
7.0%
5.7%
2.3%
2.0%
1.3%
Base
-4.7%
5.5%
0.6%
8.8%
6.4%
4.1%
4.1%
4.2%
4.2%
3.2%
1.5%
Low
.
.
.
.
5.0%
2.8%
1.6%
2.4%
2.5%
2.1%
2.4%
High
.
.
.
.
2.6%
3.9%
6.3%
5.9%
3.1%
4.8%
5.1%
Base
-3.6%
-3.5%
4.0%
1.6%
1.2%
2.1%
3.0%
2.7%
3.0%
2.5%
3.1%
Low
.
.
.
.
-0.1%
0.8%
0.3%
0.7%
0.9%
0.3%
0.4%
High
.
.
.
.
3.7%
4.5%
6.3%
5.4%
5.7%
5.0%
5.2%
Base
-2.2%
-3.7%
-0.1%
4.0%
2.3%
2.6%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
2.9%
2.9%
Low
.
.
.
.
1.0%
1.0%
0.6%
1.1%
1.2%
0.5%
1.1%
High
.
.
.
.
14.5%
6.0%
8.7%
8.7%
7.4%
6.4%
7.2%
Base
-2.3%
2.9%
-3.2%
3.3%
11.9%
2.9%
2.9%
3.7%
3.1%
3.0%
3.6%
.
.
.
.
9.8%
-0.3%
-0.5%
0.2%
0.4%
-0.8%
-1.8%
Low
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
2015
.
Low
Hungary
2014
High
Low
Germany
2013
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
98
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Growth in Terminal Navigation Service Units
Annual Growth
Lisbon FIR
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Norway
LP_TCZ
EY_TCZ
EL_TCZ
LM_TCZ
EH_TCZ
EN_TCZ
2012
Romania
EP_TCZ
LR_TCZ
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
LZ_TCZ
LJ_TCZ
LE_TCZ
ES_TCZ_A
LS_TCZ
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
.
.
.
10.5%
4.7%
5.9%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.4%
Base
-1.0%
2.6%
6.4%
7.2%
7.9%
3.7%
2.9%
2.7%
2.9%
2.1%
2.3%
Low
.
.
.
.
6.2%
1.5%
0.2%
0.8%
0.9%
0.3%
0.7%
High
.
.
.
.
4.4%
7.5%
9.3%
8.7%
7.3%
9.2%
9.2%
Base
8.0%
9.5%
12.2%
6.2%
2.8%
4.5%
5.6%
5.2%
4.6%
4.1%
4.2%
Low
.
.
.
.
0.4%
2.5%
2.2%
3.1%
2.2%
1.5%
1.8%
High
.
.
.
.
6.7%
4.7%
7.3%
6.6%
5.3%
4.9%
7.1%
Base
5.3%
3.4%
4.2%
3.9%
4.6%
3.1%
4.4%
-1.0%
6.8%
4.4%
5.5%
Low
.
.
.
.
3.9%
2.3%
2.3%
2.2%
2.8%
2.6%
2.1%
High
.
.
.
.
10.8%
6.5%
9.2%
8.7%
8.9%
9.8%
7.4%
Base
.
9.7%
5.6%
6.1%
8.2%
5.5%
4.1%
5.1%
5.0%
4.4%
4.6%
Low
.
.
.
.
5.8%
3.5%
1.9%
2.2%
1.5%
1.2%
1.7%
High
.
.
.
.
-0.7%
3.7%
4.3%
3.2%
3.4%
1.4%
3.7%
Base
0.0%
1.7%
3.4%
3.5%
-0.7%
3.7%
3.9%
3.1%
3.3%
3.0%
1.8%
Low
.
.
.
.
-0.8%
3.7%
3.7%
3.2%
2.9%
1.0%
1.4%
High
.
.
.
.
2.8%
2.6%
1.6%
4.2%
8.3%
3.2%
2.4%
Base
5.6%
5.4%
-2.9%
-2.5%
1.4%
3.1%
1.6%
1.8%
2.4%
1.1%
1.4%
.
.
.
.
0.5%
2.2%
-0.2%
0.3%
0.7%
0.0%
0.2%
High
.
.
.
.
7.6%
9.0%
11.5%
9.9%
9.9%
9.4%
8.1%
Base
11.4%
0.7%
4.4%
6.8%
5.5%
6.4%
6.1%
6.0%
6.1%
5.2%
5.9%
Low
.
.
.
.
3.8%
4.3%
2.2%
3.0%
2.7%
2.1%
2.3%
High
.
.
.
.
10.8%
7.0%
8.6%
7.3%
8.1%
6.9%
8.4%
Base
21.5%
4.8%
6.4%
8.6%
9.1%
4.8%
4.5%
5.5%
5.5%
4.7%
5.1%
.
.
.
.
7.5%
3.1%
0.2%
3.1%
3.1%
2.5%
2.9%
High
.
.
.
.
15.2%
8.6%
10.8%
16.8%
9.1%
8.9%
8.8%
Base
-11.7%
-1.7%
-3.4%
12.9%
12.2%
6.2%
6.4%
6.4%
6.0%
11.9%
5.7%
Low
.
.
.
.
8.1%
5.7%
2.6%
3.5%
3.3%
3.0%
3.2%
High
.
.
.
.
-2.5%
11.6%
9.5%
8.3%
7.5%
7.9%
5.4%
Base
-10.8%
1.4%
-1.7%
8.0%
-4.5%
7.1%
7.3%
4.4%
7.2%
4.3%
5.3%
Low
.
.
.
.
-6.2%
2.2%
1.9%
5.8%
5.4%
1.5%
2.1%
High
.
.
.
.
7.6%
5.3%
5.4%
5.7%
2.2%
3.5%
5.3%
Base
-6.6%
-3.5%
-7.0%
4.5%
5.2%
3.7%
3.5%
4.2%
2.4%
0.8%
2.6%
Low
.
.
.
.
3.5%
2.3%
0.9%
1.6%
1.5%
2.0%
1.1%
High
.
.
.
.
4.5%
3.1%
4.1%
4.4%
5.1%
3.6%
4.0%
Base
-0.2%
5.7%
5.5%
1.1%
3.4%
2.2%
2.2%
1.9%
2.5%
2.4%
1.8%
Low
.
.
.
.
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
1.3%
0.8%
0.5%
0.7%
High
.
.
.
.
3.2%
3.8%
5.3%
5.3%
5.1%
4.1%
3.7%
Base
1.2%
-0.9%
4.0%
1.7%
1.8%
2.7%
3.4%
2.8%
2.9%
2.7%
2.6%
.
.
.
.
0.3%
1.5%
1.0%
1.8%
1.3%
0.7%
1.3%
Low
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
2015
.
Low
Slovakia
2014
High
Low
Poland
2013
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
99
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Growth in Terminal Navigation Service Units
Annual Growth
UK
2012
EG_TCZ_B
UK
EG_TCZ_C
19
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
High
.
.
.
.
2.9%
3.4%
3.9%
3.7%
5.6%
4.5%
3.6%
Base
-0.1%
2.5%
3.3%
3.9%
1.8%
3.1%
2.6%
2.5%
3.2%
2.2%
2.5%
Low
.
.
.
.
0.3%
2.3%
1.4%
1.8%
1.7%
1.1%
2.0%
High
.
.
.
.
2.5%
3.2%
3.7%
3.4%
5.3%
4.4%
3.3%
Base
-0.4%
2.1%
3.9%
3.5%
1.4%
3.1%
2.5%
2.5%
3.1%
2.0%
2.2%
.
.
.
.
-0.1%
2.5%
1.6%
1.9%
1.9%
1.3%
2.1%
Low
19
The UK has defined the UK _TCZ_C as a separate terminal charging zone, which covers the London
Approach Service (LAS) for the five London airports (Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Luton and London
City). These five airports are also part of the nine airports forming the UK_TCZ_B.
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
100
Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022
Network Manager
EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST
FEBRUARY 2016
Annex 10 References
1
EUROCONTROL Update of the Seven-Year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast:
2015-2021, STATFOR Document 568, October 2015.
2
GDP Elasticities for the STATFOR Forecast, STATFOR Document 499, Draft v0.4, November 2013.
3
High-Speed Train Model Recalibration, STATFOR Document 551, Draft v0.1, November 2014.
4
EUROCONTROL Industry Monitor, the EUROCONTROL bulletin on air transport trends
Issue N°181. March 2016.
5
EUROCONTROL Update of the Seven-Year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast:
2014-2020, STATFOR Document 542, October 2014.
6
Task5: Mitigation of the Challenges, Challenges of Growth 2013, EUROCONTROL June 2013.
Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016
Edition: 15/12/17-52
Released Issue
101