Introduction to Pathways of Progress Report © Dynamic Measurement Group, Inc. September 5, 2013 Pathways of Progress™ Pathways of Progress is a research-based tool for: (1) establishing individual student progress monitoring goals; (2) evaluating individual student progress and rate of growth; and (3) reflecting the effectiveness of support at the classroom, school, or district level. Pathways of Progress provides an evaluation of growth over time, compared to other students with the same level of initial skills. Thus, it provides a normative reference for professionals to consider. It increases the precision with which progress is evaluated at the student and classroom levels. The pathways clarify what rate of progress is typical, above typical, or well above typical. Pathways of Progress also informs educators when progress is below typical or well below typical rates of progress. ® The DIBELS Next benchmark goals are used in conjunction with Pathways of Progress to provide a frame of reference that represents the lowest score above which a student is likely to be on track to reach future reading outcomes. The use of Pathways of Progress enhances the use of the benchmark goals and the DIBELS Next Composite Score (DCS). Pathways of Progress increases the precision with which decisions can be made about goal-setting and evaluating progress. Pathways of Progress and the DIBELS Next benchmark goals empower educators to set goals that are meaningful, ambitious, and attainable. More information on Pathways of Progress will be available soon. We are currently examining issues related to interpreting Pathways results for very high-performing students, as well as other specific patterns of performance, in relation to whether those results are statistically and educationally meaningful. For a preliminary framework that takes these issues into account when interpreting Pathways results, see the Interpreting Individual Student Pathways of Progress section below. To call our attention to any patterns you notice and that you believe we should examine further, please e-mail us at info@dibels.org. Pathways of Progress Logic Initial Pathways of Progress data is based on the performance of students in over 1,000 classrooms in the ® DIBELSnet (https://dibels.net/) data reporting service for 2011-2012. Five pathways of growth were established by analyzing student growth over the year compared to other students with the same level of th initial skills. The beginning-of-year DIBELS Composite Score serves as the starting point while the 20 , th th th 40 , 60 , and 80 percentiles serve as the boundaries between the five pathways. The pathways were calculated by looking at student outcomes at the end of the year on the DIBELS Composite Score as well th as individual DIBELS Next measures. A rate of growth across the year above the 80 percentile would be described as Well Above Typical progress compared to other students at that grade level who started the year with the same initial DIBELS Composite Score. Each Pathway and its corresponding progress percentile ranges are shown in Figure 1. DIBELS, DIBELS Next, and DIBELSnet are registered trademarks of Dynamic Measurement Group, Inc. http://dibels.org/ Pathways of Progress is a trademark of Dynamic Measurement Group, Inc. Pathway # 5 4 3 2 1 Progress Percentile Range th 80 percentile and above th th 60 to 79 percentile th th 40 to 59 percentile th th 20 to 39 percentile th Below 20 percentile Progress Descriptor Well Above Typical Above Typical Typical Below Typical Well Below Typical Figure 1. Pathways of Progress Descriptors Using Pathways of Progress for Evaluating Individual Student Progress When using Pathways of Progress Reports to evaluate individual student progress within classrooms, the Pathways are evaluated relative to typical student progress for students with the same initial skill. We can describe the progress the student has made across the school year in this context. Evaluation of progress can be done at the student level and the classroom level. The first Pathways of Progress feature available within DIBELSnet is called the Pathways of Progress Report, which looks at student performance at the beginning and end of the school year, and provides the Pathway for each student based on that student's DIBELS Composite Scores. A sample Pathways of Progress Report is included as Figure 2. The left-hand column of the report lists the student names (blurred in Figure 2). The columns to the right of the student names list the beginning-of-year score, end-of-year score, and gain (or loss) for each measure given at that grade level. Scores are color-coded relative to their benchmark status (green = At or Above Benchmark; yellow = Below Benchmark; red = Well Below Benchmark). The last of these score columns lists this information for the DIBELS Composite Score (note that gain/loss is not reported for the DIBELS Composite Score in grades K-2 since the formula varies across the year). In the far right-hand column on the report, the Pathway for each student, based upon their DIBELS Composite Score, is noted by the number of stars. A key explaining the star ratings is found at the bottom of the report. In reviewing the data on these reports, please note that a student can be Well Below Benchmark at beginning- and end-of-year but have made typical progress (compared to other students who began the year with the same DIBELS Composite Score), such as Student #3 in Figure 2. Similarly, a student can be At or Above Benchmark at beginning- and end-of-year but have made well below typical progress (compared to other students who began the year with the same DIBELS Composite Score), such as Student #6 in Figure 2. It is important to consider both the benchmark status and the Pathway when making instructional decisions. DIBELS, DIBELS Next, and DIBELSnet are registered trademarks of Dynamic Measurement Group, Inc. http://dibels.org/ Pathways of Progress is a trademark of Dynamic Measurement Group, Inc. Interpreting Individual Student Pathways of Progress When interpreting the Pathways of Progress Report, we advise that school personnel apply the following three-step framework: 1. Do you have confidence in the accuracy of the student scores on which the Pathway is based? If yes, proceed to steps 2 and 3 below. If no, then re-test with alternate materials to validate those scores. This recommendation is consistent with Step 2 of the Outcomes-Driven Model. The accuracy of scores may be called into question for a variety of reasons including: (a) suspected data entry error, (b) an error in the standard administration, or (c) an unusual pattern across students or teachers (i.e., unexpectedly low or high scores based on past scores). 2. Is the beginning-of-year DIBELS Composite Score (DCS) within the range of the data to provide an interpretable pathway? If yes, then proceed to step 3. If not, then do not interpret the student's Pathway. Pathways of Progress are interpretable across a very broad range of student skill. th However, we have found that once we move beyond the 99.5 percentile on beginning-of-year DIBELS Composite Score, the data become much more sparse and we have less confidence in th the Pathway interpretation. The table below indicates the 99.5 percentile for beginning-of-year DCS for each grade level. Beginning-of-Year DIBELS Composite Score Grade Interpretable Range for Pathways (2012-2013) Kindergarten 0 to 107 First 0 to 263 Second 0 to 368 Third 0 to 547 Fourth 0 to 595 Fifth 0 to 642 Sixth 0 to 666 Pathways of Progress are based on enough data for interpretation up to the 99.5th percentile (that is, for all but 5 in 1,000 students). 3. Is the Pathway of Progress educationally meaningful? If not, please consider whether it is appropriate and in what manner these students' Pathways data should be interpreted. One example of considering whether a Pathway is educationally meaningful is for students in grades 4 - 6 who are well above benchmark at the beginning of the year (across the board on all DIBELS Next skill areas measured), and who end the year solidly well above benchmark (also across all DIBELS Next skill areas measured). Some students with this pattern fall within Pathway 1 or 2, so we must consider what amount of growth on DIBELS Next measures is educationally meaningful. For these students, further increasing their reading proficiency may not be the best use of instructional time and resources, and the teacher should consider whether the instructional emphasis should shift from "learning to read" to "reading to learn," and other higher order text analysis skills. We will continue examining these issues from both a statistical and educational basis. By the end of the 2013-2014 school year, we plan to incorporate decision rules for steps 2 and 3 into the Pathways procedures, to make it easier to interpret the Pathways reports. Additional case examples will be developed in the near future to illustrate this general decision framework. DIBELS, DIBELS Next, and DIBELSnet are registered trademarks of Dynamic Measurement Group, Inc. http://dibels.org/ Pathways of Progress is a trademark of Dynamic Measurement Group, Inc. School: Grade: Year: Classroom Pathways of Progress DIBELS Next At or Above Benchmark / Likely to Need Core Support Below Benchmark / Likely to Need Strategic Support DORF Words Correct Name DORF Accuracy Beg of Year End of Year Gain DORF Retell Beg of Year End of Year Gain Well Below Benchmark / Likely to Need Intensive Support Daze Adjusted Score Beg of Year End of Year Gain DIBELS Composite Score Beg of Year End of Year Gain Beg of Year End of Year Gain 149 168 +19 99% 99% +0 55 94 +39 16 36 +20 435 606 +171 78 120 +42 96% 99% +3 19 34 +15 8 21 +13 236 378 +142 48 65 +17 87% 95% +8 25 37 +12 5 15 +10 134 273 +139 98 134 +36 97% 99% +2 48 64 +16 7 30 +23 318 488 +170 96 124 +28 100% 100% +0 61 60 -1 10 30 +20 378 478 +100 73 96 +23 96% 98% +2 37 35 -2 9 18 +9 271 336 +65 146 169 +23 100% 100% +0 67 60 -7 19 31 +12 476 527 +51 151 160 +9 99% 99% +0 56 94 +38 17 26 +9 443 558 +115 67 97 +30 79% 99% +20 34 52 +18 6 22 +16 159 395 +236 79 116 +37 91% 97% +6 32 94 +62 4 16 +12 207 458 +251 78 123 +45 93% 100% +7 13 61 +48 13 28 +15 220 471 +251 174 180 +6 99% 100% +1 64 94 +30 29 39 +10 530 638 +108 35 72 +37 85% 93% +8 10 19 +9 6 11 +5 79 212 +133 Pathway 5 Well above typical rate of progress 4 Above typical rate of progress 3 Typical rate of progress 2 Below typical rate of progress 1 Well below typical rate of progress © 2013 Dynamic Measurement Group, Inc. | Printed on June 18, 2013 Figure 2. Sample Classroom Pathways of Progress Report DIBELS, DIBELS Next, and DIBELSnet are registered trademarks of Dynamic Measurement Group, Inc. http://dibels.org/ Pathways of Progress is a trademark of Dynamic Measurement Group, Inc. Page 1