March, 2015 Journal of Resources and Ecology J. Resour. Ecol. 2015 6 (2) 065-072 DOI:10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2015.02.001 www.jorae.cn Vol.6 No.2 Silk Road Resources, Environment and Economic Patterns and Sustainable Development Modes of the Silk Road Economic Belt DONG Suocheng1, LI Zehong1*, LI Yu1, SHI Guangyi1, YU Huilu2, WANG Juanle1, LI Jun3, MAO Qiliang4 and HUANG Yongbin1,2 1 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3 Anhui University of Technology, Maanshan 243032, China; 4 Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China Abstract: The paper analyzes the distribution pattern of resources, ecological environment, society and economy, and holds that it is conducive to Silk Road countries to carry out Omni-directional and multi-level economic cooperation. Then the article puts forth main modes and paths of sustainable economic development for the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB): ecological civilization mode, regional economic integration mode, transportation economic belt mode and international tourism economic zone mode. Finally, the article summarizes the key scientific issues for the sustainable development in the SREB and puts forward several action projects which include establishing International Scientists League and Think Tanks, establishing international information sharing platform and scientific policy-making system of ecological environment and sustainable development of the SREB, starting international science cooperation and technology traineeship program of the SREB, founding the international cooperation committee in the SREB and founding transnational construction and win-win cooperation mechanism of coping with climate change and ecological environment. Key words: resources; environment and economic patterns; economic cooperation; sustainable development; key scientific issues; Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) 1 Introduction President XI Jinping proposed a Silk Road Economic Belt strategy, on a visit to Kazakhstan in Sep., 2013, to promote greater cooperation, development and prosperity among the countries of Asia, Europe and Africa. Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB), across Asia, Europe and Africa, covers an area of 55.39 × 106 km2, accounting for about 43% of the world total, according to our research, its population (4.67 billion) and GDP (27.4 trillion USD) account for 66.9% and 38.2%, respectively (Dong et al. 2014). To build international SREB, under complex geopolitical context, it should highlight distribution patterns of natural resources and socio-economic situation, thereby making scientific regional sustainable development strategies: under the ecological civilization framework, promoting cooperation and mutual trust of ecology, environment, natural resources, tourism and culture amongst countries. In order to implement the strategy of building the SREB put forward by Chairman XI Jinping, we initiated and convened a successful “International Conference on Ecology, Environment and Sustainable Development of Silk Road Economic Belt” from June 15 to 16 of 2014. The conference was approved by Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and sponsored by Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, supported by National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China, China Development Bank and State Administration of Foreign Experts Affairs, the P. R. of China. The collaborative Received: 2014-09-15 Accepted: 2015-02-11 Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China (41271556; 41101117); National Natural Science Foundation of China and Russian Foundation for Basic Research (4141101065; 15-56-53037). * Corresponding author: LI Zehong. Email: lizehong@igsnrr.ac.cn. 66 scientific research institutions came from Russia, Mongolia, Pakistan, India, Germany, etc. Two hundred representatives came from seventeen nations, the Untied Nation Organizations, and nineteen China government departments. The theme of this meeting is to unite international scientists to study potential strategies and new development modes which are conducive to ecological environment, sustainable development, and international cooperation platform construction in the SREB. This meeting has gained fruitful achievements and profound influences. More than 40 participants from 17 countries gave the conference keynote reports. The participants agreed and supported the strategic construction of the SREB, and also put forward that the science and technology is the main motivation. As the conference Chairman, academician SUN Honglie, the former president of CAS, pointed out that the science and technology exchange is important in the Silk Road which needs comprehensive researches in scientific community. The Co-Chairman academician SUN Jiulin mentioned that most regions along the Silk Road are ecological fragile and the environment is relatively poor, those challenges need international scientists’ cooperative research to cope with. Academician Arnold K. TULOKHONOV who is one member of Russian federal Assembly emphasized that science and technology innovation should be one of the important contents. FANG Xin, the deputy secretary of the Communist Party Committee of CAS, the academician of the Academy of Developing Countries, pointed out that the construction of the SREB is the international trend which will benefit to the people all over the world, we must strengthen policy communication, culture exchange, science cooperation and technology cooperation, etc. This conference proposed some main international scientific questions in building of the SREB. Akhmetkal MEDEU, the academician and the director of Kazakhstan National Institute of Geographical Research, has proposed some key questions related to the infrastructure and macroeconomic environment construction in SREB. Ramiz MAMEDOV, the academician of Azerbaijan Academy of Sciences, has proposed the ecological vulnerability and complexity in building of the SREB in central Asia. DONG Suocheng, professor of Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research and the vice-chairman of this conference, has proposed six international scientific questions and the models of sustainable development and innovation in SREB, which were well recognized by all participants. Peter BAKLANOV, the academician of Russian Academy of Sciences, has proposed the development model of traffic economic belt in the north of the trans-continent of Eurasia. Igor S. ZONN, the academician of Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, has proposed the transformation approach from the Great Silk Road to the Oil and Gas Transactions Road. We selected some papers which are broadly representative Journal of Resources and Ecology Vol.6 No.2, 2015 from over 40 conferences keynote reports, which reflected patterns of resources, environment, economy and culture of the SREB from different perspective, explored ways to make SREB supported by science and technology. Through these works, common concern from international academic world can be aroused and guided to support this great strategy, which can benefit people of every country along the Silk Road, improve cooperation and mutual benefits and promote global economic development. We hope that more and more far-sighted people can actively participate in the great enterprise of exploring and constructing of SREB. 2 Resource and environment pattern of SREB 2.1 The background of ecology and environment of the SREB The geographical, ecological and environmental condition is influencing the SREB. According to the requirements of the planning and construction of the SREB, a serial of ecology and environmental factors are analyzed as below, including soil, land use, land cover, ecological zone, temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, sandstorm, pollutants, and so on. Natural environment in the SREB is complicated. The elevation of most area along the Silk Road is below 3500 m, which accounts for 95.96%. The areas below 200 m accounts for 31.30% and below 1000 m accounts for 77.33% (Li et al. 2014). This situation fit for resource exploitation and economic development at various step. In the research area, the area of Leptosol-LP soil grouping (very shallow soils over hard rock or in unconsolidated very gravelly material) is the largest in all types of soil groupings. The western and eastern of Silk Road Economic Belt cover grassland, forest, belonging to developed economic area; while the middle of the SREB cover barren, shrub land, belonging to developing area. The SREB has higher temperature and lack precipitation, and is influenced by global change, many problems need to be jointly solved by people of surrounding countries. The desertification is serious in this zone. Average wind field in spring from 2011 to 2014, is controlled by westerly jet at the middle and higher troposphere. Pollutants and dust originated from North Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Middle Asia were transported to East Asia by westerly jet. The spatial distribution of pollutants in the SREB have its own characters. Total, dust and sulfate AOD (aerosol optical depth) indicate that dust storm was frequent in this area in spring, and pollutants were mainly originated from East Asia, Southern Asia and Europe. The source area of sulfate, organic carbon and black carbon are East Asia and Europe, and the most important source is North Africa. The most important emissions and deposition areas of sulfur, nitrogen are East Asia and Western Europe, while phosphorus are North Africa and Middle East (Li et al. 2014). DONG Suocheng, et al.: Resources, Environment and Economic Patterns and Sustainable Development Modes of the Silk Road Economic Belt Table 1 The percentage of nonferrous metal reserve of the SREB countries in the world (unit: %). 2.2 Natural resources pattern For centuries, the countries along the Silk Road have inherent advantages of resources cooperation and wide development space of resources market due to adjacency relationship. Middle East is abundant in oil; Russia, Central Asia and North Africa have abundant oil and gas resources; the area of resources’ production is not identical to its consumption area. SREB is the most centralized area of coal exploitation and consumption in the world, there is vast cooperation space for energy resources trade in SERB. The Silk Road Economic Belt is a global main production and consumption areas of non-ferrous metal mineral and iron mineral. The main production areas of iron ore, copper ore and bauxite are not identical to its main consumption areas. Nonferrous metals are rich in China, Central Asia, Russia and Mongolia (Table 1). China’s consumption and exploitation is quite huge, especially nonferrous metals, such as tungsten, lead, antimony and molybdenum, which made great contribution to world economy. For three minerals of iron ore, copper ore and bauxite, China is one of the biggest consumption countries in the world, but the reserves of these three minerals in China are limited, its reserves in China just can meet demand of 20 years, so there will be a huge demand gap. On the contrary, other countries in the economic Zone, such as Russia and Kazakhstan, which metal mine reserve is rich with limited consumption demand, have a huge possible space to enhance its metal mineral export. Spatial dismatch of consumption and production areas of nonferrous metals is beneficial to international natural resource trade. To some extent, for the emerging market economies, Mineral resources China Copper ore Bauxite Uranium ore Tungsten ore Nickel ore Cobalt ore Gold ore Potassium salt ore Lead ore Zinc ore Antimony ore Tin ore Phosphorus ore Molybdenum ore 4.4 3.0 4.4 59.4 4.0 1.1 3.7 2.2 15.7 17.2 52.8 30.6 5.5 39.1 Other Central Russia Mongolia countries Asia 1.0 4.4 0.0 7.9 0.6 0.7 0.0 16.0 14.5 0.6 0.0 3.0 0.0 7.8 0.0 0.4 0.0 8.1 0.0 6.7 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.3 3.3 9.6 0.0 5.8 0.0 34.5 0.0 10.6 0.0 10.3 0.0 2.9 4.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 2.8 19.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 0.0 24.9 0.0 1.9 0.0 85.1 1.7 2.3 1.5 1.8 Data source: World mineral resources annual review 2013. Beijing: Geological Publishing House, 2013. such as China, India, there is complementary need in metal resources trade between these countries and other countries in SREB, and it will become a vaster market in metal resources trade in the future. 2.3 Economic pattern Economic development of the Silk Road Zone reveals three gradients across east, middle, and west (Fig. 1). The east zone includes emerging economy like China, N Legend Fig. 1 Spatial differentiation of GDP per capita in the SREB (2012). Data source: World Bank. 67 GDP per capita (USD) 687-3873 3874-8437 8438-18689 18690-33813 33814-92632 Ancient Silk Road Trans-Siberian Railway Maritime Silk Road 0 750 1500 3000 km 68 Journal of Resources and Ecology Vol.6 No.2, 2015 Russia and India, large country scale, is in middle age of industrialization, and economic is continuously growing rapidly due to institution reform and opening up. The middle zone includes two typical types. One is high income countries with abundant endowment of resources, such as petroleum exporting countries in Middle East; another is less development countries with abundant endowment of resources such as Central Asia countries, they are in primary stage of industrialization, and the economy grows with relative low speed (Gao 2009; Yu et al. 2014). The west zone includes EU countries and other developed countries. Economic development relies on tech innovation, recently, reveals low economic growth rate due to international financial crisis. The east zone is the global manufacturing factory; they have relative abundant capital, labors and technology resources. The west zone has advantages in research, brand and intellectual property with urgent need of development resources. The middle zone has very abundant natural resources and its economic development relies on oil export, but with single industrial structure. Economic and urban development in coastal areas is mainly located in the Pacific coast and the Indian Ocean region. Along river, development of regional economy and urbanization is mainly distributed eight urban belts. Along the road, economic and urban development areas are mainly distributed in the first Eurasian Continental Bridge, the second Continental Bridge, and the third Mainland Bridge. The spatial differentiation of urbanization level showed a decreasing trend from northwest to southeast. The regional population showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. 2.4 Tourism industrial pattern In spatial distribution, natural tourism resources are being concentrated on inland, which mainly spread in the Eurasia Land Bridge and the Maritime Silk Road as belts (Fig. 2), and cultural tourism resources are abundant in coastland, which spread in the Eurasia Land Bridge and the Maritime Silk Road as Zones (Fig. 3). In quantity distribution, there is a decline trend from Europe in the west, Asia and the Pacific in the east, and the Middle east-Africa in the central area (Guo 2014). Tourism economy increased rapidly, which had been well considered as the most active area all over the world, but significant differences appear in regional development speed. Tourism economy shows a distribution characteristic of two central areas and three development axes, and emerging economies and traditional capitalist countries along the Eurasia Land Bridge and the Maritime Silk Road have been the main influences on the tourism development in the Silk Road (Fig. 4). The characteristics of spatial distribution on tourism resources and tourism economy have high similarity: western and eastern sides of the Silk Road are the tourism resources-abundant regions, major tourist markets and tourism destinations. Central region of the Silk Road is usually considered as tourism resources- inadequate region and tourism under-developed region. 3 Main modes and paths of sustainable economic development for SREB To promote the level of sustainable development of the SREB, the best way is to explore a typical mode which is N Fig. 2 Distribution density of natural tourism resources in the Silk Road. Data source: International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Legend Northern route of SR Middle route of SR Southern route of SR Natural tourism resources Distrib. density (per 104 km2) 0-0.249 0.249-0.336 0.336-0.585 0.585-1.299 1.299-3.347 3.347-9.220 9.220-26.066 26.066-74.380 0 1500 3000 6000 km 69 DONG Suocheng, et al.: Resources, Environment and Economic Patterns and Sustainable Development Modes of the Silk Road Economic Belt N Legend Northern route of SR Middle route of SR Southern route of SR Cultural tourism resources Distrib. density (per 104 km2) 0-0.031 0.031-0.110 0.110-0.225 0.225-0.366 0.366-0.549 0.549-0.763 0.763-0.988 0.988-1.333 0 1500 3000 Fig. 3 Distribution density of cultural tourism resources in the Silk Road. Data source: International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). 6000 km N Southeast European & Mediterranean tourism area The Seco nd Eurasi The T an Land B hird E The urasia ridge Mar n Lan itim e Si d Brid ge East & Southeast Asia tourism area lk R oad Legend Tourism' direct contribution to GDP (Billion USD) Fig. 4 Distribution pattern of tourism economy in the Silk Road. Data source: UNWTO. 0-126.64 126.64-367.83 367.83-848.04 848.04-2387.63 suitable for its basic regional conditions, for its geopolitical circumstances based on distribution patterns of its resources, environment, ecology, society and economy. Main principles that should be obeyed in the process of revival for the Silk Road include: Solidarity and mutual trust, cooperation with winwin results, strengthen communication, overall planning, ecological civilization, green rising; scientific support, people’s livelihood first. 0 1500 3000 6000 km 3.1 Ecological civilization mode Passing through agricultural civilization and industrial civilization, human society is marching towards Ecological civilization which advocates harmonious coexistence between human and nature. And the core ideology is to respect nature, to follow nature, and to protect nature, and to drive human sustainable development. The general mode of Ecological civilization: the basic 70 premise is protect the spatial ecology, the crucial support is good ecological environment, the drive force is flourishing ecological economy, the leading ideology is advanced ecological culture, the important guarantee is thorough ecological regime, the direct behavior is high quality living environment. Finally, Silk Road ecological civilization system of six in one will be set up. The main countermeasures to realize the goal include: protect important ecological space along Silk Road by means of natural reserves; build Silk Road ecological economic Zone on the basis of circular economics; building monitoring and early warning and emergency system of ecological environment in SREB; carrying forward culture of Silk Road and advocating core value of ecological culture; building convention of ecological civilization system of Silk Road; building ecological homestead of Silk Road. 3.2 Regional economic integration mode Generally speaking, there are two main cooperation types in resources trade. Firstly, enterprise oriented cooperation mode. The basic framework of enterprise oriented cooperation mode is encouraging countries abundant in natural resources open its mining market to foreign mining enterprises by means of overseas equity acquisition, venture investment, capacity purchase, etc (Zhao and Fang 2014). It has three basic paths to achieve its goals: overseas equity acquisition, venture investment, and capacity purchase. Secondly, international geopolitical cooperation mode: The basic logical framework of the mode is that different countries with abundance of various resources can cooperate with each other by constructing national-level organizations that share common interests. It includes three modalities: Joint venture development, energy community mode, and strategic alliance mode (He 2010). Three strategic steps to create the economic community of the Silk Road. Firstly, it is need to found regional common market and rolling program of internationalization of RMB. Secondly, it can carry out integration of ChinaCentral Asia regional finance, and establish a free trade area when conditions are ripe for the countries. Thirdly, we should construct economic community of the Silk Road, and promote integrated development in the key areas. Core-periphery interaction and optimization of Eurasian development spatial pattern: relying on the leading position of big country of the Silk Road, the unified space of economic, resources and other aspects of Eurasia should be remodeled. Taking advantage of the radiation driven effect of the three great powers of EU, China and Russia, under the guidance of the concept of “five communication” (policy, road, trade, circulation and people), and on the basis of actively promoting the construction of a major thoroughfare, the “two axes and two belts” spatial development of continental Silk Road and maritime Silk Road should be formed. All countries are equal participants, cooperative Journal of Resources and Ecology Vol.6 No.2, 2015 and win-win “community of interests” and “community of destiny” with mutual benefit (Zhou 2006; Zhang and Yang 2009). Through cooperation and exchanges, the geopolitical advantage should be turned into the results of pragmatic cooperation, and eventually forming a rational international division of labor gradient (Yang et al. 2013; Cao 2007). 3.3 Transportation economic belt mode Firstly, set Beijing, Almaty, Moscow, Warsaw, Berlin, Rotterdam along Trans-Siberian Railway; Xi’an, Lanzhou, Urumqi, Tashkent, Ashgabat, Tehran, Istanbul, and Budapest along Old Silk Road; Shanghai, Singapore, Mumbai, Karachi, Dubai, and Cairo along Maritime Silk Road as pole cities. Secondly, build 5 passageways linking pole cities, i n c l u d i n g C e n t r a l P a s s a g e w a y, C h o n g q i n g - E u r o Passageway, China-India-Bangladesh-Burma Passageway, Air Express Passageway (Fig. 5), Sea Transportation Passageways, and form transportation networks. Thirdly, along transportation networks, centered with urban agglomeration, form Silk Road transportation economic belt with 7 zones, including East Asian economic zone, Central Asian economic zone, Middle East economic zone, Mediterranean economic zone, West European economic zone, Middle-Eastern European economic zone, South Asia economic zone (Fig. 5). 3.4 The development mode of international tourism economic zone in the Silk Road The first solution is to build the Silk Road international tourism union and international ecological and cultural tourism zones for improving the regional cooperation mechanism. The strategies contain that building the Silk Road international tourism union to improve the regional cooperation mechanism; building international ecological and cultural tourism zone, route and product by exploring, packaging, and designing the local tourism resources; holding international tourism cooperation forum annually or biannually to create the Silk Road ecological and cultural tourism brand images and to promote different industries integration. The second solution is to build the Silk Road barrierfree tourism zone and special tourism economic zone for pushing the development of the Silk Road regional economic integration. The strategies contain that enhancing tourism planning integration, investment policy integration, resource exploration integration, tourism route integration, administrative standard integration, regional market integration, tourism information integration, tourism communication integration, tourism visa integration, clearing form integration to achieve coordinated tourism development in Silk Road; exempting from all types of taxes and charges except the profit tax for foreign tourism enterprise; implementing preferential customs policies for tourism enterprise in this zone; implementing special DONG Suocheng, et al.: Resources, Environment and Economic Patterns and Sustainable Development Modes of the Silk Road Economic Belt 71 N Berlin Moscow Yinchuan Istanbul Cairo Beijing Dubai Legend City population (104 people) <25 25-50 50-100 100-500 >500 Study area Central Passageway Air Express Passageway Trans-Siberian Railway Chongqing-Euro Passageway China-India-Bangladesh-Burma Passageway Sea Transportation Passageway 0 750 1500 exchange system and flexible visa system to foreign tourist. The third solution is to build the cooperation platform of international tourism cities along the Silk Road on the basis of international friendly cities nowadays. The strategies contain that developing a common strategy for tourist visa openness and facilitation in Silk Road; increasing the number of international port with visa exemption; opening up international routes, which connect the East Europe and West Europe by multinational aviation network; improving the quality of road networks from the central cities to every tourist attraction in this region; developing tourism routes and products together; promoting the international cultural exchange and industry cooperation. 3.5 Technology cultural cooperation mode To establish long-term cultural exchange mechanism of the Silk Road, to improve the international scientific and technological cooperation system and related mechanisms. To promote international scientific and technological cooperation through major science and technology projects, and implement complementary and interchangeable cooperation. 4 Key scientific issues for sustainable development of the SREB In order to achieve the goal of sustainable development, Professor DONG Suocheng, the vice-chairman and secretary-general of the conference, put forward six international scientific problems that should be studied and solved to develop Silk Road Economic Belt and had been accepted by scientists attended the conference. These 3000 km Fig. 5 Air express passageway. issues include: (i) the evolution and driving forces of LUCC (Land-Use and Land-Cover Change) and sustainable utilization of land and water resources in the SREB; (ii) assessment of resource and environment carrying capacity and ecological service functions, the spatial patterns and interactive mechanism of ecology, environment, and socioeconomy systems and innovative models of sustainable development in different countries of the SREB; (iii) science and technology of monitoring, prediction, warning and treatment of trans-boundary anti-desertification, sandstorm, drought, water and soil erosion, earth quake and disruptive natural disasters in the SREB; (iv) impacts and response and international cooperation of global climate change on the SREB; (v) the international poverty alleviation cooperation mechanism and path of the countries along the SREB; and (vi) international cooperation for scientific information system and big data sharing mechanism and platform, scientific decision-making supporting systems and think tanks, and internet economy development of the SREB. Several priority action projects should be carried out to solve these issues: establishing International Scientists League and Think Tanks in the SREB; establishing international information sharing platform and scientific policy-making system of ecological environment and sustainable development in the SREB; starting international scientific cooperation and technology traineeship program of the SREB; founding the international cooperation committee in the SREB; and founding transnational construction and win-win cooperation mechanism of coping with climate change and ecological environment. 72 Journal of Resources and Ecology Vol.6 No.2, 2015 Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank GUO Peng, ZHAO Zhongping, WANG Fei, CHENG Hao, WANG Zhe, LI Fei, YUAN Liang, ZHANG Xiaoxiao, GU Yingying, GAO Mengxu, BAI Zhongqiang, ZHU Junxiang, ZHU Huazhong, BU Kun and LIU Peng of Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources research, CAS for thoughtful suggestions about this study. 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(in Chinese). 丝绸之路经济带资源、环境和经济格局与可持续发展模式 董锁成1,李泽红1,李 宇1,石广义1,于会录2,王卷乐1,李 俊3,毛琦梁4,黄永斌1,2 1 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101; 2 中国科学院大学,北京 100049; 3 安徽工业大学,马鞍山 243032; 4 首都经贸大学,北京 100070 摘 要:本文分析了丝绸之路经济带的资源、环境和经济格局,认为该格局有利于丝绸之路经济带沿线国家之间开展多领 域、多层次的经济合作;在此基础上,论文提出了丝绸之路经济带主要经济合作模式和可持续发展道路,包括生态文明模式, 区域经济一体化模式,交通经济带模式,国际旅游带合作模式;最后,论文总结了丝绸之路经济带实现可持续发展需要解决的 关键科学问题,并提出了几个优先行动计划:建立丝绸之路经济带国际科学家联盟和思想库,建立丝绸之路经济带生态环境与 可持续发展国际信息共享中心和科学决策支持系统,启动丝绸之路跨国科技交流合作与人才计划,建立丝绸之路经济带可持续 发展国际合作委员会,建立应对气候变化和生态环境跨国共建、合作共赢机制。 关键词:资源;环境和经济格局;经济合作;可持续发展;关键科学问题;丝绸之路经济带