Q4 2014 | OFFICE PITTSBURGH | PENNSYLVANIA OFFICE MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Incremental Growth In Pittsburgh’s Office Market In the fourth quarter of 2014, Pittsburgh office vacancy decreased by 0.03% for an overall vacancy rate of 8.1%. Contributing to this growth is Pittsburgh’s continued momentum in the areas of energy, banking, health care and research and a vibrant CBD housing market. Although growth continues to be promising, anticipated major vacancies will occur in buildings such as 525 William Penn Place and USX Tower. Adding to the pressure, the newly purchased Union Trust Building will be bringing approximately 250,000 square feet of newly retrofitted space on line this year. Net absorption for the overall Pittsburgh market was a positive 868,224 square feet in the fourth quarter of 2014. Tenants moving from large blocks of space include: UPMC Health Plan vacating 168,802 square feet at One Chatham Center and taking 140,967 square feet at Heinz 57 Center and Computer Sciences Corporation moving into 57,501 square feet at Penn Liberty Plaza I. MARKET INDICATORS Q3 2014 Q4 2014 VACANCY RATE AVAILABILITY RATE RENTAL RATE NET ABSORPTION GROSS ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION UPDATE U.S. Vacancy Comparison, Past 10 Quarters While the concept of adaptive reuse of office buildings is not new, Pittsburgh has retrofitted 2 million square feet of office space for conversion to hotel and residential uses since 2011. Primarily this has affected older buildings allowing for the development of two new Class A high rise office towers for PNC, which will deliver approximately 800,000 square feet of space when PNC completes its second tower this summer. The Class B office market recorded net absorption of a positive 482,239 square feet during the fourth quarter. Class B buildings reported a vacancy rate of 8.7% and Class C buildings reported a vacancy rate of just 7.5%. The average quoted rental rate for all classes was $20.61 per square foot. This represents a 3.2% increase in quoted rental rates from the end of the third quarter. The average quoted rental rate for Class A space was $26.56 while Class B space was $18.75 and Class C was $14.49 per square foot. During the quarter, two buildings totaling 556,643 square feet were completed. At the end of the quarter, 2,324,245 square feet of new office space was under construction. The largest project is The Tower at PNC Plaza comprised of 800,000 square feet. In the past decade, the CBD has seen an increase of in excess of 5,000 new jobs. Approximately 20% of CBD employment is filled by workers below 30 years of age, with 57% of these jobs paying $40,000 per year. This influx of new salaried workers has fueled a vibrant restaurant scene that along with entertainment venues such as The Benedum Center, Heinz Hall, The O’Rielly Public Theatre create a rich night life and cultural experience. www.colliers.com/Markets/Pittsburgh RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q1 2010 | RESIDENTIAL | DIVISION NAME Q4 2014 | OFFICE | PITTSBURGH Lights, Camera, Action! Pittsburgh Emerges as “Hollywood East” Pittsburgh’s main connection with the entertainment industry has been the impressive number of famous actors and actresses who have attended the School of Drama program at Carnegie Mellon University. The entire list is far too long but some of the notable individuals include James Cromwell, Ted Danson, Holly Hunter, and Ethan Hawke. Carnegie Mellon University graduate and television producer Steven Bochco based his highly popular and influential NBC drama, Hill Street Blues (1981-1986) in Pittsburgh’s Hill District, an urban working class neighborhood located above the former Civic Arena site. However, the show was actually filmed in Los Angeles as at the time Pittsburgh did not have the reputation as a city capable of supporting film production. It is not that Pittsburgh is a complete stranger to Hollywood as such highly acclaimed films as The Deer Hunter (1978) and The Silence of the Lambs (1991) were partly shot here. However, Hollywood’s perception of Pittsburgh has changed dramatically over the past ten years as the city has gained significant momentum as a desired shooting location as dozens of both television shows and major motion pictures have been filmed here during this time. A glance at the list of recent films shot in Pittsburgh reveals an eclectic mix of large budget blockbuster films, including The Dark Knight Rises (2012), Tom Cruise’s Jack Reacher (2012), the comedy She’s Out of My League (2010), dramas Promised Land (2013) and Out of the Furnace (2013), The Wonder Boys (2000), Slapshot (1977), Flashdance (1983), Gung Ho (1986) and smaller art-house films like The Perks of Being a Wallflower (2012). Industry experts cite some of the main drivers for Pittsburgh’s recent success are the city’s unique topography which of course include three rivers, county bridges and tunnels and steep hills reminiscent of San Francisco, the relatively low expenses as compared to Los Angeles and other major cities and the availability of a tax credit to drive down overall production costs. The film tax program in Pennsylvania was reworked in 2007 to provide for $75 million in annual film tax credits. This figure was subsequently revised down to $60 million by state lawmakers. The Pittsburgh Film Office estimated that nearly $100 million dollars was brought into the Pittsburgh region over a three year period as a result of film production. The filming boom has had a modest impact on Pittsburgh’s overall Commercial Real Estate market, but some developers have taken note. Michael Dolan, president of Island Studios, recently broke ground on a new $300 million dollar and 80,000 square foot film studio on a former railroad site in McKees Rocks, west of downtown Pittsburgh. “This would not exist without the film tax credit program. That is a fact”, stated Mr. Dolan in a recent interview, “It (film tax credit) is critical to this business.” 31st Street Studios in the historical Strip District neighborhood of Pittsburgh’s greater downtown submarket boasts a 300,000 square foot production studio, which was founded in 2011 by investment banker and Pittsburgh native, Chris Breakwell. According to its web site, the studio was built on a former steel mill site and is the largest production studio in the United States outside of New York or Los Angeles. All indicators appear to be pointing in a positive direction for Pittsburgh to continue to gain momentum in the film industry. Unquestionably, one of the keys to this desired successful outcome will be the state’s future policies related to the film tax credit. Images From http://www.31ststreetstudios.com/ P. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | OFFICE | PITTSBURGH RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q1 2010Q4| 2014 RESIDENTIAL DIVISION NAME MARKET COMPARISONS - TOTAL OFFICE MARKET STATISTICS Q4 2014 > QUARTERLY COMPARISON AND TOTALS EXISTING INVENTORY BLDGS TOTAL RBA MARKET Armstrong County DIRECT SF VACANCY TOTAL SF VAC % YTD NET ABSORPTION YTD DELIVERIES UNDER CONST SF QUOTED RATES 0 0 $10.91 42 335,712 14,500 14,500 4.3% 3,616 Beaver County 316 2,937,146 133,622 133,622 4.5% 44,148 0 0 $14.07 Butler County 411 5,683,659 402,926 410,564 7.2% 46,454 63,000 0 $23.16 Central Business District 232 32,445,986 2,806,055 3,000,619 9.2% 487,948 370,643 959,246 $21.83 Greater Downtown 519 14,268,184 1,118,556 1,143,754 8.0% 130,192 178,869 163,011 $21.72 Monroeville 168 3,350,613 354,611 354,611 10.6% (21,074) 0 0 $17.80 North Pittsburgh 755 8,696,064 440,463 475,000 5.5% 197,929 215,200 89,000 $17.55 Northeast Pittsburgh 422 4,082,731 290,542 290,542 7.1% (33,882) 0 0 $17.17 Oakland 159 5,340,754 128,990 128,990 2.4% (28,816) 0 0 $16.65 Parkway East Corridor 755 10,790,051 1,163,585 1,172,607 10.9% (14,384) 0 443,244 $25.71 Parkway West Corridor 323 8,790,860 809,796 839,165 9.5% (61,821) 130,000 85,256 $20.36 South Pittsburgh 868 9,237,744 751,991 751,991 8.1% 33,778 104,751 0 $17.13 Washington County 411 7,463,741 457,159 460,936 6.2% 334,035 340,950 457,000 $18.32 West Pittsburgh 209 4,364,852 393,066 394,666 9.0% (110,991) 53,000 53,600 $20.11 Westmoreland County TOTALS 872 6,552,075 480,624 480,624 7.3% 184,253 0 73,888 $12.64 6,462 124,340,172 9,746,436 10,052,191 8.1% 1,191,385 1,456,413 2,324,245 $20.61 EXISTING INVENTORY TOTAL RBA VAC% NET ABSORPTION BLDGS DELIVERIES TOTAL RBA 10,052,191 8.1% 868,224 2 556,643 15 2,324,245 $20.61 10,029,692 10,363,772 8.4% 399,283 5 455,515 15 2,774,277 $19.97 9,827,669 10,307,540 8.4% 40,258 4 196,150 17 3,097,904 $19.84 123,131,864 9,681,964 10,151,648 8.2% (116,380) 5 248,105 17 2,794,810 $19.22 122,883,759 9,319,117 9,787,163 8.0% 180,928 2 98,471 18 2,502,673 $18.85 PERIOD BLDGS Q4 2014 6,462 124,340,172 9,746,436 Q3 2014 6,460 123,783,529 Q2 2014 6,455 123,328,014 Q1 2014 6,451 Q4 2013 6,446 VACANCY TOTAL SF DIRECT SF UC INVENTORY BLDGS TOTAL RBA QUOTED RATES COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | PITTSBURGH FEATURED OFFICE MARKET LEASE ACTIVITY PROPERTY LOCATION *One Gateway Center LEASE SF 14,329 SF LANDLORD TENANT SUBMARKET Hertz Investment Group Louis Plung & Associates CBD *3030 Penn Avenue 8,150 SF Tusk Development Wombat Security Technologies Greater Downtown *519 Penn Avenue 8,000 SF Human Services Center Corporation Allegheny Intermediate Unit Parkway East *1001 Liberty Avenue 7,415 SF Ix Liberty Center Owner Lp Robert Half International CBD *Two Gateway Center 5,332 SF Hertz Investment Group Solenture, Inc. CBD * Signifies transaction with Colliers involvement COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | PITTSBURGH FEATURED OFFICE MARKET SALE ACTIVITY PROPERTY LOCATION 2000 Technology Drive SQUARE FEET 67, 020 SF SALE PRICE $10,224,000 SUBMARKET MARKET DATA SOURCE: The CoStar Pittsburgh Office Report, Year-End 2014 Oakland Vacancy Rates By Class 2000-2014 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q1 2010 | RESIDENTIAL | DIVISION NAME Is It Time to Worry? COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | PITTSBURGH OFFICE TEAM There is little doubt that the economy of Western Pennsylvania has benefited in recent years from the exploration and production of natural gas. In 2004, Range Resources pioneered the Marcellus shale, the largest natural gas field in the United States, with the successful drilling of the Renz#1 well in Washington County, PA. Shortly thereafter, the global, diversified energy outfits followed suit, together with the oil field services providers and the gathering and midstream companies, all seeking to capitalize on the liquids-rich shale play. It is believed that the exploration of natural gas and the associated capital-intensive projects, such as Royal Dutch Shell’s contemplated ethane cracker in Beaver county and Sunoco Logistics’ Mariner East project, have the ability to reshape the region’s economy for generations to come. The precipitous fall in the price of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids has resulted in capital expenditure (capex) cutbacks, falling rigs counts, and job losses, signaling that trouble may be on the horizon. The price of Brent crude has slid roughly 60% from a high of $110.00/ barrel in June of 2014 to roughly $50.00/barrel in January of 2015 (the lowest level in close to 6 years) and the natural gas spot price closed at $2.89/MMBtu at the end of January (the lowest level since June of 2012). It is widely anticipated that the low prices will affect energy firms of every size, as large companies bleed profits and small firms are forced into distress. These market dynamics have lead many wonder whether there should be cause for concern in Western Pennsylvania. The general consensus is that much will depend upon where and when oil finds its bottom. However, there is reason to believe that the region is well-positioned to weather the storm. Western Pennsylvania’s diversified economy derives demand from various sectors including education, healthcare, technology, and professional services. All three of the submarkets that experienced significant energy-related demand continue to maintain healthy market fundamentals. The 79 South corridor and the Parkway West corridor, two of the energy sector’s favorites, continue to see strong leasing activity. Southpointe maintains a vacancy rate of just 2.5% and leasing activity along the Parkway West corridor is strong enough to warrant the development of four speculative office/flex projects. Along 79/279 North corridor, Class A vacancy stands at just 3% with asking rents of $27.26 per square foot. Additionally, Pittsburgh’s Central Business District, where virtually no companies directly tied to natural gas E&P have ventured, has continued to fare well with a Class A vacancy rate of just 6.4% and asking rents of $25.94 per square foot. In summary, both the CBD and suburban office markets in Western Pennsylvania are currently rather healthy. However, a prolonged period of depressed oil prices could adversely impact demand and potentially shift the balance from a Landlord’s market to a Tenant’s market. Further, one may assume that decisions will be painstaking and approvals difficult to obtain for the foreseeable future when negotiating transactions with energy-related occupiers. We are of the opinion that this is a situation that warrants close monitoring. Colliers International Statistics UNITED STATES: Revenues: $2.1 Billion Countries: 63 Offices: 485 Colliers International | Pittsburgh Two Gateway Center 603 Stanwix Street, Suite 125 Pittsburgh, PA 15222 TEL +1 412 321 4200 FAX +1 412 321 4400 www.colliers.com/markets/pittsburgh Professionals & Staff: 15,800 Advisors: 5,800 Square Feet Managed: 1.46 Billion* Lease/Sale Transactions: 80,000 Total Transaction Value: $75 Billion (Based on 2013 results) *Square footage includes office, industrial and retail property under management. Residential property is excluded from this total. All statistics are for 2013. www.colliers.com/Markets/Pittsburgh Q4 2014 | OFFICE | PITTSBURGH Paul Horan Founding Principal | Pittsburgh Office Brokerage +1 412 321 4200 | EXT. 205 paul.horan@colliers.com Patrick Sentner SIOR Founding Principal | Pittsburgh Occupier Services +1 412 321 4200 | EXT. 204 patrick.sentner@colliers.com Ralph Egerman Principal | Pittsburgh +1 412 321 4200 | EXT. 201 ralph.egerman@colliers.com Edward Lawrence MBA Principal | Pittsburgh Office Brokerage +1 412 321 4200 | EXT. 213 ed.lawrence@colliers.com Jessica Jarosz Vice President | Pittsburgh Occupier Services +1 412 321 4200 | EXT. 202 jessica.jarosz@colliers.com David Thor LEED AP Principal | Pittsburgh Occupier Services +1 412 321 4200 | EXT. 208 david.thor@colliers.com Alexis Wilkerson Associate | Pittsburgh Office Brokerage +1 412 321 4200 | EXT. 225 alexis.wilkerson@colliers.com This document/email has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising purposes. Colliers International statistics and data are audited annually and may result in revisions to previously reported quarterly and final year-end figures. Sources include The CoStar Pittsburgh Office Report, Year-End 2014, PIttsburgh Business Times, Trib Total Media, Whirl Magazine, 31st Street Studios website, National Real Estate Investor. Accelerating success.