Key indicators for the euro area

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KEY INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA
####
2014
2015
DG ECFIN - Directorate A - Policy, strategy, coordination and communication
1. Output
Economic Sentiment
Industrial confidence
Services confidence
Industrial production
(excluding construction)
Gross domestic product
Labour productivity
2. Private consumption
Consumer confidence
Retail confidence
Private consumption
Retail sales
3. Investment
Capacity utilisation
Production expectations (manuf.)
Gross fixed capital formation
- equipment investment
- construction investment
Change in stocks
4. Labour market
Employment expectations (manuf.)
Employment expectations (services)
Employment
Employment (000)
Compensation of employees per head
(nominal)
Unemployment expectations
Unemployment rate
Unemployment (000)
5. International transactions
World trade
Export order books
Trade balance (merchandise)
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Current-account balance
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
6. Prices
Consumer inflation expectations
Headline inflation (HICP)
Core HICP
Domestic producer prices
Import prices
Oil (Brent) in USD
Oil (Brent) in EUR
Non-energy commodity prices (EUR)
7. Monetary and financial indicators
Nominal interest rates (3 month)
Nominal interest rates (10 year)
ECB repo rate
Stock market (Eurostoxx)
Money demand (M3)
Loans to households
Loans to non-financial corporations
Bilateral exchange rate EUR/USD
Nominal effective exchange rate
2014
2015
15Q3
15Q4
16Q1
16Q2
indicator
balance
balance
% ch. on prev. period
% ch. on prev. year
% ch. on prev. period
% ch. on prev. year
% ch. on prev. period
% ch. on prev. year
100.0
-6.6
9.4
101.5
-3.8
4.9
104.2
-3.1
9.3
0.8
0.9
2.1
1.1
2.0
0.8
0.5
1.0
106.2
-2.4
12.7
0.1
1.8
0.4
2.0
0.1
0.7
104.0
-3.8
10.8
0.8
1.2
0.5
1.7
0.2
0.3
104.3
-3.4
11.3
-0.4
0.8
0.3
1.6
---
104.0
-3.6
11.6
1.3
1.9
1.5
104.5
-2.9
10.8
0.4
2.6
0.4
2.0
0.0
0.9
balance
balance
% ch. on prev. period
% ch. on prev. year
% ch. on prev. period
% ch. on prev. year
-12.8
-8.3
-10.2
-3.1
-6.2
1.6
1.3
0.8
1.8
0.7
1.5
2.7
-7.0
3.0
0.5
1.9
0.6
3.3
-6.4
5.1
0.3
1.7
0.2
2.5
-8.3
1.9
0.6
1.9
0.6
2.1
-7.8
1.8
0.2
1.7
0.1
1.4
level (%)
balance
% ch. on prev. period
% ch. on prev. year
% ch. on prev. period
% ch. on prev. year
% ch. on prev. period
% ch. on prev. year
contrib. to GDP (pp.)
81.2
5.9
80.4
7.9
81.3
8.0
1.3
1.5
3.1
3.0
4.8
0.0
-0.5
0.2
1.0
-0.1
81.2
8.3
0.5
2.7
0.5
3.0
0.2
1.6
0.2
81.6
9.0
1.4
3.7
3.2
6.0
1.3
2.7
0.1
81.9
6.9
0.4
2.5
1.9
5.9
1.2
1.8
-0.1
balance
balance
% ch. on prev. period
% ch. on prev. year
abs. ch. on prev. period
% ch. on prev. period
% ch. on prev. year
balance
% of lab. force
abs. ch. on prev. period
-9.9
5.2
-4.9
1.1
-2.3
6.4
0.7
0.6
872
1.1
1,594
1.9
26.6
1.3
21.5
11.6
-586
1.3
13.8
10.9
-1,190
-2.6
7.1
0.3
1.1
487
0.3
1.3
14.4
10.7
-495
-1.9
8.2
0.3
1.2
489
0.4
1.3
17.8
10.5
-295
-18.9
2.9
-13.4
178.9
1.6
-11.5
241.0
5.0
4.4
6.3
4.7
4.8
253.5
59.6
113.3
6.3
332.8
109.0
201.3
0.4
1.1
-11.5
58.0
0.4
5.7
1.2
5.9
80.8
-10.4
94.3
7.9
0.4
0.9
-1.5
-1.4
99.7
1.6
0.0
0.8
-2.7
-0.3
53.3
-8.3
74.8
-46.5
48.0
-8.6
-35.8
-9.4
-7.5
0.21
1.22
0.16
-0.02
0.54
0.05
12.6
1.9
0.1
-1.5
1.33
9.5
4.6
1.4
0.4
1.11
0.0
-16.5
0.6
-9.3
balance
% ch. on prev. year
% ch. on prev. year
% ch. on prev. year
% ch. on prev. year
level
% ch. on prev. period
% ch. on prev. year
level
% ch. on prev. period
% ch. on prev. year
% ch. on prev. period
% ch. on prev. year
level
level
level
% ch. on prev. period
% ch. on prev. year
% ch. on prev. year
% ch. on prev. year
% ch. on prev. year
level
% ch. on prev. period
% ch. on prev. year
% ch. on prev. period
% ch. on prev. year
19.1
07-Sep-16
Next update:
07-Oct-16
4-2016 5-2016 6-2016 7-2016 8-2016 9-2016
LTA(1)
% ch. on prev. period
% ch. on prev. year
balance
billion EUR
% ch. on prev. period
% ch. on prev. year
% ch. on prev. period
% ch. on prev. year
billion EUR
billion EUR
billion EUR
This update: (2)
(1) LTA=Long-Term Average
1
Apr-16 May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
104.6
-3.7
11.3
-1.1
0.3
104.4
-2.8
10.9
0.6
0.4
104.5
-2.6
11.2
---
103.5
-4.4
10.0
---
------
-9.3
1.3
-7.0
3.3
-7.2
0.8
-7.9
1.7
-8.5
-1.0
---
0.2
1.3
0.4
1.5
0.0
1.5
1.1
3.0
---
---
81.5
7.3
0.0
2.4
-----0.2
81.5
7.6
-5.9
-8.3
81.6
7.4
-6.9
---
-3.7
7.8
0.3
1.4
521
0.3
1.2
18.1
10.3
-272
-2.6
7.1
-----13.7
10.1
-289
-3.2
7.7
-2.8
7.6
-1.8
6.0
-1.5
8.3
-1.1
7.4
---
17.9
10.1
-90
12.4
10.1
-66
10.9
10.1
24
12.1
10.1
-43
16.3
---
----
0.6
0.4
-11.2
65.8
0.7
4.8
1.4
5.8
83.1
39.3
121.5
0.0
-0.1
-12.4
65.1
0.0
2.3
-0.1
3.2
87.4
43.5
142.6
-0.8
0.3
-12.9
73.3
1.1
2.2
0.4
2.8
96.5
48.9
147.7
-0.3
0.3
-12.6
25.3
-0.5
0.5
-12.8
24.6
0.7
0.1
-13.3
23.4
---11.3
--
---13.8
--
-----
36.5
7.9
121.1
31.8
38.6
7.6
28.2
2.4
19.0
----
----
----
3.3
0.1
0.9
-2.7
-0.7
51.2
-18.5
-50.5
46.1
-19.0
-40.9
-6.9
-8.7
2.5
0.2
0.9
-3.1
-1.1
44.7
-12.8
-42.6
40.8
-11.7
-34.6
-4.8
-12.6
2.7
0.0
0.9
-3.7
-2.8
35.2
-21.2
-35.8
31.9
-21.8
-34.8
-1.9
-14.6
3.8
-0.1
0.8
-3.8
-3.7
46.8
32.9
-25.6
41.5
30.1
-27.2
7.6
-6.5
2.9
-0.2
0.7
-4.4
-4.2
42.9
8.2
-28.6
37.8
6.0
-32.4
1.8
-8.5
3.4
-0.1
0.8
-3.8
-3.7
47.5
10.9
-27.4
42.0
11.1
-28.4
1.1
-6.9
5.1
0.1
0.8
-3.1
-3.1
49.9
5.0
-21.3
44.4
5.8
-21.4
1.8
-3.9
3.7
0.2
0.8
-2.9
-2.7
47.1
-5.6
-17.5
42.6
-4.3
-18.0
2.1
0.2
3.3
0.2
0.8
--46.8
-0.6
-2.1
41.8
-1.9
-2.9
-1.4
4.1
-----47.1
0.5
-2.8
42.2
1.1
-2.2
---
-0.03
0.69
0.05
-6.5
6.7
4.8
1.1
0.0
1.11
0.6
-16.1
1.6
-8.5
-0.09
0.56
0.05
-1.6
7.4
4.8
1.4
0.4
1.10
-1.5
-12.4
-0.3
-6.7
-0.19
0.30
0.04
-10.8
-13.6
5.1
1.6
1.1
1.10
0.6
-2.1
1.8
1.2
-0.26
0.12
0.00
0.0
-17.9
4.8
1.8
1.7
1.13
2.5
2.2
0.8
4.0
-0.25
0.18
0.00
0.0
-18.8
4.6
1.5
1.3
1.13
2.2
5.2
0.8
5.8
-0.26
-0.27
-0.29
-0.30
0.16
0.01
-0.12
-0.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-1.6
-2.4
0.3
2.5
-17.5
-17.3
-17.7
-13.1
4.9
5.0
4.8
-1.6
1.8
1.8
-1.6
1.7
1.9
-1.13
1.12
1.11
1.12
-0.2
-0.7
-1.4
1.3
1.4
0.1
0.7
0.7
0.3
-0.4
0.2
0.3
3.9
2.6
3.9
2.3
(2) Data available until the date of update
-0.30
-0.13
0.00
2.8
-2.8
---1.12
-0.4
-0.5
-0.2
1.3
KEY INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA
unemployment, which were only partly outweighed by
higher savings expectations and more optimistic views
on the future general economic situation. Households'
views on their future financial situation remained
broadly stable.
1. Output
Real GDP in the euro area continued growing in the
second quarter of 2016. According to Eurostat’s second
estimate, it increased by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q),
after having increased by 0.5% (q-o-q) during the
previous quarter. As compared to 2015-Q2, real GDP
increased by 1.6% year-on-year (y-o-y). According to
the Commission’s spring 2016 forecast, released on
3 May, GDP is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2016, and
by 1.8% in 2017. The lift from cheap oil is set to
gradually wane and the lagged boost from the euro’s
depreciation will soon have run its course. As a result,
the pace of private consumption growth, the main motor
of growth so far, is projected to slow somewhat next
year, even though employment gains and a modest
acceleration in wage growth should partly compensate
for the fading of these tailwinds.
In July, the volume of retail trade rose by 1.1% in the
euro area compared to June. Compared with July 2015,
the retail sales index increased by 2.9%. In August,
retail trade confidence plummeted (-2.7) due to
managers' more negative views on the present and
expected business situation, which were only somewhat
alleviated by improved assessments of the adequacy of
the volume of stocks.
3. Investment
In 2016-Q2, gross fixed capital formation was stable
compared to 2016-Q1, after having increased by 0.4% in
the previous quarter. Compared to the same quarter of
the previous year, investment increased by 2.4%. In
2016-Q3, the rate of capacity utilisation in
manufacturing industry (data collected in July 2016)
remained broadly unchanged at 81.6% (0.1 pts. higher
than in April), whereas capacity utilisation in the
services sector remained unchanged (89.0%).
In August 2016, the Commission’s Economic
Sentiment Indicator decreased from 104.5 to 103.5.
The deterioration of euro-area sentiment resulted from
weakened confidence in all business sectors but
construction, as well as, to a lesser extent, among
consumers.
The marked decrease in industry confidence (-1.8) was
caused by the sharpest deterioration in managers'
assessments of the current level of overall order books
since February 2009. The appraisals of the other two
components were either unchanged (stocks of finished
products) or slightly worse (production expectations).
4. Labour market
In July 2016, the unemployment rate was 10.1%, stable
compared to June. Compared to July 2015,
unemployment was down by 0.7 pps. This is the lowest
rate recorded since July 2011.
The PMI Composite Output Index for the euro area
reached a 19-month low in August, ticking slightly lower
(52.9) than the flash estimate (53.3) and than the index
in July (53.2). The decrease was slightly larger in the
Manufacturing PMI (-0.3) than in the Services PMI
(-0.1).
In 2016-Q1, seasonally-adjusted employment was 0.3%
higher than in 2015-Q4 and 1.4% higher than in
2015-Q1. According to the Commission’s survey results,
in August 2016 employment expectations saw upward
revisions in construction and, to a lesser extent, industry,
while they shrank in services and remained broadly
unchanged in retail trade.
In June 2016, industrial production increased by 0.6%
month-on-month (m-o-m), after falling by 1.2% in May.
The increase was due to production of capital goods
rising by 1.3%, durable consumer goods by 1.0% and
non-durable consumer goods by 0.7%, while production
of intermediate goods fell by 0.2% and energy by 0.6%.
5. International transactions
In June, the world trade volume (goods) increased by
0.7% (m-o-m), following a 0.5% decrease in May. In
August, views on export order books in
manufacturing were more negative (-13.8 points) than
in May (-11.3 points), remaining above its long-term
average.
2. Private consumption
In 2016-Q2, private consumption increased by 0.2%
q-o-q, but made only a smaller contribution to growth
than in previous quarters. With respect to the same
period of the previous year, private consumption was up
by 1.7%. In August, consumer confidence eased (-0.6),
reflecting more pessimistic views on future
In June, the seasonally adjusted trade balance was in
surplus at €23.4 bn, up compared with May. The
seasonally adjusted current-account balance also
recorded a surplus in June (€28.2 bn). This reflected
2
KEY INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA
surpluses for goods (€32.9 billion) and services (€5.3
billion), which were partly offset by a deficit in
secondary income (€10.1 billion). The primary income
account was close to balance.
concerning future monetary policy
benchmark sovereign bond yields
reached negative territory for the
September, the benchmark yield of
bonds stood at -0.169%.
6. Prices
The July 2016 Bank Lending Survey showed a further
improvement in loan supply conditions for loans to
enterprises and households in the second quarter of
2016, as well as a continued increase in loan demand for
all loan categories. Credit standards for loans to
enterprises eased further. Credit standards on loans to
households for house purchase eased marginally, while
credit standards on consumer credit and other lending to
households continued to ease.
In July, annual HICP inflation was 0.2%, up from 0.1%
in June. Looking at the main components of euro area
inflation, the largest upward impacts came from
restaurants & cafés (+0.11 percentage points), vegetables
(+0.09 pps) and fruit (+0.08 pps), while fuels for
transport (-0.46 pps), heating oil (-0.15 pps) and gas (0.12 pps) had the biggest downward impacts.
The Commission’s spring 2016 forecast projects HICP
inflation at 0.2% in 2016 and 1.4% in 2017. According
to the Commission surveys, consumer price
expectations decreased in August for the second
consecutive month from 3.7 points to 3.3 points.
changed. In June,
in the euro area
first time. On 6
ten-year sovereign
The annual rate of change of M3 in July 2016 decreased
to 4.8%, from 5.0% in June. The annual growth of loans
to the private sector (adjusted for sales and
securitisation) increased to 1.7% (from 1.5% in June).
The annual growth of loans to households (adjusted)
stood at 1.8% in July (stable compared to June), while
the annual growth rate of loans to non-financial
corporations increased with 0.1 pps m-o-m to 1.9%.
In July, industrial producer prices rose by 0.1% in the
euro area compared with June, but they were 2.8% lower
than in July 2015.
Brent crude oil prices have been very volatile over the
past months. After having lost 15% in July and
recovering to their June levels by the end of August, they
have started falling again in September. On 6 September,
Brent crude traded at 47.28 USD/bbl. (corresponding to
42.37 EUR/bbl.). At about 50 USD/bbl the price of oil
has almost doubled since mid-January.
At its meeting on 26-27 July 2016, the FOMC decided
to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at
0.25% to 0.50%. The stance of monetary policy remains
accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement
in labour market conditions and a return to 2% inflation.
On 5 September, the US 3-month Libor rate stood at
0.833%.
7. Monetary and financial indicators
In mid-August the EUR/USD exchange rate
appreciated above 1.13 for the first time since the UK's
"leave" vote on 23 June. Before that, it fluctuated in a
narrow band between 1.10 and 1.13. In the beginning of
September, the EUR/USD exchange rate moved back
into that band and on 6 September it stood at 1.1159.
Money market interest rates have stabilised since July,
after declining following the latest cut in the ECB'S
deposit facility rate in March 2016. On 6 September, the
3-month EURIBOR was at -0.303%.
The Japanese yen continues to appreciate against major
currencies on the back of its safe haven status. On 6
September, the JPY/EUR foreign exchange reference
rate stood at 115.39.
At its meeting on 21 July 2016, the ECB Governing
Council decided to keep the key ECB interest rates
unchanged, i.e. the interest rates on the main refinancing
operations, the marginal lending facility and the deposit
facility will remain at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40%
respectively. Regarding non-standard monetary policy
measures, on 8 June the Eurosystem has started making
purchases under its corporate sector purchase
programme (CSPP). Moreover, since 22 June, it is
conducting its new series of targeted longer-term
refinancing operations.
Stock market indices in Europe sharply fell in the days
after the UK's "leave" vote, but have slowly recovered
since then. EuroStoxx 50 gained 14% since the end of
June and is back at pre-referendum levels. The Dow
Jones suffered from the UK's leave vote for only one
week and has been stable around its year high, which
was reached on 15 August, since mid-July. In Japan, the
Nikkei index reached its year low on 24 June and has
somewhat recovered since then. On 6 September, the
index noted 13% higher than the year low.
Benchmark sovereign bond yields in the euro area
have fallen to new lows in 2016, reflecting the search for
safe haven debt as global uncertainty increased, the
global growth outlook deteriorated, and expectations
3
KEY INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA
1. OUTPUT
GDP
0.7
Contributions to GDP growth
16Q2
qoq %
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
15Q1
15Q2
15Q3
15Q4
16Q1
16Q2
BE
0.5
DE
0.4
EE
--
IE
--
EL
0.2
ES
0.8
FR
0.0
IT
0.0
CY
--
LV
0.6
LT
0.2
LU
--
MT
--
NL
0.6
AT
0.1
PT
0.3
SI
0.5
SK
0.9
FI
--
EA
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
15Q1
yoy %
15Q3
15Q4
16Q1
16Q2
domestic demand
GDP growth (qoq %)
0.3
Industrial and services confidence
indicator
20
120
4
balance
balance
35
115
10
25
110
0
105
2
100
85
80
Employment (000)
75
-4
-5
-30
-15
-40
-25
-50
70
-6
5
-20
90
-2
15
-10
95
0
-35
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
65
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
GDP (lhs)
services confid. and long-term average (rhs)
GDP growth divergence, euro area
Jun-16
yoy %
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
industrial production
industrial confid. and long-term average (lhs)
economic sentiment (rhs)
Industrial production
15
15Q2
net exports
inventories
GDP and Economic Sentiment Indicator
6
pps. (qoq)
3-month moving average
BE
6.4
DE
0.7
6.5
EE
-3.6
6.0
IE
-2.0
5.5
EL
7.6
5.0
ES
0.3
4.5
FR
-1.3
IT
-1.0
4.0
CY
10.6
LV
7.9
LT
-1.4
LU
4.3
MT
-6.6
NL
0.0
AT
0.7
0.5
PT
1.3
0.0
SI
6.1
SK
2.2
FI
4.3
EA
0.4
pps.
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
standard deviation of qoq growth
standard deviation of yoy growth
4
KEY INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA
2. PRIVATE CONSUMPTION
Private consumption
0.7
qoq %
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
15Q1
15Q2
Household adjusted gross disposable income
16Q2
15Q3
15Q4
16Q1
16Q2
BE
0.3
DE
0.2
0.8
EE
--
0.7
IE
--
EL
-0.2
0.6
ES
0.7
FR
0.0
0.4
IT
0.1
0.3
CY
--
0.2
LV
1.1
LT
2.8
0.1
LU
---
NL
0.2
-0.2
AT
0.3
PT
0.1
SI
1.0
SK
--
Retail sales
14Q4
4
3
-0.2
-1.8
DE
1.6
EE
2.9
IE
2.7
EL
--
ES
2.8
1
FR
5.2
IT
--
CY
--
LV
1.3
-2
LT
6.1
-3
LU
12.2
MT
-2.6
NL
--
AT
1.1
PT
4.2
-1
-4
-5
-6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
3-month moving average
15Q2
15Q3
15Q4
16Q1
Consumer confidence and private consumption
BE
2
0
15Q1
wages (received)
gross operating surplus and mixed income
net property income and other current transfers
social benefits - taxes
gross disposable income (q-o-q%)
Jul-16
yoy %
retail sales
0.0
MT
EA
5
0.5
-0.1
FI
pps.
SI
3.5
SK
-0.6
FI
1.5
EA
3.0
5.0
yoy %
balance
10
5
4.0
0
3.0
-5
2.0
-10
1.0
-15
-20
0.0
-25
-1.0
-30
-2.0
-35
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
private consumption (lhs)
consumer confidence and long-term average (rhs)
Households: real disposable income and consumption
Households: actual saving rate and expected savings
yoy %
3.0
pps.
balance
5.0
4
2
2.0
4.0
0
-2
1.0
3.0
2.0
-4
-6
0.0
1.0
-8
-10
-1.0
-12
0.0
-14
-2.0
-1.0
-16
-3.0
-2.0
-18
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
-3.0
household saving rate - difference to the same quarter of the
previous year (lhs)
expected savings (over next 12 months) (rhs)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
real disposable income
private consumption
5
KEY INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA
3. INVESTMENT
Gross fixed capital formation
qoq %
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.1
-0.2
15Q2
15Q3
15Q4
16Q1
2.0
DE
-1.5
EE
--
IE
--
EL
1.0
ES
1.3
FR
-0.2
IT
-0.3
CY
--
LV
-8.4
LT
10.9
LU
--
MT
--
NL
2.5
AT
1.3
PT
-0.1
0.0
SI
2.6
16Q2
SK
--
FI
--
0.0
15Q1
Gross fixed capital formation and corporate loans
16Q2
BE
EA
yoy %
15
5
10
0
5
-5
0
-10
-15
-5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
gross fixed capital formation (lhs)
loans to non-financial corporations (rhs)
0.0
Equipment and construction investment
12
yoy %
10
Equipment investment and capacity utilisation
yoy %
level (%)
yoy %
12
86
8
8
84
4
4
82
0
0
80
-4
-4
78
-8
-8
76
-12
-12
74
-16
-16
72
-20
-20
70
-24
-24
equipment investment
equipment investment (lhs)
construction investment
capacity utilisation in manufacturing (rhs)
Equipment investment and production expectations
12
yoy %
68
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
balance
Gross fixed capital formation and profit share
25
24
% of GDP
% of GDP
43
20
8
23
15
4
10
0
22
5
0
-4
42
21
-5
-8
20
-10
-12
-15
-16
-25
-20
41
19
-20
18
-30
-24
-35
17
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
40
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
equipment investment (lhs)
production expectations in manufacturing (rhs)
gross fixed capital formation (nominal) (lhs)
profit share (nominal) (rhs)
6
KEY INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA
4. LABOUR MARKET
Employment
0.5
qoq %
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
14Q4
15Q1
15Q2
15Q3
15Q4
16Q1
0.2
DE
0.3
3.0
EE
0.5
2.5
12
IE
0.7
EL
-0.1
2.0
8
ES
0.8
FR
0.3
1.0
IT
0.4
0.5
CY
--
LV
-0.1
LT
1.3
-0.5
LU
0.8
-1.0
MT
0.6
NL
--
AT
0.3
PT
0.0
SI
0.6
SK
0.6
FI
0.3
EA
0.3
Actual and structural unemployment rate
12.5
Employment and employment expectations
16Q1
BE
% of labour force
12.0
11.5
-4
-8
-12
-16
-2.0
-20
-2.5
-24
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
employment (lhs)
employment expectations (whole economy) (rhs)
Unemployment rate and unemployment expectations
Jul-16
BE
8.3
DE
4.2
EE
--
IE
8.3
12.5
% of labour force
balance
12.0
11.5
--
11.0
10.5
FR
10.3
10.5
10.0
IT
11.4
CY
11.6
10.0
LV
9.5
9.5
9.0
LT
8.8
9.0
8.5
LU
6.2
8.5
MT
3.9
NL
6.0
8.0
7.5
AT
6.0
7.5
7.0
PT
11.1
7.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
SI
7.9
actual unemployment rate
structural unemployment rate
SK
9.7
FI
9.1
EA
10.1
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
unemployment rate (lhs)
consumer unemployment expectations (rhs)
Compensation per head and negotiated wages (nominal)
4.0
0
-1.5
19.6
8.0
16
4
0.0
ES
9.5
balance
1.5
EL
11.0
yoy %
Labour costs in the private business sector (nominal)
yoy %
5.0
yoy %
4.5
3.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
1.5
2.0
1.0
1.5
0.5
0.0
1.0
-0.5
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
compensation per employee
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
total
negotiated wages
7
wage costs
non-wage costs
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
KEY INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA
5. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Exports and imports of goods and services
3.0
2.5
Exports and export order books
qoq %
18
2.5
2.4
balance
yoy %
10
14
0
10
2.0
-10
6
1.5
1.2
1.4
1.2
-30
-2
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.4
-50
-10
0.0
-60
-14
-0.1
-18
-0.5
15Q1
15Q2
15Q3
15Q4
exports
16Q1
-70
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
16Q2
exports of goods and services (lhs)
export order books and long-term average (rhs)
imports
World trade
Extra euro-area trade balance
bn EUR
yoy %
24
20
20
16
12
16
8
12
4
8
0
4
-4
0
-8
-4
-12
-8
-16
-12
-20
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
world trade (goods)
extra-euro area trade balance
3-month moving average
Extra- and intra-euro-area trade
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-40
-6
0.0
24
-20
2
1.1
3-month moving average
Current-account balance
yoy % (of nominal values)
40
bn EUR
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
extra-euro-area exports
extra-euro-area imports
current account balance
intra-euro-area-trade
8
3-month moving average
KEY INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA
6. PRICES
Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP)
yoy %
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
HICP headline and core inflation
Jul-16
BE
2.0
DE
0.4
EE
0.8
IE
0.1
EL
0.2
ES
-0.7
FR
0.4
IT
2.3
DE
1.2
EE
1.5
IE
1.1
EL
0.8
ES
0.6
2.5
FR
0.5
-0.2
2.0
IT
0.6
CY
-0.4
1.5
CY
-1.0
LV
0.1
LV
1.7
LT
0.0
LT
1.9
LU
-0.4
LU
1.2
MT
0.9
0.0
MT
1.2
NL
-0.6
-0.5
NL
0.1
AT
0.6
1.2
PT
0.7
-1.0
AT
PT
0.9
SI
-0.1
SI
0.9
SK
0.2
HICP
min HICP
SK
-0.9
max HICP
HICP flash
FI
0.5
EA
0.2
4.5
yoy %
4.0
3.5
3.0
1.0
0.5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
HICP
Core inflation (all items excl. energy and unproc. food)
Core inflation flash
Breakdown of core inflation
FI
1.0
EA
0.8
Energy and unprocessed food
yoy %
8
Jul-16
BE
20
7
16
6
12
5
8
4
4
3
0
2
-4
1
-8
0
-12
yoy%
-16
-1
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
non-energy industrial goods
services
processed food
energy
Domestic producer prices and import prices
20
unprocessed food
Oil prices
yoy %
150
level
140
15
130
120
10
110
5
100
90
0
80
70
-5
60
-10
50
40
-15
30
-20
20
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
domestic producer prices
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
oil prices and 3-month ma (USD/bl.)
import prices
oil prices and 3-month ma (EUR/bl.)
9
15
16
KEY INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA
7. MONETARY AND FINANCIAL INDICATORS
Nominal interest rates
6.0
Loans to private sector and money supply
% p.a.
14
5.5
yoy %
12
5.0
10
4.5
4.0
8
3.5
3.0
6
2.5
4
2.0
1.5
2
1.0
0
0.5
-2
0.0
-0.5
-4
05
06
07
08
09
10
repo rate
11
12
13
14
short-term
15
16
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
loans to private sector
long-term
Real interest rates
M3 (centred ma)
Euro vis-à-vis US dollar and JP yen
level
% p.a.
level
5.0
1.8
180
4.0
1.7
170
3.0
1.6
2.0
1.5
1.0
1.4
0.0
1.3
-1.0
1.2
-2.0
1.1
-3.0
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
1.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
90
05
06
07
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
EUR/USD and 30-day ma (lhs)
EUR/JPY and 30-day ma (rhs)
long term (10-year yield government bonds)
short term (3-months EURIBOR)
Stock market indices
220
08
Nominal effective exchange rates
index, 01.01.1999=100
140
200
index, 2005=100
130
180
120
160
140
110
120
100
100
80
90
60
40
05
06
07
08
Eurostoxx
09
10
11
12
13
Dow Jones
14
15
80
16
05
Nikkei
06
07
08
Euro area
10
09
10
11
12
13
United States
14
15
16
Japan
KEY INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA
8. PUBLIC FINANCES
tax burden
General government balance
0
% of GDP
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
General government expenditure and receipts
2015
BE
-2.6
DE
0.7
EE
0.4
IE
-2.3
EL
-7.2
ES
-5.1
FR
-3.5
IT
-2.6
CY
-1.0
LV
-1.3
LT
-0.2
LU
1.2
MT
-1.5
NL
-1.8
AT
-1.2
PT
-4.4
SI
-2.9
SK
44.6
DE
38.5
EE
33.4
IE
28.4
EL
36.3
ES
33.9
FR
45.9
IT
43.2
CY
33.1
LV
32.2
LT
25.6
LU
37.1
MT
33.5
NL
37.2
AT
43.9
PT
34.4
SI
36.7
-3.0
SK
31.9
FI
-2.7
FI
44.5
EA
-2.1
EA
40.3
Primary balance
53
51
47
45
Receipts
43
41
37
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Cyclically adjusted balance
2015
DE
2.3
-0.5
EE
0.5
-1.0
IE
0.8
EL
-3.4
ES
-2.0
FR
-1.5
IT
1.6
CY
1.8
LV
0.1
LT
1.3
LU
1.6
MT
1.1
-3
NL
-0.6
AT
1.2
-4
PT
0.2
SI
0.0
SK
-1.2
FI
EA
2
1
0
-1
-2
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Cyclically adjusted primary balance
2
% of GDP
1
0
-1
-2
-3
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Tax burden
39
0.3
% of GDP
Expenditures
49
BE
3
2015
BE
% of GDP
% of GDP
2015
BE
-2.2
DE
0.9
EE
0.3
IE
-3.2
-1.5
EL
-3.5
-2.0
ES
-3.1
FR
-2.4
-2.5
IT
-1.1
-3.0
CY
0.9
LV
-1.9
-3.5
LT
-0.3
LU
1.7
MT
-2.1
NL
-0.9
AT
-0.6
PT
-3.2
SI
-2.7
SK
-2.6
-1.5
FI
-1.4
0.3
EA
-4.0
-4.5
-5.0
-5.5
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
General government debt
2015
-1.2
2015
BE
0.7
DE
2.4
EE
0.4
EE
9.7
IE
0.0
IE
93.8
EL
0.3
EL
176.9
ES
0.0
ES
99.2
FR
-0.4
IT
3.1
95
% of GDP
90
85
BE
106.0
DE
71.2
FR
95.8
IT
132.7
CY
108.9
LV
36.4
LT
42.7
LU
21.4
CY
3.7
LV
-0.6
LT
1.3
LU
2.1
MT
0.4
MT
63.9
NL
0.3
NL
65.1
AT
1.8
PT
1.3
SI
0.2
SK
FI
-0.8
-0.2
EA
1.3
80
75
70
65
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
* Figures are from the Commission's spring 2016 forecast
11
AT
86.2
PT
129.0
SI
83.2
SK
FI
52.9
63.1
EA
92.9
KEY INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA
Euro area
Indicator
Sentiment Indicator
Industrial confidence
indicator
Services confidence
indicator
Industrial production
Gross domestic product
Labour productivity
GDP divergence
Consumer confidence
indicator
Retail confidence indicator
Private consumption
Retail sales
Capacity utilisation
Production expectations
Gross fixed capital
formation
Equipment investment
Construction investment
Change in stocks
Profit share
Indicators as from 2011 refer to Belgium (BE), Germany (DE), Estonia (EE), Ireland (IE),
Greece (GR), Spain (ES), France (FR), Italy (IT), Cyprus (CY), Latvia (LV), Lithuania (LT),
Luxembourg (LU), Malta (MT), the Netherlands (NL), Austria (AT), Portugal (PT),
Slovenia (SI), Slovakia (SK) and Finland (FI).
Source
Note
1. Output
The economic sentiment indicator is the weighted average (of the industrial confidence
indicator (40%), the services confidence indicator (30%), the consumer confidence
indicator (20%), the construction confidence indicator (5%) and the retail trade
confidence indicator (5%)). Data are seasonally adjusted.
The industrial confidence indicator is the arithmetic average of the balances (%)
referring to the questions on production expectations, order books and stocks (the
latter with inverted sign) from the survey of manufacturing industry. The long-term
average refers to the period as from publishing of the indicator up to now. Data are
seasonally adjusted.
The services confidence indicator is the arithmetic average of the balances (%) referring
to the questions on business situation and recent and expected evolution of demand
from the survey of services. The long-term average refers to the period as from
publishing of the indicator up to now. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Monthly Industry Production Index (2010=100), NACE Rev.2, Total industry
(excluding construction). Mom% and qoq% ch. are seasonally and working day
adjusted, yoy% ch. are working-day adjusted.
Real gross domestic product at constant market prices (chain-linked volumes (2010),
ESA 2010), EUR. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.
Labour productivity defined as the difference between GDP growth and employment
growth.
Standard deviation of GDP growth rates of the euro-area Member States.
2. Private consumption
The consumer confidence indicator is the arithmetic average of the balances (%)
referring to the questions on the financial situation of households, general economic
situation, unemployment expectations (with inverted sign) and savings; all over next 12
months. The long-term average refers to the period as from publishing of the indicator
up to now. Data are seasonally adjusted.
The retail confidence indicator is the arithmetic average of the balances (%) referring to
the questions on the present and the future business situation and the volume of stocks
(with inverted sign). The long-term average refers to the period from publishing of the
indicator up to now. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Real household & NPISH final consumption expenditure at constant market prices
(chain-linked volumes (2010), ESA 2010), EUR. Data are seasonally and working-day
adjusted.
Retail trade (NACE Rev.2 G47) excluding motor vehicles, motorcycles; Deflated
turnover, mom% ch. and qoq% ch. are seasonally adjusted, yoy% ch. are working-day
adjusted.
3. Investment
In percent of full capacity in the manufacturing sector. Data are seasonally adjusted
(collected in January, April, July and October).
Production expectations in manufacturing sector. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Real gross fixed capital formation at constant market prices (chain-linked volumes
(2010), ESA 2010), EUR. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.
Gross fixed capital formation at constant market prices (chain-linked volumes,
reference year (2010), ESA 2010), EUR, real machinery and equipment and weapons
systems. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.
Gross fixed capital formation at constant market prices (chain-linked volumes,
reference year (2010), ESA 2010), EUR, dwellings and other buildings and structures.
Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.
Changes in inventories and acquisitions less disposals of valuables (at prices of previous
year).
Ratio of nominal gross operating surplus and gross mixed income to nominal GDP
12
DG
ECFIN
DG
ECFIN
DG
ECFIN
Eurostat
Eurostat
Eurostat
Eurostat
DG
ECFIN
DG
ECFIN
Eurostat
Eurostat
DG
ECFIN
DG
ECFIN
Eurostat
Eurostat
Eurostat
Eurostat
Eurostat
KEY INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA
Employment expectations
(manufacturing)
Employment expectations
(services)
Employment expectations
(whole economy)
Employment
Compensation of employees per
head
Unemployment expectations
Unemployment rate
Structural unemployment rate
Total labour costs
Wage costs
Non-wage costs
Labour productivity
World trade
Export order books
Extra-euro area exports
Extra-euro area imports
Extra-euro area trade balance
Intra-euro area trade
Current-account balance
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
4. Labour market
Managers' employment expectations over the next three months in the
manufacturing sector. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Managers' employment expectations over the next three months in the services
sector. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Weighted average of managers' employment expectations over the next three
months in the manufacturing (19%), services (65%), construction (6%) and retail
sectors (10%). Weights in brackets according to value-added share on GDP of the
respective sector. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Total domestic employment (number of persons). Data are seasonally adjusted for
Ireland, Greece, France, Cyprus, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal and Slovakia, and
seasonally and working day adjusted data for the remaining Member States.
Nominal compensation of employees divided by the number of employees. Data
are seasonally and working-day adjusted.
Consumers' unemployment expectations over the next twelve months. Data are
seasonally adjusted.
Harmonised unemployment rate (in percent of labour force), ILO definition. Data
are seasonally adjusted.
Non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal wage- and non-wage costs less subsidies in the private business sector.
Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.
Nominal wage and salary costs include direct remuneration, bonuses, and
allowances, payments to employees saving schemes, payments for days not worked
and remuneration in kind. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.
Nominal non-wage costs include the employers’ social contributions plus
employment taxes less subsidies. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.
Ratio between GDP and employment. Data are seasonally and working-day
adjusted.
5. International transactions
Volume, 2005=100, seasonally adjusted
Managers' export order expectations in the manufacturing sector. Data are
seasonally adjusted.
Nominal extra-euro area exports of goods, fob. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal extra-euro area imports of goods, cif. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Difference between extra-euro area exports and extra-euro area imports. Data are
seasonally adjusted.
Nominal intra-euro area trade in goods, fob. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Transactions in goods and services plus income and current transfers between
residents and non- residents of the euro area. Data are seasonally and working-day
adjusted.
Exports of goods and services at constant market prices (chain-linked volumes,
reference year 2010), EUR. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.
Imports of goods and services at constant market prices (chain-linked volumes,
reference year 2010), EUR. Data are seasonally and working-day adjusted.
Nominal transactions/positions in assets abroad by euro-area residents less
nominal transactions/positions in euro-area assets by non-residents. To be
regarded as a direct investment, ownership in an enterprise must be equivalent to
more than 10% of the ordinary shares or voting power.
Nominal transactions/positions in securities (including equities) abroad by euroarea residents less nominal transactions/positions in euro-area securities (including
equities) by non-residents. To be regarded as a portfolio investment, ownership in
an enterprise must be equivalent to less than 10% of the ordinary shares or voting
power.
13
DG
ECFIN
DG
ECFIN
DG
ECFIN
Eurostat
DG
ECFIN
DG
ECFIN
Eurostat
DG
ECFIN
Eurostat
Eurostat
Eurostat
DG
ECFIN
CPB
DG
ECFIN
Eurostat
Eurostat
Eurostat
Eurostat
ECB
Eurostat
Eurostat
ECB
ECB
KEY INDICATORS FOR THE EURO AREA
Import prices
Oil prices
Non-energy commodity prices
6. Prices
Harmonised index of consumer prices (index 2015=100)
HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food (index 2015=100)
Domestic producer price index, total industry excluding construction (index
2010=100)
Managers' selling-price expectations in the manufacturing sector. Data are
seasonally adjusted.
Import price index, manufacturing (index 2010=100)
Price of north sea Brent in USD/barrel and EUR/barrel
Market price for non-fuel commodities in EUR terms (index 2010=100)
Nominal interest rate (3-month)
7. Monetary and financial indicators
3-month EURIBOR interbank rate (360 days)
HICP
Core HICP
Producer prices
Selling price expectation
Nominal interest rate (10-year)
10-year interest rate on government bonds for euro area (based upon the 10-year
German government bond)
ECB repo rate
Minimum bid rate of main refinancing operations, end of period.
Money demand (M3)
Real long-term interest rates
Monetary aggregate including currency in circulation (banknotes and coins),
operational deposits in central bank, money in current accounts, saving accounts,
money market deposits, certificates of deposit, all other deposits and repurchase
agreements. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Loans by MFI (monetary and financial institutions) to euro area residents (excl
government). Data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal interest rate (10-year) deflated by HICP index
Real short-term interest rates
Nominal interest rate (3-month) deflated by HICP index
Stock markets
Eurostoxx50, Dow Jones and Nikkei indices (1.1.1999=100)
Exchange rates
Nominal effective exchange rate
EUR/USD and EUR/JPY reference rates
Graph – Monthly Nominal Effective Exch. Rates vs. rest of IC36 (index 2005 =
100)
Table - ECB Nominal effective exch. rate, based on weighted averages of bilateral
euro exchange rates (EA19) against the currencies of the EER-18 group.
8. Public finance
Net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) of general government
Loans to private sector
General government balance
Primary government balance
Cyclically adjusted balance
Cyclically adjusted primary
balance
General government
expenditures and receipts
General government debt
Net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) of general government minus interest
payment
Net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) of general government corrected for the
influence of the business cycle
Primary government balance corrected for the influence of the business cycle
Nominal expenditures and receipts; tax burden includes taxes on production and
imports (incl. taxed paid to EU), current taxes on income and wealth (direct taxes)
and actual social contributions
Cumulative sum of net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) positions of general
government
14
Eurostat
Eurostat
Eurostat
DG
ECFIN
Eurostat
ICE
HWWI
ECB/
Global
Insight
ECB/
Global
Insight
ECB/
Global
Insight
ECB
ECB
DG
ECFIN
DG
ECFIN
Global
Insight
ECB
DG
ECFIN/
ECB
DG
ECFIN
DG
ECFIN
DG
ECFIN
DG
ECFIN
DG
ECFIN
DG
ECFIN
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