Perspectives on Global Competitiveness
in Solar Energy
at the U.S Department of Energy
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Minimum Take-Aways from This Talk
 Q: How do you pronounce “photovoltaic”?
 A:
fō-tō-vōlt-A-ic
 Q: Why is Germany leading the world in solar
installations?
 A: Stable policy is probably the leading reason. It’s
certainly not because they have lots of sunshine…
 Q: How is the U.S. doing in photovoltaic innovation?
 A: NUMBER ONE, BABY
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Outline
 A Brief Word on Sunshine
 Photovoltaic Basics
 Policies to Encourage Photovoltaic
Deployment
 Policies to Encourage Photovoltaic
Technology Innovation
 Conclusions
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4
Solar Resources
Spain
kWh /
/ Year
m2
Source: NREL (2011)
Germany
5
Photovoltaics = PV
Solar Panel = PV Module
Modules are made of solar cells
Light shines onto photovoltaic material
to generate electricity
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Energy Units
Nellis Air Force Base
(Nevada):
Large PV installation
in the United States
– 14 MegaWatts (MW)
– 30 million kilowatthours (kWh) per year
– Supplies base with
>25 % of the total
power used by the
base population
(12,000 people)
Watt = unit of power (30 W to power a CFL light bulb)
KiloWatt = 1000 Watts (33 light bulbs)
MegaWatt = 1,000,000 Watts; 1000 kiloWatts (33,333
light bulbs)
KiloWatt-hour = unit of energy
Using a 30 watt light bulb for one thousand hours
consumes 30 kilowatt hours of electricity
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Types of Photovoltaics
Concentrating Photovoltaics
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Roof Mounted PV
9
Building Integrated PV
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Ground mounted PV:
Large utility installations
 Sarnia,
Ontario,
Canada
 97 MW
 Largest in the
world
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Large utility installations: USA
 Copper
Mountain, NV
 48 MW
 Largest in US
 8th largest in
the world
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Residential PV Installed Price (2010)
$8
Installed Price ($/W)
$ / WattDC
$6.50
Balance of System
Module
$6
$4
$4.58
$3.83
$2.11
$2
$1.92
$1.72
$0
Source: Bloomberg NEF (2010), California Solar Initiative, Oanda (2010)
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Current Prices of Rooftop PV in the US
Typical Installation Details:
• 4kW system size offsets about
50% of a house’s energy needs
• 12-19% efficient modules
 12-25 Panels
• Module price = $3/W
• Install price of $7/W  $28,000
• 20-30 year lifetime warranties
(inverters 5-15 years)
Initial Installed Price
$28,000
State Subsidy ($1.10/W)
$4,400
Federal Tax Credit (30%
after State rebates)
$7,080
Final System Price
$16,520
Costs of a PV system vary because of
differences in labor, hardware type,
available incentives, type of mounting,
permitting,etc.
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What’s in the policy toolbox?
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Tools for Deployment





Feed-in Tariff
Renewable Portfolio Standard
Investment Tax Credit
Loans, Loan Guarantees, Lower Cost Capital
Modified Depreciation Tools
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U.S. & German Solar Incentives
 30% Investment Tax Credit
 National Feed-in Tariff
Grant-in-Lieu of Tax Credit (1603)
R&D Funding
Manufacturing Tax Credit (48C)
Loan Guarantees
Accelerated Depreciation & Bonus
Depreciation
 State, Local, & Utility Incentives
 State Renewable Portfolio Standards










R&D Funding
Accelerated Depreciation
Access to Less Costly Capital
80% clean electricity by 2050
Tax Credits
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Peaks in Installations Precede
German Incentive Feed In Tariff Cuts
2.1 GW
June 2010
PV Registrations (MW)
2,000
1.4 GW
Dec 2009
1.2 GW
Dec 2010
1,000
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
January 2009
Source: Bundesnetzagentur (2011)
December 2010
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2008-2013 PV Demand
• Significant growth is predicted in most major markets but
Germany is expected to remain the leader through 2012

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U.S. is expected to be one of the fastest growing major PV markets over the next few years
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Annual PV Demand (GWDC)
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2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
7
6
25
20
5
15
4
3
10
2
5
1
0
U.S.
Germany
Spain
Italy
•Sources: Barclays Capital (1/12/11 & 2/14/11), Citigroup Global Markets (2/14/11), Cowen & Co.
(12/2/10 & 3/10/11), Goldman Sachs Group (1/23/11), Jefferies & Co. (2/2011), J.P. Morgan Securities
LLC (3/9/10 & 1/11/11), Lazard Capital Markets (2/11/11), Piper Jaffray (1/2011), Stifel, Nicolaus & Co.
(1/13/11), UBS Securities, LLC (3/8/11), Wedbush Securities (2/8/11), Wells Fargo Securities (5/4/10 &
France
Japan
China
ROW
12/7/10)
•Note: Not all sources utilized provide projections for each year shown. The number of projections for
each year (i.e. N) are: 2008: 11, 2009: 12, 2010E: 12, 2011E: 12, 2012E: 10, 2013E: 5.
0
Global
Canada, Czech
Republic, India,
South Korea, et. al.
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Tools for Technology
 R&D Funding
 R&D Tax Credit
 Manufacturing Tax Credit
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% of GDP
As % of GDP
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Per Capita
Series 1
$1.20
$1.10
$ / Capita
$0.90
$0.80
$0.40
$0.30
$0.00
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Apollo Mission of Our Times
“Moon Shot”
“We choose to go to the moon in this decade
and do the other things, not because they are
easy, but because they are hard….
“Because that challenge is one that we are
willing to accept, one we are unwilling to
postpone, and one which we intend to win….”
– September 12, 1962
SunShot
“We’re telling America’s scientists and
engineers that if they assemble teams of the
best minds in their fields, and focus on the
hardest problems in clean energy, we’ll fund
the Apollo projects of our time.”
--
President Obama, State of the Union 2011
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The DOE SunShot Initiative
 The DOE SunShot Initiative is a collaborative national
initiative to make solar energy technologies costcompetitive with other forms of energy by reducing
the cost of solar energy systems by about 75% before
2020.
 Reducing the total installed cost for utility-scale solar
electricity to roughly 6 cents per kilowatt hour
without subsidies will result in rapid, large-scale
adoption of solar electricity across the United States.
 Reaching this goal will re-establish American
technological leadership, improve the nation’s energy
security, and strengthen U.S. economic competitiveness
in the global clean energy race.
Through advanced solar technology development,
we are laying the groundwork for subsidy-free affordable solar energy
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SunShot PV Incubator R&D Program
Tier 1 (Prototype)
Tier 2 (Pilot Line)
Objective: Foster domestic innovation & growth
Accelerate transition of a
Proof of Concept to
Prototype
Scale-up Prototype to Pilot
Scale Production
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24 Companies
$59M Federal R&D
$1.3B Private Capital
>1200 Jobs
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Global Solar Investment
• Of the $35.8 billion in solar debt transactions during mid 2010, the
China Development Bank accounted for $30.4 billion
•
IPO conditions remain poor (although they have slightly recovered from their 2009 low)
Billions Nominal $
$60
Solar M&A
$50
Total Investment Increase
153% CAGR 2004-2010
125% CAGR 2004-2009
347% CAGR 2009-2010
Solar VC & PE
$40
Solar Debt
$30
Solar Public Equity
$20
$10
$0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Q1'09
Q2'09
Q3'09
Q4'09
Q1'10
Q2'10
Q3'10
Q4'10 Q1'11**
•*Excluding government R&D and project finance investments but includes finalized U.S. DOE Loan Guarantees & loans by the China Development Bank.
•**Data through 3/16/11 only.
Sources: Bloomberg NEF (12/08, 3/6/09, 4/9/10, 4/16/10, 11/8/10, & 3/16/11)
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Global Solar Venture Capital & Private Equity
Investment by Technology
• U.S. continues its leadership in both its size & diversity of VC & PE investment
$2.5
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
Thin Film PV
Solar Heating & Cooling
Project Developer
Polysilicon
Other
Next Generation PV
Mounting and Tracking
Manufacturing Equipment
Inverters
CSP
Crystalline Silicon PV
CPV & Multijunction
Transactions
90
80
70
60
50
40
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Number of Transactions
VC & PE Investments (Billions Nominal $)
$3.0
20
$0.5
10
$0.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Asia (includes India & Austrialia)
Europe (includes Africa & and middle east)
U.S. (includes North & South America)
(Includes India & Australia)
(Includes Africa & Middle East)
(Includes North & South America)
Asia
Note: Number of Transactions includes transactions without a disclosed value.
Europe
0
U.S.
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Source: Bloomberg NEF (2/15/11)
Conclusions
 Policy has a significant role in making photovoltaics affordable for
average Americans: a combination of incentives to encourage
deployment and policies to encourage technological innovation are
currently needed.
 Germany has had significant successes in installing photovoltaics
through their deployment policies; other policies, like what has been
used in the US, can also be successful and has poised the US to be
market growth leader in years to come.
 Through technological advances and efficiencies that will come
through scale up, affordable photovoltaic generated electricity will
be possible in most regions of the US by the end of the decade.
 There is a serious concern whether the low-cost photovoltaics
hardware coming from China (primarily) will make it difficult for
new technologies to take root and grow into competitive
companies.
 A large portion of the innovation in photovoltaics is happening in
the US, positioning our country to potentially take advantage of US
market growth and growth in other world markets.

Photovoltaic = fō-tō-vōlt-A-ic
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Thank You
Contact Information:
Dr. Marie Mapes
Photovoltaic Technology Manager
U.S. Department of Energy
Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy
Solar Energy Technologies Program
Email: marie.mapes@ee.doe.gov
Phone: 202-586-3765
On the web: http://www.solar.energy.gov
DOE SunShot Initiative
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/sunshot/
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