REAL ESTATE DATATREND
Private Residential Market
Keener Sense of Real Estate
Occupancy rates expected to worsen with more completions
26 April 2016
RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
Celine Chan
Research Analyst
E-mail: research@orangetee.com
Website: www.orangetee.com
Moving in sync, we see overall rents also continue to register
significant falls, -1.3% q-o-q and -4.2% y-o-y.
Follow us on
Softer spots in the private residential market
The decline in prices can be mostly attributed to the nonlanded home prices, in particular the Outside of Central
Region (OCR) and overall landed prices islandwide. OCR
continues to be place under the spotlight with its supply glut
and weak rental performance. About 56% of total incoming
supply will be completing in OCR, 29% in Rest of Central
Region (RCR) and 15% in Core Central Region (CCR).
Atypical of the non-landed private residential supply plague,
landed home prices remained under pressure due to tighter
financing conditions and capped demand due to cooling
measures.
Bogged down by stock market turbulence in Jan
Overall volumes fell in 1Q16, even with strong sales from
Cairnhill Nine and the Wisteria. The two newly launched
projects brought in a combined sale volume of 293 units,
representing 20.6% of the total primary sales for 1Q16.
Decline in volume could be due to turbulence in the stock
market at the beginning of the year. It is customary for
uncertainties arising from turbulence in the stock market to
instigate a mood of caution and buyers generally stayed away
from the market.
Exhibit 1: Key indicators
Occupancy to dip below 90% mark
1Q16 saw a small improvement in the occupancy rate of 0.6
percentage point, from 91.9% in 4Q15 to 92.5% in 1Q16. This
can be attributed to a smaller number of completions in 1Q16,
2,855 private residential units were completed in 1Q16 as
compared to 5,299 private residential units in 4Q15. As at
1Q16, another 20,516 private residential units are expected
to be completed in 2016. So going forward, we may actually
see occupancy rates dip below the 90% mark by the end of the
year and should it materialise, it’ll be the lowest occupancy
rate since 3Q98 (90.3%).
Going forward, we expect new sales volumes to pick up in
2Q16, with the anticipated launches of a few projects – GEM
Residences, Stars of Kovan and Sturdee Residences.
See terms of use on last page.
4Q15
1Q16
1.8
1.8
Overall property price index
141.6
140.6
Q-o-q change (%)
-0.5
-0.7
108.9
107.5
Q-o-q change (%)
-1.3
-1.3
Overall occupancy (%)
91.9
92.5
Q-o-q change (%age points)
-0.3
0.6
Indicators
Economy (year on year growth, %)
GDP at 2010 prices
Property Market Indicators
Overall rental index(non-landed)
Note: 1Q16 GDP figures are advance estimates.
Source: URA, MTI, OrangeTee Research
Page 1 | 5
| Singapore | Residential |
Since 3Q13 both prices and rents have fallen by 9.1%
Overall residential prices saw a -0.7% q-o-q and -3.4% y-o-y
declines and this marks the 10th consecutive quarter the
private property price index suffered a decline. The private
residential market continues to be weighed down by familiar
headwinds, such as soft rental, cooling measures and
uncertainties in the economy.
| Singapore | Residential |
Exhibit 2: Private Residential Property Price Index (RPPI)
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 3: Non-landed RPPI, breakdown by region
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 4: Private residential units sold in primary and secondary market
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
See terms of use on last page.
Page 2 | 5
| Singapore | Residential |
Exhibit 5: Private Residential Property Sales(based on caveats), breakdown by
residential status
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 6: Private Residential Property Rental Index, breakdown by region
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 7: Occupancy rate, island wide (%)
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
See terms of use on last page.
Page 3 | 5
| Singapore | Residential |
Exhibit 8: Expected completions
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 9: Expected completions, by market segments
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 10: Private residential units unsold
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
See terms of use on last page.
Page 4 | 5
Planning Area
Existing
Stock
Incoming
Supply
Central
Existing Incoming Planning
Planning Area Stock
Supply Area
East
Bukit Merah
Bishan
Bukit Timah
8,642
5,621
18,590
3,455 Bedok
1,467 Pasir Ris
932 Tampines
Downtown Core
Geylang
4,576
13,550
3,399 West
2,801 Bukit Batok
Kallang
Marine Parade
Museum
Newton
Novena
Outram
Orchard
Queenstown
Rochor
River Valley
Singapore River
Tanglin
Toa Payoh
13,166
10,043
935
7,307
14,056
1,399
1,948
7,408
3,297
9,710
4,747
12,786
5,266
1,161
962
135
538
907
56
499
1,308
839
942
627
2,989
Existing Incoming
Stock
Supply
North East
27,035
11,130
7,411
2,396 Ang Mo Kio
3,524 Hougang
1,853 Punggol
4,383
9,952
1,492
912
3,482
2,140
10,164
Sengkang
1,181 Serangoon
3,448
7,640
3,866
1,861
1,383
2,422
3,946
1,979
Bukit Panjang
5,176
Choa Chu Kang 3,657
Clementi
6,947
Jurong East
2,480
Jurong West
4,112
Note: Some planning areas
1,449 North
Sembawang
2,331 Woodlands
738 Yishun
1,406
have been ommitted
in this dataset
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 12: Occupancy rates, breakdown by region (%)
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
Page 5 | 5
Terms of Use: The reproduction or distribution of this publication without the express consent of the author is prohibited. This publication
is provided for general information only and should not be treated as an invitation or recommendation to buy or sell any spec ific property
or as sales material. Users of this report should consider this publication as one of the many factors in making their investment decision
and should seek specific investment advice. OrangeTee.com Pte Ltd and the authors of this publication shall not accept and hereby
disclaim all responsibilities and liability to all persons and entities for consequences arising out of any use of this publication.
| Singapore | Residential |
Exhibit 11: Private non-landed residential supply in the pipeline breakdown by planning areas as at 1Q16