Roadmapping an emerging industry with bibliometrics and
patent analysis: A case of OLED industry in China
Xin Li1, Yuan Zhou2, Lan Xue2, Lucheng Huang1
1
School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
2
School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
Abstract: In recent years, emerging technologies have been attracting increasing attention
worldwide, due to the emergence and development of these emerging technologies may have a
profound influence on the global industrial and economic structure. How to identify and grasp the
opportunity to develop emerging technologies is an important issue for companies and
governments, and how to strategize and plan the growth of the emerging technologies-based
industry is a strategic concern for all nations to develop their emerging industries, which will
ultimately contribute to their international competitiveness and sustainable development when
facing the wave of revolutionary industrial changes.
In response to these questions, therefore, this paper attempts to develop a framework for
identifying the opportunity to develop emerging technologies, and strategizing and planning the
future development of these emerging technologies-based industry in emerging countries like
China, based on an understanding of the existing science and technology trajectory and the
identification of the future macro-level trends in the policy, market, and industry dynamics. The
framework is conducted by integrating bibliometrics, patent analysis, and technology
roadmapping. In the framework, bibliometrics is applied to analyze the existing science research
position of the emerging technologies, patent analysis is used to analyze the technology
application position of the emerging technologies, and both of these two methods are applied to
identify the national competitive advantage in these science and technology domains. The
adoption of the bibliometric method and patent analysis, which use quantitative literature data and
patent data to visualize the science and technology status, can significantly reduce the bias due to
using experts’ opinions that are based on intuitive knowledge when planning and roadmapping the
future development of emerging technologies from science to market activities. Besides, the
leading experts who are identified by bibliometrics and patent analysis can be asked to participate
in the technology roadmapping workshops and ensuing roadmap development.
The Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED) industry in China is selected as a case study. This
study will contribute to the roadmapping methodology, and will be of interest to OLED industry
researchers.
Keywords: Technology roadmapping; Bibliometrics; Patents analysis; Emerging technologies;
Organic Light Emitting Diode.
1. Introduction
In recent years, as science and technology continuously advance, emerging technologies are
blossoming. And emerging technologies have been attracting increasing attention worldwide, due
to the emergence and development of these emerging technologies may have a profound influence
on the global industrial and economic structure, leading to a new wave of industrial revolution [1].
In these circumstances, how to identify and grasp the opportunity to develop emerging
technologies is an important issue for companies and governments, and how to strategize and plan
the growth of the emerging technologies-based industry is a strategic concern for all nations to
develop their emerging industries, which will ultimately contribute to their international
competitiveness and sustainable development when facing the wave of revolutionary industrial
changes. And the new wave of industrial revolution brings an important “window of opportunity”
for emerging countries to catch up in the global innovation race [2].
Existing studies have explored various methodologies for mapping or forecasting the
trajectories of emerging technologies; however, few studies attempt to extend this study to an
industrial-level, which involves more complex macro-factors such as policy, market, industry
competitions and the dynamics in-between. Furthermore, there is limited research on emerging
industrial pathways that can bridge the unconnected front-end and back-end studies: analyzing the
past trajectories (front-end), and fore-sighting the future innovation pathways (back-end) – this
calls for a systematic approach that integrates these two components, which can reinforce each
other, for planning the development of new industries. Specifically, emerging countries have their
idiosyncrasies when strategizing the innovation pathways of emerging industries –rapid economic
growth and demand vs. vague global competitive position, limited innovation infrastructure,
low-cost alternative technologies – therefore the macro-level analysis is crucial to better plan the
future pathways.
In response to these questions and gaps, therefore, this paper attempts to develop a
framework for identifying the opportunity to develop emerging technologies, and strategizing and
planning the future development of these emerging technologies-based industry in emerging
countries like China, based on an understanding of the existing science and technology trajectory
and the identification of the future macro-level trends in the policy, market, and industry dynamics.
The framework is conducted by integrating bibliometrics, patent analysis, and technology
roadmapping (TRM). In the framework, bibliometrics is applied to analyze the existing science
research position of the emerging technologies, patent analysis is used to analyze the technology
application position of the emerging technologies, and both of these two methods are applied to
identify the leading experts, national competitive advantage in these science and technology
domains; technology roadmapping is utilized for strategizing and planning the future development
of the emerging technologies-based industry. The adoption of the bibliometric method and patent
analysis, which use quantitative literature data and patent data to visualize the science and
technology status, can significantly reduce the bias due to using experts’ opinions that are based
on intuitive knowledge when planning and roadmapping the future development of emerging
technologies from science to market activities. The leading experts who are identified by
bibliometrics and patent analysis can be asked to participate in the workshop and ensuing roadmap
development. This is of prime importance for constructing the roadmap of emerging
technologies-based industry. It takes the Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED) industry in China
as a case study, against the background of the rapid development of China’s OLED industry.
The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 presents the literature review. Section
3 provides the methodology. Section 4 analyzes the case study. Finally, section 5 concludes and
discusses the paper.
2. Literature review
2.1 TRM for emerging industry
The emergence of emerging industries is an important phenomenon that remains relatively
neglected by researchers [3]. McGahan et al. pointed out that, in the study of industrial life cycle,
current studies on industrial evolution mostly focus on the later stage, fewer studies on the earlier
stage, namely, the emergence of the industry [4]. Forbes and Kirsch pointed out that there are two
reasons: one is that emerging industry is hard to identify in the beginning, only when it has
developed to a certain scale can catch the attention of researchers; the other is that for lack of
historical data, it is hard for scholars to study it [3]. Therefore, advancing the study of emerging
industries will require researchers to develop new methodologies and theories, to make more
extensive use of qualitative and historical data [3].
TRM is a flexible method to strategize and planning the future development trend of
emerging technologies, which has been widely used within enterprises, industries and nations to
support strategic and long-term planning [5-7]. It is also an effective tool for mapping the
emergence of emerging industries, for it provides a structural framework for exploring into the
evolution of complex systems, enabling the evolution history and future development to be
displayed in the roadmap [8]. Therefore, it can improve our understanding of emerging industries’
dynamics and characteristics, provide insightful guidance on strategic decision-making and
corporate practice. TRM has been applied to map the mergence of China’s solar cell industry [9],
China’s wind energy equipment manufacturing industry [10], and the U.S. automotive industry
[11].
Although TRM has been applied in many areas, it also suffers from several shortcomings,
including the fact that, during the implementation process, what kind of experts should be invited
to participate in TRM workshop, which technological solutions should be selected and the current
situation usually depends on experts’ intuitive knowledge [2]. We believe that some of these
shortcomings of TRM might be assuaged by the use of bibliometrics and patents analysis in the
TRM process.
2.2 Biblimetrics and patents analysis for emerging technologies
Bibliometrics is the measurement of literature data to explore, organize and analyze large
amounts of historical data in order to help researchers to identify the “hidden patterns” that may
assist their decision-making process [12]. It is an effective method to detect the taxonomic
structure of a research domain [13-14] and analyze emerging technologies. By use of life cycle
method, Martino [15] divided the stage of innovation into five stages, namely, basic research,
applied research, development, application and social impacts. And each stage can be analyzed by
the relevant literature data: the basic research stage can be measured by science citation index
papers, the applied research stage can be measured by engineering index papers, the development
stage can be measured by patents data, the application stage can be measured by newspaper
abstracts daily, and social impact stage can be measured by business and popular press data. Based
on Martino’s research, some scholars make use of bibliometric methods to analyze the technology
life cycle position and forecast emerging technologies [2, 12].
Patent information contains enormous and rich technical items, and it is a useful indication
for the technological development strategies or global strategies of individual enterprises in
response to intensifying competition [16]. Patent analysis is an objective method to identify the
trends of technological development by analyzing patent information [17]. And it has been widely
applied by enterprises or governments to avoid unnecessary investment and gain the seeds for
technological development [18]. Many patent analysis methods have been developed [19-24].
Patent analysis has also been applied to forecasting emerging technologies [12, 17, 18, 25]. Patent
map is the visualized expression of the patent analysis results to identify current status of patent
development and understand patent information easily and effectively [17]. And it is produced by
gathering, processing, and analyzing patent documents of a target technology domain. One of
patent maps is ThemeScape map which can be created by Thomson innovation [26]. This paper
will apply ThemeScape map to mapping the development of the emerging technologies.
Some scholars point out that bibliometrics and patents analysis can be a key component for
constructing a reliable roadmap [2], and the combination of roadmapping with bibliometrics has to
be addressed well in advance of the implementation of a roadmapping process [2, 27]. Robinson et
al. present a framework with bibliometric analysis and workshops to forecast innovation pathways
for new and emerging science and technologies [28]. Li et al. propose a framework by combining
bibliometrics with TRM workshops to predict the future development of emerging technologies or
strategize and plan the future development of new technology-based industries [2].
In this paper, bibliometrics is applied to analyze the existing science research position of the
emerging technologies, patent analysis is used to analyze the technology application position of
the emerging technologies, and both of these two methods are applied to identify the leading
experts, national competitive advantage in these science and technology domains. The adoption of
the bibliometric method and patent analysis, which use quantitative literature data and patents data
to visualize the science and technology status, can significantly reduce the bias due to using
experts’ opinions that are based on intuitive knowledge when constructing the roadmap of
emerging technologies-based industry. The leading experts who are identified by bibliometrics and
patent analysis can be asked to participate in the workshop and ensuing roadmap development.
This is also of prime importance for constructing the roadmap of emerging technologies-based
industry.
3. Methodology
The industrial landscape is becoming increasingly complex and dynamic, with innovative
technologies stimulating the emergence of new applications, business models and industries [8].
The emergence of emerging industry has four paths, namely, (1) the industrialization of emerging
technologies; (2) the differentiation of original industry; (3) the development of one relevant
industry leading to the emergence of another industry; (4) industry integration. Among them, the
emerging industry coming from the industrialization of emerging technologies is named as
emerging technologies-based industry, or science and technology-based industry. Phaal et al. [8]
studied more than 25 science and technology-based industries’ historical evolution and pointed out
that the emergence of science and technology-based industry has undergone four stages, which are
science dominated emergence, technology dominated emergence, application dominated
emergence and market dominated emergence respectively. These findings provide theoretical
guidelines for studying the growth of emerging technologies from science to application and the
market.
In order to cope with the complexity and dynamicity of the growth of emerging technologies,
strategic roadmapping frameworks have been widely applied to strategize and plan the emergence
and development of those emerging technologies-based industry – at least 1,500 public domain
roadmaps have been developed during the last 15 years [29]. There are there are three essential
questions in the strategic roadmapping [5, 30, 31]: (1) Where are we now? (2) Where do we want
to go? (3) How can we get there?. As for asking these three questions to construct strategic
roadmapping, many existing TRMs are mostly reliant on experts’ opinions that are based on
intuitive knowledge. And in the TRM process, what kinds of experts should be invited to
participate in the workshop and ensuing roadmap development is also one of puzzle problems for
TRM organizers, which is the key issue to improve the reliability and effectiveness of the TRM.
Bibliometric method and patent analysis, which use quantitative literature data and patents data,
can analyze the research hot points, technology frontiers, technology opportunities, technology
development trend, and leading technology experts in the science and technology fields. And they
also can visualize the national competitive advantage in the science and technology domains. So
the analysis results of bibliometric method and patent analysis can provide references for experts
to make decisions, when they construct strategic roadmapping. And the leading technology experts
who are identified by bibliometrics and patent analysis can be asked to participate in the TRM
workshops and ensuing roadmap development. Therefore, the introduction of the bibliometric
method and patent analysis into the application of TRM can significantly reduce the bias due to
using experts’ opinions that are based on intuitive knowledge when constructing TRM, which can
in turn improve the reliability and validity of the TRM.
In the approaches or processes are employed to construct strategic roadmaps, bibliometrics,
patent analysis and the “fast-start TRM workshop” [2, 31-32] are three recognized ones. This
paper will develop a framework based on the combination of these three methods to strategize and
plan the future development of emerging technologies-based industries, when attempting to fully
utilize their advantages and make this framework more valid and reliable. In the framework,
bibliometrics and patent analysis for analyzing the existing position of science and technology,
and TRM workshops for strategizing the future development path from technology to application
and the market involving various stakeholders, including technological experts, industrial experts,
policy makers, and business managers. This framework tends to better address the emergence of
technology, application, market, industrial settings, and the dynamical relationships between them.
The analysis methods used in this paper and the industrial emergence stages are shown in Fig. 1.
And the framework for analyzing the future development of emerging technology-based industry
based on bibliometrics, patent analysis and TRM workshops is shown in Fig. 2.
Bibliometrics
Science
dominated emergence
Patents analysis
Technology
dominated emergence
TRM workshops
Application
dominated emergence
Market
dominated emergence
Fig.1. Analysis methods and industrial emergence stages
In response to the three questions of strategic roadmapping, we design a 3-step process in the
framework that integrates bibliometrics, patent analysis and TRM workshops. For emerging
technologies-based industry that is in the embryonic and nurturing stage, the first question lays
greater emphasis on R&D aspects, so we can use the bibliometric method and patent analysis to
analyze the existing R&D situation. In addition, the latter two questions rely on our understanding
of complex market and industrial settings, as well as the dynamics for developing the emerging
technologies, which call for the brainstorming and consensus of industrial experts, policy makers
and academics. TRM workshops can provide a valid, reliable process for formulating effective
planning and strategizing. The process of the framework is depicted as follows (Fig.2).
Step 1: Analyze the existing R&D situation of the emerging technology
In this step, we search for specific keywords related to the emerging technology among the
academic papers and patents database. The bibliometric method and patent analysis are used to
analyze the publications related to the emerging technology. The analysis of the information of
these publications and the changes in the frequency of publications over time can increase our
understanding of the R&D activity. The research hot points, technology opportunities, and
technology development trend in the field of the emerging technology can be visualized. And the
leading experts in the field of the emerging technology can also be identified. These leading
experts can be asked to participate in the TRM workshops and ensuing roadmap development.
Therefore, the first step in our framework will help us to understand the past and existing
R&D situation of the emerging technology in a global sense, and to elucidate the national
competitive advantage of China – is China still lagging behind or is it already among the leaders?
The results of the bibliometric method and patent analysis can support the planning and decision
making of experts who participate in the TRM workshops. And therefore, the introduction of the
bibliometric method and patent analysis into the application of TRM can significantly reduce the
bias arising from using experts’ opinions which are based on intuitive knowledge.
Step 2: Identify the key external factors that may shape the growth of emerging
technologies-based industry
In order to strategize and planning the future development of the emerging
technologies-based industry, we may need to take into account the macro-level influential factors
such as market trends, government policies, industrial competition, etc [8]. The fast-start
workshop approach is used in this step. The industrial experts, policy makers, and business
managers are invited to participate in the TRM workshop. Based on industrial historical
documents and experts’ experience, the macro-level settings and possible future events (as
opportunities, enablers, or barriers from market, policy and industry dynamics) may shape the
growth of emerging technologies-based industry can be identified in this workshop.
Step 3: Roadmapping the future development of emerging technologies-based industry
In this step, we need to analyze what are the opportunities and resources that can help us to
overcome the barriers to get our TRM goals, and what are the threats and weaknesses that prevent
us from getting our TRM goals [2]. Therefore, some of leading experts who are identified by
bibliometric method and patent analysis, industrial experts, and business managers are invited to
participate in this workshop to analyze how can we get our TRM goals. Combining with the
results of step 2, the future development roadmap of the emerging technologies-based industry
from technology, production, industry dynamics, market and policy can be drawn in this step.
The Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED) industry in China is taken as a case study to show
the implementation process of this framework. And the case study is discussed in the following
section.
Data
Academic
publications
Methods
Analysis
Step 1: Analyze the existing R&D position
of the emerging technology
Bibliometrics
Results
1. The technology hot
points and technology
trends in the technology
domains
2. The national
competitive
advantage in the
technology
domains
Patents
TRM Questions
Where are
we now?
3. The leading experts
in the technology
domains
Patents analysis
Step 2: Identify the key external factors that
may shape the growth of emerging
technologies-based industry
Market
Historical
documents
+Experts’
knowledge
TRM workshop
Industry
dynamics
4. The key events
in the macro-level
settings: market,
policy and
industry dynamics
Where do we
want to go?
5. The future
development
roadmap of the
emerging
technologies-based
industry
How can we
get there?
系统
Policy
Step 3: Roadmapping the future development
of emerging technologies-based industry
Policy environment
Policy
Market
Experts’
knowlege
TRM
workshop
Market demands
Industry
dynamics
Production
Industrial factors
Production patterns
Technology
R&D positions
5 year
10 year
15 year
Time
Fig. 2. The framework for analyzing the future development of emerging technology-based
industry based on bibliometrics, patent analysis and TRM workshops
4. Case study
4.1 Background: The OLED industry in China
Organic
Light-emitting
Diodes (OLED)
refers
to
the
technology that
organic semiconductor materials emit light under the influence of electric field. OLED display has
more advantages than numerous other display technologies. The features of the OLED display are:
(1) self-illuminating; (2) low energy-consumption; (3) limitless viewing angle; (4) fast response;
(5) easy to use for a large area; (6) flexible; and (7) has a simple manufacturing process [33]. The
OLED display is considered might eventually replace liquid crystal displays (LCDs) in the future
and has the potential to become the next mainstream display technology [34].
China started to undertake the R&D of OLED materials, components and the mass
production process in 1990s. China’s research on OLED technology started from universities’
laboratories, mainly in Tsinghua University, Shanghai University, and other universities or
research institutions. Shanghai University embarked on research on OLED in 1990, and set up the
Shanghai Spaceflight SU OLED Technology Co., Ltd. in 2001 to be engaged in the pilot-scale
production of OLED. Tsinghua University set up the OLED project team in 1996 to embark on
research in this technology field.
Since 2001, some Chinese companies have ventured into developing OLED productions, and
the industrialization of OLED technology gradually taking shape. In 2001, Beijing Visionox
Technology Co., Ltd. was set up. It set up the first pilot line of OLED in Chinese Mainland, which
started with small-lot production of OLED [35]. With its products going into the field of
instrument and meter, the company became the first company of Chinese Mainland engaged in
production and marketing of its independently developed OLED productions. From 2005, China’s
OLED industry has been developing fast and a large number of companies kept going into the
industry, resulting in the rapid development of Active Matrix Organic Light-emitting Diodes
(AMOLED) technology in recent years. In 2010, the first AMOLED pilot line was completed and
put into production in Kunshan. Until now, China has formed a whole industrial chain of OLED
development and material production, and AMOLED industrial bases have been established in
Kunshan, Chengdu, Foshan, Xiamen and other cities. China already has a number of AMOLED
production lines, including the G5.5 line of BOE Technology Group CO LTD, G4.5 line of
Sichuan CCO Display Technology CO LTD, G4.5 line of Beijing Visionox Technology CO LTD,
etc [35]. Among them, the G5.5 line of BOE Technology Group CO LTD was put into production
in November 2013.
Although China has made rapid development in OLED industry in the past decade, it lags far
behind in many respects when compared with developed countries, especially in OLED equipment
manufacturing, core technology and some key raw materials.
OLED industry is a science and technology-based industry. OLED technology has become
one of the key high-tech fields that involve international competition. At present, some developed
countries have given full attention to the OLED industry, for instance, the government of Japan
and South Korea have given tremendous support to their domestic OLED industry. Global display
technology giants like Samsung SDI CO LTD, LG Display CO LTD and Sony CORP have
attached great importance to the OLED technology and its future applications and have invested a
huge of money in the R&D field of OLED, with hoping to uphold their leadership position in the
global OLED industry [35]. Faced with intensive global competition in the OLED industry, if
China’s OLED industry wishes to maintain its healthy, sustainable development, China needs to
master the core technology of the industry in the global innovation race.
Therefore, it is first necessary to analyze the R&D status and future development trends
related to global OLED technology and the R&D status of China in the OLED technology field in
order to provide a foundation for understanding the future development of China’s OLED
industry.
4.2 An analysis of OLED technology based on biblimetrics
This paper applies the bibliometric method to analyze global and China’s basic science
research status in the field of OLED technology. The number of papers, research organization
co-occurrence, research hot point and international cooperation analyses related to OLED
technology based on the bibliometric method will be discussed in the following section.
4.2.1 Data collection
This paper uses the term “(organic* light-emitting* diode*) or (organic*
electroluminescence* display*) or (organic* light-emitting* devices*) or oled or oleds or pleds or
pled or (organic* light* emitting* diode*) or (organic* light* emitting* devices*) or (organic*
light-emitting* display*) or (organic* light* emitting* display*)” as the query to search published
papers on the Web of Science (SCI-EXPANDED) database. The document types are article,
proceedings paper, letter and review respectively. The search was done on May 30th, 2014. 18,666
published papers were retrieved from the database from 1980 to 2013. The annual number of SCI
papers related to OLED is shown in Fig.3.
Fig. 3. Annual number of SCI papers related to OLED
4.2.2 Data analysis
4.2.2.1 Paper number analysis
In order to analyze the 18,666 SCI papers related to OLED, we imported these papers data
into the Thomson Data Analyzer (TDA). After cleaning the imported papers data, the OLED
technology trend report was produced by the Thomson Data Analyzer automatically. The date of
the report creation is June 5th, 2014. The annual numbers of people active and technological terms
related to OLED are shown in Fig.4 and Fig.5 respectively, with the SCI paper numbers related to
OLED by country/region and year in Fig.6. The percentage of SCI paper numbers related to
OLED by country/region is shown in Fig.7.
As can be seen on Fig.4, since 2005, many new researchers have studied OLED. Likewise,
Fig.5 indicates that large numbers of new technology terms appeared after 2005. This shows that
the basic research field of OLED has been very active in the last ten years.
As can be seen from Fig.6, from 1999 to 2013, the number of China’s annual SCI papers on
OLED increased constantly and since 2005, has outstripped that of developed countries such as
the Japan, South Korea, and USA. Besides, from the SCI papers publication time, we can see that
China started to research OLED around 1995, later than the U.S. and Japan, but almost the same
time as other developed countries. The total number of China’s SCI papers had reached 4,295 by
the end of 2013, accounting for 23% of global numbers (Fig. 7).
Fig. 4. Annual number of people active related to OLED
Fig. 5. Annual number of technology terms related to OLED
Fig. 6. SCI paper numbers related to OLED by country/region and year
Fig. 7. The percent of SCI paper numbers related to OLED by country/region
4.2.2.2 Research organization co-occurrence analysis
In this paper, we use Ucinet software to analyze the global research organization
co-occurrence of OLED. The steps are as follows. Firstly, we imported the 18,666 published
papers into TDA software, and cleaned the data of the organizations which the authors belong to in
each paper. Due to there are a large number of organizations which study OLED, so we selected
top 100 organizations to ensure that co-occurrence network can be clearly shown. Then, an
organization co-occurrence matrix was constructed based on the top 100 organizations cleared
data. Then, it was imported into Ucinet software. Finally, the results are shown in Fig.8, and the
centrality degree of organization co-occurrence network of OLED.
Fig. 8. The organization co-occurrence network related to OLED
In Fig. 8, the nodes represent the research organizations with their names on the right, and the
size of the node represents the total cooperation frequency of the organization with the others. The
links between the different nodes represent the cooperation existing between the organizations,
and the thickness of the link represents the cooperation frequency between the two organizations.
As can be seen from Fig. 8, the larger-size nodes are: Chinese Acad Sci (Chinese Academy of
Sciences), Natl Taiwan Univ (National Taiwan University), Natl Tsing Hua Univ (National Tsing
Hua University) and Jilin Univ (Jilin University), which means that these four organizations have
cooperated with others more often than the rest research organizations, and they are leading
research organizations in the basic research field of OLED. The links from the node (Chinese
Acad Sci) to many different nodes show that the Chinese Academy of Sciences engages in
considerable cooperative researches with many other international research organizations.
As can be seen from Fig.8 and Table 1, besides the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the
Jilin University, there are many Chinese research organizations, such as City Univ Hong Kong
(City University of Hong Kong), S China Univ Technol (South China University of Technology),
Wuhan Univ (Wuhan University), Fudan Univ (Fudan University) and Tsinghua Univ (Tsinghua
University), indicating that these organizations have also engaged in the study of OLED
technology and have carried out much frequent international cooperation in the study of OLED
technology.
Table 1 The centrality degree of organization co-occurrence network with regard to OLED
No.
Organization name
Country/Region
Normalized
centrality degree
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Chinese Acad Sci
Natl Taiwan Univ
Natl Tsing Hua Univ
Jilin Univ
Acad Sinica
Sungk yunkwan Univ
Hongik Univ
Natl Chiao Tung Univ
City Univ Hong Kong
Seoul Natl Univ
Hong Kong Baptist Univ
Korea Adv Inst Sci & Technol
S China Univ Technol
Korea Inst Sci & Technol
Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol
Ind Technol Res Inst
Dan kook Univ
Princeton Univ
Wuhan Univ
Fudan Univ
China
Taiwan
Taiwan
China
Taiwan
South Korea
South Korea
Taiwan
China
South Korea
China
South Korea
China
South Korea
China
Taiwan
South Korea
USA
China
China
4.033
2.049
1.96
1.856
1.792
1.575
1.527
1.478
1.269
1.165
1.028
0.996
0.98
0.924
0.86
0.844
0.828
0.82
0.787
0.779
The top ten research organizations related to OLED are shown in Table 2, which shows that
the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Jilin University have published the larger number of SCI
papers with regard to OLED, and that both of them started to research OLED in 1990s, almost as
early as the earliest organizations in the world. These show that China has a strong basic research
capability in the field of OLED technology.
As can be seen from Table 2, we can identify the leading research organizations and who are
the leading experts in the basic research field of OLED technology in the world. Such as, Ma,
Dongge engaged in the study of OLED technology at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, who have
published 170 SCI papers with regard to OLED. He was invited to participate in our workshop as
a technology expert.
Table 2 The top ten research organizations with regard to OLED
Number of
Organization name
Top People
Year Range
（Region）
Records
973
Country
Chinese Acad Sci
China
Percentage of
Records in Last 3 Years
Ma, Dongge(170);
1996-2013
33% of 973
1996-2013
40% of 603
Wong, KenTsung (54); 2000-2013
34% of 391
Wang, Lixiang(71)
603
Jilin Univ
China
Liu, S.Y.(92)
Ma, Yuguang(90)
391
Natl Taiwan Univ
Taiwan
Wu, Chung-Chih(53)
361
Hongik Univ
South Korea
Kim, Y.K.(209);
1999-2013
35% of 361
1994-2013
21% of 299
2001-2013
36% of 287
1999-2013
49% of 283
2000-2013
49% of 278
1997-2013
32% of 275
1999-2013
39% of 262
Yoon, S.S.(121)
299
Natl Chiao Tung Univ
Taiwan
Chen, Chin Hsin(75);
Hsu, Chain Shu(21)
287
S China Univ Technol
China
Cao, Yong(179);
Peng, Junbiao(53)
283
Sungk yunk wan Univ
South Korea
Yoon, S.S.(128);
Lee, K.H.(124)
278
Dankook Univ
South Korea
Lee, J.Y.(201);
Yook, K.S.(89)
275
Seoul Natl Univ
South Korea
Kim, J.J.(76);
Lee, C.H.(36)
262
Natl Tsing Hua Univ
Taiwan
Chi, Yun(60);
Jou, Jwo-Huei(59)
4.2.2.3 Research hot point analysis
In general, the word with higher frequency indicates that this word attracts more attention.
And this word can be regarded as the research hot point in the field [36].
In order to find out the global research hot points of OLED, we selected 5,543 SCI papers
from the 18,666 SCI papers with the period 2011 to 2013. We imported the 5,543 SCI papers into
TDA software, and cleaned the data of the keywords which belong to in each paper. And the
global top ten frequency keywords with regard to OLED are shown in Fig. 9.
In order to find out the China’s research hot points of OLED, we selected 1,595 SCI papers
from the 4,295 SCI papers with the period 2011 to 2013. The same steps as for the global research
hot point were implemented. And the China’s top ten frequency keywords with regard to OLED
are shown in Fig. 10.
As can be seen from Figs. 9-10, China’s research hot points for OLED are almost coincide
with those of the global ones.
Fig. 9. The top ten frequency keywords related to global OLED from 2011 to 2013
Fig. 10. The top ten frequency keywords related to China’s OLED from 2011 to 2013
4.2.2.4 International cooperation analysis
International cooperation research is of great significance for improving the level of scientific
research and innovation capability. In order to analyze the status of China’s international
cooperation research in the field of OLED, We use Ucinet software to analyze the international
cooperation research network. The steps are as follows. Firstly, we imported the 18,666 published
papers into TDA, and cleaned the data of the country/region which the authors belong to in each
paper. The country/region cooperation matrix is constructed by using TDA. Then, the
country/region cooperation matrix was imported into Ucinet software. Finally, the The
international cooperation network related to OLED was drawn by the use of Ucinet software. The
results were shown in Fig.11.
Fig. 11. The international cooperation network related to OLED
In Fig. 11, the nodes represent countries/regions with their names on the right. The size of the
node represents the total number of countries that cooperate with it. The link between the different
nodes indicates the cooperation relations between the countries/regions, and the thickness of the
link represents the frequency of the cooperation between the two countries /regions.
As can be seen on Fig.11, the top five countries regarding cooperation frequency are USA
(1025), China (733), Germany (719), UK (563) and Japan (416) respectively. China has
cooperated with many countries to research on OLED, particularly USA, Japan, South Korea and
Germany. Besides, these four countries also have frequent cooperation with other
countries/regions. This shows that China has engaged in the highest level of international
cooperation with regard to research into OLED technology.
4.2.3 Overall result analysis
From the results of the annual paper number, people active and technological terms related to
OLED technology based on bibliometrics, it is clear that the research on this field has been very
active in recent years. Since 2005, China has produced more annual SCI papers than developed
countries such as the Japan, South Korea, and USA. The Chinese Academy of Sciences and
Jilin University have published the larger number of SCI papers, and both of them started to
research OLED almost as early as the earliest organizations in the world; the Chinese Academy of
Sciences has engaged in cooperative research with the highest number of international research
institutions. China’s research hot points for OLED are similar to the global ones; and China has
engaged in a higher level of international collaboration research in this field.
These results mean that China has a strong basic research capability in the field of OLED
technology and been at the international forefront with regard to research into OLED technology,
which has provided a solid base for it to develop its OLED technology-based PV industry in the
future.
4.3 An analysis of OLED technology based on patents data
In order to analyze the distribution and applicants of China’s patents related to OLED, this
paper applies the patent analysis method to analyze the patent data in the field of OLED
technology. The number of patents and patent map analyses related to OLED based on the patent
analysis method will be discussed in the following section.
4.3.1 Data collection
This paper uses the term “(organic* light-emitting* diode*) or (organic*
electroluminescence* display*) or (organic* light-emitting* devices*) or oled or oleds or pleds or
pled or (organic* light* emitting* diode*) or (organic* light* emitting* devices*) or (organic*
light-emitting* display*) or (organic* light* emitting* display*)” as the query to search applied
patents on the Derwent Innovations Index database. 21,619 applied patents were retrieved from
the database from 1984 to 2013.
4.3.2 Data analysis
4.3.2.1 Patent number analysis
In order to understand the development trend of OLED technology patents and the major
patent applicants, we made the statistics of the 21,619 patents. We especially analyzed the patents
of USA, Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan. And the annual applied patents number of USA,
Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan is shown in Fig.12. The percent of applied patents numbers
related to OLED by country/region in the world is shown in Fig.13.
Fig. 12. Annual applied patents number of USA, Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan
As can be seen from Fig. 12, Japan and USA have applied for OLED patents since 1980s,
while South Korea and China since 2000. Since 2006, South Korea has produced more annual
OLED patents than other countries such as the Japan, China and USA. Although the applied
patents number slightly decreased in 2007 and 2008, South Korea still have the most applied
patents number until 2013. From 1999 to 2013, the number of China’s applied patents on OLED
increased constantly and since 2012, has outstripped that of developed countries such as the Japan
and USA.
Fig. 13. The percent of applied patents numbers related to OLED by country/region
As can be seen from Fig. 13, the applied patents on OLED in the world are mainly distributed
in South Korea, USA, Japan and China. South Korea has the most applied patents on OLED,
accounting for the world’s 37.78%, USA, Japan and China accounting for 19.85%, 16.71% and
8.19% respectively.
4.3.2.2 Patent map analysis
In order to understand the layout of the global OLED technology research and development,
we produced a patent map for the global OLED technology based on the 21,619 patents data with
the help of Thomson Innovation. The results are shown in Fig. 14.
As can be seen on Fig.14, the R&D hotspots of global OLED technology lie in the solid-state
devices and related processing techniques, electroluminescent light source, luminescent materials
and control circuit of display devices.
Fig. 14. Patent map for the global OLED technology
In order to understand China’s R&D hotspots in the field of OLED technology, we conducted
a secondary retrieval in the global OLED patent map with the use of “CN” in the priority
“country/region” word. And the result is shown in Fig.14. As can be seen on Fig.14, the R&D
hotspots of China’s OLED technology focus on organic luminescent materials, electroluminescent
light source and control circuit of solid-state devices.
Fig. 15. Patent Map for the global OLED technology and China’s focus (Red color showing
China’s patents)
In order to know who mainly applied for the OLED technology patents in China, which may
can better serve the TRM workshop, we use TDA to analyze patent assignees of the OLED
technology. The steps are as follows. Firstly, we carried out a secondary retrieval among the
21,619 patents on OLED, and the 1,786 China’s applied patents are searched. Then, we imported
the 1,786 China’s applied patents into TDA software, and cleaned the data of the patent assignees.
Finally, some of the results are shown in Table 3.
As can be seen from Table 3, we can find that BOE TECHNOLOGY GROUP CO LTD,
SICHUAN CCO DISPLAY TECHNOLOGY CO LTD, TSINGHUA UNIV, KUNSHAN INST
TECHNOLOGY NEW PANEL DISPLA and BEIJING VISIONOX TECHNOLOGY CO LTD
have applied larger number of patents with regard to OLED in China. And we can identify who
are the leading experts in the application field of OLED technology in these top five organizations.
Such as, QI, Xiao-jing engaged in the study of OLED technology at BOE TECHNOLOGY
GROUP CO LTD, who have applied 35 patents with regard to OLED. QIU, Yong is the major
patent applicant in TSINGHUA UNIV 、KUNSHAN INST TECHNOLOGY NEW PANEL
DISPLA、BEIJING VISIONOX TECHNOLOGY CO LTD, who have applied more than 48
patents with regard to OLED. This is of prime importance information for us to construct TRM
workshops. Therefore, LI, Fengming who is one key technology experts of QI, Xiao-jing research
team was invited to participate in our workshop as a technology expert. LI, Yan and LIU, Song
who are key technology experts of QIU, Yong research team were also invited to participate in our
workshop as technology experts. And YANG, Shujuan who is the business manager in BEIJING
VISIONOX TECHNOLOGY CO LTD was invited to participate in our workshop as a business
expert.
Table 3 The top five patent assignees with regard to OLED in China
Number of
Organization name
Top People
Year Range
Records
251
Percentage of
Records in Last 3 Years
BOE TECHNOLOGY GROUP CO LTD
QI, Xiao-jing(35)
2008-2013
97% of 251
2009-2013
81% of 119
2004-2013
42% of 52
2007-2013
69% of 48
2004-2013
62% of 47
JIN, Xi-zhe(23)
119
52
SICHUAN CCO DISPLAY
GAO, Xin-wei(28)
TECHNOLOGY CO LTD
XIANG, Xin(17)
TSINGHUA UNIV
QIU, Yong (47)
WU, Kong-wu(11)
48
KUNSHAN INST TECHNOLOGY
QIU, Yong (48)
NEW PANEL DISPLA
HUANG, Xiu-qi(33)
47
BEIJING VISIONOX TECHNOLOGY
QIU, Yong (41)
CO LTD
DUAN, Lian(12)
4.3.3 Overall result analysis
From the results of the patent data analysis, applied patents related on OLED in the world are
mainly distributed in South Korea, USA, Japan, China, Taiwan and Germany. It indicates that
these countries/regions have relatively strong R&D capability in the field of OLED. The number
of China’s applied patents on OLED increased constantly in recent years, and since 2012, has
outstripped that of developed countries such as the Japan and USA. It shows that China in the
research on this field has been very active in recent years, and the R&D hotspots of China’s OLED
technology focus on organic luminescent materials, electroluminescent light source and control
circuit of solid-state devices. The prime importance information for us to construct TRM
workshops is that we can identify who are the leading experts in the field of OLED technology in
China.
4.4 Macro-environment analysis of future development of OLED industry
According to the results of bibliometrics and patent analysis in the section 4.2 and 4.3, China
have relatively strong R&D capability in the field of OLED, and China’s basic research has been
at the international forefront in the research field of OLED, which have provided a solid base for it
to develop its OLED industry in the future. Therefore, based on these results, we will apply TRM
workshops to strategize and plan the future development of the OLED industry in China.
In order to identify the key external factors that may shape the future development of OLED
industry in China, the fast-start strategic roadmapping method was applied, and TRM workshop I
was designed (Table 4). The process of the TRM workshop is depicted as follows:
(1) Design: determine the dimensions and procedure of this TRM workshop. In this step, the
experts from Ministry of Science and Technology who are familiar with TRM methods and the
development history and status quo of OLED industry in China was invited to participate in our
workshop, and joint us to design the TRM workshop. According to experts’ opinions and our
practical experience, we finally decided to roadmapping the future development of OLED industry
in China from policy, market, industry dynamics, product and technology perspectives with the
timeframe from 2013 to 2030, and analyze key events and influence factors may shape the future
development of OLED industry from policy, market and industry dynamics perspectives.
(2) Discussion: analyze and discuss the opportunities and challenges for the future
development of OLED industry from policy, market and industry dynamics. In this part of the
workshop, we encouraged the experts to brainstorm and elicit possible future events from policy,
market and industry dynamics perspectives. Firstly, the experts discussed about the future market
demands and possible application areas of OLED technology. Then, the opportunities and
challenges of the future development of OLED industry from industry dynamics perspective were
discussed. Finally, policies and regulations which might be formulated by Chinese government to
promote or influence the future development of OLED industry were discussed. We wrote down
any major events and factors which may affect the future development of OLED industry in
China.
(3) Review: identify the key external factors that may shape the future development of
OLED industry in China from policy, market and industry dynamics. In this step, we compiled the
insights that had been produced and validated by the experts’ discussion. We counted those key
events (or factors) that are highly likely to occur. Highly uncertain events were excluded, although
these may cause disruptions that alter the path of the OLED industry. We summarized the output
of this workshop in Table 5. As mentioned above, only the key events (as opportunities or
challenges) remain on the list. Based on this, the authors further explored and planned the future
development of the OLED industry in China through a second workshop.
In Table 5, about the market dimension, most experts agreed that OLED technology has been
extensively applied to smart phones, smart watches, tablet PCs, instruments, vehicle-mounted
displays, etc., which is also the main application market for OLED technology in the future; In the
area of TV, especially the large-sized TV, it will be one of main market for OLED technology in
the future; In terms of the smart portable devices (such as portable TV or laptops which can be put
into the pockets), it will be the most attractive market for OLED technology. As for industrial
competition pressure, OLED display industry is mainly stressed from TFT-LCD industry and the
breakthroughs of emerging LED technologies for now and a long time in the future. From the
policy perspective, the R&D policy, demand side policy and energy conservation policies will
stimulate the future development of OLED industry in China. Especially, the R&D policy is
important for future development of Chinese OLED industry, such as increasing R&D capital of
OLED technology, and establishing OLED industrial fund to encouraging the R&D cooperation
among universities, research institutions and enterprises. Additionally, industrial laws, regulations
and criteria will facilitate the healthy development of Chinese OLED industry.
Table 4 The design of TRM workshop I
Stages
Objectives and analysis
Workshop experts
1
To determine the dimensions
procedure of the TRM workshop
and
Experts from Ministry of Science and
Technology
2
To analyze and discuss the opportunities
and
challenges
for
the
future
development of OLED industry from
policy, market and industry dynamics
Experts from BEIJING VISIONOX
TECHNOLOGY CO LTD, BOE
TECHNOLOGY GROUP CO LTD,
Ministry of Science and Technology,
and Tsinghua University
3
To identify the key external factors that
may shape the future development of
OLED industry in China from policy,
market and industry dynamics
Experts from BEIJING VISIONOX
TECHNOLOGY CO LTD, BOE
TECHNOLOGY GROUP CO LTD,
Ministry of Science and Technology,
and Tsinghua University
Table 5 Dimensions and key events of macro-level settings
Dimensions
Key events
Time
Policy
Supportive policies of energy conservation
2020~2030
Policy
R&D policies, such as increasing R&D capital of OLED technology,
establishing OLED industrial fund
2014~2025
Policy
Formulation of OLED industrial laws, regulations, and industrial
criteria
2015~2030
Policy
Demand side policies,
demonstration projects
2014~2025
Market
Tablet PCs, TV
Market
Smart phones, smart
vehicle-mounted displays
instruments,
2014~2030
Market
Smart portable devices (such as portable TV or laptops which can be
put into the pockets)
2020~2030
Market
Military and aerospace display areas
2015~2030
Industry
dynamics
Competitive pressure from TFT-LCD industry
2014~2025
Industry
dynamics
Limitations of current LCD technology and breakthroughs of
emerging LED technology
2015~2030
Industry
dynamics
Development and configuration of smart display devices
2020~2030
Industry
dynamics
Application and development of emerging display technologies
2020~2030
such
as
government
procurement,
2014~2030
watches,
tablet
PCs,
4.5 TRM for the future development of OLED industry in China
Based on the key external factors that may shape the future development of OLED industry
in China were identified from the last workshop, this workshop mainly determines the future
development paths of OLED technology, and finally roadmapping the future development of
OLED industry in China. So in this step, we also used the fast-start strategic roadmapping method,
and designed the TRM workshop II (Table 6). The process of this TRM workshop is depicted as
follows:
(1) Design: determine the tasks and process of this TRM workshop. In this step, YANG,
Shujuan who is the business manager in BEIJING VISIONOX TECHNOLOGY CO LTD was
invited to participate in this workshop, and joint us to design this TRM workshop. And for this
workshop, the leading experts in China who identified by bibliometrics and patent analysis were
invited to participate in this workshop, including Ma, Dongge from Chinese Academy of Sciences,
LI, Yan and LIU, Song who are key technology experts of QIU, Yong research team from
BEIJING VISIONOX TECHNOLOGY CO LTD, and LI, fengming from BOE TECHNOLOGY
GROUP CO LTD.
(2) Discussion: analyze and determine the future development paths of OLED technology. In
this step, firstly, we prepared the results of bibliometrics and patent analysis, and the output of last
workshop for the experts, in order to provide them with a solid basis for in-depth discussion. Then,
we encouraged the experts to brainstorm and to focus on the production and technology
perspective to define the future development paths when considering the impact factors and
dynamics. We summarized the experts’ consensus judgments in Table 7.
(3) Review: Roadmapping the future development of future development of OLED industry
in China from policy, market, industry dynamics, production, and technology. Combining with the
results of last workshop, the future development roadmap of the OLED industry in China from
policy, market, Industry dynamics, production and technology perspectives is shown in Fig.16.
In Fig.16, for the technology dimension, experts considered that the research and develop of
China’s OLED technology will focus on OLED backboard technology, OLED display pixel
technology and OLED film forming technology, while prepare for flexible OLED display
technology as well as the development and application of new OLED materials in particular. In
terms of production dimension, we will still need to focus on middle and small size OLED
displays with improving the performance and efficiency of the OLED production; and we need to
prepare for the flexible wearable OLED production which will be a very attractive production in
the future. Additionally, the large-scale commercialized application of big-sized OLED displays
will promote the development of OLED display industry.
As mentioned earlier, Fig. 16 briefly roadmap the future development of OLED industry in
China. On this roadmap, the impacts of events with high uncertainty are not depicted. During the
process of TRM workshops, it is experts’ consensus that: (1) The large-scale application of
big-sized OLED displays and R&D policies will promote the development of OLED display
industry in China, and with the rapid development of OLED technology, the large-scale
commercialized production will be probably realized around 2020. (2) The large-scale
commercialized application of flexible wearable OLED production will be probably realized
around 2025. Such information may provide a useful reference for government’s OLED policies
and enterprises’ investment strategies.
Table 6 The design of TRM workshop II
Stages
Objectives and analysis
Workshop experts
1
To determine the tasks and process of this
TRM workshop
Experts from BEIJING VISIONOX
TECHNOLOGY CO LTD
2
To determine future development paths of
OLED from technology and production
Experts from BEIJING VISIONOX
TECHNOLOGY CO LTD, BOE
TECHNOLOGY GROUP CO LTD,
Chinese Academy of Sciences and
Tsinghua University
3
Roadmapping the future development of
future development of OLED industry in
China from policy, market, industry
dynamics, production, and technology
Experts from BEIJING VISIONOX
TECHNOLOGY CO LTD, BOE
TECHNOLOGY GROUP CO LTD,
Chinese Academy of Sciences and
Tsinghua University
Table 7 Dimensions and development paths of OLED technology
Dimensions
Development paths
Time
Production
The commercialized application of large-sized OLED displays
2015~2025
Production
The large-scale commercialized application of large-sized OLED
2020~2030
displays
Production
Middle and small size OLED displays
2014~2030
Production
Flexible wearable OLED devices
2017~2030
Technology
OLED backboard technology
2014~2030
Technology
OLED display pixel technology
2014~2030
Technology
OLED film forming technology
2014~2030
Technology
Flexible OLED display technology
2015~2030
Technology
Development and application of new OLED materials
2020~2030
2014-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
Supportive policies of energy conservation
R&D policies, such as increasing R&D capital, establishing OLED industrial fund
Policy
Formulation of OLED industrial laws, regulations, and
industrial criteria
Demand side policies, such as government procurement, demonstration projects
Tablet PCs, TV
Smart phones, smart watches, tablet PCs, instruments, vehicle-mounted displays
Market
Smart portable devices
Military and aerospace display areas
Limitations of current LCD technology and breakthroughs of emerging LED technology
Development and configuration of smart display devices
Industry
dynamics
Application and development of emerging technologies
Competitive pressure from TFT-LCD industry
The commercialized application of large-sized OLED displays
The large-scale commercialized application of large-sized
OLED displays
Production
Middle and small size OLED displays
Flexible wearable OLED devices
OLED backboard technology
OLED display pixel technology
Technology
OLED film forming technology
Flexible OLED display technology
Development and application of new OLED materials
Fig.16. The future development roadmap of the OLED industry in China
5. Discussion and Conclusions
This paper attempts to present a framework that combining bibliometrics, patent analysis and
TRM workshops method, in order to strategize and plan the future development of emerging
technologies-based industries. In the framework, bibliometrics and patent analysis for analyzing
the existing position of science and technology, and TRM workshops for strategizing the future
development path from technology to application and the market involving various stakeholders,
including technological experts, industrial experts, policy makers, and business managers. Besides,
the leading experts who are identified by bibliometrics and patent analysis are asked to participate
in the TRM workshops and ensuing roadmap development. The OLED industry in China was
employed as a case study, through which the proposed framework has been proven to be valid and
flexible. This paper will contribute to the roadmapping methodology, and will be of interest to
OLED industry researchers.
Some key findings and contributions are listed as follows:
(1) The framework provides a tool for roadmapping and planning the future development of
emerging technology-based industry, with understanding of the existing science and technology
trajectory and the identification of the future macro-level trends in the policy, market, and industry
dynamics.
(2) According to the findings of bibliometrics and patent analysis, China have relatively
strong R&D capability in the field of OLED, and China’s basic research has been at the
international forefront in the research field of OLED, which have provided a solid base for it to
develop its OLED industry in the future.
(3) A roadmap for the future development of the OLED industry in China was developed in
this paper, which may provide a useful reference for government’s OLED policies and enterprises’
investment strategies.
The limitations of this paper are as follows: (1) The framework presented in this paper is
applied to explore a future-oriented analysis supported by bibliometrics and patent analysis, rather
than to forecast the specific development trend of emerging technologies-based industry. We
didn’t take highly uncertainty events which may alter the development path of emerging
technologies-based industry into consideration. It is an interesting research direction that
combining scenario analysis, business data analysis, bibliometrics, patent analysis, and TRM to
analyze future development trend of emerging technologies-based industry. This is also a potential
direction for future-oriented analysis. (2) As for the roadmap, due to the finiteness of experts and
availability of data resource, in-depth enterprises’ interviews and business data analysis remain to
be done to improve the reliability and validity of it.
Acknowledgements
This paper is supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China (Grant 11&ZD140),
National Science Foundation of China (Grant 71203117), and Ministry of Education Social
Science Youth Foundation of China (14YJC630071).
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Thomson
Innovation,
“ThemeScape”
Retried
3-26-2014
World
Wide
Web,
http://www.thomsoninnovation.com/tip-innovation/support/help/themescape.htm.
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