EIA Marcellus Shale Play Map*
Olga H. Popova1, Margaret Coleman2, Evan Frye2, Gary Long2, and Elizabeth Panarelli2
Search and Discovery Article #10767 (2015)
Posted August 24, 2015
*Adapted from oral presentation given at AAPG Annual Convention & Exhibition, Denver, Colorado, May 31-June 3, 2015
1
US DOE, EIA, Washington, District of Columbia, United States (olga.popova@eia.gov)
US DOE, EIA, Washington, District of Columbia, United States
2
Abstract
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is updating maps of major tight oil and shale gas plays of the lower 48 states
including the Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin. The revised Marcellus play map summarizes geologic play elements,
the growth of production, and distribution of sweet spots within the play based on publicly available data and a commercial well
information database. The Middle Devonian Marcellus Shale was deposited during the early stages of mountain building events
in a foreland basin. The Marcellus Shale disconformably overlies the Onondaga Limestone and is composed of a basal black
shale, a widespread limestone unit, and an upper black shale. Key geologic drivers defining the most prospective areas within
the Marcellus Shale footprint are comparable to other shale-gas plays and consist of an optimal combination of structural,
geochemical, petrophysical, and thermodynamic characteristics. From 2004 through July 2014 more than 7000 wells targeting
the Marcellus Shale were drilled in the Appalachian Basin (Drilling Info, Inc). Reported natural gas production from the
Marcellus play is more than 15 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), accounting for almost 40% of U.S. shale gas production as of
July 2014 (EIA, 2014). For the Marcellus play, the geologic elements presented include contoured elevation of the top and base
of formation, isopach, major structures and tectonic features, play boundaries, well locations, and gas-to-oil ratios of producing
wells. Additional map layers will be added as additional geologic data becomes available.
References Cited
EIA, 2014, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 – With Projections to 2040: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington,
D.C., 269 p.
Pool, S., R. Boswell, J.E. Lewis, and J.P. Mathews, 2013, A Preliminary Geology-Based Natural Gas Resource Assessment of
the Marcellus Shale for West Virginia: Conference Proceedings, AAPG Annual Convention and Exhibition Pittsburgh, PA.
Popova, O.H., M.J. Small, K. Carter, S.T. McCoy, A.C. Thomas, S. Rose, B. Karimi, and A. Goodman, 2014, Spatial Stochastic
Modeling of Sedimentary Formations to Assess CO2 Storage Potential: Environmental Science and Technology, 48/11, p. 62476255.
Websites Cited
EIA Online Maps. http://www.eia.gov/pub/oil_gas/natural_gas/analysis_publications/maps/maps.htm
Shale Gas and Tight Oil Plays in the Lower 48 States: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on data from various
published studies, Updated April 14, 2015. http://www.eia.gov/oil_gas/rpd/shale_gas.pdf
Shale Gas and Tight Oil Plays in the Lower 48 States by Geologic Age: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on data
from various published studies, Updated April 13, 2015. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=20852
Structure Map of the Marcellus Formation (Subsea Depth), Map includes production wells (7,894) from January 2003 through
December 2014: U.S. Energy Information Administration. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=20612
EIA Marcellus Shale Play Map
by Olga Popova (PhD), Gary Long, Evan Frye,
Margaret Coleman (PhD), and Elizabeth Panarelli
AAPG 2015 Annual Convention & Exhibition
May 31-June 3, 2015, Denver, Colorado
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis
www.eia.gov
• Overview
• Dataset
• Marcellus maps for model development
• Next steps
Shale gas and tight oil plays in the lower 48 states
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Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on data from various published studies
http://www.eia.gov/oil_gas/rpd/shale_gas.pdf I Updated April 14, 2015
"
Shale gas and tight oil plays in the lower 48 states by geologic age
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Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on data from various published studies
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=20852 I Updated April 13, 2015
Datasets for the Marcellus shale
• DI (DrillingInfo) well data
• State well data (PA, OH, NY, and WV)
• Published articles and information provided by State
agencies on stratigraphy, lithology, tectonics, and
petrophysical properties
We integrated EIA research with DI and State well data and
prepared a combined dataset for Marcellus
Datasets and Applications
-Well data
-Stratigraphy
-Structural
features
-USGS
topography
-formation
boundary
-SAS
-jmp
-Excel
-ArcGIS
-Surfer
-QGIS
Marcellus
shale
model
Geologic cross section through the Appalachian Basin, NY
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Devonian interval
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Depth, ft
1400
3800
1500
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4000
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Source: Taury Smith and Jim Leone, New York State Geological Survey
Geologic cross section through the Appalachian Basin, PA
Devonian interval
Depth, ft
7000
7500
Depth, ft
3000
8000
3500
Marcellus Fm
Marcellus Fm
Marcellus
Fm
8500
4000
9000
Source: Popova, O. H., Small, M. J., Kristin Carter, at all., 2014. Spatial Stochastic Modeling of Sedimentary Formations to Assess CO2 Storage Potential, ES&T, 48(11),
6247-6255.
Geologic cross section through the Appalachian Basin, WV
Devonian interval
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PRESTON . 1/8
EAST
Depth, ft
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Depth, ft
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5900
6900
6000
7000
o
Source: Susan Pool, Ray Boswell , J. Eric Lewis , and Jonathan P. Mathews, A Preliminary Geology-Based Natural Gas Resource
Assessment of the Marcellus Shale for West Virginia, West Virginia Geological & Economic Survey.
Marcellus formation (wells with stratigraphic picks)
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Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on DrillingInfo Inc., New York State Geological Survey, Ohio State Geological Survey, Pennsylvania
Bureau of Topographic & Geologic Survey, West Virginia Geological & Economic Survey, and U.S. Geological Survey
Note: EIA used stratigraphic picks from 2,416 wells for the top and bottom of the Marcellus provided directly by state geological survey agencies. These wells
may not be producing from the Marcellus formation; however, these are the wells the state agencies used for their stratigraphic picks.
Interpolation and contouring: Surfer, QGIS, & ArcGIS
2 by 2 km grid produced by QGIS
algorithm, to acquire ArcGis
kriging raster outcome
Structure map of the Marcellus formation (subsea depth)
West Virginia
Kentucky
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=20612
based on DrillingInfo Inc., New York State Geological Survey, Ohio State Geological Survey, Pennsylvania Bureau of Topographic & Geologic Survey, West
Virginia Geological & Economic Survey, and U.S. Geological Survey
Note: Map includes production wells (7,894) from January 2003 through December 2014.
Thickness map of the Marcellus formation
West Virginia
Kentucky
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=20612
based on DrillingInfo Inc., New York State Geological Survey, Ohio State Geological Survey, Pennsylvania Bureau of Topographic & Geologic Survey, West
Virginia Geological & Economic Survey, and U.S. Geological Survey
Note: Map includes production wells (7,894) from January 2003 through December 2014.
Marcellus shale 3D surface
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Marcellus shale 3D surface produced by Surfer based on the
structure contour map of the formation top
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=20612
based on DrillingInfo Inc., New York State Geological Survey, Ohio State Geological Survey, Pennsylvania Bureau of Topographic & Geologic Survey, West
Virginia Geological & Economic Survey, and U.S. Geological Survey
Note: Map includes production wells from January 2003 through December 2014.
Marcellus formation
Monthly Natural Gas Production
16
billion cubic feet per day
14
12
15.2
Bcf/D
Marcellus formation
10
8
April 2015
6
4
2
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
 > 37% of shale gas production
 > 18% of total dry natural gas production in the US
2013
2014
2015
Bcf/D
Initial Wellhead Yields (liquid-to-gas ratios, bbl/MMcf) of Marcellus wells
Different Thermal maturity characteristics
Jan 2003-Dec 2014
Vitrinite reflectance (Ro) range:
Southwestern area: 1.0-2.8 % Ro (dry gas window
and a combination gas-gas condensate play)
Northeastern area: 2.0-3.1% Ro (dry gas window)
Wellhead Yields (liquid-to-gas ratios, bbl/MMcf)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=20612 , based on DrillingInfo Inc.
Note: EIA calculates the initial Yield for each well (7,894) using the second through fourth contiguous months of liquid and/or gas production. Yields are
expressed as per barrel per million cubic feet (bbl/MMcf). The first month of production may not represent full production and thus is not included in the
initial Yield calculation.
Cumulative Production (Mcf) of Marcellus wells
Jan 2003-Dec 2014
Jan 2003-Feb 2015
Well cumulative production, Mcf
West Virginia
Kentucky
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=20612 , based on DrillingInfo Inc.
and IHS Inc.
Future steps: Multivariate analysis: inputs to resource assessment
and production forecast
• Well logs (IHS, States)
- Depth
- Thickness
- Porosity
- Total organic carbon
• Operator reports (DI, IHS)
- Shut in Pressure
- Bottom Hole Temperature
- Production data
- Well completion
• Previous research and Core
data where available
- Thermal maturity
- Kerogen content
- Permeability
1. Build play model
2. Address uncertainty in
reservoir property
estimates and resource
assessment
3. Identify how formation
properties affect Decline
curves and recovery
factors (geological
dependencies)
EIA Online Maps
http://www.eia.gov/pub/oil_gas/natural_gas/analysis_publications/maps/maps.htm
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Acknowledgment
The authors thank State Agencies for data sharing and expert opinion
Kristin Carter of Pennsylvania Bureau of Topographic & Geologic Survey
Susan Pool and Phil Dinterman of West Virginia Geological & Economic
Survey
Ron Riley and Matt Erenpreiss of Ohio State Geological Survey
James Leone of New York State Geological Survey
The authors are grateful to EIA colleagues for peer-reviews and suggestions
Jim O’Sullivan, Barbara Mariner–Volpe, Jim Kendell, Troy Cook, Jack Perrin,
John Staub, Aloulou Faouzi, and Shirley Neff
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis
www.eia.gov
Thank you!
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis
www.eia.gov
Questions?
AAPG 2015 Annual Convention & Exhibition
May 31-June 3, 2015, Denver, Colorado
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis
www.eia.gov
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Rn ~'r F,
St ... t igr a ~ hy.1 "n [>I"tr" phy<ir:< "f Ihp Mi ~ nlp [)F"" nian hbd, <h" l.. inl .. ", .ll in W<"<I Vi rgini" :1I1n <n ut hwp<t
J>~ M<y l\"ni~ , 'fln IPr ~n"" pr[)(ppdinll', ",,\PI, ;lI1 nlu l roo·.'<"l1I il)l1 " .. , hihili lm, O.. n·"". (0, )01 0 . i,'J ail , hi .. ' 1'
!Itt 0 :!fwww .~~d r\;l14< . dd i .wv~r1.wlor/~IJ~lI i~1>/o<.lII2Q 101.1" IUd II~ b ll ,H,t;,{",I~ b QY~aHJ I,
M. "n n C,,,, T.,
~0 1O,
(.;rlpr, K.M , H,;r ~p r, I A • " h mid, K.\'1 , Knsl .. lni<, I., )0 11, Ilnm n'.·.. nl ir>na l " 01"'01a,;< rf', n Llrr .-s in Pf'nn<yh,,,n i:1: TIl<" harh lnry of Ih ..
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US G e n lnRi r ~ 1 s. ml ~y Ilulk>hn , v. 1'109, p. Ml·M I6
ok ", in !J" W" ROC ll , J. 8 " .m u W.II ",.." L. G.. 1')93,
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l A, Swele y, (S , ~ epet<ki , n .. ond H:>yb:l . D.O., 1012, Th e'm ~1 moturily mo p of Devo nian , hale io t he lIIino;s , Michi1l" n, and
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"'"V1",'
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00.1 n .. ·mnio n ,nch nl th .. Appal,l eh;,ln !l,,<in: A m"jnr ,pvi ";" n nf I I.""~ Map 1----'l17-f l" in3 n ~'" " Jh" " f"r.. cnllpCT;"n< ' U.~ "i"Ol"g k J I
SlIr.,<"y <,r i ~ n lili ~ Invp <ti ~~T i"n' M"p ] (J()f;, n n ~ CT1· ROM . ,\v~i l" hi.. '1 ' hll p:J/pLlh<.LI'g<.gllv!<imlln06{.
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U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis
www.eia.gov