Number 491
July-August 2012
Population
Version
française
& Societies
Africa, a young but ageing continent
Valérie Golaz*, Laurent Nowik**, Muriel Sajoux**
As life expectancy increases and fertility declines, Africa faces the prospect of population ageing. Using
recent projections, Valérie Golaz, Laurent Nowik and Muriel Sajoux explain how African demography
is likely to evolve between now and 2050, and explore the challenges of ageing on a continent where
welfare provision for older adults is very limited.
[1], just 5.5% of the African population is aged 60 and
over. The proportion is double in Asia (9.9%) and in
Latin America (10.0%), and four times higher in the
most developed countries (18.6% in North America
and 21.7% in Europe). It might seem a bit premature
to worry about population ageing in Africa therefore.
Yet the process has already begun, and should progress
at a rapid pace (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Two examples of expected population
ageing in Africa.
Estimates for 2010 and median scenario for 2050
Age
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Algeria- 2010
Algeria - 2050
60 and over: 2.4 million (6.8%)
Median age: 26.2 years
60 and over: 12.2 million (26.2%)
Median age: 42.0 years
Male
80
70
60
50
40
Age
100
90
1
0
1
Population (millions)
10
0
2
2
Female
1
0
1
Population (millions)
Ethiopia - 2010
Ethiopia - 2050
60 and over: 4.3 million (5.2%)
Median age: 18.7 years
60 and over: 17.7 million (12.2%)
Median age: 32.5 years
Male
Female
Age
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
30
20
10
0
6
Male
30
20
Young countries faced with rapid ageing
* Institut national d’études démographiques – IInstitut de recherche
pour le développement, UMR 196 Ceped
** Université de Tours, UMR Citeres 7324
Female
30
20
10
0
2
Africa is a continent where the proportion of young
people is very high: the under-15s represent 40% of the
total population, versus 27% worldwide. In Niger, half
the population is below age 15, while older adults (in
this article, persons aged 60 and over) account for just
4% of the total. Tunisia, by contrast, with “just” 23% of
under-15s, has Africa’s highest proportion of older adults
(10%), ahead of other Southern countries such as Mexico
(9%) or Indonesia (8%). Over the next forty years, the
proportion of over-60s is expected to double in many
African countries if fertility continues to decline at its
Age
100
90
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Population (millions)
10
0
6
Male
2
Female
INED 024A112
According to United Nations data published in 2010
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Population (millions)
Algeria, like the other countries of the Maghreb will experience rapid
population ageing over the next 40 years. In 2050, the median age in
Algeria (age which divides the population into two numerically equal
halves: the younger half and the older half) will be close to that of
Japan today (which has the world’s highest median age). The median
age in Ethiopia, whose fertility decline began more recently, will be
multiplied by 1.7 between 2010 and 2050, but will remain below that
of Algeria while including a larger number of persons aged over 60.
Source: [1]
(V. Golaz et al., Population and Societies, no.491, INED, July-August 2012)
number 491 • July-August 2012 • Population & Societies • Monthly bulletin of the French National Institut for Demographic Studies
www.ined.fr
Africa, a young but ageing continent
Figure 2. Cartograms of the population aged 60 and over in 2010 and 2050
2050
2010
Sweden
Sweden
Russia
Russia
Netherlands
Poland
United
Kingdom
Romania
Iran
Iran
Romania
Turkey
Spain
Pakistan
France
Pakistan
Italy
Ukraine
Germany
United
Kingdom
France
Poland
Netherlands
Ukraine
Germany
Turkey
Italy
India
Iraq
Spain
53
5
4 3
1
8
14
18
23
21
India
26
28
32
5
33
4
3
2
34
53
38
41
50
44 45
9
10
11
49
51
52
7
8
6
1
Saudi
Arabia
17
16
15
24
22 23
25
21
14 18
12
26
13
48
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
Egypt
Libya
Tunisia
Algeria
Morocco
Western Sahara
Mauritania
Senegal
Gambia
Guinea-Bissau
Guinea
Sierra Leone
Liberia
Côte d'Ivoire
Burkina Faso
Mali
Niger
Ghana
Togo
Benin
Nigeria
Chad
Sudan
Erithrea
Djibouti
Ethiopia
Central African Rep.
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
Cameroon
Equatorial Guinea
Gabon
Congo
Dem. Rep. of Congo
Uganda
Kenya
Somalia
Rwanda
Burundi
Tanzania
Malawi
Zambia
Angola
Namibia
Botswana
Zimbabwe
Mozambique
Swaziland
Lesotho
South Africa
Madagascar
Comoros
Réunion
Mauritius
Cape Verde
19
Percentage
population aged
60 and above
number 491 • July-August 2012 • Population & Societies •
30
31
33
29
32
34
36
37
Below 5
5-8
38
8-12
41
40
12-20
Above 20
42
43
The surface areas
of the countries
are proportional to
their population
aged 60 and over
10,000
1,000
current rate (Figure 2), to levels ranging from below 5%
(Zambia, Niger) to almost 30% (Tunisia, Mauritius). This
demographic ageing will occur much faster than in the
developed countries [2].
Moreover, the absolute number of older adults is set
to increase four-fold in Africa between 2010 and 2050,
from 56 to 215 million, almost the same number as in
Europe (241 million). Likewise, the number of over-80s
in Africa should increase to 22.5 million, five times more
than today. The cartograms of Figure 2 show the
demographic evolution of African countries and their
growing similarity with European countries in terms
of numbers of older adults.
2
35
28 27
20
50
39
44
45
49
46
52
51
47
48
Source: United Nations [1]:
Estimates for 2010 and
median scenario for 2050
INED
© D. Andrieu, MSH Val de Loire, 05/2012. 025A12
(V. Golaz et al., Population and Societies, no.491, INED, July-August 2012)
Generally low levels of pension coverage
How would older adults live in Africa tomorrow if social
protection in old age was still organized as it is today? For
the vast majority of Africans, there are still no old-age
pensions comparable to those of Northern countries. In
many countries, only civil servants and employees of large
private companies are covered, and pension recipients
represent only a small fraction of the total elder population
(Figure 3). Over the continent as a whole, fewer than 10%
of older adults can claim a pension, with major variations
from one country to the next [3], and national averages
conceal major social geographic and gender disparities.
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Africa, a young but ageing continent
Figure 3. Proportion of the elder population*
receiving a retirement or old-age pension,
circa 2005** (%)
INED
026A12
Tunisia
Algeria
Northern Africa
Morocco
Sudan
Senegal
Côte d’Ivoire
Western Africa
Mauritania
Niger
Ghana
Togo
Guinea
Gambia
Benin
Burkina Faso
Sierra Leone
Mauritius
Mozambique
Rwanda
Eastern Africa
Djibouti
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Burundi
welfare payments) are not always sufficient to maintain
a decent standard of living (1). Non-contributory pensions
are sometimes very low (below 10 USD per month in
Uganda, for example), and contributory pensions likewise,
due to insufficient contribution years. For this reason,
men and women in Africa often carry on working until
an advanced age, generally as long as their health permits
[4]. In Senegal, more than a third of older adults are still
in employment [5], while in Congo (Brazzaville), the
proportion is over a half. In Namibia, where the proportion
of older adults receiving a pension is high, but where the
level of the universal pension is quite low, more than 30%
of the over-65s still have a paid occupation [3]. When
pensions are inadequate, older adults who can no longer
work must rely on their family network. But in years to
come, families may not have the means to care for elderly
or dependent relatives if they are not supported by
appropriate public policy measures. Access to healthcare
is a particular problem for many older adults in Africa.
Tanzania
Uganda
Congo
Limited healthcare coverage
for many older people
Central Africa
Dem. Rep. of Congo
Cameroon
Chad
Southern Africa
South Africa
Southern
Lesotho
0
20
40
60
80
100
%
Notes: * The population considered includes persons aged 60 and
over, and in some cases aged 65 and over, depending on the legal
retirement age in the country concerned.
** Most recent year for which data are available in each country. Data
are missing for certain countries (Kenya, Ethiopia…)
In countries with a well-established welfare system and a relatively
large formal economy, the coverage rate (share of pensioners among
total elder population) may reach 30-50% (as in Algeria and Tunisia).
The highest rates (above 80%) are observed in countries which have
introduced universal pension systems (Lesotho, Mauritius and
Namibia) or means-tested old-age pensions (South Africa) in
association with contributory systems (in which pensions are based
on past contributions). However, in the great majority of African
countries, the proportion of old people covered by pension schemes
is very small. The lowest coverage rates (below 1%) are in Uganda
and Sierra Leone.
Source: [3]
(V. Golaz et al., Population and Societies, no.491, INED, July-August 2012)
In Morocco, for example, while 16% of the over-60s
receive a retirement pension, only 3% of women in this
age group are pension recipients, compared with 30% of
men [4]. In most countries, urban-rural disparities are also
very large.
Pension coverage is much higher in countries which
have introduced non-contributory pension systems, as is
the case in southern Africa and Mauritius. Similar systems
are also being set up in eastern Africa, in Kenya and
Uganda. However, pensions (or minimum old-age
number 491 • July-August 2012 • Population & Societies •
Although health needs increase in old age, the vast
majority of older adults in Africa have no healthcare
coverage. In Morocco for example, only 13% of over-60s
are covered, with large disparities by gender (8% of older
women versus 18% of older men) and by place of
residence (22% in urban areas and 3% in rural areas) [4].
In Senegal, 70% of older persons have no health
coverage. Even when health costs are partially
reimbursed, out-of-pocket expenses may still be high
relative to the incomes of the individuals concerned and
their families. In several countries, the public healthcare
system provides certain services free of charge, but it
may still be difficult for older adults to access them. All
in all, income remains a key determinant of access to
healthcare for older adults in Africa [6].
New intergenerational relationships
Although Africa is politically and culturally diverse,
major social and economic changes are taking place
across the continent and affecting family organization.
(1) Although studies have shown that receiving an old-age pension not
only reduces the poverty of the household, but also enables the family
to better satisfy its basic needs, notably in terms of healthcare.
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3
Africa, a young but ageing continent
Everywhere, the younger generations are striving for
greater emancipation from their elders, and older
adults, while still respected by their families, enjoy less
social esteem than in the past. These processes are
challenging the intergenerational solidarity that
underpins the social contract in Africa, with adverse
effects on the older generations. In rural areas,
gerontocratic traditions are weakening in a context of
changing lifestyles. With the growing scarcity of land
and the lure of higher incomes, young people are
turning away from agriculture and heading into the
towns and cities, or even abroad. In urban areas, where
the development of a market economy has transformed
social practices, living conditions are radically different
from those of the countryside. Dwellings are smaller
and more expensive, female wage employment is
growing, and better-off parents stretch their family
budget to invest in their children’s future by enrolling
them in expensive private schools. The city may also
be synonymous with poverty and unemployment.
Even young graduates struggle to achieve financial
autonomy, and are often obliged to delay union
formation and entry into parenthood.
A necessary balance
between different forms of solidarity
In a context of demographic change and evolving ways
of life, families will no longer be able to meet the
specific needs of elders without outside assistance and
support. African countries will face the dual challenge
of ensuring adequate funding for the current social
welfare system for older adults while extending
coverage to a larger share of the population. Some
countries have already implemented such policies. For
example, in the field of health, the Régime d’Assistance
Médicale being set up in Morocco and the Plan Sésame
launched in Senegal in 2006 should both help to lower
the financial burden of healthcare for older persons.
Other initiatives to introduce universal old-age
pensions have been taken in eastern Africa. Rather than
weakening family bonds, they should provide a means
to maintain intergenerational solidarity.
The quest for greater complementarity between
public and private solidarity must be based on a
strengthening of welfare protection systems across all
age groups. While persons who will be “old” in 2050
have already been born, the way in which they live
their old age (in terms of social and economic capital
and health status) will depend on what happens over
the next forty years. Action must be taken as of now
to prepare African society for future population ageing
by improving access to education, employment and
health. The efforts required to develop social welfare
systems must be seen as a social investment and not
simply a cost [7].
REFERENCES
[1] United Nations, 2011 – Population Division, World Population
Prospects: The 2010 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/
[2] Gilles Pison, 2009 – “Population ageing will be faster in the
South than in the North”, Population and Societies, 457, INED, 4 p.
[3] International Labour Office, 2010 – World Social Security Report
2010/11: Providing Coverage in Times of Crisis and Beyond, Geneva,
ILO, 299 p., www.ilo.org
[4] Philippe Antoine and Valérie Golaz (eds.), 2010 –“Vieillir au
Sud: une grande variété de situations”, Autrepart, 53.
[5] William Molmy, Muriel Sajoux and Laurent Nowik (coord.)
2011 – Actes du colloque international de Meknès: “Vieillissement
de la population dans les pays du Sud. Famille, conditions de vie,
solidarités publiques et privées...”, Paris, Les Numériques du CEPED,
http://www.ceped.org/cdrom/meknes
[6] HelpAge International, 2004 – Age and Security: How Social
Pensions Can Deliver Effective Aid to Poor Older People and their
Families, 52 p.
[7] Gøsta Esping-Andersen, with Bruno Palier, 2008 – Trois leçons
sur l’État-providence, Paris, La République des idées, Seuil, 138 p.
ABSTRACT
The countries of Africa have young populations today,
but progress in life expectancy and the sharp drop in
birth rates will lead to population ageing. This change
will be incomparably faster than the slow ageing
process observed in developed countries in the
nineteenth and twentieth centuries: by 2050, the
number of persons aged 60 and over will increase
four-fold in Africa, raising yet another social challenge
for the continent. At present, old persons in Africa are
supported primarily through private solidarity. In the
future, it will be increasingly difficult for families to
meet the special needs of growing numbers of older
adults unless public policies can provide the necessary
backup.
This issue and all Population & Societies back issues are available online at http://www.ined.fr/en/resources_documentation/publications/pop_soc/
No. 491 • July-August 2012 • Population & Societies • Monthly bulletin of the French National Institute for Demographic Studies
www.ined.fr
Director of Publications: C. Cases – Editor-in-chief: G. Pison – Editorial assistant: M.-P. Reydet – Translator: C. Dutreuilh – Maquette : I. Brianchon – D.L. 3nd quarter 2012 • ISSN 0184 77 83
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