.
REPORT AUGUST 2014

A Difficult Road Ahead: Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Kip Beckman, Daniel Fields, and Matthew Stewart
Preface
The Conference Board of Canada expects Canada’s provinces and territories to record a combined budget deficit of $16.1 billion in fiscal year 2013–14. Weaker economic growth, slowing potential output, and slower increases in transfers from the federal government will make it difficult for the provinces and territories to balance their books over the long term while at same time maintaining adequate funding for health care and other social programs.
This report considers three spending scenarios—the Status Quo Scenario , the Low Health Scenario , and the What’s Possible Scenario —in an effort to gain insights into the challenges the provincial and territorial governments will experience in trying to balance their budgets in the face of an aging population.
To cite this report: Beckman, Kip, Daniel Fields, and Matthew Stewart. A Difficult Road Ahead:
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects . Ottawa: The Conference Board of Canada, 2014.
©2014 The Conference Board of Canada*
Published in Canada | All rights reserved | Agreement No. 40063028 | *Incorporated as AERIC Inc.
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Tel.: 613-526-3280 or 1-866-711-2262 E-mail: accessibility@conferenceboard.ca
® The Conference Board of Canada and the torch logo are registered trademarks of The Conference
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i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1
Chapter 1
Introduction
Chapter 2
5 Long-Term Economic Outlook
7 Demographic Assumptions
10 Potential Output
Chapter 3
14 Demand for Public Services and Canada’s Fiscal Prospects
16 Forecasting Health Information
18 Education
20
Public Accounts Projections
Chapter 4
26 Spending Scenarios and Results
28 Federal Government Outlook—From Deficit to Surplus
30 Provincial Government Outlook
30 Maintaining the Status Quo on Health
33 The Low Health Scenario
34 What’s Possible
Chapter 5
36 The Economic Impact of Changes to Old Age Security
Chapter 6
42 Conclusion
48
Appendix A
Bibliography
Appendix B
49 Detailed Results of the Analysis

This report was prepared by The Conference Board of Canada.
The research was conducted by Matthew Stewart, Daniel Fields, and Kip Beckman under the direction of Pedro Antunes, Deputy
Chief Economist of The Conference Board of Canada.
We would like to thank Russell Mellett from the British Columbia
Department of Finance, Stephen Laurent from the Ontario Ministry of Finance, and Loretta O’Connor from the Council of the Federation
Secretariat for their very helpful comments and suggestions.
This study was made possible through funding provided by the Council of the Federation Secretariat. However, the findings and conclusions of this report are entirely those of The Conference Board of Canada.
Any errors and omissions in fact or interpretation remain the sole responsibility of The Conference Board of Canada.

At a Glance
•
We expect Canada’s provinces and territories to record a combined budget deficit of $16.1 billion in fiscal year 2013–14. Our analysis reveals that balancing budgets will be a challenging task.
•
This report considers three spending scenarios—the Status Quo Scenario , the Low Health Scenario , and the What’s Possible Scenario —in an effort to gain insights into the challenges the provincial and territorial governments will experience in trying to balance their budgets in the face of an aging population.
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A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
But even after provincial budgets are balanced, slower growth in revenues over the long term means the provinces will have to continue to tightly control spending on health care and education to maintain balance. An aging population will hamper economic growth while at the same time add pressure to health care costs. The baby-boom cohort is exiting the labour force, a trend that will continue for another 20 years.
This will slow the pace of growth in economic potential and limit the growth in revenues available to governments in Canada. Additionally, the provinces and territories will experience slower growth in transfers from the federal government compared with the last 10 years. Over the long term, our aging baby boomers will increasingly demand more from our health care system—a situation that will make funding of health care, education, and other social programs difficult for most provincial and territorial governments.
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ii

Executive Summary | The Conference Board of Canada
On the other hand, the federal government is in a much better fiscal situation. Using the Conference Board’s projections for inflation, demographics, and nominal GDP, as well as the latest program spending plans in the federal budget, we project that the federal government will achieve a budget surplus in 2015–16 in line with the latest federal projections. Given our assumption of no new spending initiatives or major tax changes, the surplus is expected to remain relatively steady until the end of the decade. It will then grow substantially throughout the remaining forecast period as surpluses are directed to the debt resulting in substantially lower interest payments. As the effect of lower debt payments compound, the federal surplus is expected to reach
$109.8 billion in 2034–35.
The analysis is founded on an estimate of Canada’s growth potential, or the level of sustainable real economic growth (i.e., growth adjusted for inflation). The estimate of potential economic growth is based on three principal components of growth: the number of available workers; the stock of productive capital; and the efficiency with which capital and labour mix to produce output (productivity). Over the longer term, potential output growth will be held back by slow labour force growth, brought on by the retirement of the large baby-boom cohort. Even with solid investment in capital and better productivity growth, our aging population will reduce the country’s economic growth prospects, which in turn will limit the outlook for government revenue growth. Our estimate for Canada’s potential economic growth averages just 1.9 per cent annually over the long term, which will translate into lower growth for government revenues. Before the recession of 2008–09, potential output was expanding at an annual pace of 2.5 per cent.
We then consider three spending scenarios in an effort to gain insights into the challenges the provincial and territorial governments will face in trying to balance their budgets in the face of an aging population. Each scenario uses the same economic growth outlook—thus, the taxable base for government revenues is also unchanged across scenarios.
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A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
The provincial and territorial economies are expected to continue to recover slowly from the effects of the recession of 2008–09 and to grow thereafter in line with our estimates of potential output. Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to grow in nominal terms (i.e., real economic growth plus inflation) at an average annual pace of just under 4 per cent over the 2013–35 forecast period. Since nominal GDP growth sets the broad revenue base that is available to government, success in rebalancing provincial and territorial books will hinge on the government’s ability to constrain overall spending growth and/or raise additional revenues until budgets are balanced. Afterward, it will be crucial to keep spending growth close to 4 per cent—in line with nominal GDP growth.
In the first scenario (the Status Quo Scenario ), the provinces continue to maintain growth in health care and education as they have done in recent years. This scenario highlights the size of the adjustment required for provinces. Since 1980–81, health care spending, excluding the effects of inflation and population growth, has increased at an annual rate of 2 per cent. In the Status Quo Scenario , health care spending
(excluding the effects of inflation and population growth) is projected to grow at 1.7 per cent annually, similar to the growth seen over the last
32 years. Of this, 1 percentage point is due to higher costs related to the aging population, while 0.7 per cent is due to increased access or continued improvements in the system. Including population increases and inflation, health care spending is projected to increase at an average annual pace of 5.2 per cent over the forecast period. Given this projected growth, total spending on health care for the provinces and territories will reach a level of $397 billion by 2034–35, up from $137 billion in 2013–14.
In the Status Quo Scenario , spending on social services is expected to move in line with inflation and population growth. Additionally, spending on education is forecast to increase by projected enrolment, inflation, and a small increase in per-student funding at the elementary-secondary level (based on historical trends). It is assumed that there will not be
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iv

Executive Summary | The Conference Board of Canada
From the Status
Quo Scenario , it is clear that the provinces need to change their health care funding and focus on reducing their substantial deficit.
an increase in real per-student funding for post-secondary education, however. Other program expenditures are projected to grow in line with inflation and population growth.
The provinces and territories started running combined deficits when the recession began in 2008 as a result of weaker revenue growth and large stimulus packages. Due mainly to the huge expenditures required to fund health care, along with large current deficits and increasing debt service costs, combined deficits will continue to increase over the entire forecast period in this scenario. By 2034–35, the combined deficit will be $171.6 billion, up from $16.1 billion in 2013–14. A significant amount of this deficit is due to rising interest payments on existing debt levels. However, even excluding the effect of debt payment, the current operating surplus (revenues minus expenditures) is expected to deteriorate from its current $9.2 billion surplus to a $47 billion deficit by the end of the forecast period. From this scenario, it is clear that the provinces will have to change the way they fund health care and focus on reducing their substantial deficit before letting the vicious spiral of rising debt and rising debt financing costs get out of control.
In the second scenario (the Low Health Scenario ), we explore whether freezing real age-adjusted per-person spending on health care and real per-student spending on education is enough to allow the provinces to balance their books. In this scenario, we keep real per capita spending on health care and education constant over the forecast period. This implies that health care and education spending will increase only as a result of population growth and changes in demographic composition.
Holding real per capita spending constant implies that provincial health care systems must make efficiency gains or at least spend money more efficiently to attain any improvement in health outcomes. Real spending increases associated with new products or services, new drugs or innovations, or increased utilization—all factors that have driven real health care costs higher in the last 30 years—are not accounted for over the forecast period in this scenario.
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A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
The results for the Low Health Scenario differ sharply from those for the Status Quo Scenario . Constant real per capita spending on health care and education over the forecast period will lead to significantly lower health care and education expenditures compared with the Status
Quo Scenario . Health care spending will increase at an average annual pace of 4.4 per cent over the forecast period versus 5.1 per cent in the
Status Quo Scenario . By 2034–35, total spending on health care will be $345 billion compared with $397 billion in the final year of the Status
Quo Scenario . Education spending will be $160 billion compared with
$178 billion in the Status Quo Scenario . Not surprisingly, the fiscal deficit for the provinces and territories is much better in this scenario, given lower expenditures on health care and education. Although the operating surplus (which excludes the effect of interest payments) improves over the forecast period, the large starting deficit and rising interest rates prevent the collective provinces from making any improvement on their overall deficit. In fact, in the Low Health Scenario , the combined deficit of the provinces and territories reaches $60.9 billion by the end of the forecast period—entirely the result of spiralling debt costs. From this scenario, it is clear that the quicker the provinces can get a handle on their large deficits the more funding they will have for health care in the long run.
The Low Health Scenario incorporates assumptions about more efficient health care delivery that may be difficult to attain. While provincial and territorial governments are exploring new ways to deliver health care to
Canadians, it will be challenging, given an aging population, to generate the gains in efficiency in the health care system to keep real per capita spending on health care constant without sacrificing quality over the long term.
The third scenario (the What’s Possible Scenario ) is perhaps the most interesting. This scenario considers what the provinces would have to do to balance their books through the medium term. Then, assuming that they are successful, we estimate what growth in health care (and other programs) is sustainable over the long term. Our projections conclude that in order to balance their books without additional taxes or transfers,
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vi

Executive Summary | The Conference Board of Canada
This report examines the implications of the federal government’s increase in age
(from 65 years to 67 years) for
OAS eligibility.
the provinces and territories will have to freeze real age-adjusted per capita health, education, and social service spending and make sharp cuts to other program spending over the medium term. According to our analysis, even with substantially reduced health and education spending compared with the last 10 years, the provinces will have to cut 12.2 per cent from other program spending, or $8.5 billion—although some of this could be made up in higher taxes. If they succeed, they will balance their books in 2017–18. Once their books are balanced, the provinces will have additional resources to direct to health care and will be able to afford real per capita increases. However, because of slower expected revenue growth due to an aging population, these real per capita increases will have to be substantially lower than those observed over recent history. According to our estimates, once their books are balanced, the provinces will be able to afford to increase real per capita spending on health care by 1.3 per cent per year. Of that, aging of the population will absorb the majority of the increase (1 per cent per year), leaving just 0.3 percentage points per year for improvements in access.
The What’s Possible Scenario shows that without additional funding in the form of either higher taxes or transfers from the federal government, even after they balance their books, the provinces and territories will need to find significant annual productivity improvements in the delivery of health care if they want to continue to offer the level of health care
Canadians have come to expect. Otherwise, provincial and territorial governments will have to juggle the undesirable options of higher taxes, significant cuts in other program spending, increased wait times, or rationing of care.
In addition to the three scenarios outlined above, we also examined the implications of the federal government returning to its previous policy concerning Old Age Security (OAS) where people could begin collecting benefits at age 65. The federal government recently increased the age of eligibility to 67 from 65 years of age, starting in 2023. The analysis reveals that all else being constant, the provinces and territories would incur lower deficits if the federal government went back to the old
OAS system where people could collect benefits at age 65. A return to the lower eligibility would lead to higher consumer spending as senior
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A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects citizens could collect OAS at an earlier age and this additional spending would increase GDP growth in Canada. Higher economic growth would generate additional tax revenue and lower welfare payments for the provinces and territories. This development would improve the combined provincial and territorial fiscal position over the forecast period.
However, while combined fiscal and territorial deficits would improve following a return to a lower age eligibility for OAS, the same would not be true at the federal level. Projected fiscal surpluses would be lower for the federal government after 2023, due to the higher OAS payments required to fund the larger number of Canadians who could collect
OAS if the age for eligibility is lowered to 65 from 67.
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viii

Chapter Summary
•
We expect Canada’s provincial governments to publish a combined deficit of $16.1 billion in 2013–14, nearly identical to last year’s number.
•
Demand for health care will rise sharply over the forecast period, due to an aging population.
•
Weaker economic growth, slowing potential output, and slower increases in transfers from the federal government will make it difficult for the provinces and territories to balance their books over the long term while at same time maintaining adequate funding for health care and other social programs.
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A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Table 1
Surplus/Deficit by Province in 2013–14
($ millions; per cent of GDP)
Newfoundland and Labrador
Prince Edward Island
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
Quebec
Ontario
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
Alberta
British Columbia
Yukon
Northwest Territories
Nunavut
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; provincial budgets.
Surplus
–349
–52
–562
–564
–3,100
–11,299
–432
7
–335
175
32
130
–14
Share of GDP
–0.9
–0.9
–1.4
–1.8
–0.9
–1.6
–0.7
0.0
–0.1
0.1
1.2
2.7
–0.6
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Chapter 1 | The Conference Board of Canada
Canada’s aging population will result in weaker economic growth over the long term and less revenue for governments to fund a variety of different programs. As the population ages, the federal government will have to ramp up spending on programs such as Old Age Security
(OAS)—although this will be somewhat mitigated by recently announced changes. At the same time, the provinces and territories will have to set aside more revenue to meet the health care needs of an aging population. The combination of lower revenues and rising health care expenditures will make it challenging for the provinces and territories to balance their books.
This report helps shed light on the fiscal challenges for Canada’s provinces and territories in two ways. First, it provides an estimate of potential (or sustainable) economic growth in Canada over the longer term, which determines expected revenue for the provincial and territorial governments. Second, it provides a detailed modelling of health care spending that accounts for demographic changes, trends in technology and access to services, and trends in cost drivers in these sectors, over a long-term forecast horizon. We examine three different scenarios in order to look at combined provincial and territorial budget balances over the long term in relation to rising expenditures on health care.
The analysis developed here helps to identify and quantify the fiscal challenge the provinces and territories are facing and provides tools necessary for future research, especially to evaluate policy alternatives.
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3

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
To balance the books, the provinces and territories must consider sharp increases in taxes or spending reductions on other programs.
The challenge is immense. According to our projections, Canada’s provinces and territories will post a combined budget deficit of
$16.1 billion in fiscal year 2013–14, just slightly better than budget estimates. While some politicians in Canada have promised their constituents that they plan to balance the books within a few years, our analysis reveals that this will be an extremely difficult task. Health care spending currently consumes around 40 cents of every dollar of provincial and territorial revenue and that proportion is set to rise even higher, due to an aging population that will be increasingly diagnosed with expensive chronic diseases over the long term. At the same time, growth in revenue for all levels of government to fund health care will slow down sharply over the long term as Canada’s potential economic growth weakens. Slower growth in potential output will limit the growth in revenues available to governments in Canada to fund programs such as health care. To balance the books, the provinces and territories must consider sharp increases in taxes or spending reductions on other programs. The difficulty involved in cutting other programs is that many governments in Canada have already made significant cuts in these areas and, consequently, further cuts may prove more difficult.
This report is divided into six chapters. Chapter 2 looks at Canada’s economic prospects over the long term, while Chapter 3 discusses the methodology behind the Conference Board’s models for health care and education and lays out the assumptions used to create the public accounts projections. Chapter 4 presents the spending scenarios and their results. Chapter 5 examines the economic and fiscal costs of the recent changes to OAS. Lastly, Chapter 6 presents the conclusions and implications. A series of tables containing the detailed results of the analysis are presented in Appendix B. These tables display the relevant data used for the analysis, including data on key economic indicators, public finance, demographics, health expenditures by age cohort, and public education spending per student.
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4

Chapter Summary
•
A number of factors, including Canada’s aging population and workforce, imply that real potential output will expand by less than 2 per cent per year over the forecast period.
•
Weak growth in potential output will result in sluggish growth in government revenues and make it even more challenging for the provinces and territories to fund health care and other social programs over the long term.
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A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
The long-term economic outlook for Canada was generated using the Conference Board’s proprietary model of the national economy.
This model incorporates a detailed demographic forecast, economic accounts, price block, government accounts, and the components that drive potential economic output for Canada. The national mediumterm forecast is influenced by global conditions and other economic indicators. Over the longer term, once the economy reaches its estimated potential output, it is assumed to expand at a pace consistent with potential output.
Despite exports being weak in 2013 (a result of slower-than-expected economic growth in the United States and Europe), economic prospects for Canada are looking brighter in the near term as these large economies slowly bounce back and increase spending. Merchandise exports will be the bright spot of the economy through the medium term,
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Chapter 2 | The Conference Board of Canada improving sharply in 2014, boosted by exports of machinery and primary sector production. The pickup in exports will help to stimulate business capital investment in 2014, following a disappointing performance in
2013. Real disposable income growth will remain respectable, helped along by soft inflation. Together with historically low interest rates, this will provide a stable base for consumer spending, although mounting consumer debt will restrain spending somewhat. The government sector, on the other hand, will remain in belt-tightening mode, as the public sector will contribute essentially nothing to economic growth in 2014 and 2015. With economic growth of 2.1 and 2.6 per cent in 2014 and
2015, respectively, the economy is expected to close the output gap in 2016, at which time economic growth will be governed by potential output growth.
Potential output will be characterized by slowing labour force growth brought about by an aging population. The retirement of the baby-boom cohort (those aged between 47 and 66 in 2013) will keep labour markets tight, leading to strong wage growth. This will encourage businesses to invest more in machinery and equipment. Canada’s real potential output is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 2 per cent per year over the 2015–25 period, before slowing slightly to an average of 1.9 per cent over the 2025–35 period. The key assumptions behind our outlook for Canada’s demographics and potential output are described in more detail in the following sections.
The Canadian population growth forecast is a crucial component affecting the country’s fiscal outlook over the long term. A clear understanding of the age cohorts that make up this nation is critical for comprehending the large cost pressures facing this country. These pressures include health care demand, education expenditures, pension payments, and others. The forecast takes into account the current age structure of the population, as well as assumptions about fertility and mortality rates, and immigration and emigration—all of which shape and define the demographic profile. This profile helps determine
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7

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects labour force growth and economic potential—important components in generating government revenues over the long term. These revenue projections then determine the government’s ability to handle the cost pressures facing the country and the long-term sustainability of the country’s finances.
The Canadian population is expected to grow from 35.3 million in
2013–14 to 43.6 million in 2034–35, which is an average annual growth rate of 1 per cent. (See Chart 1.)
Chart 1
Canada’s Population Rising
(millions)
Forecast
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
20
13
−1
4
14
−1
5
15
−1
6
16
−1
7
17
−1
8
18
−1
9
19
−2
0
20
−2
1
21
−2
2
22
−2
3
23
−2
4
24
−2
5
25
−2
6
26
−2
7
27
−2
8
28
−2
9
29
−3
0
30
−3
1
31
−3
2
32
−3
3
33
−3
4
34
−3
5
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
The fertility rate currently stands at an average of 1.6 children per woman of child-bearing age. This rate is expected to remain fairly stable over the forecast period—well below the replacement rate of an average of 2.1 children per woman of child-bearing age.
1 Along with the aging population, low fertility rates will dampen the population growth of
Canada over the long term. Low fertility rates, coupled with a relatively
1 The fertility rate is the average number of children who would be born to a woman over her lifetime if she were to experience the current age-specific fertility rate.
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Chapter 2 | The Conference Board of Canada small cohort of women in their child-bearing years, suggest that the number of births per 1,000 citizens will remain modest over the forecast horizon.
Mortality rates are expected to decline slightly over the forecast horizon because of improved technology and healthier lifestyles. Nonetheless, the total number of deaths per 1,000 citizens will rise significantly over the long term. This can be almost entirely attributed to Canada’s aging population, which will see its largest cohort, the baby-boom generation, approach ages where the risk of death increases. As a result of the low fertility rate and higher death rate, the annual natural population increase (births minus deaths) is forecast to fall from 135,644 in 2013–14 to 50,154 in 2034–35.
This deceleration of the natural population increase implies that we can look to immigration to become the main driver of Canada’s population growth in the future. Chart 2 illustrates projected immigration growth over the forecast period. Even with an assumption of emigration slightly increasing over the forecast period, annual net immigration is expected to increase from 260,052 in 2013–14 (accounting for 65 per cent of total population growth) to 298,387 in 2034–35 (accounting for 86 per cent of total population growth).
Chart 2
Immigration to Be Main Source of Projecred Annual
Population Growth
(immigration 1999–35, 000s)
Forecast
400
300
200
100
0
1999–0
0
01–0203–04 05–06 07–0809–10 11–1213–14 15–16 17–1819–20 21–2
2
23–24 25–2
6
27–2829–30 31–3233–34
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
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A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
The growth in
Canada’s potential output is an important concept in estimating
Canada’s future revenue-generating capacity.
The growth in Canada’s potential output is an important concept in estimating Canada’s future revenue-generating capacity. Real GDP growth, coupled with assumptions about inflation, determines the pace of growth of nominal GDP (or income) generated in Canada and provides the broadest measure for determining how much revenue the provinces and territories can generate.
Our estimate of Canada’s potential output is based on a Cobb-Douglas production function, which estimates the economy’s production capacity given its labour supply potential, its current capital stock, and the available technology. Potential labour output is estimated by projecting labour participation rates, by age and gender, based on past trends and projections of changes in the average age of retirement (which is rising).
This is combined with demographic projections, a forecast of the natural unemployment rate, and potential average hours worked to estimate
Canada’s level of potential employment. The natural unemployment rate is the lowest level of unemployment that can be sustained in the economy without creating inflation. It is estimated over time, based on various factors, such as the generosity of the employment insurance program and other social programs, and the age structure of the labour force. Potential average hours worked are estimated over time, based on past trends and the changing age structure of the labour force. The capital stock is determined simply as the capital stock at the end of the last period, plus projections of new investment, less depreciation.
The final category of potential output is total factor productivity (TFP), or technological change. Historically, TFP has been simply defined as the gain in output growth that is not accounted for by improvements and growth in labour and capital. Over the forecast period, it is assumed to grow at its historical average rate.
Due to an aging population, potential labour force growth will not keep pace with population growth. Strong population gains in the 65-and-over category will overshadow growth in the 15-to-64 population over the
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Chapter 2 | The Conference Board of Canada long term. This will cause the overall labour participation rate to decline gradually as baby boomers move progressively into older cohorts.
Cohorts aged 60 or over have a lower labour force attachment, due largely to the effects of health problems and retirement. Even though we assume labour participation rates among older cohorts will rise over the forecast horizon, this will not be enough to offset the rising number of retirements. Therefore, as a growing proportion of the Canadian population moves into the 65-and-over cohort, the overall labour force participation rate will fall abruptly. (See Chart 3.)
Chart 3
Canada’s Labour Participation Rate
(per cent)
Forecast
70
68
66
64
62
60
19
90
Q1
94
Q1
98
Q1
02
Q1
06
Q1
10
Q1
14
Q1
18
Q1
22
Q1
26
Q1
30
Q1
34
Q1
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Not only do older cohorts have lower participation rates, they are also much more likely to work part-time hours, which further reduces potential labour supply. For example, the average employed male in the 55-to-64 age cohort worked an average of 36.3 hours per week in
2013. For an employed male in the 65-and-over cohort, that number falls to 30.1 hours. Lower participation rates and fewer hours worked will be offset somewhat by continued declines in the natural rate of unemployment, driven by the increase in the average age of the labour force. Since older workers are not as likely to quit their jobs to look for
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A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects other work, the average number of unemployed workers between jobs
(frictional unemployment) will decrease as the average age of the labour force rises.
Over the long term, tight labour markets will place upward pressure on wages, which, in turn, will act as an incentive for firms to replace labour with machinery and equipment where possible. In addition to more investment, higher capacity utilization and strong corporate profits will help keep capital stock elevated over the long term. And finally, TFP growth is projected to remain in line with its recent historical performance. This will make it the main contributor to growth in potential output over the forecast period.
It is expected that potential output will expand at an annual average pace of 1.9 per cent per year between 2013–14 and 2034–35. (See Chart 4.)
This is drastically lower than the pre-recession average growth in potential output of 2.6 per cent annually over the 2000–01 to 2007–08 period. Labour is expected to contribute a very low 0.3 percentage points to potential output, while capital will add roughly 1 percentage point per year and TFP another 0.6 percentage points per year. The
2008–09 recession increased the output gap to its highest level since the 1982 recession, and it is expected to remain negative for the next several years. Despite slower-than-expected growth over the last two years, real GDP growth is still forecast to outpace potential output growth over the medium term. This will lead to a closing of the gap in
2016–17. (See Chart 5.) Over the long term, real GDP growth will align with our forecast for potential output. As such, potential output is key to our analysis of Canada’s fiscal capacity. In the next chapter, we turn to assessing the impact of Canada’s demographic forecast on demand for public services, especially demand for health care.
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Chapter 2 | The Conference Board of Canada
Chart 4
Potential Output Growth to Slow Over the Long Term, 2013–35
(percentage change)
Forecast
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
20
13
−1
4
15
−1
6
17
−1
8
19
−2
0
21
−2
2
23
−2
4
25
−2
6
27
−2
8
29
−3
0
31
−3
2
33
−3
4
Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Chart 5
Canada’s Output Gap, 2000–16
(per cent)
Forecast
2
0
−2
−4
−6
−8
20
00
Q1
01Q1 02Q1 03Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15Q1 16Q1
Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
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13

Chapter Summary
•
The Conference Board has built and maintains detailed, demographically driven public expenditure models to assess future demand for health care, education, and other public sector services.
•
These models are used to develop the different health care spending scenarios to analyze the fiscal prospects for Canada’s provinces and territories.
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Chapter 3 | The Conference Board of Canada
The Conference Board has built and maintains a detailed, demographically driven health expenditure model to assess future demand for health care. This model projects demand for provincial health care for nine components of public health. Five of these components are modelled by detailed age and gender cohorts, allowing not just for population growth, but also for changes in
Canada’s demographic composition that drive health care needs.
Specifically, hospitals, physicians, other institutions, other professionals, and drugs are each broken down for 40 separate age and gender cohorts and forecast in real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) terms. Capital investment, public health, administration, and other health spending categories are forecast on a more aggregate, total real per capita basis.
The first five categories are projected on an age and gender basis, since the changing age composition of the population plays a significant role in health care spending growth. In the remaining four categories, historical data on spending are not broken down on an age or gender basis.
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A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
To adjust health care expenditures for inflation, four price deflators were developed. First, an average wage deflator for health care was created by weighting average wage inflation among hospitals, other institutions, physicians, and other health professionals. These wage deflators were created using data from Statistics Canada’s Survey of Employment,
Payrolls and Hours.
1 The wage deflator was then projected based on its historical relationship to the overall consumer price index (CPI).
Wages are expected to be the largest source of inflation within the health sector and are projected to increase by an average of 2.8 per cent per year over the forecast period. This projection is identical to the average growth seen over the 1990 to 2013 period, although slightly below growth seen over the last 10 years.
Second, Statistics Canada’s CPI for prescribed medicines was used as the deflator for drugs. Similar to the health sector wage deflator, the drugs deflator was projected based on its historical relationship to overall inflation. However, unlike wage inflation, inflation in drug prices is projected to average just 0.9 per cent per year until 2034. Drug prices have fallen substantially over the last three years, the result of fewer new drugs coming onto market and the increased share of generic drugs.
2 Drug prices are expected to continue declining until 2016, before beginning to rise over the forecast period. Third, the government investment deflator from Statistics Canada was used as the deflator for investment in health care capital. The investment deflator is projected as a function of wages in the construction sector, raw material prices, exchange rates (to account for imported machinery), and CPI inflation.
The government investment deflator is projected to grow by 2.3 per cent over the 2013–34 period. Finally, the CPI itself was used to deflate nonwage expenditures, excluding drugs. The CPI is projected to average
2 per cent over the 2013 to 2034 period.
1 Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 281-0006; CANSIM Table 281-0039.
2 Canadian Institute for Health Information, National Health Expenditure Trends,
1975 to 2013 , 31–32.
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Chapter 3 | The Conference Board of Canada
Overall inflation in the health care sector is expected to average
2.4 per cent per year over the forecast period— identical to the previous 10 years.
Several of the categories of provincial health care spending include items that are influenced by multiple price factors. For example, hospital budgets include salaries for nurses and other professionals, spending on goods and services, and expenditures for drugs administered within the institution. Given this complexity, it was necessary to assign weights to each of the available deflators in order to generate realistic historical and forecast estimates of the deflator for each of the eight categories.
Weights were estimated based on Statistics Canada’s input-output database, 3 which provides a detailed snapshot of the industrial structure of our economy (including the public sector).
The deflator used to project hospital expenditures is based predominantly on the hospital wage deflator, since human resources represent the largest item in hospital budgets. While wages’ share of hospital spending has declined in recent years, it still averages over
60 per cent. This share is held constant over the forecast period.
Because goods, services, and pharmaceuticals are also budget items, it is necessary to account for them. In recent years, spending on drugs has accounted for about 3 per cent of hospital expenditures, and we hold this share constant as well. All other hospital expenditures are assigned growth equal to the CPI.
At 75 per cent, the salary component for the “other institutions” category is higher than that of hospitals. This category is not assigned a drug weighting because drug costs outside of hospital facilities are included in the drug component of government spending.
It should be noted that the deflator measures only the increase in a given cost over a specific period. Increases due to a shift to more costly services, increased per capita utilization of services, and new services being made available to the public are captured in the trend in real per capita expenditures. Overall inflation in the health care sector is expected to average 2.4 per cent per year over the forecast period, identical to the average growth seen over the previous 10 years. (See Table 2.)
3 Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 381-0022.
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A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Table 2
Projected Inflation in the Health Care Sector, 1981–2035
(per cent)
Date
1981–90
1990–00
2000–13
Administration
5.2
2.0
2.0
2013–35 2.0
Capital
2.9
0.9
2.3
2.3
Drugs
8.6
1.9
-0.3
0.9
Hospitals
5.5
2.3
2.6
2.5
Other institutions
5.4
2.3
2.8
2.6
Date
1981–90
1990–00
2000–13
2013–35
Other professionals
Other health expenditures
5.5
2.5
3.1
2.8
5.2
2.0
2.0
2.0
Public health Physicians
5.2
5.5
2.0
2.0
2.0
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CIHI; Statistics Canada.
2.5
3.1
2.8
Total health inflation
5.6
2.3
2.4
2.4
The Conference Board’s education model is similar to its health care model, in that it forecasts spending on a real per-student basis.
While an aging population is raising health care costs, it is having the opposite effect on education. The forecast for education spending is based on our projection of the future school-aged population as well as historical enrolment rates. In particular, we assume that real perstudent spending for elementary and secondary students in the Status
Quo Scenario will grow at a very tepid pace of 0.7 per cent per year
(which is in line with recent trends). In the other scenarios, real perstudent spending is expected to remain flat. Additionally, real spending per student for university and college students is assumed to remain constant across all three scenarios over the forecast period (also in line with recent trends). This leaves total education spending to be driven
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18

Chapter 3 | The Conference Board of Canada by demographic demand and inflation, and in the Status Quo Scenario , a small increase in per-student funding at the elementary and secondary school level.
Results from our education model simulations suggest that, after peaking in 2002–03, elementary and secondary school enrolments fell until
2011–12. From 2012–13 to 2034–35, enrolment is expected to rise by an average of 0.9 per cent per year. (See Chart 6.) In contrast, postsecondary enrolment increased over the last decade, reaching a peak in 2010–11. After that, post-secondary enrolment is expected to continue to fall slightly until 2021–22, before rebounding in the remaining years of the forecast. Projections of real spending per student are then multiplied by the corresponding forecasts for enrolment as well as inflation, to arrive at a projection for total education spending in nominal and real terms.
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
Chart 6
Elementary/Secondary and Post-Secondary Enrolment,
1980–81 to 2034–35
(millions)
Elementary/secondary
Forecast
Post-secondary
1980–81
83–8486–8789–9092–9395–9698–9901–0204–0507–0810–1113–14 16–1719–2022–2325–2628–2931–3234–35
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
A deflator was also created for the education sector, based on a methodology similar to that used for the health deflators. Historical data on average weekly earnings for educational services come from
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A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Statistics Canada’s Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours.
4 Average wages in the education sector are expected to growth by 2.7 per cent over the forecast period. Although this is considerably lower than the
3.8 per cent increase seen over the last 13 years, much of that increase was likely catch-up for the flat wages seen over the 1990s. The salary weighting for wages is based on Statistics Canada’s input-output database.
5 Wages accounted for 66 per cent of total education spending in 2012. This is maintained throughout the forecast period. The nonwage share is based on the CPI. The overall price deflator is expected to grow by an average of 2.5 per cent per year from 2013 to 2035.
This compares with 3.1 per cent annually over the last 13 years.
Forecasting Revenues at the Federal and
Provincial Levels
The Conference Board’s public accounts model for Canada is used to project the fiscal situation of the federal government and the Canadian provinces and territories as a whole, from 2013–14 to 2034–35. A key assumption is that there will be no additional tax changes other than those announced in the latest respective budgets. Government revenues at the federal and provincial levels are estimated as a function of key determinants available from the Conference Board’s long-term provincial and national economic forecasts. For instance, personal and corporate income tax revenues at both the federal and provincial levels are a function of personal income growth and corporate profits, respectively. Other income tax revenues at the federal level consist of income taxes paid by non-residents of Canada and are driven by investment and dividend income. Employment insurance revenues are a function of employment, maximum insurable earnings, and wages.
Goods and services tax revenues are based on consumer spending.
The goods and services tax is shown net of the goods and services
4 Statistics Canada, Survey of Employment, Survey and Hours .
5 Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 381-0022.
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Chapter 3 | The Conference Board of Canada
OAS is the largest category of federal government spending, representing an estimated 16.7 per cent of the total
2013–14 program spending budget.
tax credit, which is projected based on demographics. Provincial sales taxes are similarly projected based on consumption. Federal custom and import duties are a function of imports. Federal energy revenues and provincial gasoline tax revenues are a function of gasoline tax rates and real consumption of gasoline. Revenues from other excise taxes and duties—which include excise duties, the air traveller’s security charge, the softwood lumber products export charge, and other small excise taxes and duties—are assumed to grow at just 1 per cent over the forecast period. Other federal revenues include revenues from Crown corporations, which are projected to grow roughly in line with economic activity; foreign exchange revenues, which are assumed to grow roughly in line with inflation; and other non-fiscal revenues, which are projected to grow in line with inflation and population growth in the long term but will be affected by the sale of assets in the short term. Provincial tobacco tax revenues are a function of consumption of tobacco products and tobacco tax rates. Provincial property tax revenues are assumed to grow in line with inflation and population. Royalty revenues are a function of energy prices and projections for oil and natural gas production. Other provincial revenues are projected to grow in line with population and inflation growth.
Forecasting Expenditures
To complete the outlook for the federal government, we had to forecast its main expenditure categories. OAS is currently the largest category of federal government spending, representing an estimated 16.7 per cent of the total budget for program spending in 2013–14. Our forecast is based on projections of the number of recipients and the average pension, which is indexed to inflation. Our baseline projection takes into account recent changes to OAS—an increase in the age of eligibility for OAS from 65 to 67, and in the age of eligibility for the survivor allowance from 60 to 62, both taking effect in April 2023. The number of total beneficiaries will rise from 5.3 million in 2013 to 7.3 million in
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21

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
2022 (an average increase of 3.6 per cent per year). From 2023 to 2029, growth in the number of beneficiaries will slow to just 1.4 per cent per year as the new rules are phased in. Growth will then accelerate to 2.5 per cent in the final five years of the forecast. Even with the recent changes, we expect there will be 9.2 million beneficiaries by the end of the forecast period. (See Chart 7.)
Chart 7
Number of Old Age Security Beneficiaries, 2000–34
(millions)
Forecast
10
8
6
4
2
0
200
0
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CPP and OAS Annual Statistics Tables.
Employment insurance benefits are based on projections of the number of recipients of regular benefits, maternity benefits, and other benefits; average earnings; and maximum insurable earnings. The number of regular beneficiaries is projected based on projections of the number of unemployed people. The ratio of regular beneficiaries to the number of unemployed has declined substantially over the last two years, the result of an increasing number of long-term unemployed who no longer qualify for employment insurance. The ratio of regular beneficiaries to the number of unemployed is expected to increase over the forecast period as the share of long-term unemployed to total unemployed returns to its long-term average. (See Chart 8.) The number of maternity beneficiaries
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Chapter 3 | The Conference Board of Canada is based on projections of the number of births. Children’s benefits include the Canada Child Tax Benefit and the Universal Child Care
Benefit and are projected based on demographics.
Chart 8
Ratio of Regular Employment Insurance Beneficiaries to the Number of Unemployed
Forecast
55
50
45
40
35
199
7Q
1
99Q1 01Q1 03Q1 05Q1 07Q1 09Q1 11Q1 13Q1 15Q1 17Q
1
19Q
1
21Q
1
23Q
1
25Q
1
27Q
1
29Q
1
31Q
1
33Q
1
35Q
1
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Transfers to the provinces and territories are projected to increase by
3.9 per cent over the forecast period, considerably slower than the
6.6 per cent increase seen over the last 10 years. Our projections take into account recent announcements by the federal government. Despite a strong legislated annual growth of 6 per cent until 2016–17, afterwards, health transfers to other levels of government are legislated to grow more slowly—in line with a three-year moving average of nominal GDP (with a guarantee of at least 3 per cent growth). Social transfers, meanwhile, are legislated to grow by 3 per cent per year. Other health transfers are expected to be $200 million in 2013–14 and afterwards fall to zero.
Fiscal arrangements include funding for the Equalization Program and
Territorial Formula Financing (TFF) Program. Fiscal arrangements also include the offsetting category of the Youth Allowances Recovery.
Similar to health transfers, equalization payments are projected to grow in line with the three-year moving average of GDP growth. As such,
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23

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Other transfers from the federal government are expected to decline in 2014–15 as disaster assistance for Alberta comes out of the numbers.
equalization payments are expected to grow from $16.1 billion in 2013–14 to $35.7 billion by 2034–35, or an average of 3.9 per cent per year.
TFF is projected to grow in line with the projected increase in provincial spending on goods and services, adjusted for territorial population differences less fiscal capacity growth in the territories. Starting in
2014–15, transfers to Canada’s cities and communities are projected to grow by 2 per cent per year in $100-million increments. Other transfers to provinces include transitional payments, transfer protection payments, and payments under the offshore accord. Other transfers to the provinces are projected to be $500 million in 2013–14 but fall to zero by 2018–19. The final category of transfers from the federal government, Alternative Payments for Standing Programs (APSP), represent a recovery from Quebec of an additional tax point transfer and are projected to grow in line with Quebec income taxes.
Provincial health and social transfers received from the federal government equal federal expenditures on that category plus the APSP.
Provincial revenues for equalization and TFF equal federal expenditures on equalization and TFF plus $300 million in 2013–14 in other transfers related to equalization. Beyond 2013–14, all the other federal transfers are included in provincial equalization. Other transfers from the federal government are expected to decline substantially in 2014–15 as disaster assistance for Alberta comes out of the numbers. Beyond 2014–15, other transfers are expected to grow in line with population and inflation.
Projections for direct program spending are taken directly from the federal budget until 2018–19. Afterwards, direct program spending is expected to keep pace with inflation and population growth. Finally, the forecast for public debt charges is based on projections of the stock of interest-bearing debt. The interest rate on this debt moves in line with our forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates.
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Chapter 3 | The Conference Board of Canada
At the provincial level, the Conference Board’s health and education models are used to project expenditures until 2034–35. To complete the outlook for the overall provincial fiscal situation, forecasts are created for the remaining expenditure categories. Spending on social services is assumed to proceed as projected in the latest provincial budgets for 2013–14. Afterwards, spending growth is assumed to proceed in line with population growth plus inflation. Other program spending is projected to decline slightly in 2013–14, as laid out in the collective provincial budgets. Spending in this category is then assumed to grow in line with inflation and population growth in the Status Quo Scenario and the Low Health Scenario . However, in the What’s Possible Scenario , other program spending is projected to decline so the provinces can balance their books on schedule consistent with the long-term plans released by the provinces and territories. Interest payments on the public debt are projected using an implicit interest rate applied to the public debt. Changes in the implicit interest rate are tied to the Conference
Board’s outlook for interest rates. The implicit interest rate is expected remain relatively steady through the medium term and then rise moderately beginning in 2016, in line with our forecast for interest rates.
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Chapter Summary
•
If spending on health care increases at rates close to the pace recorded over the past decade, Canada’s provinces and territories will have to raise taxes to avoid deficits growing even larger.
•
To balance their books by 2017–18 without additional taxes or transfers, the provinces and territories will have to freeze real per capita health, education and social service spending and make sharp cuts to other program spending.
•
Once their books are balanced, the provinces will have limited additional resources to direct to health care.
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Chapter 4 | The Conference Board of Canada
In the Status Quo Scenario , growth in real spending on health care is based on trends that have transpired over the last 30 years. These trends are estimated from 1981 controlling for population growth, aging, and inflation. This scenario highlights the fiscal situation that will occur if the system continues as it has in the past. In the Low Health Scenario , real per capita spending on health care and education is assumed to remain constant over the forecast period. This implies that health care and education spending will increase solely as a result of population growth, changes in the demographic composition of the population, and inflation. In essence, constant real per capita spending implies that no improvements will be made to the delivery of health care services
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A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects until 2034–35. This scenario provides a lower boundary for long-term spending on health care. The What’s Possible Scenario considers what the provinces would have to do to balance their books through the medium term and then estimates what growth in health care
(and other programs) is sustainable after they balance their books.
Using the Conference Board’s projections for inflation, demographics, and nominal GDP, as well as the latest program spending plans in the federal budget, we project that the federal government will achieve a budget surplus in 2015–16 in line with the latest federal projections. Given our assumption of no new spending initiatives or major tax changes, the surplus is expected to remain relatively steady until the end of the decade and then grow substantially throughout the remaining forecast period as surpluses are directed to the debt, resulting in substantially lower interest payments. As the effect of lower debt payments compound, the federal surplus is expected to reach
$109.8 billion in 2034–35. Most categories of government spending are expected to grow well below growth in nominal GDP—the tax base of the federal government. The largest drivers of government expenditure growth, OAS, and transfers to the provinces and territories have been altered in recent years to limit their impact on the federal government’s finances.
Major transfers to persons account for close to 26 per cent of the federal government’s total budget, consisting of three categories, which all are formula-driven. Growth in employment insurance and children’s benefits are both expected to slow over the forecast period as a result of the aging population. As the economy settles at full employment, employment insurance payments will slow. Moreover, the natural rate of unemployment is expected to decline due to an aging population, as older cohorts tend to spend less time looking for other work (frictional unemployment). Growth in children’s benefit payments will also slow throughout the forecast period due to declining growth in the number
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Chapter 4 | The Conference Board of Canada
Growth in transfers to other levels of government is expected to be slower over the forecast period compared with growth over the last 10 years.
of children. The number of children aged 5 or under is expected to increase to 2.6 million in 2022, up from 2.3 million today. However, after 2022, the number of children aged 5 or under will remain constant until 2035.
OAS benefits, which currently account for 16.7 per cent of total program spending, will see substantial growth though the medium term but will slow considerably beginning in 2023–24. This is due to the recently announced plan by the federal government to increase the age of eligibility by two years, beginning in April 2023. These changes are expected to save the federal government more than $12 billion a year when they fully come into effect in 2029. Even still, the OAS benefit will remain a key driver of government expenditures and is forecast to increase to over 20 per cent of the total budget in the final year of the forecast.
Key drivers of government expenditures over the last decade— accounting for one-quarter of the federal budget—are transfers to other levels of government. However, growth is expected to be slower over the forecast period compared with growth over the last 10 years.
This slowdown can be attributed to the declining growth in the Canada
Health Transfer, which is the largest category of federal transfers. The
Canada Health Transfer will continue to grow by 6 per cent a year until
2016–17. Thereafter, growth in the transfer is legislated to slow, to align with the three-year moving average of nominal GDP. Another set of federal transfers, equalization payments, is similarly tied to the threeyear moving average of nominal GDP. Other federal transfers—including the Canada Social Transfer, TFF, and transfers to Canada’s cities and communities—are all expected to grow significantly more slowly than nominal GDP growth.
The final category of program spending is federal direct program spending, which includes wages, salaries, and departmental spending.
Our projection for direct program spending over the next five years is based on estimates from the federal government’s latest budget.
Beyond 2018–19, growth in direct program spending is assumed to reflect inflation and population growth.
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A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
When all these factors are accounted for, federal revenues are expected to rise slightly as a share of GDP over the forecast period—a result of the progressivity of the personal income tax system. On the other hand, program spending as a share of GDP is forecast to fall slightly, especially after 2023, when the changes to OAS take effect. Higher revenues and lower program spending will leave the federal government with a sizable surplus over the forecast period, which will surely come into play once the provinces and territories require more assistance to finance health care.
The projections for provincial government revenues are the same for all three scenarios. Total own-source revenues are expected to remain relatively stable as a share of GDP throughout most of the forecast due to solid growth in income tax revenues. Revenue growth will be held back by the comparatively slower growth in tobacco taxes and gasoline and fuel taxes. In addition, royalties are expected to slow over the long term, the result of slower production growth in the oil and gas sector.
In the Status Quo Scenario , adjustments are made to health care expenditures based on historical average annual per-person increases in spending. These increases reflect the adoption of more expensive drugs and technology as well as increases in the utilization of the health care system. Overall, health care spending has grown at an average annual pace of 6.1 per cent over the last 13 years. Excluding the effects of inflation and population growth, health care spending has averaged
2.6 per cent growth per year since 2000. That is somewhat higher than the average during the previous 20 years because significant cuts to health care spending were implemented in the 1990s to cope with soaring federal deficits and declining federal transfers. Since 1981, real per capita spending on health care has risen by an average of
2 per cent per year.
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Chapter 4 | The Conference Board of Canada
In 2012, average real per capita spending by the provinces and territories for all eight major health care expenditure categories and all age and gender cohorts was $3,875 (2012 dollars), compared with $3,170 in 2004.
Real per capita spending on hospitals accounted for the largest share
(at $1,583), followed by spending on physicians (at $844). Due to the aging population (older people tend to be far greater users of health care), average real spending on health care will be under constant pressure over the long term. For example, spending on males in the
70–74 age cohort is around nine times higher than spending on males in the 5–9 age cohort. By 2035, per capita spending on health care in the provinces and territories is expected to rise to $5,006 (2012 dollars), in part due to demographic forces. This represents an increase in real per capita health care spending of 1.7 per cent per year, of which roughly
1 percentage point is due to demographic composition. (See Table 3.)
Table 3
Projected Growth in Real Per-Person Health Expenditures in the
Status Quo Scenario , by Sector, 1981–2035
(per cent)
Date
1981–90
1990–00
Administration
2.7
–1.0
Capital
7.0
4.6
Drugs
6.1
4.9
Hospitals
1.4
–0.4
Other institutions
3.0
1.4
2000–13 0.6
4.0
5.8
2.3
1.2
2013–35 0.5
1.0
3.6
1.6
2.3
Date
1981–90
1990–00
2000–13
2013–35
Other professionals
Other health expenditures
–0.4
–3.4
0.0
0.8
10.2
3.4
2.1
1.5
Public health Physicians
2.2
3.3
5.2
3.8
1.5
0.1
2.6
1.1
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Insitute for Health Information.
Total health spending
2.5
0.7
2.6
1.7
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A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
In the Status Quo Scenario , health care spending increases at an average annual pace of 5.1 per cent over the forecast period. Total spending on health care for the provinces and territories will be
$396.9 billion (2012 dollars) by 2034–35, or 55 per cent of provincial and territorial government revenues. (See Chart 9.) The provinces and territories started running combined deficits when the recession began in 2008 as a result of weaker revenue growth and government stimulus packages. In part due to the huge expenditures required to fund health care, combined deficits will continue over the entire forecast period. By 2034–35, the deficit will be $171.6 billion, up from to
$16.2 billion in 2013–14. Provincial and territorial revenues are assumed to increase by 3.8 per cent annually over the forecast period and will remain less than total expenditures through 2034–35 (total revenues of $718.9 billion versus total expenditures of $894.3 billion in 2034–35).
Total expenditures are projected to increase at an average annual pace of 4.6 per cent over the forecast period.
Chart 9
Health Care Spending as a Share of Provincial Government
Revenues, by Scenario, 2004–05 to 2034–35
Status Quo Scenario
Low Health Scenario
What’s Possible Scenario
Forecast
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
20
04−
05
06−
07
08−0
9
10
−1
1
12
−1
3
14
−15
16−17 18
−19
20
−21
22
−2
3
24
−2
5
26
−2
7
28−
29
30
−3
1
32−
33
34
−3
5
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; public accounts of the provinces and territories.
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Chapter 4 | The Conference Board of Canada
The Status Quo Scenario suggests that Canadians will have to pay sharply higher taxes if they want their governments to maintain the same pattern of spending on their health care system. If Canadians don’t want to pay higher taxes to cover surging expenditures on health care, the only other option will be to cut spending on social programs and education—a difficult decision for politicians to come to grips with.
In the Low Health Scenario , real per capita spending on health care is kept constant over the forecast period. This implies that health care spending will increase only as a result of population growth and changes in demographic composition. It also implies that there will be no improvements in health care delivery associated with new products or services, new drugs or innovations, or increased utilization—all factors that have driven real health care costs higher over the last
30 years. Holding real per capita spending constant implies that there must be efficiency gains—a more effective use of dollars spent in the health care system—if there are to be improvements in health outcomes for Canadians.
The results for the Low Health Scenario differ sharply from those in the Status Quo Scenario . Constant real per capita spending over the forecast period will lead to significantly lower health care expenditures compared with the Status Quo Scenario . Health care spending will increase at an average annual pace of 4.4 per cent over the forecast period in this scenario versus 5.1 per cent in the Status Quo Scenario .
By 2034–35, total spending on health care will be $345.5 billion, compared with $396.9 billion in the Status Quo Scenario .
Not surprisingly, the fiscal deficit for the provinces and territories is much better in the Low Health Scenario , given lower expenditures on health care. In the Status Quo Scenario , deficits will increase over the entire
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33

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects forecast period, reaching a total of $179.8 billion by 2034–35. In the
Low Health Scenario , deficits will also grow over the forecast period but will be lower by 2034–35 ($60.9 billion). Spending on social services and education is kept identical in both scenarios.
The What’s Possible Scenario examines these two key questions:
How much fiscal restraint is required to balance the provincial books and what growth in health care is sustainable given the available financial resources for the provinces and territories over the long term? To balance their books without additional taxes or transfers, our projections conclude that the provinces and territories will have to freeze real age-adjusted per capita health, education, and social service spending and make sharp cuts to other program spending over the medium term. Even with substantially reduced health and education spending compared with the last 10 years, the provinces will have to cut 12.2 per cent from other program spending, or a total reduction of $8.5 billion. Once their books are balanced, the provinces will have additional resources to direct to health care and will be able to afford real per capita increases. However, because of slower expected revenue growth due to an aging population, these real per capita increases will have to be substantially lower than those observed over recent history.
According to our estimates, once their books are balanced, the provinces will be able to afford to increase real per capita spending on health care of 1.3 per cent per year. Of that, aging of the population will absorb the majority of the increase (1 per cent per year), leaving just 0.3 percentage points per year for improvements in access.
Overall, the provinces and territories will be able to increase spending on health care at an average annual pace of 4.3 per cent from 2013–14 to 2017–18. Social services will be able to increase in line with population and inflation at a pace of 3.1 per cent while education will rise in line
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34

Chapter 4 | The Conference Board of Canada with student enrolment and inflation at 2.7 per cent per year. Finally, other program spending will have to fall by 12.2 per cent between
2013–14 and 2017–18. Although this will be extremely challenging, if successful, the provinces and territories will balance their budgets in 2017–18.
After this, the provinces and territories can start to increase spending on other programs at a pace similar to the other two scenarios (around
3 per cent per year) in line with population and inflation. Education spending continues to move in line with student enrolment and inflation, with all extra resources directed toward health care. Overall, health care expenditures can rise by an average of 4.8 per cent while still maintaining the overall balance position of the provinces—considerably less than the average increases seen in recent years.
The What’s Possible Scenario highlights the challenges that provinces and territories are facing. Without additional funding (either in the form of higher taxes or larger transfers from the federal government), the provinces and territories will be required to find significant annual productivity improvements to deliver health care at a pace that
Canadians have come to expect. If efficiency gains lag, provincial and territorial governments will have to juggle the undesirable options of higher taxes, sharp cuts in other program spending, increased wait times, or the rationing of health care in order to balance the books.
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35

Chapter Summary
•
We relied on the Status Quo Scenario as a base case to analyze the impact of the federal government’s intention to increase the age of eligibility for OAS from
65 to 67 and the survivor allowance from 60 to 62.
•
Under the previous OAS rules, we project that there would have been 9.3 million beneficiaries in 2029–30, up from 5.4 million in 2013–14. Under the new rules, the number of beneficiaries is expected to be 1.1 million less in 2029–30.
•
The recent changes to OAS would lead to lower transfers to persons and, thus, lower disposable income.
•
The Conference Board model projects that the recent changes to OAS will reduce the combined provincial and territorial fiscal position by $1.6 billion in 2029–30.
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Chapter 5 | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 4
The Economic Impact of Changes to Old Age Security Summary Table
Key Components of Aggregate Demand
(2007 $ millions)
Final consumption expenditure
per cent
Household consumption expenditure
per cent
Investment
per cent
Exports of goods and services
per cent
Less: imports of goods and services
per cent
Gross domestic product at market prices**
per cent
2023–24 2025–26 2027–28 2029–30 2031–32 2033–34
–180 –1,101 –2,054 –2,699 –2,226 –1,731
–0.01
–0.07
–0.12
–0.15
–0.12
–0.09
–188
–0.02
–39
–1,189
–0.10
–366
–2,336
–0.19
–840
–3,288
–0.25
–1,291
–3,126
–0.23
–1,433
–2,876
–0.21
–1,433
–0.01
1
0.00
–67
–0.01
–193
–0.07
33
0.00
–489
–0.07
–1,021
–0.16
168
0.02
–1,106
–0.14
–1,705
–0.24
420
0.05
–1,753
–0.21
–1,866
–0.26
697
0.08
–1,928
–0.23
–1,021
–0.25
829
0.09
–1,819
–0.20
–507
–0.01
–0.05
–0.07
–0.08
–0.04
–0.02
continued…
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada.
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37

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Table 4 (cont’d)
The Economic Impact of Changes to Old Age Security Summary Table
Other Key Economic Indicators
Nominal GDP ($ millions)
per cent
Consumer Price Index (per cent)
Exchange rate (U.S./Can; per cent)
Unemployment rate (percentage point difference)
Employment (000s)
per cent
Disposable income ($ millions)
per cent
Real disposable income (2007 $ millions)
per cent
90-day treasury-bill rate (percentage point difference)
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada.
2023–24 2025–26 2027–28 2029–30 2031–32 2033–34
–267 –1,817 –4,168 –6,787 –8,144 –9,035
–0.01
–0.06
–0.13
–0.19
–0.21
–0.22
0.00
0.00
0.00
–1
–0.01
0.00
0.00
–8
–0.04
0.00
0.10
–15
–0.09
0.00
0.10
–18
–0.14
0.00
0.10
–12
–0.18
0.00
0.00
–5
0.00
–820
–0.05
–645
–0.05
–0.04
–4,056
–0.24
–2,985
–0.23
–0.07
–8,061
–0.44
–5,443
–0.40
–0.09
–12,152
–0.63
–7,449
–0.53
–0.06
–12,750
–0.61
–6,708
–0.47
–0.02
–13,166
–0.59
–6,030
–0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
To analyze the impact of these changes to OAS, we relied on the
Status Quo Scenario as a base case. In the Status Quo Scenario , the recent changes to the OAS program have been modelled in detail.
These changes were then backed out and compared against the basecase projection for selected key economic indicators.
The econometric model of the national economy embodies detailed linkages that allow us to assess the short- and medium-term economic impact of changes to OAS, as well as the potential for longer-term impacts on the economy resulting from these changes.
Under the previous OAS rules, we project that there would have been
9.3 million beneficiaries in 2029–30, up from 5.4 million in 2013–14.
Under the new rules, the number of beneficiaries is expected to be
1.1 million less in 2029–30. (See Chart 10.) This decline is expected to save the federal government $12 billion, or 12 per cent of the total program costs.
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38

Chapter 5 | The Conference Board of Canada
Chart 10
Number of Old Age Security Beneficiaries
(millions)
New rules Old rules
Forecast
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
19
90
Q1
93Q1 96Q1 99Q1 02Q1 05Q1 08Q1 11Q1 14Q1 17Q1 20Q
1
23Q1 26Q1 29Q1 32Q1 35Q1
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CPP and OAS Annual Statistics Tables.
The recent changes to OAS would lead to lower transfers to persons.
A key assumption is that the changes to OAS would not result in significant changes to the age of retirement. (See box “Measuring the Impact on Retirement.”) Consequently, these changes would lead to lower disposable income, which would result in lower consumer spending. According to our estimates, disposable income would fall by $12.1 billion, reducing nominal consumer spending by an estimated
$6.2 billion in 2029–30. Real consumer spending would be $3.3 billion less under this scenario. However, the negative impact on consumption and overall real GDP is partly mitigated by import leakages—a good portion of household spending currently goes to buying foreign goods and services, and any reduction in consumer spending also results in lower demand for imported goods.
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39

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Measuring the Impact on Retirement
We believe the recent changes to OAS will likely have a minimal effect on retirement rates. Minimizing the impact is the fact that the standard age of retirement for the Canada Pension Plan remains unchanged at 65. In addition, approximately two-thirds of contributors take the pension before turning 65.
According to labour force survey data, between the ages of 65 and 69, just
19.7 per cent of females and 31.7 per cent of males are still in the labour force.
Although we expect these rates to rise significantly over the forecast period
(to 27.4 per cent for females and 36.3 per cent for males), this has more to do with recent trends resulting from the passage of the baby boomers than the planned changes to OAS. Even if participation rates do rise in response to the change, the effect to potential output would be mitigated somewhat as workers in that age cohort work fewer hours on average. For every 1 percentage point increase in the participation rate of 65–66 year-olds by 2030 as a result of the
OAS changes, there would be almost 11,000 people added to the labour force and a permanent increase in potential output of $377 million in 2029–30.
In addition, the decline in domestic demand will lower inflationary pressures and allow the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates slightly lower. Monetary policy in the model is guided by a central bank reaction function.
1 Softer consumer spending leaves the economy below capacity, helping to ease pressure on inflation. As such, the Bank of Canada reacts to the weaker economy by running a more accommodative monetary policy. Interest rates decline modestly, by just 11 basis points at the peak, but over a relatively long period of time. This leads to a mild depreciation of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar, which stimulates export demand. At the same time, higher import prices linked to the lower value of the dollar, coupled with declines in consumption and investment, result in a significant drop in imports.
1 The Conference Board’s national model incorporates a standard Taylor-rule equation that defines the bank rate as a function of the output gap and inflation.
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40

Chapter 5 | The Conference Board of Canada
Slightly lower economic growth would reduce tax revenues for the provinces and territories. However, lower inflation also has the effect of reducing wages, partially offsetting the drop in government revenues.
In addition, according to Canada Revenue Agency data 115,000 people are collecting social assistance between the ages of 60 and
64, with average benefits of $8,000. Many of these people can be expected to stop collecting social assistance as OAS kicks in when they turn 65. According to our estimates, the changes to OAS could add 10,000 beneficiaries to social assistance and increase the average benefit for those who would still have been expected to collect benefits.
After taking account of the effect of lower inflation on social services, we estimate that the change to OAS could add $419 million to the cost of provincial social services in fiscal year 2029–30.
All in all, the Conference Board model projects that the recent changes to OAS will reduce the combined provincial and territorial fiscal position by $1.6 billion in 2029–30.
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41

Chapter Summary
•
Canada’s aging population will result in weaker economic growth over the long term and less revenue for governments to fund a variety of different programs.
•
The combination of lower revenues and rising expenditures will make it challenging for the provinces and territories to balance their books.
•
The analysis of different scenarios for OAS revealed that the changes in OAS will have an impact on the fiscal position of the provinces and territories.
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Chapter 6 | The Conference Board of Canada
In contrast, the federal government is expected to improve its fiscal prospects over time, owing primarily to its ability to control demographicdriven spending pressures. For example: increasing the age of eligibility of OAS benefits are expected to save the federal government more than
$12 billion a year when they fully come into effect in 2029; changes to the escalator of the Canada Health Transfer are expected to slow the growth of transfers to provinces and territories over the forecast period compared with growth over the last 10 years. Given our assumption of no new federal spending initiatives or major tax changes, the surplus is expected to remain relatively steady until the end of the decade and then grow substantially throughout the remaining forecast period as surpluses are directed to the debt resulting in substantially lower interest payments.
As the effect of lower debt payments compound, the federal surplus is expected to reach $109.8 billion in 2034–35. (see Chart 11).
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43

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Chart 11
Federal Government Balance, 2004–05 to 2034–35
($ billions)
Forecast
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
−20,000
−40,000
−60,000
20
04
−05
06
−07
08
−09
10
−11
12
−13
14
−15
16
−1
7
18
−19
20−2
1
22
−2
3
24
−2
5
26
−2
7
28
−2
9
30
−31
32
−3
3
34
−3
5
Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
To assess the challenges faced by governments in Canada, we estimated Canada’s economic potential over the long term. Then, three spending scenarios were built to gain insights into the difficulties that the provinces and territories will encounter in trying to rebalance their budgets, given the pressures that an aging population will put on their spending. For the scenarios considered in this analysis, the same economic outlook for Canada is used—the economy is expected to continue to recover slowly from the effects of the recession and thereafter grow in line with our estimates of potential output for Canada.
Once the output gap is closed, in around 2016, Canada’s nominal GDP is estimated to grow at an average annual rate of close to 4 per cent until the end of 2034–35. Since nominal GDP represents the broad revenue base for government, success in rebalancing the books over the long term will hinge on Canadian governments’ ability to keep overall spending growth to below this 4 per cent mark.
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Chapter 6 | The Conference Board of Canada
The Status Quo Scenario highlights the challenges that the provinces and territories face in balancing their books over the long term, given the impact of a rapidly aging population on health care spending. When spending on health care reflects the increases that have taken place over the last 30 years, the combined provinces and territories will run deficits over the entire forecast period. (See Chart 12.) In fact, the total budget deficit will soar to $172 billion by 2034–35. Growth in revenues over the long term will not be enough to cover rising expenditures, largely because of growing health care demand. The provinces and territories will have to either increase taxes or cut spending on other programs in order to balance their books over the long term. It will be extremely challenging for governments in Canada to make additional reductions in other programs such as education, since many of these programs have already undergone steep cuts over the past decade.
Chart 12
Provincial Government Balance, by Scenario, 2004–05 to 2034–35
($ billions)
Status Quo Scenario Low Health Scenario What’s Possible Scenario
Forecast
20
0
−20
−40
−60
−80
−100
−120
−140
−160
−180
2004
−0
5
05
−0
6
06
−0
7
07−0808
−0
9
09
−1
0
10
−1
1
11
−1
2
12
−1
3
13
−1
4
14
−1
5
15
−1
6
16
−1
7
17
−1
8
18
−1
9
19
−2
0
20
−2
1
21
−2
2
22
−2
3
23
−2
4
24
−2
5
25
−2
6
26
−2
7
27
−2
8
28
−2
9
29
−3
0
30
−3
1
31
−32
32
−3
3
33
−3
4
34
−3
5
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; public accounts of the provinces and territories.
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45

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
The different scenarios for
OAS revealed that the eligibility changes will have an impact on the fiscal position of the provinces and territories.
The Low Health Scenario provides a more optimistic picture for the provinces and territories, since deficits will be significantly lower over the forecast period compared with the Status Quo Scenario . However, for this scenario to occur, real per capita spending on health care must remain constant over the forecast period. This implies that health care spending will increase only as a result of population growth and changes in demographic composition. It also implies that there will be no improvements in health care delivery associated with new products or services, new drugs or innovations, or increased utilization. Holding real per capita spending constant implies that there must be efficiency gains—a more effective use of dollars spent in the health care system— if there are to be improvements in health outcomes for Canadians.
The What’s Possible Scenario answers this important question:
What growth in health care is sustainable, given available fiscal resources? Our projections conclude that to balance their books, the provinces and territories would have to freeze real age-adjusted per capita health, education, and social service spending and make sharp cuts to other program spending over the medium term. Even with substantially reduced health and education spending compared with the last 10 years, the provinces will have to cut 12.2 per cent from other program spending, or a total reduction of $8.5 billion. Once their books are balanced, the provinces will have additional resources to direct to health care and will be able to afford real per capita increases. However, because of slower expected revenue growth due to an aging population, these real per capita increases will have to be substantially lower than those observed over recent history.
The analysis of different scenarios for OAS revealed that the changes in OAS will have an impact on the fiscal position of the provinces and territories. The federal government recently increased the age eligibility for OAS to 67, beginning in 2023. A return to the lower eligibility would lead to higher consumer spending as senior citizens could collect OAS
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46

Chapter 6 | The Conference Board of Canada at an earlier age, and this additional spending would increase GDP growth in Canada. Higher economic growth would generate additional tax revenue and lower welfare payments for the provinces and territories.
This development would improve the combined provincial and territorial fiscal position over the forecast period. However, fiscal surpluses would be lower for the federal government due to the higher OAS payments linked to a return to a lower age eligibility of 65 in 2023.
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A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Canadian Institute for Health Information. National Health Expenditure
Trends , 1975 to 2013. Ottawa: CIHI, 2013.
Statistics Canada. CANSIM Table 281-0006. Average Weekly Earnings of Employes , (SEPH). www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a05?lang=eng&id=281
0006&pattern=2810006&searchTypeByValue=1&p2=35 .
—. CANSIM Table 281-0039. Fixed Weighted Index of Average Hourly
Earnings for All Employees (SEPH), Excluding Overtime, Unadjusted for Seasonal Variation, for Selected Industries Classified Using the
North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) . www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lang=eng&retrLang=eng&id=
2810039&pattern=281-0023.281-0039&tabMode=dataTable& srchLan=-1&p1=-1&p2=31 .
—. CANSIM Table 381-0022. Input-Output Tables, Inputs and Outputs,
Detailed Level, Basic Prices . www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/ a26?lang=eng&retrLang=eng&id=3810022&paSer=&pattern=
&stByVal=1&p1=1&p2=31&tabMode=dataTable&csid= .
—. Survey of Employment, Survey and Hours . July 31, 2014. www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=2612 .
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Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
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A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 1
Key Economic Indicators—Canada
($ billions)
GDP at market prices
(2007 $ billions)
Implicit price deflator
(2007 = 1)
Total employment
U.S. gross domestic product (2009 US$ billions)
Consumer price index
(2002 = 1)
(000s)
2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28 2028–29 2029–30 2030–31 2031–32 2032–33 2033–34 2034–35
1,462
3.5
0.920
3.5
13,897
3.6
1.052
2.2
15,976
1,510
3.3
0.951
3.4
14,347
3.2
1.076
2.3
16,187
1,540
2.0
0.976
2.6
14,661
2.2
1.096
1.9
16,515
1,573
2.1
1.010
3.5
14,919
1.8
1.119
2.1
16,894
1,576
0.2
1.032
2.2
14,703
–1.4
1.144
2.2
17,036
1,550
–1.6
1.026
–0.6
14,474
–1.6
1.149
0.4
16,831
1,604
3.5
1.049
2.3
14,853
2.6
1.172
2.0
17,128
1,642
2.3
1.084
3.3
15,174
2.2
1.206
2.8
17,346
1,668
1.6
1.099
1.4
15,521
2.3
1.220
1.2
17,577
1,705
2.2
1.111
1.1
15,866
2.2
1.232
1.0
17,763
1,741
2.1
1.126
1.3
16,346
3.0
1.254
1.8
17,993
1,787
2.6
1.148
1.9
16,872
3.2
1.280
2.0
18,308
1,826
2.2
1.170
1.9
17,384
3.0
1.306
2.1
18,579
1,866
2.2
1.193
2.0
17,945
3.2
1.333
2.1
18,837
1,904
2.0
1.216
1.9
18,490
3.0
1.360
2.1
19,047
1,946
2.2
1.239
1.9
19,018
2.9
1.388
2.0
19,216
1,988
2.1
1.262
1.9
19,530
2.7
1.416
2.0
19,363
2,027
2.0
1.285
1.9
20,042
2.6
1.445
2.0
19,504
2,069
2.1
1.309
1.8
20,549
2.5
1.475
2.0
19,660
2,110
2.0
1.333
1.9
21,060
2.5
1.505
2.0
19,789
2,151
1.9
1.359
1.9
21,578
2.5
1.535
2.0
19,903
2,194
2.0
1.384
1.8
22,111
2.5
1.566
2.0
20,028
2,236
1.9
1.410
1.9
22,658
2.5
1.598
2.0
20,165
2,278
1.9
1.436
1.9
23,219
2.5
1.630
2.0
20,298
2,320
1.9
1.463
1.9
23,796
2.5
1.663
2.0
20,429
2,364
1.9
1.490
1.9
24,389
2.5
1.697
2.0
20,567
2,407
1.8
1.519
1.9
24,999
2.5
1.731
2.0
20,722
2,452
1.9
1.546
1.8
25,632
2.5
1.766
2.0
20,863
2,497
1.9
1.576
1.9
26,279
2.5
1.801
2.0
21,015
2,544
1.9
1.605
1.9
26,950
2.5
1.837
2.0
21,176
2,590
1.8
1.636
1.9
27,635
2.5
1.874
2.0
21,331
Unemployment rate
Private non-farm average hourly earnings
Real disposable income
(2007 $ billions)
Private non-farm productivity (2002 $ 000s)
Corporate profits before taxes ($ billions)
Housing starts
Prime rate
(000s)
Canada three-month
Treasury bill
U.S. three-month
Treasury bill
Exchange rate (C$/US$)
U.S. federal funds rate
Merchandise terms of trade
Current account balance
($ billions)
2.3
–13.4
1.81
86.7
1.28
78.4
1.7
61.0
0.93
4.1
26.48
51.1
50.518
0.7
138.68
25.5
229.2
4.0
4.0
–12.3
1.6
7.1
–6.5
18.9
1.7
760
3.4
3.0
30.9
3.69
104.2
1.19
83.9
3.7
116.2
0.97
3.9
29.85
12.7
51.758
2.5
149.79
8.0
233.6
1.9
4.7
16.6
1.3
6.6
–6.6
19.6
3.4
793
4.3
87.9
5.2
39.2
0.97
4.2
37.7
5.00
35.4
1.14
0.6
17.51
–41.3
52.421
1.3
138.43
–7.6
222.2
–4.9
6.0
27.6
2.0
6.2
–5.7
20.4
4.1
831
4.9
3.8
–7.8
3.71
–25.7
1.03
97.1
4.5
–12.9
1.02
4.9
12.32
–29.7
52.358
–0.1
138.91
0.3
231.4
4.1
6.0
0.3
2.3
6.0
–3.9
21.2
4.1
868
4.3
1.8
–52.0
0.92
–75.1
1.13
89.4
1.2
–73.8
1.01
–1.1
–12.66
–202.8
52.218
–0.3
140.36
1.0
185.2
–20.0
4.0
–32.6
0.8
6.6
10.2
22.3
4.8
892
2.9
0.2
–87.8
0.12
–86.6
1.09
91.9
0.1
–87.5
0.96
–4.5
–48.13
280.1
52.547
0.6
103.67
–26.1
164.9
–11.0
2.3
–44.3
–1.2
8.4
26.9
23.0
3.1
908
1.7
0.8
249.7
0.14
14.9
1.02
98.4
0.2
22.6
0.99
2.9
–57.57
19.6
53.632
2.1
146.19
41.0
184.9
12.1
2.8
24.1
1.8
7.9
–6.2
23.3
1.4
937
3.2
0.9
16.1
0.04
–73.5
0.99
–2.3
0.1
–51.2
1.02
2.5
–50.10
–13.0
54.257
1.2
165.72
13.4
201.5
9.0
3.0
7.5
1.3
7.4
–6.1
23.8
2.1
953
1.7
1.0
8.1
0.09
142.2
1.00
0.8
0.1
69.8
1.00
–1.2
–62.95
25.6
54.589
0.6
147.79
–10.8
207.2
2.8
3.0
0.0
1.3
7.2
–2.2
24.5
3.1
980
2.9
0.9
–3.4
0.05
–45.9
1.05
5.2
0.1
–10.6
1.01
0.2
–61.12
–2.9
55.014
0.8
148.73
0.6
191.3
–7.7
3.0
0.0
1.1
7.1
–2.1
25.0
2.2
1,001
2.1
0.9
–8.6
0.06
22.0
1.10
4.8
0.3
86.3
0.99
–1.4
–59.38
–2.8
55.484
0.9
149.50
0.5
190.8
–0.2
3.0
0.0
1.3
6.8
–4.2
25.7
2.5
1,025
2.4
1.1
22.1
0.22
263.2
1.10
–0.7
0.4
43.7
1.00
0.6
–52.75
–11.2
55.911
0.8
160.46
7.3
183.2
–4.0
3.2
6.6
1.8
6.4
–4.9
26.4
2.7
1,053
2.7
1.8
70.6
0.83
282.3
1.09
–0.2
1.2
234.8
1.00
0.3
–48.31
–8.4
56.409
0.9
167.09
4.1
180.4
–1.5
4.0
23.8
1.5
6.2
–3.8
27.1
2.8
1,078
2.4
2.8
54.8
2.02
143.0
1.09
0.0
2.6
119.5
1.01
0.4
–41.13
–14.9
56.935
0.9
178.94
7.1
187.8
4.1
5.0
25.3
1.4
5.8
–5.7
27.9
2.8
1,104
2.4
0.0
3.6
36.5
1.01
3.7
31.9
2.93
44.7
1.09
0.1
–33.87
–17.6
57.564
1.1
187.16
4.6
194.9
3.8
5.9
18.1
1.1
5.7
–2.2
28.6
2.8
1,127
2.1
0.0
3.8
5.2
1.01
3.8
4.1
3.17
8.3
1.09
0.2
–28.11
–17.0
58.419
1.5
197.17
5.3
196.3
0.7
6.0
2.5
0.9
5.7
–0.5
29.4
2.8
1,152
2.2
3.8
0.1
3.22
1.6
1.09
0.0
3.8
0.0
1.01
0.1
–22.50
–20.0
59.200
1.3
207.40
5.2
195.7
–0.3
6.0
0.0
0.8
5.6
–0.6
30.3
2.8
1,176
2.1
0.0
3.8
0.0
1.01
3.8
0.0
3.25
0.9
1.09
0.2
–18.43
–18.1
59.951
1.3
216.96
4.6
193.3
–1.2
6.0
0.0
0.7
5.6
–0.6
31.1
2.8
1,200
2.1
3.8
0.0
3.27
0.5
1.09
0.0
3.8
0.0
1.01
0.0
–13.33
–27.7
60.717
1.3
227.41
4.8
191.2
–1.1
6.0
0.0
0.8
5.6
–0.7
32.0
2.8
1,226
2.1
0.0
3.8
0.0
1.02
3.8
0.0
3.27
0.3
1.09
0.2
–8.37
–37.2
61.520
1.3
238.87
5.0
189.5
–0.9
6.0
0.0
0.7
5.6
–0.1
32.8
2.7
1,249
1.9
3.8
0.0
3.28
0.1
1.09
0.0
3.8
0.0
1.02
0.2
–3.28
–60.8
62.374
1.4
251.65
5.4
188.9
–0.3
6.0
0.0
0.6
5.5
–0.7
33.7
2.7
1,271
1.8
0.0
3.8
0.0
1.02
3.8
0.0
3.28
0.1
1.09
0.0
1.92
–158.4
63.219
1.4
265.10
5.3
188.5
–0.2
6.0
0.0
0.6
5.5
–0.1
34.6
2.7
1,294
1.8
3.8
0.0
3.28
0.0
1.09
0.0
3.8
0.0
1.02
0.1
6.69
248.8
64.043
1.3
278.06
4.9
187.7
–0.4
6.0
0.0
0.7
5.5
–1.0
35.6
2.7
1,317
1.8
0.0
3.8
0.0
1.02
3.8
0.0
3.28
0.0
1.09
0.0
9.69
44.9
64.825
1.2
290.77
4.6
186.6
–0.6
6.0
0.0
0.7
5.4
–0.5
36.5
2.7
1,339
1.7
3.8
0.0
3.28
0.0
1.09
0.0
3.8
0.0
1.02
0.0
13.61
40.5
65.609
1.2
304.73
4.8
185.5
–0.6
6.0
0.0
0.6
5.4
–0.6
37.5
2.7
1,362
1.7
0.0
3.8
0.0
1.02
3.8
0.0
3.28
0.0
1.09
–0.1
17.16
26.0
66.414
1.2
318.59
4.5
184.0
–0.8
6.0
0.0
0.7
5.4
–0.6
38.5
2.7
1,385
1.7
3.8
0.0
3.28
0.0
1.09
0.0
3.8
0.0
1.02
0.1
21.94
27.9
67.129
1.1
331.90
4.2
182.7
–0.7
6.0
0.0
0.8
5.3
–0.5
39.5
2.7
1,410
1.8
0.0
3.8
0.0
1.02
3.8
0.0
3.28
0.0
1.09
–0.1
26.41
20.4
0.7
5.3
–0.3
40.6
2.7
1,435
1.7
67.903
1.2
68.669
1.1
346.45
362.60
4.4
4.7
181.7
–0.5
6.0
0.0
180.5
–0.7
6.0
0.0
0.7
5.3
–0.8
41.7
2.7
1,460
1.7
3.8
0.0
3.29
0.0
1.09
0.0
3.8
0.0
1.02
0.1
33.83
28.1
0.0
3.8
0.0
1.02
3.8
0.0
3.29
0.0
1.09
0.0
40.37
19.3
69.406
1.1
378.92
4.5
178.7
–1.0
6.0
0.0
0.8
5.2
–0.7
42.8
2.7
1,485
1.7
3.8
0.0
3.29
0.0
1.09
0.0
3.8
0.0
1.02
0.0
46.53
15.3
70.195
1.1
395.83
4.5
177.4
–0.8
6.0
0.0
0.7
5.2
–0.6
44.0
2.7
1,510
1.7
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
50

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 2
GDP by Expenditure
(2007 $ billions)
Final consumption expenditure
Household final consumption expenditure
Non-profit institutions serving households’ consumption expenditure
General governments’ final consumption expenditure
2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28 2028–29 2029–30 2030–31 2031–32 2032–33 2033–34 2034–35
1,049.7
1,084.3
1,124.5
2.7
3.3
3.7
744.1
772.4
803.9
3.2
20.4
–0.5
3.8
20.7
1.1
4.1
21.0
1.5
1,172.8
1,198.6
1,222.1
1,256.3
1,278.5
1,298.3
1,324.4
4.3
2.2
2.0
2.8
1.8
1.5
2.0
841.5
4.7
21.4
1.9
852.8
1.3
22.4
4.7
865.0
1.4
22.9
2.2
892.7
3.2
22.8
–0.4
911.6
2.1
23.2
2.0
928.1
1.8
23.7
2.1
951.0
2.5
24.0
1.2
1,347.7
1,375.6
1,402.8
1,430.2
1,455.9
1,483.4
1,511.5
1,539.5
1,567.5
1,595.7
1,624.5
1,653.6
1,683.0
1,712.7
1,742.9
1,773.4
1,804.4
1,835.7
1,867.4
1,899.5
1,932.1
1.8
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
971.2
2.1
24.3
1.4
994.3
1,016.7
1,039.0
1,059.9
1,080.6
2.4
24.9
2.1
2.2
25.4
2.1
2.2
25.9
2.0
2.0
26.4
2.2
2.0
27.5
3.9
1,101.3
1,122.0
1.9
28.4
3.3
1.9
29.3
3.4
1,142.8
1,163.7
1.9
30.3
3.4
1.8
31.3
3.4
1,184.8
1,206.1
1,227.5
1,249.2
1,271.0
1,293.0
1,315.3
1,337.6
1,360.2
1,382.9
1,405.9
1.8
32.4
3.4
1.8
33.5
3.4
1.8
34.6
3.3
1.8
35.7
3.2
1.7
36.8
3.2
1.7
38.0
3.1
1.7
39.1
3.0
1.7
40.3
2.9
1.7
41.4
2.8
1.7
42.5
2.8
1.7
43.7
2.7
285.4
1.7
291.3
2.1
299.7
2.9
310.0
3.4
323.3
4.3
334.0
3.3
340.6
2.0
343.7
0.9
346.6
0.8
349.9
0.9
352.9
0.9
357.4
1.3
362.0
1.3
366.9
1.3
371.4
1.2
377.2
1.6
383.8
1.7
390.2
1.7
396.5
1.6
402.9
1.6
409.5
1.6
416.3
1.7
423.2
1.7
430.2
1.7
437.4
1.7
444.8
1.7
452.4
1.7
460.1
1.7
468.1
1.7
476.2
1.7
484.5
1.7
Gross fixed capital formation
311.5
341.4
357.4
370.4
357.9
338.0
372.6
386.7
400.0
398.8
407.6
419.6
428.9
436.8
442.8
452.8
461.4
469.8
478.8
487.4
495.9
504.4
514.0
523.2
532.1
541.3
550.3
559.0
567.8
577.2
586.7
Business
Intellectual property products
Non-profit institutions serving households
General governments
Final domestic demand
Investments in inventories
Exports of goods and services
Less: Imports of goods and services
Real net exports
GDP at market prices
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
51

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 3
Federal Government Revenues
($ millions)
Budgetary revenues
Income tax
Personal income taxes
Corporate income taxes
Other
Employment insurance revenues
Total excise taxes
Goods and services tax
Other excise taxes and duties
Custom and import duties
Energy taxes
Other excise taxes and duties
Other revenues
13,099
0.2
3,091
0.0
5,054
0.0
4,954
0.0
19,742
22.2
13.3
17,307
–1.4
42,857
3.6
29,758
5.2
2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28 2028–29 2029–30 2030–31 2031–32 2032–33 2033–34 2034–35
211,943 222,203 235,966 242,420 233,092 218,600 237,091 249,107 256,635 267,157 274,896 291,198 302,300 313,454 327,710 341,064 355,352 369,824 385,146 400,784 417,048 434,090 451,637 469,564 488,361 507,864 528,183 549,243 571,481 594,469 618,148
6.7
4.8
6.2
2.7
–3.8
–6.2
8.5
5.1
3.0
4.1
2.9
5.9
3.8
3.7
4.5
4.1
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
132,037 139,944 153,099 159,384 151,798 139,601 148,563 159,478 165,787 171,606 177,904 188,482 197,750 208,184 218,046 228,394 238,973 249,669 261,074 272,698 284,820 297,552 310,655 324,012 338,074 352,674 367,898 383,732 400,525 417,889 435,778
6.9
6.0
9.4
4.1
–4.8
–8.0
6.4
7.3
4.0
3.5
3.7
5.9
4.9
5.3
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.3
98,521 103,691 110,477 113,063 116,024 103,947 113,457 120,537 125,728 130,432 136,541 143,890 151,229 158,503 166,070 173,700 181,550 189,680 198,293 206,887 215,660 224,872 234,555 244,545 254,931 265,867 277,536 289,512 302,046 315,093 328,517
6.0
29,956
5.2
31,724
6.5
37,745
2.3
40,628
2.6
29,476
–10.4
30,361
9.1
29,969
6.2
33,641
4.3
34,986
3.7
35,000
4.7
35,381
5.4
38,275
5.1
39,856
4.8
42,683
4.8
44,643
4.6
47,031
4.5
49,471
4.5
51,752
4.5
54,243
4.3
56,977
4.2
60,026
4.3
63,233
4.3
66,326
4.3
69,357
4.2
72,688
4.3
75,992
4.4
79,168
4.3
82,639
4.3
86,491
4.3
90,384
4.3
94,416
9.2
3,560
5.9
4,529
19.0
4,877
7.6
5,693
–27.4
6,298
3.0
5,293
–1.3
5,137
12.3
5,300
4.0
5,073
0.0
6,174
1.1
5,982
8.2
6,317
4.1
6,665
7.1
6,998
4.6
7,333
5.3
7,663
5.2
7,952
4.6
8,237
4.8
8,538
5.0
8,835
5.4
9,134
5.3
9,446
4.9
9,775
4.6
10,110
4.8
10,455
4.5
10,815
4.2
11,194
4.4
11,580
4.7
11,987
4.5
12,411
4.5
12,844
13,136
0.3
3,330
7.7
5,076
0.4
4,730
–4.5
19,568
–0.9
27.2
16,535
–4.5
46,156
7.7
33,020
11.0
14,021
6.7
3,704
11.2
5,128
1.0
5,189
9.7
20,761
6.1
7.7
16,789
1.5
45,317
–1.8
31,296
–5.2
14,287
1.9
3,903
5.4
5,139
0.2
5,245
1.1
22,271
7.3
16.7
16,558
–1.4
44,207
–2.4
29,920
–4.4
14,066
–1.5
4,036
3.4
5,161
0.4
4,869
–7.2
24,601
10.5
10.6
16,887
2.0
39,806
–10.0
25,740
–14.0
13,626
–3.1
3,490
–13.5
5,178
0.3
4,958
1.8
21,665
–11.9
–16.0
16,761
–0.7
40,573
1.9
26,947
4.7
14,524
6.6
3,520
0.9
5,342
3.2
5,662
14.2
28,124
29.8
–2.9
17,501
4.4
42,903
5.7
28,379
5.3
14,736
1.5
3,862
9.7
5,328
–0.3
5,546
–2.0
27,967
–0.6
3.2
18,556
6.0
43,106
0.5
28,370
0.0
14,730
0.0
3,979
3.0
5,381
1.0
5,370
–3.2
26,902
–3.8
–4.3
20,395
9.9
43,551
1.0
28,821
1.6
14,813
0.6
4,229
6.3
5,399
0.3
5,185
–3.4
28,134
4.6
21.7
21,954
7.6
45,464
4.4
30,651
6.3
15,870
7.1
4,522
6.9
5,517
2.2
5,832
12.5
26,820
–4.7
–3.1
22,622
3.0
47,550
4.6
31,680
3.4
16,350
3.0
4,955
9.6
5,611
1.7
5,784
–0.8
29,784
11.0
5.6
23,622
4.4
49,312
3.7
32,961
4.0
16,151
–1.2
4,720
–4.8
5,696
1.5
5,736
–0.8
30,807
3.4
5.5
23,294
–1.4
50,449
5.0
4.8
20,274 20,805
–13.0
52,116
2.6
53,858
2.3
3.3
34,298 35,699
4.1
4.1
3.3
37,074
3.9
16,417
1.6
4,954
5.0
5,776
1.4
5,688
–0.8
32,880
6.7
16,784
2.2
5,190
4.8
5,855
1.4
5,739
0.9
35,001
6.5
17,155
2.2
5,427
4.6
5,937
1.4
5,791
0.9
36,278
3.7
4.5
20,866
0.3
55,526
3.1
38,371
3.5
17,523
2.1
5,664
4.4
6,016
1.3
5,843
0.9
37,593
3.6
3.8
21,586
3.5
57,200
3.0
39,677
3.4
17,906
2.2
5,919
4.5
6,092
1.3
5,895
0.9
38,915
3.5
3.6
22,324
3.4
58,917
3.0
41,010
3.4
18,305
2.2
6,187
4.5
6,169
1.3
5,948
0.9
40,310
3.6
3.7
23,100
3.5
60,663
3.0
42,358
3.3
18,724
2.3
6,475
4.7
6,246
1.3
6,002
0.9
41,736
3.5
3.5
23,866
3.3
62,484
3.0
43,760
3.3
19,153
2.3
6,772
4.6
6,325
1.3
6,056
0.9
43,216
3.5
3.4
24,637
3.2
64,375
3.0
45,222
3.3
19,591
2.3
7,075
4.5
6,405
1.3
6,110
0.9
44,760
3.6
3.4
25,440
3.3
66,337
3.0
46,747
3.4
20,047
2.3
7,396
4.5
6,485
1.3
6,165
0.9
46,338
3.5
3.5
26,286
3.3
68,358
3.0
48,311
3.3
20,518
2.4
7,730
4.5
6,567
1.3
6,221
0.9
47,939
3.5
3.4
27,149
3.3
70,464
3.1
49,946
3.4
21,003
2.4
8,077
4.5
6,650
1.3
6,277
0.9
49,609
3.5
3.4
28,035
3.3
72,643
3.1
51,639
3.4
21,501
2.4
8,435
4.4
6,733
1.2
6,333
0.9
51,339
3.5
3.4
28,958
3.3
74,893
3.1
53,391
3.4
3.5
29,932
3.4
77,212
3.1
55,193
3.4
22,019 22,550
2.4
2.4
8,812
4.5
9,199
4.4
6,817
1.2
6,390
0.9
53,140
3.5
6,902
1.3
6,448
0.9
54,996
3.5
3.5
30,918
3.3
79,597
3.1
57,047
3.4
23,099
2.4
9,605
4.4
6,989
1.3
6,506
0.9
56,953
3.6
3.5
3.5
31,956 33,044
3.4
82,046
3.4
84,565
3.1
58,947
3.3
3.1
60,901
3.3
23,663
2.4
10,023
4.4
7,076
1.2
6,565
0.9
58,972
3.5
24,249
2.5
10,461
4.4
7,164
1.2
6,624
0.9
61,048
3.5
3.5
34,155
3.4
87,167
3.1
62,918
3.3
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
52

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 4
Federal Government Expenditures
($ millions)
Budgetary expenditures
Program spending
Major transfers to persons
Old Age Security
Employment insurance benefits
Children’s benefits
Transfers to other governments
CHST (other CHT not shown)
CHT
CST
Fiscal arrangements
(Youth Allowances
Recovery and statutory subsidies not shown)
Equalization
2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28 2028–29 2029–30 2030–31 2031–32 2032–33 2033–34 2034–35
210,480 208,985 222,213 232,823 238,847 274,198 270,463 275,386 275,564 280,350 279,987 286,836 296,880 308,168 323,298 336,247 349,063 361,814 374,569 386,102 396,931 407,724 418,340 428,838 439,314 450,246 462,510 474,715 486,379 497,636 508,384
11.1
–0.7
6.3
4.8
2.6
14.8
–1.4
1.8
0.1
1.7
–0.1
2.4
3.5
3.8
4.9
4.0
3.8
3.7
3.5
3.1
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.2
176,362 175,213 188,269 199,498 207,857 244,784 239,592 244,306 246,411 251,285 250,804 257,592 267,071 275,450 286,807 297,863 309,409 321,147 333,372 344,980 356,244 367,797 379,508 391,455 403,744 416,893 431,784 446,998 462,091 477,278 492,511
14.8
51,307
2.6
27,871
0.0
14,748
–0.7
52,609
2.5
28,992
4.0
14,417
7.5
55,582
5.7
30,284
4.5
14,084
6.0
58,147
4.6
31,955
5.5
14,298
4.2
61,586
5.9
33,377
4.5
16,308
17.8
68,579
11.4
34,653
3.8
21,586
–2.1
68,135
–0.6
35,629
2.8
19,850
2.0
68,418
0.4
38,045
6.8
17,647
0.9
70,329
2.8
40,255
5.8
17,099
2.0
72,117
2.5
41,885
4.0
17,153
–0.2
2.7
75,162 78,280
4.2
44,233
5.6
17,688
4.1
46,738
5.7
18,131
3.7
81,676
4.3
49,376
5.6
18,701
3.1
84,939
4.0
52,159
5.6
18,980
4.1
88,853
4.6
55,171
5.8
19,679
3.9
93,182
4.9
58,413
5.9
20,559
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
97,674 102,290 107,104 111,179 114,613 118,241 121,728 125,337 128,983 133,362 139,172 145,055 150,697 156,058 161,279
4.8
21,415
4.7
61,842 65,400
5.9
5.8
22,263
4.7
69,161
5.8
23,108
3.8
72,109
4.3
24,033
3.1
74,531
3.4
3.2
77,020
3.3
24,851 25,800
2.9
79,511
3.2
26,615
3.0
82,037
3.2
27,529
2.9
84,602
3.1
28,450
3.4
87,874
3.9
29,398
4.4
92,505
5.3
30,416
4.2
97,133
5.0
31,507
3.9
101,567
4.6
32,551
3.6
105,656
4.0
33,661
3.3
109,542
3.7
34,830
0.0
8,688
0.0
41,955
42.7
28,031
25.5
13,467
0.0
19,000
–2.1
8,225
–4.6
12,977
–3.6
–2.2
9,200
5.9
40,815
–2.7
27,225
–2.9
–2.3
11,214
21.9
42,514
4.2
28,640
5.2
20,140
6.0
8,500
3.3
13,740
5.9
1.5
11,894
6.1
46,152
8.6
31,346
9.4
21,474
6.6
9,872
16.1
15,178
10.5
14.1
11,901
0.1
46,515
0.8
33,327
6.3
22,759
6.0
10,568
7.1
15,807
4.1
32.4
12,340
3.7
56,990
22.5
35,678
7.1
24,820
9.1
10,858
2.7
16,789
6.2
–8.0
12,656
2.6
52,787
–7.4
37,210
4.3
26,031
4.9
11,179
3.0
16,400
–2.3
–11.1
12,726
0.6
56,794
7.6
38,700
4.0
27,000
3.7
11,500
2.9
15,259
–7.0
–3.1
12,975
2.0
58,400
2.8
40,800
5.4
11,900
3.5
17,800
16.7
0.3
13,079
0.8
60,467
3.5
42,700
4.7
28,600 30,300
5.9
5.9
12,200
2.5
18,643
4.7
3.1
13,241
1.2
62,642
3.6
44,700
4.7
32,100
5.9
12,600
3.3
19,358
3.8
2.5
13,411
1.3
65,411
4.4
47,000
5.1
34,000
5.9
13,000
3.2
20,006
3.4
3.1
13,599
1.4
68,395
4.6
49,400
5.1
36,100
6.2
13,300
2.3
20,771
3.8
1.5
13,800
1.5
70,911
3.7
51,280
3.8
37,580
4.1
13,700
3.0
21,577
3.9
3.7
14,003
1.5
73,753
4.0
53,407
4.1
39,207
4.3
14,200
3.6
22,471
4.1
4.5
14,210
1.5
76,542
3.8
55,447
3.8
40,821
4.1
14,626
3.0
23,375
4.0
4.2
14,417
1.5
79,560
3.9
57,563
3.8
42,498
4.1
15,065
3.0
24,328
4.1
4.0
14,627
1.5
82,541
3.7
59,734
3.8
44,217
4.0
15,517
3.0
25,302
4.0
3.8
14,835
1.4
85,717
3.8
61,976
3.8
45,994
4.0
15,982
3.0
26,309
4.0
4.0
15,037
1.4
88,886
3.7
64,276
3.7
47,815
4.0
16,462
3.0
27,349
4.0
3.4
15,232
1.3
3.8
15,421
1.2
92,265 95,634
3.8
3.7
66,640 69,084
3.7
49,684
3.9
16,956
3.0
28,433
4.0
3.7
51,619
3.9
17,464
3.0
29,532
3.9
3.2
15,601
3.4
15,770
3.3
15,931
3.3
16,090
3.5
16,251
3.6
16,415
3.3
16,579
3.4
16,742
3.5
16,907
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
99,219 102,833 106,645 110,471 114,512 118,689 122,898 127,374 131,920
3.7
71,609
3.7
53,620
3.9
17,988
3.0
30,674
3.9
3.6
74,220
3.6
55,693
3.9
18,528
3.0
31,859
3.9
3.7
76,911
3.6
57,827
3.8
19,084
3.0
33,073
3.8
3.6
79,679
3.6
60,023
3.8
19,656
3.0
34,329
3.8
3.7
82,529
3.6
62,283
3.8
20,246
3.0
35,623
3.8
3.6
85,482
3.6
64,629
3.8
20,853
3.0
36,961
3.8
3.5
88,531
3.6
67,052
3.7
21,479
3.0
38,343
3.7
3.6
91,699
3.6
69,576
3.8
22,123
3.0
39,783
3.8
3.6
94,983
3.6
72,196
3.8
22,787
3.0
41,280
3.8
Territorial Formula
Financing
Canada’s cities and communities
Other transfers
Alternative
Payments for
Standing Programs
Direct program spending
Public debt charges
83,100
11.9
34,118
–4.6
10,907
0.0
2,058
0.0
81,789
–1.6
33,772
–1.0
11,535
5.8
2,118
2.9
90,173
10.3
33,944
0.5
12,925
12.1
2,279
7.6
95,199
5.6
33,325
–1.8
13,462
4.2
2,313
1.5
14,185
5.4
2,498
8.0
1,872
0.0
2,651
–201.2
14,372
1.3
2,664
6.6
1,751
–6.5
–2,574
–197.1
14,659
2.0
2,876
8.0
2,206
26.0
629
–124.4
15,423
5.2
3,111
8.2
2,000
–9.3
1,200
90.7
–3,400
0.0
16,105
4.4
3,288
5.7
2,100
5.0
500
–58.3
–3,475
2.2
16,669
3.5
3,469
5.5
2,000
–4.8
200
–60.0
–3,615
4.0
17,215
3.3
3,611
4.1
2,000
0.0
200
0.0
–3,795
5.0
17,874
3.8
3,756
4.0
2,100
5.0
100
–50.0
–3,976
4.8
18,607
4.1
3,865
2.9
2,100
0.0
100
0.0
–4,147
4.3
19,412
4.3
3,992
3.3
2,200
4.8
0
–100.0
–4,324
4.3
20,211
4.1
4,130
3.5
2,200
0.0
0
0.0
–4,479
3.6
21,042
4.1
4,287
3.8
2,300
4.5
0
0.0
–4,632
3.4
21,893
4.0
4,445
3.7
2,300
0.0
0
0.0
–4,795
3.5
22,772
4.0
4,609
3.7
2,400
4.3
0
0.0
–4,969
3.6
23,674
4.0
4,784
3.8
2,400
0.0
0
0.0
–5,140
3.4
24,600
3.9
4,980
4.1
2,500
25,558
3.9
5,157
3.6
2,500
4.2
0
0.0
–5,308 –5,482
3.3
3.3
0.0
0
0.0
26,549
3.9
5,347
3.7
2,600
27,575
3.9
5,546
3.7
2,600
4.0
0
0.0
–5,663 –5,846
3.3
3.2
0.0
0
0.0
28,631
3.8
5,745
3.6
2,700
29,718
3.8
5,957
3.7
2,700
3.8
0
0.0
–6,039 –6,236
3.3
3.3
0.0
0
0.0
30,838
3.8
6,176
3.7
2,800
31,999
3.8
6,398
3.6
2,900
3.7
0
0.0
–6,440 –6,655
3.3
3.3
3.6
0
0.0
33,199
3.7
6,629
3.6
2,900
0.0
0
0.0
–6,877
3.3
34,449
3.8
6,870
3.6
3,000
3.4
0
0.0
–7,109
3.4
35,746
3.8
7,120
3.6
3,000
0.0
0
0.0
–7,343
3.3
99,756 119,215 118,670 118,758 117,700 118,700 113,000 113,900 117,000 119,600 124,200 128,138 132,174 136,316 140,551 144,915 149,365 153,922 158,562 163,285 168,117 173,060 178,100 183,254 188,496 193,846 199,312
4.8
30,990
–7.0
19.5
29,414
–5.1
–0.5
30,871
5.0
0.1
31,080
0.7
–0.9
29,153
–6.2
0.8
29,065
–0.3
–4.8
29,182
0.4
0.8
29,244
0.2
2.7
29,809
1.9
2.2
32,719
9.8
3.8
36,492
11.5
3.2
38,384
5.2
3.2
39,654
3.3
3.1
40,667
2.6
3.1
41,197
1.3
3.1
41,123
–0.2
3.1
40,687
–1.1
3.1
39,927
–1.9
3.0
38,831
–2.7
3.0
37,383
–3.7
3.0
35,569
–4.9
2.9
33,353
–6.2
2.9
30,727
–7.9
2.9
27,717
–9.8
2.9
24,288
–12.4
2.8
20,358
–16.2
2.8
15,873
–22.0
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
53

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 5
Budgetary Balance and Debt—Federal Government
($ millions)
Budgetary revenues
Program spending
Operating balance
Public debt charges
Total budgetary balance
2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28 2028–29 2029–30 2030–31 2031–32 2032–33 2033–34 2034–35
211,943 222,203 235,966 242,420 233,092 218,600 237,091 249,107 256,635 267,157 274,896 291,198 302,300 313,454 327,710 341,064 355,352 369,824 385,146 400,784 417,048 434,090 451,637 469,564 488,361 507,864 528,183 549,243 571,481 594,469 618,148
6.7
4.8
6.2
2.7
–3.8
–6.2
8.5
5.1
3.0
4.1
2.9
5.9
3.8
3.7
4.5
4.1
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
176,362 175,213 188,269 199,498 207,857 244,784 239,592 244,306 246,411 251,285 250,804 257,592 267,071 275,450 286,807 297,863 309,409 321,147 333,372 344,980 356,244 367,797 379,508 391,455 403,744 416,893 431,784 446,998 462,091 477,278
14.8
–0.7
7.5
6.0
4.2
17.8
–2.1
2.0
0.9
2.0
–0.2
2.7
3.7
3.1
4.1
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
4.0
492,511
3.2
35,581
–20.8
34,118
–4.6
1,463
–84.0
0.1
46,990
32.1
33,772
–1.0
13,218
803.5
0.9
47,697
1.5
33,944
0.5
13,753
4.0
0.9
42,922
–10.0
33,325
–1.8
9,597
–30.2
0.6
25,235 –26,183
–41.2
30,990
–7.0
–0.4
–203.8
29,414
–5.1
–3.5
–2,501
–90.4
30,871
5.0
–2.0
4,801
–292.0
31,080
0.7
–1.5
10,224
113.0
29,153
–6.2
–1.0
15,873
55.2
29,065
–0.3
–5,755 –55,598 –33,372 –26,279 –18,929 –13,192
–160.0
866.0
–40.0
–21.3
–28.0
–30.3
–0.7
24,092
51.8
29,182
0.4
–5,090
–61.4
–0.3
33,606
39.5
29,244
0.2
4,362
–185.7
0.2
35,229 38,004
4.8
7.9
29,809
1.9
5,420
24.2
0.3
32,719
9.8
5,286
–2.5
0.2
40,903
7.6
36,492
11.5
4,411
–16.5
0.2
43,201
5.6
38,384
5.2
4,817
9.2
0.2
45,943
6.3
39,654
3.3
6,289
30.6
0.3
48,677
6.0
40,667
2.6
8,011
27.4
0.3
51,774
6.4
41,197
1.3
10,577
32.0
0.4
55,804
7.8
41,123
–0.2
14,682
38.8
0.5
60,804
9.0
40,687
–1.1
20,117
37.0
0.7
66,293
9.0
39,927
–1.9
26,366
31.1
0.9
72,129
8.8
38,831
–2.7
33,298
26.3
1.1
78,109
8.3
37,383
–3.7
40,726
22.3
1.2
84,616
8.3
35,569
–4.9
49,047
20.4
1.4
90,971
7.5
33,353
–6.2
57,618
17.5
1.6
96,399 102,245 109,390 117,191 125,637
6.0
6.1
7.0
7.1
7.2
30,727
–7.9
65,672
14.0
1.8
27,717
–9.8
74,528
13.5
2.0
24,288
–12.4
85,102
14.2
2.2
20,358
–16.2
96,833
13.8
2.4
15,873
–22.0
109,763
13.4
2.6
Budgetary balance as a percentage of GDP
Accumulated deficit
Non-financial assets
Net debt
Interest-bearing debt
494,717 481,499 467,268 457,637 463,710 519,097 550,327 583,600 602,441 615,633 620,724 616,362 610,941 605,656 601,245 596,428 590,139 582,129 571,551 556,870 536,752 510,386 477,089 436,363 387,316 329,698 264,025 189,497 104,396
–0.3
–2.7
–3.0
–2.1
1.3
11.9
6.0
6.0
3.2
2.2
0.8
–0.7
–0.9
–0.9
–0.7
–0.8
–1.1
–1.4
–1.8
–2.6
–3.6
–4.9
–6.5
–8.5
–11.2
–14.9
–19.9
–28.2
–44.9
54,870 55,447 56,637 58,644 61,503 63,375 66,581 67,959 68,922 70,409 71,923 73,468 75,044 76,653 78,295 79,971 81,680 83,425 85,205 87,021 88,875 90,766 92,695 94,662 96,670
7,562 –102,201
–92.8
–1,451.4
98,718 100,807 102,938 105,112 107,330 109,592
0.1
1.1
2.1
3.5
4.9
3.0
5.1
2.1
1.4
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
549,587 536,946 523,905 516,281 525,213 582,472 616,908 651,535 671,363 686,042 692,647 689,829 685,986 682,309 679,540 676,399 671,820 665,554 656,756 643,891 625,627 601,152 569,783 531,025 483,986 428,415 364,832 292,435 209,508 114,892
2.1
7,391
–0.3
–2.3
–2.4
–1.5
1.7
10.9
5.9
5.6
3.0
2.2
1.0
–0.4
–0.6
–0.5
–0.4
–0.5
–0.7
–0.9
–1.3
–2.0
–2.8
–3.9
–5.2
–6.8
–8.9
–11.5
–14.8
–19.8
–28.4
–45.2
–93.6
607,232 601,073 599,252 581,864 710,163 762,783 801,811 844,111 892,014 905,990 912,595 909,777 905,934 902,257 899,488 896,347 891,768 885,502 876,704 863,839 845,575 821,100 789,731 750,973 703,934 648,363 584,780 512,383 429,456 334,840 227,339
Net debt per capita
Net debt as a share of GDP
–1.2
–1.0
–0.3
–2.9
22.0
7.4
5.1
5.3
5.7
1.6
0.7
–0.3
–0.4
–0.4
–0.3
–0.3
–0.5
–0.7
–1.0
–1.5
–2.1
–2.9
–3.8
–4.9
–6.3
–7.9
17,168 16,611.6 16,046.7
15,657.1 15,753.1
17,271 18,097 18,917 19,261 19,459 19,428 19,131 18,808 18,495 18,212 17,925 17,607 17,253 16,845 16,342 15,715 14,947 14,027 12,948 11,690 10,253
0.41
0.37
0.35
0.32
0.32
0.37
0.37
0.37
0.37
0.36
0.35
0.34
0.32
0.31
0.29
0.28
0.27
0.26
0.24
0.23
0.21
0.20
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
–9.8
8,654
0.10
–12.4
6,876
0.08
–16.2
4,885
0.05
–22.0
2,657
0.03
–32.1
170
0.00
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
54

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 6
Status Quo Scenario —Provincial Government Revenues
($ millions)
Total revenues
Own-source revenues
Tax revenues
Personal income taxes
Corporate income tax
Retail sales tax
Other tax revenue
Other tax revenue
Crown corporations
Canada Health
Transfer
Canada Social
Transfer
Other
Tobacco tax
Gasoline and fuel tax
Property tax
Other revenues
Royalties
Other
Transfers from
Government of Canada
Equalization
2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28 2028–29 2029–30 2030–31 2031–32 2032–33 2033–34 2034–35
235,663 256,233 275,470 291,362 285,204 280,120 299,751 312,307 317,284 330,432 337,858 353,115 368,144 383,941 399,325 415,433 431,978 449,018 466,427 484,508 502,934 521,871 541,519 561,479 581,969 602,882 625,077 647,447 670,772 694,626 719,344
11.3
8.7
7.5
5.8
–2.1
–1.8
7.0
4.2
1.6
4.1
2.2
4.5
4.3
4.3
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
192,479 209,839 226,349 236,447 227,458 217,883 231,255 245,980 251,336 259,367 268,491 280,688 292,533 305,506 317,829 330,828 344,130 357,853 371,842 386,400 401,188 416,388 432,176 448,139 464,526 481,211 499,056 516,929 535,616 554,656 574,380
10.5
9.0
7.9
4.5
–3.8
–4.2
6.1
6.4
2.2
3.2
3.5
4.5
4.2
4.4
4.0
4.1
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
52,559
4.4
23,652
29.6
32,439
4.6
55,718
6.0
25,424
7.5
34,057
5.0
64,956
16.6
23,137
–9.0
35,751
5.0
171,435 164,318 158,495 169,036 179,382 189,615 194,242 200,567 210,043 218,791 228,485 237,714 247,257 257,013 266,897 277,304 287,997 299,142 310,790 322,720 334,913 347,680 360,874 374,516 388,665 403,529 418,841 434,607
–4.2
–3.5
6.7
6.1
5.7
2.4
3.3
4.7
4.2
4.4
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
67,127
3.3
66,607
–0.8
62,173
–6.7
63,821
2.6
67,774
6.2
71,204
5.1
75,077
5.4
78,569
4.7
82,797
5.4
87,020
5.1
91,206
4.8
95,560
4.8
99,951
4.6
104,468
4.5
109,146
4.5
114,102
4.5
119,047
4.3
124,095
4.2
129,396
4.3
134,968
4.3
140,716
4.3
146,692
4.2
152,985
4.3
159,700
4.4
166,591
4.3
173,804
4.3
181,311
4.3
189,036
4.3
27,608
19.3
37,197
4.0
39,504
19,885
–28.0
38,455
3.4
18,600
–6.5
38,119
–0.9
20,817
11.9
42,206
10.7
21,813
4.8
46,042
9.1
25,867
18.6
48,336
5.0
25,332
–2.1
48,138
–0.4
25,563
0.9
49,826
3.5
27,537
7.7
51,825
4.0
28,674
4.1
53,904
4.0
30,708
7.1
56,036
4.0
32,118
4.6
58,119
3.7
33,836
5.3
60,149
3.5
35,592
5.2
62,201
3.4
37,232
4.6
64,305
3.4
39,025
4.8
66,475
3.4
40,992
5.0
68,726
3.4
43,185
5.4
71,069
3.4
45,493
5.3
73,514
3.4
47,718 49,899
4.9
76,025
3.4
4.6
78,637
3.4
52,295
4.8
81,344
3.4
54,672
4.5
84,144
3.4
56,957
4.2
87,029
3.4
59,454
4.4
89,996
3.4
62,226 65,027
4.7
93,051
3.4
4.5
96,195
3.4
67,927
4.5
99,437
3.4
4,076
6,094
39,371
–0.3
3,947
–3.2
5,963
39,603
0.6
4,153
5.2
5,940
42,192
6.5
4,538
9.3
6,053
43,752
3.7
4,523
–0.3
6,342
44,208 45,696
1.0
3.4
4,521
–0.0
6,435
4,779
5.7
6,524
46,609
2.0
4,998
4.6
6,638
47,883
2.7
5,051
1.1
6,752
49,193 50,535
2.7
2.7
5,103
1.0
6,853
5,155
1.0
6,950
51,917
2.7
5,208
1.0
7,046
53,321
2.7
5,256
0.9
7,144
54,753
2.7
5,303
0.9
7,240
56,214
2.7
5,350
0.9
7,330
57,702 59,233
2.6
2.7
5,394
0.8
7,423
5,437
0.8
7,516
60,792
2.6
5,481
0.8
7,611
62,387
2.6
5,525
0.8
7,707
64,010
2.6
5,569
0.8
7,804
65,661
2.6
5,613
0.8
7,902
67,349
2.6
5,658
0.8
8,002
69,073
2.6
5,704
0.8
8,102
70,829
2.5
5,749
0.8
8,203
72,624
2.5
5,795
0.8
8,305
74,448 76,308
2.5
2.5
5,842
0.8
8,409
5,888
0.8
8,514
78,207
2.5
5,935
0.8
8,621
13,968
25.9
19,428
39.1
18,661
–3.9
10,296
19,040
65,012
19,361
3.7
17,501
–2.1
10,363
0.7
19,098
0.3
63,139
–2.9
23,150
19.6
16,827
–0.4
10,304
–0.6
19,207
0.6
59,382
–6.0
14,677
–36.6
17,074
1.9
10,867
5.5
20,734
7.9
62,219
4.8
16,381
4.8
10,742
–1.1
22,145
6.8
66,598
7.0
20,318
1.5
10,536
–1.9
22,715
2.6
61,721
–7.3
14,633
1.4
10,865
3.1
23,528
3.6
65,125
5.5
16,227
1.8
11,114
2.3
23,859
1.4
67,924
4.3
17,488
1.7
11,466
3.2
24,615
3.2
70,645
4.0
18,349
1.5
11,833
3.2
25,403
3.2
73,742
4.4
19,589
1.4
12,212
3.2
26,218
3.2
77,021
4.4
20,927
1.4
12,604
3.2
27,059
3.2
80,115
4.0
22,063
1.4
13,004
3.2
27,917
3.2
83,571
4.3
23,472
1.3
13,414
3.2
28,797
3.2
87,116
4.2
24,926
1.3
13,834
3.1
29,699
3.1
90,956 94,538
4.4
26,637
1.3
14,264
3.1
30,622
3.1
3.9
28,018
1.3
14,707
3.1
31,572
3.1
4.1
29,622
1.3
15,158
3.1
32,542 33,535
3.1
98,404 102,046 105,598 109,455 113,226 116,846 120,336 124,540 128,263 132,088 135,815 139,774
3.7
30,945
1.3
15,621
3.1
3.1
3.5
32,101
1.3
16,091
3.0
34,546
3.0
3.7
33,507
1.3
16,571
3.0
35,575
3.0
3.4
34,783
1.3
17,061
3.0
36,627
3.0
3.2
35,834
1.2
17,563
2.9
37,704
2.9
3.0
36,684
1.3
18,074
2.9
38,803
2.9
3.5
38,171
1.2
18,597
2.9
39,925
2.9
3.0
39,112
1.3
19,129
2.9
41,068
2.9
3.0
40,056
1.2
19,672
2.8
42,233
2.8
2.8
40,829
1.3
20,227
2.8
43,424
2.8
2.9
41,760
43,147
14.9
46,358
7.4
49,122
6.0
28,149
3.2
54,915
11.8
20,317
23,163
–17.7
57,747
5.2
21,476
5.7
27,631
19.3
62,237
7.8
23,392
8.9
11.6
17,242
1.0
28,596
3.5
68,496
10.1
24,047
2.8
24.0
16,861
–2.2
29,419
2.9
66,327
–3.2
25,079
4.3
–28.0
17,003
0.8
30,085
2.3
65,949
–0.6
26,444
5.4
10.9
17,634
3.7
31,264
3.9
71,065
7.8
28,302
7.0
7.8
18,254
3.5
32,183
2.9
69,367
–2.4
29,858
5.5
4.9
19,094
4.6
33,202
3.2
72,426
4.4
31,647
6.0
6.8
19,888
6.8
20,731
4.2
4.2
34,265 35,364
3.2
3.2
75,612
4.4
78,435
3.7
33,635 35,009
6.3
4.1
5.4
6.4
21,553 22,443
4.0
36,499
3.2
4.1
37,656
3.2
81,496
3.9
36,526
4.3
84,605
3.8
38,044
4.2
6.2
23,348
6.9
24,259
4.0
3.9
38,843 40,060
3.2
3.1
87,848
3.8
39,627
4.2
91,164
3.8
41,244
4.1
5.2
25,216
3.9
41,304
3.1
94,585
3.8
42,913
4.0
5.7
26,195
3.9
42,587
3.1
4.5
3.7
27,206 28,263
3.9
3.9
43,895 45,234
3.1
3.1
4.4
29,351
3.8
46,597
3.0
3.8
30,457
3.8
47,985
3.0
3.0
31,607
3.8
49,405
3.0
2.4
32,794
3.8
50,858
2.9
4.1
34,030
3.8
52,339
2.9
2.5
35,298
3.7
53,854
2.9
2.4
1.9
36,638 38,020
3.8
3.8
55,394 56,966
2.9
2.8
2.3
39,441
3.7
58,573
2.8
98,107 101,746 105,483 109,344 113,340 117,444 121,671 126,022 130,519 135,156 139,970 144,963
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
44,628
4.0
46,393
4.0
48,221
3.9
50,109
3.9
52,068
3.9
54,083
3.9
56,156
3.8
58,290
3.8
60,503
3.8
62,789
3.8
65,169
3.8
67,643
3.8
8,859
15,204
10,535
9,473
6.9
15,775
3.8
11,023
4.6
9,799
3.4
16,757
6.2
12,289
11.5
10,061
2.7
17,541
4.7
16,846
37.1
10,347
2.9
18,201
3.8
12,700
–24.6
10,566
2.1
19,147
5.2
9,791
–22.9
10,927
3.4
19,709
2.9
12,127
23.9
11,226
2.7
20,338
3.2
7,944
–34.5
11,558
3.0
21,026
3.4
8,196
3.2
11,789
2.0
21,729
3.3
8,458
3.2
12,124
2.8
22,572
3.9
8,729
3.2
12,557
3.6
23,404
3.7
9,010
3.2
12,924
2.9
24,342
4.0
9,295
3.2
13,305
2.9
25,328
4.1
9,588
3.2
13,695
2.9
26,337
4.0
9,888
3.1
14,094
2.9
27,382
4.0
10,196
3.1
14,509
2.9
28,458
3.9
10,512
3.1
14,939
3.0
29,579
3.9
10,835
3.1
15,381
3.0
30,715
3.8
11,166
3.1
15,836
3.0
31,896
3.8
11,502
3.0
16,306
3.0
33,121
3.8
11,845
3.0
16,789
3.0
34,376
3.8
12,195
3.0
17,286
3.0
35,675
3.8
12,554
2.9
17,799
3.0
37,013
3.8
12,919
2.9
18,324
3.0
38,398
3.7
13,293
2.9
18,866
3.0
39,828
3.7
13,674
2.9
19,422
2.9
41,318
3.7
14,062
2.8
19,997
3.0
42,865
3.7
14,458
2.8
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
55

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 7
Status Quo Scenario —Provincial Government Expenditures
($ millions)
2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28 2028–29 2029–30 2030–31 2031–32 2032–33 2033–34 2034–35
Total expenditures 230,477 243,514 258,050 279,040 290,632 308,474 321,566 330,882 334,279 347,070 360,128 375,132 390,961 409,282 429,457 449,339 469,910 491,467 514,138 537,744 562,417 588,295 615,601 644,427 674,760 706,514 739,703 774,682 811,616 850,347 890,862
Total program expenditures
5.5
5.7
6.0
8.1
4.2
6.1
4.2
2.9
1.0
3.8
3.8
4.2
4.2
4.7
4.9
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.8
4.8
207,625 221,208 235,878 256,786 269,422 287,328 298,657 306,935 309,696 321,265 333,176 346,458 360,428 375,288 391,171 407,773 425,174 443,359 462,621 482,859 503,943 525,879 548,830 572,827 597,773 623,511 649,990 677,551 706,253 735,873 766,314
6.2
6.5
6.6
8.9
4.9
6.6
3.9
2.8
0.9
3.7
3.7
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.1
Health
Social services
Education
Other program expenditures
Interest payments
Net transfer to capital assets (Nunavut)
Other adjustments to balance
86,191
7.7
22,809
2.6
56,418
5.2
37,038
7.0
23,068
–0.9
–50
–9.8
–1,712
5.0
–383
90,522
5.0
23,801
4.4
59,649
5.7
41,292
11.5
22,553
–2.2
–17
–66.9
97,520 104,952 112,239 117,842 124,010 128,808 132,892 137,374 143,714 150,919 158,648 166,909 175,645 184,798 194,437 204,621 215,391 226,809 238,759 251,336 264,554 278,530 293,257 308,714 324,866 341,733 359,533 378,074 397,359
7.7
7.6
6.9
5.0
5.2
3.9
3.2
3.4
4.6
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.1
25,312
6.3
26,555
4.9
28,231
6.3
30,359
7.5
31,449
3.6
32,496
3.3
32,473
–0.1
32,844
1.1
33,808
2.9
34,879
3.2
35,996
3.2
37,150
3.2
38,343
3.2
39,559
3.2
40,805
3.2
42,083
3.1
43,391
3.1
44,738
3.1
46,112
3.1
47,518
3.1
48,951
3.0
50,409
3.0
51,901
3.0
53,427
2.9
54,983
2.9
56,574
2.9
58,192
2.9
59,844
2.8
61,531
2.8
63,620
6.7
49,427
19.7
68,772
8.1
56,507
14.3
71,843
4.5
57,109
1.1
75,142
4.6
63,985
12.0
77,559
3.2
65,639
2.6
79,529
2.5
66,102
0.7
79,305
–0.3
65,026
–1.6
81,834
3.2
69,213
6.4
84,408
3.1
71,246
2.9
87,157
3.3
73,502
3.2
89,929
3.2
75,855
3.2
92,941
3.3
78,288
3.2
96,382 100,053 103,944 107,972 112,401 117,035 121,899 126,887 132,170 137,659 143,243 148,782 154,275 160,024 165,898 171,844 177,757
3.7
80,801
3.2
3.8
83,363
3.2
3.9
85,989
3.2
3.9
88,684
3.1
4.1
91,439
3.1
4.1
94,277
3.1
4.2
97,173
3.1
4.1
100,137
3.1
4.2
103,156
3.0
4.2
106,229
3.0
4.1
109,372
3.0
3.9
112,588
2.9
3.7
115,867
2.9
3.7
119,220
2.9
3.7
122,630
2.9
3.6
126,111
2.8
3.4
129,667
2.8
22,219
–1.5
–47
184.6
22,308
0.4
–53
12.7
21,244
–4.8
–33
–37.1
21,190
–0.3
–45
34.1
22,934
8.2
–24
–46.5
23,951
4.4
–3
–85.8
24,697
3.1
–114
3258.8
25,779
4.4
27
–123.4
26,952
4.6
0
–100.0
28,674
6.4
0
0.0
30,533
6.5
0
0.0
33,994
11.3
0
0.0
38,286
12.6
0
0.0
41,567
8.6
0
0.0
44,735
7.6
0
0.0
48,107
7.5
0
0.0
51,517
7.1
0
0.0
54,885
6.5
0
0.0
58,475
6.5
0
0.0
62,416
6.7
0
0.0
66,771
7.0
0
0.0
71,600
7.2
0
0.0
76,988
7.5
0
0.0
83,003
7.8
0
0.0
89,713
8.1
0
0.0
97,131
8.3
0
0.0
105,363
8.5
0
0.0
114,474
8.6
0
0.0
124,548
8.8
0
0.0
Stabilization reserve
Surplus/deficit
–953
–44.3
–139
–475
–50.2
–1,405
–654
37.8
–1,842
–863
31.9
2,264
–1,585
83.6
748
–1,491
–5.9
–48
–703
–52.8
298
–899
27.9
42
396
–144.0
135
655
65.6
0
443
–32.3
0
50
–88.7
0
55
10.0
0
–54
–197.8
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
Accumulated deficit
Non-financial assets
Net debt
6,515 13,533 16,489 11,134 –2,301 –26,021 –20,373 –17,574 –16,053 –16,108 –21,615 –21,574 –22,767 –25,285 –30,186 –33,961 –37,986 –42,503 –47,765 –53,290 –59,537 –66,478 –74,136 –83,002 –92,845 –103,686 –114,680 –127,289 –140,898 –155,775 –171,572
–234.2
107.7
21.8
–32.5
–120.7
1030.8
–21.7
–13.7
–8.7
0.3
34.2
–0.2
5.5
11.1
19.4
12.5
11.9
11.9
12.4
11.6
11.7
11.7
11.5
12.0
11.9
11.7
10.6
11.0
10.7
10.6
10.1
137,918 129,640 226,034 217,409 225,762 254,551 272,650 291,264 305,844 320,831 344,944 364,936 385,449 407,944 435,004 465,744 500,411 539,496 583,740 633,404 689,208 751,842 822,022 900,955 989,614 1,088,994 1,199,247 1,321,984 1,458,204 1,609,171 1,775,804
5.1
32,802
–6.0
65,318
74.4
–3.8
3.8
12.8
7.1
6.8
5.0
4.9
7.5
5.8
5.6
5.8
6.6
7.1
7.4
7.8
8.2
8.5
8.8
9.1
9.3
9.6
9.8
10.0
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.4
92,988 103,106 116,351 142,466 163,463 182,254 202,839 220,555 232,956 241,637 247,714 251,968 254,945 257,983 261,083 264,247 267,474 270,768 274,128 277,557 281,055 284,623 288,263 291,976 295,764 299,628 303,570 307,592 311,694
124.2
99.1
42.4
10.9
12.8
22.4
14.7
11.5
11.3
8.7
5.6
3.7
2.5
1.7
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
302,351 308,595 318,907 320,354 342,093 397,188 436,627 473,949 508,805 541,386 577,901 606,573 633,163 659,912 689,949 723,727 761,495 803,742 851,214 904,172 963,336 1,029,399 1,103,077 1,185,578 1,277,877 1,380,970 1,495,011 1,621,612 1,761,774 1,916,763 2,087,498
–0.7
2.1
3.3
0.5
6.8
16.1
9.9
8.5
7.4
6.4
6.7
5.0
4.4
4.2
4.6
4.9
5.2
5.5
5.9
6.2
6.5
6.9
7.2
7.5
7.8
8.1
8.3
8.5
8.6
8.8
8.9
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
56

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 8
Detailed Health Expenditures— Status Quo Scenario
($ millions)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Health care expenditures (current dollars)
Administration
Capital
Drugs
Hospitals
Other institutions
Other professionals
Other health spending
Public health
10,530
8.1
732
2.2
4,290
1.3
4,893
2.1
1,306
2.5
4,158
5.7
6,993
9.7
34,714
7.2
Physicians
Total health care expenditures
16,748
6.2
84,364 90,368
6.5
7.1
Health care expenditures (2012 $)
17,918
7.0
1,393
6.6
4,852
16.7
7,593
8.6
36,519
5.2
10,958
4.1
651
–11.1
4,632
8.0
5,853
19.6
Administration
Capital
Drugs
Hospitals
Other institutions
Other professionals
Other health spending
Public health
Physicians
Total health care expenditures
1,460
4.8
4,947
2.0
8,155
7.4
39,074
7.0
11,483
4.8
690
6.0
5,053
9.1
6,374
8.9
1,522
4.3
5,406
9.3
8,650
6.1
41,717
6.8
12,077
5.2
776
12.5
5,554
9.9
6,939
8.9
1,452
–4.6
6,440
19.1
9,147
5.7
44,682
7.1
12,686
5.0
874
12.6
6,113
10.1
7,397
6.6
1,409
–2.9
6,840
6.2
9,845
7.6
47,608
6.6
13,543
6.8
966
10.5
6,307
3.2
7,401
0.0
1,431
1.6
7,593
11.0
10,043
2.0
50,918
7.0
14,261
5.3
1,024
5.9
6,478
2.7
7,568
2.3
1,414
–1.2
7,422
–2.2
10,280
2.4
53,035
4.2
14,570
2.2
1,094
6.9
6,583
1.6
7,955
5.1
1,489
5.3
7,178
–3.3
10,537
2.5
55,002
3.7
15,012
3.0
1,205
10.2
6,785
3.1
8,127
2.2
1,527
2.6
7,488
4.3
10,476
–0.6
56,446
2.6
15,342
2.2
1,264
4.8
7,013
3.4
8,317
2.3
1,577
3.3
7,799
4.1
10,688
2.0
59,239
4.9
16,116
5.0
1,319
4.4
7,313
4.3
8,673
4.3
1,636
3.7
8,165
4.7
11,076
3.6
62,348
5.2
16,976
5.3
1,380
4.6
7,660
4.7
9,084
4.7
1,697
3.7
8,551
4.7
11,580
4.6
65,654
5.3
17,895
5.4
1,444
4.6
8,025
4.8
9,517
4.8
1,760
3.7
8,959
4.8
12,184
5.2
69,180
5.4
18,863
5.4
1,511
4.7
8,409
4.8
9,972
4.8
1,826
3.7
9,367
4.5
12,869
5.6
72,910
5.4
19,883
5.4
1,583
4.7
8,811
4.8
10,449
4.8
1,894
3.7
9,791
4.5
13,628
5.9
76,810
5.3
20,935
5.3
1,657
4.7
9,230
4.8
10,946
4.8
1,964
3.7
10,245
4.6
14,458
6.1
80,899
5.3
22,055
5.4
1,735
4.7
9,666
4.7
11,463
4.7
2,037
3.7
10,715
4.6
15,349
6.2
85,212
5.3
23,273
5.5
1,818
4.8
10,121
4.7
12,003
4.7
2,111
3.6
11,199
4.5
16,311
6.3
89,780
5.4
24,599
5.7
1,905
4.8
10,595
4.7
12,564
4.7
2,188
3.6
11,704
4.5
17,339
6.3
94,617
5.4
26,044
5.9
1,997
4.8
11,090
4.7
13,152
4.7
2,267
3.6
12,225
4.5
18,433
6.3
99,664
5.3
27,587
5.9
2,092
4.8
11,605
4.6
13,763
4.6
2,348
3.6
12,764
4.4
19,598
6.3
104,968
5.3
29,243
6.0
2,192
4.8
12,142
4.6
14,400
4.6
2,432
3.6
13,321
4.4
20,828
6.3
110,510
5.3
31,072
6.3
2,297
4.8
12,700
4.6
15,061
4.6
2,517
3.5
13,895
4.3
22,127
6.2
116,355
5.3
33,119
6.6
2,408
4.8
13,277
4.6
15,746
4.6
2,605
3.5
14,487
4.3
23,506
6.2
122,503
5.3
35,335
6.7
2,524
4.8
13,878
4.5
16,459
4.5
2,696
3.5
15,099
4.2
24,953
6.2
128,958
5.3
37,692
6.7
2,645
4.8
14,505
4.5
17,201
4.5
2,789
3.4
15,735
4.2
26,463
6.1
135,710
5.2
40,181
6.6
2,771
4.7
15,154
4.5
17,972
4.5
2,885
3.4
16,390
4.2
28,014
5.9
142,748
5.2
42,853
6.7
2,902
4.7
15,831
4.5
18,774
4.5
2,983
3.4
17,071
4.2
29,613
5.7
150,115
5.2
45,889
7.1
3,041
4.8
16,531
4.4
19,605
4.4
3,084
3.4
17,774
4.1
31,281
5.6
157,813
5.1
49,040
6.9
3,185
4.7
17,259
4.4
20,468
4.4
3,187
3.4
18,505
4.1
33,025
5.6
165,831
5.1
52,301
6.7
3,333
4.7
18,016
4.4
21,365
4.4
19,319
7.8
20,873
8.0
22,894
9.7
24,784
8.3
26,636
7.5
28,342
6.4
29,338
3.5
30,399
3.6
31,929
5.0
33,581
5.2
35,321
5.2
37,161
5.2
39,095
5.2
41,114 43,222
5.2
5.1
45,429
5.1
47,734
5.1
50,161
5.1
52,684
5.0
55,325
5.0
58,063
4.9
60,905
4.9
63,876
4.9
66,983
4.9
70,215
4.8
73,570
4.8
77,034
4.7
80,641 84,394
4.7
4.7
96,555 103,515 111,684 118,703 125,951 130,695 134,674 138,272 144,653 151,906 159,685 168,000 176,793 186,006 195,708 205,958 216,799 228,292 240,319 252,979 266,283 280,351 295,174 310,732 326,989 343,967 361,883 380,545 399,957
6.8
7.2
7.9
6.3
6.1
3.8
3.0
2.7
4.6
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.1
13,007
2.7
925
–4.2
4,987
–0.5
5,688
0.3
1,519
0.7
5,122
3.4
6,650
10.4
42,198
2.5
1,584
4.3
5,856
14.3
7,132
7.2
43,510
3.1
13,267
2.0
807
–12.8
5,268
5.6
6,657
17.0
1,628
2.7
5,738
–2.0
7,641
7.1
45,686
5.0
13,637
2.8
839
4.0
5,635
7.0
7,108
6.8
1,662
2.1
6,056
5.5
8,086
5.8
47,162
3.2
13,822
1.4
904
7.8
6,064
7.6
7,576
6.6
1,548
–6.8
6,812
12.5
8,583
6.2
48,753
3.4
13,964
1.0
973
7.7
6,519
7.5
7,889
4.1
1,498
–3.2
7,203
5.7
9,025
5.1
49,452
1.4
14,076
0.8
997
2.4
6,706
2.9
7,869
–0.2
1,495
–0.2
7,985
10.9
9,408
4.2
52,183
5.5
14,615
3.8
1,043
4.6
6,768
0.9
7,906
0.5
1,436
–4.0
7,586
–5.0
9,984
6.1
53,740
3.0
14,779
1.1
1,110
6.4
6,683
–1.3
8,076
2.1
1,489
3.7
7,178
–5.4
10,537
5.5
55,002
2.3
15,012
1.6
1,205
8.6
6,785
1.5
8,127
0.6
1,513
1.6
7,331
2.1
10,896
3.4
55,829
1.5
15,148
0.9
1,246
3.4
6,948
2.4
8,240
1.4
1,538
1.6
7,487
2.1
11,416
4.8
57,339
2.7
15,536
2.6
1,266
1.7
7,131
2.6
8,457
2.6
1,563
1.6
7,647
2.1
11,963
4.8
58,901
2.7
15,946
2.6
1,288
1.7
7,320
2.7
8,681
2.7
1,589
1.7
7,813
2.2
12,538
4.8
60,513
2.7
16,377
2.7
1,310
1.7
7,515
2.7
8,912
2.7
1,615
1.7
7,981
2.2
13,150
4.9
62,190
2.8
16,815
2.7
1,333
1.8
7,716
2.7
9,150
2.7
1,642
1.7
8,154
2.2
13,794
4.9
63,914
2.8
17,263
2.7
1,357
1.8
7,921
2.7
9,394
2.7
1,669
1.6
8,328
2.1
14,471
4.9
65,665
2.7
17,706
2.6
1,382
1.8
8,131
2.7
9,643
2.7
1,696
1.6
8,506
2.1
15,186
4.9
67,460
2.7
18,176
2.7
1,407
1.8
8,346
2.6
9,897
2.6
1,723
1.6
8,686
2.1
15,929
4.9
69,296
2.7
18,685
2.8
1,434
1.9
8,564
2.6
10,157
2.6
1,750
1.6
8,867
2.1
16,715
4.9
71,209
2.8
19,242
3.0
1,461
1.9
8,786
2.6
10,420
2.6
1,778
1.6
9,051
2.1
17,537
4.9
73,172
2.8
19,844
3.1
1,489
1.9
9,013
2.6
10,688
2.6
1,805
1.6
9,237
2.1
18,394
4.9
75,168
2.7
20,478
3.2
1,517
1.9
9,244
2.6
10,962
2.6
1,833
1.5
9,425
2.0
19,292
4.9
77,207
2.7
21,149
3.3
1,546
1.9
9,479
2.5
11,241
2.5
1,861
1.5
9,615
2.0
20,224
4.8
79,277
2.7
21,896
3.5
1,575
1.9
9,717
2.5
11,524
2.5
1,888
1.5
9,806
2.0
21,191
4.8
81,418
2.7
22,743
3.9
1,606
2.0
9,960
2.5
11,811
2.5
1,916
1.5
9,999
2.0
22,201
4.8
83,611
2.7
23,645
4.0
1,638
2.0
10,205
2.5
12,103
2.5
1,943
1.4
10,192
1.9
23,242
4.7
85,839
2.7
24,574
3.9
1,669
1.9
10,454
2.4
12,398
2.4
1,971
1.4
10,387
1.9
24,308
4.6
88,106
2.6
25,526
3.9
1,701
1.9
10,707
2.4
12,698
2.4
1,998
1.4
10,584
1.9
25,376
4.4
90,378
2.6
26,524
3.9
1,732
1.9
10,964
2.4
13,002
2.4
2,025
1.4
10,781
1.9
26,452
4.2
92,696
2.6
27,675
4.3
1,766
1.9
11,224
2.4
13,310
2.4
2,052
1.3
10,980
1.8
27,555
4.2
95,041
2.5
28,817
4.1
1,798
1.9
11,487
2.3
13,623
2.3
2,079
1.3
11,180
1.8
28,688
4.1
97,401
2.5
21,157
–0.4
22,198
4.9
23,479
5.8
24,303
3.5
25,493
4.9
25,581
0.3
27,136
6.1
28,748
5.9
29,338
2.1
29,971
2.2
30,649
2.3
31,347
2.3
32,059
2.3
32,790 33,532
2.3
2.3
34,287
2.2
35,053
2.2
35,825
2.2
36,607
2.2
37,398
2.2
38,198
2.1
39,008
2.1
39,816
2.1
40,625
2.0
41,443
2.0
42,266 43,095
2.0
2.0
43,914
1.9
44,725
1.8
45,539 46,355
1.8
1.8
101,254 106,278 111,389 115,633 120,535 122,408 128,540 132,142 134,674 137,122 140,819 144,657 148,627 152,740 156,971 161,283 165,727 170,299 175,057 179,970 185,004 190,180 195,506 201,048 206,759 212,578 218,500 224,473 230,655 236,894 243,173
2.1
5.0
4.8
3.8
4.2
1.6
5.0
2.8
1.9
1.8
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.7
29,946
3.9
1,831
1.8
11,754
2.3
13,939
2.3
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
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57

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 9
Detailed Health Expenditures Per Capita— Status Quo Scenario
2004 2005
Health care expenditures (per capita, 2012 $)
Administration 48 49
Capital
–0.3
160
3.3
182
Drugs
Hospitals
2.4
208
9.4
1,321
1.6
13.2
221
6.2
1,349
2.1
Other institutions
Other professionals
Other health spending
Public health
Physicians
Total health care expenditures
407
1.7
29
–5.1
156
–1.4
178
–0.7
662
–1.3
3,170
1.1
411
1.0
25
–13.6
163
4.6
206
15.9
688
3.9
3,296
4.0
Inflation by sector
Administration
Capital
Drugs
Hospitals
Other institutions
Other professionals
Other health spending
Public health
Physicians
Total health care expenditures
79
6.7
83
4.4
86
1.9
86
1.9
105
–0.6
82
4.6
81
5.3
79
6.7
86
1.9
81
2.2
81
2.0
85
2.1
88
2.2
88
2.2
83
2.0
81
2.0
106
1.2
84
2.0
88
2.2
83
2.1
2006
50
1.7
176
–3.0
235
6.1
1,403
3.9
419
1.8
26
2.9
173
5.9
218
5.7
721
4.7
3,420
3.8
82
1.9
87
1.9
90
2.0
90
2.0
84
1.9
82
1.9
107
0.2
86
1.9
90
2.0
86
4.1
2007
51
1.1
184
4.5
246
4.8
1,434
2.2
420
0.4
27
6.8
184
6.6
230
5.6
739
2.5
3,516
2.8
92
2.1
89
3.5
107
0.2
88
3.4
87
3.8
86
4.4
92
2.1
92
2.1
86
4.4
90
3.3
2008
47
–7.8
205
11.3
258
5.0
1,466
2.3
420
–0.1
29
6.5
196
6.4
237
3.0
767
3.8
3,626
3.1
94
2.4
95
5.9
107
–0.4
92
3.6
91
4.0
90
4.6
94
2.4
94
2.4
90
4.6
93
3.5
2009
45
–4.3
214
4.5
268
4.0
1,471
0.3
419
–0.3
30
1.3
199
1.7
234
–1.4
761
–0.8
3,640
0.4
94
0.3
95
0.5
109
2.4
96
5.0
96
5.9
97
7.9
94
0.3
94
0.3
97
7.9
97
4.7
2010
44
–1.3
235
9.6
277
3.1
1,535
4.4
430
2.7
31
3.4
199
–0.2
233
–0.6
798
4.9
3,780
3.8
96
1.8
95
0.1
107
–2.1
98
1.4
98
1.4
98
1.3
96
1.8
96
1.8
98
1.3
98
1.0
2011
42
–4.9
221
–5.9
291
5.1
1,565
2.0
430
0.1
32
5.4
195
–2.2
235
1.1
837
4.9
3,848
1.8
99
2.9
98
2.9
103
–3.5
99
1.1
99
1.0
99
0.4
99
2.9
99
2.9
99
0.4
99
0.9
2012
43
2.5
207
–6.5
303
4.3
1,583
1.1
432
0.4
35
7.3
195
0.3
234
–0.6
844
0.8
3,875
0.7
100
1.5
100
2.2
100
–2.9
100
1.3
100
1.4
100
1.4
100
1.5
100
1.5
100
1.4
100
1.1
2013
43
0.4
209
0.9
310
2.2
1,588
0.3
431
–0.3
35
2.2
198
1.2
234
0.2
852
1.0
3,900
0.6
101
0.9
102
2.2
96
–3.9
101
1.1
101
1.3
101
1.4
101
0.9
101
0.9
101
1.4
101
0.8
2014
43
0.5
211
1.0
321
3.6
1,613
1.6
437
1.4
36
0.5
201
1.5
238
1.5
862
1.1
3,961
1.6
103
1.6
104
2.0
94
–2.6
103
2.2
104
2.4
104
2.7
103
1.6
103
1.6
104
2.7
103
1.9
2015
107
2.8
105
2.2
105
2.0
105
2.0
106
2.6
107
2.8
93
–1.1
106
2.5
105
2.0
107
2.5
2016
110
2.8
107
2.3
107
2.0
107
2.0
92
–0.2
108
2.5
109
2.6
110
2.8
107
2.0
109
2.5
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
872
1.1
4,023
1.6
204
1.5
241
1.5
444
1.5
36
0.6
333
3.6
1,638
1.6
43
0.5
213
1.0
882
1.1
4,087
1.6
207
1.5
245
1.5
450
1.5
36
0.6
345
3.6
1,664
1.6
44
0.5
215
1.0
2017
891
1.1
4,152
1.6
210
1.5
249
1.5
457
1.5
36
0.6
357
3.7
1,691
1.6
44
0.5
217
1.0
113
2.9
110
2.4
109
2.1
109
2.1
112
2.7
113
2.9
93
0.3
111
2.5
109
2.1
112
2.6
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
117
2.9
113
2.4
111
2.1
111
2.1
115
2.7
117
2.9
93
0.7
114
2.5
111
2.1
115
2.3
911
1.1
4,286
1.6
216
1.5
256
1.5
471
1.4
37
0.7
385
3.7
1,745
1.6
44
0.5
221
1.0
901
1.1
4,219
1.6
213
1.5
252
1.5
464
1.5
36
0.6
371
3.7
1,718
1.6
44
0.5
219
1.0
921
1.1
4,355
1.6
219
1.5
260
1.5
478
1.5
37
0.7
399
3.8
1,773
1.6
45
0.5
224
1.0
120
2.9
115
2.4
114
2.0
114
2.0
118
2.7
120
2.9
94
0.9
117
2.5
114
2.0
118
2.3
123
2.8
118
2.4
116
2.0
116
2.0
121
2.6
123
2.8
95
1.1
120
2.5
116
2.0
120
2.4
952
1.1
4,580
1.7
229
1.5
272
1.5
505
2.0
38
0.8
446
3.8
1,862
1.7
45
0.5
230
1.0
941
1.1
4,502
1.7
226
1.5
268
1.5
495
1.9
38
0.8
430
3.8
1,831
1.7
45
0.5
228
1.0
130
2.8
124
2.4
121
2.0
121
2.0
128
2.6
130
2.8
98
1.3
126
2.5
121
2.0
126
2.4
134
2.9
127
2.4
123
2.0
123
2.0
131
2.7
134
2.9
99
1.3
129
2.6
123
2.0
129
2.4
931
1.1
4,427
1.6
223
1.5
264
1.5
486
1.7
37
0.8
414
3.8
1,801
1.6
45
0.5
226
1.0
127
2.8
121
2.4
118
2.0
118
2.0
125
2.6
127
2.8
96
1.2
123
2.5
118
2.0
123
2.4
993
1.0
4,914
1.8
243
1.5
289
1.5
556
2.9
39
1.0
518
3.8
1,990
1.7
46
0.5
240
1.0
150
2.8
139
2.4
133
2.0
133
2.0
146
2.6
150
2.8
104
1.4
143
2.5
133
2.0
142
2.3
983
1.1
4,825
1.8
240
1.5
284
1.5
540
2.5
39
0.9
499
3.8
1,956
1.7
46
0.5
237
1.0
146
2.8
136
2.4
131
2.0
131
2.0
142
2.6
146
2.8
103
1.4
139
2.5
131
2.0
139
2.3
972
1.1
4,741
1.8
236
1.5
280
1.5
527
2.2
39
0.9
481
3.8
1,925
1.7
46
0.5
235
1.0
142
2.8
133
2.4
128
2.0
128
2.0
138
2.6
142
2.8
102
1.4
136
2.5
128
2.0
135
2.3
962
1.1
4,659
1.7
233
1.5
276
1.5
516
2.1
38
0.8
463
3.8
1,893
1.7
45
0.5
233
1.0
138
2.8
130
2.4
126
2.0
126
2.0
135
2.6
138
2.8
100
1.4
133
2.5
126
2.0
132
2.3
1,035
1.0
5,289
1.8
258
1.5
306
1.5
625
3.0
41
1.0
598
3.5
2,130
1.7
47
0.5
249
1.0
1,024
1.0
5,194
1.9
255
1.5
302
1.5
607
2.9
40
1.0
578
3.6
2,094
1.7
47
0.5
247
1.0
163
2.8
150
2.4
142
2.0
142
2.0
157
2.6
163
2.8
109
1.4
154
2.5
142
2.0
151
2.3
168
2.8
153
2.4
144
2.0
144
2.0
162
2.6
168
2.8
110
1.4
158
2.5
144
2.0
155
2.2
1,014
1.0
5,099
1.9
251
1.5
297
1.5
589
3.0
40
1.0
558
3.7
2,059
1.7
47
0.5
244
1.0
1,003
1.1
5,006
1.9
247
1.5
293
1.5
572
3.0
40
1.0
537
3.8
2,024
1.7
46
0.5
242
1.0
154
2.8
143
2.4
136
2.0
136
2.0
149
2.6
154
2.8
106
1.4
147
2.5
136
2.0
145
2.3
158
2.8
146
2.4
139
2.0
139
2.0
153
2.6
158
2.8
107
1.4
150
2.5
139
2.0
148
2.2
1,055
1.0
5,489
1.9
266
1.5
316
1.5
668
3.3
42
1.0
638
3.3
2,202
1.7
48
0.5
254
1.0
1,045
1.0
5,389
1.9
262
1.5
311
1.5
647
3.5
41
1.1
618
3.4
2,166
1.7
47
0.5
252
1.0
172
2.8
157
2.4
147
2.0
147
2.0
166
2.6
172
2.8
112
1.4
162
2.5
147
2.0
158
2.2
177
2.8
161
2.4
150
2.0
150
2.0
170
2.6
177
2.8
114
1.4
166
2.5
150
2.0
162
2.2
1,065
1.0
5,589
1.8
270
1.5
320
1.5
688
3.1
42
1.0
659
3.3
2,239
1.7
48
0.5
257
1.0
182
2.8
164
2.4
153
2.0
153
2.0
175
2.6
182
2.8
115
1.4
170
2.5
153
2.0
166
2.2
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
58

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 10
Health Care Expenditures by Age Category, Males— Status Quo Scenario
($ per capita)
Age 0–1
Age 1–4
Age 5–9
Age 10–14
Age 15–19
Age 20–24
Age 25–29
Age 30–34
Age 35–39
Age 40–44
Age 45–49
Age 50–54
Age 55–59
Age 60–64
Age 65–69
Age 70–74
Age 75–79
Age 80–84
Age 85–89
Age 90+
All ages
2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28 2028–29 2029–30 2030–31 2031–32 203233 2033–34 2034–35
3.5
7,522
3.7
10,101
3.3
12,848
2.7
19,650
5.8
2,228
6.8
2,831
7.1
3,665
6.3
5,523
0.2
24,014
6.3
2,516
6.6
1,061
9.6
1,125
10.2
1,136
7.8
1,207
6.9
7,876
3.6
1,223
9.6
984
9.9
934
11.8
1,360
7.9
1,505
5.9
1,790
4.1
7,924
5.3
10,548
4.4
13,599
5.8
19,831
4.6
2,343
5.1
2,981
5.3
3,866
5.5
5,747
0.9
25,710
7.1
2,666
6.0
1,115
5.1
1,157
2.8
1,177
3.6
1,258
4.2
8,230
4.5
1,281
4.8
1,032
4.8
986
5.6
1,408
3.6
1,574
4.6
1,873
5.7
8,248
4.1
10,944
3.8
14,253
4.8
19,978
7.5
2,490
6.3
3,181
6.7
4,127
6.7
6,078
0.7
25,632
–0.3
2,851
7.0
1,224
9.7
1,243
7.4
1,281
8.8
1,346
7.0
8,735
6.1
1,386
8.2
1,103
6.9
1,076
9.2
1,502
6.7
1,675
6.4
2,013
4.2
7,252
4.8
9,775
5.7
12,504
6.4
19,609
5.4
2,087
5.0
2,643
5.0
3,449
4.4
5,335
7.9
22,592
12.1
2,360
6.0
968
3.0
1,022
4.7
1,054
4.7
1,129
2.9
1,261
3.1
1,422
3.9
1,693
7,606
4.5
1,116
3.1
896
3.6
835
2.5
9,346
7.0
1,492
7.6
1,207
9.4
1,173
9.0
1,314
7.3
1,324
6.5
1,373
7.2
1,448
7.6
1,607
7.0
1,819
8.6
2,136
6.1
2,642
6.1
3,365
5.8
4,330
4.9
6,392
5.2
8,643
4.8
11,456
4.7
15,056
5.6
21,106
5.6
26,771
4.4
3,058
7.3
9,851
5.4
1,509
1.2
1,255
4.0
1,208
3.0
1,363
3.7
1,366
3.2
1,415
3.1
1,507
4.1
1,677
4.4
1,914
5.2
2,228
4.3
2,761
4.5
3,480
3.4
4,520
4.4
6,606
3.4
8,910
3.1
11,990
4.7
15,755
4.6
22,164
5.0
27,655
3.3
3,215
5.1
10,485
6.4
1,584
5.0
1,313
4.7
1,271
5.2
1,412
3.6
1,441
5.5
1,492
5.5
1,582
5.0
1,744
4.0
2,003
4.7
2,335
4.8
2,866
3.8
3,627
4.2
4,740
4.9
6,835
3.5
9,150
2.7
12,338
2.9
16,342
3.7
23,209
4.7
28,364
2.6
3,383
5.2
10,661
1.7
1,605
1.3
1,350
2.8
1,321
3.9
1,445
2.3
1,483
2.9
1,560
4.5
1,635
3.4
1,786
2.4
2,054
2.5
2,395
2.6
2,920
1.9
3,716
2.5
4,823
1.8
6,963
1.9
9,259
1.2
12,524
1.5
16,589
1.5
23,609
1.7
27,581
–2.8
3,489
3.1
10,762
0.9
1,614
0.6
1,339
–0.8
1,333
0.9
1,469
1.7
1,466
–1.1
1,547
–0.8
1,643
0.5
1,795
0.5
2,067
0.7
2,414
0.8
2,960
1.4
3,762
1.2
4,886
1.3
7,037
1.1
9,357
1.1
12,651
1.0
16,742
0.9
23,753
0.6
27,684
0.4
3,559
2.0
10,811
0.5
1,636
1.4
1,361
1.6
1,352
1.4
1,488
1.3
1,484
1.2
1,565
1.1
1,661
1.1
1,813
1.0
2,087
0.9
2,434
0.8
2,981
0.7
3,786
0.6
4,912
0.5
7,052
0.2
9,368
0.1
12,657
0.0
16,735
–0.0
23,709
–0.2
27,632
–0.2
3,622
1.8
11,111
2.8
1,684
2.9
1,400
2.9
1,391
2.9
1,530
2.9
1,526
2.8
1,609
2.8
1,707
2.8
1,863
2.7
2,143
2.7
2,498
2.7
3,061
2.7
3,887
2.7
5,043
2.7
7,225
2.5
9,596
2.4
12,967
2.5
17,146
2.5
24,295
2.5
28,320
2.5
3,754
3.6
11,449
3.0
1,740
3.3
1,446
3.3
1,436
3.3
1,580
3.2
1,575
3.2
1,660
3.2
1,761
3.2
1,922
3.1
2,210
3.1
2,575
3.1
3,154
3.0
4,005
3.0
5,194
3.0
7,432
2.9
9,869
2.8
13,335
2.8
17,631
2.8
24,976
2.8
29,115
2.8
3,905
4.0
11,802
3.1
1,797
3.3
1,494
3.3
1,484
3.3
1,632
3.3
1,627
3.3
1,714
3.3
1,818
3.2
1,984
3.2
2,280
3.2
2,656
3.2
3,253
3.1
4,129
3.1
5,355
3.1
7,656
3.0
10,163
3.0
13,730
3.0
18,148
2.9
25,698
2.9
29,956
2.9
4,065
4.1
12,169
3.1
1,857
3.3
1,544
3.4
1,533
3.3
1,686
3.3
1,681
3.3
1,770
3.3
1,878
3.3
2,049
3.3
2,354
3.3
2,742
3.2
3,357
3.2
4,260
3.2
5,524
3.2
7,893
3.1
10,475
3.1
14,148
3.0
18,694
3.0
26,456
3.0
30,838
2.9
4,237
4.2
12,549
3.1
1,919
3.3
1,596
3.3
1,584
3.3
1,742
3.3
1,736
3.3
1,829
3.3
1,940
3.3
2,116
3.3
2,431
3.3
2,831
3.2
3,466
3.2
4,397
3.2
5,700
3.2
8,141
3.1
10,802
3.1
14,586
3.1
19,265
3.1
27,247
3.0
31,757
3.0
4,417
4.2
12,940
3.1
1,982
3.3
1,649
3.3
1,637
3.3
1,799
3.3
1,794
3.3
1,889
3.3
2,004
3.3
2,186
3.3
2,511
3.3
2,923
3.3
3,578
3.2
4,538
3.2
5,881
3.2
8,399
3.2
11,142
3.1
15,039
3.1
19,855
3.1
28,062
3.0
32,704
3.0
4,604
4.2
13,341
3.1
2,048
3.3
1,704
3.3
1,692
3.3
1,858
3.3
1,853
3.3
1,952
3.3
2,070
3.3
2,258
3.3
2,593
3.3
3,019
3.3
3,693
3.2
4,684
3.2
6,068
3.2
8,665
3.2
11,492
3.1
15,506
3.1
20,463
3.1
28,900
3.0
33,677
3.0
4,800
4.2
13,757
3.1
2,116
3.3
1,761
3.3
1,748
3.3
1,920
3.3
1,915
3.3
2,017
3.3
2,139
3.3
2,333
3.3
2,679
3.3
3,118
3.3
3,814
3.3
4,835
3.2
6,263
3.2
8,942
3.2
11,857
3.2
15,992
3.1
21,095
3.1
29,769
3.0
34,686
3.0
5,005
4.3
14,184
3.1
2,186
3.3
1,819
3.3
1,806
3.3
1,983
3.3
1,978
3.3
2,084
3.3
2,210
3.3
2,410
3.3
2,767
3.3
3,220
3.3
3,938
3.2
4,991
3.2
6,463
3.2
9,228
3.2
12,233
3.2
16,493
3.1
21,746
3.1
30,664
3.0
35,724
3.0
5,221
4.3
14,629
3.1
2,259
3.3
1,880
3.3
1,867
3.3
2,049
3.3
2,044
3.3
2,153
3.3
2,283
3.3
2,490
3.3
2,859
3.3
3,326
3.3
4,067
3.3
5,153
3.2
6,672
3.2
9,526
3.2
12,624
3.2
17,014
3.2
22,423
3.1
31,594
3.0
36,803
3.0
5,449
4.4
15,084
3.1
2,333
3.3
1,943
3.3
1,929
3.3
2,117
3.3
2,112
3.3
2,225
3.3
2,359
3.3
2,573
3.3
2,954
3.3
3,435
3.3
4,199
3.3
5,319
3.2
6,885
3.2
9,831
3.2
13,026
3.2
17,549
3.1
23,117
3.1
32,547
3.0
37,908
3.0
5,685
4.3
15,554
3.1
2,410
3.3
2,008
3.3
1,993
3.3
2,187
3.3
2,182
3.3
2,298
3.3
2,437
3.3
2,658
3.3
3,051
3.3
3,548
3.3
4,336
3.3
5,491
3.2
7,106
3.2
10,147
3.2
13,442
3.2
18,102
3.1
23,834
3.1
33,529
3.0
39,047
3.0
5,932
4.3
16,037
3.1
2,490
3.3
2,074
3.3
2,059
3.3
2,259
3.3
2,253
3.3
2,374
3.3
2,518
3.3
2,746
3.3
3,151
3.3
3,664
3.3
4,476
3.2
5,668
3.2
7,334
3.2
10,473
3.2
13,869
3.2
18,670
3.1
24,571
3.1
34,539
3.0
40,218
3.0
6,189
4.3
16,533
3.1
2,571
3.3
2,142
3.3
2,127
3.3
2,333
3.3
2,328
3.3
2,452
3.3
2,601
3.3
2,836
3.3
3,255
3.3
3,783
3.3
4,621
3.2
5,850
3.2
7,568
3.2
10,808
3.2
14,309
3.2
19,255
3.1
25,329
3.1
35,576
3.0
41,419
3.0
6,459
4.4
17,045
3.1
2,656
3.3
2,213
3.3
2,197
3.3
2,409
3.3
2,404
3.3
2,533
3.3
2,687
3.3
2,929
3.3
3,362
3.3
3,907
3.3
4,771
3.2
6,038
3.2
7,809
3.2
11,153
3.2
14,764
3.2
19,859
3.1
26,111
3.1
36,645
3.0
42,658
3.0
6,741
4.4
17,574
3.1
2,743
3.3
2,286
3.3
2,270
3.3
2,489
3.3
2,483
3.3
2,617
3.3
2,775
3.3
3,026
3.3
3,472
3.3
4,034
3.3
4,926
3.2
6,233
3.2
8,059
3.2
11,512
3.2
15,235
3.2
20,484
3.1
26,921
3.1
37,751
3.0
43,941
3.0
7,035
4.4
18,119
3.1
2,833
3.3
2,362
3.3
2,345
3.3
2,570
3.3
2,565
3.3
2,703
3.3
2,867
3.3
3,125
3.3
3,586
3.3
4,166
3.3
5,086
3.2
6,433
3.2
8,317
3.2
11,881
3.2
15,719
3.2
21,127
3.1
27,754
3.1
38,888
3.0
45,257
3.0
7,340
4.3
3.2
16,221
3.2
21,794
3.2
28,616
3.1
40,064
3.3
5,251
3.3
6,641
3.2
8,583
3.2
12,263
3.0
46,620
3.0
7,655
4.3
2,655
3.3
2,650
3.3
2,792
3.3
2,962
3.3
18,683
3.1
2,926
3.3
2,440
3.3
2,422
3.3
3,229
3.3
3,704
3.3
4,303
3.2
16,738
3.2
22,479
3.1
29,503
3.1
41,273
3.3
5,422
3.2
6,855
3.2
8,858
3.2
12,656
3.0
48,020
3.0
7,984
4.3
2,742
3.3
2,737
3.3
2,884
3.3
3,059
3.3
19,263
3.1
3,022
3.3
2,520
3.3
2,502
3.3
3,335
3.3
3,826
3.3
4,443
3.2
17,271
3.2
23,187
3.1
30,417
3.1
42,518
3.3
5,598
3.2
7,076
3.2
9,141
3.2
13,063
3.0
49,462
3.0
8,323
4.3
2,832
3.3
2,827
3.3
2,979
3.3
3,160
3.3
19,861
3.1
3,121
3.3
2,604
3.3
2,585
3.3
3,445
3.3
3,952
3.3
4,588
3.2
17,822
3.2
23,917
3.2
31,361
3.1
43,803
3.3
5,780
3.2
7,304
3.2
9,434
3.2
13,482
3.0
50,950
3.0
8,675
4.2
2,925
3.3
2,920
3.3
3,078
3.3
3,265
3.3
20,478
3.1
3,224
3.3
2,690
3.3
2,670
3.3
3,558
3.3
4,082
3.3
4,738
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
59

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 11
Health Care Expenditures, Females— Status Quo Scenario
($ per capita)
Age 0–1
Age 1–4
Age 5–9
Age 10–14
Age 15–19
Age 20–24
Age 25–29
Age 30–34
Age 35–39
Age 40–44
Age 45–49
Age 50–54
Age 55–59
Age 60–64
Age 65–69
Age 70–74
Age 75–79
Age 80–84
Age 85–89
Age 90+
All ages
2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28 2028–29 2029–30 2030–31 2031–32 203233 2033–34 2034–35
3.8
6,494
3.8
8,880
3.1
12,648
3.3
21,781
6.5
2,243
6.3
2,653
7.6
3,298
7.9
4,797
–0.5
24,239
3.7
3,085
5.7
1,269
7.2
1,652
6.0
2,171
5.3
2,332
5.5
1,969
7.7
1,782
6.7
1,990
7,120
4.3
1,116
7.2
926
8.7
902
10.4
3.7
6,834
5.2
9,336
5.1
13,143
3.9
22,611
3.6
2,349
4.7
2,775
4.6
3,453
4.7
4,975
3.8
25,161
3.8
3,258
5.6
1,327
4.6
1,730
4.8
2,263
4.3
2,456
5.3
2,075
5.4
1,864
4.6
2,060
7,493
5.2
1,183
6.0
969
4.6
952
5.6
4.7
7,084
3.7
9,744
4.4
13,747
4.6
23,067
6.0
2,480
5.6
2,945
6.2
3,651
5.7
5,210
2.0
26,282
4.5
3,438
5.5
1,426
7.4
1,784
3.1
2,323
2.7
2,520
2.6
7,915
5.6
1,259
6.4
1,041
7.4
1,039
9.1
2,171
4.6
1,976
6.0
2,183
4.6
6,257
4.1
8,614
4.6
12,248
5.2
21,900
4.7
2,111
4.2
2,465
3.7
3,057
4.4
4,621
4.5
23,368
10.0
2,918
5.2
1,184
2.3
1,558
1.9
2,061
2.5
2,211
4.5
6,826
3.9
1,041
2.7
852
4.5
817
2.5
1,828
4.1
1,671
3.0
1,867
8,323
5.2
1,360
8.0
1,121
7.7
1,130
8.8
1,515
6.2
1,894
6.2
2,451
5.5
2,658
5.5
2,318
6.8
2,120
7.3
2,335
6.9
2,644
6.6
3,114
5.7
3,846
5.3
5,469
5.0
7,405
4.5
10,159
4.3
14,380
4.6
23,858
3.4
27,639
5.2
3,655
6.3
8,676
4.2
1,404
3.2
1,152
2.8
1,183
4.7
1,570
3.7
1,954
3.1
2,545
3.9
2,779
4.6
2,441
5.3
2,239
5.6
2,447
4.8
2,788
5.4
3,269
5.0
4,024
4.6
5,722
4.6
7,633
3.1
10,621
4.5
15,028
4.5
24,759
3.8
28,442
2.9
3,839
5.0
9,177
5.8
1,462
4.1
1,206
4.7
1,242
5.0
1,634
4.1
1,999
2.3
2,638
3.6
2,903
4.5
2,547
4.3
2,348
4.9
2,532
3.5
2,900
4.0
3,386
3.6
4,215
4.8
5,878
2.7
7,867
3.1
11,036
3.9
15,717
4.6
25,320
2.3
29,838
4.9
4,019
4.7
9,467
3.2
1,504
2.9
1,238
2.6
1,288
3.8
1,669
2.2
2,020
1.1
2,690
2.0
3,003
3.4
2,630
3.3
2,403
2.3
2,608
3.0
2,955
1.9
3,487
3.0
4,315
2.4
5,949
1.2
7,926
0.8
11,096
0.5
15,896
1.1
25,485
0.7
29,637
–0.7
4,117
2.4
9,547
0.9
1,505
0.0
1,240
0.2
1,300
0.9
1,693
1.4
2,029
0.4
2,707
0.6
3,033
1.0
2,658
1.1
2,428
1.0
2,628
0.7
2,991
1.2
3,517
0.8
4,361
1.1
6,009
1.0
8,012
1.1
11,194
0.9
16,018
0.8
25,608
0.5
29,727
0.3
4,186
1.7
9,592
0.5
1,526
1.4
1,261
1.7
1,320
1.5
1,715
1.3
2,053
1.2
2,735
1.0
3,063
1.0
2,686
1.0
2,452
1.0
2,651
0.9
3,015
0.8
3,541
0.7
4,385
0.6
6,021
0.2
8,018
0.1
11,187
–0.1
15,986
–0.2
25,509
–0.4
29,610
–0.4
4,239
1.3
9,858
2.8
1,571
3.0
1,298
2.9
1,358
2.9
1,765
2.9
2,112
2.9
2,813
2.9
3,150
2.8
2,761
2.8
2,520
2.8
2,724
2.7
3,096
2.7
3,636
2.7
4,500
2.6
6,166
2.4
8,209
2.4
11,455
2.4
16,371
2.4
26,126
2.4
30,331
2.4
4,379
3.3
10,159
3.0
1,623
3.3
1,341
3.3
1,403
3.3
1,822
3.2
2,180
3.2
2,902
3.2
3,249
3.2
2,848
3.1
2,599
3.1
2,808
3.1
3,191
3.1
3,746
3.0
4,634
3.0
6,342
2.9
8,440
2.8
11,776
2.8
16,825
2.8
26,843
2.7
31,164
2.7
4,540
3.7
10,472
3.1
1,677
3.3
1,386
3.3
1,449
3.3
1,881
3.3
2,251
3.3
2,996
3.2
3,353
3.2
2,940
3.2
2,683
3.2
2,897
3.2
3,292
3.2
3,863
3.1
4,778
3.1
6,532
3.0
8,690
3.0
12,120
2.9
17,310
2.9
27,601
2.8
32,044
2.8
4,711
3.8
10,798
3.1
1,733
3.3
1,432
3.4
1,498
3.3
1,943
3.3
2,325
3.3
3,093
3.3
3,462
3.2
3,036
3.3
2,771
3.3
2,991
3.2
3,398
3.2
3,987
3.2
4,929
3.2
6,735
3.1
8,956
3.1
12,486
3.0
17,822
3.0
28,397
2.9
32,966
2.9
4,892
3.8
11,136
3.1
1,791
3.3
1,480
3.3
1,547
3.3
2,007
3.3
2,402
3.3
3,194
3.3
3,575
3.3
3,135
3.3
2,861
3.3
3,089
3.3
3,509
3.2
4,115
3.2
5,087
3.2
6,947
3.2
9,236
3.1
12,869
3.1
18,357
3.0
29,226
2.9
33,926
2.9
5,081
3.9
11,483
3.1
1,850
3.3
1,529
3.3
1,599
3.3
2,073
3.3
2,480
3.3
3,298
3.3
3,691
3.3
3,237
3.3
2,955
3.3
3,190
3.3
3,623
3.3
4,249
3.2
5,250
3.2
7,168
3.2
9,526
3.1
13,265
3.1
18,910
3.0
30,079
2.9
34,913
2.9
5,277
3.9
11,840
3.1
1,911
3.3
1,580
3.3
1,652
3.3
2,142
3.3
2,562
3.3
3,406
3.3
3,811
3.2
3,343
3.3
3,052
3.3
3,294
3.3
3,741
3.3
4,386
3.2
5,419
3.2
7,397
3.2
9,825
3.1
13,674
3.1
19,480
3.0
30,956
2.9
35,927
2.9
5,482
3.9
12,209
3.1
1,975
3.3
1,633
3.3
1,707
3.3
2,212
3.3
2,646
3.3
3,517
3.3
3,935
3.3
3,453
3.3
3,153
3.3
3,402
3.3
3,863
3.3
4,529
3.3
5,594
3.2
7,635
3.2
10,137
3.2
14,100
3.1
20,071
3.0
31,865
2.9
36,978
2.9
5,697
3.9
12,589
3.1
2,040
3.3
1,688
3.3
1,764
3.3
2,285
3.3
2,733
3.3
3,631
3.3
4,063
3.3
3,566
3.3
3,257
3.3
3,514
3.3
3,990
3.3
4,676
3.3
5,774
3.2
7,880
3.2
10,459
3.2
14,539
3.1
20,680
3.0
32,799
2.9
38,057
2.9
5,924
4.0
12,984
3.1
2,108
3.3
1,744
3.4
1,823
3.3
2,361
3.3
2,824
3.3
3,751
3.3
4,196
3.3
3,684
3.3
3,365
3.3
3,630
3.3
4,121
3.3
4,829
3.3
5,963
3.3
8,136
3.2
10,794
3.2
14,995
3.1
21,314
3.1
33,770
3.0
39,180
2.9
6,164
4.0
13,388
3.1
2,178
3.3
1,802
3.3
1,884
3.3
2,439
3.3
2,917
3.3
3,873
3.3
4,333
3.3
3,805
3.3
3,476
3.3
3,749
3.3
4,256
3.3
4,987
3.3
6,156
3.2
8,399
3.2
11,139
3.2
15,464
3.1
21,963
3.0
34,764
2.9
40,328
2.9
6,413
4.0
13,806
3.1
2,250
3.3
1,862
3.3
1,946
3.3
2,519
3.3
3,012
3.3
3,999
3.3
4,474
3.3
3,930
3.3
3,591
3.3
3,873
3.3
4,396
3.3
5,149
3.3
6,355
3.2
8,671
3.2
11,494
3.2
15,948
3.1
22,633
3.1
35,789
2.9
41,511
2.9
6,674
4.1
14,235
3.1
2,324
3.3
1,924
3.3
2,011
3.3
2,601
3.3
3,111
3.3
4,129
3.3
4,619
3.2
4,058
3.3
3,709
3.3
3,999
3.3
4,540
3.3
5,317
3.3
6,561
3.2
8,951
3.2
11,861
3.2
16,446
3.1
23,322
3.0
36,840
2.9
42,726
2.9
6,948
4.1
14,676
3.1
2,401
3.3
1,987
3.3
2,077
3.3
2,686
3.3
3,213
3.3
4,263
3.2
4,769
3.2
4,190
3.3
3,831
3.3
4,130
3.3
4,687
3.3
5,489
3.2
6,772
3.2
9,239
3.2
12,238
3.2
16,958
3.1
24,030
3.0
37,919
2.9
43,972
2.9
7,239
4.2
15,130
3.1
2,480
3.3
2,053
3.3
2,145
3.3
2,774
3.3
3,317
3.3
4,401
3.2
4,923
3.2
4,327
3.3
3,957
3.3
4,265
3.3
4,840
3.3
5,667
3.2
6,990
3.2
9,537
3.2
12,627
3.2
17,486
3.1
24,760
3.0
39,031
2.9
45,256
2.9
7,545
4.2
15,601
3.1
2,561
3.3
2,121
3.3
2,216
3.3
2,865
3.3
3,426
3.3
4,544
3.3
5,083
3.2
4,468
3.3
4,087
3.3
4,405
3.3
4,999
3.3
5,852
3.3
7,217
3.2
9,845
3.2
13,030
3.2
18,033
3.1
25,516
3.1
40,182
2.9
46,584
2.9
7,865
4.2
16,085
3.1
2,646
3.3
2,191
3.3
2,289
3.3
2,959
3.3
3,538
3.3
4,691
3.2
5,248
3.2
4,614
3.3
4,221
3.3
4,549
3.3
5,162
3.3
6,042
3.2
7,449
3.2
10,163
3.2
13,445
3.2
18,596
3.1
26,292
3.0
41,363
2.9
47,946
2.9
8,199
4.2
3.2
13,875
3.2
19,180
3.1
27,096
3.1
42,584
3.3
5,331
3.3
6,239
3.3
7,691
3.2
10,492
3.0
49,356
2.9
8,548
4.3
3,055
3.3
3,654
3.3
4,844
3.3
5,418
3.3
16,586
3.1
2,733
3.3
2,263
3.3
2,365
3.3
4,765
3.3
4,360
3.3
4,698
3.2
14,318
3.2
19,779
3.1
27,923
3.0
43,838
3.3
5,505
3.3
6,441
3.2
7,939
3.2
10,831
2.9
50,802
2.9
8,918
4.3
3,155
3.3
3,773
3.3
5,001
3.2
5,594
3.2
17,102
3.1
2,823
3.3
2,338
3.3
2,443
3.3
4,921
3.3
4,503
3.3
4,852
3.2
14,775
3.2
20,398
3.1
28,775
3.1
45,129
3.3
5,684
3.3
6,651
3.3
8,196
3.2
11,181
2.9
52,293
2.9
9,303
4.3
3,259
3.3
3,897
3.3
5,164
3.2
5,775
3.2
17,633
3.1
2,915
3.3
2,415
3.3
2,524
3.3
5,081
3.3
4,651
3.3
5,011
3.2
15,248
3.2
21,037
3.1
29,654
3.1
46,460
3.3
5,870
3.3
6,867
3.3
8,461
3.2
11,543
2.9
53,828
2.9
9,701
4.3
3,365
3.3
4,024
3.3
5,331
3.2
5,963
3.2
18,182
3.1
3,011
3.3
2,495
3.3
2,607
3.3
5,247
3.3
4,804
3.3
5,175
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
60

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 12
Education Spending— Status Quo Scenario
Total education spending
(2012 $ millions)
Elementary and secondary
2003–04 2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28 2028–29 2029–30 2030–31 2031–32 2032–33 2033–34 2034–35
54,334 56,329
3.7
62,022
10.1
63,620
2.6
68,772
8.1
71,843
4.5
75,142
4.6
77,559
3.2
79,529
2.5
79,305
–0.3
81,833 84,409
3.2
3.1
87,158 89,929
3.3
3.2
92,941 96,383 100,054 103,944 107,972 112,402 117,036 121,900 126,888 132,170 137,660 143,244 148,783 154,275 160,025 165,899 171,845 177,758
3.3
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.9
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.1
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.4
39,212 40,180
2.5
44,710
11.3
44,639
–0.2
47,356
6.1
49,787
5.1
50,730
1.9
53,297
5.1
55,060
3.3
54,244
–1.5
55,832
2.9
57,909 60,304 62,891 65,700
3.7
4.1
4.3
4.5
68,774 72,042 75,460 78,963 82,648
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.7
86,412 90,207 93,977
4.6
4.4
4.2
97,822 101,792 105,901 110,084 114,230 118,422 122,654 126,932 131,253
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
Postsecondary
15,122
73,636
16,148
6.8
74,369
1.0
17,312
7.2
80,895
8.8
18,981
9.6
80,468
–0.5
21,416
12.8
83,893
4.3
22,056
3.0
84,193
0.4
24,412
10.7
82,273
–2.3
24,262
–0.6
82,212
–0.1
24,469
0.9
81,645
–0.7
25,061
2.4
26,001 26,499 26,854
3.8
1.9
1.3
27,038
0.7
27,241 27,609
0.8
1.3
28,011 28,484 29,009
1.5
1.7
1.8
29,753 30,624
2.6
2.9
31,693 32,910 34,348 35,869
3.5
3.8
4.4
4.4
37,343 38,699 40,046
4.1
3.6
3.5
41,603 43,245
3.9
3.9
44,913 46,505
3.9
3.5
79,305 81,606 82,290 82,905 83,458 84,149 85,134 86,221 87,395 88,569 89,957 91,378 92,856 94,299 95,832 97,383 98,865 100,184 101,351 102,561 103,733 104,829 105,788
–2.9
2.9
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
0.9
Total education spending
(2012 $)
Elementary and secondary
Postsecondary
Total education spending (per student, 2012 $)
Elementary and secondary
Postsecondary
53,141
20,494
11,872
10,644
16,937
53,049
–0.2
21,320
4.0
12,022
1.3
10,709
0.6
17,300
2.1
58,315
9.9
22,580
5.9
13,142
9.3
11,864
10.8
18,204
5.2
56,460
–3.2
24,008
6.3
13,160
0.1
11,621
–2.1
19,118
5.0
57,768
2.3
26,125
8.8
13,800
4.9
12,021
3.4
20,516
7.3
58,346
1.0
25,848
–1.1
13,887
0.6
12,258
2.0
19,836
–3.3
55,544
–4.8
26,729
3.4
13,444
–3.2
11,749
–4.2
19,198
–3.2
56,494
1.7
25,717
–3.8
13,397
–0.4
12,010
2.2
17,952
–6.5
56,525
0.1
25,120
–2.3
13,328
–0.5
12,044
0.3
17,536
–2.3
54,244
–4.0
55,677 56,456
2.6
1.4
57,361 58,365 59,485
1.6
0.7
1.8
1.9
0.7
60,747 62,083 63,446
2.1
2.2
0.7
2.2
0.7
64,773
2.1
66,145
2.1
67,467
2.0
68,714 69,841 70,927 72,009 73,092
1.8
0.7
1.6
0.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
0.7
74,126 75,043
1.4
0.7
1.2
0.7
75,897 76,693
1.1
1.0
77,431
1.0
78,112
0.9
25,061 25,929 25,834 25,544 25,093 24,664 24,387 24,139 23,949 23,796 23,812 23,911 24,142 24,458 24,905 25,374 25,773 26,058 26,308 26,664 27,040 27,398 27,676
–0.2
3.5
–0.4
–1.1
–1.8
–1.7
–1.1
–1.0
–0.8
–0.6
0.1
0.4
1.0
1.3
1.8
1.9
1.6
1.1
1.0
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.0
12,938 13,281 13,446 13,507 13,554 13,601 13,658 13,702 13,741 13,773 13,828 13,872 13,922 13,972 14,043 14,121 14,196 14,259 14,311 14,378 14,449 14,523 14,598
–2.9
2.7
1.2
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
11,549
–4.1
17,494
–0.2
11,808
2.2
18,143
3.7
11,891
0.7
18,143
0.0
11,974 12,058
18,143
0.0
0.7
18,143
0.0
12,142 12,227
18,143
0.0
0.7
18,143
0.0
12,313 12,399 12,486
18,143
0.0
18,143
0.0
0.7
18,143
0.0
12,573
0.7
18,143
0.0
12,661
0.7
18,143
0.0
12,750 12,839 12,929
18,143
0.0
18,143
0.0
0.7
18,143
0.0
13,019
0.7
18,143
0.0
13,110 13,202 13,294 13,388
18,143
0.0
18,143
0.0
18,143
0.0
0.7
18,143
0.0
13,481
0.7
18,143
0.0
13,576
0.7
18,143
0.0
13,671
0.7
18,143
0.0
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
61

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 13
Low Health Scenario —Provincial Government Expenditures
($ millions)
2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28 2028–29 2029–30 2030–31 2031–32 2032–33 2033–34 2034–35
Total expenditures 230,477 243,514 258,050 279,040 290,632 308,474 321,566 330,882 334,279 347,070 358,716 372,127 386,152 402,401 420,182 437,344 454,829 472,892 491,629 510,850 530,646 551,108 572,415 594,599 617,590 641,249 665,551 690,788 717,058 744,121 771,890
Total program expenditures
5.5
5.7
6.0
8.1
4.2
6.1
4.2
2.9
1.0
3.8
3.4
3.7
3.8
4.2
4.4
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
207,625 221,208 235,878 256,786 269,422 287,328 298,657 306,935 309,696 321,265 331,765 343,523 355,841 368,903 382,830 397,306 412,404 428,098 444,665 461,996 479,960 498,554 517,928 538,096 558,941 580,303 602,138 624,777 648,268 672,366 696,964
6.2
6.5
6.6
8.9
4.9
6.6
3.9
2.8
0.9
3.7
3.3
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
Health
Social services
Education
Other program expenditures
Interest payments
Net transfer to capital assets (Nunavut)
Other adjustments to balance
86,191
7.7
22,809
2.6
56,418
5.2
37,038
7.0
23,068
–0.9
–50
–9.8
–1,712
5.0
–383
90,522
5.0
23,801
4.4
59,649
5.7
41,292
11.5
22,553
–2.2
–17
–66.9
97,520 104,952 112,239 117,842 124,010 128,808 132,892 137,374 142,705 148,820 155,363 162,332 169,661 177,285 185,263 193,645 202,464 211,768 221,439 231,558 242,133 253,269 264,946 277,132 289,787 302,932 316,772 331,096 345,894
7.7
7.6
6.9
5.0
5.2
3.9
3.2
3.4
3.9
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.5
25,312
6.3
26,555
4.9
28,231
6.3
30,359
7.5
31,449
3.6
32,496
3.3
32,473
–0.1
32,844
1.1
33,808
2.9
34,879
3.2
35,996
3.2
37,150
3.2
38,343
3.2
39,559
3.2
40,805
3.2
42,083
3.1
43,391
3.1
44,738
3.1
46,112
3.1
47,518
3.1
48,951
3.0
50,409
3.0
51,901
3.0
53,427
2.9
54,983
2.9
56,574
2.9
58,192
2.9
59,844
2.8
61,531
2.8
63,620
6.7
49,427
19.7
68,772
8.1
56,507
14.3
71,843
4.5
57,109
1.1
75,142
4.6
63,985
12.0
77,559
3.2
65,639
2.6
79,529
2.5
66,102
0.7
79,305
–0.3
65,026
–1.6
81,834
3.2
69,213
6.4
84,005
2.7
71,246
2.9
86,322
2.8
73,502
3.2
88,626
2.7
75,855
3.2
91,133
2.8
78,288
3.2
94,025
3.2
80,801
3.2
97,100 100,348 103,686 107,372 111,213 115,236 119,341 123,689 128,189 132,722 137,156 141,501 146,051 150,673 155,316 159,872
3.3
83,363
3.2
3.3
85,989
3.2
3.3
88,684
3.1
3.6
91,439
3.1
3.6
94,277
3.1
3.6
97,173
3.1
3.6
100,137
3.1
3.6
103,156
3.0
3.6
106,229
3.0
3.5
109,372
3.0
3.3
112,588
2.9
3.2
115,867
2.9
3.2
119,220
2.9
3.2
122,630
2.9
3.1
126,111
2.8
2.9
129,667
2.8
22,219
–1.5
–47
184.6
22,308
0.4
–53
12.7
21,244
–4.8
–33
–37.1
21,190
–0.3
–45
34.1
22,934
8.2
–24
–46.5
23,951
4.4
–3
–85.8
24,697
3.1
–114
3258.8
25,779
4.4
27
–123.4
26,952
4.6
0
–100.0
28,604
6.1
0
0.0
30,311
6.0
0
0.0
33,498
10.5
0
0.0
37,352
11.5
0
0.0
40,038
7.2
0
0.0
42,425
6.0
0
0.0
44,793
5.6
0
0.0
46,964
4.8
0
0.0
48,854
4.0
0
0.0
50,686
3.8
0
0.0
52,554
3.7
0
0.0
54,487
3.7
0
0.0
56,503
3.7
0
0.0
58,649
3.8
0
0.0
60,946
3.9
0
0.0
63,413
4.0
0
0.0
66,011
4.1
0
0.0
68,790
4.2
0
0.0
71,755
4.3
0
0.0
74,926
4.4
0
0.0
Stabilization reserve
Surplus/deficit
–953
–44.3
–139
–475
–50.2
–1,405
–654
37.8
–1,842
–863
31.9
2,264
–1,585
83.6
748
–1,491
–5.9
–48
–703
–52.8
298
–899
27.9
42
396
–144.0
135
655
65.6
0
443
–32.3
0
50
–88.7
0
55
10.0
0
–54
–197.8
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
Accumulated deficit
Non-financial assets
Net debt
6,515 13,533 16,489 11,134 –2,301 –26,021 –20,373 –17,574 –16,053 –16,108 –20,203 –18,570 –17,958 –18,405 –20,910 –21,965 –22,906 –23,928 –25,256 –26,396 –27,765 –29,291 –30,949 –33,175 –35,674 –38,421 –40,527 –43,395 –46,339 –49,549 –52,600
–234.2
107.7
21.8
–32.5
–120.7
1030.8
–21.7
–13.7
–8.7
0.3
25.4
–8.1
–3.3
2.5
13.6
5.0
4.3
4.5
5.6
4.5
5.2
5.5
5.7
7.2
7.5
7.7
5.5
7.1
6.8
6.9
6.2
137,918 129,640 226,034 217,409 225,762 254,551 272,650 291,264 305,844 320,831 343,533 360,520 376,224 391,839 409,623 428,367 447,955 468,464 490,199 512,969 537,001 562,449 589,443 618,548 650,036 684,152 720,252 759,095 800,757 845,499 893,160
5.1
32,802
–6.0
65,318
74.4
–3.8
3.8
12.8
7.1
6.8
5.0
4.9
7.1
4.9
4.4
4.2
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.6
92,988 103,106 116,351 142,466 163,463 182,254 202,839 220,555 232,956 241,637 247,714 251,968 254,945 257,983 261,083 264,247 267,474 270,768 274,128 277,557 281,055 284,623 288,263 291,976 295,764 299,628 303,570 307,592 311,694
124.2
99.1
42.4
10.9
12.8
22.4
14.7
11.5
11.3
8.7
5.6
3.7
2.5
1.7
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
302,351 308,595 318,907 320,354 342,093 397,188 436,627 473,949 508,805 541,386 576,490 602,157 623,938 643,806 664,568 686,351 709,038 732,711 757,674 783,737 811,130 840,006 870,497 903,170 938,299 976,128 1,016,016 1,058,724 1,104,327 1,153,090 1,204,854
–0.7
2.1
3.3
0.5
6.8
16.1
9.9
8.5
7.4
6.4
6.5
4.5
3.6
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
62

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 14
Health Care Expenditures— Low Health Scenario
($ millions)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Health care expenditures (current dollars)
Administration
Capital
Drugs
Hospitals
Other institutions
Other professionals
Other health spending
Public health
10,530
8.1
732
2.2
4,290
1.3
4,893
2.1
1,306
2.5
4,158
5.7
6,993
9.7
34,714
7.2
Physicians
Total health care expenditures
16,748
6.2
84,364 90,368
6.5
7.1
Health care expenditures (2012 $)
17,918
7.0
1,393
6.6
4,852
16.7
7,593
8.6
36,519
5.2
10,958
4.1
651
–11.1
4,632
8.0
5,853
19.6
Administration
Capital
Drugs
Hospitals
Other institutions
Other professionals
Other health spending
Public health
Physicians
Total health care expenditures
1,460
4.8
4,947
2.0
8,155
7.4
39,074
7.0
11,483
4.8
690
6.0
5,053
9.1
6,374
8.9
1,522
4.3
5,406
9.3
8,650
6.1
41,717
6.8
12,077
5.2
776
12.5
5,554
9.9
6,939
8.9
1,452
–4.6
6,440
19.1
9,147
5.7
44,682
7.1
12,686
5.0
874
12.6
6,113
10.1
7,397
6.6
1,409
–2.9
6,840
6.2
9,845
7.6
47,608
6.6
13,543
6.8
966
10.5
6,307
3.2
7,401
0.0
1,431
1.6
7,593
11.0
10,043
2.0
50,918
7.0
14,261
5.3
1,024
5.9
6,478
2.7
7,568
2.3
1,414
–1.2
7,422
–2.2
10,280
2.4
53,035
4.2
14,570
2.2
1,094
6.9
6,583
1.6
7,955
5.1
1,489
5.3
7,178
–3.3
10,537
2.5
55,002
3.7
15,012
3.0
1,205
10.2
6,785
3.1
8,127
2.2
1,527
2.6
7,488
4.3
10,476
–0.6
56,446
2.6
15,342
2.2
1,264
4.8
7,013
3.4
8,317
2.3
1,569
2.7
7,721
3.1
10,448
–0.3
58,944
4.4
16,116
5.0
1,319
4.4
7,205
2.7
8,545
2.7
1,619
3.2
8,004
3.7
10,583
1.3
61,729
4.7
16,976
5.3
1,380
4.6
7,435
3.2
8,818
3.2
1,672
3.2
8,300
3.7
10,817
2.2
64,679
4.8
17,895
5.4
1,444
4.6
7,675
3.2
9,102
3.2
1,726
3.2
8,610
3.7
11,125
2.8
67,814
4.8
18,863
5.4
1,511
4.7
7,923
3.2
9,396
3.2
1,781
3.2
8,912
3.5
11,486
3.3
71,114
4.9
19,883
5.4
1,583
4.7
8,179
3.2
9,700
3.2
1,838
3.2
9,224
3.5
11,890
3.5
74,546
4.8
20,935
5.3
1,657
4.7
8,441
3.2
10,011
3.2
1,897
3.2
9,555
3.6
12,331
3.7
78,124
4.8
22,055
5.4
1,735
4.7
8,709
3.2
10,328
3.2
1,957
3.2
9,895
3.6
12,796
3.8
81,879
4.8
23,273
5.5
1,818
4.8
8,985
3.2
10,655
3.2
2,018
3.1
10,240
3.5
13,293
3.9
85,839
4.8
24,599
5.7
1,905
4.8
9,266
3.1
10,989
3.1
2,081
3.1
10,595
3.5
13,813
3.9
90,014
4.9
26,044
5.9
1,997
4.8
9,556
3.1
11,333
3.1
2,146
3.1
10,957
3.4
14,353
3.9
94,343
4.8
27,587
5.9
2,092
4.8
9,852
3.1
11,684
3.1
2,212
3.1
11,327
3.4
14,917
3.9
98,870
4.8
29,243
6.0
2,192
4.8
10,156
3.1
12,044
3.1
2,279
3.0
11,705
3.3
15,498
3.9
103,572
4.8
31,072
6.3
2,297
4.8
10,465
3.0
12,410
3.0
2,348
3.0
12,088
3.3
16,094
3.9
108,507
4.8
33,119
6.6
2,408
4.8
10,779
3.0
12,783
3.0
2,418
3.0
12,479
3.2
16,713
3.8
113,673
4.8
35,335
6.7
2,524
4.8
11,101
3.0
13,165
3.0
2,489
3.0
12,876
3.2
17,342
3.8
119,067
4.7
37,692
6.7
2,645
4.8
11,430
3.0
13,555
3.0
2,562
2.9
13,286
3.2
17,979
3.7
124,677
4.7
40,181
6.6
2,771
4.7
11,765
2.9
13,953
2.9
2,637
2.9
13,702
3.1
18,604
3.5
130,491
4.7
42,853
6.7
2,902
4.7
12,109
2.9
14,360
2.9
2,713
2.9
14,131
3.1
19,224
3.3
136,543
4.6
45,889
7.1
3,041
4.8
12,458
2.9
14,774
2.9
2,791
2.9
14,567
3.1
19,851
3.3
142,830
4.6
49,040
6.9
3,185
4.7
12,815
2.9
15,197
2.9
2,870
2.8
15,015
3.1
20,486
3.2
149,341
4.6
52,301
6.7
3,333
4.7
13,178
2.8
15,629
2.8
19,319
7.8
20,873
8.0
22,894
9.7
24,784
8.3
26,636
7.5
28,342
6.4
29,338
3.5
30,399
3.6
31,770
4.5
33,248
4.7
34,797
4.7
36,427
4.7
38,132
4.7
39,902
4.6
41,740
4.6
43,652
4.6
45,639
4.6
47,720
4.6
49,871
4.5
52,111
4.5
54,418
4.4
56,798
4.4
59,271
4.4
61,846
4.3
64,507
4.3
67,253
4.3
70,069
4.2
72,985
4.2
76,002
4.1
96,555 103,515 111,684 118,703 125,951 130,695 134,674 138,272 143,638 149,793 156,379 163,393 170,770 178,444 186,474 194,911 203,787 213,153 222,886 233,071 243,715 254,925 266,678 278,944 291,682 304,913 318,843 333,260 348,155
6.8
7.2
7.9
6.3
6.1
3.8
3.0
2.7
3.9
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.5
13,007
2.7
925
–4.2
4,987
–0.5
5,688
0.3
1,519
0.7
5,122
3.4
6,650
10.4
42,198
2.5
1,584
4.3
5,856
14.3
7,132
7.2
43,510
3.1
13,267
2.0
807
–12.8
5,268
5.6
6,657
17.0
1,628
2.7
5,738
–2.0
7,641
7.1
45,686
5.0
13,637
2.8
839
4.0
5,635
7.0
7,108
6.8
1,662
2.1
6,056
5.5
8,086
5.8
47,162
3.2
13,822
1.4
904
7.8
6,064
7.6
7,576
6.6
1,548
–6.8
6,812
12.5
8,583
6.2
48,753
3.4
13,964
1.0
973
7.7
6,519
7.5
7,889
4.1
1,498
–3.2
7,203
5.7
9,025
5.1
49,452
1.4
14,076
0.8
997
2.4
6,706
2.9
7,869
–0.2
1,495
–0.2
7,985
10.9
9,408
4.2
52,183
5.5
14,615
3.8
1,043
4.6
6,768
0.9
7,906
0.5
1,436
–4.0
7,586
–5.0
9,984
6.1
53,740
3.0
14,779
1.1
1,110
6.4
6,683
–1.3
8,076
2.1
1,489
3.7
7,178
–5.4
10,537
5.5
55,002
2.3
15,012
1.6
1,205
8.6
6,785
1.5
8,127
0.6
1,513
1.6
7,331
2.1
10,896
3.4
55,829
1.5
15,148
0.9
1,246
3.4
6,948
2.4
8,240
1.4
1,530
1.1
7,412
1.1
11,160
2.4
57,054
2.2
15,536
2.6
1,266
1.7
7,026
1.1
8,332
1.1
1,547
1.1
7,497
1.1
11,431
2.4
58,316
2.2
15,946
2.6
1,288
1.7
7,105
1.1
8,426
1.1
1,565
1.1
7,583
1.1
11,711
2.5
59,614
2.2
16,377
2.7
1,310
1.7
7,187
1.1
8,523
1.1
1,583
1.1
7,670
1.1
12,006
2.5
60,962
2.3
16,815
2.7
1,333
1.8
7,270
1.1
8,621
1.1
1,601
1.1
7,758
1.1
12,311
2.5
62,340
2.3
17,263
2.7
1,357
1.8
7,353
1.1
8,720
1.1
1,620
1.1
7,846
1.1
12,626
2.6
63,729
2.2
17,706
2.6
1,382
1.8
7,436
1.1
8,819
1.1
1,638
1.1
7,934
1.1
12,951
2.6
65,145
2.2
18,176
2.7
1,407
1.8
7,520
1.1
8,918
1.1
1,656
1.1
8,021
1.1
13,280
2.5
66,586
2.2
18,685
2.8
1,434
1.9
7,603
1.1
9,016
1.1
1,674
1.1
8,108
1.1
13,621
2.6
68,083
2.2
19,242
3.0
1,461
1.9
7,684
1.1
9,113
1.1
1,691
1.1
8,194
1.1
13,970
2.6
69,612
2.2
19,844
3.1
1,489
1.9
7,766
1.1
9,210
1.1
1,709
1.0
8,279
1.0
14,323
2.5
71,155
2.2
20,478
3.2
1,517
1.9
7,847
1.0
9,306
1.0
1,727
1.0
8,365
1.0
14,685
2.5
72,721
2.2
21,149
3.3
1,546
1.9
7,928
1.0
9,402
1.0
1,744
1.0
8,449
1.0
15,048
2.5
74,300
2.2
21,896
3.5
1,575
1.9
8,007
1.0
9,496
1.0
1,761
1.0
8,531
1.0
15,413
2.4
75,927
2.2
22,743
3.9
1,606
2.0
8,086
1.0
9,589
1.0
1,778
1.0
8,612
1.0
15,785
2.4
77,584
2.2
23,645
4.0
1,638
2.0
8,163
1.0
9,680
1.0
1,794
0.9
8,692
0.9
16,153
2.3
79,255
2.2
24,574
3.9
1,669
1.9
8,238
0.9
9,770
0.9
1,811
0.9
8,771
0.9
16,514
2.2
80,944
2.1
25,526
3.9
1,701
1.9
8,313
0.9
9,859
0.9
1,827
0.9
8,848
0.9
16,852
2.0
82,618
2.1
26,524
3.9
1,732
1.9
8,386
0.9
9,946
0.9
1,842
0.9
8,924
0.9
17,172
1.9
84,315
2.1
27,675
4.3
1,766
1.9
8,458
0.9
10,031
0.9
1,858
0.8
8,999
0.8
17,486
1.8
86,018
2.0
28,817
4.1
1,798
1.9
8,529
0.8
10,114
0.8
1,873
0.8
9,072
0.8
17,795
1.8
87,715
2.0
21,157
–0.4
22,198
4.9
23,479
5.8
24,303
3.5
25,493
4.9
25,581
0.3
27,136
6.1
28,748
5.9
29,338
2.1
29,971
2.2
30,497
1.8
31,036
1.8
31,583
1.8
32,142
1.8
32,707
1.8
33,276
1.7
33,851
1.7
34,424 35,000
1.7
1.7
35,579
1.7
36,159
1.6
36,742
1.6
37,316
1.6
37,885
1.5
38,456
1.5
39,024
1.5
39,592
1.5
40,144
1.4
40,681
1.3
41,216
1.3
41,746
1.3
101,254 106,278 111,389 115,633 120,535 122,408 128,540 132,142 134,674 137,122 139,813 142,594 145,454 148,402 151,410 154,440 157,539 160,703 163,986 167,354 170,774 174,264 177,832 181,541 185,339 189,171 193,030 196,877 200,865 204,836 208,772
2.1
5.0
4.8
3.8
4.2
1.6
5.0
2.8
1.9
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
29,946
3.9
1,831
1.8
8,598
0.8
10,197
0.8
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
63

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 15
Health Care Expenditures Per Capita— Low Health Scenario
2004 2005
Health care expenditures (per capita, 2012 $)
Administration 48 49
Capital
–0.3
160
3.3
182
Drugs
Hospitals
2.4
208
9.4
1,321
1.6
13.2
221
6.2
1,349
2.1
Other institutions
Other professionals
Other health spending
Public health
Physicians
Total health care expenditures
407
1.7
29
–5.1
156
–1.4
178
–0.7
662
–1.3
3,170
1.1
411
1.0
25
–13.6
163
4.6
206
15.9
688
3.9
3,296
4.0
Inflation by sector
Administration
Capital
Drugs
Hospitals
Other institutions
Other professionals
Other health spending
Public health
Physicians
Total health care expenditures
79
6.7
83
4.4
86
1.9
86
1.9
105
–0.6
82
4.6
81
5.3
79
6.7
86
1.9
81
2.2
81
2.0
85
2.1
88
2.2
88
2.2
83
2.0
81
2.0
106
1.2
84
2.0
88
2.2
83
2.1
2006
50
1.7
176
–3.0
235
6.1
1,403
3.9
419
1.8
26
2.9
173
5.9
218
5.7
721
4.7
3,420
3.8
82
1.9
87
1.9
90
2.0
90
2.0
84
1.9
82
1.9
107
0.2
86
1.9
90
2.0
86
4.1
2007
51
1.1
184
4.5
246
4.8
1,434
2.2
420
0.4
27
6.8
184
6.6
230
5.6
739
2.5
3,516
2.8
92
2.1
89
3.5
107
0.2
88
3.4
87
3.8
86
4.4
92
2.1
92
2.1
86
4.4
90
3.3
2008
47
–7.8
205
11.3
258
5.0
1,466
2.3
420
–0.1
29
6.5
196
6.4
237
3.0
767
3.8
3,626
3.1
94
2.4
95
5.9
107
–0.4
92
3.6
91
4.0
90
4.6
94
2.4
94
2.4
90
4.6
93
3.5
2009
45
–4.3
214
4.5
268
4.0
1,471
0.3
419
–0.3
30
1.3
199
1.7
234
–1.4
761
–0.8
3,640
0.4
94
0.3
95
0.5
109
2.4
96
5.0
96
5.9
97
7.9
94
0.3
94
0.3
97
7.9
97
4.7
2010
44
–1.3
235
9.6
277
3.1
1,535
4.4
430
2.7
31
3.4
199
–0.2
233
–0.6
798
4.9
3,780
3.8
96
1.8
95
0.1
107
–2.1
98
1.4
98
1.4
98
1.3
96
1.8
96
1.8
98
1.3
98
1.0
2011
42
–4.9
221
–5.9
291
5.1
1,565
2.0
430
0.1
32
5.4
195
–2.2
235
1.1
837
4.9
3,848
1.8
99
2.9
98
2.9
103
–3.5
99
1.1
99
1.0
99
0.4
99
2.9
99
2.9
99
0.4
99
0.9
2012
43
2.5
207
–6.5
303
4.3
1,583
1.1
432
0.4
35
7.3
195
0.3
234
–0.6
844
0.8
3,875
0.7
100
1.5
100
2.2
100
–2.9
100
1.3
100
1.4
100
1.4
100
1.5
100
1.5
100
1.4
100
1.1
2013
43
0.4
209
0.9
310
2.2
1,588
0.3
431
–0.3
35
2.2
198
1.2
234
0.2
852
1.0
3,900
0.6
101
0.9
102
2.2
96
–3.9
101
1.1
101
1.3
101
1.4
101
0.9
101
0.9
101
1.4
101
0.8
2014
43
0.0
209
0.0
314
1.3
1,605
1.1
437
1.4
36
0.5
198
0.0
234
0.0
858
0.6
3,933
0.8
103
1.6
104
2.0
94
–2.6
103
2.2
104
2.4
104
2.7
103
1.6
103
1.6
104
2.7
103
1.9
2015
107
2.8
105
2.3
105
2.0
105
2.0
106
2.6
107
2.8
93
–1.1
106
2.5
105
2.0
107
2.5
2016
110
2.8
108
2.3
107
2.0
107
2.0
92
–0.2
108
2.5
109
2.6
110
2.8
107
2.0
109
2.5
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
863
0.6
3,966
0.8
198
0.0
234
0.0
444
1.5
36
0.6
318
1.3
1,622
1.1
43
0.0
209
0.0
868
0.6
4,000
0.8
198
0.0
234
0.0
450
1.5
36
0.6
322
1.3
1,639
1.1
43
0.0
209
0.0
2017 2018 2019
879
0.6
4,069
0.9
198
0.0
234
0.0
464
1.5
36
0.6
331
1.4
1,675
1.1
43
0.0
209
0.0
874
0.6
4,034
0.9
198
0.0
234
0.0
457
1.5
36
0.6
326
1.4
1,657
1.1
43
0.0
209
0.0
113
2.9
110
2.4
109
2.1
109
2.1
112
2.7
113
2.9
93
0.3
111
2.5
109
2.1
112
2.6
117
2.9
113
2.4
111
2.1
111
2.1
115
2.7
117
2.9
93
0.7
114
2.5
111
2.1
115
2.3
884
0.6
4,104
0.9
198
0.0
234
0.0
471
1.4
37
0.7
336
1.4
1,694
1.1
43
0.0
209
0.0
120
2.9
116
2.4
114
2.0
114
2.0
118
2.7
120
2.9
94
0.9
117
2.5
114
2.0
118
2.3
2020
890
0.6
4,140
0.9
198
0.0
234
0.0
478
1.5
37
0.7
340
1.4
1,712
1.1
43
0.0
209
0.0
123
2.8
118
2.4
116
2.0
116
2.0
121
2.6
123
2.8
95
1.1
120
2.5
116
2.0
120
2.4
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
900
0.6
4,217
1.0
198
0.0
234
0.0
495
1.9
38
0.8
350
1.5
1,751
1.2
43
0.0
209
0.0
130
2.8
124
2.5
121
2.0
121
2.0
128
2.6
130
2.8
98
1.3
126
2.5
121
2.0
126
2.4
895
0.6
4,177
0.9
198
0.0
234
0.0
486
1.7
37
0.8
345
1.4
1,731
1.1
43
0.0
209
0.0
127
2.8
121
2.5
118
2.0
118
2.0
125
2.6
127
2.8
96
1.2
123
2.5
118
2.0
123
2.4
916
0.6
4,344
1.0
198
0.0
234
0.0
527
2.2
39
0.9
366
1.5
1,813
1.2
43
0.0
209
0.0
911
0.6
4,301
1.0
198
0.0
234
0.0
516
2.1
38
0.8
361
1.5
1,792
1.2
43
0.0
209
0.0
138
2.8
131
2.5
126
2.0
126
2.0
135
2.6
138
2.8
100
1.4
133
2.5
126
2.0
132
2.3
142
2.8
134
2.5
128
2.0
128
2.0
138
2.6
142
2.8
102
1.4
136
2.5
128
2.0
135
2.3
905
0.6
4,259
1.0
198
0.0
234
0.0
505
2.0
38
0.8
355
1.5
1,771
1.2
43
0.0
209
0.0
134
2.9
127
2.5
123
2.0
123
2.0
131
2.7
134
2.9
99
1.3
129
2.6
123
2.0
129
2.4
926
0.5
4,437
1.1
198
0.0
234
0.0
556
2.9
39
1.0
377
1.4
1,856
1.2
43
0.0
209
0.0
150
2.8
140
2.5
133
2.0
133
2.0
146
2.6
150
2.8
104
1.4
143
2.5
133
2.0
142
2.3
921
0.6
4,389
1.0
198
0.0
234
0.0
540
2.5
39
0.9
371
1.5
1,834
1.2
43
0.0
209
0.0
146
2.8
137
2.5
131
2.0
131
2.0
142
2.6
146
2.8
103
1.4
139
2.5
131
2.0
139
2.3
936
0.5
4,538
1.1
198
0.0
234
0.0
589
3.0
40
1.0
387
1.4
1,901
1.2
43
0.0
209
0.0
931
0.5
4,487
1.1
198
0.0
234
0.0
572
3.0
40
1.0
382
1.4
1,878
1.2
43
0.0
209
0.0
154
2.8
144
2.5
136
2.0
136
2.0
149
2.6
154
2.8
106
1.4
147
2.5
136
2.0
145
2.3
158
2.8
147
2.5
139
2.0
139
2.0
153
2.6
158
2.8
107
1.4
150
2.5
139
2.0
148
2.2
955
0.5
4,746
1.1
198
0.0
234
0.0
668
3.3
42
1.0
405
1.0
1,993
1.2
43
0.0
209
0.0
177
2.8
163
2.5
150
2.0
150
2.0
170
2.6
177
2.8
114
1.4
166
2.5
150
2.0
162
2.2
950
0.5
4,693
1.2
198
0.0
234
0.0
647
3.5
41
1.1
401
1.0
1,970
1.2
43
0.0
209
0.0
172
2.8
159
2.5
147
2.0
147
2.0
166
2.6
172
2.8
112
1.4
162
2.5
147
2.0
158
2.2
946
0.5
4,639
1.1
198
0.0
234
0.0
625
3.0
41
1.0
397
1.2
1,947
1.2
43
0.0
209
0.0
168
2.8
155
2.5
144
2.0
144
2.0
162
2.6
168
2.8
110
1.4
158
2.5
144
2.0
155
2.2
941
0.5
4,589
1.1
198
0.0
234
0.0
607
2.9
40
1.0
393
1.3
1,924
1.2
43
0.0
209
0.0
163
2.8
151
2.5
142
2.0
142
2.0
157
2.6
163
2.8
109
1.4
154
2.5
142
2.0
151
2.3
959
0.5
4,798
1.1
198
0.0
234
0.0
688
3.1
42
1.0
409
0.9
2,016
1.2
43
0.0
209
0.0
182
2.8
167
2.5
153
2.0
153
2.0
175
2.6
182
2.8
115
1.4
170
2.5
153
2.0
166
2.2
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
64

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 16
Health Care Expenditures by Age Category, Males— Low Health Scenario
($ per capita)
Age 0–1
Age 1–4
Age 5–9
Age 10–14
Age 15–19
Age 20–24
Age 25–29
Age 30–34
Age 35–39
Age 40–44
Age 45–49
Age 50–54
Age 55–59
Age 60–64
Age 65–69
Age 70–74
Age 75–79
Age 80–84
Age 85–89
Age 90+
All ages
2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28 2028–29 2029–30 2030–31 2031–32 203233 2033–34 2034–35
3.5
7,522
3.7
10,101
3.3
12,848
2.7
19,650
5.8
2,228
6.8
2,831
7.1
3,665
6.3
5,523
0.2
24,014
6.3
2,516
6.6
1,061
9.6
1,125
10.2
1,136
7.8
1,207
6.9
7,876
3.6
1,223
9.6
984
9.9
934
11.8
1,360
7.9
1,505
5.9
1,790
4.1
7,924
5.3
10,548
4.4
13,599
5.8
19,831
4.6
2,343
5.1
2,981
5.3
3,866
5.5
5,747
0.9
25,710
7.1
2,666
6.0
1,115
5.1
1,157
2.8
1,177
3.6
1,258
4.2
8,230
4.5
1,281
4.8
1,032
4.8
986
5.6
1,408
3.6
1,574
4.6
1,873
5.7
8,248
4.1
10,944
3.8
14,253
4.8
19,978
7.5
2,490
6.3
3,181
6.7
4,127
6.7
6,078
0.7
25,632
–0.3
2,851
7.0
1,224
9.7
1,243
7.4
1,281
8.8
1,346
7.0
8,735
6.1
1,386
8.2
1,103
6.9
1,076
9.2
1,502
6.7
1,675
6.4
2,013
4.2
7,252
4.8
9,775
5.7
12,504
6.4
19,609
5.4
2,087
5.0
2,643
5.0
3,449
4.4
5,335
7.9
22,592
12.1
2,360
6.0
968
3.0
1,022
4.7
1,054
4.7
1,129
2.9
1,261
3.1
1,422
3.9
1,693
7,606
4.5
1,116
3.1
896
3.6
835
2.5
9,346
7.0
1,492
7.6
1,207
9.4
1,173
9.0
1,314
7.3
1,324
6.5
1,373
7.2
1,448
7.6
1,607
7.0
1,819
8.6
2,136
6.1
2,642
6.1
3,365
5.8
4,330
4.9
6,392
5.2
8,643
4.8
11,456
4.7
15,056
5.6
21,106
5.6
26,771
4.4
3,058
7.3
9,851
5.4
1,509
1.2
1,255
4.0
1,208
3.0
1,363
3.7
1,366
3.2
1,415
3.1
1,507
4.1
1,677
4.4
1,914
5.2
2,228
4.3
2,761
4.5
3,480
3.4
4,520
4.4
6,606
3.4
8,910
3.1
11,990
4.7
15,755
4.6
22,164
5.0
27,655
3.3
3,215
5.1
10,485
6.4
1,584
5.0
1,313
4.7
1,271
5.2
1,412
3.6
1,441
5.5
1,492
5.5
1,582
5.0
1,744
4.0
2,003
4.7
2,335
4.8
2,866
3.8
3,627
4.2
4,740
4.9
6,835
3.5
9,150
2.7
12,338
2.9
16,342
3.7
23,209
4.7
28,364
2.6
3,383
5.2
10,661
1.7
1,605
1.3
1,350
2.8
1,321
3.9
1,445
2.3
1,483
2.9
1,560
4.5
1,635
3.4
1,786
2.4
2,054
2.5
2,395
2.6
2,920
1.9
3,716
2.5
4,823
1.8
6,963
1.9
9,259
1.2
12,524
1.5
16,589
1.5
23,609
1.7
27,581
–2.8
3,489
3.1
10,762
0.9
1,614
0.6
1,339
–0.8
1,333
0.9
1,469
1.7
1,466
–1.1
1,547
–0.8
1,643
0.5
1,795
0.5
2,067
0.7
2,414
0.8
2,960
1.4
3,762
1.2
4,886
1.3
7,037
1.1
9,357
1.1
12,651
1.0
16,742
0.9
23,753
0.6
27,684
0.4
3,559
2.0
10,811
0.5
1,636
1.4
1,361
1.6
1,352
1.4
1,488
1.3
1,484
1.2
1,565
1.1
1,661
1.1
1,813
1.0
2,087
0.9
2,434
0.8
2,981
0.7
3,786
0.6
4,912
0.5
7,052
0.2
9,368
0.1
12,657
0.0
16,735
0.0
23,709
–0.2
27,632
–0.2
3,622
1.8
11,050
2.2
1,670
2.1
1,388
2.0
1,378
1.9
1,517
2.0
1,512
1.9
1,594
1.8
1,691
1.8
1,847
1.8
2,124
1.8
2,478
1.8
3,037
1.9
3,858
1.9
5,008
1.9
7,170
1.7
9,527
1.7
12,881
1.8
17,045
1.9
24,179
2.0
28,190
2.0
3,726
2.9
11,324
2.5
1,711
2.4
1,421
2.4
1,410
2.3
1,552
2.3
1,547
2.3
1,630
2.2
1,729
2.2
1,888
2.2
2,171
2.2
2,532
2.2
3,105
2.2
3,946
2.3
5,123
2.3
7,321
2.1
9,728
2.1
13,161
2.2
17,424
2.2
24,739
2.3
28,850
2.3
3,848
3.3
11,608
2.5
1,753
2.4
1,455
2.4
1,443
2.4
1,589
2.4
1,583
2.3
1,667
2.3
1,769
2.3
1,931
2.3
2,221
2.3
2,591
2.3
3,177
2.3
4,039
2.4
5,245
2.4
7,486
2.2
9,947
2.3
13,463
2.3
17,831
2.3
25,333
2.4
29,549
2.4
3,978
3.4
11,904
2.5
1,796
2.5
1,490
2.4
1,478
2.4
1,627
2.4
1,621
2.4
1,707
2.4
1,810
2.4
1,977
2.4
2,274
2.4
2,652
2.4
3,254
2.4
4,137
2.4
5,373
2.4
7,661
2.3
10,181
2.3
13,784
2.4
18,261
2.4
25,958
2.5
30,282
2.5
4,116
3.5
12,209
2.6
1,840
2.5
1,526
2.4
1,513
2.4
1,666
2.4
1,659
2.4
1,747
2.4
1,853
2.4
2,024
2.4
2,328
2.4
2,716
2.4
3,333
2.4
4,239
2.5
5,506
2.5
7,844
2.4
10,425
2.4
14,119
2.4
18,710
2.5
26,609
2.5
31,044
2.5
4,260
3.5
12,520
2.5
1,885
2.5
1,563
2.4
1,549
2.4
1,706
2.4
1,699
2.4
1,788
2.4
1,897
2.4
2,072
2.4
2,384
2.4
2,781
2.4
3,414
2.4
4,343
2.5
5,642
2.5
8,033
2.4
10,677
2.4
14,464
2.4
19,171
2.5
27,276
2.5
31,825
2.5
4,410
3.5
12,837
2.5
1,932
2.5
1,600
2.4
1,586
2.4
1,747
2.4
1,739
2.4
1,831
2.4
1,942
2.4
2,122
2.4
2,441
2.4
2,848
2.4
3,497
2.4
4,450
2.5
5,782
2.5
8,227
2.4
10,936
2.4
14,818
2.4
19,644
2.5
27,958
2.5
32,624
2.5
4,565
3.5
13,164
2.6
1,979
2.5
1,639
2.4
1,624
2.4
1,789
2.4
1,781
2.4
1,875
2.4
1,989
2.4
2,173
2.4
2,500
2.4
2,917
2.4
3,583
2.5
4,560
2.5
5,926
2.5
8,427
2.4
11,203
2.4
15,184
2.5
20,133
2.5
28,664
2.5
33,450
2.5
4,726
3.5
13,499
2.5
2,028
2.4
1,679
2.4
1,662
2.4
1,832
2.4
1,823
2.4
1,919
2.4
2,036
2.4
2,225
2.4
2,561
2.4
2,988
2.4
3,670
2.4
4,673
2.5
6,074
2.5
8,633
2.4
11,478
2.4
15,559
2.5
20,634
2.5
29,386
2.5
34,295
2.5
4,896
3.6
13,846
2.6
2,078
2.5
1,719
2.4
1,702
2.4
1,876
2.4
1,867
2.4
1,965
2.4
2,085
2.4
2,279
2.4
2,623
2.4
3,061
2.5
3,761
2.5
4,789
2.5
6,227
2.5
8,846
2.5
11,762
2.5
15,948
2.5
21,154
2.5
30,135
2.5
35,171
2.6
5,075
3.6
14,198
2.5
2,129
2.5
1,761
2.4
1,743
2.4
1,921
2.4
1,911
2.4
2,012
2.4
2,135
2.4
2,333
2.4
2,686
2.4
3,136
2.4
3,854
2.5
4,908
2.5
6,382
2.5
9,064
2.5
12,052
2.5
16,344
2.5
21,683
2.5
30,898
2.5
36,063
2.5
5,258
3.6
14,560
2.5
2,181
2.4
1,803
2.4
1,784
2.4
1,967
2.4
1,957
2.4
2,060
2.4
2,186
2.4
2,389
2.4
2,751
2.4
3,212
2.4
3,948
2.5
5,030
2.5
6,542
2.5
9,286
2.5
12,349
2.5
16,750
2.5
22,226
2.5
31,681
2.5
36,979
2.5
5,449
3.6
14,930
2.5
2,234
2.4
1,846
2.4
1,826
2.4
2,014
2.4
2,003
2.4
2,109
2.4
2,238
2.4
2,447
2.4
2,818
2.4
3,290
2.4
4,045
2.5
5,155
2.5
6,705
2.5
9,514
2.5
12,653
2.5
17,166
2.5
22,781
2.5
32,481
2.5
37,915
2.5
5,646
3.6
15,307
2.5
2,288
2.4
1,890
2.4
1,869
2.4
2,062
2.4
2,051
2.4
2,159
2.4
2,291
2.4
2,505
2.4
2,885
2.4
3,369
2.4
4,144
2.4
5,282
2.5
6,872
2.5
9,747
2.4
12,964
2.5
17,590
2.5
23,348
2.5
33,298
2.5
38,871
2.5
5,852
3.7
15,694
2.5
2,344
2.4
1,935
2.4
1,913
2.4
2,111
2.4
2,099
2.4
2,210
2.4
2,346
2.4
2,565
2.4
2,955
2.4
3,451
2.4
4,245
2.4
5,412
2.5
7,042
2.5
9,985
2.4
13,282
2.5
18,025
2.5
23,930
2.5
34,137
2.5
39,852
2.5
6,067
3.7
16,093
2.5
2,401
2.4
1,982
2.4
1,959
2.4
2,161
2.4
2,149
2.4
2,262
2.4
2,401
2.4
2,626
2.4
3,026
2.4
3,534
2.4
4,350
2.5
5,546
2.5
7,218
2.5
10,231
2.5
13,610
2.5
18,474
2.5
24,529
2.5
35,001
2.5
40,864
2.5
6,289
3.7
16,501
2.5
2,459
2.4
2,029
2.4
2,005
2.4
2,213
2.4
2,199
2.4
2,315
2.4
2,458
2.4
2,689
2.4
3,099
2.4
3,620
2.4
4,456
2.4
5,684
2.5
7,398
2.5
10,482
2.5
13,945
2.5
18,933
2.5
25,142
2.5
35,885
2.5
41,898
2.5
6,518
3.6
2.5
14,290
2.5
19,405
2.5
25,773
2.5
36,796
2.4
4,566
2.5
5,825
2.5
7,584
2.5
10,741
2.5
42,964
2.5
6,754
3.6
2,265
2.4
2,252
2.4
2,370
2.4
2,517
2.4
16,921
2.5
2,519
2.4
2,078
2.4
2,052
2.4
2,753
2.4
3,174
2.4
3,708
2.5
14,643
2.5
19,888
2.5
26,419
2.5
37,727
2.4
4,678
2.5
5,969
2.5
7,773
2.5
11,005
2.5
44,052
2.5
6,998
3.6
2,319
2.4
2,305
2.4
2,426
2.4
2,577
2.4
17,351
2.5
2,580
2.4
2,127
2.4
2,101
2.4
2,819
2.4
3,250
2.4
3,798
2.5
15,005
2.5
20,383
2.5
27,080
2.5
38,682
2.4
4,792
2.5
6,117
2.5
7,967
2.5
11,276
2.5
45,170
2.5
7,249
3.6
2,374
2.4
2,359
2.4
2,484
2.4
2,638
2.4
17,791
2.5
2,643
2.4
2,178
2.4
2,150
2.4
2,887
2.4
3,328
2.4
3,890
2.5
15,376
2.5
20,891
2.5
27,760
2.5
39,662
2.4
4,910
2.5
6,269
2.5
8,166
2.5
11,554
2.5
46,317
2.5
7,507
3.6
2,431
2.4
2,415
2.4
2,543
2.4
2,701
2.4
18,244
2.5
2,708
2.4
2,230
2.4
2,201
2.4
2,956
2.4
3,409
2.4
3,985
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
65

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 17
Health Care Expenditures, Female— Low Health Scenario
($ per capita)
Age 0–1
Age 1–4
Age 5–9
Age 10–14
Age 15–19
Age 20–24
Age 25–29
Age 30–34
Age 35–39
Age 40–44
Age 45–49
Age 50–54
Age 55–59
Age 60–64
Age 65–69
Age 70–74
Age 75–79
Age 80–84
Age 85–89
Age 90+
All ages
2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28 2028–29 2029–30 2030–31 2031–32 203233 2033–34 2034–35
3.8
6,494
3.8
8,880
3.1
12,648
3.3
21,781
6.5
2,243
6.3
2,653
7.6
3,298
7.9
4,797
–0.5
24,239
3.7
3,085
5.7
1,269
7.2
1,652
6.0
2,171
5.3
2,332
5.5
1,969
7.7
1,782
6.7
1,990
7,120
4.3
1,116
7.2
926
8.7
902
10.4
3.7
6,834
5.2
9,336
5.1
13,143
3.9
22,611
3.6
2,349
4.7
2,775
4.6
3,453
4.7
4,975
3.8
25,161
3.8
3,258
5.6
1,327
4.6
1,730
4.8
2,263
4.3
2,456
5.3
2,075
5.4
1,864
4.6
2,060
7,493
5.2
1,183
6.0
969
4.6
952
5.6
4.7
7,084
3.7
9,744
4.4
13,747
4.6
23,067
6.0
2,480
5.6
2,945
6.2
3,651
5.7
5,210
2.0
26,282
4.5
3,438
5.5
1,426
7.4
1,784
3.1
2,323
2.7
2,520
2.6
7,915
5.6
1,259
6.4
1,041
7.4
1,039
9.1
2,171
4.6
1,976
6.0
2,183
4.6
6,257
4.1
8,614
4.6
12,248
5.2
21,900
4.7
2,111
4.2
2,465
3.7
3,057
4.4
4,621
4.5
23,368
10.0
2,918
5.2
1,184
2.3
1,558
1.9
2,061
2.5
2,211
4.5
6,826
3.9
1,041
2.7
852
4.5
817
2.5
1,828
4.1
1,671
3.0
1,867
8,323
5.2
1,360
8.0
1,121
7.7
1,130
8.8
1,515
6.2
1,894
6.2
2,451
5.5
2,658
5.5
2,318
6.8
2,120
7.3
2,335
6.9
2,644
6.6
3,114
5.7
3,846
5.3
5,469
5.0
7,405
4.5
10,159
4.3
14,380
4.6
23,858
3.4
27,639
5.2
3,655
6.3
8,676
4.2
1,404
3.2
1,152
2.8
1,183
4.7
1,570
3.7
1,954
3.1
2,545
3.9
2,779
4.6
2,441
5.3
2,239
5.6
2,447
4.8
2,788
5.4
3,269
5.0
4,024
4.6
5,722
4.6
7,633
3.1
10,621
4.5
15,028
4.5
24,759
3.8
28,442
2.9
3,839
5.0
9,177
5.8
1,462
4.1
1,206
4.7
1,242
5.0
1,634
4.1
1,999
2.3
2,638
3.6
2,903
4.5
2,547
4.3
2,348
4.9
2,532
3.5
2,900
4.0
3,386
3.6
4,215
4.8
5,878
2.7
7,867
3.1
11,036
3.9
15,717
4.6
25,320
2.3
29,838
4.9
4,019
4.7
9,467
3.2
1,504
2.9
1,238
2.6
1,288
3.8
1,669
2.2
2,020
1.1
2,690
2.0
3,003
3.4
2,630
3.3
2,403
2.3
2,608
3.0
2,955
1.9
3,487
3.0
4,315
2.4
5,949
1.2
7,926
0.8
11,096
0.5
15,896
1.1
25,485
0.7
29,637
–0.7
4,117
2.4
9,547
0.9
1,505
0.0
1,240
0.2
1,300
0.9
1,693
1.4
2,029
0.4
2,707
0.6
3,033
1.0
2,658
1.1
2,428
1.0
2,628
0.7
2,991
1.2
3,517
0.8
4,361
1.1
6,009
1.0
8,012
1.1
11,194
0.9
16,018
0.8
25,608
0.5
29,727
0.3
4,186
1.7
9,592
0.5
1,526
1.4
1,261
1.7
1,320
1.5
1,715
1.3
2,053
1.2
2,735
1.0
3,063
1.0
2,686
1.0
2,452
1.0
2,651
0.9
3,015
0.8
3,541
0.7
4,385
0.6
6,021
0.2
8,018
0.1
11,187
–0.1
15,986
–0.2
25,509
–0.4
29,610
–0.4
4,239
1.3
9,803
2.2
1,558
2.1
1,286
2.0
1,346
2.0
1,750
2.0
2,095
2.1
2,793
2.1
3,127
2.1
2,740
2.0
2,500
1.9
2,702
1.9
3,072
1.9
3,608
1.9
4,466
1.8
6,117
1.6
8,148
1.6
11,381
1.7
16,282
1.9
26,023
2.0
30,216
2.0
4,349
2.6
10,046
2.5
1,595
2.4
1,316
2.4
1,377
2.3
1,792
2.4
2,145
2.4
2,860
2.4
3,202
2.4
2,805
2.4
2,557
2.3
2,763
2.3
3,141
2.3
3,689
2.2
4,565
2.2
6,242
2.0
8,317
2.1
11,625
2.1
16,645
2.2
26,632
2.3
30,931
2.4
4,479
3.0
10,298
2.5
1,634
2.4
1,348
2.4
1,410
2.4
1,835
2.4
2,198
2.4
2,930
2.5
3,281
2.5
2,873
2.4
2,618
2.4
2,828
2.4
3,215
2.4
3,775
2.3
4,672
2.3
6,380
2.2
8,501
2.2
11,889
2.3
17,034
2.3
27,277
2.4
31,686
2.4
4,617
3.1
10,560
2.5
1,674
2.5
1,381
2.4
1,443
2.4
1,880
2.5
2,252
2.5
3,004
2.5
3,364
2.5
2,944
2.5
2,682
2.4
2,897
2.4
3,293
2.4
3,867
2.4
4,784
2.4
6,527
2.3
8,699
2.3
12,171
2.4
17,446
2.4
27,955
2.5
32,477
2.5
4,762
3.1
10,830
2.6
1,715
2.4
1,414
2.4
1,478
2.4
1,926
2.4
2,308
2.5
3,079
2.5
3,448
2.5
3,017
2.5
2,748
2.5
2,968
2.4
3,374
2.4
3,961
2.4
4,901
2.4
6,681
2.4
8,905
2.4
12,465
2.4
17,875
2.5
28,659
2.5
33,299
2.5
4,914
3.2
11,106
2.5
1,757
2.4
1,447
2.4
1,513
2.4
1,973
2.4
2,365
2.5
3,156
2.5
3,535
2.5
3,092
2.5
2,815
2.5
3,040
2.4
3,456
2.5
4,058
2.5
5,021
2.5
6,840
2.4
9,119
2.4
12,768
2.4
18,317
2.5
29,382
2.5
34,141
2.5
5,069
3.2
11,387
2.5
1,800
2.4
1,482
2.4
1,549
2.4
2,021
2.4
2,423
2.5
3,235
2.5
3,624
2.5
3,169
2.5
2,884
2.5
3,115
2.5
3,541
2.5
4,158
2.5
5,144
2.5
7,004
2.4
9,338
2.4
13,079
2.4
18,769
2.5
30,121
2.5
35,002
2.5
5,231
3.2
11,677
2.5
1,844
2.4
1,518
2.4
1,586
2.4
2,070
2.5
2,483
2.5
3,317
2.5
3,715
2.5
3,248
2.5
2,955
2.5
3,192
2.5
3,629
2.5
4,261
2.5
5,272
2.5
7,173
2.4
9,566
2.4
13,401
2.5
19,238
2.5
30,885
2.5
35,893
2.5
5,401
3.2
11,973
2.5
1,889
2.4
1,554
2.4
1,624
2.4
2,121
2.4
2,544
2.5
3,400
2.5
3,809
2.5
3,329
2.5
3,028
2.5
3,270
2.5
3,719
2.5
4,366
2.5
5,402
2.5
7,347
2.4
9,799
2.4
13,731
2.5
19,717
2.5
31,667
2.5
36,803
2.5
5,580
3.3
12,280
2.6
1,936
2.5
1,591
2.4
1,663
2.4
2,173
2.5
2,608
2.5
3,486
2.5
3,906
2.5
3,413
2.5
3,104
2.5
3,352
2.5
3,811
2.5
4,476
2.5
5,537
2.5
7,527
2.5
10,040
2.5
14,073
2.5
20,214
2.5
32,478
2.6
37,748
2.6
5,768
3.4
12,592
2.5
1,983
2.4
1,629
2.4
1,702
2.4
2,226
2.4
2,672
2.5
3,573
2.5
4,004
2.5
3,499
2.5
3,181
2.5
3,434
2.5
3,906
2.5
4,587
2.5
5,675
2.5
7,711
2.4
10,286
2.5
14,422
2.5
20,720
2.5
33,303
2.5
38,710
2.5
5,962
3.4
12,913
2.5
2,031
2.4
1,668
2.4
1,743
2.4
2,280
2.4
2,738
2.5
3,663
2.5
4,105
2.5
3,586
2.5
3,259
2.5
3,519
2.5
4,003
2.5
4,701
2.5
5,816
2.5
7,899
2.4
10,539
2.5
14,779
2.5
21,240
2.5
34,151
2.5
39,697
2.6
6,165
3.4
13,240
2.5
2,080
2.4
1,708
2.4
1,784
2.4
2,336
2.4
2,806
2.5
3,755
2.5
4,208
2.5
3,675
2.5
3,340
2.5
3,606
2.5
4,102
2.5
4,817
2.5
5,960
2.5
8,092
2.4
10,797
2.4
15,145
2.5
21,771
2.5
35,017
2.5
40,706
2.5
6,378
3.4
13,574
2.5
2,130
2.4
1,748
2.4
1,826
2.4
2,392
2.4
2,875
2.5
3,848
2.5
4,314
2.5
3,767
2.5
3,422
2.5
3,695
2.5
4,203
2.5
4,936
2.5
6,107
2.5
8,288
2.4
11,060
2.4
15,518
2.5
22,314
2.5
35,902
2.5
41,737
2.5
6,603
3.5
13,917
2.5
2,182
2.4
1,790
2.4
1,869
2.4
2,450
2.4
2,945
2.5
3,944
2.5
4,422
2.5
3,860
2.5
3,506
2.5
3,785
2.5
4,306
2.5
5,058
2.5
6,258
2.5
8,490
2.4
11,331
2.4
15,902
2.5
22,870
2.5
36,810
2.5
42,795
2.5
6,840
3.6
14,270
2.5
2,234
2.4
1,832
2.4
1,914
2.4
2,509
2.4
3,018
2.5
4,043
2.5
4,533
2.5
3,956
2.5
3,592
2.5
3,879
2.5
4,413
2.5
5,183
2.5
6,413
2.5
8,697
2.4
11,609
2.5
16,296
2.5
23,444
2.5
37,747
2.5
43,886
2.5
7,087
3.6
14,631
2.5
2,288
2.4
1,875
2.4
1,959
2.4
2,570
2.4
3,092
2.5
4,144
2.5
4,647
2.5
4,055
2.5
3,681
2.5
3,974
2.5
4,522
2.5
5,311
2.5
6,572
2.5
8,909
2.4
11,894
2.5
16,700
2.5
24,030
2.5
38,704
2.5
45,001
2.5
7,342
3.6
2.5
12,187
2.5
17,115
2.5
24,635
2.5
39,691
2.5
4,634
2.5
5,443
2.5
6,735
2.5
9,128
2.5
46,151
2.6
7,609
3.6
2,633
2.4
3,168
2.5
4,248
2.5
4,764
2.5
15,004
2.5
2,344
2.4
1,920
2.4
2,005
2.4
4,156
2.5
3,772
2.5
4,072
2.4
12,486
2.5
17,540
2.5
25,252
2.5
40,699
2.5
4,748
2.5
5,578
2.5
6,902
2.5
9,351
2.5
47,325
2.5
7,893
3.7
2,697
2.4
3,246
2.5
4,354
2.5
4,883
2.5
15,384
2.5
2,400
2.4
1,965
2.4
2,052
2.4
4,259
2.5
3,865
2.5
4,173
2.4
12,793
2.5
17,975
2.5
25,886
2.5
41,734
2.5
4,866
2.5
5,716
2.5
7,074
2.5
9,580
2.5
48,531
2.5
8,186
3.7
2,762
2.4
3,326
2.5
4,463
2.5
5,006
2.5
15,774
2.5
2,458
2.4
2,012
2.4
2,101
2.4
4,366
2.5
3,960
2.5
4,276
2.5
13,108
2.5
18,422
2.5
26,536
2.5
42,796
2.5
4,986
2.5
5,858
2.5
7,250
2.5
9,814
2.5
49,768
2.5
8,488
3.7
2,829
2.4
3,408
2.5
4,575
2.5
5,132
2.5
16,174
2.5
2,518
2.4
2,060
2.4
2,151
2.4
4,474
2.5
4,058
2.5
4,381
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
66

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 18
Education Spending— Low Health Scenario
Total education spending
(2012 $ millions)
Elementary and secondary
2003–04 2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28 2028–29 2029–30 2030–31 2031–32 2032–33 2033–34 2034–35
54,334 56,329
3.7
62,022
10.1
63,620
2.6
68,772
8.1
71,843
4.5
75,142
4.6
77,559
3.2
79,529
2.5
79,305
–0.3
81,833 84,006 86,323 88,627
3.2
2.7
2.8
2.7
91,133 94,025
2.8
3.2
97,101 100,348 103,687 107,372 111,214 115,237 119,341 123,690 128,189 132,723 137,157 141,502 146,051 150,674 155,316 159,873
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.9
39,212 40,180
2.5
44,710
11.3
44,639
–0.2
47,356
6.1
49,787
5.1
50,730
1.9
53,297
5.1
55,060
3.3
54,244
–1.5
55,832
2.9
57,507 59,468
3.0
3.4
61,589 63,892
3.6
3.7
66,417 69,089
4.0
4.0
71,864
4.0
74,678
3.9
77,619 80,589 83,544
3.9
3.8
3.7
86,431
3.5
89,341 92,321 95,380 98,458 101,456 104,448 107,429 110,403 113,368
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.7
Postsecondary
15,122
73,636
16,148
6.8
17,312
7.2
74,369 80,895
1.0
8.8
18,981
9.6
80,468
–0.5
21,416
12.8
83,893
4.3
22,056
3.0
84,193
0.4
24,412
10.7
82,273
–2.3
24,262
–0.6
82,212
–0.1
24,469
0.9
81,645
–0.7
25,061
2.4
26,001 26,499 26,854
3.8
1.9
1.3
27,038
0.7
27,241 27,609
0.8
1.3
28,011 28,484 29,009
1.5
1.7
1.8
29,753 30,624
2.6
2.9
31,693 32,910 34,348 35,869
3.5
3.8
4.4
4.4
37,343 38,699 40,046
4.1
3.6
3.5
41,603 43,245
3.9
3.9
44,913 46,505
3.9
3.5
79,305 81,606 81,897 82,110 82,249 82,512 83,052 83,677 84,371 85,053 85,932 86,832 87,780 88,691 89,683 90,683 91,604 92,356 92,959 93,606 94,213 94,746 95,145
–2.9
2.9
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.4
Total education spending
(2012 $)
Elementary and secondary
Postsecondary
Total education spending (per student, 2012 $)
Elementary and secondary
Postsecondary
53,141
20,494
11,872
10,644
16,937
53,049
–0.2
21,320
4.0
12,022
1.3
10,709
0.6
17,300
2.1
58,315
9.9
22,580
5.9
13,142
9.3
11,864
10.8
18,204
5.2
56,460
–3.2
24,008
6.3
13,160
0.1
11,621
–2.1
19,118
5.0
57,768
2.3
26,125
8.8
13,800
4.9
12,021
3.4
20,516
7.3
58,346
1.0
25,848
–1.1
13,887
0.6
12,258
2.0
19,836
–3.3
55,544
–4.8
26,729
3.4
13,444
–3.2
11,749
–4.2
19,198
–3.2
56,494
1.7
25,717
–3.8
13,397
–0.4
12,010
2.2
17,952
–6.5
56,525
0.1
25,120
–2.3
13,328
–0.5
12,044
0.3
17,536
–2.3
54,244
–4.0
55,677 56,063 56,566
2.6
0.7
0.9
57,157
1.0
57,848 58,665 59,538 60,422
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.5
61,257
1.4
62,120 62,922 63,639 64,233
1.4
1.3
1.1
0.9
64,778 65,309 65,830 66,297
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
66,651 66,942
0.5
0.4
67,173 67,348 67,468
0.3
0.3
0.2
25,061 25,929 25,834 25,544 25,093 24,664 24,387 24,139 23,949 23,796 23,812 23,911 24,142 24,458 24,905 25,374 25,773 26,058 26,308 26,664 27,040 27,398 27,676
–0.2
3.5
–0.4
–1.1
–1.8
–1.7
–1.1
–1.0
–0.8
–0.6
0.1
0.4
1.0
1.3
1.8
1.9
1.6
1.1
1.0
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.0
12,938 13,281 13,382 13,378 13,357 13,337 13,324 13,298 13,266 13,227 13,209 13,182 13,161 13,141 13,142 13,149 13,153 13,144 13,126 13,123 13,123 13,127 13,129
–2.9
2.7
0.8
0.0
–0.1
–0.2
–0.1
–0.2
–0.2
–0.3
–0.1
–0.2
–0.2
–0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
–0.1
–0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
11,549
–4.1
17,494
–0.2
11,808
2.2
18,143
3.7
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
67

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 19
What’s Possible Scenario —Provincial Government Expenditures
($ millions)
2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28 2028–29 2029–30 2030–31 2031–32 2032–33 2033–34 2034–35
Total expenditures 230,477 243,514 258,050 279,040 290,632 308,474 321,566 330,882 334,279 347,070 351,370 360,882 370,730 383,043 399,574 415,437 431,554 448,159 465,394 483,109 501,375 520,273 539,982 560,538 581,222 602,446 624,174 646,687 670,076 694,094 718,641
Total program expenditures
5.5
5.7
6.0
8.1
4.2
6.1
4.2
2.9
1.0
3.8
1.2
2.7
2.7
3.3
4.3
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
207,625 221,208 235,878 256,786 269,422 287,328 298,657 306,935 309,696 321,265 324,418 332,643 341,354 351,370 365,319 379,857 395,056 410,894 427,654 445,226 463,486 482,435 502,229 522,885 543,643 564,938 586,723 609,329 632,807 656,913 681,541
6.2
6.5
6.6
8.9
4.9
6.6
3.9
2.8
0.9
3.7
1.0
2.5
2.6
2.9
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.7
Health
Social services
Education
Other program expenditures
Interest payments
Net transfer to capital assets (Nunavut)
Other adjustments to balance
86,191
7.7
22,809
2.6
56,418
5.2
37,038
7.0
23,068
–0.9
–50
–9.8
–1,712
5.0
–383
90,522
5.0
23,801
4.4
59,649
5.7
41,292
11.5
22,553
–2.2
–17
–66.9
97,520 104,952 112,239 117,842 124,010 128,808 132,892 137,374 142,705 148,820 155,363 162,332 170,245 178,504 187,172 196,302 205,930 216,111 226,727 237,865 249,535 261,848 274,143 286,981 300,321 314,184 328,774 343,886 359,510
7.7
7.6
6.9
5.0
5.2
3.9
3.2
3.4
3.9
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.5
25,312
6.3
26,555
4.9
28,231
6.3
30,359
7.5
31,449
3.6
32,496
3.3
32,473
–0.1
32,844
1.1
33,808
2.9
34,879
3.2
35,996
3.2
37,150
3.2
38,343
3.2
39,559
3.2
40,805
3.2
42,083
3.1
43,391
3.1
44,738
3.1
46,112
3.1
47,518
3.1
48,951
3.0
50,409
3.0
51,901
3.0
53,427
2.9
54,983
2.9
56,574
2.9
58,192
2.9
59,844
2.8
61,531
2.8
63,620
6.7
49,427
19.7
68,772
8.1
56,507
14.3
71,843
4.5
57,109
1.1
75,142
4.6
63,985
12.0
77,559
3.2
65,639
2.6
79,529
2.5
66,102
0.7
79,305
–0.3
65,026
–1.6
81,834
3.2
69,213
6.4
84,005
2.7
63,899
–7.7
86,322
2.8
62,621
–2.0
88,626
2.7
61,369
–2.0
91,133
2.8
60,755
–1.0
94,025
3.2
62,706
3.2
97,100 100,348 103,686 107,372 111,213 115,236 119,341 123,689 128,189 132,722 137,156 141,501 146,051 150,673 155,316 159,872
3.3
64,694
3.2
3.3
66,732
3.2
3.3
68,823
3.1
3.6
70,961
3.1
3.6
73,164
3.1
3.6
75,411
3.1
3.6
77,711
3.1
3.6
80,054
3.0
3.6
82,439
3.0
3.5
84,878
3.0
3.3
87,374
2.9
3.2
89,918
2.9
3.2
92,521
2.9
3.2
95,167
2.9
3.1
97,868
2.8
2.9
100,628
2.8
22,219
–1.5
–47
184.6
22,308
0.4
–53
12.7
21,244
–4.8
–33
–37.1
21,190
–0.3
–45
34.1
22,934
8.2
–24
–46.5
23,951
4.4
–3
–85.8
24,697
3.1
–114
3258.8
25,779
4.4
27
–123.4
26,952
4.6
0
–100.0
28,240
4.8
0
0.0
29,375
4.0
0
0.0
31,672
7.8
0
0.0
34,256
8.2
0
0.0
35,581
3.9
0
0.0
36,498
2.6
0
0.0
37,265
2.1
0
0.0
37,741
1.3
0
0.0
37,884
0.4
0
0.0
37,889
0.0
0
0.0
37,837
–0.1
0
0.0
37,753
–0.2
0
0.0
37,653
–0.3
0
0.0
37,579
–0.2
0
0.0
37,508
–0.2
0
0.0
37,451
–0.2
0
0.0
37,358
–0.2
0
0.0
37,269
–0.2
0
0.0
37,181
–0.2
0
0.0
37,100
–0.2
0
0.0
Stabilization reserve
Surplus/deficit
–953
–44.3
–139
–475
–50.2
–1,405
–654
37.8
–1,842
–863
31.9
2,264
–1,585
83.6
748
–1,491
–5.9
–48
–703
–52.8
298
–899
27.9
42
396
–144.0
135
655
65.6
0
443
–32.3
0
50
–88.7
0
55
10.0
0
–54
–197.8
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
–54
0.0
0
Accumulated deficit
Non-financial assets
Net debt
6,515 13,533 16,489 11,134 –2,301 –26,021 –20,373 –17,574 –16,053 –16,108 –12,857 –7,325 –2,535 954 –303 –59 370 804 979 1,345 1,505 1,544 1,484 887 693 382 849 707 642 478 649
–234.2
107.7
21.8
–32.5
–120.7
1030.8
–21.7
–13.7
–8.7
0.3
–20.2
–43.0
–65.4
–137.6
–131.7
–80.6
–731.0
117.5
21.7
37.4
12.0
2.6
–3.9
–40.2
–21.9
–44.9
122.3
–16.8
–9.1
–25.6
35.7
137,918 129,640 226,034 217,409 225,762 254,551 272,650 291,264 305,844 320,831 336,187 341,929 342,210 338,466 335,643 332,481 328,792 324,569 320,070 315,099 309,860 304,472 299,033 294,077 289,198 284,510 279,234 273,975 268,655 263,370 257,782
5.1
32,802
–6.0
65,318
74.4
–3.8
3.8
12.8
7.1
6.8
5.0
4.9
4.8
1.7
0.1
–1.1
–0.8
–0.9
–1.1
–1.3
–1.4
–1.6
–1.7
–1.7
–1.8
–1.7
–1.7
–1.6
–1.9
–1.9
–1.9
–2.0
–2.1
92,988 103,106 116,351 142,466 163,463 182,254 202,839 220,555 232,956 241,637 247,714 251,968 254,945 257,983 261,083 264,247 267,474 270,768 274,128 277,557 281,055 284,623 288,263 291,976 295,764 299,628 303,570 307,592 311,694
124.2
99.1
42.4
10.9
12.8
22.4
14.7
11.5
11.3
8.7
5.6
3.7
2.5
1.7
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
302,351 308,595 318,907 320,354 342,093 397,188 436,627 473,949 508,805 541,386 569,143 583,566 589,924 590,434 590,588 590,464 589,876 588,816 587,544 585,867 583,989 582,029 580,088 578,699 577,460 576,486 574,998 573,604 572,226 570,962 569,476
–0.7
2.1
3.3
0.5
6.8
16.1
9.9
8.5
7.4
6.4
5.1
2.5
1.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
–0.1
–0.2
–0.2
–0.3
–0.3
–0.3
–0.3
–0.2
–0.2
–0.2
–0.3
–0.2
–0.2
–0.2
–0.3
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
68

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 20
Health Care Expenditures— What’s Possible Scenario
($ millions)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Health care expenditures (current dollars)
Administration
Capital
Drugs
Hospitals
Other institutions
Other professionals
Other health spending
Public health
10,530
8.1
732
2.2
4,290
1.3
4,893
2.1
1,306
2.5
4,158
5.7
6,993
9.7
34,714
7.2
Physicians
Total health care expenditures
16,748
6.2
84,364 90,368
6.5
7.1
Health care expenditures (2012 $)
17,918
7.0
1,393
6.6
4,852
16.7
7,593
8.6
36,519
5.2
10,958
4.1
651
–11.1
4,632
8.0
5,853
19.6
Administration
Capital
Drugs
Hospitals
Other institutions
Other professionals
Other health spending
Public health
Physicians
Total health care expenditures
1,460
4.8
4,947
2.0
8,155
7.4
39,074
7.0
11,483
4.8
690
6.0
5,053
9.1
6,374
8.9
1,522
4.3
5,406
9.3
8,650
6.1
41,717
6.8
12,077
5.2
776
12.5
5,554
9.9
6,939
8.9
1,452
–4.6
6,440
19.1
9,147
5.7
44,682
7.1
12,686
5.0
874
12.6
6,113
10.1
7,397
6.6
1,409
–2.9
6,840
6.2
9,845
7.6
47,608
6.6
13,543
6.8
966
10.5
6,307
3.2
7,401
0.0
1,431
1.6
7,593
11.0
10,043
2.0
50,918
7.0
14,261
5.3
1,024
5.9
6,478
2.7
7,568
2.3
1,414
–1.2
7,422
–2.2
10,280
2.4
53,035
4.2
14,570
2.2
1,094
6.9
6,583
1.6
7,955
5.1
1,489
5.3
7,178
–3.3
10,537
2.5
55,002
3.7
15,012
3.0
1,205
10.2
6,785
3.1
8,127
2.2
1,527
2.6
7,488
4.3
10,476
–0.6
56,446
2.6
15,342
2.2
1,264
4.8
7,013
3.4
8,317
2.3
1,569
2.7
7,721
3.1
10,448
–0.3
58,944
4.4
16,116
5.0
1,319
4.4
7,205
2.7
8,545
2.7
1,619
3.2
8,004
3.7
10,583
1.3
61,729
4.7
16,976
5.3
1,380
4.6
7,435
3.2
8,818
3.2
1,672
3.2
8,300
3.7
10,817
2.2
64,679
4.8
17,895
5.4
1,444
4.6
7,675
3.2
9,102
3.2
1,726
3.2
8,610
3.7
11,125
2.8
67,814
4.8
18,863
5.4
1,511
4.7
7,923
3.2
9,396
3.2
1,786
3.5
8,957
4.0
11,618
4.4
71,292
5.1
19,883
5.4
1,583
4.7
8,240
4.0
9,772
4.0
1,848
3.5
9,316
4.0
12,165
4.7
74,919
5.1
20,935
5.3
1,657
4.7
8,568
4.0
10,161
4.0
1,911
3.4
9,699
4.1
12,761
4.9
78,711
5.1
22,055
5.4
1,735
4.7
8,907
3.9
10,563
3.9
1,976
3.4
10,095
4.1
13,395
5.0
82,701
5.1
23,273
5.5
1,818
4.8
9,257
3.9
10,979
3.9
2,043
3.4
10,499
4.0
14,075
5.1
86,918
5.1
24,599
5.7
1,905
4.8
9,619
3.9
11,407
3.9
2,113
3.4
10,917
4.0
14,794
5.1
91,372
5.1
26,044
5.9
1,997
4.8
9,994
3.9
11,853
3.9
2,184
3.4
11,347
3.9
15,550
5.1
96,007 100,864 105,926 111,251 116,634 122,261 128,117 134,192 140,521 147,102 153,923
5.1
27,587
5.9
2,092
4.8
10,381
3.9
12,311
3.9
2,256
3.3
11,788
3.9
16,346
5.1
5.1
29,243
6.0
2,192
4.8
10,781
3.9
12,786
3.9
2,331
3.3
12,242
3.9
17,177
5.1
5.0
31,072
6.3
2,297
4.8
11,193
3.8
13,274
3.8
2,407
3.3
12,706
3.8
18,044
5.0
5.0
33,119
6.6
2,408
4.8
11,616
3.8
13,775
3.8
2,481
3.1
13,136
3.4
18,802
4.2
4.8
35,335
6.7
2,524
4.8
11,989
3.2
14,218
3.2
2,556
3.0
13,576
3.3
19,577
4.1
4.8
37,692
6.7
2,645
4.8
12,372
3.2
14,673
3.2
2,633
3.0
14,028
3.3
20,366
4.0
4.8
40,181
6.6
2,771
4.7
12,764
3.2
15,137
3.2
2,712
3.0
14,490
3.3
21,147
3.8
4.7
42,853
6.7
2,902
4.7
13,166
3.2
15,614
3.2
2,792
3.0
14,965
3.3
21,927
3.7
4.7
45,889
7.1
3,041
4.8
13,576
3.1
16,101
3.1
2,874
2.9
15,450
3.2
22,720
3.6
4.7
49,040
6.9
3,185
4.7
13,996
3.1
16,598
3.1
2,958
2.9
15,950
3.2
23,528
3.6
4.6
52,301
6.7
3,333
4.7
14,426
3.1
17,108
3.1
19,319
7.8
20,873
8.0
22,894
9.7
24,784
8.3
26,636
7.5
28,342
6.4
29,338
3.5
30,399
3.6
31,770
4.5
33,248
4.7
34,797
4.7
36,427
4.7
38,227
4.9
40,102
4.9
42,053
4.9
44,091
4.8
46,212
4.8
48,440
4.8
50,751
4.8
53,162
4.8
55,654
4.7
58,234
4.6
60,816
4.4
63,504 66,287
4.4
4.4
69,161
4.3
72,111
4.3
75,168 78,334
4.2
4.2
96,555 103,515 111,684 118,703 125,951 130,695 134,674 138,272 143,638 149,793 156,379 163,393 171,358 179,671 188,395 197,585 207,276 217,524 228,209 239,420 251,166 263,560 275,935 288,857 302,285 316,237 330,923 346,133 361,860
6.8
7.2
7.9
6.3
6.1
3.8
3.0
2.7
3.9
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.5
13,007
2.7
925
–4.2
4,987
–0.5
5,688
0.3
1,519
0.7
5,122
3.4
6,650
10.4
42,198
2.5
1,584
4.3
5,856
14.3
7,132
7.2
43,510
3.1
13,267
2.0
807
–12.8
5,268
5.6
6,657
17.0
1,628
2.7
5,738
–2.0
7,641
7.1
45,686
5.0
13,637
2.8
839
4.0
5,635
7.0
7,108
6.8
1,662
2.1
6,056
5.5
8,086
5.8
47,162
3.2
13,822
1.4
904
7.8
6,064
7.6
7,576
6.6
1,548
–6.8
6,812
12.5
8,583
6.2
48,753
3.4
13,964
1.0
973
7.7
6,519
7.5
7,889
4.1
1,498
–3.2
7,203
5.7
9,025
5.1
49,452
1.4
14,076
0.8
997
2.4
6,706
2.9
7,869
–0.2
1,495
–0.2
7,985
10.9
9,408
4.2
52,183
5.5
14,615
3.8
1,043
4.6
6,768
0.9
7,906
0.5
1,436
–4.0
7,586
–5.0
9,984
6.1
53,740
3.0
14,779
1.1
1,110
6.4
6,683
–1.3
8,076
2.1
1,489
3.7
7,178
–5.4
10,537
5.5
55,002
2.3
15,012
1.6
1,205
8.6
6,785
1.5
8,127
0.6
1,513
1.6
7,331
2.1
10,896
3.4
55,829
1.5
15,148
0.9
1,246
3.4
6,948
2.4
8,240
1.4
1,530
1.1
7,412
1.1
11,160
2.4
57,054
2.2
15,536
2.6
1,266
1.7
7,026
1.1
8,332
1.1
1,547
1.1
7,497
1.1
11,431
2.4
58,316
2.2
15,946
2.6
1,288
1.7
7,105
1.1
8,426
1.1
1,565
1.1
7,583
1.1
11,711
2.5
59,614
2.2
16,377
2.7
1,310
1.7
7,187
1.1
8,523
1.1
1,583
1.1
7,670
1.1
12,006
2.5
60,962
2.3
16,815
2.7
1,333
1.8
7,270
1.1
8,621
1.1
1,605
1.4
7,797
1.7
12,453
3.7
62,495
2.5
17,263
2.7
1,357
1.8
7,408
1.9
8,785
1.9
1,628
1.4
7,924
1.6
12,918
3.7
64,049
2.5
17,706
2.6
1,382
1.8
7,548
1.9
8,952
1.9
1,650
1.4
8,053
1.6
13,403
3.8
65,635
2.5
18,176
2.7
1,407
1.8
7,690
1.9
9,120
1.9
1,672
1.4
8,183
1.6
13,901
3.7
67,254
2.5
18,685
2.8
1,434
1.9
7,833
1.9
9,290
1.9
1,695
1.3
8,312
1.6
14,423
3.8
68,938
2.5
19,242
3.0
1,461
1.9
7,977
1.8
9,460
1.8
1,717
1.3
8,443
1.6
14,962
3.7
70,663
2.5
19,844
3.1
1,489
1.9
8,122
1.8
9,632
1.8
1,739
1.3
8,574
1.6
15,517
3.7
72,410
2.5
20,478
3.2
1,517
1.9
8,269
1.8
9,806
1.8
1,761
1.3
8,705
1.5
16,092
3.7
74,189
2.5
21,149
3.3
1,546
1.9
8,416
1.8
9,981
1.8
1,784
1.3
8,836
1.5
16,679
3.7
75,989
2.4
21,896
3.5
1,575
1.9
8,564
1.8
10,157
1.8
1,806
1.2
8,967
1.5
17,280
3.6
77,846
2.4
22,743
3.9
1,606
2.0
8,713
1.7
10,333
1.7
1,824
1.0
9,066
1.1
17,758
2.8
79,605
2.3
23,645
4.0
1,638
2.0
8,816
1.2
10,455
1.2
1,842
1.0
9,164
1.1
18,235
2.7
81,380
2.2
24,574
3.9
1,669
1.9
8,918
1.2
10,576
1.2
1,860
1.0
9,261
1.1
18,707
2.6
83,177
2.2
25,526
3.9
1,701
1.9
9,019
1.1
10,695
1.1
1,878
1.0
9,357
1.0
19,156
2.4
84,961
2.1
26,524
3.9
1,732
1.9
9,119
1.1
10,814
1.1
1,896
0.9
9,451
1.0
19,587
2.2
86,772
2.1
27,675
4.3
1,766
1.9
9,217
1.1
10,931
1.1
1,913
0.9
9,544
1.0
20,014
2.2
88,591
2.1
28,817
4.1
1,798
1.9
9,315
1.1
11,047
1.1
1,930
0.9
9,636
1.0
20,438
2.1
90,406
2.0
21,157
–0.4
22,198
4.9
23,479
5.8
24,303
3.5
25,493
4.9
25,581
0.3
27,136
6.1
28,748
5.9
29,338
2.1
29,971
2.2
30,497
1.8
31,036
1.8
31,583
1.8
32,142
1.8
32,788
2.0
33,442
2.0
34,105
2.0
34,769
1.9
35,439
1.9
36,116
1.9
36,796
1.9
37,483
1.9
38,164
1.8
38,843
1.8
39,458
1.6
40,071
1.6
40,684
1.5
41,282
1.5
41,867
1.4
42,449
1.4
43,026
1.4
101,254 106,278 111,389 115,633 120,535 122,408 128,540 132,142 134,674 137,122 139,813 142,594 145,454 148,402 151,952 155,549 159,240 163,021 166,947 170,987 175,106 179,322 183,644 188,137 192,264 196,430 200,631 204,823 209,161 213,489 217,787
2.1
5.0
4.8
3.8
4.2
1.6
5.0
2.8
1.9
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0
29,946
3.9
1,831
1.8
9,412
1.0
11,162
1.0
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
69

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 21
Health Care Expenditures Per Capita— What’s Possible Scenario
2004 2005
Health care expenditures (per capita, 2012 $)
Administration 48 49
Capital
–0.3
160
3.3
182
Drugs
Hospitals
2.4
208
9.4
1,321
1.6
13.2
221
6.2
1,349
2.1
Other institutions
Other professionals
Other health spending
Public health
Physicians
Total health care expenditures
407
1.7
29
–5.1
156
–1.4
178
–0.7
662
–1.3
3,170
1.1
411
1.0
25
–13.6
163
4.6
206
15.9
688
3.9
3,296
4.0
Inflation by sector
Administration
Capital
Drugs
Hospitals
Other institutions
Other professionals
Other health spending
Public health
Physicians
Total health care expenditures
79
6.7
83
4.4
86
1.9
86
1.9
105
–0.6
82
4.6
81
5.3
79
6.7
86
1.9
81
2.2
81
2.0
85
2.1
88
2.2
88
2.2
83
2.0
81
2.0
106
1.2
84
2.0
88
2.2
83
2.1
2006
50
1.7
176
–3.0
235
6.1
1,403
3.9
419
1.8
26
2.9
173
5.9
218
5.7
721
4.7
3,420
3.8
82
1.9
87
1.9
90
2.0
90
2.0
84
1.9
82
1.9
107
0.2
86
1.9
90
2.0
86
4.1
2007
51
1.1
184
4.5
246
4.8
1,434
2.2
420
0.4
27
6.8
184
6.6
230
5.6
739
2.5
3,516
2.8
92
2.1
89
3.5
107
0.2
88
3.4
87
3.8
86
4.4
92
2.1
92
2.1
86
4.4
90
3.3
2008
47
–7.8
205
11.3
258
5.0
1,466
2.3
420
–0.1
29
6.5
196
6.4
237
3.0
767
3.8
3,626
3.1
94
2.4
95
5.9
107
–0.4
92
3.6
91
4.0
90
4.6
94
2.4
94
2.4
90
4.6
93
3.5
2009
45
–4.3
214
4.5
268
4.0
1,471
0.3
419
–0.3
30
1.3
199
1.7
234
–1.4
761
–0.8
3,640
0.4
94
0.3
95
0.5
109
2.4
96
5.0
96
5.9
97
7.9
94
0.3
94
0.3
97
7.9
97
4.7
2010
44
–1.3
235
9.6
277
3.1
1,535
4.4
430
2.7
31
3.4
199
–0.2
233
–0.6
798
4.9
3,780
3.8
96
1.8
95
0.1
107
–2.1
98
1.4
98
1.4
98
1.3
96
1.8
96
1.8
98
1.3
98
1.0
2011
42
–4.9
221
–5.9
291
5.1
1,565
2.0
430
0.1
32
5.4
195
–2.2
235
1.1
837
4.9
3,848
1.8
99
2.9
98
2.9
103
–3.5
99
1.1
99
1.0
99
0.4
99
2.9
99
2.9
99
0.4
99
0.9
2012
43
2.5
207
–6.5
303
4.3
1,583
1.1
432
0.4
35
7.3
195
0.3
234
–0.6
844
0.8
3,875
0.7
100
1.5
100
2.2
100
–2.9
100
1.3
100
1.4
100
1.4
100
1.5
100
1.5
100
1.4
100
1.1
2013
43
0.4
209
0.9
310
2.2
1,588
0.3
431
–0.3
35
2.2
198
1.2
234
0.2
852
1.0
3,900
0.6
101
0.9
102
2.2
96
–3.9
101
1.1
101
1.3
101
1.4
101
0.9
101
0.9
101
1.4
101
0.8
2014
43
0.0
209
0.0
314
1.3
1,605
1.1
437
1.4
36
0.5
198
0.0
234
0.0
858
0.6
3,933
0.8
103
1.6
104
2.0
94
–2.6
103
2.2
104
2.4
104
2.7
103
1.6
103
1.6
104
2.7
103
1.9
2015
107
2.8
105
2.3
105
2.0
105
2.0
106
2.6
107
2.8
93
–1.1
106
2.5
105
2.0
107
2.5
2016
110
2.8
108
2.3
107
2.0
107
2.0
92
–0.2
108
2.5
109
2.6
110
2.8
107
2.0
109
2.5
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
863
0.6
3,966
0.8
198
0.0
234
0.0
444
1.5
36
0.6
318
1.3
1,622
1.1
43
0.0
209
0.0
868
0.6
4,000
0.8
198
0.0
234
0.0
450
1.5
36
0.6
322
1.3
1,639
1.1
43
0.0
209
0.0
2017
874
0.6
4,034
0.9
198
0.0
234
0.0
457
1.5
36
0.6
326
1.4
1,657
1.1
43
0.0
209
0.0
113
2.9
110
2.4
109
2.1
109
2.1
112
2.7
113
2.9
93
0.3
111
2.5
109
2.1
112
2.6
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
889
0.9
4,134
1.2
201
0.8
238
0.8
471
1.4
37
0.7
343
2.6
1,702
1.3
43
0.3
211
0.5
120
2.9
116
2.4
114
2.0
114
2.0
118
2.7
120
2.9
94
0.9
117
2.5
114
2.0
118
2.3
881
0.9
4,084
1.2
199
0.7
236
0.7
464
1.5
36
0.6
335
2.5
1,680
1.4
43
0.3
210
0.5
117
2.9
113
2.4
111
2.1
111
2.1
115
2.7
117
2.9
93
0.7
114
2.5
111
2.1
115
2.3
904
0.8
4,237
1.3
204
0.7
241
0.7
486
1.7
37
0.8
361
2.6
1,748
1.3
43
0.3
213
0.5
896
0.9
4,185
1.2
202
0.7
240
0.8
478
1.5
37
0.7
352
2.6
1,725
1.3
43
0.3
212
0.5
123
2.8
118
2.4
116
2.0
116
2.0
121
2.6
123
2.8
95
1.1
120
2.5
116
2.0
120
2.4
127
2.8
121
2.4
118
2.0
118
2.0
125
2.6
127
2.8
96
1.2
123
2.5
118
2.0
123
2.4
919
0.8
4,351
1.3
207
0.8
245
0.8
505
2.0
38
0.8
381
2.6
1,798
1.4
44
0.2
215
0.5
134
2.9
127
2.5
123
2.0
123
2.0
131
2.7
134
2.9
99
1.3
129
2.6
123
2.0
129
2.4
911
0.8
4,293
1.3
205
0.8
243
0.7
495
1.9
38
0.8
371
2.6
1,773
1.4
44
0.3
214
0.5
130
2.8
124
2.4
121
2.0
121
2.0
128
2.6
130
2.8
98
1.3
126
2.5
121
2.0
126
2.4
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
934
0.8
4,470
1.4
210
0.7
249
0.8
527
2.2
39
0.9
401
2.6
1,849
1.4
44
0.3
217
0.5
142
2.8
134
2.4
128
2.0
128
2.0
138
2.6
142
2.8
102
1.4
136
2.5
128
2.0
135
2.3
927
0.8
4,410
1.3
208
0.8
247
0.8
516
2.1
38
0.8
391
2.6
1,824
1.4
44
0.2
216
0.5
138
2.8
130
2.4
126
2.0
126
2.0
135
2.6
138
2.8
100
1.4
133
2.5
126
2.0
132
2.3
949
0.8
4,598
1.5
213
0.7
253
0.8
556
2.9
39
1.0
422
2.6
1,903
1.5
44
0.2
219
0.5
942
0.8
4,532
1.4
211
0.7
251
0.7
540
2.5
39
0.9
412
2.6
1,875
1.4
44
0.2
218
0.5
146
2.8
137
2.4
131
2.0
131
2.0
142
2.6
146
2.8
103
1.4
139
2.5
131
2.0
139
2.3
150
2.8
140
2.4
133
2.0
133
2.0
146
2.6
150
2.8
104
1.4
143
2.5
133
2.0
142
2.3
961
0.6
4,712
1.2
214
0.2
254
0.2
589
3.0
40
1.0
437
1.7
1,952
1.3
44
0.1
220
0.1
158
2.8
147
2.5
139
2.0
139
2.0
153
2.6
158
2.8
107
1.4
150
2.5
139
2.0
148
2.2
955
0.6
4,655
1.2
213
0.2
253
0.2
572
3.0
40
1.0
430
1.8
1,927
1.3
44
0.1
219
0.2
154
2.8
144
2.4
136
2.0
136
2.0
149
2.6
154
2.8
106
1.4
147
2.5
136
2.0
145
2.3
973
0.6
4,826
1.2
215
0.2
255
0.2
625
3.0
41
1.0
451
1.5
2,002
1.3
44
0.1
220
0.2
967
0.6
4,769
1.2
214
0.2
254
0.2
607
2.9
40
1.0
445
1.7
1,977
1.3
44
0.1
220
0.1
163
2.8
151
2.5
142
2.0
142
2.0
157
2.6
163
2.8
109
1.4
154
2.5
142
2.0
151
2.3
168
2.8
154
2.5
144
2.0
144
2.0
162
2.6
168
2.8
110
1.4
158
2.5
144
2.0
155
2.2
989
0.5
5,006
1.2
216
0.2
257
0.2
688
3.1
42
1.0
470
1.3
2,078
1.2
44
0.1
221
0.1
182
2.8
166
2.5
153
2.0
153
2.0
175
2.6
182
2.8
115
1.4
170
2.5
153
2.0
166
2.2
978
0.6
4,887
1.3
215
0.2
255
0.2
647
3.5
41
1.1
458
1.4
2,027
1.3
44
0.1
221
0.1
172
2.8
158
2.5
147
2.0
147
2.0
166
2.6
172
2.8
112
1.4
162
2.5
147
2.0
158
2.2
984
0.6
4,947
1.2
216
0.2
256
0.2
668
3.3
42
1.0
464
1.3
2,053
1.3
44
0.1
221
0.1
177
2.8
162
2.5
150
2.0
150
2.0
170
2.6
177
2.8
114
1.4
166
2.5
150
2.0
162
2.2
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
70

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 22
Health Care Expenditures by Age Category, Males— What’s Possible Scenario
($ per capita)
Age 0–1
Age 1–4
Age 5–9
Age 10–14
Age 15–19
Age 20–24
Age 25–29
Age 30–34
Age 35–39
Age 40–44
Age 45–49
Age 50–54
Age 55–59
Age 60–64
Age 65–69
Age 70–74
Age 75–79
Age 80–84
Age 85–89
Age 90+
All ages
2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28 2028–29 2029–30 2030–31 2031–32 203233 2033–34 2034–35
3.5
7,522
3.7
10,101
3.3
12,848
2.7
19,650
5.8
2,228
6.8
2,831
7.1
3,665
6.3
5,523
0.2
24,014
6.3
2,516
6.6
1,061
9.6
1,125
10.2
1,136
7.8
1,207
6.9
7,876
3.6
1,223
9.6
984
9.9
934
11.8
1,360
7.9
1,505
5.9
1,790
4.1
7,924
5.3
10,548
4.4
13,599
5.8
19,831
4.6
2,343
5.1
2,981
5.3
3,866
5.5
5,747
0.9
25,710
7.1
2,666
6.0
1,115
5.1
1,157
2.8
1,177
3.6
1,258
4.2
8,230
4.5
1,281
4.8
1,032
4.8
986
5.6
1,408
3.6
1,574
4.6
1,873
5.7
8,248
4.1
10,944
3.8
14,253
4.8
19,978
7.5
2,490
6.3
3,181
6.7
4,127
6.7
6,078
0.7
25,632
–0.3
2,851
7.0
1,224
9.7
1,243
7.4
1,281
8.8
1,346
7.0
8,735
6.1
1,386
8.2
1,103
6.9
1,076
9.2
1,502
6.7
1,675
6.4
2,013
4.2
7,252
4.8
9,775
5.7
12,504
6.4
19,609
5.4
2,087
5.0
2,643
5.0
3,449
4.4
5,335
7.9
22,592
12.1
2,360
6.0
968
3.0
1,022
4.7
1,054
4.7
1,129
2.9
1,261
3.1
1,422
3.9
1,693
7,606
4.5
1,116
3.1
896
3.6
835
2.5
9,346
7.0
1,492
7.6
1,207
9.4
1,173
9.0
1,314
7.3
1,324
6.5
1,373
7.2
1,448
7.6
1,607
7.0
1,819
8.6
2,136
6.1
2,642
6.1
3,365
5.8
4,330
4.9
6,392
5.2
8,643
4.8
11,456
4.7
15,056
5.6
21,106
5.6
26,771
4.4
3,058
7.3
9,851
5.4
1,509
1.2
1,255
4.0
1,208
3.0
1,363
3.7
1,366
3.2
1,415
3.1
1,507
4.1
1,677
4.4
1,914
5.2
2,228
4.3
2,761
4.5
3,480
3.4
4,520
4.4
6,606
3.4
8,910
3.1
11,990
4.7
15,755
4.6
22,164
5.0
27,655
3.3
3,215
5.1
10,485
6.4
1,584
5.0
1,313
4.7
1,271
5.2
1,412
3.6
1,441
5.5
1,492
5.5
1,582
5.0
1,744
4.0
2,003
4.7
2,335
4.8
2,866
3.8
3,627
4.2
4,740
4.9
6,835
3.5
9,150
2.7
12,338
2.9
16,342
3.7
23,209
4.7
28,364
2.6
3,383
5.2
10,661
1.7
1,605
1.3
1,350
2.8
1,321
3.9
1,445
2.3
1,483
2.9
1,560
4.5
1,635
3.4
1,786
2.4
2,054
2.5
2,395
2.6
2,920
1.9
3,716
2.5
4,823
1.8
6,963
1.9
9,259
1.2
12,524
1.5
16,589
1.5
23,609
1.7
27,581
–2.8
3,489
3.1
10,762
0.9
1,614
0.6
1,339
–0.8
1,333
0.9
1,469
1.7
1,466
–1.1
1,547
–0.8
1,643
0.5
1,795
0.5
2,067
0.7
2,414
0.8
2,960
1.4
3,762
1.2
4,886
1.3
7,037
1.1
9,357
1.1
12,651
1.0
16,742
0.9
23,753
0.6
27,684
0.4
3,559
2.0
10,811
0.5
1,636
1.4
1,361
1.6
1,352
1.4
1,488
1.3
1,484
1.2
1,565
1.1
1,661
1.1
1,813
1.0
2,087
0.9
2,434
0.8
2,981
0.7
3,786
0.6
4,912
0.5
7,052
0.2
9,368
0.1
12,657
0.0
16,735
0.0
23,709
–0.2
27,632
–0.2
3,622
1.8
11,050
2.2
1,670
2.1
1,388
2.0
1,378
1.9
1,517
2.0
1,512
1.9
1,594
1.8
1,691
1.8
1,847
1.8
2,124
1.8
2,478
1.8
3,037
1.9
3,858
1.9
5,008
1.9
7,170
1.7
9,527
1.7
12,881
1.8
17,045
1.9
24,179
2.0
28,190
2.0
3,726
2.9
11,324
2.5
1,711
2.4
1,421
2.4
1,410
2.3
1,552
2.3
1,547
2.3
1,630
2.2
1,729
2.2
1,888
2.2
2,171
2.2
2,532
2.2
3,105
2.2
3,946
2.3
5,123
2.3
7,321
2.1
9,728
2.1
13,161
2.2
17,424
2.2
24,739
2.3
28,850
2.3
3,848
3.3
11,608
2.5
1,753
2.4
1,455
2.4
1,443
2.4
1,589
2.4
1,583
2.3
1,667
2.3
1,769
2.3
1,931
2.3
2,221
2.3
2,591
2.3
3,177
2.3
4,039
2.4
5,245
2.4
7,486
2.2
9,947
2.3
13,463
2.3
17,831
2.3
25,333
2.4
29,549
2.4
3,978
3.4
11,904
2.5
1,796
2.5
1,490
2.4
1,478
2.4
1,627
2.4
1,621
2.4
1,707
2.4
1,810
2.4
1,977
2.4
2,274
2.4
2,652
2.4
3,254
2.4
4,137
2.4
5,373
2.4
7,661
2.3
10,181
2.3
13,784
2.4
18,261
2.4
25,958
2.5
30,282
2.5
4,116
3.5
12,242
2.8
1,848
2.9
1,533
2.9
1,520
2.9
1,674
2.8
1,667
2.8
1,755
2.8
1,862
2.8
2,033
2.8
2,338
2.8
2,727
2.8
3,346
2.8
4,254
2.8
5,525
2.8
7,873
2.8
10,462
2.8
14,164
2.8
18,764
2.8
26,671
2.7
31,114
2.7
4,276
3.9
12,589
2.8
1,901
2.9
1,577
2.9
1,563
2.8
1,721
2.8
1,714
2.8
1,805
2.8
1,914
2.8
2,091
2.8
2,405
2.8
2,804
2.8
3,440
2.8
4,374
2.8
5,681
2.8
8,092
2.8
10,752
2.8
14,557
2.8
19,282
2.8
27,404
2.7
31,968
2.7
4,441
3.9
12,943
2.8
1,956
2.9
1,622
2.9
1,608
2.9
1,770
2.8
1,763
2.8
1,856
2.8
1,969
2.8
2,150
2.8
2,473
2.8
2,883
2.8
3,538
2.8
4,498
2.8
5,842
2.8
8,318
2.8
11,051
2.8
14,961
2.8
19,815
2.8
28,155
2.7
32,844
2.7
4,614
3.9
13,310
2.8
2,012
2.9
1,669
2.9
1,654
2.9
1,821
2.9
1,813
2.9
1,909
2.9
2,025
2.9
2,211
2.9
2,544
2.9
2,966
2.9
3,639
2.9
4,626
2.8
6,008
2.8
8,552
2.8
11,361
2.8
15,379
2.8
20,366
2.8
28,932
2.8
33,750
2.8
4,794
3.9
13,686
2.8
2,070
2.9
1,716
2.9
1,701
2.8
1,873
2.8
1,865
2.8
1,963
2.8
2,083
2.8
2,274
2.8
2,616
2.8
3,050
2.8
3,742
2.8
4,758
2.8
6,178
2.8
8,792
2.8
11,680
2.8
15,809
2.8
20,933
2.8
29,730
2.8
34,680
2.8
4,984
4.0
14,076
2.9
2,130
2.9
1,766
2.9
1,750
2.9
1,926
2.9
1,918
2.9
2,019
2.9
2,142
2.9
2,340
2.9
2,691
2.9
3,137
2.9
3,849
2.9
4,895
2.9
6,356
2.9
9,042
2.8
12,011
2.8
16,256
2.8
21,521
2.8
30,558
2.8
35,645
2.8
5,183
4.0
14,474
2.8
2,191
2.9
1,816
2.9
1,799
2.8
1,981
2.8
1,972
2.8
2,077
2.8
2,203
2.8
2,406
2.9
2,768
2.9
3,227
2.8
3,959
2.8
5,034
2.8
6,537
2.8
9,297
2.8
12,349
2.8
16,712
2.8
22,121
2.8
31,403
2.8
36,629
2.8
5,389
4.0
14,883
2.8
2,254
2.9
1,868
2.9
1,851
2.8
2,037
2.8
2,028
2.8
2,136
2.8
2,266
2.8
2,475
2.8
2,847
2.9
3,319
2.8
4,072
2.9
5,177
2.9
6,723
2.8
9,560
2.8
12,697
2.8
17,181
2.8
22,740
2.8
32,272
2.8
37,642
2.8
5,603
4.0
15,303
2.8
2,319
2.9
1,921
2.8
1,903
2.8
2,095
2.8
2,086
2.8
2,196
2.8
2,330
2.8
2,545
2.8
2,928
2.8
3,413
2.8
4,188
2.8
5,325
2.8
6,914
2.8
9,830
2.8
13,054
2.8
17,662
2.8
23,373
2.8
33,163
2.8
38,680
2.8
5,825
4.0
15,733
2.8
2,385
2.8
1,976
2.8
1,957
2.8
2,154
2.8
2,144
2.8
2,258
2.8
2,396
2.8
2,617
2.8
3,011
2.8
3,509
2.8
4,306
2.8
5,475
2.8
7,109
2.8
10,106
2.8
13,419
2.8
18,155
2.8
24,022
2.8
34,074
2.7
39,742
2.7
6,058
4.0
16,144
2.6
2,445
2.5
2,025
2.5
2,005
2.5
2,208
2.5
2,198
2.5
2,314
2.5
2,456
2.5
2,683
2.5
3,086
2.5
3,598
2.5
4,416
2.6
5,616
2.6
7,293
2.6
10,364
2.5
13,762
2.6
18,621
2.6
24,640
2.6
34,955
2.6
40,770
2.6
6,286
3.8
16,568
2.6
2,508
2.6
2,077
2.5
2,055
2.5
2,263
2.5
2,253
2.5
2,372
2.5
2,518
2.5
2,750
2.5
3,165
2.5
3,690
2.5
4,529
2.6
5,761
2.6
7,482
2.6
10,629
2.6
14,115
2.6
19,101
2.6
25,277
2.6
35,863
2.6
41,831
2.6
6,522
3.8
17,002
2.6
2,572
2.5
2,129
2.5
2,107
2.5
2,320
2.5
2,309
2.5
2,431
2.5
2,581
2.5
2,819
2.5
3,245
2.5
3,783
2.5
4,645
2.6
5,909
2.6
7,676
2.6
10,901
2.6
14,476
2.6
19,592
2.6
25,928
2.6
36,791
2.6
42,915
2.6
6,765
3.7
2.6
14,848
2.6
20,098
2.6
26,600
2.6
37,749
2.5
4,765
2.6
6,062
2.6
7,876
2.6
11,180
2.6
44,033
2.6
7,015
3.7
2,378
2.5
2,367
2.5
2,492
2.5
2,645
2.5
17,449
2.6
2,638
2.6
2,182
2.5
2,159
2.5
2,891
2.5
3,327
2.5
3,880
2.6
15,229
2.6
20,615
2.6
27,286
2.6
38,728
2.5
4,887
2.6
6,219
2.6
8,080
2.6
11,466
2.6
45,177
2.6
7,275
3.7
2,438
2.5
2,426
2.5
2,554
2.5
2,712
2.5
17,906
2.6
2,705
2.6
2,237
2.5
2,213
2.5
2,963
2.5
3,411
2.5
3,978
2.6
15,620
2.6
21,146
2.6
27,991
2.6
39,733
2.5
5,012
2.6
6,379
2.6
8,289
2.6
11,760
2.6
46,351
2.6
7,542
3.7
2,499
2.5
2,486
2.5
2,618
2.5
2,780
2.5
18,376
2.6
2,774
2.6
2,294
2.5
2,268
2.5
3,038
2.5
3,497
2.5
4,080
2.6
16,021
2.6
21,691
2.6
28,715
2.6
40,765
2.5
5,140
2.6
6,544
2.6
8,504
2.6
12,062
2.6
47,556
2.6
7,816
3.6
2,561
2.5
2,548
2.5
2,684
2.5
2,849
2.5
18,858
2.6
2,845
2.6
2,351
2.5
2,325
2.5
3,115
2.5
3,586
2.5
4,183
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
71

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 23
Health Care Expenditures, Female— What’s Possible Scenario
($ per capita)
Age 0–1
Age 1–4
Age 5–9
Age 10–14
Age 15–19
Age 20–24
Age 25–29
Age 30–34
Age 35–39
Age 40–44
Age 45–49
Age 50–54
Age 55–59
Age 60–64
Age 65–69
Age 70–74
Age 75–79
Age 80–84
Age 85–89
Age 90+
All ages
2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28 2028–29 2029–30 2030–31 2031–32 203233 2033–34 2034–35
3.8
6,494
3.8
8,880
3.1
12,648
3.3
21,781
6.5
2,243
6.3
2,653
7.6
3,298
7.9
4,797
–0.5
24,239
3.7
3,085
5.7
1,269
7.2
1,652
6.0
2,171
5.3
2,332
5.5
1,969
7.7
1,782
6.7
1,990
7,120
4.3
1,116
7.2
926
8.7
902
10.4
3.7
6,834
5.2
9,336
5.1
13,143
3.9
22,611
3.6
2,349
4.7
2,775
4.6
3,453
4.7
4,975
3.8
25,161
3.8
3,258
5.6
1,327
4.6
1,730
4.8
2,263
4.3
2,456
5.3
2,075
5.4
1,864
4.6
2,060
7,493
5.2
1,183
6.0
969
4.6
952
5.6
4.7
7,084
3.7
9,744
4.4
13,747
4.6
23,067
6.0
2,480
5.6
2,945
6.2
3,651
5.7
5,210
2.0
26,282
4.5
3,438
5.5
1,426
7.4
1,784
3.1
2,323
2.7
2,520
2.6
7,915
5.6
1,259
6.4
1,041
7.4
1,039
9.1
2,171
4.6
1,976
6.0
2,183
4.6
6,257
4.1
8,614
4.6
12,248
5.2
21,900
4.7
2,111
4.2
2,465
3.7
3,057
4.4
4,621
4.5
23,368
10.0
2,918
5.2
1,184
2.3
1,558
1.9
2,061
2.5
2,211
4.5
6,826
3.9
1,041
2.7
852
4.5
817
2.5
1,828
4.1
1,671
3.0
1,867
8,323
5.2
1,360
8.0
1,121
7.7
1,130
8.8
1,515
6.2
1,894
6.2
2,451
5.5
2,658
5.5
2,318
6.8
2,120
7.3
2,335
6.9
2,644
6.6
3,114
5.7
3,846
5.3
5,469
5.0
7,405
4.5
10,159
4.3
14,380
4.6
23,858
3.4
27,639
5.2
3,655
6.3
8,676
4.2
1,404
3.2
1,152
2.8
1,183
4.7
1,570
3.7
1,954
3.1
2,545
3.9
2,779
4.6
2,441
5.3
2,239
5.6
2,447
4.8
2,788
5.4
3,269
5.0
4,024
4.6
5,722
4.6
7,633
3.1
10,621
4.5
15,028
4.5
24,759
3.8
28,442
2.9
3,839
5.0
9,177
5.8
1,462
4.1
1,206
4.7
1,242
5.0
1,634
4.1
1,999
2.3
2,638
3.6
2,903
4.5
2,547
4.3
2,348
4.9
2,532
3.5
2,900
4.0
3,386
3.6
4,215
4.8
5,878
2.7
7,867
3.1
11,036
3.9
15,717
4.6
25,320
2.3
29,838
4.9
4,019
4.7
9,467
3.2
1,504
2.9
1,238
2.6
1,288
3.8
1,669
2.2
2,020
1.1
2,690
2.0
3,003
3.4
2,630
3.3
2,403
2.3
2,608
3.0
2,955
1.9
3,487
3.0
4,315
2.4
5,949
1.2
7,926
0.8
11,096
0.5
15,896
1.1
25,485
0.7
29,637
–0.7
4,117
2.4
9,547
0.9
1,505
0.0
1,240
0.2
1,300
0.9
1,693
1.4
2,029
0.4
2,707
0.6
3,033
1.0
2,658
1.1
2,428
1.0
2,628
0.7
2,991
1.2
3,517
0.8
4,361
1.1
6,009
1.0
8,012
1.1
11,194
0.9
16,018
0.8
25,608
0.5
29,727
0.3
4,186
1.7
9,592
0.5
1,526
1.4
1,261
1.7
1,320
1.5
1,715
1.3
2,053
1.2
2,735
1.0
3,063
1.0
2,686
1.0
2,452
1.0
2,651
0.9
3,015
0.8
3,541
0.7
4,385
0.6
6,021
0.2
8,018
0.1
11,187
–0.1
15,986
–0.2
25,509
–0.4
29,610
–0.4
4,239
1.3
9,803
2.2
1,558
2.1
1,286
2.0
1,346
2.0
1,750
2.0
2,095
2.1
2,793
2.1
3,127
2.1
2,740
2.0
2,500
1.9
2,702
1.9
3,072
1.9
3,608
1.9
4,466
1.8
6,117
1.6
8,148
1.6
11,381
1.7
16,282
1.9
26,023
2.0
30,216
2.0
4,349
2.6
10,046
2.5
1,595
2.4
1,316
2.4
1,377
2.3
1,792
2.4
2,145
2.4
2,860
2.4
3,202
2.4
2,805
2.4
2,557
2.3
2,763
2.3
3,141
2.3
3,689
2.2
4,565
2.2
6,242
2.0
8,317
2.1
11,625
2.1
16,645
2.2
26,632
2.3
30,931
2.4
4,479
3.0
10,298
2.5
1,634
2.4
1,348
2.4
1,410
2.4
1,835
2.4
2,198
2.4
2,930
2.5
3,281
2.5
2,873
2.4
2,618
2.4
2,828
2.4
3,215
2.4
3,775
2.3
4,672
2.3
6,380
2.2
8,501
2.2
11,889
2.3
17,034
2.3
27,277
2.4
31,686
2.4
4,617
3.1
10,560
2.5
1,674
2.5
1,381
2.4
1,443
2.4
1,880
2.5
2,252
2.5
3,004
2.5
3,364
2.5
2,944
2.5
2,682
2.4
2,897
2.4
3,293
2.4
3,867
2.4
4,784
2.4
6,527
2.3
8,699
2.3
12,171
2.4
17,446
2.4
27,955
2.5
32,477
2.5
4,762
3.1
10,860
2.8
1,723
2.9
1,420
2.9
1,485
2.9
1,934
2.9
2,317
2.9
3,090
2.9
3,461
2.9
3,029
2.9
2,759
2.9
2,979
2.9
3,387
2.8
3,976
2.8
4,919
2.8
6,707
2.8
8,938
2.7
12,504
2.7
17,922
2.7
28,715
2.7
33,360
2.7
4,930
3.5
11,168
2.8
1,772
2.9
1,461
2.9
1,527
2.8
1,989
2.9
2,383
2.9
3,179
2.9
3,561
2.9
3,116
2.9
2,838
2.9
3,064
2.9
3,483
2.9
4,089
2.8
5,058
2.8
6,893
2.8
9,185
2.8
12,848
2.8
18,413
2.7
29,495
2.7
34,267
2.7
5,103
3.5
11,482
2.8
1,823
2.9
1,502
2.9
1,570
2.9
2,046
2.9
2,452
2.9
3,271
2.9
3,663
2.9
3,205
2.9
2,919
2.9
3,152
2.9
3,583
2.9
4,205
2.8
5,201
2.8
7,085
2.8
9,439
2.8
13,203
2.8
18,917
2.7
30,295
2.7
35,195
2.7
5,283
3.5
11,807
2.8
1,876
2.9
1,546
2.9
1,615
2.9
2,105
2.9
2,523
2.9
3,365
2.9
3,769
2.9
3,298
2.9
3,003
2.9
3,243
2.9
3,686
2.9
4,326
2.9
5,350
2.9
7,285
2.8
9,703
2.8
13,570
2.8
19,439
2.8
31,122
2.7
36,155
2.7
5,473
3.6
12,141
2.8
1,930
2.9
1,590
2.9
1,661
2.8
2,165
2.9
2,595
2.9
3,462
2.9
3,877
2.9
3,393
2.9
3,090
2.9
3,336
2.9
3,791
2.9
4,449
2.9
5,502
2.8
7,489
2.8
9,975
2.8
13,947
2.8
19,975
2.8
31,970
2.7
37,140
2.7
5,672
3.6
12,487
2.9
1,986
2.9
1,635
2.9
1,709
2.9
2,227
2.9
2,670
2.9
3,563
2.9
3,990
2.9
3,492
2.9
3,179
2.9
3,432
2.9
3,901
2.9
4,578
2.9
5,660
2.9
7,702
2.8
10,257
2.8
14,339
2.8
20,531
2.8
32,851
2.8
38,162
2.8
5,882
3.7
12,840
2.8
2,042
2.9
1,682
2.9
1,758
2.8
2,291
2.9
2,747
2.9
3,665
2.9
4,105
2.9
3,592
2.9
3,271
2.9
3,531
2.9
4,013
2.9
4,709
2.9
5,821
2.9
7,920
2.8
10,545
2.8
14,739
2.8
21,099
2.8
33,749
2.7
39,205
2.7
6,100
3.7
13,203
2.8
2,101
2.9
1,730
2.8
1,808
2.8
2,356
2.9
2,826
2.9
3,771
2.9
4,224
2.9
3,696
2.9
3,365
2.9
3,632
2.9
4,128
2.9
4,844
2.9
5,988
2.9
8,144
2.8
10,842
2.8
15,151
2.8
21,683
2.8
34,673
2.7
40,277
2.7
6,327
3.7
13,575
2.8
2,161
2.9
1,779
2.8
1,859
2.8
2,424
2.8
2,907
2.9
3,879
2.9
4,345
2.9
3,802
2.9
3,462
2.9
3,736
2.9
4,246
2.9
4,982
2.9
6,158
2.8
8,374
2.8
11,146
2.8
15,573
2.8
22,282
2.8
35,619
2.7
41,374
2.7
6,566
3.8
13,957
2.8
2,222
2.8
1,829
2.8
1,911
2.8
2,492
2.8
2,990
2.9
3,990
2.9
4,469
2.9
3,911
2.9
3,561
2.9
3,843
2.9
4,367
2.9
5,124
2.8
6,333
2.8
8,609
2.8
11,458
2.8
16,005
2.8
22,895
2.8
36,587
2.7
42,497
2.7
6,819
3.9
14,321
2.6
2,279
2.5
1,875
2.5
1,959
2.5
2,556
2.5
3,067
2.6
4,094
2.6
4,586
2.6
4,012
2.6
3,652
2.6
3,941
2.6
4,480
2.6
5,256
2.6
6,496
2.6
8,827
2.5
11,749
2.5
16,414
2.6
23,483
2.6
37,532
2.6
43,596
2.6
7,069
3.7
14,697
2.6
2,337
2.5
1,922
2.5
2,008
2.5
2,621
2.5
3,146
2.6
4,201
2.6
4,706
2.6
4,117
2.6
3,747
2.6
4,043
2.6
4,595
2.6
5,392
2.6
6,664
2.6
9,053
2.6
12,049
2.6
16,835
2.6
24,088
2.6
38,506
2.6
44,729
2.6
7,329
3.7
15,081
2.6
2,396
2.5
1,970
2.5
2,058
2.5
2,687
2.5
3,226
2.6
4,310
2.6
4,829
2.6
4,224
2.6
3,843
2.6
4,147
2.6
4,714
2.6
5,531
2.6
6,836
2.6
9,283
2.5
12,356
2.5
17,266
2.6
24,708
2.6
39,502
2.6
45,888
2.6
7,599
3.7
2.6
12,672
2.6
17,711
2.6
25,346
2.6
40,530
2.6
4,836
2.6
5,674
2.6
7,013
2.6
9,520
2.6
47,083
2.6
7,881
3.7
2,756
2.5
3,310
2.6
4,422
2.6
4,955
2.6
15,477
2.6
2,457
2.5
2,019
2.5
2,109
2.5
4,334
2.6
3,942
2.6
4,254
2.5
12,996
2.6
18,165
2.6
25,999
2.6
41,580
2.6
4,961
2.6
5,821
2.6
7,194
2.6
9,762
2.6
48,304
2.6
8,180
3.8
2,826
2.5
3,395
2.6
4,538
2.6
5,085
2.6
15,882
2.6
2,519
2.5
2,070
2.5
2,162
2.5
4,446
2.6
4,044
2.6
4,363
2.5
13,328
2.6
18,631
2.6
26,669
2.6
42,658
2.6
5,089
2.6
5,971
2.6
7,380
2.6
10,011
2.6
49,558
2.6
8,490
3.8
2,898
2.5
3,482
2.6
4,656
2.6
5,218
2.6
16,298
2.6
2,583
2.5
2,121
2.5
2,216
2.5
4,562
2.6
4,148
2.6
4,476
2.6
13,669
2.6
19,109
2.6
27,358
2.6
43,765
2.6
5,220
2.6
6,126
2.6
7,570
2.6
10,267
2.6
50,846
2.6
8,809
3.8
2,971
2.5
3,572
2.6
4,777
2.6
5,354
2.6
16,726
2.6
2,649
2.5
2,175
2.5
2,271
2.5
4,680
2.6
4,255
2.6
4,591
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
72

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 24
Education Spending— What’s Possible Scenario
Total education spending
(2012 $ millions)
Elementary and secondary
2003–04 2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28 2028–29 2029–30 2030–31 2031–32 2032–33 2033–34 2034–35
54,334 56,329
3.7
62,022
10.1
63,620
2.6
68,772
8.1
71,843
4.5
75,142
4.6
77,559
3.2
79,529
2.5
79,305
–0.3
81,833 84,006 86,323 88,627
3.2
2.7
2.8
2.7
91,133 94,025
2.8
3.2
97,101 100,348 103,687 107,372 111,214 115,237 119,341 123,690 128,189 132,723 137,157 141,502 146,051 150,674 155,316 159,873
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.9
39,212 40,180
2.5
44,710
11.3
44,639
–0.2
47,356
6.1
49,787
5.1
50,730
1.9
53,297
5.1
55,060
3.3
54,244
–1.5
55,832
2.9
57,507 59,468
3.0
3.4
61,589 63,892
3.6
3.7
66,417 69,089
4.0
4.0
71,864
4.0
74,678
3.9
77,619 80,589 83,544
3.9
3.8
3.7
86,431
3.5
89,341 92,321 95,380 98,458 101,456 104,448 107,429 110,403 113,368
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.7
Postsecondary
15,122
73,636
16,148
6.8
17,312
7.2
74,369 80,895
1.0
8.8
18,981
9.6
80,468
–0.5
21,416
12.8
83,893
4.3
22,056
3.0
84,193
0.4
24,412
10.7
82,273
–2.3
24,262
–0.6
82,212
–0.1
24,469
0.9
81,645
–0.7
25,061
2.4
26,001 26,499 26,854
3.8
1.9
1.3
27,038
0.7
27,241 27,609
0.8
1.3
28,011 28,484 29,009
1.5
1.7
1.8
29,753 30,624
2.6
2.9
31,693 32,910 34,348 35,869
3.5
3.8
4.4
4.4
37,343 38,699 40,046
4.1
3.6
3.5
41,603 43,245
3.9
3.9
44,913 46,505
3.9
3.5
79,305 81,606 81,897 82,110 82,249 82,512 83,052 83,677 84,371 85,053 85,932 86,832 87,780 88,691 89,683 90,683 91,604 92,356 92,959 93,606 94,213 94,746 95,145
–2.9
2.9
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.4
Total education spending
(2012 $)
Elementary and secondary
Postsecondary
Total education spending (per student, 2012 $)
Elementary and secondary
Postsecondary
53,141
20,494
11,872
10,644
16,937
53,049
–0.2
21,320
4.0
12,022
1.3
10,709
0.6
17,300
2.1
58,315
9.9
22,580
5.9
13,142
9.3
11,864
10.8
18,204
5.2
56,460
–3.2
24,008
6.3
13,160
0.1
11,621
–2.1
19,118
5.0
57,768
2.3
26,125
8.8
13,800
4.9
12,021
3.4
20,516
7.3
58,346
1.0
25,848
–1.1
13,887
0.6
12,258
2.0
19,836
–3.3
55,544
–4.8
26,729
3.4
13,444
–3.2
11,749
–4.2
19,198
–3.2
56,494
1.7
25,717
–3.8
13,397
–0.4
12,010
2.2
17,952
–6.5
56,525
0.1
25,120
–2.3
13,328
–0.5
12,044
0.3
17,536
–2.3
54,244
–4.0
55,677 56,063 56,566
2.6
0.7
0.9
57,157
1.0
57,848 58,665 59,538 60,422
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.5
61,257
1.4
62,120 62,922 63,639 64,233
1.4
1.3
1.1
0.9
64,778 65,309 65,830 66,297
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
66,651 66,942
0.5
0.4
67,173 67,348 67,468
0.3
0.3
0.2
25,061 25,929 25,834 25,544 25,093 24,664 24,387 24,139 23,949 23,796 23,812 23,911 24,142 24,458 24,905 25,374 25,773 26,058 26,308 26,664 27,040 27,398 27,676
–0.2
3.5
–0.4
–1.1
–1.8
–1.7
–1.1
–1.0
–0.8
–0.6
0.1
0.4
1.0
1.3
1.8
1.9
1.6
1.1
1.0
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.0
12,938 13,281 13,382 13,378 13,357 13,337 13,324 13,298 13,266 13,227 13,209 13,182 13,161 13,141 13,142 13,149 13,153 13,144 13,126 13,123 13,123 13,127 13,129
–2.9
2.7
0.8
0.0
–0.1
–0.2
–0.1
–0.2
–0.2
–0.3
–0.1
–0.2
–0.2
–0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
–0.1
–0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
11,549
–4.1
17,494
–0.2
11,808
2.2
18,143
3.7
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
11,808
0.0
18,143
0.0
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
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73

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 25
OAS Shock—Key Economic Indicators, Canada
GDP at market prices
Implicit price deflator
U.S. gross domestic product
Consumer price index
Total employment
Unemployment rate
Private non-farm average hourly earnings
Real disposable income
Housing starts
Prime rate
Canada three-month Treasury bill
U.S. three-month Treasury bill
Exchange rate
(000s)
(000s)
(2007 $ millions)
(2007 = 1)
(C$/US$)
(2009 US$ billions)
(2002 = 1)
(2007 $ millions)
Private non-farm productivity
Corporate profits before taxes
(2002 $ 000s)
($ millions)
U.S. federal funds rate
Merchandise terms of trade
Current account balance ($ millions)
2022–23
0
0.00
0.000
0.00
0
0.00
0.000
0.00
0
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.00
0
0.00
0.000
0.00
0
0.00
0.000
0.00
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.00
0.000
0.000
0
2023–24
–193
–0.01
0.000
0.00
0
0.00
0.000
0.00
–1
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.00
–645
–0.05
0.001
0.00
–130
–0.05
0.001
0.00
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.00
0.000
0.000
87
2024–25
–571
–0.03
0.000
0.00
0
0.00
0.000
0.00
–4
–0.02
0.0
0.0
0.00
–1,775
–0.14
0.003
0.01
–313
–0.12
0.006
0.00
–0.006
–0.006
0.000
0.000
0.00
0.000
0.000
325
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
0.040
0.02
–0.020
–0.020
0.000
0.000
0.01
0.000
0.000
665
–0.01
–2,985
–0.23
0.006
0.01
–567
–0.21
2025–26
–1,021
–0.05
0.000
–0.01
0
0.00
0.000
–0.01
–8
–0.04
0.0
0.0
0.150
0.08
–0.041
–0.041
0.000
0.000
0.02
0.000
0.000
1,085
–0.02
–4,230
–0.32
0.010
0.02
–840
–0.30
2026–27
–1,422
–0.06
0.000
–0.03
0
0.00
0.000
–0.02
–12
–0.06
0.1
0.0
0.370
0.20
–0.065
–0.064
0.000
0.000
0.05
0.000
0.000
1,547
–0.03
–5,443
–0.40
0.013
0.02
–1,117
–0.38
2027–28
–1,705
–0.07
–0.001
–0.05
0
0.00
–0.001
–0.04
–15
–0.07
0.1
0.0
1.146
0.63
–0.106
–0.105
0.000
0.001
0.11
0.000
0.000
2,566
–0.08
–7,449
–0.53
0.017
0.03
–1,565
–0.49
2029–30
–1,866
–0.08
–0.002
–0.11
0
0.00
–0.002
–0.09
–18
–0.09
0.1
0.0
0.706
0.38
–0.087
–0.086
0.000
0.001
0.08
0.000
0.000
2,062
–0.06
–6,685
–0.49
0.015
0.02
–1,398
–0.46
2028–29
–1,888
–0.08
–0.001
–0.08
0
0.00
–0.001
–0.06
–17
–0.08
0.1
0.0
1.659
0.92
–0.116
–0.115
0.000
0.002
0.14
0.000
–0.001
2,878
–0.12
–7,201
–0.51
0.017
0.03
–1,601
–0.48
2030–31
–1,517
–0.06
–0.002
–0.15
0
0.00
–0.002
–0.12
–16
–0.08
0.1
0.0
2.683
1.51
–0.093
–0.093
0.000
0.002
0.17
0.000
–0.001
3,196
–0.17
–6,225
–0.42
0.013
0.02
–1,439
–0.40
2032–33
–612
–0.02
–0.003
–0.19
0
0.00
–0.003
–0.16
–7
–0.03
0.0
–0.1
2.196
1.22
–0.111
–0.111
0.000
0.002
0.16
0.000
–0.001
3,066
–0.14
–6,708
–0.47
0.015
0.02
–1,538
–0.44
2031–32
–1,021
–0.04
–0.003
–0.17
0
0.00
–0.003
–0.14
–12
–0.06
0.1
–0.1
3.238
1.86
–0.045
–0.045
0.000
0.001
0.14
0.000
0.000
3,656
–0.20
–6,108
–0.40
0.010
0.01
–1,410
–0.35
2034–35
–760
–0.03
–0.003
–0.20
0
0.00
–0.004
–0.19
–5
–0.02
0.0
–0.1
3.042
1.73
–0.068
–0.068
0.000
0.002
0.16
0.000
0.000
3,377
–0.19
–6,030
–0.40
0.011
0.02
–1,387
–0.36
2033–34
–507
–0.02
–0.003
–0.20
0
0.00
–0.003
–0.18
–5
–0.02
0.0
–0.1
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74

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 26
OAS Shock—GDP by Expenditure
(2007 $ millions)
Final consumption expenditure
Household final consumption expenditure
Non-profit institutions serving households’ consumption expenditure
General governments’ final consumption expenditure
Gross fixed capital formation
Business
Intellectual property products
Non-profit institutions serving households
General governments
Final domestic demand
Investments in inventories
Exports of goods and services
Less: Imports of goods and services
Real net exports
GDP at market prices
2022–23
0
0.00
0
0.00
0
0.00
0
0.00
0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0
0
0.0
0.00
0
–0.3
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
2023–24
–180
–0.01
–188
0.00
–39
–218
0.0
–66
1
0.0
–67
0.0
0.00
0
0.00
0
0.00
–39
–0.3
–5
24
–193
0.0
0.0
0
0.0
0
2024–25
–595
–0.03
–631
0.00
–166
–0.02
–167
–0.3
–25
–760
0.0
–97
8
0.0
–244
0.0
0.00
0
0.00
7
91
–571
0.0
0.0
0
0.0
0
2025–26
–1,101
–0.05
–1,189
–0.01
–1
0.00
31
–0.01
–366
–1,467
–0.1
–123
33
0.0
–489
–0.1
188
–1,021
0.0
–0.04
–368
–0.3
–66
–0.1
0
0.0
0
2026–27
–1,609
–0.06
–1,779
–0.03
–1
0.00
77
–0.02
–601
–2,215
–0.1
–132
85
0.0
–786
–0.1
313
–1,422
–0.1
–0.06
–605
–0.3
–114
–0.2
0
0.0
0
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
2027–28
–2,054
–0.07
–2,336
–0.05
0
0.00
151
–0.04
–840
–2,906
–0.1
–137
168
0.0
–1,106
–0.1
458
–1,705
–0.1
–0.07
–846
–0.3
–158
–0.3
0
0.0
0
2029–30
–2,699
–0.08
–3,288
–0.11
1
0.00
373
–0.09
–1,291
–4,015
–0.2
–88
420
0.0
–1,753
–0.2
779
–1,866
–0.1
–0.09
–1,299
–0.3
–212
–0.4
0
0.0
0
2028–29
–2,454
–0.08
–2,878
–0.08
0
0.00
250
–0.06
–1,076
–3,547
–0.2
–144
283
0.0
–1,446
–0.2
621
–1,888
–0.1
–0.08
–1,083
–0.3
–191
–0.3
0
0.0
0
2030–31
–2,557
–0.06
–3,308
–0.15
3
0.00
512
–0.12
–1,410
–4,002
–0.2
–28
564
0.1
–1,899
–0.2
883
–1,517
–0.1
–0.08
–1,419
–0.3
–207
–0.3
0
0.0
0
2032–33
–1,887
–0.02
–2,918
–0.19
7
0.00
771
–0.16
–1,410
–3,345
–0.1
10
790
0.1
–1,878
–0.2
954
–612
0.0
–0.03
–1,417
–0.3
–104
–0.2
0
0.0
1
2031–32
–2,226
–0.04
–3,126
–0.17
5
0.00
649
–0.14
–1,433
–3,702
–0.2
7
697
0.1
–1,928
–0.2
940
–1,021
0.0
–0.06
–1,441
–0.3
–164
–0.3
0
0.0
1
2034–35
–1,796
–0.03
–3,045
–0.20
9
0.00
952
–0.19
–1,554
–3,408
–0.1
–40
807
0.1
–1,793
–0.2
929
–760
0.0
–0.02
–1,561
–0.3
–52
–0.1
0
0.0
1
2033–34
–1,731
–0.02
–2,876
–0.20
8
0.00
871
–0.18
–1,433
–3,216
–0.1
–13
829
0.1
–1,819
–0.2
946
–507
0.0
–0.02
–1,439
–0.3
–57
–0.1
0
0.0
1
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75

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 27
OAS Shock—Federal Government Revenues
($ millions)
Budgetary revenues
Income tax
Personal income taxes
Corporate income taxes
Other
Employment insurance revenues
Total excise taxes
Goods and services tax
Other excise taxes and duties
Custom and import duties
Energy taxes
Other excise taxes and duties
Other revenues
2022–23
0.0
0
0.0
0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
0
0.0
0
2023–24
–165
0.0
–152
–0.1
–121
–0.1
–31
–0.1
0
–1
0.0
0
0.0
–1
0.0
–1
0.0
0.0
–1
0.0
–10
0.0
–8
0.0
–2
0.0
2024–25
–470
–0.1
–423
–0.1
–349
–0.2
–75
–0.1
0
–0.1
–29
–0.1
–3
0.0
0
0.0
–5
0.0
–2
0.0
0.0
–5
0.0
–35
–6
0.0
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
2025–26
–846
–0.2
–752
–0.3
–616
–0.3
–135
–0.2
0
–7
–0.1
0
0.0
–11
–0.1
–4
–0.1
–13
0.0
0.0
–11
0.0
–70
–0.1
–58
–0.1
2026–27
–1,272
–0.3
–1,121
–0.4
–920
–0.4
–200
–0.3
0
–12
–0.2
0
0.0
–19
–0.1
–6
–0.1
–21
0.0
0.0
–19
–0.1
–112
–0.2
–93
–0.2
2027–28
–1,731
–0.4
–1,517
–0.5
–1,251
–0.5
–266
–0.4
0
–18
–0.3
0
0.0
–26
–0.1
–8
–0.1
–30
–0.1
0.0
–27
–0.1
–158
–0.2
–131
–0.3
2029–30
–2,644
–0.5
–2,297
–0.6
–1,923
–0.7
–373
–0.5
0
–30
–0.4
0
0.0
–41
–0.2
–11
–0.1
–49
–0.1
0.0
–43
–0.1
–255
–0.3
–214
–0.4
2028–29
–2,236
–0.5
–1,955
–0.6
–1,621
–0.6
–333
–0.5
0
–34
–0.2
–10
–0.1
–24
–0.4
0
0.0
–40
–0.1
0.0
–35
–0.1
–207
–0.3
–174
–0.3
2030–31
–2,792
–0.5
–2,405
–0.6
–2,023
–0.7
–382
–0.5
0
–34
–0.5
0
0.0
–44
–0.2
–10
–0.1
–56
–0.1
0.0
–49
–0.2
–282
–0.4
–239
–0.4
2032–33
–2,864
–0.5
–2,439
–0.6
–2,096
–0.7
–343
–0.4
0
–35
–0.5
0
0.0
–42
–0.2
–7
–0.1
–63
–0.1
0.0
–56
–0.2
–307
–0.4
–264
–0.4
2031–32
–2,841
–0.5
–2,431
–0.6
–2,064
–0.7
–367
–0.4
0
–44
–0.2
–8
–0.1
–35
–0.5
0
0.0
–60
–0.1
0.0
–53
–0.2
–297
–0.4
–253
–0.4
2034–35
–3,151
–0.5
–2,659
–0.6
–2,323
–0.7
–336
–0.4
0
–33
–0.5
0
0.0
–43
–0.2
–10
–0.1
–73
–0.1
0.0
–71
–0.2
–348
–0.4
–306
–0.5
2033–34
–2,962
–0.5
–2,511
–0.6
–2,180
–0.7
–331
–0.4
0
–34
–0.5
0
0.0
–41
–0.2
–7
–0.1
–67
–0.1
0.0
–62
–0.2
–322
–0.4
–281
–0.5
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76

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 28
OAS Shock—Federal Government Expenditures
($ millions)
Budgetary expenditures
Program spending
Major transfers to persons
Old Age Security
Employment insurance benefits
Children’s benefits
Transfers to other governments
CHST (other CHT not shown)
CHT
CST
Fiscal arrangements (Youth Allowances
Recovery and statutory subsidies not shown)
Equalization
Territorial Formula Financing
Canada’s cities and communities
Other transfers
Alternative Payments for Standing Programs
Direct program spending
Public debt charges
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
0
0.0
0
2022–23
0
0.0
0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
0
0.0
0
2023–24
–959
–0.2
–959
–0.3
–957
–0.9
–968
–1.3
11
–1
0.0
–1
0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
2024–25
–2,611
–0.7
–2,561
–0.7
–2,552
–2.2
–2,602
–3.4
50
0.2
0
0.0
–2
0.0
–2
0.0
–2
0.0
0
0.0
–1
0.0
–1
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
–6
0.0
–50
–0.1
0.0
–4
0.0
–7
0.0
0
0.4
0
0.0
–11
0.0
–7
0.0
2025–26
–4,490
–1.1
–4,303
–1.2
–4,275
–3.5
–4,379
–5.4
104
–17
0.0
–187
0
0.0
0
0.0
–0.5
0.0
0
0.0
–4
0.0
0
–18
0.0
0
0.0
–9
0.0
0.6
0
0.0
–27
0.0
–18
0.0
2026–27
–6,617
–1.6
–6,196
–1.6
–6,132
–4.8
–6,292
–7.3
160
–37
0.0
–421
0
0.0
0
0.0
–1.1
0.0
0
0.0
–9
0.0
0
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
–35
–0.1
0
0.0
–17
–0.1
0.8
0
0.0
–52
–0.1
–35
0.0
2027–28
–8,953
–2.0
–8,201
–2.1
–8,083
–6.1
–8,289
–9.2
206
–67
0.0
–752
0
0.0
0
0.0
–2.0
–17
–0.1
0
0.0
0
0.0
–77
–0.1
0
0.0
–38
–0.1
0.9
0
0.0
–115
–0.1
–77
–0.1
2029–30
–13,693
–3.0
–11,994
–2.8
–11,724
–8.1
–11,983
–12.0
259
–154
–0.1
–1,699
0.0
0
0.0
–4.8
–38
–0.1
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
–55
–0.1
0
0.0
–27
–0.1
0.9
0
0.0
–82
–0.1
–55
–0.1
2028–29
–11,602
–2.6
–10,424
–2.5
–10,237
–7.4
–10,477
–11.0
241
0
0.0
0
0.0
–106
–0.1
–1,178
–3.2
–27
–0.1
0
0.0
0
0.0
–101
–0.2
0
0.0
–50
–0.1
0.8
0
0.0
–151
–0.1
–101
–0.1
2030–31
–14,371
–3.0
–12,095
–2.7
–11,738
–7.8
–11,966
–11.5
228
–207
–0.1
–2,276
0.0
0
0.0
–6.9
–50
–0.2
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
–138
–0.2
0
0.0
–68
–0.2
0.3
0
0.0
–206
–0.2
–138
–0.2
2032–33
–15,069
–3.0
–11,706
–2.5
–11,196
–6.9
–11,285
–10.0
90
–305
–0.2
–3,363
0.0
0
0.0
–12.2
–68
–0.2
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
–122
–0.2
0
0.0
–60
–0.2
0.5
0
0.0
–182
–0.2
–122
–0.1
2031–32
–14,742
–3.0
–11,907
–2.6
–11,467
–7.3
–11,630
–10.7
163
–258
–0.1
–2,835
0.0
0
0.0
–9.3
–60
–0.2
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
–157
–0.2
0
0.0
–78
–0.2
0.1
0
0.0
–235
–0.2
–157
–0.2
2034–35
–16,544
–3.2
–12,155
–2.4
–11,544
–6.7
–11,587
–9.6
43
–377
–0.2
–4,389
0.0
0
0.0
–21.7
–78
–0.2
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
–148
–0.2
0
0.0
–74
–0.2
0.1
0
0.0
–222
–0.2
–148
–0.2
2033–34
–15,683
–3.1
–11,812
–2.4
–11,246
–6.7
–11,290
–9.7
44
–344
–0.2
–3,871
0.0
0
0.0
–16.0
–74
–0.2
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
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77

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 29
OAS Shock—Budgetary Balance and Debt, Federal Government
($ millions)
Budgetary revenues
Program spending
Operating balance
2022–23
–
–
–0.02
2023–24
–164.80
0.0
–958.50
–0.3
793.68
2024–25
–469.50
–0.1
–2,560.80
–0.7
2,091.25
2025–26
–845.50
–0.2
–4,302.80
–1.2
3,457.27
2026–27
–1,272.20
–0.3
–6,196.00
–1.6
4,923.80
Public debt charges
Total budgetary balance
Budgetary balance as a percentage of GDP
Accumulated deficit
Non-financial assets
Net debt
Interest-bearing debt
Net debt per capita
Net debt as a share of GDP
–
–0.02
–0.00
0.10
–
0.10
0.0
0.10
0.0
0.00
0.0
–0.71
0.0
794.38
0.03
–794.30
–0.01
0.0
–794.30
–0.1
–794.30
–0.1
–20.16
–0.1
–50.13
–0.1
2,141.38
0.07
–2,935.70
–0.09
0.0
–2,935.80
–0.5
–2,935.80
–0.3
–73.74
–0.5
–187.23
–0.5
3,644.50
0.12
–6,580.10
–0.30
0.0
–6,580.50
–1.1
–6,580.50
–0.8
–163.62
–1.1
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
–420.58
–1.1
5,344.37
0.17
–11,924.60
–0.76
0.0
–11,925.30
–2.1
–11,925.30
–1.5
–293.58
–2.1
2027–28
–1,730.90
–0.4
–8,201.10
–2.1
6,470.18
–752.13
–2.0
7,222.31
0.22
–19,146.80
–1.57
0.0
–19,148.50
–3.5
–19,148.50
–2.5
–466.88
–3.5
2028–29
–2,236.40
–0.5
–10,424.20
–2.5
8,187.78
–1,178.14
–3.2
9,365.93
0.28
–28,512.80
–2.85
0.0
–28,515.60
–5.6
–28,515.60
–3.9
–688.75
–5.6
2029–30
–2,643.80
–0.5
–11,993.50
–2.8
9,349.67
–1,699.03
–4.8
11,048.70
0.32
–39,561.40
–4.69
0.0
–39,566.20
–8.5
–39,566.20
–5.8
–946.93
–8.5
2030–31
–2,791.70
–0.5
–12,094.70
–2.7
9,302.99
–2,275.99
–6.9
11,578.99
0.32
–51,140.40
–7.14
0.0
–51,147.60
–12.3
–51,147.60
–8.0
–1,213.19
–12.3
2031–32
–2,840.70
–0.5
–11,907.10
–2.6
9,066.46
–2,834.98
–9.3
11,901.41
0.32
–63,041.90
–10.17
0.0
–63,052.10
–17.7
–63,052.10
–11.0
–1,482.57
–17.7
2032–33
–2,864.20
–0.5
–11,706.30
–2.5
8,842.10
–3,362.85
–12.2
12,204.91
0.31
–75,246.80
–13.71
0.0
–75,260.50
–26.4
–75,260.50
–14.9
–1,754.69
–26.4
2033–34
–2,961.80
–0.5
–11,812.00
–2.4
8,850.20
–3,870.52
–16.0
12,720.63
0.32
–87,967.42
–17.68
0.0
–87,985.10
–43.4
–87,985.10
–20.8
–2,034.51
–43.4
2034–35
–3,151.00
–0.5
–12,154.90
–2.4
9,003.90
–4,389.32
–21.7
13,393.21
0.32
–101,360.66
–21.99
0.0
–101,382.64
–93.2
–101,382.60
–30.8
–2,325.52
–93.2
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78

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 30
OAS Shock—Provincial Government Revenues
($ millions)
Total revenues
Own-source revenues
Tax revenues
Personal income taxes
Corporate income tax
Retail sales tax
Other tax revenue
Other
Tobacco tax
Gasoline and fuel tax
Property tax
Other tax revenue
Other revenues
Royalties
Crown corporations
Other
Transfers from Government of Canada
Canada Health Transfer
Canada Social Transfer
Equalization
2022–23
0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0
0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
2023–24
0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
–2
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
–4
0.0
–1
0.0
0
0.0
0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
–1
0
0
0.0
–1
–22
–0.1
–11
0.0
–109
0.0
–109
0.0
–105
0.0
–70
–0.1
2024–25 2025–26
–12
0.0
–7
0.0
0.0
–17
–0.1
–5
0.0
0.0
–30
0.0
–8
–0.1
–2
0.0
–4
0
0.0
–4
0.0
–1
0.0
–97
–0.2
–80
–0.1
–14
0
0
0.0
–9
–588
–0.1
–576
–0.1
–546
–0.2
–355
–0.3
–3
0.0
–2
0.0
0.0
–8
0.0
–2
0.0
0.0
–14
0.0
–4
0.0
–1
0.0
–1
0
0.0
–1
0.0
0
0.0
–6
0
0
0.0
–4
–54
–0.1
–40
–0.1
–317
–0.1
–314
–0.1
–300
–0.1
–201
–0.2
2026–27
–30
0.0
–18
0.0
0.0
–27
–0.1
–11
0.0
0.0
–52
0.0
–14
–0.2
–4
0.0
–8
0
0.0
–9
0.0
–3
0.0
–144
–0.3
–127
–0.2
–27
0
0
0.0
–15
–909
–0.2
–879
–0.2
–827
–0.3
–530
–0.4
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Find this and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
2027–28
–56
0.0
–35
–0.1
–0.1
–39
–0.1
–20
0.0
0.0
–77
–0.1
–18
–0.3
–7
0.0
–15
0
0.0
–17
–0.1
–5
0.0
–192
–0.4
–179
–0.2
–43
0
0
0.0
–22
–1,266
–0.2
–1,210
–0.3
–1,133
–0.3
–720
–0.5
2029–30
–127
–0.1
–77
–0.1
–0.1
–63
–0.2
–45
–0.1
–0.1
–134
–0.1
–26
–0.4
–16
–0.1
–34
0
0.0
–38
–0.1
–11
–0.1
–269
–0.5
–291
–0.3
–85
0
0
0.0
–36
–2,013
–0.3
–1,886
–0.4
–1,752
–0.5
–1,107
–0.7
2028–29
–89
–0.1
–55
–0.1
–0.1
–51
–0.2
–31
–0.1
–0.1
–105
–0.1
–23
–0.4
–11
–0.1
–23
0
0.0
–27
–0.1
–8
–0.1
–240
–0.5
–236
–0.3
–63
0
0
0.0
–29
–1,666
–0.3
–1,577
–0.3
–1,472
–0.4
–933
–0.6
2030–31
–166
–0.1
–101
–0.2
–0.1
–71
–0.2
–61
–0.1
–0.1
–157
–0.1
–26
–0.5
–21
–0.1
–45
–275
–0.5
–325
–0.4
–107
0
0
0.0
–41
–2,193
–0.3
–2,028
–0.4
–1,870
–0.5
–1,164
–0.7
0
0.0
–50
–0.1
–15
–0.1
2032–33
–228
–0.2
–138
–0.2
0.0
–79
–0.2
–89
–0.2
–0.2
–187
–0.1
–19
–0.5
–31
–0.2
–66
–247
–0.4
–360
–0.4
–139
0
0
0.0
–42
–2,368
–0.4
–2,139
–0.4
–1,952
–0.5
–1,206
–0.7
0
0.0
–68
–0.2
–22
–0.2
2031–32
–0.1
–76
–0.2
–76
–0.1
–201
–0.2
–122
–0.2
–0.5
–26
–0.1
–56
–0.1
–174
–0.1
–23
–264
–0.4
–345
–0.4
–125
0
0
0.0
–42
–2,297
–0.4
–2,096
–0.4
–1,921
–0.5
–1,188
–0.7
0
0.0
–60
–0.2
–19
–0.1
2034–35
–262
–0.2
–157
–0.2
0.0
–92
–0.2
–111
–0.2
–0.2
–220
–0.2
–17
–0.5
–38
–0.2
–82
–242
–0.4
–416
–0.4
–160
0
0
0.0
–40
–2,636
–0.4
–2,374
–0.4
–2,154
–0.5
–1,337
–0.7
0
0.0
–78
–0.2
–27
–0.2
2033–34
0.0
–84
–0.2
–101
–0.2
–247
–0.2
–148
–0.2
–0.2
–202
–0.1
–16
–0.5
–35
–0.2
–75
–238
–0.4
–382
–0.4
–150
0
0
0.0
–41
–2,474
–0.4
–2,227
–0.4
–2,025
–0.5
–1,255
–0.7
0
0.0
–74
–0.2
–25
–0.2
79

A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD
Canada’s Economic and Fiscal Prospects
Appendix B | The Conference Board of Canada
Table 31
OAS Shock—Provincial Government Expenditures
($ millions)
Total expenditures
Total program expenditures
Health
Social services
Education
Other program expenditures
Interest payments
Net transfer to capital assets (Nunavut)
Other adjustments to balance
Stabilization reserve
Surplus/deficit
Accumulated deficit
Non-financial assets
Net debt
2022–23
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0
0
0.0
2023–24
20
0.0
21
0.0
0
0.0
–1
0.0
–1
0.0
23
0.1
–1
0.0
0
0
0.0
0
–128
129
0.0
0
0.0
129
0.0
2024–25
65
0.0
70
0.0
–8
0.0
85
0.2
–3
0.0
–4
0.0
–5
0.0
0
0
0.0
0
–382
511
0.1
0
0.0
510
0.1
2025–26
80
0.0
102
0.0
–11
0.0
–11
0.0
–25
0.0
150
0.3
–22
0.0
0
0
0.0
0
–668
1,179
0.2
–1
0.0
1,179
0.1
2026–27
50
0.0
109
0.0
–27
0.0
–24
0.0
–59
0.0
219
0.4
–59
–0.1
0
0
0.0
0
–958
2,138
0.3
–1
0.0
2,137
0.2
Notes: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second line (in italics) is the percentage change. The shaded area represents the forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
2027–28
–39
0.0
80
0.0
–113
0.0
287
0.6
–50
0.0
–43
0.0
–119
–0.2
0
0
0.0
0
–1,228
3,368
0.4
–3
0.0
3,365
0.3
2029–30
–382
–0.1
–92
0.0
–286
–0.1
419
0.8
–124
–0.1
–100
–0.1
–290
–0.3
0
0
0.0
0
–1,631
6,492
0.6
–9
0.0
6,484
0.5
2028–29
–179
0.0
19
0.0
–189
–0.1
359
0.7
–83
–0.1
–69
–0.1
–198
–0.3
0
0
0.0
0
–1,487
4,857
0.5
–5
0.0
4,853
0.4
2030–31
–676
–0.1
–296
0.0
–400
–0.1
409
0.7
–170
–0.1
–135
–0.1
–380
–0.4
0
0
0.0
0
–1,518
8,015
0.7
–13
0.0
8,002
0.5
2031–32
–965
–0.1
–524
–0.1
–519
–0.2
381
0.7
–218
–0.1
–168
–0.1
–440
–0.5
0
0
0.0
0
–1,332
9,353
0.7
–18
0.0
9,334
0.6
2033–34
–1,299
–0.2
–931
–0.1
–739
–0.2
333
0.6
–301
–0.2
–224
–0.2
–368
–0.3
0
0
0.0
0
–1,175
11,724
0.7
–32
0.0
11,692
0.6
2032–33
–1,187
–0.1
–745
–0.1
–634
–0.2
350
0.6
–263
–0.2
–198
–0.2
–442
–0.4
0
0
0.0
0
–1,181
10,541
0.7
–25
0.0
10,516
0.6
2034–35
–1,305
–0.1
–1,081
–0.1
–833
–0.2
332
0.5
–334
–0.2
–245
–0.2
–224
–0.2
0
0
0.0
0
–1,332
13,065
0.7
–40
0.0
13,025
0.6
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80

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