Climate Summary
for the
Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership
Compiled by:
Linda Joyce1, Marian Talbert2, Darrin Sharp3, John Stevenson4 and
Jeff Morisette2
1USFS
Rocky Mountain Research Station
2DOI North Central Climate Science Center
3Oregon Climate Change Research Inst. (OCCRI)
4PNW Climate Impacts Research Consortium (CIRC)
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outline
- General overview of climate modeling
- Historical and projected climate for the NRAP region
- Sub-region specific climate information
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Historical data
Long term (paleo-climate)
Observations from weather stations
Gridded observations
Historical modeled
Projections for future scenarios
Global Climate Models
Statistically Downscaled Global Climate Models
Regional Climate Models
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Model physics
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Downscaling
Image courtesy of John Stamm, USGS
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Modeled
human
(anthropogenic)
forcings
RCP = representative
concentration pathways
Energy sources by sector (van Vuuren et.al. 2011)
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The NRAP Climate Summary Chapter will use…
Historical Climate Data come from:
• Maurer et al. dataset (2002)
• PRISM (2014)
Modeled climate data come from:
• CMIP5 - Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Data
• Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP): 4.5 and 8.5
• with Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) statistical
downscaling algorithm (Wood et al., 2004)
• Looking at “normal” (~30 year averages) for
1979-2009, 2030-2059, and 2070-2099.
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Variability across climate models
Example for
NRAP Central Region
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Central NRAP Subregion Historic and Projected Climate
Climatologically, the region sits at the boundary between the warm, wet, maritime
airflows from the Pacific Ocean, and the cooler, drier airflows from Canada.
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Historic trends indicate statistically significant warming, with a minimal increase in ppt.
Tmax = 0.13 °F/decade, Tmin = 0.26 °F/decade.
4km PRISM data
Projections call for continued warming, with emissions being a major uncertainty.
Tmin/Tmax +5-11 °F by 2100, as compared to 1950-2012.
CMIP5 model ensemble
Projections call for continued warming, with emissions being a major uncertainty.
Tmin/Tmax +5-11 °F by 2100, as compared to 1950-2012.
CMIP5 model ensemble
Projections for ppt are less certain; but it will probably be slightly wetter on an annual basis.
CMIP5 model ensemble
Seasonal Tmax. Warmer in all seasons.
CMIP5
model ensemble
Seasonal Tmin. Warmer in all seasons.
CMIP5
model ensemble
Seasonal Precipitation.
Suggestion is for drier summers; wetter winters and springs; fall about the same.
CMIP5
model ensemble
Other subregions exhibit similar responses.
Mean Monthly Tmax, Tmin, Ppt
Tmax
(°F)
Tmin
(°F)
Ppt (in)
Historic (18952012)
+0.5-2
+2-3
Slight increase
Future
(at 2100)
+5-11
+5-11
An increase of ~5-15% annually
• Fall = ~same
• Winter & Spring = a little wetter
• Summer = a little drier
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Regional summary:
Yellowstone:
Climate variability is strongly influenced by the interactions
with topography, elevation, and aspect.
Grasslands:
Pattern of dryer west and wetter east, with the average of
climate models showing a slight shift for more of the wetter
east and warming implies earlier snow melt.
East, Central, and West: Warmer and slightly wetter.
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Some important terms & acronyms
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Assessment Reports (AR)
FAR (first AR), second (SAR), third (TAR), AR4, AR5,…
CMIP5 - Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project
(CMIP5 = most current & goes with Assessment Report 5)
GCM: Global Climate Models
RCM: Regional Climate Models
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (which is the CMIP5
term for emissions scenarios, in CMIP3 they were referred to as SRES,
special report on Emissions Scenarios)
Downscaling: statistical or dynamical
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