Rhode Island CRMC-Planning for Climate Change and Sea Level Rise. What We Have In Place already Erosion Rate Mapping For The Entire Shoreline. Ban On Shoreline Protection Structures Dune Protection-No Development Erosion Rate Setbacks—Off Ban on Infrastructure Both Public And Private On Barrier Systems Classification Barriers 82% No Residential Or Commercial Structures Sea Level Rise Policy (3-5 Feet) It is the lens which we look at all other policies Coastal Hazards Additional Considerations for the Future Add Freeboard for Strom Surge Erosion Setbacks Adjusted for Sea Level Rise Coastal A Zone with Adjustment for Sea Level Rise for A and V zones TDR’s redirecting Development Coastal Hazards and Climate Change Sediment Transport Pathways Charlestown – Green Hill Barrier and Headland The Message: Many Directions and Processes Green Hill Lagoon Ninigret Lagoon l n Hil e e r G Barrie Green Hill Headland r Trustom Lagoon Climate Change and the Future Shore Zone of Rhode Island Rhode Island Possible Future Climate North Jersey – Now Already ??? Rhode Island Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Climate, Impacts, and Solutions, NECIA, 2007 http://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org/ Carbon Dioxide - CO2 Levels Now 394+ ppm A Cause for Concern http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/science/past-present-and-future.html#3 THE HOCKEY STICK Medieval Warm Period The Message Temp lags CO2 Little Ice Age Moberg et al, 2005 Greenland Outlet Glaciers Change from Polythermal to Warm Based A Key to Future Sea-Level Rise Brathwaite, 2002 Eustatic Sea-Level Rise + Isostatic Rebound at Block Island RI Isostatic Rebound Relative Sea Level Eustatic Sea Level Laurentide Ice Sheet? Laurentide . -1 2m Ice100yr Sheet? 2m.100yr-1 Antarctic Ice Sheet? 2-5m.100yr-1 Explanation Oakley and Boothroyd, July 2012 6.1 ft VR Max 4.5 ft 185 cm VR A1F1 137 cm VR B1 100 cm Height above NOW 1.4 ft 41 2050 Shoreline Change (Beach) SAMP Coastal Hazards and Climate Change Summary for Rhode Island: • Glacial Geology, Past and Present, the Underlying Key to Understanding Processes and Products • Storms the Most Important Driver in Coastal Change • Sea-Level Rise a Secondary Effect • Future Major Storms Combined With Sea-Level Rise a Very Large Problem • Accelerated Sea-Level Rise Resulting in Inundation also a Very Large Potential Problem • RICRMC Planning for a 3-5 foot Rise by 2100 Depositional Environments Moonstone-Matunuck Shoreface Dp ss GO bgc Dp ss Css sd Dpv cg Moonstone-Matunuck Barrier/Headland Shoreface How Does This Play Out In The Field? Frontal Erosion 1939-2011 Browning Cottages, Moonstone Beach, RI n Actio 2011 House moved to Upland 2006 1939 Browning’s Cottages Historic District 1972 Houses moved 50 feet landward 1999 1992 Houses threatened again ISDS damaged 2007 South Kingstown Town Beach Courtesy of Jon Boothroyd August 1994 South Kingstown, RI – Town Beach An Eroding Glacial Bluff Shore BA Oakley Napatree Barrier – Westerly, RI Little Narragansett Bay Watch Hill Hehre and Boothroyd, 2007 Napatree Barrier – Shoreline Change Map 2004 – Sound Side 1939 – Sound Side -71.6m 1939 – Ocean Side 2004 – Ocean Side Hehre and Boothroyd, 2007 Narragansett Pier Area Inundation Depths based on 2012 DFIRMs Wastewater Pump Station Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons 2003 – 2004 Orthophoto Today Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons 2100 Inundation – 5 ft 200 ft Barrier Migration Projected Charlestown Beach Storm Surge 100 Year Event in 2008 WAVE ENVELOPE and STORM SURGE for 100 YEAR EVENT Charlestown Beach - CHA-EZ Elevation Above MLLW - feet Jon C Boothroyd, Bryan A Oakley, GEO 577 Class - 2007 2007 Wave Envelope - ft 20 10 V19 V17 Storm Surge 1938 + Sea-level Rise V16 20 V18 V17 V16 V15 13.87 ft 10 House MHHW 0 V21 MSL 2007 0 NGVD 1929 Sediment eroded from profile -10 -300 -200 -100 0 100 -10 200 300 400 500 600 700 Distance Landward from Mean Sea Level - feet 800 900 1000 1100 1200 Ninigret Lagoon Today Ninigret Lagoon Today East Beach Barrier – Ninigret Lagoon - View East