EUROPEAN GAS DAILY
Volume 20 / Issue 215 / November 5, 2015
News & Analysis
Market Commentary
OMV to launch 2016/17 stock auction on Store-x
Dutch flow drop supports NBP spot
■■1.7 TWh working gas volume offered
■■Traders wait for additional info to consider bids
Spot gas prices on the UK’s NBP trading hub found support Wednesday
in what is overall a bearish market as gas flows from the Netherlands
(continued on page 2)
Engie hit by weaker commodity prices, LNG
Gas Natural Q3 sales down 3% on year
Gas Natural expects its first US LNG in 2016
Lithuania LNG plant brings bargaining power
‘Efficiency gains may boost Norway output’
2
2
2
3
9
(Eur/MWh)
Day ahead
22
Forex, oil buffet TTF markets
ZEE prices largely steady, tracking UK
German curve supported by weaker euro
French spot plunges after early gains
PSV curve edges higher
Winter-15
Summer-16
Q1-16
UK NBP
21
Day ahead
December
20
Dutch TTF
19
Day ahead
December
18
p/thEur/MWh
$/MMBtu
% change D-1
36.725
17.759
5.650
39.00018.859 6.000
-0.27 ▼
36.148
17.475
5.562
37.07917.925 5.705
-0.14 ▼
0.00 —
+0.42 ▲
Belgian Zeebrugge Beach
17
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Source: Platts
Nov-15Oct-15
(Trade date)
3.5
Day ahead
December
(Eur/MWh)
36.100
17.457
5.556
37.35018.061 5.749
-0.14 ▼
36.148
17.475
5.562
37.49318.125 5.769
-1.96 ▼
36.717
17.750
5.650
38.21718.475 5.880
-3.27 ▼
36.872
17.825
5.673
37.28618.025 5.737
-0.56 ▼
+0.13 ▲
+0.14 ▲
French TRS*
Day ahead
Quarter ahead
3.0
Day ahead
December
French PEG Nord
PSVNCG LOCATION SPREADS
Day ahead
December
2.5
2.0
+0.54 ▲
German GASPOOL
1.5
Day ahead
December
1.0
0.5
+0.42 ▲
NetConnect Germany
0.0
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Source: Platts
Oct-15 Nov-15
(Trade date)
UK CLEAN SPARK VS CLEAN DARK SPREADS – MONTH AHEAD
10
4
5
5
6
7
Platts European gas midpoints, November 4, 2015
NCG TIME SPREADS
23
(continued on page 4)
(Eur/MWh)
Dark
8
Spark 50% HHV
Spark 45% HHV
Day ahead
December
36.614
17.700
5.634
37.59618.175 5.785
-0.98 ▼
Day ahead
38.269
+0.14 ▲
December
38.32018.525 5.896
+0.41 ▲
+0.51 ▲
+0.41 ▲
Austrian VTP
18.500
5.888
Italian PSV
6
Day ahead
41.165
4
December
41.37220.000 6.366
+0.38 ▲
2
Spanish AOC
0
December
40.64819.650 6.254
-0.76 ▼
-2
02-Jul
17-Jul 03-Aug 18-Aug 03-Sep 18-Sep 05-Oct 20-Oct 04-Nov
(Trade date)
19.900
6.334
All prices assessed at 16:30 London time. At month roll, the day-on-day percentage change
for month-ahead contracts will reflect delivery-month comparison where applicable.
Spreads include CPS – Carbon Price Support. Efficiency at Higher Heating Value.
Source: Platts
www.platts.com
www.twitter.com/PlattsGas
NATURAL GAS
European Gas Daily
November 5, 2015
NEWS & ANALYSIS
OMV to launch 2016/17 stock auction on Store-x
...from page 1
STORAGE The Austrian natural gas storage operator OMV Gas Storage
will hold a capacity storage auction of about 1.7 TWh (160 million cu
m) working gas volume November 26 for the year April 2016 to April
2017, European trading platform Store-x, which markets primary and
secondary gas storage capacity products, said this week.
The operator OMV will offer 100 standard bundle products, each
one consisting of:
n Injection rate: 8 MWh/h (18,000 cu m/d)
n Withdrawal rate: 12 MWh/h (27,200 cu m/d)
n Working gas volume: 17,000 MWh (1.6 million cu m)
Some traders said they would need to get further information on
the reserve price as well as on the injection and withdrawal specific
period in order to evaluate whether they want to bid.
All relevant documents for the auction will be published November
12 2015, Store-x said in a press release.
As part of the so-called keyed auction procedure, the bidder has
to submit a binding offer in the form of a bid, while the operator has to
determine a call period, which should not be more than three months.
Store-x will forward all offers submitted by bidders to the operator
once the invitation to tender ends.
Store-x will then inform the bidders when they have forwarded
the bid to the operator, which will decide whether to accept or not the
offers forwarded by Store-x.
OMV has over 2 Bcm of storage capacity in Austria and Germany.
— Lucie Roux
Engie hit by weaker commodity prices, LNG
■■Revenues slip in first nine months of 2015
■■LNG business hit by Yemen, Egypt issues
■■Oil, gas output rises on new field contributions
UTILITIES French energy group Engie said Wednesday its nine-month
operating performance was hit by falling commodity prices, which,
among other things, led to lower realized prices and reduced arbitrage
opportunities for its LNG activities.
As a result of the more challenging operating environment, Engie
said it expected its net income for 2015 to come in at the lower
end of a previously adjusted range of Eur2.75 billion-3 billion ($3
billion-$3.25 billion).
Total group revenues in the first nine months amounted to $53.5
billion, down 1.5% from the same period last year, Engie — formerly
known as GDF Suez — said in an earnings statement.
“This decrease is notably due to the drop in commodity prices and
the unavailability of Doel 3 and Tihange 2 nuclear plants, despite a
more favorable temperature compared to 2014,” Engie said.
The group was hit particularly badly in its global gas and LNG
division, where revenues in the first nine months were down 38% year
on year to Eur3.2 billion.
“This significant decrease is explained by the drop in oil and gas
prices on the European and Asian markets, largely reducing arbitrage
opportunities for the LNG activity, and by the disruption in supply
from Egypt since January 2015 as well as from Yemen since April,”
Engie said.
The Yemen LNG plant, with which Engie has a long-term LNG
purchase agreement, has been offline since mid-April amid increasing
security concerns around the facility.
Copyright © 2015 McGraw Hill Financial
2
No cargoes have been exported from the facility since mid-April.
Egypt has diverted its gas production for domestic use given
increasing shortages.
Oil, gas output
Engie said its total oil and gas production through the end of
September was 43.5 million barrels of oil equivalent (160,000 boe/d).
That is an increase of 15,000 boe/d compared with the yearago period.
Engie said the rise was “thanks to contributions coming from fields
commissioned in 2014, Juliet in the UK, Amstel in the Netherlands and
Gudrun in Norway.”
The group also reiterated its pledge not to invest in new coal-fired
power generation.
“In October, Engie announced that all its new investments in power
production will be in projects that emit no or little CO2, in renewable
energies and in natural gas,” it said.
“This economic and ecological decision to build no further coalfired power plants, leads to stop all projects which had not yet been
firmly committed.” — Stuart Elliott
Gas Natural Q3 sales down 3% on year
■■Spanish sales fall 5% year on year
■■European distribution rises 7% at 37.6 TWh
■■Power generation falls 1% on year in the period
DEMAND Spanish power and gas utility Gas Natural Fenosa reported
Wednesday that its wholesale gas sales in the third quarter fell 3% year
on year to 66.8 TWh following lower demand in the domestic market.
Sales fell 5% year on year to 39.2 TWh in Q3 while sales outside
Spain decreased 1% year on year to 27.5 TWh, according to a
regulatory filing.
Meanwhile the company said that the volume of gas distributed to
European retail customers was up 7% year on year to 37.3 TWh.
The volume of electricity distributed in Europe was down 3% in
annual comparison at 8.3 TWh.
The company ended the year with 5.7 million points of gas sale
within the region, up 0.4% year on year, and 4.5 million points of
electricity sale, also up 0.4% year on year.
In the power segment, the company reported a 1% fall in Spanish
power generation to 9 TWh in the wake of a 26% drop in hydropower
generation to 317 GWh. In contrast, nuclear generation increased 12%
year on year to 1.2 TWh and coal-based production 6% over the period
to 2.8 TWh. — Gianluca Baratti
Gas Natural expects its first US LNG in 2016
■■CEO sees early FOB quantities
■■Company paying $6.33/MMBtu FOB in 2016
LNG Spain’s Gas Natural Fenosa expects to obtain some early
quantities of LNG from the US Sabine Pass LNG terminal during 2016,
according to company CEO Rafael Villaseca.
The company, which has a 4.8 Bcm/year contract starting in 2017,
said Wednesday it expects to place some volume ahead of that date,
without saying how much.
Villaseca said the company has already made agreements to sell
3 Bcm of the annual 4.8 Bcm it has agreed to buy from the plant’s
operator Cheniere Energy.
Villaseca said Gas Natural would buy US gas at an average of
$6.33/MMBtu on a FOB basis for 2016.
The company said it expects to sell 120 TWh of LNG globally in
2016, with 80% of that volume already covered. — Gianluca Baratti
European Gas Daily
November 5, 2015
Lithuania LNG plant brings bargaining power
■■LNG facility boosts supply security: Misiunas
■■Eyes role as key regional gas supplier
■■Terminal currently has 3.5 Bcm of spare capacity
LNG Before Lithuania began importing LNG at the end of 2014, the
move had already proven to be beneficial for the small Baltic country
— it enabled Vilnius to win a much better price from Gazprom for its
Russian gas supplies.
And with its new LNG import facility holding plenty of spare
capacity, Lithuania hopes to be able to become a bigger regional
supplier of gas, reaching its Baltic neighbors and Poland in the
coming years, the head of Lithuania’s state-controlled energy holding
company told Platts Tuesday.
In a wide-reaching interview, Lietuvos Energija CEO Dalius
Misiunas said the decision to build an LNG import facility had
fundamentally changed market dynamics in Lithuania and the
wider Baltic region.
Up until the start of LNG imports, Lithuania and its neighbors had been
effectively 100% dependent on Russian gas supplies — and that lack of
optionality meant Russia could push the price up as high as it liked.
“LNG gives us additional security of supply and also gives us
independence of supply — it basically reduced the dependence on a
single source, which in turn impacted prices,” Misiunas told Platts.
“The same year we started LNG supplies we had a reduction in the
Gazprom price, which brought us back to the European market level.”
Since 2003, the price Lithuania paid for Russian gas went up from
$85/1,000 cu m to some $500/1,000 cu m just a few years ago.
“That was a real threat to our economy,” Misiunas said.
“The price now — we basically pay a similar price to what the
Germans are paying, the European level.”
Platts assessed the German Gaspool day-ahead gas price Tuesday
at $5.754/MMBtu — or the equivalent of $207.80/1,000 cu m.
Russian gas auctions?
By introducing competition to Russian gas, Lithuania won some muchneeded bargaining power.
The discount it won for its Russian gas imports was “substantial,”
Misiunas said, at around
22%-23%. And it was retroactively applied, bringing the overall
price down further.
But what of the future?
Misiunas said it was possible Gazprom could switch its sales
mechanism to the Baltic region and hold auctions to sell its gas.
“We are observing the situation around what Gazprom’s strategy
will be for next year. They have done some pilot auctions and they
have just announced recently that they could use an auction system
for Baltic supplies as well.
It depends on how that will develop and what mechanism they will
choose for their supplies to the region,” he said. Gazprom has to face
up to the fact that countries are no longer as dependent on Russian
gas as they were in the past and that it increasingly faces competition
from LNG in Europe.
“My belief is that we will have more competition on the
market,” Misiunas said. “The cost of Russian gas is much lower
than the current sales price — the breakeven price. They have
sufficient flexibility to compete. That is a decision [for them] on
how they see their future markets and how far they want to go
with the competition,” he said.
In 2015, LNG will represent 25% of Lithuania’s total gas
consumption which is expected to be 2-2.1 Bcm.
So Russia still supplies 75% of Lithuania’s gas.
Economic rationale
Indeed, there have been some question marks about the economic
viability of the LNG import terminal in Lithuania given that it is currently
vastly underused and Russian gas is still cheaper. But Misiunas said it
was not just about economics.
“This project is a security of supply project. Then if you evaluate all
the factors — including the reduction in the Russian gas price — then
you can see the economic reason behind it,” he said.
“What we have today is security of supply at a higher level, we have
two different sources of gas and the infrastructure to cover all our
demand from each of those sources. And we have negotiating power
on both sides.
“When you compare it with where we were two years ago, it’s a
completely different story.”
The facility has a current maximum import capacity of 4 Bcm/year,
but a total of only 0.5 Bcm is expected to be delivered this year.
The spare capacity means Lithuania could import more LNG for
onward supply to its neighbors.
“This is part of our plans — we want this market to develop. Since
the beginning of the year we have supplied some gas from Lithuania
to Estonia. We are now talking to the Latvians about supplying gas to
them. Our goal is to activate the market as much as possible. Our LNG
facility can support the whole region.”
In addition, Misiunas said Lithuanian-imported LNG could also go to
Poland via a planned gas interconnector.
“If the price is good, if it works economically, the structure will
support supplies to Poland once the interconnector is finished,” he
said, adding that the current plan was to complete the line in 2020.
LNG sources, demand concerns
At present, Lithuania imports LNG from a single supplier — Norway’s
Statoil — which was selected in a tender process in August 2014.
But Lietuvos Energija also has a number of master trade
agreements (MTAs) with different LNG suppliers to enable it to buy
spot cargoes.
One MTA is with the US.
“We are definitely looking into the US market at the moment, we
have been in talks with most of the export terminal developers, and we
are evaluating US export potential,” Misiunas said.
But, he said, Lithuania would not eye LNG imports from the US’ first
phase of export projects.
“Later projects — those coming online in 2019-2022 — this could
have potential.”
But while Lietuvos Energija has plans for a diverse LNG import
portfolio, there is one lingering doubt about the region’s future
prospects — falling demand.
“Unfortunately consumption is going down in Lithuania, and has
been going down rapidly in the past few years,” Misiunas said.
“And next year, consumption will be a further 10%-15% lower. It’s
not good news for the gas industry.”
The main drivers of demand decline for gas is the increased use of
biomass in heat generation and the removal of subsidies for gas-fired
power generation.
The startup at the end of this year of an electricity
interconnector from Sweden has reduced the need for domestic
power production.
So, while Lithuania is enjoying its newly enhanced gas supply
security, there is little point in having a diversified import portfolio if
you don’t have the demand.
But with other LNG import plans in the region, including
Gasum’s planned Finngulf facility, being abandoned or slowed,
Lietuvos Energija will be pinning its hopes on supplying the wider
Baltic region. — Stuart Elliott
(continued on page 9)
Copyright © 2015 McGraw Hill Financial
3
European Gas Daily
November 5, 2015
Platts UK NBP assessments, November 4, 2015
Market Commentary
Dutch flow drop supports NBP spot
...from page 1
to the UK, which began unexpectedly at the start of the week, ended
as abruptly during the morning, leaving the system short.
At the 1630 UK market close, the within-day contract was valued
at 37.15 pence/therm, up by 0.25 p/th on day, while the day-ahead
contract hit an intraday high of 37.50 p/th before easing into the close,
at 36.725 p/th, to mark a day-on-day loss of 0.10 p/th.
System operator National Grid had demand for the day in its 1400
figures at 257 million cu m, with flows falling behind at 249 million cu m.
After having seen almost no flows since June, gas began coming
into the UK from the Netherlands through the BBL pipeline at the start
of the week, sending 3 million cu m Sunday, 13 million cu m Monday
and 12 million cu m Tuesday. Nominations for Wednesday were back to
zero, Eclipse Energy, an analytics unit of Platts, showed.
Elsewhere, the supply picture looked steady for the UK while
demand for gas fired heating trimmed back as the country enjoys
warmer than average temperatures.
Local distribution zone (LDZ) demand was nominated at 140 million
cu m, down 11 million cu m from Tuesday’s nominations, Eclipse said.
Temperatures in the UK were forecast to climb 3.1 degrees Celsius
above five-year averages Wednesday and are expected to keep
climbing throughout the week to 5.3 C above on Friday, Eclipse said.
Gas prices on the front of the curve held steady with no changes
on day to December (39.00 p/th) or Summer 16 (35.60 p/th), but there
were again firm losses on the far curve.
Winter 17 saw the heaviest fall, losing 0.65 p/th at 39.30 p/th, whereas
contracts from Summer 17 to Winter 19 saw 0.40-0.45 p/th declines.
One market source said the moves are the result of the British
Forex, oil buffet TTF markets
Dutch curve prices came under the influence of both a weaker euro
and falling crude oil markets Wednesday, with contracts retracing early
forex-driven gains in response to oil price declines.
Winter 17 dealt up at Eur18.65/MWh in the early afternoon, marking
a 15 euro cent rise from Tuesday’s close. However, it had fallen 20 euro
cent off its intra-day high by 16:30 London time to be assessed 5 euro
cent down day on day at Eur18.45/MWh.
Brent December crude was almost $1/b lower day on day at
$48.81/b. Winter 18 TTF posted the strongest net response to the oil
declines, falling by 10 euro cent day on day to Eur18.45/MWh.
On the near-curve, early forex-related gains outpaced later
bearish sentiment from lower crude oil to leave contracts slightly up
on the day.
By the close, Q1 15 and Summer 16 were both assessed 7.5 euro
cent higher at Eur18.05/MWh and Eur17.425/MWh, respectively.
On the prompt, day-ahead posted similar intra-day movements
to the curve, with early strength giving way to declines from midafternoon.
By the close, the spot was assessed 2.5 euro cent down on the day
at Eur17.475/MWh.
Real-time Norwegian flow rates into Emden-Dornum on the DutchGerman border stood at 145 million cu around 16:30 London time,
according to network operator Gassco.
Gassco reported that the unplanned outage due to compressor
failure at the Asgard field would continue until Sunday or Monday. The
volume impact on Wednesday was 10.5 million cu m/d, falling to 11.3
million cu m/d Thursday.
Copyright © 2015 McGraw Hill Financial
4
p/th
Change D-1Eur/MWh
$/MMBtu
(p/th)
UK NBP market
Within day
37.150+0.25017.964 5.715
DA 11:00 am
37.200+0.30017.988 5.723
Day ahead
36.725-0.10017.759 5.650
Weekend35.900+0.05017.360 5.523
Working week+1
36.700-0.30017.747 5.646
Balance month
38.000+0.10018.375 5.846
December39.000+0.00018.859 6.000
January39.500-0.05019.101 6.077
February39.850+0.00019.270 6.131
March 38.900+0.00018.810 5.985
Q1 2016
39.400-0.05019.052 6.062
Q2 2016
35.900+0.00017.360 5.523
Q3 2016
35.300-0.05017.070 5.431
Q4 2016
38.900-0.25018.810 5.985
Summer 16
35.600+0.00017.215 5.477
Winter 16
39.950-0.25019.318 6.146
Summer 17
35.300-0.40017.070 5.431
Winter 17
39.300-0.65019.004 6.046
Summer 18
34.700-0.40016.780 5.338
Winter 18
38.850-0.45018.786 5.977
Summer 19
34.200-0.40016.538 5.262
Winter 19
38.800-0.40018.762 5.969
Gas year 2016 37.625-0.32518.194 5.788
Cal 2016 37.375-0.07518.073 5.750
ICE UK NBP futures, November 4, 2015 (p/th)
Month
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Sum 16
Win 16
Sum 17
Win 17
ClosePrevious ChangeLow
HighVolume
38.95039.000 -0.05038.75039.600 8120
39.41039.450 -0.04039.38040.060 1595
39.76039.800 -0.04039.76040.350 1025
38.86038.900 -0.04038.86039.480 880
37.24037.300 -0.06037.38037.820 120
39.33439.374 -0.04039.35040.000 1835
35.822
35.882
-0.060——
—
35.271
35.344
-0.073——
—
38.953
39.183
-0.230——
25
40.830
41.257
-0.427——
25
35.581
35.964
-0.383——
—
35.087
35.493
-0.406——
—
38.296
38.913
-0.617——
—
35.54535.612 -0.06735.50036.300 2625
39.88140.209 -0.32839.85040.550 1815
35.33335.727 -0.39435.25035.900 745
39.30339.956 -0.65339.25040.000 835
Source: ICE Futures Europe
ICE ENDEX UK OCM, November 3, 2015
No. tradesSAP (p/th)Energy (therms)Values (GBP)
NBP total
127
37.7300
6,665,000
2,514,705
OCM – On-the-day Commodity Market
Source: ICE ENDEX
Platts UK NBP intra-day gas prices: November 4
p/thWithin day (A)Next day (B)EFA day ahead
November 4
37.300
37.200
37.225
Prices assessed at 1100 UK time. EFA day-ahead is calculated at A*6/24 plus B*18/24. This
reflects the difference between the 5am-start gas day and the 11pm-start EFA power
day. During Monday-Thursday only the top row contains data, other rows used ahead of
weekends and bank holidays.
CustomWeather forecast temperatures in Amsterdam at 4
degrees Celsius above the 11/5 C high/low norms Wednesday, with
temperatures predicted as high as 8 C above norms by Saturday.
Eclipse Energy, an analytics unit of Platts, forecast at around 16:30
London time domestic demand in the Netherlands at 90 million cu m,
down from 98.8 million cu m.
Eclipse’s short-term demand model is calculated from demand,
temperature and wind speed outturns in addition to deviations
between weather forecasts and these last outturns.
European Gas Daily
November 5, 2015
ZEE prices largely steady, tracking UK
Gas prices on Belgium’s Zeebrugge trading hub were largely steady
Wednesday, tracking UK movements closely.
The ZEE day-ahead contract closed the session valued at 36.10
pence/therm, down by 0.05 p/th, while its discount to the UK edged
0.05 p/th narrower to 0.625 p/th.
Gas flows from the UK to Belgium across the Interconnector
pipeline were marginally lower on day.
There was 33 million cu m nominated to be sent, down from 36 million
cu m Tuesday, according to Eclipse Energy, an analytics unit of Platts.
The current rates are a step up from the average 29 million cu m/d
sent during October, and a lot more than November last year when
there was a daily average of just 1 million cu m/d, Eclipse data shows.
LNG terminal sendout in Belgium remained at a steady 2 million
cu m/d.
The next LNG tanker scheduled to arrive in Belgium is the Lusail
which is due November 17, Eclipse shows.
It would be the first for the month after four tanker arrivals in
October and three in September.
Gas consumption in Belgium was forecast to fall Wednesday to 49
million cu m from 52 million cu m Tuesday, Eclipse showed.
Eclipse’s short-term demand model is calculated from demand,
temperature and wind speed outturns in addition to deviations
between weather forecasts and these last outturns.
Temperatures in Belgium were forecast to be 3.8 degrees Celsius
above the five-year average Wednesday and are forecast to steadily
rise throughout the week until Saturday when they are expected to be
8.2 C above, Eclipse showed.
The front-month December contract rose by 0.05 p/th to 37.35 p/
th with its discount shrinking marginally, by 0.05 p/th, to 1.65 p/th.
Summer 16 was unchanged at 35.95 p/th with no change to its
premium of 0.35 p/th over the UK.
German curve supported by weaker euro
German wholesale gas curve prices edged up Wednesday as a weaker
euro against the pound supported near-term contracts while the spot
was bearish on mild weather.
December and Q1 16 on NetConnect rose 7.5 euro cent day on day
to Eur18.175/MWh and Eur18.275/MWh, respectively. On the GASPOOL,
the same contracts also rose 7.5 euro cent to Eur18.025/MWh and
Eur18.125/MWh, respectively.
As crude oil prices were bearish Wednesday, the Cal 16 at both
hubs was less supported. December fell 98 cents to $48.81/b at the
close, according to Platts assessments, as investors took profit from
the previous session’s rally.
NetConnect and GASPOOL Cal 16 were flat, closing at Eur18.075/
MWh and Eur17.925/MWh, respectively.
Closer in, the NetConnect day-ahead closed at Eur17.70/MWh,
down 17.5 euro cent, while the GASPOOL equivalent fell 10 euro cent to
Eur17.825/MWh.
CustomWeather forecast temperatures in Berlin to be 4 Celsius
higher than the 9/3 C seasonal norms for Thursday. Temperatures
were predicted to be well above seasonal norms in both cities for the
latter part of the week.
End-of-day imported nominations from Norway into Germany
were 112 million cubic meters at about 1800 London time, according to
Eclipse Energy, an analytics unit of Platts.
Domestic demand in Germany was seen at 285.8 million cu m
Wednesday, Eclipse data showed. Eclipse’s short-term demand
model is calculated from demand, temperature and wind speed
outturns. in addition to deviations between weather forecasts and
these last outturns.
Copyright © 2015 McGraw Hill Financial
5
Platts Dutch TTF assessments (Hi-cal gas)
November 4, 2015
p/thEur/MWh
Change D-1
$/MMBtu
(Eur/MWh)
Day ahead
36.148
17.475-0.0255.562
Weekend
35.89017.350+0.0005.522
Working week+1
36.304
17.550+0.0005.586
December
37.07917.925+0.0755.705
January
37.39018.075+0.0755.753
Q1 2016
37.338
18.050+0.0755.745
Q2 2016
36.200
17.500+0.0755.570
Q3 2016
35.838
17.325+0.0755.514
Q4 2016
38.269
18.500+0.0255.888
Q1 2017
39.200
18.950+0.0256.032
Q2 2017
35.786
17.300-0.0255.506
Summer 16
36.045
17.425+0.0755.546
Winter 16
38.734
18.725+0.0255.960
Summer 17
35.786
17.300-0.0255.506
Winter 17
38.165
18.450-0.0505.872
Summer 18
35.166
17.000-0.0755.411
Winter 18
38.165
18.450-0.1005.872
Gas year 2016 37.286
18.025+0.0005.737
Cal 2016 36.924
17.850+0.0755.681
Cal 2017 37.079
17.925-0.0255.705
Cal 2018 36.614
17.700-0.0755.634
ICE ENDEX Dutch TTF gas futures (Eur/MWh)
November 4, 2015Settle
ChangeVolume
WDNW
First month
Second month
Third month
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
First season
Second season
Third season
Fourth season
First year
Second year
Third year
—
+0.074
+0.056
+0.100
+0.095
+0.118
+0.080
+0.027
+0.099
+0.012
-0.024
-0.045
+0.080
-0.022
-0.070
—
1870
385
20
615
—
—
—
1335
635
145
45
95
75
130
Total volume
5350.00
—
17.950
18.070
18.160
18.075
17.556
17.339
18.524
17.447
18.712
17.307
18.474
17.874
17.918
17.702
Source: ICE ENDEX
Platts Belgian Zeebrugge Beach assessments
November 4, 2015
p/th
Change D-1Eur/MWh
$/MMBtu
(p/th)
Day ahead
36.100-0.05017.457 5.556
Weekend35.250-0.20017.046 5.425
Working week+1
36.000-0.55017.408 5.541
Balance month
36.850+0.10017.819 5.672
December37.350+0.05018.061 5.749
January37.500-0.05018.134 5.772
February38.000+0.00018.375 5.849
Q1 2016
37.550-0.05018.158 5.779
Q2 2016
36.250+0.00017.529 5.579
Q3 2016
35.550-0.05017.191 5.472
Summer 16
35.950+0.00017.384 5.533
Winter 16
38.850-0.30018.786 5.979
Summer 17
35.700-0.35017.263 5.495
Winter 17
38.150-0.65018.448 5.872
Gas year 2016
37.275-0.32518.025 5.737
Platts NBP-Zeebrugge basis differentials
p/th
Change D-1Eur/MWh
(p/th)
Day ahead-0.625+0.050-0.302
December-1.650+0.050-0.798
Platts Zeebrugge Beach day-ahead flow date prices
Flow date
p/th Eur/MWh
November 536.10017.457
European Gas Daily
November 5, 2015
French spot plunges after early gains
Both the PEG Nord and TRS spot prices fell Wednesday on a delayed
correction from Monday’s bullish prices, while the curve was pulled up
by Northwest European gas markets.
The PEG Nord day-ahead lost 35 euro cent to Eur17.475/MWh, and
the TRS fell further, down 60 euro cent to Eur17.75/MWh
On Monday, the contracts had gained 37.5 euro cent on the PEG
Nord and 82.5 euro cent on TRS, while the other equivalent markets
were relatively steady.
On Tuesday, spot levels moved down, but relatively not as much
as they gained Monday, and the French contracts kept a part of their
spread from Monday with the other markets.
The curve ticked up supported by the German and Dutch equivalent
contracts. PEG Nord December gained 2.5 euro cent to Eur18.125/MWh
and the TRS peer gained 10 euro cent to Eur18.475/MWh.
Cal 16 on the PEG Nord was the most bullish contract, up 12.5 euro
cent to Eur18.05/MWh.
Domestic demand in France was seen at 136 million cu m at about
PLATTS DAY-AHEAD GAS PRICES, NOVEMBER 4 (Eur/MWh)
Price up
Price down — Price unchanged
Platts European assessments, November 4, 2015
p/thEur/MWh
Change D-1
(Eur/MWh)
$/MMBtu
French PEG Nord
Day ahead
December
Q1 2016
Summer 16
Cal 2016
36.148
17.475-0.3505.562
37.49318.125+0.0255.769
37.855
18.300+0.0505.825
36.304
17.550+0.1005.586
37.338
18.050+0.1255.745
French TRS*
Day ahead
December
36.717
17.750-0.6005.650
38.21718.475+0.1005.880
German GASPOOL
Day ahead
December
Q1 2016
Summer 16
Cal 2016
36.872
17.825-0.1005.673
37.28618.025+0.0755.737
37.493
18.125+0.0755.769
36.407
17.600+0.0755.602
37.079
17.925+0.0005.705
NetConnect Germany
Day ahead
December
Q1 2016
Summer 16
Cal 2016
36.614
17.700-0.1755.634
37.59618.175+0.0755.785
37.803
18.275+0.0755.817
36.666
17.725+0.0755.642
37.390
18.075+0.0005.753
Austrian VTP
Day ahead
December
38.269
18.500+0.0255.888
38.32018.525+0.0755.896
Italian PSV
Day ahead
December
Q1 2016
Summer 16
41.165
19.900+0.1006.334
41.37220.000+0.0756.366
41.216
19.925+0.0756.342
39.406
19.050+0.0506.063
*TRS – Trading Region South.
TTF
NBP
17.759
Zeebrugge Beach
17.475
GASPOOL
17.825
17.457
Platts Spanish AOC assessments, November 4, 2015
17.700
NCG
PEG Nord
17.475
Austria VTP
18.500
p/thEur/MWh
Change D-1
$/MMBtu
(Eur/MWh)
December40.648
19.650-0.1506.254
17.750
PSV
TRS
19.900
Platts Spanish AOC/LNG differentials, Nov 04, 2015
Platts EAM* minus Spanish AOC gas
p/thEur/MWh
Change D-1
(Eur/MWh)
December differential
2.571
1.243+0.327
$/MMBtu
0.396
*Cargoes lifted Free On-Board (FOB) from production/reload ports across the East Atlantic. Further
information on the EAM is available in the Platts Liquefied Natural Gas Assessments and Netbacks
methodology and specifications guide at www.platts.com.
Source: Platts assessments
EEX German NetConnect gas prices, Nov 4, 2015
Powernext French PEG Nord gas prices, Nov 4, 2015
EEX gas spot price
Spot daily average price
Settlement price
Change
(Eur/MWh)(Eur/MWh)
NCG day ahead 10 MW
17.74
-0.17
Daily average price ChangeTotal volume
(Eur/MWh)(Eur/MWh) (MWh)
PEG Nord day ahead
17.69
-0.18
258690
EEX gas futures
Powernext gas futures
Settlement price
ChangeTotal volume
(Eur/MWh)(Eur/MWh) (MWh)
NCG month ahead
18.22
0.10
22320
NCG month ahead+1
18.39
0.13
37200
NCG quarter ahead
18.38
0.18
174640
NCG quarter ahead+1
17.85
0.17
2184
NCG year ahead
18.22
0.16
0
NCG year ahead+1
18.25
0.01
0
Settlement price
ChangeTotal volume
(Eur/MWh)(Eur/MWh) (MWh)
PEG Nord month ahead
18.13
0.06
37200
PEG Nord month ahead+1
18.35
0.18
0
PEG Nord quarter ahead
18.31
0.19
0
PEG Nord quarter ahead+1
17.63
0.11
0
PEG Nord season ahead
17.54
0.09
0
PEG Nord season ahead+1
19.05
0.05
0
PEG Nord season ahead+2
17.59
0.06
0
Source: EEX
Source: Powernext
Copyright © 2015 McGraw Hill Financial
6
European Gas Daily
November 5, 2015
1800 London time, down from 136.4 million cu m Tuesday, according to
Eclipse Energy, an analytics unit of Platts.
Eclipse’s short-term demand model is calculated from demand,
temperature and wind speed outturns in addition to deviations
between weather forecasts and these last outturns.
The North south link interruptible capacity was restricted by 43%
compared with 17% restriction in the previous day, according to the
operator GRTgaz, but this did not affected the TRS spot prices.
PSV curve edges higher
Italian curve prices Wednesday edged higher for a second day as TTF
prices also ended firmer.
December and Q1 both added 7.5 euro cent from Tuesday to close
at Eur20.00/MWh and Eur19.925/MWh, respectively.
Meanwhile Summer 16 gained 5 euro cent to Eur19.05/MWh.
On the prompt, day-ahead rose 10 euro cent to close at
Eur19.90/MWh.
Minimum temperatures in Milan are seen staying in a tight range
of 8 degrees C to 9 C from Wednesday through to next Tuesday,
according to ilmeteo.it, while minimum temperatures in Rome will fall
from 14 C Wednesday to 9 C by Sunday.
As of 1300 local time, Italy had nominated 132 million standard
cubic meters in gas imports for Thursday, up 1 million cu m from
Wednesday, according to data from transmission system operator
Snam, while total demand was indicated 1 million cu m lower from
the previous day at 173 million cu m with storage withdrawals flat at
40 million cu m.
On the G+1 storage platform Tuesday, 11 parties traded 91.6 GWh of
gas at Eur19.898/MWh, according to Gestore Mercati Energetici.
European Gas Daily – product enhancements to date
October 2, 2015
March 30, 2015
„„
Brand new Spanish AOC price assessment
„„
Brand new Spanish AOC/LNG Differentials
July 1, 2015
„„
Platts price assessment changes
„„
New Platts gas spot price map
„„
Market commentary improvements
„„
Platts monthly EU policy trackers
Front-page formatting and content changes
„„
New “Market Highlights” section
„„
New “Market Commentary” section
„„
New charts area
„„
Modification to “Platts European gas midpoints” table
Publication body formatting and content changes
„„
New “Key Points” for stories
„„
New “Tabs” tagging
„„
New structure to better facilitate price comparison
European Gas Daily is published daily Monday-Friday except for UK
public holidays, by Platts, a division of McGraw Hill Financial, registered
office: 20 Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London, UK, E14 5LH.
Officers of the Corporation: Harold McGraw III, Chairman; Doug
Peterson, President and Chief Executive Officer; David Goldenberg,
Acting General Counsel; Jack F. Callahan Jr., Executive Vice President
and Chief Financial Officer; Elizabeth O’Melia, Senior Vice President,
Treasury Operations.
EUROPEAN GAS DAILY
Volume 20 / Issue 215 / November 5, 2015
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European Gas Daily
November 5, 2015
Fuel Switching Snapshot
Platts daily spot vs NWE oil-indexed gas indicator
Platts cross fuel comparisons, November 4, 2015
November 4, 2015
NBP day ahead – current month
NBP month ahead – month ahead
NBP month ahead+1 – month ahead+1
Eur/MWh
-4.781
-2.859
-1.563
p/th
-10.515
-6.517
-3.808
$/MMBtu
-1.644
-1.028
-0.610
TTF day ahead – current month
TTF month ahead – month ahead
TTF month ahead+1 – month ahead+1
Eur/MWh
-5.065
-3.793
-2.589
p/th
-11.092
-8.438
-5.918
$/MMBtu
-1.732
-1.323
-0.934
Coal CIF ARA
Month ahead
90 Days
p/thEur/MWh$/MMBtu
38.495
38.389
UK gas prices at NBP
Balance month
December
January
Q1 2016
76.00036.74211.692
78.00037.70912.000
79.00038.19212.154
78.80038.09512.123
Dutch gas at TTF
December
January
Q1 2016
74.15835.85111.409
74.78036.15211.505
74.676
36.102 11.489
18.610
18.559
5.922
5.906
Fuel oil 1% (NW Europe cargoes)
December
January
Q1 2016
116.07656.11617.858
118.92357.49218.296
121.25258.61818.654
Electricity (UK baseload)
December
January
Q1 2016
116.93556.53017.990
120.01358.02018.463
119.13357.59518.328
Electricity (German baseload)
December
January
Q1 2016
62.365
64.123
63.296
30.150 31.000 30.600 9.595
9.865
9.738
Prices in this table show the cost of electricity generated from each fuel, taking into account the
following plant efficiencies: CCGT gas plant 50% HHV, coal 35%, fuel oil 32%. Assumed calorific value:
fuel oil 17,800 Btu/lb, Coal 6,000 kcal/ton. HHV – high heating value.
Platts Coal Switching Price Indicator (CSPI)
UKUKNetherlands
November 4, 2015
(p/th)
(Eur/MWh)
(Eur/MWh)
Month ahead
41.2319.9313.07
Quarter ahead
40.5219.5910.19
Year ahead
39.98
19.33
9.98
Efficiency used is 50% for gas plants, 35% for UK coal plants and 40% for Dutch coal plants. Platts CSPI is the
theoretical threshold at which gas is more competitive than coal in power generation. When the gas price is
higher than the CSPI, CCGTs are more expensive to run than coal-fired plants.
COAL SWITCHING PRICE INDICATOR VS NBP – QUARTER AHEAD
49
The differential table shows the difference between the spot gas price and the indicator.
Platts November 2015 NWE oil-indexed gas indicator
Eur/MWh
Current month
Month ahead
Month ahead+1 Change M-1
p/th
$/MMBtu
22.540-0.73347.240 7.294
21.718-0.82245.517 7.028
20.664-1.05443.308 6.687
The Monthly NWE oil-indexed gas contract indicator is a modeled price reflecting the cost of gas sold in NW
Europe under a traditional long-term sales contract indexed against fuel oil and gasoil. The model does not
include any adjustment for discounts from contract renegotiations. Prices are originally calculated in Euro
per MWh, then converted to p/th and $/MMBtu using current exchange rate.
N2EX UK power auction, spark spread: November 4
Delivery date: November 5
N2EX – day ahead power auction
Platts – EFA day ahead gas*
NASDAQ OMX – UK day ahead spark spread
37.69 GBP/MWh
37.230 p/th
11.84 GBP/MWh
*Reflects 11pm start electricity day
Forex indicators, November 4, 2015
NOKSKrDKrSFrGBPUS $
ZlotyTRY
Euro 9.35979.37087.45941.0785 0.70581.08604.23283.1027
US $ 8.62018.63026.86960.9931 0.65001.00002.8572
Source: Tullett Prebon, spot FX at 16:00 London time
(p/th)
NBP Q4-15
CSPI 50% Q4-15
47
NBP Q1-16
CSPI 50% Q1-16
Weather summary, November 4, 2015
45
Week normal high/low temps (C) and projected deviations from normal
43
CelsiusNormal 04 05 06 07 0809 10
Central Europe
41
39
02-Jul
17-Jul 03-Aug 18-Aug 03-Sep 18-Sep 05-Oct 20-Oct 04-Nov
(Trade date)
CSPI includes CPS – Carbon Price Support. Efficiency at Higher Heating Value.
Source: Platts
Berlin
Frankfurt-Am-Main
Prague
Vienna
Warsaw
9/3 0+4+6+7+6+5+6
10/5 0+4+6+6+5+5+3
8/2 +3+5+7+7+9+7+5
11/4 +1+3+5+6+8+8+7
8/2
+1
-1
0
+2
+6 +4
+3
Northwest Europe
CLEAN SPARK SPREAD, NOVEMBER 4, 2015 50% EFFICIENT
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
(Eur/MWh)
Amsterdam
Brussels
London
Paris
11/5 +4+5+7+8+4+6+5
11/5 +4+6+8
+10+6+6+4
12/6 +3+4+6+6+3+4+3
12/6 +4+6+7+9+7+6+4
Scandinavia
Copenhagen
Helsinki
Oslo
Stockholm
9/5 +1+3+5+6+5+4+4
5/1 +5+1+2+4+5+3+2
4/-1 +7+4+6+9+7+6+8
6/2 +5+5+5+6+6+3+4
Southern Europe
UK*
DA
German
Dutch
MA
Belgian
MA+1
QA
*UK spreads exclude UK-specific CPS – Carbon Price Support.
Source: Platts
Copyright © 2015 McGraw Hill Financial
8
QA+1
Lisbon
Madrid
Milan
19/13 +3+2+4+4+4+4+3
17/6 +2+4+5+7+7+5+6
13/5 +4+4+5+6+6+7+7
Source: CustomWeather, 04Nov15/06:54 AM EST/1154 GMT
European Gas Daily
November 5, 2015
NEWS & ANALYSIS CONTINUED
‘Efficiency gains may boost Norway output’
■■“Positive signs emerging”: Petoro
■■Q3 oil, gas production up 24% on year
PRODUCTION Petoro, the government-owned company that manages
all its stakes in Norway’s oil and gas fields, says the efficiency gains
currently being implemented in the industry will pay dividends in the
form of eventual increased activity on the shelf, a spokesman said
Wednesday.
Widespread cost-cutting by companies led by state-controlled
Statoil have meant projects being delayed and even canceled.
Petoro spokesman Geir Gjervan told Platts by telephone that the
company detected some positive signs emerging.
“There are some positive indications of change with the
industry is moving in the right direction,” he said, adding that the
rate of drilling in some Norwegian installations had doubled against
last year’s rate.
Consultancy WoodMac estimated earlier in the year that total
spending on the Norwegian shelf would shrink 25% in 2015 compared
with 2014, and some analysts have said it could be more.
Gjervan said it was positive that Statoil, as the leading operator,
was now saying clearly that costs must be reduced to the level which
prevailed in the industry during the early 2000s.
“That’ll boost the profitability of new projects and yield increased
activity on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS),” Gjervan said.
Petoro, announcing its own third-quarter figures, said doubling
in the pace of drilling on certain installations showed that it was
possible to meet ambitions for efficiency improvements which
halved costs.
It added that given what had been seen so far, it still believed great
potential for improvement exists.
The spokesman would not comment on the timing of when Petoro
expected to see an increase in activity or what impact it would have on
Norwegian production.
Petoro reported that Q3 production from its stakes in Norwegian oil
and gas fields increased to 1.051 million boe/d, up 24% on the year.
Gjervan said the increase was mainly due to higher gas production.
“Most of the gas increase [compared with last year] took place in
the second and third quarters. It was production deferred from last
year,” Gjervan added.
He would not say if the increased gas production was expected to
continue into the fourth quarter.
Petoro posted Q3 net income of NOK17.3 billion ($2.0 billion),
compared with NOK19.5 billion a year earlier. — Patrick McLoughlin
EC eyes 2018 for EU 2030 energy plans
governments and checked by the EC to see, among other things,
if collectively they will achieve the EU’s 2030 energy and climate
goals.
These goals are to cut EU greenhouse gas emissions by at least
40% on 1990 levels, to source at least 27% of final EU energy demand
from renewables and to improve EU energy efficiency by at least 27%
compared with energy demand projections.
The EC is to propose legislation next year to set the legal
framework for these goals, which EU leaders agreed in principle in
October 2014.
The emissions target is to be met partly by reductions achieved
through the EU’s emissions trading system, and partly by binding
national targets covering non-ETS sectors such as buildings, transport
and agriculture.
The renewables target would only be binding at EU level, and the
efficiency target is not binding at all, so the national plans are key to
monitoring if the EU targets will be achieved.
Governments would have to deliver final plans to the EC in 2018,
taking into account any comments from the EC or the peer review.
The EC would publish a first aggregate assessment of all the plans
in its 2018 state of the EU energy union report.
Regional approach, streamlined reporting
The EC wants national governments to cooperate and coordinate with
their neighbors when preparing the plans, paying “particular attention”
when developing new energy resources and infrastructures.
Governments would have to include in their plans assessments
of how their national policies will impact their neighbors and how to
strengthen regional cooperation.
The EC said it would publish detailed guidance for governments on
such regional cooperation next year.
Governments would also have to report on their progress in
carrying out the plans to the EC every two years from 2020, and the EC
would include this in its annual state of the EU energy union reports.
The national plans would be updated once in 2024 to adapt to
changing conditions and to keep on track for the 2030 goals, the
EC said.
It said it would propose legislation next year to streamline
national government’s planning and reporting requirements and
also publish a template for the integrated national energy and
climate plans.
Governments already provide separate national renewables and
energy efficiency plans with regular progress reports, as well as
regular reporting of their emissions, as part of efforts to reach the EU’s
2020 energy and climate goals. — Siobhan Hall
‘Aphrodite gas not shut-out of Egypt by Zohr’
■■Aphrodite plan to be finalized in coming months
■■Gas headed to Egypt for re-export, domestic use
■■Work to start 2016, first drafts due by mid-2017
■■Plans must deliver EU 2030 energy, climate goals
POLICY & REGULATION The European Commission wants the 28 EU
national governments to start work on integrated energy and
climate plans for 2021 to 2030 next year and finalize them in 2018,
according to unofficial draft EC guidance on the plans seen by
Platts Wednesday.
Governments should submit first drafts to the EC by mid-2017,
the EC said in its guidance paper, which is due to be published
on November 18 with the EC’s first annual state of the EU energy
union report.
These drafts would be peer reviewed by other national
Copyright © 2015 McGraw Hill Financial
9
PRODUCTION Gas from Cyprus’ Aphrodite gas field had not been shut
out of the Egyptian market following the discovery of the Zohr gas
field, Noble Energy’s Cyprus Country Manager L. Gene Kornegay told
delegates at an Economist conference in Nicosia on Tuesday.
“Many people have said [Zohr] has destroyed the market in
Egypt for any imported gas, but reports of the death of the market
in Egypt have been greatly exaggerated,” Kornegay said. “We believe
there are still good markets for both internal consumption and
exports, and we are working hard to come to [an] agreement.”
Italy’s Eni reported the discovery of the Zohr field with an
estimated gas resource of 30 Tcf at the end of August. Located
in Egypt’s deepwater Shorouk field, Zohr lies near Noble Energy’s
European Gas Daily
November 5, 2015
Aphrodite field in Cyprus’ block 12 and the Noble-operated Leviathan
field offshore Israel.
The size of the Zohr discovery makes it sufficient to meet all of
Egypt’s medium-term gas demands once it comes on stream in 2020.
Kornegay, who replaced John Tomich as country manager
this summer, said that Noble was collaborating with the Cypriot
government on the finalization of the development plan for Aphrodite
and was “moving as quickly as we can” to complete the process within
the next few months.
Tomich has since relocated to Egypt, where Noble has opened
an office.
Kornegay, who is also a vice-president at Noble, reminded
delegates that the Cypriot market was too small to warrant
development of Aphrodite on its own and that a foreign market
would be necessary.
Noble discovered Aphrodite in December 2011 and after an
appraisal well was drilled in October 2013, determined that it held 4.5
Tcf of gas. Cyprus has been holding talks with Egyptian officials since
early 2014 about the sale of Aphrodite gas to Egypt, where two LNG
facilities sit idle due to a lack of supply amid growing demand in the
domestic market.
Re-exports to Europe
Aphrodite gas would arrive in Cyprus as part of the development
plan, Kornegay said, but added: “The markets that are available
to us now are in Egypt and the gas will be transported via a
pipeline. Some of the markets in Egypt would be for export
again, which could mean that some Aphrodite gas could land
in Europe, but some could be consumed within the Egyptian
domestic market.”
Noble in 2014 signed letters of intent with the operators of the LNG
plants at Damietta and Idku for delivery of gas from Israel’s Tamar and
Leviathan fields, but regulatory uncertainty in Israel has brought a halt
to development work at both fields.
Without mentioning Noble’s involvement with Israel, Kornegay
told the conference delegates that the nature of investment in the
hydrocarbon industry required a degree of regulatory stability and
reliability during the course of any given project.
“Stability indicates several things,” he said. “One is that the
basic framework remains constant, but that there is flexibility to
deal with changes within the market place. It also means that the
regulatory environment needs to be able to act with a certain degree
of speed to capture moments both for the benefit of the country and
the industry in general.”
The delay in the development of the Aphrodite field has also
been attributed to the current round of UN-sponsored talks designed
to re-unite the Greek- and Turkish-Cypriot communities. Offshore
exploration by the Greek-Cypriot Republic of Cyprus in the East
Mediterranean has been a sore point with Turkey, whose troops have
occupied the northern half of the island since 1974.
With its crucial geographic location, Cyprus as a member of the
European Union could serve as an important interface between
Europe and other countries in the East Mediterranean, Kornegay
said, adding that collaborative efforts between the EU, Cyprus and
other states in the region could help in the success of projects that
require the movement of natural resources across international
borders. — Gary Lakes
Copyright © 2015 McGraw Hill Financial
10
PEG Nord spot down 15% on year in October
■■Spot contract averages Eur18.491/MWh
■■Healthy supply weighs on prices
■■Cold snap needed to boost prices
MONTHLY AVERAGES The average PEG Nord day-ahead price in October
was down 15.14% year on year at Eur18.491/MWh, while the TRS dayahead TRS day-ahead fell 25.61% to Eur18.606/MWh, resulting in a
spread between the two hubs of 11.5 euro cent, on average, in October.
LNG imports up 78% year on year to 649 million cu m, and lower exports
to Spain, down 50% year on year, and to Switzerland, down 57%, were
responsible for downward price movements, especially on the TRS hub.
An increase in net withdrawals, up 244 million cu m year on year,
was another bearish driver at both hubs.
At the same time, pipeline imports were down 1%, with more take
from Norway not fully offsetting a drop from Belgium.
Even the higher domestic gas demand failed to support wholesale
gas prices. Demand was up 37% year on year to 3.5 Bcm.
French supply/demand balance
(million standard cu m)Oct-15Oct-14
LNG imports
Total pipe imports
Belgium
Germany
Norway
Spain
Storage (withdrawals)
Total supply
Storage (injections)
Total end user demand
Industrial
LDZ
Power
Total export
Spain
Switzerland
Belgium
Total demand
649
3439
1433
483
1511
12
519
4607
707
3531
1117
2074
340
359
202
156
1
4597
% Change
366
3471
1655
475
1341
0
397
4233
829
2587
1089
1399
98
780
406
363
11
4195
78%
-1%
-13%
2%
13%
N/A
31%
9%
-15%
37%
3%
48%
245%
-54%
-50%
-57%
-88%
10%
Source: Platts analysis on Eclipse Energy data
PEG Nord and TRS October prices for front-month delivery were
down 21.57% and 31.23%, respectively, year on year to Eur18.423/MWh
and Eur18.672/MWh.
Only a cold snap could support the current weak spot and prompt
prices as fundamentals are bearish, with eight LNG cargoes expected to
arrive to the Montoir-de-Bretagne terminal in December. — Lucie Roux
FRENCH HUBS DAYAHEAD MONTHLY AVERAGE
27
(Eur/MWh)
TRS
PEG Nord
25
23
21
19
17
Oct-14
Source: Platts
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15