SECTORAL OUTLOOK 2013-2015
NOVA SCOTIA
Winter 2014
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................................. 3
LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................................... 3
LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................................... 3
ABOUT THE SECTORAL OUTLOOK ......................................................................................................... 4
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................. 5
NOTES ON METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................................................... 6
SECTION 1: ECONOMIC AND LABOUR MARKET OVERVIEW ............................................................... 7
SECTION 2: SECTORAL OUTLOOK 2013-2015 ...................................................................................... 15
CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................................ 26
ANNEX 1 ..................................................................................................................................................... 27
REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................ 29
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Acronyms
COPS………………….Canadian Occupational Projection System
EU…………………..….European Union
GDP……………………Gross Domestic Product
HST…………………….Harmonized Sales Tax
LFS………………….....Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada
NAICS…………………North American Industrial Classification System
NHS……………………National Household Survey, Statistics Canada
NL……………………...Newfoundland and Labrador
NS……………………...Nova Scotia
PEI……………………...Prince Edward Island
ROOC………………….Regional Occupational Outlooks in Canada
US………………………United States
List of Figures
Figure 1:
Figure 2:
Figure 3:
Figure 4:
Figure 5:
Figure 6:
Figure 7:
Figure 8:
Figure 9:
Figure 10:
Figure 11:
Figure 12:
Figure 13:
Comparison of Employment Growth, Atlantic and Canada. …………..9
Estimates of Interprovincial Migrants, Atlantic 2012-13.……………....10
Distribution of Employment Growth, NS 2013-1015……………….…..17
Health Care Employment, NS 2000-2015.………………………….…..19
Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services, NS 2000-2015…….....19
Mining, Oil & Gas Employment, NS 2000-2015.…………….…….…...20
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Employment, NS 2000-2015.………20
Accommodation & Food Employment, NS 2000-2015 …………….....21
Manufacturing Employment, NS 2000-2015 ………….………………..21
Other Services Employment, NS 2000-2015 ……………………….….22
Construction Employment, NS 2000-2015 ……………………………..22
Trade Employment, NS 2000-2015 ……………………………………..23
Public Administration Employment, NS 2000-2015 …….……….........23
List of Tables
Table 1:
Table 2:
Table 3:
Labour Market Indicators, Atlantic Canada 2010-2012……….……...11
Labour Market Indicators, Nova Scotia 2010-2012…………………..13
Nova Scotia Industrial Outlook …………………………………….…..18
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About the Sectoral Outlook
Each year, Service Canada issues three-year employment forecasts both by industry and by
occupation for Nova Scotia as a whole. The results of the analysis are published in the form of a
report intended to provide a comprehensive overview of recent labour market developments and
outlooks in Nova Scotia.
We hope this series of documents will interest people who are seeking labour market guidance
and those who help them, including parents, educational staff, and employment assistance
services workers. It should also interest businesses and employer associations that want to
identify human resources management issues in their industries.
This document is composed of two sections. The first part provides a synopsis of the labour
market in the region, including an overview of economic developments and key labour market
indicators. The second part presents sectoral outlooks by industrial groups catalogued
according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
Finally, we would like to acknowledge the LMI team located in National Headquarters who
provided the forecasting tool and ongoing support throughout this project and the Canadian
Occupational Projection System (COPS) team who provided us with access to many of the base
analysis for the forecasting tool used to carry out this study. We also wish to acknowledge the
contribution of provincial colleagues in the validation of the employment estimates
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Executive Summary
The Nova Scotia economy has been constrained over the most recent years and is expected to
remain so over the forecast period 2013-2015. One of the largest challenges to the province is
that of a slow growth in the population, which has decelerated significantly over the last decade.
This has resulted in an aging population in the province, a condition that has been exacerbated
by a recent large outflow of younger migrants from the province.
The labour market in the province has been challenged over the most recent years and is
expected to continue to perform weakly until 2015. Employment has been fairly stagnant over
the last several years and is expected to grow slowly over the forecast period. The labour force
in the province has not grown significantly since 2010 which, coupled with weak employment
growth, has resulted in relatively high levels of unemployment in the province. The
unemployment rate in 2012 was a noticeable increase from the recent low evident in 2008 and
is not expected to diminish significantly over the forecast period.
Nova Scotia has emerged as a predominately service sector economy in terms of employment
and is expected to continue to do so over the forecast period. Demographic change has helped
push Health services to the front in terms of current and future employment growth. A shift
towards technology and knowledge intensive industries will continue to increase employment in
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services. A rebound in offshore oil activity and mining
should lead to a modest increase in Mining and Oil and Gas in Nova Scotia. Employment
growth is also expected for Finance, Insurance and Real Estate and Accommodation and Food
Services as the economy slowly improves.
The economy and labour market is expected to get a significant boost from the shipyard work
that will be undertaken at the Irving Shipyard; however the production of the ships is not
expected will to begin until late 2015 and will be largely outside this forecast.
Employment is expected to contract for Construction in the province due to low levels of major
project activity and weakness in residential housing. The restrained economy is also anticipated
to be reflected in the deterioration of Trade employment in the province, and public budgetary
restraint will be reflected in a contraction in employment in Public Administration in the province.
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Notes on Methodology
The three-year employment outlook model produces medium-term industrial and occupational
employment projections at the provincial and sub-provincial level. The projection model is based
on an economic environmental analysis to establish a common and coherent analytic framework
as the basis for developing the detailed employment forecasts. Specifically, this framework is
based on the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) macro-economic scenario
supported by forecasts produced by the Conference Board of Canada. The labour market
scenario makes it possible to better characterize labour market conditions expected to prevail
during the review period.
Once the macro-economic scenario is established, employment by industry forecast estimates
are generated by the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) partnership and
supported by the Conference Board of Canada. These forecast estimates are then validated by
regional economists. The validation process is a two-step approach employing an analytical
validation using supplementary variables, as well as a consultative process with key partners
and stakeholders.
In the Atlantic region, three-year employment forecasts are produced based on the analysis
described above for the three-year period, from 2013 to 2015. The results are presented at a
broad aggregate level based on the two-digit North American Industry Classification System
(NAICS) to ensure better reliability of the estimates. Precise definitions of the industries are
available in the NAICS published by Statistics Canada. This level of aggregation is based on the
Labour Force Survey industry tables (16 industries) released by Statistics Canada for the
Atlantic Provinces each month. The only variation is the separation of the Mining and Oil and
Gas industry from Forestry, Fishing and Hunting due to its relative importance in the region.
Those industries with a positive or negative employment growth of 150 or greater over the
forecast period were considered to be showing significant growth and were analyzed in more
depth. The remaining sectors were deemed relatively stable or too small to discuss any
changes with adequate reliability.
The annual average growth rates in the tables are calculated using compound growth rates.
The growth rates specifically refer to changes from 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 with 2013 as the
base year.
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Section 1: Economic and Labour Market Overview
The first section sets the context for the employment projections by providing a synopsis of the
global economic situation, recent trends in the Canadian economy, and the economic and
labour market situation in Atlantic Canada as well as in Nova Scotia.
The Global Economic Environment
The global economy slowed for the second consecutive year in 2012 as weak growth among
developed countries, including the United States (US), continued to take its toll. Coming into
2013 there was general optimism that conditions would improve during the second half of the
year, but the upturn is now projected to occur later in 2014. In October 2013, the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2013 global economic expansion target to 2.9%, which
translates into a third straight year of slowing world growth.
The US is the world’s largest economy, responsible for over 18% of global GDP in 2012.
However, China could take over the top spot as early as 2016, according to the latest IMF
forecast. Not surprisingly, the two economies are closely linked, and China is feeling the effect
of slow growth in a number of its large export markets, including the US. In fact, China’s
expansion has slowed to about 7.5% per year. While this rate of growth seems enormous by
western standards, it represents China's worst performance in 23 years.
Keeping a steady pace of growth is a challenge for the US economy. Following two relatively
slow years, the economy expanded by 2.2% in 2012, and this was the highest rate among G7
countries. US growth slowed in the first half of 2013, and the IMF now anticipates 1.6% total
growth for the year. Yet there is widespread optimism that the US will drive much of the global
growth in 2014. According to the October 2013 US Economic Forecast, growth will begin to
accelerate in the middle of 2014 and will continue in 2015 and 2016. This positive outlook is
echoed by the IMF, which forecasts 2.6% GDP growth in the US in 2014
Meanwhile, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and other European Union (EU) member states
continue to struggle to get out of the recession. With GDP having receded by 0.4% in 2012, the
EU is expected to shrink an additional 0.4% in 2013 according to the IMF. The effects of the
sovereign debt crisis have varied throughout the EU, and the most troubled EU member states
continue to suffer through on-going austerity measures. However, business confidence
indicators (inflation, interest rates, foreign investment, etc.) suggest economic activity is close to
stabilizing for some EU members.
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The Canadian Environment
Canada’s economy outperformed those of most other developed nations in 2012, posting real
GDP growth of 1.8% over the year. While the country may have done well compared to other
developed countries, on its own merits, economic performance in 2012 has to be considered
mediocre. Long term, Canada needs GDP growth of between 2.0% and 2.5% in order for
Canadians to maintain their standard of living.
As with the world economy, Canada’s economic activity was widely expected to pick up during
the second half of 2013. The Bank of Canada has since lowered its outlook due to reduced
contributions from net exports and business investment. As of late October 2013, the Bank of
Canada called for the economy to grow by 1.6% in 2013, 2.3% in 2014, and 2.6% in 2015, with
commodity-rich Alberta, Saskatchewan, and NL playing lead roles in the country’s economic
growth.
The central bank had expected exports to show an increase in the third quarter of 2013, but
weakened global demand and fiscal challenges within the US market delayed this turnaround.
However, stronger US economic growth and a weaker Canadian dollar are expected to propel
export gains.
In response to slow economic growth and low inflation, the Bank of Canada is likely to hold
interest rates around 1% through 2015. This measure could potentially reignite the housing
market, increase borrowing, and accelerate growth, particularly in the critical export sector.
International trade makes up a large part of the Canadian economy, accounting for more than
45% of GDP. In 2012 the US, EU, and China were the top three destinations for Canadian
exports, together accounting for almost 90% of the value of all exports. The US, by far Canada’s
largest trading partner, is typically the destination for three-quarters of the value of Canadian
exported goods. In 2012 the EU received 8.5% of Canadian shipments and China about half
that. Between 2008 and 2012, China displaced Japan as Canada’s third largest export market.
Given the increasingly uncertain prospects for Canada’s largest trading partner, it seems
reasonable to expect modest export growth in 2013 and 2014. Although Canadian businesses
have generally welcomed the tentative Canada – EU trade deal, which was agreed to in 2013, it
will be at least two years before the deal is implemented and begins to impact export volumes.
Through the first eight months of 2013, Canada’s leading exports to:

the US were: energy products, including oil & gas and electrical power; motor vehicles and
parts; and wood, lumber, and pulp and paper products;
Page |9

the EU were: precious stones and metals, including gold and diamonds; aircraft and parts;
and crude and petroleum oils; and

China were: wood, lumber, and pulp and paper products; seed and food oils, grains, and
legumes; and iron and copper ores.
The Economy in Atlantic Canada
Since the 1950s, population growth has been slower in Atlantic Canada compared to the rest of
the country. According to Statistics Canada’s National Household Survey (NHS) results, in 2011
Atlantic Canada's population was 2,327,640, representing a 2% increase from the 2006
Census. Comparatively, the population of Canada grew at a faster rate of 6% during this period.
The gender composition of Atlantic Canada’s population was similar to the rest of country, as
males and females were fairly evenly distributed. Atlantic Canada has an older population than
the rest of the country with a median age ranging from 42.8 years in PEI to 44 years in NL,
compared to 40.6 years for all of Canada.
In the 1970s and 1980s, Atlantic
Canada’s labour force and employment
Figure 1: Comparison of Employment Growth
grew at a similar pace than the rest of
(%)
Canada
Atlantic
Canada. There was, however, a
2.5
2.0
significant divergence between national
1.8
2.0
1.6
and regional trends that emerged
1.4
1.5
during the recession of the 1990s.
1.0
1.0
1.0
Between 1998 and 2008, employment
0.6
0.6
growth outpaced labour force growth in
0.5
the Atlantic. As a result, unemployment
0.0
rates declined in the region, reaching
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
an all-time low of 9.1% in 2007,
narrowing the gap with Canada. During
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
this period, several large energy
projects occurred, including offshore oil & gas developments, acting as a catalyst for growth in
many sectors of the Atlantic economy.
Since the 2009 global recession, employment levels have declined for all major age groups in
the region, except for older workers (those aged 55 years and over). The employment share of
this age group has increased and has now surpassed the proportion of youth (15-24 years)
employed in the Atlantic region. Older workers (55 yrs.+) currently account for 21% of total
employment, the highest share on record. Youth (15-24 years) account for only 13%, the lowest
employment share for this age group since 1976. The prime working-age group (25-54 years)
account for 65% of total employment. The employment share of this age cohort has steadily
been in decline since reaching an all-time high of 76% in 1999.
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Figure 2: Estimates of Interprovincial Migrants
(July 2012 – June 2013)
In
30000
Out
Net
21542
20000
10000
14717
15665
9972
9097
11850
4220
3146
0
-10000
NL
-875
PE
-1074
NS
-5877
NB
-2867
As shown in Figure 2, as of June 30, 2013, net
interprovincial migration was negative in all
provinces in the Atlantic and was at a six-year
low. According to Statistics Canada annual
demographic estimates, about 38,812 people
left the Atlantic region for other parts of the
country between July 2012 and June 2013,
and only 27,926 people moved to the Atlantic
region from other provinces over the same
period.
Source: Statistics Canada, Annual Demographic Estimates
This resulted in a net outflow of 10,886 people from the Atlantic region over the past year. NS
experienced the largest interprovincial net outflow (-5,658) to other parts of the country,
accounting for about 52% of those who left the Atlantic region.
Ontario and Alberta remain the top provinces of destination for the vast majority of Atlantic
Canadians. Between 2000 and 2013, approximately 77% of people who migrated out of the
Atlantic chose these two provinces as their destination of choice. Data shows that an increasing
share of Atlantic Canadians, however, are choosing Manitoba and Saskatchewan as their
province of destination with an increase of 26% since 2011.
Youth aged 20-34 are the most likely group to migrate away from the Atlantic region. In 20122013, just over 5,500 youth left the region for other areas of the country. One of the main
incentives for interprovincial migration is for economic reasons as buoyant labour markets
increase an individual’s chances of gaining employment. Individuals with more education are, in
general, more likely to leave the Atlantic region for more prosperous provinces.
In Atlantic Canada, both the size of the labour force and employment levels increased from
2011 to 2012, but the labour force grew at a faster rate than employment. As a result, the
unemployment rate increased slightly to 10.3%. Nationally, the unemployment rate edged down
to 7.2% during the same period. The high unemployment rate in Atlantic Canada can largely be
explained by higher unemployment in the rural areas. In 2012, the unemployment rate in the
region’s urban core was 7.8% compared to 14.6% in rural areas. The high unemployment rate
in rural Atlantic Canada reflects the highly seasonal nature of the rural economies in the region,
which results in large seasonal variation in employment.
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Table 1: Atlantic Canada Labour Market Indicators, 2010 – 2012
2010
2011
2012
(000s)
2010-2011
Change
2011-2012
Change
Number
%
Number
%
Population 15+ (‘000)
1938.9
1946.5
1948.9
7.6
0.4
2.4
0.1
Labour Force (‘000)
1227.1
1225.0
1237.1
-2.1
-0.2
12.1
1.0
Employment (‘000)
1098.6
1102.2
1110.2
3.6
0.3
8.0
0.7
Full-time (‘000)
912.2
914.3
921.6
2.1
0.2
7.3
0.8
Part-time (‘000)
186.4
188.0
188.8
1.6
0.9
0.8
0.4
Unemployment (‘000)
128.5
122.8
127.0
-5.7
-4.4
4.2
3.4
Unemployment Rate
10.5
10.0
10.3
-0.4
-
0.2
-
Participation Rate
63.3
62.9
63.5
-0.4
-
0.5
-
Employment Rate
56.7
56.6
57.0
0.0
-
0.3
-
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
The service sector has continued to be the largest sector of employment in Atlantic Canada,
accounting for 79% of total employment. However, since the 2009 economic recession, job
growth in this sector has slowed to only 0.7% compared to an average of 1.0% between 2003
and 2008. The Trade industry, which is a very significant component of the service sector in
Atlantic Canada in terms of employment, has begun to recover from some of the job losses
recorded in 2012. There were also notable gains in Business Services, Health Care, and
Information and Cultural industries. However, the gains were not enough to completely offset
job losses in other industries including significant losses in Financial Services, Education, and
Other Services.
Jobs in the Goods-producing sector have been on the decline overall in the Atlantic region in
recent years. Employment declined by 3,600 (or 1.6%) in the Goods-producing sector in 2012
compared to the previous year. This was due to job losses in Manufacturing, Construction, and
resources industries (with the exception of the Mining, Oil & Gas sector). However, industrial
restructuring, especially in the rural areas, has led to the closure of several plants resulting in
notable job losses recently. This trend continues to dampen employment growth in
Manufacturing and other related primary industries.
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The Nova Scotia Economy
The Nova Scotia economy has been constrained over the most recent years and is expected to
remain so over the forecast period. Provincial real GDP grew only marginally in 2012 (0.2%)
and well below 1% in 2013 (0.8%). GDP growth is expected to accelerate to close to 2% in 2014
and strengthen into 2015.
Although exports have been challenged over the last years, there has been a general upswing
in export activity as the US economy improves. In particular, export activity has increased in
2013 for paper products with the reopening of the NewPage mill, and significant increases were
also recorded for forestry and building products, rubber and plastics, and farm and fish products
(NS DOF). The recovery in exports should be supported by a general weakening of the
Canadian dollar versus that of the United States over the forecast period.
On a domestic front, a significant challenge to the economy will be the continued weakness in
Construction in the province. In Nova Scotia, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing
starts was 2,520 in January 2014, which was a significant decline from 7,776 in January 2013.
The weakness is primarily in single unit residential construction and has been offset to a degree
by multiple unit housing starts which are concentrated in the Halifax Metropolitan area. A
brighter note is expected over the forecast period for investment in non-residential construction,
which is anticipated to rebound as major projects begin to commence in the province. APEC
anticipates an increase in major project investment of 12% in 2014, and this should remain
strong into 2015 as projects such as the shipbuilding activity at the Irving yard begin production
and offshore energy activity rebounds.
The general improvement in the provincial economy should manifest in an improvement in retail
sales in the province. Retail sales grew by roughly 1% in 2012, mostly supported by motor
vehicle sales. Retail sales are expected to strengthen considerably in 2013 as interest rates
remain low, inflation remains stable, and economic activity rebounds. Retail sales are expected
to remain in the vicinity of 2% growth in 2014 and 2015.
The drop in the exchange rate, an improving US economy, and resumption of the ferry service
to the US from Yarmouth should help to improve Tourism in the province over the 2013-2015
period. The Tourism industry in the province is significant – it is valued at $2 billion and
contributes $722 million to provincial gross domestic product, or about 2% of all provincial
economic activity. It has a direct employment impact of over 24,000 jobs, with many
concentrated in Accommodation and Food Services.
The labour market in Nova Scotia has been constrained over the last three years. Growth in the
working-age population has decelerated significantly over the last decade and has grown by just
over 1% last year, as compared to 5% at the beginning of the decade. The slowing population
P a g e | 13
growth is the result of a decreasing birth rate in the province and recently accelerated out
migration from the area. Initial estimates for 2012-13 indicate a record net flow of almost 5,600
from the province, most of whom are relatively young. This has resulted in a slowly growing and
rapidly aging source population in Nova Scotia.
Table 2: Nova Scotia Labour Market Indicators, 2010 – 2012
2010
Population 15+ (‘000)
2011
(000s)
2010-2011
Change
2012
2011-2012
Change
Number
%
Number
%
777
779.1
780.3
2.1
0.3
1.2
0.2
Labour Force (‘000)
498.8
496.6
500.4
-2.2
-0.4
3.8
0.8
Employment (‘000)
452.5
452.8
455.5
0.3
0.1
2.7
0.6
Full-time (‘000)
365.7
367.3
366.3
1.6
0.4
-1.0
-0.3
Part-time (‘000)
86.8
85.5
89.3
-1.3
-1.5
3.8
4.4
Unemployment (‘000)
46.3
43.8
44.9
-2.5
-5.4
1.1
2.5
Unemployment Rate
9.3
8.8
9
-0.5
-
0.2
Participation Rate
64.2
63.7
64.1
-0.5
-
0.4
Employment Rate
58.2
58.1
58.4
-0.1
0.3
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
Mirroring the slowdown in the population growth, the labour force in Nova Scotia has not
changed significantly in the last three years. The change in the labour force has been well under
1% over this period, a noticeable slowdown since the beginning of the decade.
The labour force participation rate in the province has remained relatively flat since the middle of
the last decade, hovering around 64%. This is noticeably below the national average of roughly
67% over the same period. The lower participation rate reflects a number of factors, including
an older population who tend to have lower levels of labour force participation.
Employment in the province has been similarly stagnant since 2008. There has been no
significant growth in employment during this period, with employment in 2012 being only 1%
greater than four years ago. Interestingly, the employment increase, while marginal, was entirely
in part-time work. Full-time employment actually fell over the same period.
P a g e | 14
One aspect of employment that is worth mentioning is the rise in the number of older workers in
the province. Since at least the middle of this decade, most of the employment growth in the
Nova Scotia labour market has been in older workers aged 55 years and over. In 2012 alone,
employment increased for older workers (55yrs+) by 7,500 while employment decreased by
over 4,500 for the younger age groups.
With a stagnant labour market and weak employment levels, the number of unemployed in the
province has not declined but has actually grown since bottoming out in the middle of the
decade. This was mirrored with a steady increase in the unemployment rate over the last four
years, rising from 7.7% in 2008 to 9.0% in 2012.
P a g e | 15
Section 2: Sectoral Outlook 2013-2015
This section provides an overview of the industrial structure in Nova Scotia, followed by a
synopsis of expected changes in the industrial base over the forecast period. The latter part of
Section 2 provides more detailed analysis of industries projected to grow, industries projected to
decline, and industries perceived to remain relatively stable over the next three years.
Industrial Structure
Nova Scotia has traditionally been a producer of primary products, particularly the exportation of
fish, and forestry-related products. However, the provincial economy and labour market have
continued to undergo a profound transformation, as services increasingly emerge as the
predominant source of employment in Nova Scotia. Supporting this new trend is a heavy
reliance on employment in the public sector in the province, particularly in Halifax. For example,
the proportion of Federal government employment in the province is a full percentage point
higher than the national average. This data does not include the relatively large presence of the
military which is centred in the Halifax Metropolitan area.
Service employment now accounts for over 80% of employment in the province, which is above
the national average of 78%. This share has increased noticeably in 20 years. In 1992 the share
of services in provincial employment was roughly three quarters.
In terms of specific service sectors, perhaps the most fundamental impact on increased demand
for services has been brought forth by an aging population in the province. In particular, the
demand for Health services has increased dramatically in the province. As a reflection of this,
Health employment has increased from 12% to 15% of provincial employment in two decades,
and accounted for almost one-third of the employment increase over the 20-year period.
Growth in other service-related sectors is also worthy of noting in the province. As part of a
collaborative development strategy, an industry emerged that centred on the provision of
information services through contact (call) centers in the province. Employment in Business
Services, of which contact centres are an important part, grew rapidly in the province from
minimal levels to over 15,000 employees in the past decade. Although this industry has
contracted in recent years due to the high dollar and international competition, it still remains a
significant part of the service economy in the province.
Another aspect of the continued growth of employment in the Services-producing sector is the
expansion of knowledge intensive industries in the province, particularly those found in
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services. Growth has been relatively strong for
Computer-related services and Scientific and Technical services (i.e. biotech). Growing jobs in
these sectors is a provincial priority in an effort to support emerging high technology industries.
P a g e | 16
Employment in the Goods-producing sector, however, has weakened over time in the province,
particularly for the Primary industries and for Manufacturing. Employment in the Forestry
industry has continued to decline in the province driven by a number of factors – slowing
demand for primary outputs (lumber and pulp) as well as increased mechanization in
harvesting. Employment in Fishing in the province has also fallen over time, given supply
constraints for groundfish and weak markets for the key lobster industry. Mining has struggled
as well in the province with the closure of a large coal mine in Cape Breton and a variety of
smaller mines that produced Gypsum and other products (i.e. salt and zinc). On the brighter
side, the decline in the fisheries is being countered by a growing Aquaculture industry in the
province, and biomass energy is emerging as a market for forestry inputs. As well, there are
positive developments in offshore oil and gas that may help bring about recovery in the overall
Mining industry in the province.
Perhaps the most significant development in the Goods-producing sector in the province has
been the decline in Manufacturing in the region. While Manufacturing accounted for 11% of
employment two decades ago, currently it has fallen to below 7%. The decline has been
concentrated in manufacturing of primary goods. Manufacturing of Food and Beverage
products (particularly fish products) has declined significantly over time in the province, due to
supply constraints and international competition. Employment in Forestry products
manufacturing, particularly pulp and paper processing, has significantly been reduced over the
last decade, while many sawmills in the province have closed due to slowing demand for lumber
products. This past year also saw the end of oil and gas refining in the province, with the closure
of the Imperial Oil refinery.
Although Manufacturing remains challenged in the province, there are positive developments.
The Irving Shipyard contract should give a significant boost to the shipbuilding industry in the
province starting in 2016, and it is expected that this activity will spill over into other industrial
sectors in the province such as in metal fabrication. There are also a variety of smaller
manufacturers of innovative products emerging in the province (i.e. LED lighting systems) that
should help support Manufacturing employment over the forecast period.
Finally, a key Goods-producing sector that has also been challenged over the recent past and is
expected to continue in decline over the forecast period is Construction. Construction accounts
for over 7% of employment in the province and peaked in 2010. Since that period, a weakening
of major project activity in the province, a decline in housing starts, and sagging levels of
public/institutional investment have dampened prospects for the industry. In the longer term,
general economic improvement, increased commercial and higher density residential
development (particularly in the Halifax Area), and accommodating the longer term needs of an
aging population (senior friendly housing) should help strengthen the outlook for the industry.
P a g e | 17
Overview of Employment Outlook
The scenario used to produce the 2013-2015 sector outlooks for Nova Scotia was developed in
the third quarter of 2013. The discussion that follows focuses on those specific sectors where
significant trends and events of note are projected.
Figure 3
Distribution
of
Employment Growth
The Nova Scotia economy faces a number of
Nova
Scotia
2013-2015
competitive pressures and is expected to grow slowly
from 2013 to 2015. Employment in the province is
expected to be relatively stagnant over the forecast
period, growing by less than 1% comparing 2015
with 2013. This has roughly been a steady rate that
the province has experienced over the last three
years (2010-2012).
Other
Health
19%
Food/
Accom
35%
Nova Scotia continues to evolve as a service
10%
economy as opposed to a producer of goods.
Reflecting this, employment will increase primarily in
10%
service-related industries over the forecast period,
Fin, Ins,
16%
Real
10%
accounting for almost 80% of additional employment
Estate
in the province. The greatest increase in employment
Prof, Sci &
in the service sector will be in Health services, driven
Tech
Mining, Oil/Gas
primarily by the needs of an aging population. A
much smaller, but still significant, increase is
expected for employment in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, reflecting
increasing prevalence of knowledge intensive firms in the province. A more positive outlook is
anticipated for Mining services, given a significant increase in offshore exploration activity and
the potential for other mining ventures in the province. Finance, Insurance and Real Estate and
Accommodation and Food Services are also expected to contribute to employment growth in
the province from 2013-2015.
The provincial economy is also expected to receive a significant boost from the shipbuilding
activity that will be undertaken in the Irving Shipyard in Halifax. However, production of the ships
is not expected to begin until late 2015 and is on the outer edge of this forecast. The industrial
employment outlook for shipbuilding will change significantly in our next forecast which will
encompass 2016, an anticipated year of full production at the shipyard.
There will be challenges for significant industries in the province over the forecast period.
Employment in Construction is expected to soften due to a slowdown in residential construction
and limited major project activity. Employment in Trade is also expected to weaken given high
levels of consumer debt, restrained economic activity, and restructuring within the retail trade
sector. Employment in Public Administration is anticipated to decline from 2013-2105, due to
continued government budgetary restraints.
P a g e | 18
Table 3: Nova Scotia Industrial Outlook
2012
Total, All Industries
Share of
Employment
Annual
Average
Growth Rate
2010-2012
Annual
Average
Growth Rate
2013-2015
455500
100
0.3
0.3
85163
18.7
-0.9
0.1
Agriculture
5997
1.3
1.7
-0.8
Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
6997
1.5
-13.3
0.9
Mining and Oil and Gas
4398
1.0
27.6
4.4
Utilities
4198
0.9
0.0
0.9
Construction
31186
6.8
-1.4
-1.0
Manufacturing
32386
7.1
-0.5
0.4
370337
81.3
0.6
0.4
Trade
71569
15.7
-3.2
-0.2
Transportation and Warehousing
20191
4.4
4.5
0.0
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate and
Leasing
23890
5.2
-1.1
0.8
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
25489
5.6
3.9
1.3
Management and Administrative Services
20291
4.5
-7.3
0.3
Educational Services
38683
8.5
7.5
-0.1
Health Care and Social Assistance
69370
15.2
0.5
1.0
Information, Cultural, Recreation
18592
4.1
-2.4
0.1
Food and Accommodation Services
31386
6.9
5.1
0.6
Other Services
21191
4.7
6.7
0.4
Public Administration
29687
6.5
-1.5
-0.3
Goods-producing
Services-producing
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey; Employment and Social Development Canada, ROOCS
P a g e | 19
Industries Projected to Grow
The following industries are expected to show some substantial growth from 2013 to 2015. For
this analysis, substantial growth is defined as an increase of at least 150 in employment levels.
Overall, seven industries are expected to show significant growth in Nova Scotia over the next
three years.
Health Care
Figure 4 - Health Care Employment
Nova Scotia 2000-2015
000's
70.1 70.8 71.5
60
Outlook
13-15
40
+1400
(1%)
13
12
11
10
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
2000
Employment increases in Health Care are
20
expected to be fairly broad within the
industry, with increases expected for
hospitals, nursing & residential care
Historical
Projection
facilities, as well as increases in Social
Assistance (including community support services such as food banks and elderly support
services.) Growth in Health services will continue to be restrained, however, by budgetary
restraint given constricted government budgets and reduced public spending levels.
15
80
14
Health Care will provide the greatest
boost to employment growth in the
province over the forecast period. The
growth is driven by increasing demand for
Health Care services by an aging
demographic in the province.
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
25.8 26.1 26.5
Outlook
13-15
15
+700
(1.3%)
Historical
Projection
Although growth in this industry grouping overall is not expected to be as robust as for the 20102012 period due to slow economic growth, the outlook is particularly positive for Computerrelated services. The Computer-related service component of this industry group is expected to
15
14
13
12
11
10
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
0
01
This sector is comprised of a wide range
of
knowledge
intensive
activities,
including Legal, Accounting, Architectural
and Engineering firms, Marketing and
Advertising,
and
Computer-related
services.
30
Figure 5 - Professional, Scientific & Technical
Services Employment
Nova
Scotia 2000-2015
000's
2000
Employment in Professional, Scientific
and Technical Services is expected to
add 700 jobs over the forecast period, the
second largest sectorial growth in the
province.
P a g e | 20
continue to strengthen over the forecast period, given the growing prevalence of technology.
Slower growth is expected to be evident for the Scientific Research services, given that much of
this activity is publically funded and subject to the current state of budgetary restraint.
Mining, Oil and Gas
15
14
13
12
11
10
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
2000
Employment in the Mining, Oil and Gas
Figure 6 - Mining, Oil & Gas Employment
Nova Scotia 2000-2015
industry in Nova Scotia is expected to
5
4.6 4.8
recover and to increase modestly over the
5 000's
forecast period. This sector, however, is
very small in terms of employment in the
Outlook
13-15
province. Employment growth in this
2.5
sector is expected to be supported by
+400
strength in offshore oil and gas production
(4.4%)
0
at the Sable and Deep Panuke fields. Oil
and gas development will get a significant
Historical
Projection
boost with Shell and British Petroleum Oil
committing over $2 billion dollars in
exploration activity in the region. There is also activity in other mining sectors in the province,
with the opening of the Dufferin and Touquoy gold mines. A recent survey of the Mining industry
in the province indicates that the outlook for Mining is positive with a rebound anticipated in key
sectors, such as Gypsum mining, as the US recovers and demand resumes for exports of
gypsum wallboard.
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate
000's
24.1 24.3 24.5
Outlook
13-15
+400
(0.8%)
15
12
11
10
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
2000
Employment is expected to slowly
15
strengthen in Finance, which include not
only the banking industry but also
investment and securities dealers and
0
credit financing firms. Continued strength
is expected as well in the Insurance
Historical
Projection
industry in the province, particularly in
Halifax which has traditionally been the regional centre for Atlantic Canada. On a more
restrained note, employment in Real Estate is not expected to grow significantly over the
forecast period, given an anticipated weakness in housing sales and starts in the province.
14
30
Figure 7 - Finance, Insurance and Real Estate
Employment
Nova Scotia 2000-2015
13
Employment in Finance, Insurance and
Real Estate is expected to grow slowly
over the forecast period, adding an
additional 400 jobs from 2013-2015.
P a g e | 21
Accommodation and Food Services
Figure 8 - Accommodation & Food Employment
Nova Scotia 2000-2015
Employment in Accommodation and Food
Services is expected to increase over the
forecast period; however, the growth rate is
expected to be significantly lower than for the
2010-2012 period. Weak levels of tourism,
heavy debt levels for domestic consumers,
and a slow economy have worked as serious
challenges to increasing employment in this
sector.
40
000's
31.6 31.8 32
20
Outlook
13-15
+400
2000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
0
Historical
Projection
Employment in this sector is concentrated in
food and beverage services (80 percent), with a smaller share being employed in hotels and
inns. It is expected that the sector generally will improve over the forecast period, with an
anticipated increase in tourism with the resumption of a ferry service between Yarmouth and the
US. Although a weak economy has been a challenge to domestic demand for services in this
sector, a gradual recovery in the provincial economy should help maintain consumer spending
and support employment in food and beverage services. On the accommodation front, a
number of new hotels have emerged, particularly in the Halifax area. The completion of the
Halifax Convention Centre by early 2016 should also build momentum in the industry in the
Halifax Regional Municipality and for the province in general.
Manufacturing
Figure 9 - Manufacturing Employment
Nova Scotia 2000-2015
000's
50
32.5 32.7 32.8
25
Outlook
13-15
+300
(0.4%)
0
14
13
12
11
10
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
2000
It is anticipated that over the forecast
period, employment in the traditional
Historical
Projection
sectors will not decline further and should
strengthen. As evidence of this, Nova
Scotia merchandise exports strengthened in 2013, with paper, shellfish, and lumber contributing
significantly to the improvement. In addition, it is expected that the key sector of rubber
manufacturing will remain strong in the province, as evident by strong markets for tire products
in the U.S. A positive but restrained outlook is also expected for emerging manufactures of a
variety of products that incorporate newer technologies (i.e. electronic goods). Impetus for a
recovery in manufacturing is also expected with shipbuilding work being undertaken at the Irving
Shipyard, with activity really ramping up by the end of the forecast period.
15
Employment in Manufacturing is expected
to recover slowly over the forecast period.
Manufacturing in the province has been
challenged heavily by weaknesses in the
traditional
primary
based
Goodsproducing sectors over the last decade,
particularly those based on forestry and
fishing products.
P a g e | 22
Other Services
Figure 10 - Other Services Employment
Nova Scotia 2000-2015
30
000's
21.3 21.4 21.5
15
Historical
15
13
12
11
10
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
0
14
Outlook
13-15
+200
(0.4%)
2000
Employment in Other Services is
expected to expand modestly from 2013
to 2015. This industrial sector is
comprised of a wide variety of industrial
activities, including Automotive Repair
and Maintenance, Personal and Laundry
services, and Religious and Civic
Organizations. In the province, the two
largest service groupings by far in this
category are Repair Services and
Personal Services. In both these sectors,
there is a relatively high level of
representation of self-employment.
Projection
It is expected that employment in Other Services will continue to slowly expand as the economy
improves. In particular, the demand for Personal Care Services (hair care and esthetic services)
funeral services, and laundry services should remain strong and growth should continue. There
is also some expansion projected in Other Personal Services, particularly pet care services,
although many who work in these sectors may be self-employed.
Industries Projected to Decline
The following industries are expected to show important decline from 2013 to 2015. For this
analysis, important decline is defined as a decrease of at least 150 in employment levels.
Overall, only three industries are expected to show important decline in Nova Scotia over the
next three years.
Figure 11 - Construction Employment
Nova Scotia 2000-2015
Construction
40
000's
30.9 30.6 30.3
15
14
13
12
11
10
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
2000
Employment in the Construction industry is
expected to continue to decline in the
20
Outlook
province over the forecast period. The poor
13-15
-600
outlook for Construction activity reflects fairly
(-1.0%)
weak levels of major project activity currently
0
in the province. Some recovery is expected in
2014, however, with the construction of the
Historical
Projection
Maritime Link, ongoing construction at the
Halifax Shipyard, and the possibility of the Liquefied Natural Gas terminal in the eastern part of
the province. The outlook is less optimistic for residential construction, with relatively weak
P a g e | 23
levels of housing starts expected in the province, particularly in single family dwellings. On the
commercial front, it is expected that the recovery from the current slump in non-residential
construction investment will be challenging and will be further impacted by continued weakness
in institutional and governmental investment in the province. There have been some positive
developments such as the construction of the Nova Convention Centre and other significant
projects in the province (i.e. Forest Lakes Golf Community), but many of these projects are
longer term in nature and are projected to have limited impact over the forecast period.
Trade
Figure 12 - Trade Employment
Nova Scotia 2000-2015
Public Administration
15
14
13
12
11
10
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
Figure 13 - Public Administration Employment
Nova Scotia 2000-2015
50
000's
29.6 29.5 29.4
25
Historical
Projection
15
14
12
11
10
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
0
13
Outlook
13-15
-200
(-0.3%)
2000
Employment in Public Administration is
expected to continue to decline between
2013 and 2015. Employment in this industry
group is heavily comprised of Federal public
service employees, where roughly half the
public sector is employed in the province.
Employment declines are anticipated as
governments at all levels contend with
relatively large budget deficits and try to
improve their fiscal positions.
01
2000
Employment in Trade is expected to decline
90 000's
marginally over the forecast period.
71.4 71.3 71.1
Employment in this industrial category is
60
comprised primarily of Retail Trade, which
Outlook
13-15
makes up well over 80% of employment.
-300
Although there have been several high
(-0.2%)
30
profile entrants into the provincial retail trade
environment, such as Target, this has
Historical
Projection
generally come at the expense of existing
retail operators. With a fairly weak economy,
and generally high levels of consumer debt, it is not expected that retail trade employment will
regain the record high employment levels experienced between 2006 and 2009. A boost to retail
sales was expected with an announced cut in the HST by one percentage point, but this
decrease is now on hold until the fiscal position of the provincial government improves. A further
factor which will challenge retail sales employment is an apparent move toward online shopping
by consumers, with several large retailers, such as Best Buy, re-profiling their operations to
focus increasingly on online sales and away from retail storefront operations.
P a g e | 24
Industries with No Significant Change
The industries listed in this section are considered to show no significant change over the
forecast period (2012-2015). The threshold used to determine little or no significant change was
a change of 150 in employment levels or lower over the three year period.
The following sectors are not expected to demonstrate any significant change in employment
over the forecast period. They include:








Agriculture;
Forestry and Logging;
Fishing;
Utilities;
Transportation and Warehousing;
Management and Administration Services;
Educational Services; and
Information, Culture, and Recreation.
P a g e | 25
Conclusion
In conclusion, the provincial economy has been restrained over the most recent years, but it is
expected to begin to improve over the 2013-2015 period. The improvement is anticipated to rest
heavily on a recovery in spending on major projects in the province, particularly the shipbuilding
contract, where work is expected to commence in late 2015. Other significant projects, such as
the Maritime Link and various large commercial/industrial projects, should also lead to an
improved economy over the forecast period.
Reflecting the rebound in the provincial economy, the labour market is expected to grow slowly
from 2013-2015 and generate a moderate amount of employment growth. Many of these job
opportunities will be in the Health Care industry, which will account for much of the expansion in
employment in the province. Job growth will also be evident for the Professional, Scientific &
Technical sector in the province, as well as for the Mining, Oil and Gas industry and to a lesser
degree Finance, Insurance & Real Estate and Accommodation and Food Services. On a less
positive note, employment is expected to continue to weaken in the Construction sector in the
province and to slowly decline for Trade over the forecast period.
Note: In preparing this document, the authors have taken care to provide clients with labour market
information that is timely and accurate at the time of publication. Since labour market conditions are
dynamic, some of the information presented here may have changed since this document was
published. Users are encouraged to also refer to other sources for additional information on the local
economy and labour market. Information contained in this document does not necessarily reflect official
policies of Employment and Social Development Canada.
For further information, please contact Randy Jewers (randy.jewers@servicecanada.gc.ca) or the LMI
team at: lmi-imt@jobbank.gc.ca
For information on Statistics Canada products, please visit the Statistics Canada Web site at:
www.statcan.gc.ca
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada as represented by Employment and Social Development
Canada, 2014, all rights reserved
P a g e | 26
ANNEX 1
Three-year Employment Forecast
The three-year employment forecast has been designed to produce projections of employment
by industry and by occupation for a three-year period.
The model used to develop the employment projections has four components:
1) Analysis of the Macroeconomic Environment
1.1 A number of macro-economic indicators are developed by the Conference Board of
Canada and validated by the national and regional economists – GDP, Household
Income, Consumer Price Index, Labour Market Indicators, etc.
1.2 Forecasts for labour market indicators are developed, based on provincial
demographic projections and expected job growth. The labour market indicators include
the employment rate by age, the labour force participation rate, and the unemployment
rate.
2) Industrial Analysis
The industry employment estimates are generated by establishing an initial estimate of
employment by industry for the province. The model uses the COPS 33 industry forecast
and disaggregates into more detail for provinces where the data is large enough.
2.1 This first step creates an initial estimate of employment by industry over three years.
In order to do this, these tools are used:
i) Data from the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
ii) Information about the current and expected future economic environment, both
national and global, produced by organizations such as the Conference Board of
Canada, the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council, and by financial institutions.
3) Occupational Analysis
This step creates estimates of employment by occupation, using the list of 520 occupational
categories from the National Occupational Classification system (2006 version).
This step examines:
3.1 Expansion demand, i.e. growth/shrinkage in demand for workers due to
growth/shrinkage in the economy and industry.
Forecasts of employment by industry are converted into employment by occupation,
based on the estimated relative shares of each occupation in the overall employment of
an industry. The relative shares are estimated using Census numbers. Since these are
only updated every five years, current information from the Labour Force Survey are
also used, and econometric equations estimate the effect of changes in occupational
shares over time.
P a g e | 27
3.2 Replacement demand. This examines the demand for workers by occupation that
comes from the need to replace workers who exit the labour market for reasons such as
retirement and death.
3.3 Labour availability of experienced unemployed workers.
4) 4) Outlook Rankings
Each occupation is given a ranking as to whether demand for workers in that occupation
over the next three years is expected to be Good, Fair or Limited.
These overall rankings are determined by looking at four indicators:
i) Unemployment rate: Employment Insurance recipients / average employment in the
past three years
ii) Attrition rate: Total attrition during the forecasting period / average employment during
the forecasting period
iii) Employment Growth Rate: Average annual employment growth rate during the
forecasting period
iv) Net needs rate, which is Growth plus Attrition minus Unemployed Workers at the
beginning of the period
These quantitative results are reviewed and validated at the regional level using the
review of other indicators and consultations with other local stakeholders.
PRODUCTS:
The Labour Market and Strategic Analysis Directorate in the Atlantic provinces use the threeyear employment outlook projection system to develop the following products:
1) A three-year Sectoral Outlook report, by province
2) A three-year Occupational Outlook report, by province
3) Provincial Employment Potential Calls (EPCs) by occupation for the Job Bank website:
http://www.jobbank.gc.ca/
4) Provincial EPC trends by occupation for the Job Bank website:
http://www.jobbank.gc.ca/
P a g e | 28
References
1. APEC Major Projects Inventory (Spring 2013)
2. APEC Atlantic Report (Fall 2013)
3. The Conference Board of Canada - Provincial Outlook (Autumn 2013)
4. Bank of Canada - Monetary Policy Report (October 2013)
5. RBC Economics – Provincial Outlook (December 2013)
6. TD Economics – Provincial Economic Forecast (January 2014)
7. BMO Capital Markets – Provincial Update (December 2013)
8. Nova Scotia Department of Finance: Current Economic Environment - Dec 19, 2013
9. Nova Scotia Department of Finance: Daily Stats releases, received by email.
10. Globe and Mail: News articles and Report on Business
11. Chronicle Herald: News articles
12. Canada Broadcasting Corporation: Online News articles
13. Nova Scotia Tourism Agency: Nova Scotia Tourism Facts
14. CMHC: Housing Market Outlook, Halifax and Atlantic, Fall 2013
15. Service Canada: Sectoral Outlook 2013-2015, Quebec Region.
16. Buildforce Canada: Construction Looking Forward Report