Nov/Dec 2015 Announcements In This Issue MTEP15/16 2 Competitive Transmission 3 Federal Environmental Policy Impact 4 Independent Load Forecast 5 MISO Board of Directors Approves $2.7 billion in New Transmission Projects on 12/10/2015. MISO to issue the Duff-Coleman 345 kV Competitive Transmission Project Request for Proposal no later than January 8, 2016 DR, EE, DG Forecast 6 MISO’s Clean Power Plan (CPP) Final Rule Analysis Initial Near Interregional Coordination 7 Term Results posted. MISO-SPP Planning Study 9 DRAFT CPP final rule analysis study scope of work posted Seasonal Transmission Assessments 10 2016-2025 Independent Load Forecast Report posted Resource Interconnection Planning 11 2016-2025 Independent Load Forecast Summary results posted Generation Retirement Planning 12 Links to Published Reports 14 Upcoming Transmission Planning . Stakeholder Forums – January 2016 Advisory Committee (AC) Friday, January 8, 2016 12:00 PM - 2:00 PM Eastern (11:00 AM - 1:00 PM Central) Reliability Subcommittee (RSC) Wednesday, January 13, 2016 9:00 AM - 12:00 PM Eastern (8:00 AM - 11:00 AM Central) Interconnection Process Task Force Thursday, January 14, 2016 10:00 AM – 4:00 PM Eastern (9:00 AM - 3:00 PM Central) Planning Advisory Committee (PAC) Wednesday, January 20, 2016 9:30 AM - 4:30 PM Eastern (8:30 AM - 3:30 PM Central) Economic Planning Users Group (EPUG) Thursday, January 21, 2016 10:00 AM - 1:00 PM Eastern (9:00 AM - 12:00 PM Central) Advisory Committee (AC) Wednesday, January 27, 2016 10:00 AM - 1:00 PM Eastern (9:00 AM - 12:00 PM Central) Spotlight: CPP Impact Study In December, MISO presented a first look at estimated CPP compliance costs at the PAC meeting in Carmel. The initial analysis focused on helping understand compliance options. Several assumptions were made about key variables expected to affect costs involved with cutting CO2 emissions from power plants. Natural gas prices showed to be the dominant on the CPP compliance costs. MISO presented an interactive spreadsheet that compares the effect on compliance costs with five types of variables. These variables are coal plant retirements, natural gas prices, carbon dioxide prices, renewable portfolio standards and energy efficiency levels. This spreadsheet can be found in the materials from the December PAC meeting. MISO intends to continue analyzing the compliance options to prepare for the transmission effects of compliance strategies. Results of these studies will be presented at the February PAC meeting. For additional information, visit www.misoenergy.org Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 1 Project: MTEP15/16 The MISO Transmission Expansion Plan (MTEP) is an annual effort to identify solutions to meet the transmission needs for the MISO region. MTEP seeks to ensure reliability, provide economic benefits, facilitate public policy objectives and address other goals. Each MTEP cycle is the culmination of more than 18 months of collaboration between MISO planning staff and stakeholders. The final report and its recommended transmission projects are submitted to the MISO Board of Directors for their consideration in December of each planning cycle. MTEP16 Start date: 6/1/15 Completion date: 12/31/16 Accomplishments The MISO board of directors approved the MISO Transmission Expansion Plan 2015 (MTEP15), which represents $2.7 billion in new transmission investment across the region on December 10, 2015 MTEP15 portfolio consists of 345 projects that will ensure reliability and position the region for future growth. For more details refer to the MTEP15 Final Report Conducted MTEP16 December Subregional Planning Meetings (SPM 1) Completed MTEP15 compliance reliability analyses and posted MTEP15 report Appendices on the MTEP SFTP Finalized BPM revision for Market Participant Funded Project review process Completed and posted MTEP16 Pass 1 power flow models for stakeholder review Provided preliminary contingency scan for the MTEP16 Pass 1 models to facilitate model review with TOs Completed CIP-014 third party independent risk assessment review Work In Progress MTEP16 model building MTEP17 Futures Recent Postings MTEP15 Final Report Stakeholder Action Items None at this time MISO Contacts Lynn Hecker – Reliability Analysis (North) e-mail: lhecker@misoenergy.org; phone: 651.632.8450 Thompson Adu - Reliability Analysis (Central) e-mail: tadu@misoenergy.org; phone: 317-249-4973 Jordan Bakke –Futures/Resource Expansion Forecasts e-mail: jbakke@misoenergy.org: phone: 651.632.8431 Edin Habibovic – Reliability Analysis (South) e-mail: ehabibovic@misoenergy.org; phone: 504.846.7115 David Duebner – System Modeling e-mail: dduebner@misoenergy.org; phone: 651.632.8497 Omar Hellalat – Scheduling and Report e-mail: ohellalat@misoenergy.org; phone: 317.249.5658 Arash Ghodsian – Economic Studies e-mail: aghodsian@misoenergy.org; phone: 651.632.8517 Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 2 Project: Competitive Transmission As part of MISO’s compliance with FERC Order 1000, the current right of first refusal provision (ROFR) will be eliminated for qualifying Market Efficiency Projects (MEP) and Multi-Value Projects (MVP). The purpose of this multi-year project is to design and implement the processes necessary to comply with the ROFR requirements. The phases of the project include: 1) pre-qualification of developers, 2) request for proposals to build a competitive transmission project, 3) developer selection, and 4) post award accountability (variance analysis). . Implementation Start date: 1/31/14 Completion date: Ongoing Accomplishments FERC Filings: o MISO asked for a 60-day effective date on “Dispute Resolution, Project Reporting, and Variance Analysis” on December 4, 2015 o Compliance Filing for ER15-2657 & ER15 –2658 in response to the Commission Order on November 13, 2015, and Tariff changes to the Competitive Developer Qualification and Selection process and the Pro Forma Selected Developers Agreement Work In Progress MISO to schedule and communicate a Kick off meeting in Eagan and monthly conference calls for Request for Proposal MISO to issue the Duff-Coleman 345 kV Competitive Transmission Project Request for Proposal no later than January 8, 2016 MISO to schedule workshop for Business Practice Manual 027 Review Recent Postings None at this time Stakeholder Action Items None at this time MISO Contacts Comments and questions may be sent to: Brian Pedersen Bpedersen@misoenergy.org For the MISO Competitive Transmission Process click the link below: https://www.misoenergy.org/Library/Repository/Study/Transmission%20Developer/TDQS%20Proc ess.pdf Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 3 Federal Environmental Policy Impacts MISO’s efforts to ensure reliability in the face of a transitioning electric generation fleet are partly being driven by fast-approaching EPA regulation compliance targets on power plant emissions and sustained low natural gas prices. Taken together, these efforts will help impacted parties determine the most appropriate compliance solutions and identify enhancements to MISO policies and business practices where necessary to ensure reliability. Start date: 10/1/11 Completion date: Ongoing Accomplishments Completed scope of work for MISO’s CPP final rule analysis th Presented initial results at the Planning Advisory Committee (PAC) on Dec. 16 2015 Work In Progress Continuing near-term analysis Preparing for mid-term analysis Recent Postings CPP final rule analysis study scope of work presentation CPP final rule analysis study scope of work MISO’s CPP Final Rule Analysis Initial Near Term Results Stakeholder Action Items None at this time MISO Contacts Jordan Bakke JBakke@misoenergy.org Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 4 Project: Independent Long-term Load Forecast The independent long term load forecast project will develop a 10 year forecast each of the next three years as part of an effort to improve the long-term transmission planning assumption framework. It is increasingly important to understand the potential changes in peak demand within our footprint as capacity tightens. This analysis helps MISO address questions around the assumptions used to develop peak demand forecasts Start date: 2/15/14 Completion date: 11/1/16 Accomplishments State Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG) 2016-2025 forecast complete and report posted Work In Progress 2017-2026 forecast work will begin in 2016 Recent Postings 2016-2025 Independent Load Forecast Report 2016-2025 Independent Load Forecast Summary Results Stakeholder Action Items None at this time MISO Contacts John Lawhorn – Project Sponsor e-mail: jlawhorn@misoenergy.org; phone: 651.632.8479 Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 5 Rao Konidena - Project Manager e-mail: Rkonidena@misoenergy.org: phone: 651.632.8401 Project: Demand Response (DR), Energy Efficiency (EE), Distributed Generation (DG) Forecasts This project will provide a 20 year forecast of existing, planned and potential DR, EE, and DG resources, as well as costs, in order to be able to model DR/EE/DG in MTEP Futures. The results of this analysis will be incorporated into the MTEP futures development process. Start date: 11/12/14 Completion date: 12/2015 Accomplishments Applied Energy Group (AEG) and MISO finalizing additional DG case Work In Progress AEG is working on publishing draft report. Recent Postings None at this time Stakeholder Action Items None at this time MISO Contacts John Lawhorn – Project Sponsor e-mail: jlawhorn@misoenergy.org; phone: 651.632.8479 Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 6 Rao Konidena – Project Manager e-mail: rkonidena@misoenergy.org: phone: 651.632.8401 Interregional Coordination (Part 1 of 2) To further facilitate communication of transmission planning activities with MISO’s neighbors to stakeholders, MISO will provide summaries of each month’s activities by neighboring planning region. PJM Activities o Joint RTO Planning Committee (JRPC) o MISO and PJM submitted Order 1000 interregional compliance filing on July 31, 2015 Waiting for FERC ruling o Coordinating local targeted seam studies o Discussing next steps for process and metrics discussions at the IPSAC o Performing Annual Issues Review o Interregional Planning Stakeholder Advisory Committee (IPSAC) o Process and metrics review Jointly filed on 12/9 to eliminate of $20M interregional project cost threshold Other changes will continue discussion into 2016 o 2016 Activities Continue Process and Metrics Review Solicit input on Annual Issues Review Begin 2016 Quick Hit Study o MISO-PJM Joint and Common Market (JCM) o Next meeting is scheduled for February o Last meeting held on November 18 link to meeting materials Cross Border Planning Update Capacity Deliverability Pseudo Ties Interface Pricing Day Ahead M2M Coordination Freeze Date MISO Contact Adam Solomon: asolomon@misoenergy.org Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 7 SPP Activities o Joint Planning Committee (JPC) o MISO and SPP agreed to and filed updated JOA language on August 18, 2015 to address FERC’s directives from the February 19, 2015 ruling o Coordinating an early 2016 IPSAC meeting o Finalizing the MISO-SPP CSP study report o Interregional Planning Stakeholder Advisory Committee (IPSAC) Upcoming meeting will occur in February 2016 o MISO-SPP Joint Operating Agreement discussions Last meeting held on August 13, 2015 (link to meeting materials) Targeting February 2016 for next meeting Update on Market to Market Interface Pricing Methodology Congestion Management Practices Work In Progress o Finalizing MISO-SPP CSP study report Stakeholder Action Items o None at this time MISO Contact David Lopez: dlopez@misoenergy.org Interregional Coordination (Part 2 of 2) MAPP Activities On September 30, 2015, FERC declared MISO’s May 1, 2015 MAPP Order 1000 compliance filing moot due to North Western’s integration into SPP. Future updates on the MAPP area will be included within the SPP seam Stakeholder Action Items None at this time MISO Contact Adam Solomon: asolomon@misoenergy.org SERTP Activities MISO received a November 25, 2015 Order (http://elibrary.FERC.gov/idmws/file_list.asp?accessi on_num=20151125-3038) from FERC regarding MISO-SERTP Interregional Coordination. Four directives came from that Order. The first was to delete the Interregional Project language MISO submitted as changes to Attachment FF on June 22, 2015. The second was to change Section X of Attachment FF to allow for MTEP approved project to eligible for displacement. FERC denied MISO’s rehearing request on Paragraph 187 of the January 23rd Order, which was related to what project could be displaced. The third directive was to remove the interregional transmission project cost allocation language. Lastly, FERC wanted MISO to clean up some inconsistent references MISO was given 30 days (12/25/2015) to comply with the Order and will not be asking for an extension to comply with that date. However, MISO and the MISO Transmission Owners do plan on requesting rehearing on directives one and three MISO and the Southeastern Regional Planning (SERTP) Region have signed all NDA/CEII documents and access to data has been granted on both sides There have also been discussions around NonDisclosure and Critical Infrastructure processes. MISO and SERTP would like to create a multi-RTO CEII NDA In early 2016, MISO and SERTP will meet to review each other’s regional transmission plans Stakeholder Action Items None at this time MISO Contact David Lopez: dlopez@misoenergy.org Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 8 Project: MISO-SPP Coordinated System Plan Study While enhancing interregional coordination, this joint study seeks to jointly evaluate seams issues and identify economic transmission solutions as well as perform a coordinated reliability assessment, consistent with MISO and SPP regional transmission planning processes. Projects identified in respective regional planning processes located near the seam will be evaluated to determine if interregional alternatives exist. Stakeholders from both regional transmission organizations will participate in the evaluation and review of identified interregional transmission solutions, in an open and transparent fashion. Start date: 2/1/14 Completion date: 01/31/2016 Accomplishment Staff has completed the joint portion of the coordinated study Three economically driven projects were recommended for regional review by the JPC MISO and SPP have completed their regional review of the three recommended projects. SPP Board of Directors approved the S Shreveport to Wallace Lake 138 kV project as an Interregional Project The CSP Study Report is available Recent Postings MISO-SPP Interregional Coordination web page MISO-SPP CSP Study Report Finalized Scope document MISO-SPP Joint Economic PROMOD model Economic Congestion Issues List and Solution Submittal Form Projects considered for recommendation Stakeholder Action Items Provide comments regarding the completion of the MISO-SPP CSP study Attend upcoming IPSAC meeting in early 2016 MISO Contact Eric Thoms ethoms@misoenergy.org SPP Contact InterregionalRelations@spp.org Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 9 MISO Coordinated Seasonal Transmission Assessment (CSA) These seasonal studies test the performance of MISO’s transmission system under anticipated operating horizon loading conditions. This assessment is produced in order to provide system operators with guidance about possible acute system conditions that would warrant close observation to ensure system reliability. Wrapping Up: 2015-16 Winter CSA Start Date: 6/1/2014 Completion: 12/16/2015 In Progress: 2016 Spring CSA Start Date: 11/6/2015 Anticipated Completion: 2/19/2016 Coming Up: 2016 Summer CSA Start Date: Feb/March 2016 Anticipated Completion: 6/1/2016 Accomplishments 2015-16 Winter: o All analyses done, wrapping up final report 2016 Spring: o Scoping meetings with Ops and Stakeholders completed, topology review of model completed Work In Progress 2015-16 Winter: o Finishing up the Final Report – to be posted by 12/18 2016 Spring: o Model review – SCED model to be posted by 12/18 Recent Postings Updated model and results for 2015-16 Winter CSA Section 3.3.3 MISO South to MISO North and Central Region FCITC and Section 3.3.8 MISO South to PJM Mid-Atlantic FCITC 2016 Summer topology only model Stakeholder Action Items 2016 Spring CSA – Review SCED model by COB Thursday, January 7th 2016 Summer CSA – Review topology only model and submit changes directly to Model on Demand (MOD) by COB Thursday, January 7th. If you’re an external entity, send an idev/Python directly to Katie Hulet MISO Contacts Katie Hulet khulet@misoenergy.org Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 10 Carlos Bandak cbandak@misoenergy.org Resource Interconnection Planning In order to connect to the transmission grid, generators submit Generation Interconnection (GI) requests to MISO. In order to obtain long term firm transmission service rights, customers submit Transmission Service Requests (TSR). To maintain system reliability, MISO conducts engineering studies to evaluate the requests and, if appropriate, grant service. Generation Interconnection Queue: Transmission Service Request Queue: Note: The regions are determined based on POINT_OF_RECEIPT. Generation Interconnection reports can be extracted from the Transmission Planning website MISO Contact: *Generation Interconnection Planning Group Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 11 Generation Retirement Planning MISO requires generators wanting to suspend operations or retire to notify MISO 26 weeks in advance (by submitting Attachment Y form in the MISO Tariff) so MISO can perform a series of studies to assess system reliability impacts. If MISO’s assessment reveals that generator suspension or retirement will not impact the transmission system reliability, the generator may suspend or retire as planned. If MISO’s assessment identifies reliability issues caused by the generator suspension or retirement, MISO may require a generator to remain online temporarily as a System Support Resource (SSR) until permanent reinforcement can be implemented. Generation Retirement/Suspension (Attachment Y) Notices: New Suspension Capacity No of Notices No. of Notices 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 10 8 6 4 2 Nov-15 Oct-15 Sep-15 Aug-15 Jul-15 Jun-15 May-15 Apr-15 Mar-15 Feb-15 Jan-15 Dec-14 Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Dec-13 0 Generation Capacity (MW) Retirement Capacity 12 Month-Year Generator Suspension/Retirement (Attachment Y) Notices: Resolved No of Notices 10 3000 2500 8 2000 6 1500 4 1000 Month-Year Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 12 Nov-15 Oct-15 Sep-15 Aug-15 Jul-15 Jun-15 May-15 Apr-15 Mar-15 Feb-15 Jan-15 Dec-14 Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 0 Feb-14 500 0 Jan-14 2 Generation Capacity (MW) Suspension Capacity 3500 Dec-13 No of Notices Retirement Capacity 12 2500 2318 Total Approved Retirement by Fuel Type (since 2005) 2000 7% Coal 2%1% Gas 18% Nuclear 1500 72% Oil Total Generation Capacity approved for Retirement = 9668 MW Diesel 1002 1000 390 356 155 Jun-16 Apr-16 Feb-16 May-16 5 0 Mar-16 0 Jan-16 0 Dec-15 0 Nov-15 0 80 Oct-15 0 Aug-15 Jun-15 May-15 20 Jul-15 175 Sep-15 203 Apr-15 50 Feb-15 0 Jan-15 250 Mar-15 363 Dec-14 50 Oct-14 0 Sep-14 0 0 Aug-14 228 Nov-14 500 Jul-14 Retired/Retiring Generation Capacity (MW) Approved Generation Retirements by Month Month-Year MISO SSR Agreements History Total 138 Attachment Y Notices Approved without a need for SSR Agreement Estimated End Date: 2019 White Pine 1 (20 MW) - MI Confirmed End Date: Dec 31, 2015 Edwards (103 MW) - IL Escanaba (25 MW) - MI White Pine 2 (20 MW) - MI Presque Isle (344 MW) - MI Straits (21 MW) - MI Gaylord (68 MW) - MI Coleman (443 MW) - KY SSR Agreement Terminated SSR Agreement Active Harbor Beach (103 MW) - MI Jan-12 MISO Contact Neil Shah NShah@misoenergy.org Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 13 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Transmission Planning Published Reports MISO Transmission Expansion Plan (MTEP) – 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005 Loss of Load Expectation Study Report – Planning Year 2015/16 PY 2014-15; PY 2013-14; PY 2012-13; PY 2011-12; PY 2010-11 Seasonal Assessments – Resource and Transmission (2011-2015) MTEP14 MVP Triennial Review – October 2014 Phase III: Natural Gas-Fired Electric Power Generation Infrastructure – Dec 2013 Manitoba Hydro Wind Synergy Study – September 2013 Northern Area Study – June 2013 Wind Capacity Credit Report – Planning Year: 2013/2014 2014/2015 Embedded Gas Units Infrastructure Analysis – July 2012 Supply Chain Study – May 2012 Top Congested Flowgate Study – May 2012 Gas and Electric Infrastructure Interdependency Analysis – March 2012 Multi Value Project Portfolio Results and Analyses MISO Energy Storage Study Phase 1 Report EPA Impact Analysis - Impacts from the EPA Regulations on MISO Regional Generation Outlet Study (RGOS) Joint Coordinated System Plan (JCSP) - Volume 1, Volume 2 Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 14