201511-12 Transmission Planning Status Report

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Nov/Dec 2015
Announcements
In This Issue

MTEP15/16
2
Competitive Transmission
3
Federal Environmental Policy Impact
4
Independent Load Forecast
5
MISO Board of Directors Approves $2.7 billion in New
Transmission Projects on 12/10/2015.

MISO to issue the Duff-Coleman 345 kV Competitive Transmission
Project Request for Proposal no later than January 8, 2016
DR, EE, DG Forecast
6
MISO’s Clean Power Plan (CPP) Final Rule Analysis Initial Near
Interregional Coordination
7
Term Results posted.
MISO-SPP Planning Study
9

DRAFT CPP final rule analysis study scope of work posted
Seasonal Transmission Assessments
10

2016-2025 Independent Load Forecast Report posted
Resource Interconnection Planning
11

2016-2025 Independent Load Forecast Summary results posted
Generation Retirement Planning
12
Links to Published Reports
14


Upcoming
Transmission Planning


.
Stakeholder Forums – January 2016

Advisory Committee (AC) Friday, January 8, 2016
12:00 PM - 2:00 PM Eastern (11:00 AM - 1:00 PM Central)
Reliability Subcommittee (RSC) Wednesday, January 13, 2016
9:00 AM - 12:00 PM Eastern (8:00 AM - 11:00 AM Central)
Interconnection Process Task Force Thursday, January 14, 2016
10:00 AM – 4:00 PM Eastern (9:00 AM - 3:00 PM Central)
Planning Advisory Committee (PAC) Wednesday, January 20, 2016
9:30 AM - 4:30 PM Eastern (8:30 AM - 3:30 PM Central)
Economic Planning Users Group (EPUG) Thursday, January 21, 2016
10:00 AM - 1:00 PM Eastern (9:00 AM - 12:00 PM Central)
Advisory Committee (AC) Wednesday, January 27, 2016
10:00 AM - 1:00 PM Eastern (9:00 AM - 12:00 PM Central)
Spotlight: CPP Impact
Study
In December, MISO presented a first look at
estimated CPP compliance costs at the PAC
meeting in Carmel. The initial analysis focused
on helping understand compliance options.
Several assumptions were made about key
variables expected to affect costs involved with
cutting CO2 emissions from power plants.
Natural gas prices showed to be the dominant
on the CPP compliance costs. MISO presented
an interactive spreadsheet that compares the
effect on compliance costs with five types of
variables. These variables are coal plant
retirements, natural gas prices, carbon dioxide
prices, renewable portfolio standards and
energy efficiency levels. This spreadsheet can
be found in the materials from the December
PAC meeting.
MISO intends to continue analyzing the
compliance options to prepare for the
transmission effects of compliance strategies.
Results of these studies will be presented at the
February PAC meeting.
For additional information, visit www.misoenergy.org
Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 1
Project: MTEP15/16
The MISO Transmission Expansion Plan (MTEP) is an annual effort to identify solutions to meet the transmission
needs for the MISO region. MTEP seeks to ensure reliability, provide economic benefits, facilitate public policy
objectives and address other goals. Each MTEP cycle is the culmination of more than 18 months of collaboration
between MISO planning staff and stakeholders. The final report and its recommended transmission projects are
submitted to the MISO Board of Directors for their consideration in December of each planning cycle.
MTEP16
Start date: 6/1/15
Completion date: 12/31/16
Accomplishments








The MISO board of directors approved the MISO Transmission Expansion Plan 2015 (MTEP15), which
represents $2.7 billion in new transmission investment across the region on December 10, 2015
MTEP15 portfolio consists of 345 projects that will ensure reliability and position the region for future
growth. For more details refer to the MTEP15 Final Report
Conducted MTEP16 December Subregional Planning Meetings (SPM 1)
Completed MTEP15 compliance reliability analyses and posted MTEP15 report Appendices on the
MTEP SFTP
Finalized BPM revision for Market Participant Funded Project review process
Completed and posted MTEP16 Pass 1 power flow models for stakeholder review
Provided preliminary contingency scan for the MTEP16 Pass 1 models to facilitate model review with
TOs
Completed CIP-014 third party independent risk assessment review
Work In Progress


MTEP16 model building
MTEP17 Futures
Recent Postings
 MTEP15 Final Report
Stakeholder Action Items
 None at this time
MISO Contacts
Lynn Hecker – Reliability Analysis (North)
e-mail: lhecker@misoenergy.org; phone: 651.632.8450
Thompson Adu - Reliability Analysis (Central)
e-mail: tadu@misoenergy.org; phone: 317-249-4973
Jordan Bakke –Futures/Resource Expansion Forecasts
e-mail: jbakke@misoenergy.org: phone: 651.632.8431
Edin Habibovic – Reliability Analysis (South)
e-mail: ehabibovic@misoenergy.org; phone: 504.846.7115
David Duebner – System Modeling
e-mail: dduebner@misoenergy.org; phone: 651.632.8497
Omar Hellalat – Scheduling and Report
e-mail: ohellalat@misoenergy.org; phone: 317.249.5658
Arash Ghodsian – Economic Studies
e-mail: aghodsian@misoenergy.org; phone: 651.632.8517
Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 2
Project: Competitive Transmission
As part of MISO’s compliance with FERC Order 1000, the current right of first refusal provision (ROFR) will
be eliminated for qualifying Market Efficiency Projects (MEP) and Multi-Value Projects (MVP). The purpose
of this multi-year project is to design and implement the processes necessary to comply with the ROFR
requirements. The phases of the project include: 1) pre-qualification of developers, 2) request for proposals
to build a competitive transmission project, 3) developer selection, and 4) post award accountability
(variance analysis).
.
Implementation
Start date: 1/31/14
Completion date: Ongoing
Accomplishments

FERC Filings:
o MISO asked for a 60-day effective date on “Dispute Resolution, Project Reporting, and
Variance Analysis” on December 4, 2015
o Compliance Filing for ER15-2657 & ER15 –2658 in response to the Commission Order on
November 13, 2015, and Tariff changes to the Competitive Developer Qualification and
Selection process and the Pro Forma Selected Developers Agreement
Work In Progress

MISO to schedule and communicate a Kick off meeting in Eagan and monthly conference calls for
Request for Proposal

MISO to issue the Duff-Coleman 345 kV Competitive Transmission Project Request for Proposal no
later than January 8, 2016

MISO to schedule workshop for Business Practice Manual 027 Review
Recent Postings

None at this time
Stakeholder Action Items

None at this time
MISO Contacts
Comments and questions may be sent to: Brian Pedersen Bpedersen@misoenergy.org
For the MISO Competitive Transmission Process click the link below:
https://www.misoenergy.org/Library/Repository/Study/Transmission%20Developer/TDQS%20Proc
ess.pdf
Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 3
Federal Environmental Policy Impacts
MISO’s efforts to ensure reliability in the face of a transitioning electric generation fleet are partly being
driven by fast-approaching EPA regulation compliance targets on power plant emissions and sustained
low natural gas prices. Taken together, these efforts will help impacted parties determine the most
appropriate compliance solutions and identify enhancements to MISO policies and business practices
where necessary to ensure reliability.
Start date: 10/1/11
Completion date: Ongoing
Accomplishments


Completed scope of work for MISO’s CPP final rule analysis
th
Presented initial results at the Planning Advisory Committee (PAC) on Dec. 16 2015
Work In Progress


Continuing near-term analysis
Preparing for mid-term analysis
Recent Postings



CPP final rule analysis study scope of work presentation
CPP final rule analysis study scope of work
MISO’s CPP Final Rule Analysis Initial Near Term Results
Stakeholder Action Items
 None at this time
MISO Contacts
Jordan Bakke JBakke@misoenergy.org
Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 4
Project: Independent Long-term Load Forecast
The independent long term load forecast project will develop a 10 year forecast each of the
next three years as part of an effort to improve the long-term transmission planning assumption
framework. It is increasingly important to understand the potential changes in peak demand
within our footprint as capacity tightens. This analysis helps MISO address questions around
the assumptions used to develop peak demand forecasts
Start date: 2/15/14
Completion date: 11/1/16
Accomplishments

State Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG) 2016-2025
forecast complete and report posted
Work In Progress

2017-2026 forecast work will begin in 2016
Recent Postings


2016-2025 Independent Load Forecast Report
2016-2025 Independent Load Forecast Summary
Results
Stakeholder Action Items
 None at this time
MISO Contacts
John Lawhorn – Project Sponsor
e-mail: jlawhorn@misoenergy.org; phone: 651.632.8479
Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 5
Rao Konidena - Project Manager
e-mail: Rkonidena@misoenergy.org: phone: 651.632.8401
Project: Demand Response (DR), Energy Efficiency (EE),
Distributed Generation (DG) Forecasts
This project will provide a 20 year forecast of existing, planned and potential DR, EE, and DG
resources, as well as costs, in order to be able to model DR/EE/DG in MTEP Futures. The results
of this analysis will be incorporated into the MTEP futures development process.
Start date: 11/12/14
Completion date: 12/2015
Accomplishments

Applied Energy Group (AEG) and MISO
finalizing additional DG case
Work In Progress

AEG is working on publishing draft report.

Recent Postings

None at this time
Stakeholder Action Items
 None at this time
MISO Contacts
John Lawhorn – Project Sponsor
e-mail: jlawhorn@misoenergy.org; phone: 651.632.8479
Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 6
Rao Konidena – Project Manager
e-mail: rkonidena@misoenergy.org: phone: 651.632.8401
Interregional Coordination
(Part 1 of 2)
To further facilitate communication of transmission planning activities with MISO’s neighbors to stakeholders,
MISO will provide summaries of each month’s activities by neighboring planning region.
PJM
Activities
o Joint RTO Planning Committee (JRPC)
o MISO and PJM submitted Order 1000
interregional compliance filing on July 31,
2015
 Waiting for FERC ruling
o Coordinating local targeted seam studies
o Discussing next steps for process and
metrics discussions at the IPSAC
o Performing Annual Issues Review
o Interregional Planning Stakeholder Advisory
Committee (IPSAC)
o Process and metrics review
 Jointly filed on 12/9 to eliminate of
$20M interregional project cost
threshold
 Other changes will continue
discussion into 2016
o 2016 Activities
 Continue Process and Metrics
Review
 Solicit input on Annual Issues
Review
 Begin 2016 Quick Hit Study
o MISO-PJM Joint and Common Market (JCM)
o Next meeting is scheduled for February
o Last meeting held on November 18
link to meeting materials
 Cross Border Planning Update
 Capacity Deliverability
 Pseudo Ties
 Interface Pricing
 Day Ahead M2M Coordination
 Freeze Date
MISO Contact
Adam Solomon: asolomon@misoenergy.org
Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 7
SPP
Activities
o Joint Planning Committee (JPC)
o MISO and SPP agreed to and filed updated
JOA language on August 18, 2015 to address
FERC’s directives from the February 19, 2015
ruling
o Coordinating an early 2016 IPSAC meeting
o Finalizing the MISO-SPP CSP study report
o
Interregional Planning Stakeholder Advisory
Committee (IPSAC)
 Upcoming meeting will occur in February 2016
o
MISO-SPP Joint Operating Agreement discussions
 Last meeting held on August 13, 2015 (link to
meeting materials)
 Targeting February 2016 for next meeting
 Update on Market to Market
 Interface Pricing Methodology
 Congestion Management Practices
Work In Progress
o
Finalizing MISO-SPP CSP study report
Stakeholder Action Items
o
None at this time
MISO Contact
David Lopez: dlopez@misoenergy.org
Interregional Coordination
(Part 2 of 2)
MAPP
Activities

On September 30, 2015, FERC declared MISO’s
May 1, 2015 MAPP Order 1000 compliance filing
moot due to North Western’s integration into SPP.
Future updates on the MAPP area will be included
within the SPP seam
Stakeholder Action Items

None at this time
MISO Contact
Adam Solomon: asolomon@misoenergy.org
SERTP
Activities
 MISO received a November 25, 2015 Order
(http://elibrary.FERC.gov/idmws/file_list.asp?accessi
on_num=20151125-3038) from FERC regarding
MISO-SERTP Interregional Coordination. Four
directives came from that Order. The first was to
delete the Interregional Project language MISO
submitted as changes to Attachment FF on June 22,
2015. The second was to change Section X of
Attachment FF to allow for MTEP approved project to
eligible for displacement. FERC denied MISO’s
rehearing request on Paragraph 187 of the January
23rd Order, which was related to what project could
be displaced. The third directive was to remove the
interregional transmission project cost allocation
language. Lastly, FERC wanted MISO to clean up
some inconsistent references
 MISO was given 30 days (12/25/2015) to comply with
the Order and will not be asking for an extension to
comply with that date. However, MISO and the MISO
Transmission Owners do plan on requesting
rehearing on directives one and three
 MISO and the Southeastern Regional Planning
(SERTP) Region have signed all NDA/CEII
documents and access to data has been granted on
both sides
 There have also been discussions around NonDisclosure and Critical Infrastructure processes.
MISO and SERTP would like to create a multi-RTO
CEII NDA
 In early 2016, MISO and SERTP will meet to review
each other’s regional transmission plans
Stakeholder Action Items
 None at this time
MISO Contact
David Lopez: dlopez@misoenergy.org
Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 8
Project: MISO-SPP Coordinated System Plan Study
While enhancing interregional coordination, this joint study seeks to jointly evaluate seams issues and identify
economic transmission solutions as well as perform a coordinated reliability assessment, consistent with MISO
and SPP regional transmission planning processes. Projects identified in respective regional planning
processes located near the seam will be evaluated to determine if interregional alternatives exist. Stakeholders
from both regional transmission organizations will participate in the evaluation and review of identified
interregional transmission solutions, in an open and transparent fashion.
Start date: 2/1/14
Completion date: 01/31/2016
Accomplishment




Staff has completed the joint portion of the coordinated study
Three economically driven projects were recommended for regional review by the JPC
MISO and SPP have completed their regional review of the three recommended projects. SPP Board
of Directors approved the S Shreveport to Wallace Lake 138 kV project as an Interregional Project
The CSP Study Report is available
Recent Postings






MISO-SPP Interregional Coordination web page
MISO-SPP CSP Study Report
Finalized Scope document
MISO-SPP Joint Economic PROMOD model
Economic Congestion Issues List and Solution Submittal Form
Projects considered for recommendation
Stakeholder Action Items


Provide comments regarding the completion of the MISO-SPP CSP study
Attend upcoming IPSAC meeting in early 2016
MISO Contact
Eric Thoms
ethoms@misoenergy.org
SPP Contact
InterregionalRelations@spp.org
Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 9
MISO Coordinated Seasonal Transmission Assessment (CSA)
These seasonal studies test the performance of MISO’s transmission system under anticipated operating
horizon loading conditions. This assessment is produced in order to provide system operators with guidance
about possible acute system conditions that would warrant close observation to ensure system reliability.
Wrapping Up: 2015-16 Winter CSA
Start Date: 6/1/2014
Completion: 12/16/2015
In Progress: 2016 Spring CSA
Start Date: 11/6/2015
Anticipated Completion: 2/19/2016
Coming Up: 2016 Summer CSA
Start Date: Feb/March 2016
Anticipated Completion: 6/1/2016
Accomplishments


2015-16 Winter:
o All analyses done, wrapping up final report
2016 Spring:
o Scoping meetings with Ops and Stakeholders completed, topology review of model
completed
Work In Progress


2015-16 Winter:
o Finishing up the Final Report – to be posted by 12/18
2016 Spring:
o Model review – SCED model to be posted by 12/18
Recent Postings


Updated model and results for 2015-16 Winter CSA Section 3.3.3 MISO South to MISO
North and Central Region FCITC and Section 3.3.8 MISO South to PJM Mid-Atlantic FCITC
2016 Summer topology only model
Stakeholder Action Items


2016 Spring CSA – Review SCED model by COB Thursday, January 7th
2016 Summer CSA – Review topology only model and submit changes directly to Model
on Demand (MOD) by COB Thursday, January 7th. If you’re an external entity, send an
idev/Python directly to Katie Hulet
MISO Contacts
Katie Hulet
khulet@misoenergy.org
Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 10
Carlos Bandak
cbandak@misoenergy.org
Resource Interconnection Planning
In order to connect to the transmission grid, generators submit Generation Interconnection (GI) requests to
MISO. In order to obtain long term firm transmission service rights, customers submit Transmission Service
Requests (TSR). To maintain system reliability, MISO conducts engineering studies to evaluate the requests
and, if appropriate, grant service.
Generation Interconnection Queue:
Transmission Service Request Queue:
Note: The regions are determined based on POINT_OF_RECEIPT.
Generation Interconnection reports can be extracted from the Transmission Planning website
MISO Contact: *Generation Interconnection Planning Group
Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 11
Generation Retirement Planning
MISO requires generators wanting to suspend operations or retire to notify MISO 26 weeks in advance (by
submitting Attachment Y form in the MISO Tariff) so MISO can perform a series of studies to assess system
reliability impacts. If MISO’s assessment reveals that generator suspension or retirement will not impact the
transmission system reliability, the generator may suspend or retire as planned. If MISO’s assessment identifies
reliability issues caused by the generator suspension or retirement, MISO may require a generator to remain
online temporarily as a System Support Resource (SSR) until permanent reinforcement can be implemented.
Generation Retirement/Suspension (Attachment Y) Notices: New
Suspension Capacity
No of Notices
No. of Notices
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
10
8
6
4
2
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
0
Generation Capacity (MW)
Retirement Capacity
12
Month-Year
Generator Suspension/Retirement (Attachment Y) Notices: Resolved
No of Notices
10
3000
2500
8
2000
6
1500
4
1000
Month-Year
Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 12
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
0
Feb-14
500
0
Jan-14
2
Generation Capacity (MW)
Suspension Capacity
3500
Dec-13
No of Notices
Retirement Capacity
12
2500
2318
Total Approved Retirement by Fuel Type
(since 2005)
2000
7%
Coal
2%1%
Gas
18%
Nuclear
1500
72%
Oil
Total Generation Capacity
approved for Retirement
= 9668 MW
Diesel
1002
1000
390
356
155
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
May-16
5
0
Mar-16
0
Jan-16
0
Dec-15
0
Nov-15
0
80
Oct-15
0
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
20
Jul-15
175
Sep-15
203
Apr-15
50
Feb-15
0
Jan-15
250
Mar-15
363
Dec-14
50
Oct-14
0
Sep-14
0
0
Aug-14
228
Nov-14
500
Jul-14
Retired/Retiring Generation Capacity (MW)
Approved Generation Retirements by Month
Month-Year
MISO SSR Agreements History
Total 138 Attachment Y Notices Approved without a need for SSR Agreement
Estimated End Date: 2019
White Pine 1 (20 MW) - MI
Confirmed End Date: Dec 31, 2015
Edwards (103 MW) - IL
Escanaba (25 MW) - MI
White Pine 2 (20 MW) - MI
Presque Isle (344 MW) - MI
Straits (21 MW) - MI
Gaylord (68 MW) - MI
Coleman (443 MW) - KY
SSR Agreement Terminated
SSR Agreement Active
Harbor Beach (103 MW) - MI
Jan-12
MISO Contact
Neil Shah NShah@misoenergy.org
Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 13
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Transmission Planning Published Reports
MISO Transmission Expansion Plan (MTEP) –
2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005
Loss of Load Expectation Study Report – Planning Year 2015/16
PY 2014-15; PY 2013-14; PY 2012-13; PY 2011-12; PY 2010-11
Seasonal Assessments – Resource and Transmission (2011-2015)
MTEP14 MVP Triennial Review – October 2014
Phase III: Natural Gas-Fired Electric Power Generation Infrastructure – Dec 2013
Manitoba Hydro Wind Synergy Study – September 2013
Northern Area Study – June 2013
Wind Capacity Credit Report – Planning Year: 2013/2014 2014/2015
Embedded Gas Units Infrastructure Analysis – July 2012
Supply Chain Study – May 2012
Top Congested Flowgate Study – May 2012
Gas and Electric Infrastructure Interdependency Analysis – March 2012
Multi Value Project Portfolio Results and Analyses
MISO Energy Storage Study Phase 1 Report
EPA Impact Analysis - Impacts from the EPA Regulations on MISO
Regional Generation Outlet Study (RGOS)
Joint Coordinated System Plan (JCSP) - Volume 1, Volume 2
Nov-Dec 2015 / Page 14
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