Spotting weak signals
considering new technological
innovations: An empirical
search for appropriate sources
Saku Mäkinen
Professor of technology management and vice-head of the Institute of Industrial
Management, Tampere University of Technology (TUT), Finland.
Heini M. Järvenpää
Researcher and a Ph.D. student at the Center for Innovation and Technology
Research (CITER) in Tampere University of Technology (TUT), Finland.
Turo Uskali
a visiting scholar at the Innovation Journalism Program at Stanford and a senior research
scholar at the department of communication at the University of Jyväskylä in Finland.
Jari Ojala
Ph.D. professor of history at University of Jyväskylä, Finland.
1
Updated May 11th 2007
1 INTRODUCTION………. ...................................................................... 3
2 THEORETICAL BACKGROUND…...................................................... 4
3 EMPIRICAL STUDY……….. ................................................................ 9
4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ........................................................... 10
5 CONCLUSIONS……………………………………………………………..12
REFERENCES
2
Spotting weak signals considering
new technological innovations:
An empirical search for
appropriate sources
Innovation journalism is interested in detecting “weak signals”, early
indicators of about coming events. This paper considers the problem of
searching sources for weak signals when new technological innovations are
popularized in the early phases of technological life cycle. This paper reports
results of a bibliometric study searching for indicators at the applied
research and application phases of technological innovation process. We
studied the occurrence of the DVD (digital video disc) in trade publications
and general press in the USA. Our results show that popularization of DVD
technology in general press follows closely with cumulative adoption figures.
However, the study shows that the trade publication sources can be used to
obtain early signals on the future of technological innovations.
1 Introduction
Innovation journalism is interested in detecting weak signals (Nordfors 2004;
Uskali 2005). This paper considers the problem of searching sources for weak
signals when new technological innovations are popularized in the early phases of
technological life cycle.
Traditionally, the search for weak signals has been expert evaluation with cognitive
combination of information from multiple sources. But, recent research has
suggested that there are predictable patterns in how new technologies and
innovations are popularized and how the writing about new technologies proceeds
after inventions have been made. For example, bibliometric measures can be used
in determining indicators for different technological innovation process phases
(Watts & Porter, 1997). They separated the technology life cycle indicators,
innovation context indicators, and product value chain indicators. The technology
life cycle indicators are widely recognized in current research (Daim, Rueda,
Martin, & Gerdsri, 2006; Martino, 2003).
This paper reports results of a bibliometric study searching for indicators at the
applied research/development and application/societal impact phases of
technological innovation process, following Watts and Porter (1997) division of
innovation process. We studied the occurrence of the DVD (digital video disc) in
trade publications and general press in the USA. The occurrences represent both
the technology and the media content, therefore, giving us a view on the whole
technology system and its representation of the popularization in the innovation
3
process. We used Lexis-Nexis for searching the sources between 1995 and 2006
and measured trends for both absolute and relative amounts of occurrences. In
addition, we compared the popularization of the innovation in the press to the
actual adoption of the technological innovation in the marketplace since its
inception.
Our results show that popularization of DVD technology in general press follows
closely with adoption figures growing steadily from the start. However, our study
also confirms that trade publication sources can be used to obtain early signals on
the future of technological innovations. In this paper we show the existence of
sharp rise of popularization and discussion on new technology before it is
commercialized and launched to the marketplace. This sharp increase in
occurrences also declines rapidly and in the early phases of the adoption dynamics.
The paper discusses further the crucial role of selecting the sources for monitoring
technological development and innovations. In addition we discuss the possibility
of detecting weak signals in technological area specific professional sources like
trade publications and how to identify possibly successful future innovations.
2 Theoretical Background
Today, there is a growing amount of literature analysing weak signals. After the
pioneering work done by Igor Ansoff in business economics, many other
disciplines have also become interested in using weak signals as a tool to
understand the future. Ansoff wrote his first article about weak signals in the
aftermath of oil crisis 1975. He predicted that “discontinuities and surprises will
occur with increasing frequency” (Ansoff 1975, 21). April 2007 already over
22 000 academic papers used the very same concept according to Google Scholar
(Search done 04.26.2007). Almost all possible disciplines from natural sciences to
social sciences and humanities were represented. However, analyse of weak signals
in journalistic texts has just only begun.
In general, “weak signals” are considered to be early indicators of, “symptoms” of,
or “a soft form of information” about coming events. (Ansoff 1975, Ansoff and
McDonnell 1990 [1984], Nikander 2002, 24). They are minor events that may have
major consequences. The main problem with weak signals is that they are easily
missed because they are uncertain and irrational. (Nikander 2002, 23–24). In fact,
weak signals can be best analysed only post factum, when we know what “really”
happened. As Mika Mannermaa (2004) has noted, “The real wisdom about the
weak signals can be acquired only afterwards.” Historical analysis can, therefore,
contribute a lot to an understanding of the role played by weak signals.
Weak signals are especially considered in the context of technology foresight in
this paper. Bibliometric measures can be used in determining indicators for and
therefore detecting different technological innovation process phases (Watts &
Porter, 1997). Therefore, we should be able to spot signals considering
technological advancements with bibliometric means since the technology life
4
cycle indicators can be observed in distinct sources (Daim, Rueda, Martin, &
Gerdsri, 2006; Martino, 2003). Earlier research has identified multiple, coherent,
repeatable patterns in technological evolution (e.g. Mahajan, Muller, & Bass, 1990;
Rogers, 2003).
Technological value is being created during the innovation process. This process is
not always visible to the end-users of the technology, but has high impact on how
the end-product turns out to be and how it proceeds in the marketplace The
innovation process is traditionally seen being linear and going through stages of
scientific research, development, production, and marketing. The process described
like this is true in some cases where there first is the invention itself, like a certain
drug or pharmaceutical compound. The other extreme way to see the innovation
process is to think of it as a single, market-driven, integrated process (Jolly, 1997).
These two approaches can be incorporated into one that sees the innovation process
as “a segmented process, where each segment requires an integrated approach to
come up with a valuable outcome” (Jolly, 1997). In this segmented view of
commercialization of technologies the leading thought is the need to sell the idea to
the stakeholders of the next subprocess. Subprocess here means the next process in
the process of bringing new technologies to market. Jolly’s incorporated view sees
that between the subprocesses there are commercial outcomes rather than research
milestones.
The stakeholders of each subprocess are the thing that interests us since the
stakeholders are important when considering the possible sources in the business
environment. Finding the sources that reach the target stakeholders at each phase of
the innovation and commercialization process is essential in order to discover
where to look for the weak signals at each stage of the process.
The stakeholders in each stage of the innovation process can be divided into supply
and demand side stakeholders. The supply side includes, for example, colleagues,
research partners, providers of venture capital, and suppliers of complimentary
technologies. The demand side stakeholders include, among others, customers,
end-users, and opinion leaders. The demand side and thus the adoption of the
technology/product/innovation is the thing that interests managers. Behind the
technology adoption is partly the technology itself and its characteristics. This
includes, among others, the usability and reliability of the technology. But the
technology itself is not the only thing that affects the speed of adoption. “Diffusion
is the process in which an innovation is communicated through certain channels
over time among the members of a social system.” (Rogers, 2003) Diffusion
describes how the adoption of the innovation increases over time as the
communication of the innovation changes.
The Bass diffusion model shows that potential adopters of an innovation are
influenced by two means of communication – mass media and word of mouth
(interpersonal channels) (Mahajan, Muller, & Bass, 1990). The model divides the
adopters of an innovation into ‘innovators’ and ‘imitators’ and that the external
influence is relatively more important to the innovators (early adopters), and the
internal influence to the imitators (later adopters). The need for different kind of
influence – internal or external, can be derived from the different characteristics of
5
the categorized adopter groups. Depending on when the person first starts to use
the idea or technology, the adopters are classified into five different categories: the
innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards (Rogers,
2003). These adopter groups and their relative amount are presented in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Adopter Categorization on the Basis of Innovativeness
(Adapted from Rogers, 2003)
The adopter groups’ names are descriptive but the characteristics of these groups
might need a bit more explaining. For the innovators, technology is a particular
interest in life and they cope with high level of uncertainty. The early adopters are
the opinion leaders and role models when adopting a new innovation. They find it
easy to imagine, understand and appreciate the benefits of the technology. The
early majority, on the other hand, is seldom the leader in adopting new ideas, but
follow with deliberate willingness. They need well-established references before
investing substantially. The late majority is the other big category of adopters.
They are skeptical and wait till something has become an established standard and
prefers to buy from large, well established companies. The laggards, the last group
to adopt the technology, are as they sound: they will not have anything to do with
the technology unless it is hidden so that it can not be perceived as technology.
(Moore, 1999; Rogers, 2003)
The different groups act and react differently to the newly introduced technology or
innovation. Thus, the different groups need to be approached differently in order to
make the adoption of the technology possible (Rogers, 2003). The meaning of
external influence is important at the beginning, especially to provide knowledge
about the innovation. And according to the innovation-decision model, knowledge
is necessary before any adoption can happen. Journalism are perceived as having
higher credibility than advertising and company sponsored announcements (Wind
& Mahajan, 1987). Thus, media coverage and support is important in spreading the
knowledge about the innovation to the future adopters. Pre-launch activities are one
way to get media coverage. The timing and ways of preannouncements differ but
overall, prelaunch activities target to create a favorable atmosphere for the product
launch which would then lead to more rapid adoption of the technology (Wind &
Mahajan, 1987). Media coverage and support is assessed critical in reducing the
perceived social, psychological, and economic risk (Wind & Mahajan, 1987). It
can also be argued that innovation journalists should be interested in the work of
innovators and early adopters in order to find new topics for their news stories.
6
Based on above discussion the business environment can be observed through
media. The external influence to the demand side, and the “selling the idea” to the
supply side can be both observed in proper media sources as journalism is seen to
be influential and credible source to communicate the idea. But the sources of
media where to observe the business environment are yet to be differentiated.
Journalism as a general term covers various sources and levels of information. The
sources that are used to communicate the varied information content change
according to purpose of the share of information. Different sources have different
target groups and thus reach different stakeholders of the technological
commercialization process.
Watts and Porter (1997) determined the indicators for different technological
innovation process concepts that they believe bibliometric measures can obtain.
These life-cycle indicators are presented as non-linear, and are widely recognized
(e.g. Daim, Rueda, Martin, & Gerdsri, 2006; e.g. Martino, 2003) in current
literature. The indicators are often recognized as handy to locate development
maturation. Table 1 shows these indicators.
Table 1
Technology Life Cycle Indicators (Watts & Porter, 1997)
Factor
Indicator
R&D Profile
Fundamental research
No. of items in databases such as Science Citation Index
Applied research
No. of items in databases such as Engineering Index
Development
No. of items in databases such as U.S. Patents
Application
No. of items in databases such as Newspapers Abstracts Daily
Societal impacts
Issues raised in the Business and Popular Press abstracts
Growth rate
Trends over time in number of items
Technological issues
Technological needs noted
Maturation
Types of topics receiving attention
Offshoots
Spin-off technologies linked
Martino continues by explaining how bibliometric methods can be used to
determine the technology’s position in its life cycle (Martino, 2003). Martino
changed the idea of the life cycle indicators being linear. Figure 2 shows how the
hits on relevant sources move from one stage to another forming an identifiable
pattern.
7
Figure 2. Bibliometrics estimate of stage of innovation (Martino,
2003)
In addition to recognizing the stage of the life cycle, the amount of activity the
technology generates in the source can be interpreted as an indicator of success.
Based on the models described, early high visibility is necessary in order to sell the
idea to the stakeholders in each stage. These life cycle indicators differentiate the
proper sources at each stage of the technology commercialization. In the early
stages of the technology development the stakeholders are mainly supply-side
stakeholders and later, as the development continues towards a ready product, the
stakeholders are formed mainly from the demand side.
The division of sources according to the life cycle indicators is justified also based
on the innovation diffusion model (Rogers, 2003). The professional press source is
selected to represent the visibility to the early markets that consists of innovators
and early adopters, and the general press is targeted more to the latter innovation
adopter groups, the mainstream markets. On the basis of Jolly’s idea of selling the
idea of technological innovation to the stakeholders of the next subprocess, the
target group for the professional press can also be said to be the developers of the
technology.
Martino stated that “by observing technological innovation at an early stage in this
sequence, it may be possible to anticipate when it will reach later stages in the
sequence, or at least provide warning that further developments may follow”
(Martino, 2003). In this study, we measure the activity of the writing on the
technology in sources pointed out by the technology life cycle indicators. The
technology life cycle indicators act not only as indicators but point out the proper
sources for the activity measurement at different stages of the technology
development. These different sources can also be derived from the idea that
different stakeholders are reached at different stage of the innovation
commercialization idea.
8
3 Empirical Study
The method chosen for the measurement of communication activity was
bibliometrics, defined as a general means for measuring texts and information
(Borgman & Furner, 2002; Norton, 2000). Bibliometrics is an effecting way to
explore, organize and analyze large amounts of historical data, and identify
“hidden patterns” (Daim, Rueda, Martin, & Gerdsri, 2006). Nevertheless,
bibliometrics have its limitations. Watts and Porter, for example, note that counts
do not distinguish quality, and much technological development work is not
reflected in publications (Watts & Porter, 1997). Martino (2003), on the other hand,
emphasizes that bibliometrics does not eliminate the need for expert analysis
although it does ease the task. These limitations, however, can be evaded by
employing the method to seek general trends as opposed to specific events. In this
study, we are looking for the weak signals to observe the overall development of
the technology. In this sense, the method is appropriate for this study although its
limitations must be taken into consideration.
The bibliometrical study was carried out using the monthly number of articles
quoting the DVD (digital video/versatile disc) technology in sources indicated by
the life cycle indicators. We selected the applied research and application phases
for the target of our study. These are interesting targets, as the indicators suggested
for these phases are professional and general press through which the business
environment is often observed. The target country for the study was the USA.
The technology life cycle indicators gave Engineering Index as an example of the
applied research phase so we chose Electronic Engineering Times to represent the
applied research phase. Application phase was represented by The New York
Times for the indicator list gave newspaper abstracts as a proper indicator for
application phase. The names of the technologies were searched from the body text
and the search was carried out from material between 1995 and 2006.
Only one source was selected from both phases to represent the situation. This was
mainly due limited accessibility. Although the statistical value of this study
remains therefore limited, these measurements give some guidelines how to
measure the activity and detect the weak signals in the future. The selection for the
sources was based on best fit. What was meant by best fitting was that the
newspaper or magazine should have relatively wide circulation, meaningful content,
and suitable target group for the purpose. Also the accessibility formed part of the
fitting, meaning that only sources that were accessible for a time period that
covered the time just after the launch were considered suitable. The results were
assessed by levelling the curves with moving average trend line with the period of
five. This made the trend more visible. The trends were compared between
different methods, absolute and relative values; and different sources.
9
4 Results and Discussion
The abbreviation DVD stands for “digital video disc” or “digital versatile disc”.
DVD is a technology for optical disc storage and the standard has widespread
support from all major electronics companies, all major computer hardware
companies and all major music and movies studios (Taylor, 2006). Some of the
early proposals for "high-density CD" were made in 1993, and from those efforts
two competing formats emerged: The MMCD format whose strongest back up
were Sony and Philips, and the SD format which was backed, for example, by
Toshiba, Matsushita and Time Warner. To avoid the confusing and costly repeat of
the VHS vs. Betamax videotape battle, a group led by IBM insisted that a single
standard should be agreed on. The combined DVD format was announced in
September of 1995. (Taylor, 2006)
The DVD video player was launched November 1996 in Japan, and soon after in
the USA and Europe (Taylor, 2006). Since that, the DVD technology has evolved a
lot and so has the market. According to sales figures released by NPDTechworld in
2002, DVD was the fastest-selling product in the history of the consumerelectronics market (Shim, 2002). The sales figures in USA can be seen in Figure 3.
The meaning of the agreed standard can not be underestimated. The openness of
the product launch aided public awareness of the DVD before it was released.
(Sedman, 1998). The present DVD technology has already reached a fairly mature
stage in the USA and the sales are declining. But new generation is about to come
to the markets. HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are competing to become the next
generation optical standard.
25000
Vol (1000s)
20000
15000
***
10000
5000
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
*** Jan-Sep. 2006
Figure 3. Yearly sales volumes of DVD video players in USA (Adapted from
"Consumer Electronics Association: CEA DVD Player Sales", 2006)
10
The results from measuring the activity of writing quoting DVD gave good results
in the way that several things can be spotted. The results from the US sources can
be seen in Figure 4 and Figure 5. In Figure 4, the first thing to notice is the overall
number of hits that reaches much higher numbers in The New York Times (NYT)
than in Electronic Engineering Times (EET). But before the end of 1999 there are
more hits in EET than in NYT. The curves for the activity of mentioning the
technology behave very differently in different sources. The indicator for the
applied research, EET, behaves as it was presumed to be behaving: first a rise in
activity before any sales was done, and then a falling pattern. The application phase
indicator, NYT, also acts similarly to the assumed behavior: a rising trend that
follows the sales figures. The noteworthy thing is though that The New York
Times can also be thought to represent the social impact phase as the paper can
also be classified as popular and business press. In that sense, the rising pattern
without a fall is justified.
New York Times
140
25
120
100
No. of articles
20
15
10
80
60
n05
n04
n06
Ja
Ja
Ja
n02
n01
n00
n99
n03
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
n97
n98
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
n95
Ja
n05
n06
Ja
Ja
n04
n03
Ja
Ja
n01
n02
Ja
n00
Ja
Ja
n99
n98
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
n96
0
n97
20
0
n96
40
5
n95
No. of articles
Electronic Engineering Times
30
Figure 4. The number of articles quoting DVD in Electronic Engineering
Times (left) and New York Times (right).
The relative values for the appearance of DVD in NYT and EET can be seen in
Figure 5. The relative value means that the number of hits each month has been
calculated as a percentage of all articles published in the paper that month. This
gives a better perspective to the visibility aspect since the effect of varying absolute
number of articles published in the outlet is eliminated.
Electronic Engineering Times
New York Times
9
1,8
8
1,6
7
1,4
6
1,2
5
11
Ja
n05
Ja
n06
Ja
n03
Ja
n04
Ja
n01
Ja
n02
Ja
n99
Ja
n00
Ja
n95
Ja
n96
Ja
n05
Ja
n06
0
Ja
n03
Ja
n04
0,2
0
Ja
n01
Ja
n02
0,4
1
Ja
n99
Ja
n00
0,6
2
Ja
n97
Ja
n98
3
Ja
n95
Ja
n96
0,8
Ja
n97
Ja
n98
%
%
1
4
Figure 5. The relative (percentages of all articles) frequency of articles
quoting DVD in Electronic Engineering Times (left) and New York Times
(right).
From Figure 5 it can be noted that although the number of articles quoting DVD
was notably higher in NYT the relative frequency of hits is more than tenfold in
EET compared to NYT before the year 2000. After that the relative appearance
increases but reaches the maximum of less than 1.6 % while the maximum in EET
was almost 8% of all articles. The shapes of the graphs remain similar to the
absolute frequency graph (Figure 4.) although the clear descend noted in the EET
graph has turned into only slight descend and remains close to the same level with
the early peak in 1997-1998.
When considering the sales figures and professional electronic source together, we
note that the professional EET publishes significant amounts of articles considering
DVD years before the commercial success is exhibited in the sales figures.
Significant rise in DVD sales figures i.e. the entry into the growth phase of
innovation adoption takes place during the 1999. However, EET number of articles
considering DVD technology rise rapidly during 1996-1997 period and stabilizes
during 1998 to its highest level. In contrast, in NYT we do not see similar patterns,
rather the number of articles relates closely to the cumulative sales of DVD players.
5 Conclusions
The paper reports study of occurrences of DVD technology in general and trade
publication representing both the technology itself and the media content to be used
with the technology. Therefore, the study gives us a view on the whole technology
system and its representation of the popularization in the innovation process. The
results show that popularization of DVD technology in general press, e.g. NYT,
follows closely with adoption figures growing steadily from the start. However, our
study also confirms that trade publications can be used to obtain early signals on
the future of technological innovations. In this paper we show the existence of
sharp rise of popularization and discussion on new technology before it is
commercialized and launched to the marketplace. This sharp increase in
occurrences also declines rapidly and in the early phases of the adoption dynamics.
In conclusion, based on our limited empirical basis, we conclude that trade
publications, e.g. EET, are appropriate sources for seeking weak signals
considering new technological innovations.
Limitations of this type of exploratory are of course numerous and provide fruitful
avenues for future research. These include widening the data and sources under
scrutiny. Also, it might fruitful to study actual content of the news i.e. what type
popularization is taking place, what are the thematic trends and in which sources.
In summary, trade publications sources may prove to be appropriate in technology
forecasting in search of weak signals of future successful technologies, and
12
therefore also useful sources for innovation journalists in popular press. It may also
reveal patterns that distinguish successful from or unsuccessful technologies.
Saku Mäkinen, PhD, is a professor of technology management and vice-head of
the Institute of Industrial Management, Tampere University of Technology (TUT),
Finland. Dr. Mäkinen has been previously a Fellow at the Department of Marketing,
Faculty of Business Administration, National University of Singapore (NUS). He
has also previously been with the Australian Graduate School of Management
(AGSM) at the University of New South Wales, Australia. He received his Master of
Science degree in Electrical Engineering and PhD in Technology Strategy from
TUT. Dr. Mäkinen has been active both in academic and practising roles. His
recent academic research has appeared in leading international forums. His
professional experience in the industry has included leadership positions in
the high-tech sector in addition to consulting a number of international
enterprises. His research interests include technology and innovation strategy and
management, technology evolution and society, international business, and
industry evolution. He has taught under-graduate, graduate and doctoral courses in
various subjects in marketing, strategy, technology management, innovation
management, and R&D. currently he is also the Director of the Center for
Innovation
and
Technology
Research
(CITER,
http://www.tut.fi/citer) at TUT.
Heini M. Järvenpää is a researcher and a Ph.D. student at the Center for
Innovation and Technology Research (CITER) in Tampere University of
Technology (TUT), Finland. She earned her M.Sc. (Eng.) from TUT in 2006
majoring in Industrial Management. Her research interests include technology and
innovation foresight and strategy.
Turo Uskali is a visiting scholar at the Innovation Journalism Program at Stanford and a
senior research scholar at the department of communication at the University of Jyväskylä in
Finland. He has worked with the first Finnish innovation journalism education and research
program. He is specialized on foreign news and financial news practices and wrote his
doctoral dissertation in 2003 about the work of Finnish correspondents in Moscow 1957-75.
He has worked for five years as a national, foreign, business and law reporter for various
leading Finnish media outlets such as Yleisradio´s Tv-news (Finnish Broadcasting company),
Taloussanomat (the second largest daily business newspaper) and Helsingin Sanomat (the
leading Finnish daily newspaper). He has also published, edited and co-edited all together
four books about journalism in Finland. Latest one, 2007, tells about the new world of global
foreign affairs news.
Jari Ojala, Ph.D. professor of history at University of Jyväskylä, Finland. He is also Editorin-Chief in Scandinavian Journal of History. His main research interests include business
history (shipping, forestry, and media industries), industrial evolution, and institutional
economics. He is especially interested in the role played by the information in economic
activity over a long time span. The time period of his research is from the early modern
period up to our days.
13
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