EUROPEAN STRATEGY AND POLICY ANALYSIS SYSTEM CONFERENCE
GLOBAL TRENDS 2030
Key Challenges Ahead for
the European Union
PROGRAMME
BRUSSELS
17-18 February 2014
14.30 – 15.40 Opening comments – James Elles MEP
Chairman, ESPAS Inter-institutional Task Force
Plenary session: Global Trends – The Big Picture
Moderator: Dr Constanze Stelzenmüller – Senior Transatlantic Fellow, German Marshall Fund
Dr Simon Serfaty – Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair (Emeritus) in Global Security and Geopolitics, Center
for Strategic and International Studies
Dr Antonio Missiroli – Director, European Union Institute for Security Studies, Paris
Dr Ruan Zongze – Vice-President, China Institute of International Studies
15.40 – 16.00 Coffee
16.00 – 18.15
Working sessions on the Economy
A. Will the rising competitiveness of certain new players on the global scene make it more
difficult for the European Union to sustain its social models? Will future growth be jobless?
Moderator: Maria Angeles BENITEZ SALAS, Deputy Head, Bureau of European Policy
Advisers, European Commission
Introduction: Dr Cinzia Alcidi – Head of Economic Policy Unit, Centre for European Policy Studies
Commentators: Karen Ward – Senior Global Economist, HSBC
Pier Carlo Padoan – Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist, OECD
Rapporteur: Vasco Cal – Adviser, Bureau of European Policy Advisers, European Commission
B. Can the European Union adapt more quickly to technological change? How radical is the
change in the Digital economy, especially the rise of big data?
Moderator:
Professor Anne Glover CBE, Chief Scientific Adviser to the President of the
European Commission
Introduction: Robert Madelin – Director General, DG CONNECT, European Commission
Commentators: Peter Olson – President DIGITALEUROPE, Head of European Affairs, Ericsson
David Roberts – Vice-President and Graduate Studies Program Director, Singularity University
Rapporteur: Peter Linton – Advisor to the Board of Governors, European Internet Foundation
C. What can the European Union do to enhance the current rules – based system in the UN and
other multilateral organisations. Could the TTIP be a real game changer?
Moderator: Thomas Bagger, Head of Policy Planning, Federal Foreign Office, Berlin
Introduction: Christian Leffler – Managing Director Americas, European External Action Service
Commentators: Bruce Stokes – Director, Global Economic Attitudes, Pew Research Center
Mansueto Almeida – Senior Researcher at the Brazilian Institute of Applied
Economic Research
Rapporteur: Etienne Bassot – Head of Unit, Policy Department, Directorate General for
External Policies, European Parliament
D. Has the European sovereign and private debt crisis been fixed? How can the European Union
contribute to global economic stability?
Moderator:
Paul Adamson – Founder/Editor, E!Sharp
Introduction: Karel Lannoo – Chief Executive, Centre for European Policy Studies
Commentators: Johannes Lindner – Head of Division, EU Institutions and Fora Division, Directorate
General International and European Relations, European Central Bank
Daniela Schwarzer – Director of the Europe Program, German Marshall Fund
Rapporteur: Baudouin Regout – Adviser, Bureau of European Policy Advisers, European
Commission
Monday 17 February
18.30 – 20.00
Conference Reception
Messages of support for ESPAS from:
Jean-Claude Thébault – Director General, Bureau of European Policy Advisers, European Commission
Klaus Welle – Secretary-General, European Parliament
Jim Cloos – Deputy Director-General, General and Institutional Policy, EU Council Secretariat
David O’Sullivan – Chief Operating Officer, European External Action Service
followed by
Launch of ESPAS Global Repository website
Monday 17 February
09.30 – 10.30 In conversation with
the President of the European Commission
José Manuel Barroso
Introduction: Jean-Claude Thébault – Director General, Bureau of European Policy Advisers, European
Commission
Moderator: John Peet – Europe Editor, The Economist
10.30 – 10.45 Coffee
10.45 – 12.45 Working sessions on Societal Trends
A. What are the implications of rapidly rising average longevity in advanced countries for our
pension and social security systems?
Moderator: Giles Merritt – Secretary General, Friends of Europe
Introduction: Dr Jeremy Ghez – Affiliate Professor, HEC Paris
Commentators: Professor Žiga Turk – University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
Burkhard Ober – Head of the Allianz SE - European Affairs Office, Brussels
Rapporteur: Marianne Paasi – DG Research and Innovation, European Commission
B. What are the implications for public policy in the European Union of a series of destabilising
trends, notably growing inequality in the developed and the developing world?
Moderator: Dr Franck Debié – Team Leader, EP2025, Cabinet of the Secretary-General,
European Parliament
Introduction: Stijn Hoorens – Associate Director, RAND Europe
Commentators: Professor Sylvia Walby OBE, Distinguished Professor of Sociology and UNESCO
Chair in Gender Research, Lancaster University, UK
Dr Julia Schünemann – Senior Researcher and Project Leader, African Futures,
Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria
Rapporteur: Dr Svitlana Kobzar – Assistant Professor at Vesalius College, Free University of
Brussels (VUB)
C. What are the implications for our societies of the growing empowerment of individuals?
Moderator: Agnès Hubert – Adviser, Bureau of European Policy Advisers, European Commission
Introduction: Ulrich Bunjes – Special Coordinator, Directorate General of Democracy, Council
of Europe
Commentators: Benoît Derenne – Director, Foundation for Future Generations
Nicole Dewandre – Advisor for societal issues to the Director General, DG
CONNECT, European Commission
Rapporteur: Tess Hellgren – Associate Analyst, RAND Europe
D. What are the implications for the European Union of greater resource scarcity? How should
the EU manage the changing landscape in energy supply?
Moderator: Edit Herczog MEP
Introduction: Dominique Ristori – Director General, DG Energy, European Commission
Commentators: Marjolein de Ridder - Strategic Policy Analyst, The Hague Centre for Strategic
Studies
Olof Ehrenkrona – Political Adviser/Chief of Staff, Ministry for Foreign Affairs,
Sweden
Rapporteur: 12.45 – 14.00 Tassos Haniotis – Director, DG AGRI, European Commission
Lunch
Tuesday 18 February
14.00 – 16.00 Working Sessions on International Governance and Power
A. What are the implications of the continued rise of China and other regional players?
Moderator: Shada Islam – Director of Policy, Friends of Europe
Introduction: David O’Sullivan – Chief Operating Officer, European External Action Service
Commentators: Dr Banning Garrett – Strategic Foresight Senior Fellow for Innovation and
Global Trends, Atlantic Council
Sergio Bitar – Director Global Trends and the Future of Latin America Project,
Inter-American Dialogue
Rapporteur: Graeme Carter – Adviser, Bureau of European Policy Advisers, European
Commission
B. Can the European Union develop security and defence policies to respond to shrinking
budgets and likely threats?
Moderator:
Matthew Reece – Head of Programming Unit, General Political Questions
Directorate, Council of the European Union
Introduction: Elmar Brok MEP – Chairman, Committee on Foreign Affairs, European Parliament
Commentators: Dr Simon Serfaty – Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair (Emeritus) in Global Security and
Geopolitics, Center for Strategic and International Studies
General Sir Rupert Smith KCB DSO OBE QGM, Former NATO Deputy Supreme
Allied Commander Europe
Rapporteur: Eric Peters – Adviser, Bureau of European Policy Advisers, European Commission
C. Will governance systems be able to respond effectively to the challenges brought about by
social and political dissatisfaction?
Moderator: Anthony Teasdale – Director-General, Directorate-General for Parliamentary
Research Services, European Parliament
Introduction: Jim Cloos – Deputy Director-General, General and Institutional Policy, EU Council
Secretariat
Commentators: Mathew J Burrows – Director, Strategic Foresight Initiative, Atlantic Council
Dr Radha Kumar – Director General, Delhi Policy Group
Dr Giovanni Grevi – Director, FRIDE
Rapporteur: John Wyles – Consultant and journalist
D. Can the European Union continue to project sufficient security to support state building and
prevent serious conflicts between the main actors in its neighbourhood?
Moderator:
Alfredo Conte – Head of Strategic Planning Division, European External Action
Service
Introduction: Stefan Lehne – Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Europe
Commentators: Feodor Voytolovskiy – Head of Section, IMEMO RAN (Institute of World Economy
and International Relations), Russia
Paweł Świeboda – President, demosEUROPA – Centre for European Strategy
Rapporteur: 16.00 – 17.00 Heather Grabbe – Director, Open Society European Policy Institute
Plenary session:
Mapping Europe’s Future - Challenges and Opportunities
Moderator:
Reinhard Bütikofer MEP
Commentators:
Ann Mettler – Executive Director and Co-Founder, The Lisbon Council
John Wyles – Consultant and Journalist
Mathew J Burrows – Director, Strategic Foresight Initiative, Atlantic Council
John Peet – Europe Editor, The Economist
Tuesday 18 February