Demi-journée de l'Environnement interne à l'ISE
Stock modelling for appliances – At the example of
lighting.
Dr. Mahbod Heidari
13 septembre 2016
Idelette Floret - Avril 2016
1
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Introduction
Current stock (Initial number of bulbs)
Potential savings
Methodology of Stock Model
Inflow of products
1. Sale prediction
2. Number of new households
6. Outflow of products
1. Survival Model (Weibull distribution)
2. Average lifetime and standard deviation
7. Results
8. Conclusion
April 2016
2
Introduction





Energy strategy 2050.
Energy efficiency measures, highest potential to reduce energy
consumption and CO2.
Lighting, highest potential to reduce electricity consumption in
residential sector.
Emergence of LEDs, increasing performance, decreasing cost,
change of market.
Necessity to study the dynamic of stock.
June 2016
3
Framework
 SCCER-CREST

Work Package 3: Energy Policy, Markets and Regulation



Task 3.2 Sectoral Effects of Energy Policy and Energy Market Regulation
Analysis of Energy Savings and emission through EE measures.
Techno-economic bottom-up models tailored for Swiss energy market.
June 2016
4
Lighting in households- Current state
Annual potential energy savings for Lighting in Household in
Switzerland is based on:
Number of light bulbs (106) in current
stock*
[VALEUR];
[VALEUR];
[POURCEN
[VALEUR]; [POURCEN
TAGE]
TAGE]
[VALEUR];
[POURCEN
TAGE]
[POURCEN
TAGE]
- Current stock per type of lighting technology
- Energy savings potential if all devices are replaced by highly
energy efficient ones.
Incandescent
Energy Savings Potential [PJ/year]
Halogen
CFL
3
LED
2.18
2
1.87
1.81
1.46
1
0.39
0
June 2016
Inc->CFL
Inc->LED
Hal->CFL Hal->LED CFL->LED
5
Lighting in households- Potential savings
Comparing our Bottom-up model to Prognos :
4.4 PJ of potential saving vs 6.3 PJ difference between New
Energy Policy scenario with a Frozen Efficiency.
Specific cost [CHF/GJ]
Retrofit (Simple)
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10 0
-20
-30
-40
-50
1,3,5
2,4
5
1.Inc--> LED
3.Hal -->LED
5.CFL -->LED
2.Inc--> CFL
4.Hal-->CFL
5
(-74%)
1
2
2
1
3
4
4
5
(-82%)
(-75%)
3
*
Cumulative Annual Energy Saving [PJ/year]
Household perspective
Social perspective
Household perspective
2010
Social perspective
June 2016
2035
*Potential saving Estimated by UNIGE
6
Methodology of stock model
Stock model follows the methodology of material flow analysis (MFA).
𝐹𝑖𝑛 𝑡 = S t − 𝑆0 + 𝐹𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝑡
𝐿
𝐹𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝑡 =
𝐹𝑖𝑛 𝑡 − 𝑘 ∗ 𝑑 𝑘
𝑘=1
𝐹𝑖𝑛 𝑡 and 𝐹𝑖𝑛 𝑡 − 𝑘 are the product inflows (per unit) entering society in year 𝑡 and year 𝑡 − 𝑘;
𝐹𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝑡 is the outflow of obsolete product in year t;
S t is the in-use stocks of product (per unit) in year 𝑡;
𝑆0 is the initial stock of product;
𝐿 is the maximum lifetime (years) of the product;
𝑑 𝑘 is the lifetime distribution density value;
June 2016
7
Price and efficiency modeling of
light bulbs per technology
exponential function used for projection of future parameters
𝑃 𝑡 = (𝑃0 − 𝑃𝑓 ). 𝑒 −𝑟𝑡 + 𝑃𝑓
Efficacy history and projection for future.
Price history and projection for future
June 2016
10
Distribution of lifetimes
Lifetime modeling (Weibull distribution):
Probability density function(p.d.f.)
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
June 2016
11
Results of stock model
• Stock per technology:
• Change in the stock relative to the previous year is
equal to the input minus the output :
June 2016
13
Results of stock model
Total Energy Consumption Evolution:
June 2016
Energy Consumption per Technology
14
Discussion and conclusions
• The annual potential energy savings for lighting in households in
Switzerland is 4.4 PJ. This estimation is very close to Prognos scenario with
a Forzen Efficiency minus New Energy Policy (NEP).
• For household lighting, almost all the measures are highly cost effective
thanks to the emergence and cost decrease of LED lighting.
June 2016
16