SNAPSHOT
A MONTHLY UPDATE OF THE FIFTH DISTRICT ECONOMY
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND
September 2016
NORTH CAROLINA
September Summary
According to recent data, North Carolina’s economy continued to improve as labor markets
strengthened, household conditions improved, and housing market indicators were positive.
Labor Markets: Payroll employment in North Carolina rose 0.3 percent in July as employers
added 12,000 jobs in the month. The government sector added the most positions (5,200
jobs) for the second straight month, followed by the professional and business services
(3,300 jobs) and the financial services industry, which added 2,600 jobs. On the downside,
four industries contracted in July. The manufacturing industry shed the most jobs (1,700
jobs) followed by the trade, transportation, and utilities industry that cut 1,500 jobs. Smaller
losses were reported in the information and leisure and hospitality industries. On a year-overyear basis, total employment in North Carolina grew 2.2 percent as jobs were added in every
industry except manufacturing and information. The professional and services industry
expanded 4.8 percent since July 2015 as firms added 28,600 jobs for the largest growth in
both percentage and absolute terms. The construction industry posted the second largest
growth of 4.4 percent; however, the industry is one of the smallest in the state, so the growth
resulted in 8,400 jobs.
Household Conditions: North Carolina’s unemployment rate declined 0.2 percentage point
to 4.7 percent in July and declined 1.0 percentage point since July 2015. In the second
quarter of 2016, the share of mortgages with payments 90 or more days past due was
virtually unchanged at 1.5 percent. The prime delinquency rate edged down to 0.7 percent
in the quarter while the subprime rate declined 0.1 percentage point to 6.7 percent. In the
first quarter of 2016, real personal income in North Carolina rose 0.9 percent and was 3.9
percent higher than in the first quarter of 2015.
Housing Markets: North Carolina issued 5,922 new residential permits in July, up 13.7 percent
from the prior month and up 19.9 percent from July 2015. The most permits were issued in
the Charlotte MSA (2,347 permits), which was a 47.2 percent increase in the month and 62.5
percent more than were issued last July. North Carolina housing starts totaled 76,000 in July,
up 35.9 percent from June and up 40.6 percent on a year-over-year basis. According to
CoreLogic Information Solutions, home values in North Carolina appreciated 0.8 percent in
June and 4.9 percent since June 2015. House prices grew in June in every MSA except
Durham and Winston-Salem; on a year-over-year basis, every MSA except Fayetteville and
Greenville reported house price growth.
A Closer Look at… Commuting
According to the Census Bureau's 2014 American Community Survey 5-year estimates:
•
In North Carolina, 1.1 percent of workers took public transportation to work. Of those
31.6 percent did not have a vehicle available, 30.9 percent owned their home, and 60.9
percent were at or above 150 percent of the poverty level.
•
In North Carolina, 10.2 percent of workers carpooled to work. Of those 6.9 percent did
not have a vehicle available, 57.4 percent owned their home, and 73.4 percent were at
or above 150 percent of the poverty level.
•
In North Carolina, 81.2 percent of workers drove alone to work. Of those 78.9 percent
had 2 or more vehicles available, 70.4 percent owned their home, and 85.6 percent were
at or above 150 percent of the poverty level.
Commute Times by Mode of Transportation
Minutes
Less than 10
10 to 14
15 to 19
Drove Alone
20 to 24
Public Transportation
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 59
60 or more
0
5
10
15
Percent of Total
20
25
30
NORTH CAROLINA 1
SNAPSHOT
A MONTHLY UPDATE OF THE FIFTH DISTRICT ECONOMY
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND
September 2016
NORTH CAROLINA
Labor Market Conditions
Payroll Employment (SA)
North Carolina Payroll Employment Performance
Period
Level (000s)
MoM % Change
YoY % Change
United States - Total
July
144,448.0
0.18
1.72
Fifth District - Total
North Carolina - Total
Other Services
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
14,555.6
4,340.6
5.5
198.1
459.9
818.3
75.7
219.6
618.5
582.4
468.8
156.8
0.11
0.28
0.00
0.97
-0.37
-0.18
-0.53
1.20
0.54
0.29
-0.09
0.84
1.78
2.22
0.00
4.43
-0.30
2.60
-0.53
0.09
4.85
1.55
2.07
3.09
Government
July
737.0
0.71
2.06
Period
Level (000s)
YoY % Change
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
181.9
1,115.4
297.4
126.3
353.6
599.7
121.6
255.2
1.11
2.20
2.30
2.18
1.76
3.34
1.67
0.87
Logging and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Metro Payroll Employment (NSA)
Asheville MSA - Total
Charlotte MSA - Total
Durham MSA - Total
Fayetteville MSA - Total
Greensboro-High Point MSA - Total
Raleigh-Cary MSA - Total
Wilmington MSA - Total
Winston-Salem MSA - Total
Year-over-Year Percent Change through July 2016
North Carolina - Total
2.2
Logging and Mining
0.0
Construction
4.4
Manufacturing -0.3
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
2.6
Information -0.5
Financial Activities
0.1
Professional and Business Services
4.8
Education and Health Services
1.6
Leisure and Hospitality
2.1
Other Services
3.1
Government
2.1
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
North Carolina Total Employment Performance
Year-over-Year Percent Change through July 2016
United States (SA)
1.7
Fifth District (SA)
1.8
North Carolina (SA)
2.2
Asheville MSA
1.1
Charlotte MSA
2.2
Durham MSA
2.3
Fayetteville MSA
2.2
Greensboro-High Point MSA
1.8
Raleigh-Cary MSA
3.3
Wilmington MSA
1.7
Winston-Salem MSA
0.9
0
1
2
3
4
NORTH CAROLINA 2
SNAPSHOT
A MONTHLY UPDATE OF THE FIFTH DISTRICT ECONOMY
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND
September 2016
NORTH CAROLINA
Labor Market Conditions
North Carolina Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate (SA)
July 16
June 16
Through July 2016
July 15
United States
4.9
4.9
5.3
12
Fifth District
North Carolina
Asheville MSA
Charlotte MSA
Durham MSA
Fayetteville MSA
Greensboro-High Point MSA
Raleigh-Cary MSA
Wilmington MSA
Winston-Salem MSA
4.5
4.7
3.8
4.5
4.1
5.8
4.7
3.9
4.4
4.4
4.6
4.9
3.9
4.6
4.3
6.1
4.9
4.1
4.6
4.6
5.3
5.7
4.7
5.4
5.0
7.4
5.9
4.8
5.5
5.5
11
Period
Level (000s)
MoM % Change
YoY % Change
United States
July
159,287
0.26
1.38
Fifth District
North Carolina
Asheville MSA
Charlotte MSA
Durham MSA
Fayetteville MSA
Greensboro-High Point MSA
Raleigh-Cary MSA
Wilmington MSA
Winston-Salem MSA
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
15,676
4,827
220
1,261
285
147
366
675
141
319
-0.25
-0.54
-0.77
-0.35
-0.04
-0.14
-0.57
0.04
0.36
-0.28
0.77
1.42
0.59
1.70
1.46
0.69
0.47
2.69
0.64
0.35
Period
Level
MoM % Change
YoY % Change
United States
Fifth District
July
July
1,049,694
67,198
-6.72
-9.75
-11.84
-12.18
North Carolina
July
15,553
-5.98
-20.11
Civilian Labor Force (SA)
Initial Unemployment Claims (NSA)
United States
North Carolina
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
North Carolina Labor Force
Year-over-Year Percent Change through July 2016
4
United States
North Carolina
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
NORTH CAROLINA 3
SNAPSHOT
A MONTHLY UPDATE OF THE FIFTH DISTRICT ECONOMY
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND
September 2016
NORTH CAROLINA
Household Conditions
Real Personal Income (SA)
North Carolina Real Personal Income
Period
Level ($mil)
QoQ % Change
Year-over-Year Percent Change through Q1:16
YoY % Change
United States
Q1:16
14,312,072
0.88
3.36
8
Fifth District
North Carolina
Q1:16
Q1:16
1,389,789
382,939
0.96
0.91
3.65
3.91
6
4
Median Family Income
Period
Level (000s)
QoQ % Change
YoY % Change
Asheville MSA
Charlotte MSA
Durham MSA
Fayetteville MSA
Greensboro-High Point MSA
Raleigh-Cary MSA
Winston-Salem MSA
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
57.9
67.0
74.9
52.2
57.2
76.6
58.5
---------------
3.58
-0.30
11.13
-3.87
5.93
-2.79
4.28
Non-Business Bankruptcies
Period
Level
QoQ % Change
YoY % Change
United States
Fifth District
North Carolina
Q2:16
Q2:16
Q2:16
202,334
16,806
3,796
3.40
3.54
4.89
-6.85
-0.20
-3.63
Q2:16
Q1:16
Q2:15
1.47
0.83
5.82
1.55
0.89
6.07
1.86
1.05
6.61
1.45
0.70
6.66
1.54
0.76
6.83
1.86
0.92
7.57
Mortgage Delinquencies (% 90+ Days Delinquent)
United States
All Mortgages
Prime
Subprime
North Carolina
All Mortgages
Prime
Subprime
2
0
-2
United States
-4
North Carolina
-6
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
North Carolina Mortgage Delinquencies
Percent 90+ Days Delinquent through Q2:16
6
United States
5
North Carolina
4
3
2
1
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
NORTH CAROLINA 4
SNAPSHOT
A MONTHLY UPDATE OF THE FIFTH DISTRICT ECONOMY
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND
September 2016
NORTH CAROLINA
Real Estate Conditions
Total Private Building Permits (NSA)
North Carolina Building Permits
Year-over-Year Percent Change through July 2016
Period
Level
MoM % Change
YoY % Change
United States
July
95,125
-16.84
-6.76
120
Fifth District
North Carolina
Asheville MSA
Charlotte MSA
Durham MSA
Fayetteville MSA
Greensboro-High Point MSA
Greenville MSA
Hickory MSA
Jacksonville MSA
Raleigh-Cary MSA
Wilmington MSA
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
July
12,572
5,922
164
2,347
351
49
156
152
9
76
1,666
78
-8.31
13.67
-41.43
47.24
13.96
-12.50
-56.91
533.33
--40.74
20.90
-30.97
-5.49
19.88
0.00
62.53
-42.08
-53.33
-35.27
700.00
-57.14
-14.61
39.53
-51.25
100
Winston-Salem MSA
July
83
-71.58
6.41
Total Private Housing Starts (SAAR)
United States
Fifth District
North Carolina
Period
Level (000s)
MoM % Change
YoY % Change
July
July
July
1,211
161
76.0
2.11
9.59
35.87
5.58
10.87
40.62
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014
2015
2016
North Carolina Housing Starts
Thousands of Units (SAAR) July 2016
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
NORTH CAROLINA 5
SNAPSHOT
A MONTHLY UPDATE OF THE FIFTH DISTRICT ECONOMY
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND
September 2016
NORTH CAROLINA
Real Estate Conditions
House Price Index (2000=100)
North Carolina House Price Index (CoreLogic)
Period
Level
MoM % Change
Year-over-Year Percent Change through June 2016
YoY % Change
United States
June
194
1.54
6.43
15
Fifth District
North Carolina
Asheville MSA
Charlotte MSA
Durham MSA
Fayetteville MSA
Greensboro-High Point MSA
Greenville MSA
Hickory MSA
Jacksonville MSA
Raleigh-Cary MSA
Wilmington MSA
Winston-Salem MSA
June
June
June
June
June
June
June
June
June
June
June
June
June
192
150
192
157
149
119
126
127
127
166
147
161
138
1.00
0.82
2.27
1.35
-0.16
1.43
0.80
0.80
2.24
2.49
0.35
0.29
-0.02
3.83
4.89
7.98
5.41
4.99
-1.33
5.30
-1.68
3.99
5.06
5.45
4.39
2.95
10
Median Home Sales Price - NAR (NSA)
Period
Charlotte MSA
Durham MSA
Greensboro-High Point MSA
Raleigh-Cary MSA
Q2:16
Q2:16
Q2:16
Q2:16
Median Home Sales Price - NAHB
Period
Q2:16
Q2:16
Q2:16
Q2:16
Q2:16
Q2:16
Q2:16
Asheville MSA
Charlotte MSA
Durham MSA
Fayetteville MSA
Greensboro-High Point MSA
Raleigh-Cary MSA
Winston-Salem MSA
Level ($000s) QoQ % Change
218
246
159
259
18.02
9.30
12.82
10.88
Level ($000s) QoQ % Change
234
10.38
208
8.33
225
7.14
130
4.00
150
9.49
260
7.44
154
18.46
YoY % Change
5.57
5.13
-0.31
4.40
YoY % Change
8.84
-2.80
3.21
2.36
0.67
4.00
8.45
5
0
-5
-10
United States
-15
-20
2006
North Carolina
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Greensboro MSA Median Home Sales Price (NAR)
Year-over-Year Percent Change through Q2:16
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
NORTH CAROLINA 6
SNAPSHOT
A MONTHLY UPDATE OF THE FIFTH DISTRICT ECONOMY
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND
September 2016
NORTH CAROLINA
Real Estate Conditions
Housing Opportunity Index (%)
Charlotte MSA Office Vacancy Rate
Q2:16
Q1:16
Through Q2:16
Q2:15
Asheville MSA
60.0
64.8
61.9
18
Charlotte MSA
Durham MSA
Fayetteville MSA
Greensboro-High Point MSA
Raleigh-Cary MSA
Winston-Salem MSA
70.0
73.7
79.5
76.7
69.0
79.8
70.2
75.5
79.7
79.8
72.7
86.5
66.7
68.3
81.1
75.3
71.5
79.5
17
Q2:16
Q1:16
Q2:15
9.2
9.9
8.8
10.4
9.3
11.5
5.6
7.4
5.8
7.7
5.7
8.1
9.8
7.2
10.5
7.9
11.7
9.6
Commercial Vacancy Rates (%)
Office Vacancies
Raleigh/Durham
Charlotte
Retail Vacancies
Raleigh/Durham
Charlotte
Industrial Vacancies
Raleigh/Durham
Charlotte
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2015
2016
Raleigh/Durham CSA Industrial Vacancy Rate
Through Q2:16
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
NORTH CAROLINA 7