Experian Automotive
Quarterly Briefing
Fourth quarter 2015 automotive market
share trends and registrations
Brad Smith | Director, Automotive Market Statistics
Marty Miller | Senior Product Manager, VIO
Experian Automotive
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Today’s presentation
Part one
What’s on the Road
 VIO by model year, segment, age and
market share
 U.S. light duty vehicles through
December 31, 2015
 U.S. medium and heavy duty
Marty Miller
Senior Product Manager, VIO through December 31, 2015
vehicles
 Presentation will be available 24-48 hours after Webinar
 Email with a link will be sent to all registrants to download
 Questions? Contact us at Auto@experian.com
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Session overview
Part two
Q4 2015 Registrations
 Market trends
 Geographic performance
 Manufacturer, make and model share
 Demographic overview
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Brad Smith
Director, Automotive
Market Statistics
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Vehicles in
Operation
What’s on the road today?
Light duty vehicles
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What’s on the road today?
VIO Light duty vehicles
VIO additions/deletions: 27.5 million (10.7%)
(new sales + out of operation)
VIO total changes: 67.4 million (26.1%)
(used sales + new sales + out of operation)
Vehicles in
operation
Used vehicle sales
39.9 million
Q4 2014
251.1
million
New vehicle sales
17.25 million
Carryover
Vehicles in
operation
Q4 2015
Net out of
operation
258 million
10.3
million
(2.7%)
(4%)
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Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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VIO change by model year (in millions)
Q4 2014 to Q4 2015
New Sales 17.25M
72.8% of all vehicles
within 14 MY (28%)
Out of
Operation
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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VIO by model year (in millions)
33.6% of VIO
MY2010+
88M vehicles within
“Sweet Spot”
(MY2004 – 2010)
77.4% of VIO
MY2001+
91.3% of VIO
MY1996+
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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Sweet Spot changing
Domestic v Import
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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Sweet Spot changing
Vehicle segment type
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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VIO Top 20 segments on the road market share
Change from Q4 2014
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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Average vehicle age (1967 to current MYs of period)
Rolling average vehicle age (first 20 MYs of period)
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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Percentage of VIO by manufacturer market share
Change from Q4 2014
Detroit 3 = 55.2%
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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VIO Vocation
How light duty commercial vehicles are used
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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VIO Vocation – Top makes/models
Light duty vehicles as of Q4 2015
(excludes rental / leasing / dealers)
Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
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Vehicles in
Operation
What’s on the road today?
Medium and heavy duty vehicles
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What’s on the road today? VIO by model year
Medium and heavy duty vehicles
29.5% of VIO
MY2010+
Vehicles in
operation
67.7% of VIO
MY2001+
Q4 2015
6.9
million
84.5% of VIO
MY1996+
Source: Experian Automotive as of December31, 2015 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only)
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VIO by GVW class & engine manufacturer share
Medium and heavy duty vehicles
Source: Experian Automotive as of December31, 2015 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only)
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Top 20 VIO Market share of Vocation – High level
Medium and heavy duty vehicles
Source: Experian Automotive as of December31, 2015 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only)
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U.S. Market Overview
Market Share
Loyalty
Conquest and Defection
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New vehicle registrations surpassed the 17 million
unit mark for the first time since 2005
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Throughout the recovery, the split between
individual and organizational vehicle registrations
has remained flat
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Generally speaking, new vehicle registrations are
equally distributed across the calendar year, with Q2
and Q3 seeing a slight increase above Q1 and Q4
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Light truck share of individual registration increased
4 percentage points from 2014 to 55%
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Led by Entry CUV, 10 vehicle segments accounted
for approximately 80% of new individual
registrations in 2015
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Small Pickups and Upper Premium Sports Cars took
the lead in year over year growth while alternative
fuel vehicles and high end luxury segments declined
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4 vehicles control more than half of the Entry Level
CUV Segment
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General Motors edged Toyota to lead all
manufacturers in market share in 2015
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Tata, Subaru and General Motors experienced the
largest year over year volume increase
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The U.S. market is growing increasingly more
competitive with 5 manufacturers fighting to hold or
achieve 15% market share
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Toyota, Ford and Chevrolet were the only 3 brands
to achieve double digit market share in 2015
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Of the top 15 brands, only Dodge and VW
experienced a year over year decline in new
individual registration volume
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Ford F150 led all models with 2.76% market share
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U.S. Market Overview
Loyalty, Conquest and
Defection
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New buyers are the most loyal to their brands,
followed by Certified Used and Non-Certified Used
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Loyalty rates across manufacturer, make, model and
dealer measures have been steadily increasing
since 2010
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Toyota leads all manufacturers with a loyalty rate of
nearly 70%
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Tata, Porsche and Volvo led all manufacturers in
year over year increases in manufacturer loyalty
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Subaru leads all brands with 67.9% of returning
owners buying another Subaru vehicle
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Lexus led all brands with a 7.2 percentage point
increase in brand loyalty
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Nissan NV 200 leads all models with 52.7% model
loyalty rate
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For every customer lost, Subaru gains nearly four
new customers from other brands
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King of the Conquests, Subaru gained more than
140k more customers than were lost to other brands
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In summary
 Light duty market size grows by 6.9M vehicles over the last 12 months as market
share of the CUV and Small Car segments continue to grow
 The aftermarket ‘Sweet Spot’ is set to change by Domestic v Import and by vehicle
type
 Commercial use (vocation) is dominated by Rental and Leasing, though
Construction vehicles are close behind, yet showing their age
 Total new vehicle registrations surpassed the 17 million unit mark for the first time
since 2005
 Led by the Entry CUV segment, 10 vehicle segments account for nearly 80% of
new individual registrations
 New buyers are 3.5 percentage points more loyal to their brands than certified used
buyers
 Subaru led all brands in make loyalty and in net conquests
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 Presentation will be available 24-48 hours after Webinar
 Email with a link will be sent to all registrants to download
 Questions? Contact us at Auto@experian.com
© 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
Experian Public.
44