Hydrogen: A Future Energy Carrier? Many see hydrogen as the clean fuel of the future, because its only by-product is water. Before hydrogen can become a significant part of the energy economy, many fundamental technological issues must be addressed. Governments, research institutions and businesses, including the oil and gas industry, must play important roles in solving problems related to hydrogen production, transport, storage and distribution. Kamel Bennaceur Gatwick, England Brian Clark Sugar Land, Texas, USA Franklin M. Orr, Jr. Global Climate and Energy Project (GCEP) Stanford University Stanford, California, USA T. S. Ramakrishnan Ridgefield, Connecticut, USA Claude Roulet Houston, Texas Ellen Stout Air Liquide Houston, Texas For help in preparation of this article, thanks to Chris de Koning, Shell Hydrogen BV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Chris Edwards and Maxine Lym, GCEP, Stanford, California. ECLIPSE 300 is a mark of Schlumberger. Roller Pac is a mark of Axane. 30 The world has a voracious appetite for energy. Abundant, inexpensive resources have fueled technological advances from the Industrial Revolution to the present. Continued growth will require a continued supply of inexpensive energy that is not sustainable with current resources. In addition, concerns about greenhouse-gas emissions from fossil-fuel sources are generating a new set of technological requirements. In the ideal, albeit distant, future is a world of renewable, pollution-free energy sources for everything from electrical power grids to personal vehicles. The path to that future is, technologically speaking, a steep uphill climb. Hydrogen is likely to be a part of this idealistic future, and possibly an important part. A hydrogen molecule [H2] in the presence of oxygen can be converted to water with a release of heat and work. It is difficult to imagine a cleaner source of energy. However, there are challenges. To begin with, molecular hydrogen does not occur naturally in high concentrations; it is only 0.00005% of the air.1 Hydrogen is normally bound in other molecules, water and hydrocarbons being the most common. Unlike natural gas, molecular hydrogen is not found in large accumulations in geologic strata, either. This means that hydrogen is not a primary fuel source. Like electricity, it is a means for transmitting energy from primary fuel sources to users. Like electrical power, hydrogen must be produced and transported, although hydrogen has an additional attribute that makes it more attractive for some applications than electricity: it can be stored for later use.2 This feature makes it useful for powering vehicles and other portable devices. Current production of hydrogen is about 50 Mt/yr [55 million US tons/yr], mostly for industrial purposes in chemical and petrochemical applications. A world economy using hydrogen as a major energy carrier will require a tremendous increase in that volume, as well as a complex new infrastructure for transporting and delivering hydrogen to end users. This article discusses the global transition to a hydrogen economy and the roles oil and gas industry sectors might play over the next decades. Also described are some of the major technological barriers that must be overcome. What Is the Hydrogen Economy? The hydrogen economy is a system that uses hydrogen as a major carrier in the energy supply cycle. The term evokes a vision of energy usage in the future that is sustainable and environmentally friendly. That vision follows the historic trend toward using energy sources that produce less and less carbon as a by-product.3 Wood was a primary energy source for millennia, but its primacy was supplanted by coal in the late 1800s because coal has a greater energy density. Use of oil as a fuel Oilfield Review 1. See www.uigi.com/air.html (accessed April 18, 2005). 2. Electrical potential must be used as it is generated. To store this energy, it must be converted to another form, such as chemical potential in a battery, as gravitational potential in a pumped-water system or as hydrogen. A capacitor, which can store electrical potential, is impractical for widespread societal needs. 3. Nakićenović N: “Global Prospects and Opportunities for Methane in the 21st Century,” in Seven Decades with IGU. International Gas Union Publications, published jointly by International Systems and Communications Limited and International Gas Union (2003): 118–125. Spring 2005 80 60 Carbon intensity Source Carbon intensity, g/MJ Wood 29.9 Coal 25.8 Oil 20.1 Gas 15.3 35 30 25 Coal 40 20 Wood Oil 20 Carbon intensity, g/MJ 100 Share of global energy, % increased during the 1900s, surpassing coal as a global energy source in the 1960s. Natural gas use is now increasing in importance.4 This progression of energy sources has been accompanied by a decrease in the amount of carbon dioxide [CO2] produced to release a given quantity of energy as work or heat (right). One reason this proportion has decreased is the decreasing carbon-to-hydrogen (C/H) atomic ratio in the predominant fuel source.5 The ratio for coal is about 1.6 Oil has a ratio of about 0.5, and methane C/H ratio is exactly 0.25. Although this progression of fuel sources results in less CO2 per unit of energy released, the world consumption of energy has increased even more rapidly. As a result, the undesirable production of greenhouse-gas CO2 is expected to rise, contributing to global warming.7 The amount of CO2 generated annually is unlikely to decrease over the next few decades, because hydrocarbons will remain the prevalent fuel sources. To control atmospheric accumulation, the CO2 generated must be captured and stored.8 15 Gas Nuclear 0 1850 1900 1950 10 2000 Year > Decarbonization of energy sources. The carbon intensity in our major energy supplies has declined as the world moved from wood (gold) to coal (black) to oil (green) and now toward natural gas (red) as the predominant energy source. The amount of carbon produced (dashed black) declined with each change in primary energy source. The inset shows the amount of carbon produced per unit energy for these fuel sources. Nuclear energy is a small contributor to the energy supply. (Data from Nakićenović, reference 3.) 4. “A Dynamic Global Gas Market,” Oilfield Review 15, no. 3 (Autumn 2003): 4–7. 5. Wood does not follow the C/H ratio trend; its value of about 0.67 is less than coal, but its energy content is also less. The net result is that the production of CO2 per unit of energy is higher for wood than for the other fuel sources discussed here. 6. Killops SD and Killops VJ: “Long-Term Fate of Organic Matter in the Geosphere,” in An Introduction to Organic Geochemistry, 2nd edition. Malden, Massachusetts, USA: Blackwell Publishing (2004): 117–165. 7. For more on global warming: Cannell M, Filas J, Harries J, Jenkins G, Parry M, Rutter P, Sonneland L and Walker J: “Global Warming and the E&P Industry,” Oilfield Review 13, no. 3 (Autumn 2001): 44–59. 8. For more on carbon capture and storage: Bennaceur K, Gupta N, Sakurai S, Whittaker S, Monea M, Ramakrishnan TS and Randen T: “CO2 Capture and Storage—A Solution Within,” Oilfield Review 16, no. 3 (Autumn 2004): 44–61. 31 More importantly, fossil fuel resources are finite, and will eventually become prohibitively expensive to recover. As gasoline becomes more and more expensive in that distant future, some other portable energy source, such as hydrogen or batteries, will be needed.9 The apparent next step is to eliminate carbon from the energy source. Several green, or environmentally friendly, energy sources are available today, but their usage is not a major part of energy consumption. In 2001, fossil fuels provided 85.5% of world energy consumption, nuclear reactors provided about 6.5%, with other sources combined providing only 8%.10 US government projections indicate little production from sources other than fossil fuels and nuclear power in the USA through 2025 (below).11 Attention around the world has focused on the promise of the hydrogen molecule as the ultimate green fuel. With no carbon, its C/H ratio is zero: the end of the trend to less carbon in fuels. H2 can be burned to generate only water, heat and mechanical work, or it can be converted to water, heat and electrical work using a fuel cell (see “Fuel Cells: A Quiet Revolution,” page 34). One kilogram of H2 provides about the same power as 3.8 L [1 gal] of gasoline. Although its promise is great, technological limits currently make hydrogen uneconomic and impractical as an energy carrier.12 The hydrogen vehicles on the road today are for demonstration and testing projects; they are not commercially available. The cost for hydrogen production and delivery will have to improve by about a factor of four. Storage capacity on-board vehicles will have to improve by a factor of two to three. In addition, fuel cells to replace the internal combustion engine will have to improve by a factor of 4 to 5, with an improvement in service life by a factor of 2 to 3.13 The challenges include cost, durability, efficiency improvements and material embrittlement. International efforts in fundamental science aim to bridge these gaps. International Commitment Many nations are funding projects to move the world toward an environmentally friendly energy system. Two major thrusts are of particular interest to the oil and gas industry. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) seeks to mitigate the impact of fossil fuels on the environment. Second, efforts to make hydrogen a major energy carrier could radically change the energy industry, although its impact is probably decades in the future. There are initiatives to make other green energy sources more economical and practical. For example, wind farms and geothermal sources provide primary energy now, but their potential to provide a significant proportion of our energy needs in the near future is limited. Sources such as wind and solar radiation are intermittent. Hydrogen could provide a means for storing excess power from these sources for use in calm or cloudy weather. 100 Energy consumption, 1015 Btu/yr 10 Petroleum liquids Natural gas Coal Nuclear power Hydroelectric Wood and biomass 1 Geothermal Municipal solid waste Wind 0.1 Solar thermal Other 0.01 0.001 Solar photovoltaic 2002 2005 2010 Year 2015 2020 2025 > US energy consumption by source. Most of the US energy consumption over the next 20 years will come from fossil fuels: petroleum liquids (green), natural gas (red) and coal (black). Nuclear (dark blue), hydroelectric power (light blue) and wood and biomass sources (gold) are expected to remain at about the same levels as today. Other energy sources, particularly renewable sources, will remain small fractions of the total supply. (Data from “Annual Energy Outlook 2005,” reference 11.) 32 The fossil fuels, oil, natural gas and coal, will remain important primary sources of energy for much of the coming century. Currently, the most economic means for producing hydrogen is through a process known as steam reforming, which produces hydrogen from natural gas. The vast reserves of coal make it the likely next source for producing hydrogen through techniques of gasification, partial oxidation or autothermal reforming. Converting these fuels to hydrogen at centralized plants will allow carbon capture and storage (CCS), sometimes referred to as carbon sequestration. CCS will be more economical if done from large, centralized facilities, whether for generating electricity, producing hydrogen or other uses. The US government has a US$ 1 billion demonstration project called FutureGen with a 10-year goal to build a coal-based power plant that successfully generates electricity and hydrogen without undesirable emissions.14 In the European Union (EU), the similar 10-year HYPOGEN project commits (euro) =C1.3 billion for developing a zero-emissions power plant using fossil fuel as a large-scale test facility for producing hydrogen and electricity.15 Geologic storage of carbon dioxide in depleted oil or gas reservoirs, in unminable coal seams or in deep saline reservoirs is the most likely shortterm solution for CCS. Both FutureGen and HYPOGEN require an economical transport both of the fuel such as coal to the plant and of the CO2 by-product to a storage reservoir, possibly restricting locations of the plants. The EU also has a large-scale demonstration program to build an entire community with a hydrogen-based infrastructure. HYCOM is a 10-year, =C1.5 billion project running in parallel to the HYPOGEN project.16 The US Hydrogen Fuels Initiative has a goal to make fuel cell vehicles practical and costeffective for large numbers of Americans by 2020.17 The project provides US$ 1.2 billion to fund development of hydrogen, fuel-cell and infrastructure technologies needed to achieve this target. These huge projects are not the only initiatives. Many countries around the world are investing funds toward similar goals. In fact, the number of projects underway is so large, and it is increasing so rapidly, it is difficult to enumerate them all. Oilfield Review H2 production and distribution Direct H2 production from renewable sources; decarbonized H2 economy 2050 Hydrogenoriented economy 2050 n tio iza s s l a Increasing decarbonization of H2 production; renewable sources, ts rci tion ion 2040 efi me ca at H2 use in aviation fossil fuels with CCS, new nuclear power plants en com appli pplic b n te cell bile ary a o i a t iv l tra pr fue mo tion ne Fuel cells become dominant 2040 nd and - FC C sta pe a t s n technology in transport, in -F rke rd roge a a distributed power generation, gm ew hyd on n r i 2030 s and in microapplications Widespread H2 pipeline infrastructure lic scale ucti rt ea r b c In Pu rge- prod spo n a e L - H 2 tra rag o Interconnection of local H2 distribution grids; significant H2 production 2030 - H 2 2st H2 becomes primary fuel choice for FC vehicles H from renewable sources, including biomass gasification n o Significant growth in distributed power generation with ati H2 production from fossil fuels with CCS 2020 str e substantial penetration of FCs us on d m Local clusters of H2 distribution grids de n an tr s and ratio tion Second-generation on-board storage (long range) ts o Local clusters of H2 filling stations lee eff rch ene ibu 2020 ef te sea al g distr Low-cost, high-temperature FC systems; FCs commercial in microapplications h a c i H2 transport by road, and local H2 riv d re tric on, ;n sts FC vehicles competitive for passenger cars d p pplie elec rtati production at refueling stations by e n t 2010 d o a a d reforming natural gas and by iel es h, an nsp Atmospheric pressure hybrid SOFC systems commercial (<10 MW) t; f tiv earc icles , tra electrolysis n n e s e h n First H2 fleets; first-generation H2 storage pm nc tal re r ve ctio i o l H2 production by c n fo u ve 2010 bli e lls rod de Series production of FC vehicles for fleets (with direct H2 and on-board reforming) and other reforming natural gas Pu ndamel ce en p nd a g u transport (such as boats); FC for auxiliary power units and by electrolysis F - Fu dro g n i t y s 2000 -H Stationary low-temperature fuel cell systems (PEMFC) (<300 kW) , te h arc se Stationary high-temperature fuel cell systems (MCFC and SOFC) (<500 kW); H2 internal combustion engine Re Fossil fueldeveloped; demonstration fleets of FC buses 2000 based economy Stationary low-temperature FC systems for commercial niches (<50 kW) Fuel cell (FC) and H2 systems: development and deployment > European Union roadmap for implementing the hydrogen economy, including fuel cell development. Several organizations provide clearinghouses for information among the various groups. Two examples are the Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (CSLF) and the International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy (IPHE). The CSLF is an international organization focused on developing improved cost-effective technologies for CCS, including separating, capturing and transporting carbon dioxide for long-term safe storage.18 The IPHE serves as a mechanism to organize and implement effective, efficient and focused international research, development, demonstration and commercial utilization activities related to hydrogen and fuel cell technologies.19 Iceland provides an interesting laboratory for developing green energy. The country has no fossil energy resources, but has an abundance of geothermal energy and also has significant hydroelectric generating capacity. Since the energy crisis of the 1970s, Iceland has created an almost pollution-free infrastructure for stationary energy, such as industrial use and large power plants. For transport and for its fishing fleet, the government of Iceland envisions replacing fossil fuels with hydrogen and other alternative fuels.20 From 2001 through 2005, the European community funded ECTOS, a Spring 2005 =C7 million demonstration program of three H2 fuel cell buses and the related infrastructure in Iceland’s capital, Reykjavik. Many countries have committed to decadeslong plans, or roadmaps, to develop a hydrogenoriented economy. A complete infrastructure has to be developed, including hydrogen production, delivery and storage. More efficient means for using hydrogen in fuel cells are in development. The transition is potentially disruptive to society, so public education and outreach are important parts of these roadmaps. Roadmaps provide an integrated, systematic and systemic approach, to ensure coordination of changes throughout the infrastructure. The EU roadmap provides a rough time line for actions to move ahead (above). It foresees that, in the next decade, existing localized distribution networks (continued on page 36) 9. Conversion of natural gas to liquids may be an interim step. For more on gas-to-liquid conversion: “Turning Natural Gas to Liquid,” Oilfield Review 15, no. 3 (Autumn 2003): 32–37. 10. “International Energy Outlook 2004,” Table A2. Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (2004). Available at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo (accessed April 18, 2005). 11. “Annual Energy Outlook 2005,” Tables A1 and A17. Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (2005). Available at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo (accessed April 18, 2005). 12. “The Hydrogen Initiative.” American Physical Society Panel on Public Affairs. Available at www.aps.org/ public_affairs/popa/reports/index.cfm (accessed April 18, 2005). “Basic Research Needs for the Hydrogen Economy,” Report of the Basic Energy Sciences Workshop on Hydrogen Production, Storage and Use (May 13–15, 2003). Available at www.sc.doe.gov/bes/hydrogen.pdf (accessed April 18, 2005). Crabtree GW, Dresselhaus MS and Buchanan MV: “The Hydrogen Economy,” Physics Today 57, no. 12 (December 2004): 39–44. 13. See www.livepowernews.com/stories05/0331/003.htm (accessed April 14, 2005). 14. For information on FutureGen: www.fe.doe.gov/ programs/powersystems/futuregen/ (accessed April 25, 2005). 15. For information on HYPOGEN: Peteves SD, Tzimas E, Starr F and Soria A: “HYPOGEN Pre-Feasibility Study, Final Report,” document EUR 21512 EN, Joint Research Centre and Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (2005). Available at www.jrc.nl (accessed April 18, 2005). 16. For information on HYCOM: Peteves SD, Shaw S and Soria A: “HYCOM Pre-Feasibility Study, Final Report,” document EUR 21575 EN, Joint Research Centre and Institute for Energy (2005). Available at www.jrc.nl (accessed April 18, 2005). 17. For more on the US Hydrogen Fuels Initiative: www.eere. energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/presidents_ initiative.html (accessed April 18, 2005). 18. For more on CSLF: www.cslforum.org (accessed April 18, 2005). 19. For more on IPHE: www.iphe.net (accessed April 18, 2005). 20. For more on the Iceland vision for hydrogen: eng.umhverfisraduneyti.is/information (accessed April 18, 2005). 33 Fuel Cells: A Quiet Revolution Efforts to move the world toward a hydrogen economy include a reexamination of the means for converting hydrogen into energy. Hydrogen combusts, so it can be used as a fuel in an internal combustion engine, either alone or mixed with gasoline. It can also be used as a fuel in a turbine engine. However, considerable research and development now focus on a different mechanism, the fuel cell. A fuel cell, like a battery, uses electrochemical means to create electricity.1 Both types of devices can provide more power by stacking multiple cells. However, a battery stores a limited amount of energy in its chemicals, and once that energy is spent, the battery is dead.2 A fuel cell uses an external reservoir to continuously replenish the fuel. A fuel cell has two advantages over an internal combustion engine. Fuel cells have the potential to be significantly more efficient than conventional combustion engines. Some fuel cells can achieve 60% efficiency, much better than the 20% to 35% efficiency of a gasoline internal combustion engine. A fuel cell has no moving parts, although there are external pumps to supply the fuel. Name Conducting ion The second advantage is decreased pollution. An internal combustion engine run on hydrogen will not produce CO2. However, if air is used, the process can still produce oxides of nitrogen [NOx] in a high-temperature system or a combined-cycle system, which uses a fuel cell in combination with a turbine. A hydrogenpowered fuel cell normally produces only water, heat and electricity. The fuel, typically hydrogen, is supplied to the anode side of a fuel cell. Oxygen or air is supplied to the cathode side. Several types of electrolytes are available to separate the electrodes (below). The anode contains a catalyst, which splits hydrogen molecules and ionizes the atoms into electrons and protons [H+]. The liberated electrons provide the electrical output of a fuel cell. In some cells, the protons pass through the electrolyte to recombine with oxygen and electrons on the cathode side, forming water (next page, right). This is the reverse of water electrolysis, which is used to generate hydrogen from water and electricity. In other types of cells, negatively charged ions Operating temperature, °C Power density Disadvantages pass through the electrolyte from the cathode to the anode, forming water at the anode and completing the circuit. The catalyst in low-temperature cells usually contains platinum, which is an expensive material. Replacing platinum with a lower cost material in the catalyst is an active research subject. High-temperature fuel cells can use lower cost catalysts, such as nickel. The polymer electrolyte membrane—also called a proton exchange membrane—fuel cell (PEMFC), is the leading contender for use in passenger vehicles.3 It is lightweight, operates at low temperature, has a quick startup and uses a solid membrane, all of which are considered advantages for mass consumer operation. However, the platinum catalyst is expensive and makes the cell susceptible to small amounts of carbon monoxide [CO] in the fuel stream. The proton path through the electrolyte has to remain hydrated, so the temperature in the cell must remain below about 100°C [212°F], and temperatures below freezing can be a problem. Advantages Applications + 60 to 80 High Platinum catalyst; sensitive to CO poisoning; cannot run above dehydration temperature; slow reaction kinetics; not durable Fast startup; favorable power-to-weight ratio; low temperature; reduced corrosion and management problems Transportation, electric utility + 200 Medium High cost; large and heavy cells; low efficiency (37 to 42%); platinum catalyst Mature technology; 200 units in use; tolerant of impurities in H2 fuel Electric utility, transportation + 60 to 120 Medium Generates carbon; low efficiency; platinum catalyst Powered by methanol; few storage problems Small portable applications – 100 to 250 High Cannot tolerate CO2 Mature technology; stable operation for more than 8,000 operating hours; high efficiency (60%) Military, space and undersea applications 2– Greater than 650 Low Not durable; high temperature and corrosive electrolyte; needs CO2 to recycle Variety of catalysts (precious metals not needed); resistant to impurities; high efficiency (60%); external reformer not needed Natural gas and coal-based power plants 600 to 1,000 Medium to high Slow startup; requires thermal shielding; not durable Precious metals not needed; variety of catalysts; high efficiency (50 to 60%); external reformer not needed; resistant to poisoning; most sulfur-resistant fuel cell; fuel flexibility (including CO); solid electrolyte reduces corrosion and management problems Electric utility PEMFC Polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell H PAFC Phosphoric acid fuel cell H DMFC Direct methanol fuel cell H AFC Alkaline fuel cell OH MCFC Molten carbonate fuel cell CO3 SOFC Solid oxide fuel cell O 2– > Comparison of fuel cell types. 34 Oilfield Review Electron flow Space Electronics Specialty chemicals Basic chemicals e Load Water and waste heat (H2O) Excess fuel + H Glass Optical glass Heat treatment, fiber steel Laboratory Food, analysis sorbitol Heat treatment, stainless steel Food, fat and oils Fuel cells Glass polishing 10 100 1,000 m3/hr 10,000 Anode Refining for clean fuels 100,000 > Current use of hydrogen. Fuel cells, such as the Axane Roller Pac portable fuel cell (inset), use a very small proportion of the current hydrogen production. The predominant uses are for basic chemical production and for making fuels such as gasoline less polluting. Uses near the bottom of this chart are most likely to be supplied by tube trailers and cylinders. Those at the top are most likely to have a pipeline supply, and those in the middle are likely to have onsite generation. For large-scale, stationary applications such as power plants, the solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) is the most promising technology.4 The electrolyte is a nonporous ceramic that passes charged oxygen ions [O2-] from cathode to anode, generating water in the fuel discharge stream. The solid electrolyte allows more configurations than other cells: tubular or honeycomb in addition to the typical parallel-plate stack. Its high-temperature operation—about 600 to 1,000°C [1,112 to 1,832°F]—allows use of less expensive catalysts. Fuels other than pure hydrogen, including CO, also can be used at these high temperatures without externally reforming 1. For a comparison of oilfield batteries to fuel cells: Hensley D, Milewits M and Zhang W: “The Evolution of Oilfield Batteries,” Oilfield Review 10, no. 3 (Autumn 1998): 42–57. 2. Some batteries use the reverse of the electrochemical process to recharge, but the amount of energy available without recharging is limited by the capacity of the battery cells. 3. “Hydrogen and Fuel Cells—Review of National R&D Programs,” reference 35, main text. 4. “Hydrogen and Fuel Cells—Review of National R&D Programs,” reference 35, main text. 5. “Hydrogen and Fuel Cells—Review of National R&D Programs,” reference 35, main text. 6. “Hydrogen and Fuel Cells—Review of National R&D Programs,” reference 35, main text. 7. “Basic Research Needs for the Hydrogen Economy.” reference 12, main text. 8. See www.livepowernews.com/stories05/0331/003.htm (accessed April 14, 2005). Spring 2005 the fuels into hydrogen. It has high efficiency, about 60%, that can be boosted to 80% or more through effective use of heat generated during the process.5 The phosphoric acid fuel cell (PAFC) is one of the most mature technologies. Over 200 units are in use, mostly for stationary power generation, but some have been used to power city buses.6 Newer than the other types of fuel cell, the direct methanol fuel cell (DMFC) is a type of PEMFC that uses methanol rather than hydrogen as a fuel. Although the energy content of methanol is lower than hydrogen, dealing with a substance that is a liquid at room temperature is attractive from a storage and handling perspective. The release of carbon into the atmosphere is a drawback to this technology. Long-term durability is an issue for all fuel cells. The SOFC has the longest demonstrated lifetime, 20,000 hours, but that is half the desired lifetime for a stationary application, such as electric generation.7 A PEMFC for transportation application has achieved 2,200 hours.8 Replacing stacks containing the anode and cathode will be an expensive maintenance issue. The cost of fuel cells has kept them in niche applications (above). However, as hydrogen becomes more readily available to the general Cathode Hydrogen fuel (H2) Air supply (O2) Polymer electrolyte membrane Cathode reaction: + O2 + 4H + 4e 2H2O Anode reaction: + H2 2H + 2e Electron flow e Load - Excess fuel and water Unused gas 2– O Cathode Anode Air supply (O2) Hydrogen fuel (H2) Solid oxide electrolyte Anode reaction: 2– H2 + O H2O + 2e Cathode reaction: 2– O2 + 4e 2O > Fuel cells. A polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) is a low-temperature device that passes protons [H+] through a membrane, forming water on the cathode side (top). A solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) passes oxygen ions [O2-] through a ceramic membrane, forming water on the anode side (bottom). To increase the power output of a given type of cell, multiple units are combined in a stack. public, these niches will expand. DMFC technology is most likely for small-scale consumer appliances, such as laptop computers and cellular phones. Portable generators, such as the Axane system, which uses a PEMFC, are already on the market. 35 will expand, with clusters of H2 stations near these networks. Fuel cell technologies will improve power delivery for both stationary use, such as power plants, and mobile use in vehicles. The EU roadmap predicts that mobile use will expand slowly from fleet transportation to personal vehicles. Meanwhile, localized networks of hydrogen delivery systems will expand, with a widespread pipeline infrastructure developed in the next 20 to 30 years. Fossil fuels will be used, but with CCS, according to the roadmap. Later still, renewable sources and a new generation of nuclear reactors that generate electricity and hydrogen will assume greater importance. Ultimately, about 50 years from now, the roadmaps predict an economy based on renewable primary energy sources with hydrogen as a major component of the energy delivery system. The push from governments does not guarantee that a hydrogen economy will develop, but it provides an important impetus toward their goals. Several industries will be impacted directly by the transition to a hydrogen economy, and businesses in these industries are taking steps in the same direction. Improved fuel cells are under development in many companies and in universities and research institutions. Several automobile manufacturers have small fleets of demonstration vehicles on the road. Some use fuel cells; others operate using a hydrogen internal combustion engine. The Pierre Elliot Trudeau Airport in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, has initiated a hydrogen project with Air Liquide as one of the participants. The airport authority plans to convert all its utility and service vehicles to fuel cells or internal combustion engines that run on hydrogen. Gas companies and utility companies are researching ways to store hydrogen. Hydrogen storage tanks capable of withstanding high pressure must be developed for mobile applications, such as in automobiles. These companies and others are also working on niche uses for hydrogen fuel cells, such as for wheelchairs, scooters and mobile hydrogen power packs. Schlumberger, ExxonMobil, GE and Toyota committed US$ 225 million to the Global Climate and Energy Project (GCEP), which is operated by Stanford University.21 The 10-year program is building a diverse portfolio of technology projects aimed at reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions. It focuses on high-risk projects with high potential to fundamentally change the technology, as well as systemic analysis of ways to improve the environment. The program got under way in 2002. Some of the current projects at Stanford and elsewhere include developing technologies for lower temperature fuel cells, studying microbes for producing H2, investigating the fundamentals of catalyst-doped nanotubes and working on geologic storage of CO2. Shell and other companies that market gasoline directly to consumers have opened a few hydrogen-refueling stations in conjunction with demonstration-vehicle fleets. The exploration and production (E&P) sector of our industry has an important role to play in moving toward a hydrogen economy. The E&P Business and the Transition to Hydrogen The HYPOGEN and FutureGen programs envision the next stage of hydrogen production as coming from centralized plants that use fossil fuels, including coal or gas. CCS is a major part of these plans.22 Several carbon storage options have been proposed. Chemically binding the carbon, either using limestone ponds or by mineralization, is unproven on a large scale, and it is likely to be expensive. Storage in the ocean, either by dissolution or as a liquid or hydrate at depth, is an established technology, but laboratory tests indicate it causes trauma to marine life.23 Little is known about the long-term impact of increased Worldwide CO2 Storage Potential Option Worldwide capacity, Gt carbon Depleted oil and gas reservoirs 100s Unminable coal seams 10s to 100s Deep saline reservoirs 100s to 1,000s For comparison: Worldwide anthropogenic CO2 emissions (McKee) 7 Gt/yr carbon CO2 injection for EOR (Gielen) 12 Mt/yr carbon > Estimates of worldwide CO2 storage potential. (Data on CO2 injection for EOR from Gielen, reference 24; other data from McKee, reference 25.) 36 CO2 concentration on the ecosystem.24 Currently, the most practical option is geologic storage in depleted oil and gas reservoirs, unminable coal seams and deep saline aquifers (below left).25 Any method of CO2 storage must be a longterm solution that avoids leakage of CO2 back into the atmosphere. The E&P and oilfield services industries, and research laboratories can provide considerable experience to the CCS effort through their understanding of geologic formations and fluid flow in them. The industry has the technology to identify structures, access formations and operate the surface and subsurface facilities to inject CO2. Monitoring the operation and the migration of CO2 is also a part of this expertise. CO2 can be injected into depleted oil and gas reservoirs. Generally, the original reservoir seal will also contain the CO2 gas, up to the original pressure of the reservoir. In addition, CO2 may have a benefit as an enhanced recovery sweep gas. Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects with CO2 have been under way since 1972, starting in the Permian basin, USA.26 Injected CO2 displaces oil to producing wells. In addition, under miscible conditions some CO2 goes into solution with the oil and some oil fractions go into the CO2 phase.27 These mixtures displace oil efficiently, increasing recovery. In either case, a portion of the CO2 remains in the formation. Now, the desire to decrease greenhouse-gas emissions encourages a reexamination of CO2 EOR to both improve oil recovery and to store CO2 underground. A cross-border EOR project between the USA and Canada is the first designed specifically for CO2 storage. Anthropogenic, or man-made, CO2 from a coal gasification plant in North Dakota, USA, is transported by pipeline for 325 km [202 miles] and injected into the Weyburn field in Saskatchewan, Canada.28 The Dakota Gasification Company operates the synfuels plant, and EnCana Corporation now operates Weyburn field. About 3 million m3 [106 million ft3] of gas— 96% CO2 with traces of hydrogen sulfide, nitrogen and hydrocarbons—are transported and injected daily. CO2 migration has been modeled using ECLIPSE 300 reservoir simulation software, and the results match time-lapse seismic surveys.29 Passive seismic monitoring has also detected microseismic events that are associated with CO2 injection, providing another monitoring method.30 Enhanced recovery from natural gas reservoirs has been proposed and modeled, but to date, there have been no field projects.31 CO2 in both liquid and gaseous states is denser than methane, so a gravity-stabilized injection scheme could be used. Oilfield Review CO2 has been used to improve recovery from coalbed methane reservoirs. Because CO2 has a greater affinity for adsorption by coal than does methane, it will displace methane; in addition, coal can adsorb at least twice as much CO2 as methane.32 Enhanced coalbed methane recovery is limited to coal seams that will not be mined, to avoid future safety concerns. The greatest potential for geologic CO2 storage is in deep saline aquifers. While coal seams and gas and oil reservoirs are not present everywhere in the world, saline aquifers are common in most sedimentary basins (right). The amount of aquifer volume that can be filled with CO2 is not yet established, but estimates are that sufficient volume exists to hold hundreds of years of CO2 emissions.33 In 1996, Statoil began a project to store CO2 that is produced with natural gas from the Sleipner field.34 The CO2 is injected into the Utsira formation, which lies above the productive Heimdal formation. The Saline Aquifer CO2 Storage (SACS) project and a subsequent SACS2 project, both funded by the European Commission’s Thermie Program, developed best practices in the research, monitoring and simulation of CO2 migration in subsurface storage aquifers using the Sleipner injection as a basis. This work continues in an EU project, CO2STORE. Since its inception, this operation has injected more than 7 Mt [7.7 million US tons] of CO2. The project will continue until 2020. The energy carriers, hydrogen and electricity, can both be generated from natural gas, and the potential exists for the E&P industry to move its production of these carriers closer to the wellhead. Particularly in places where a natural gas network does not exist, wellhead conversion of natural gas into electricity using a fuel cell might be economic. CCS also could be implemented locally. Steps toward a hydrogen economy are just beginning, and the final form of a hydrogenbased future is yet to be determined. E&P companies and the service industry are in unique positions to help craft that future. Technological Marathon The advances necessary to achieve a hydrogen economy are enormous, particularly to replace current gasoline or diesel internal combustion engines for personal transportation. The roadmaps prepared by the USA, the EU, Japan and other countries recognize the challenges, and have extended time lines of about 50 years for implementation of a hydrogen economy.35 Scientists do not see this as a sprint, but as a Spring 2005 > Major onshore (green) and offshore (blue) sedimentary basins. The brown line indicates the 1,000-m [3,280-ft] water-depth contour. marathon with a long series of hurdles requiring fundamental breakthroughs along the way. Extensive progress in fundamental materials science is essential. The focuses for technology development are production, transport and distribution, storage and safety, and costeffective and reliable fuel cells. Production—Hydrogen, like electricity, must be generated. Almost all of the hydrogen now produced is for industrial use: ammonia plants use about 57.5%, refineries use 27.4% and methanol producers use 9.7%.36 A dramatic increase in production will be necessary to meet the goals of government programs to create a hydrogen economy. Production in the USA will have to increase from about 11 Mt/yr [12 million US ton/yr] to 265 Mt/yr [292 million US ton/yr] to satisfy the projected transportation needs in the USA in 2020.37 A recent study assumes that there will be more than 6,000,000 hydrogen-powered cars in Europe by 2020.38 Japan’s goal is to have 5,000,000 fuel cell vehicles on the road by 2020, along with a stationary fuel cell cogeneration system with 21. For more on GCEP: gcep.stanford.edu (accessed April 18, 2005). 22. Orr FM Jr: “Storage of Carbon Dioxide in Geologic Formations,” Journal of Petroleum Technology 56, no. 9 (September 2004): 90–97. 23. Ishimatsu A, Kikkawa T, Hayashi M, Lee K-S, Murata K, Kumagai E and Kita J: “Acute Physiological Impacts of CO2 Ocean Sequestration on Marine Animals,” paper C2-3, presented at the 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technology, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada (September 5–9, 2004). Available at www.ghgt7.ca/papers_posters.php?session_id=C2-3 (accessed April 18, 2005). 24. Gielen D: “The Future Role of CO2 Capture and Storage— Results of the IEA–ETP Model,” IEA/EET Working Paper EET/2003/04 (November, 2003). Available at www.iea.org/dbtw-wpd/textbase/papers/2003/eet04.pdf (accessed April 18, 2005). 25. McKee B: “Solutions for the 21st Century—Zero Emissions Technologies for Fossil Fuels,” Technology Status Report, International Energy Agency, Committee on Energy Research and Technology, Working Party on Fossil Fuels, 2002. Available at www.iea.org/dbtw-wpd/textbase/ papers/2002/tsr_layout.pdf (accessed April 18, 2005). 26. For more on CO2 EOR projects: www.co2captureand storage.info/project_summaries/23.htm (accessed April 18, 2005). 27. Jarrell PM, Fox CE, Stein MH and Webb SL: Practical Aspects of CO2 Flooding, SPE Monograph Volume 22 (2002). 28. Bennaceur et al, reference 8. 29. Bennaceur et al, reference 8. For more on time-lapse seismic evaluation: Aronsen HA, Osdal B, Dahl T, Eiken O, Goto R, Khazanehdari J, Pickering S and Smith P: “Time Will Tell: New Insights from Time-Lapse Seismic Data,” Oilfield Review 16, no. 2 (Summer 2004): 6–15. 30. Bennaceur et al, reference 8. 31. Oldenburg CM and Benson SM: “Carbon Sequestration with Enhanced Gas Recovery: Identifying Candidate Sites for Pilot Study,” presented at the First National Conference on Carbon Sequestration, Washington, DC, May 14–17, 2001. Available at www.netl.doe.gov/ publications/proceedings/01/carbon_seq/2a4.pdf (accessed April 18, 2005). 32. Peteves et al, reference 15: 55. 33. Gielen, reference 24. 34. Bennaceur et al, reference 8. 35. For an overview of hydrogen economy efforts in different nations: “Hydrogen and Fuel Cells—Review of National R&D Programs,” Paris: International Energy Agency and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2004. 36. Suresh B, Schlag S and Inoguchi Y: “CEH Marketing Research Report—Hydrogen.” Chemical Engineering Handbook and SRI Consulting, August 2004. 37. “Basic Research Needs for the Hydrogen Economy,” reference 12: 16. 38. For more on hydrogen stations in Europe: www.msnbc. msn.com/id/7024047/ (accessed April 14, 2005). 37 Baton Rouge LOUISIANA Houston TEXAS Bayport Freeport Gul exico f of M 0 Corpus Christi 150 0 100 0 Pipeline Hydrogen plant Hydrogen/CO plant 0 50 25 300 450 km 200 300 miles 100 km Rozenburg 50 miles THE NETHERLANDS Bergen-op-Zoon Terneuzen Antwerp BELGIUM Feluy Isbergues Charleroi FRANCE Waziers > Hydrogen networks. Air Liquide operates hydrogen pipelines in northern Europe and the US Gulf coast, part of the company’s 1,700-km [1,060-mile] worldwide network. This is about 10% of all the hydrogen pipelines in the world. Plants in Antwerp, Belgium, and Bayport, Texas, each produce more than 100,000 m3/hr [629,000 bbl/hr] of hydrogen from natural gas. Most hydrogen produced at these plants is used to remove polluting sulfur from gasoline and diesel fuel. 10 GW of capacity.39 Shell Hydrogen estimates a network of hydrogen filling stations would cost about US$ 20 billion each for the USA and Europe, and about US$ 6 billion for Japan. The company indicates that necessary renewal of the current retail network over the same period of time also will be a major investment. Currently, the most cost-effective means of producing hydrogen is steam reforming of methane. However, hydrogen production through steam reforming neither eliminates carbon dioxide production nor addresses the finite resource of hydrocarbon fuels. Production from coal is considered the next step, but like 38 production from methane, CCS must be included to achieve reductions in greenhouse gases. Hydrogen can be generated from water and electricity through electrolysis, the reverse of the process used in a fuel cell. Electrolysis loses 10% to 30% of the input energy.40 If the cost of the primary power is low enough, this could be a reasonable means of generating hydrogen. Off-peak hydroelectric power, for example at night when electricity usage is lower, is inexpensive enough to make hydrogen generation potentially cost-effective in some areas.41 Other primary sources of power include wind farms and solar power. Biomass can also be used for hydrogen generation. Although carbon is part of the process, this is considered a carbon-neutral option, since the CO2 is taken up in the next generation of biomaterials. If combined with CCS at the generation plant, this option could engender a net decrease in atmospheric CO2. Of course, this option also dedicates a large surface area somewhere for growth of the biomaterial. It is unclear whether conversion from electricity generated by nonpolluting sources to hydrogen is an efficient path for society. The energy loss through electrolysis is not regained in other efficiencies from hydrogen usage. It is Oilfield Review arguably more efficient to use electricity directly or for charging batteries that power automobiles, rather than generating hydrogen.42 This would require significant improvements in battery technology, including decreasing recharging times, decreasing battery weight and disposing of old batteries. Of greater interest are hydrogen production methods that are in the laboratory stage of development. Direct conversion of sunlight to hydrogen, without an intermediate step of generating electricity, is being investigated through new nanoscale and biological processes. Water can also be split into hydrogen and oxygen at very high temperatures, termed thermolysis, which may become possible in solar collectors operating above 500°C [932°F], or in the next generation of high-temperature nuclear reactors.43 Such reactor technology is still a few decades away, and its implementation must overcome public reluctance to build nuclear plants. Transport and distribution—Hydrogen can be generated at or near the point of use, or it can be generated at a centralized location and transported. Today, as much as 96% of hydrogen production is used locally. The USA has the most developed market for merchant hydrogen—that which is transported for sale—with just over 15% of the production transported to another site.44 Depending on the method of production, the hydrogen may contain impurities, such as carbon monoxide [CO] or CO2. For some end uses, the hydrogen may need to be conditioned to remove such impurities. Although small amounts of hydrogen are transported by cylinder or in bulk, most merchant hydrogen moves through pipelines. Localized clusters of hydrogen pipelines have been installed in several industrialized areas (previous page). There are currently 10,000 miles [16,100 km] of hydrogen pipelines in the world; the longest one extends over 500 miles [800 km] in northern Europe.45 The cost of typical, 12-in. diameter hydrogen pipelines today is about US$ 0.5 million to US$ 1.5 million, which is roughly the same as equivalent natural gas pipelines. Hydrogen pipelines with large diameter, such as 30 in., may be necessary to service an extensive transportation infrastructure. Such pipelines are expected to cost more than equivalent natural gas pipelines: about 50% more for materials that resist hydrogen embrittlement and 25% more for labor due to hydrogen-specific welding.46 Cost will be a major factor in extending this distribution network from existing facilities and building new pipeline networks. Taking just two Spring 2005 Hydrogen Methane Propane Molecular weight (u) Property 2.02 16.04 44.06 ~107 Gasoline Density (kg/m3) at normal conditions 0.084 0.651 1.87 4.4 Buoyancy (density with respect to air) 0.07 0.55 1.52 3.4 to 4.0 Diffusion coefficient (cm2/s) 0.61 0.16 0.12 0.05 Lean flammability limit in air (% by volume) 4.1 5.3 2.1 1.0 Rich flammability limit in air (% by volume) 75 15 10 7.8 Minimum ignition energy (mJ) 0.02 0.29 0.26 0.24 Minimum self-ignition energy (K) 858 813 760 501 to 744 Lean detonability limit in air (% by volume) 18 6.3 3.1 1.1 Rich detonability limit in air (% by volume) 59 13.5 7.0 3.3 Explosion energy (kg equivalent TNT per m3 of vapor) 2.02 7.02 20.2 44.2 > Selected physical properties of hydrogen, methane, propane and gasoline. parts of the world as examples, about 180,000 filling stations will need to be converted to hydrogen in the USA and about 135,000 in Europe. Some of these will be on a pipeline network, but others, perhaps many others, will generate hydrogen locally. A safe and acceptable means for dispensing hydrogen into vehicles or for personal use must be developed. It has to be inexpensive, convenient, and above all, safe. Air Liquide has developed technology to rapidly transfer large quantities of hydrogen at 5,000 psi [35 MPa]. The technology is used in the Clean Urban Transit in Europe (CUTE) program and other places. The buses in Iceland, made by DaimlerChrysler, have compressed hydrogen in cylinders on the roof. Refilling these tanks takes about 6 to 10 minutes, giving the buses a range of about 385 km [240 miles].47 Storage—Hydrogen can be stored as a compressed gas, as a liquid, or as a metal or chemical hydride. Of these, liquid hydrogen has the highest energy density.48 However, it is still about one-third of the volumetric value compared to gasoline and one-quarter of gasoline’s gravimetric energy density.49 About one-third of the energy content is lost in liquefaction.50 For safety reasons and to avoid pressure buildup, the hydrogen gas must be allowed to bleed off, so liquid hydrogen is not a viable solution for long-term storage in mobile applications. Several metal or chemical hydrides are under investigation for storing hydrogen. The advantage of this method is its safety and stability in comparison with liquid or compressed gas storage. However, getting hydrogen into the hydride in a timely way—such as a three- to five-minute fillup at a filling station—is not yet possible, and getting it out currently requires heating the hydride to a high temperature. The weight of current hydride substrates and their container is much greater than the weight of stored hydrogen. Developing means for localized storage is the greatest hurdle to overcome for mobile uses in personal vehicles. Safety—Today, trained personnel use hydrogen safely in industrial settings. Expanding into use by the general public will involve risks that must be mitigated. However, handling methane, propane or gasoline also involves risks that have been mitigated and are now understood by the public (above). 39. “Hydrogen and Fuel Cells—Review of National R&D Programs,” reference 35. 40. Mazza P and Hammerschlag R: “Carrying the Energy Future—Comparing Hydrogen and Electricity for Transmission, Storage and Transportation,” Institute for Lifecycle Environmental Assessment, Seattle, Washington, USA (June 2004). 41. Mazza and Hammerschlag, reference 40. 42. Mazza and Hammerschlag, reference 40. 43. “Basic Research Needs for the Hydrogen Economy,” reference 12: 16. 44. Suresh et al, reference 36. 45. Simbeck D and Chang E: “Hydrogen Supply: Cost Estimate for Hydrogen Pathways—Scoping Analysis,” National Renewable Energy Laboratory paper NREL/SR–540–32525 (July 2002): 21. 46. Parker N: “Using Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline Costs to Estimate Hydrogen Pipeline Costs,” Institute of Transportation Studies paper UCD-ITS-RR-04-35 (December 1, 2004). Available at www.its.ucdavis.edu/ publications/2004/UCD-ITS-RR-04-35.pdf (accessed April 18, 2005). 47. Doyle A: “Iceland’s Hydrogen Buses Zip Toward Oil-Free Economy,” The Detroit News (January 14, 2005). Available at www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/ 0501/14/autos-60181.htm (accessed April 18, 2005). 48. The energy density referred to here is the standard heat of combustion per unit mass. 49. Crabtree et al, reference 12. 50. “National Hydrogen Energy Roadmap,” based on the results of the National Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Workshop, Washington, DC, US Department of Energy (April 2–3, 2002). Available at www.eere.energy.gov/ hydrogenandfuelcells/pdfs/national_h2_roadmap.pdf (accessed April 18, 2005). 39 > Shell hydrogen station and fuel cell car. This station in Washington, DC, has both gasoline pumps and a hydrogen pump (top). The General Motors demonstration car has a hydrogen fuel cell under the hood (bottom). The version of this car with a 70-MPa [10,000-psi] compressed-hydrogen tank has a range of about 270 km [168 miles]. (Photographs courtesy of Shell Hydrogen BV.) Hydrogen is considerably less dense than air. In addition, it diffuses in air more rapidly than the fuels discussed here. From a safety perspective, these facts mean that leaked hydrogen rises rapidly and disperses, as long as it is not in an enclosed space. However, a car with windows and doors closed is an enclosed space, so the passenger compartment of a vehicle will have to be protected from leaks. Hydrogen is odorless, making leak detection difficult, but so long as sufficient oxygen is available, it is nontoxic. The effects of significant quantities of hydrogen leaked into the atmosphere over the long term are unknown, but the effects on 40 climate, air pollution and the ozone layer are under study by a GCEP-funded group. Compared with methane, propane and gasoline, the concentration range for flammability of hydrogen in air is broader. The lower limit of concentration for ignition is 20% less than methane’s limit, that is, less hydrogen is required in an air mix to ignite. In addition, the minimum energy required for ignition is 15 times less than that of methane. As an added safety concern, a hydrogen flame is practically invisible. Hydrogen sensors are needed to provide warning of hazardous situations. The explosive limits for hydrogen are also different from methane, propane and gasoline. These fuels detonate with much leaner mixtures: at least triple the amount of hydrogen is required to detonate. However, hydrogen can detonate at much richer mixes than the other fuels. Mitigating this risk is the fact that considerably lower energy is involved in a hydrogen explosion: a gasoline vapor explosion carries 22 times more energy. There is an additional risk associated with storing hydrogen as a compressed gas. Hydrogenpowered cars on the road use tanks at 5,000 or 10,000 psi [35 or 70 MPa]. The hydrogen tank and Oilfield Review all high-pressure fittings must be reliable and failure-proof to avoid a potentially explosive release of pressure. Proper maintenance and verification of the storage system are critical. This is particularly significant in personal vehicles, which generally are not operated and maintained by trained professionals. Both technological improvements and a massive public education program are needed to achieve the level of safety that will be required for largescale, nonindustrial uses of hydrogen. Hydrogen embrittlement is a different kind of risk than the flammability and explosive risks common to fossil fuels. Because the molecule is so small, it migrates easily along microcracks in vessels. This expands and extends the cracks, weakening the material. With enough damage, the vessel can fail below its yield stress. Specific alloys, plating or coating processes are employed to avoid hydrogen embrittlement, as well as controlling the amount of residual hydrogen in steel and the amount picked up in processing. The challenge is to achieve these goals as the number of hydrogen containers increases and as they are used by untrained people. All fuels are potentially hazardous, and hydrogen is no exception. Making a transition from hydrogen handled only by trained experts to handling by the general population will require public acceptance and time to become familiar with this new fuel, just as has been done for other new fuels, such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). Safety underpins all other issues. Making hydrogen production, distribution and use safe for widespread public use through continual development is only the first part. Governments will need to set codes and standards for handling hydrogen in nonindustrial settings. Governments and companies will also have to educate the public about the proper use and handling of hydrogen. Driving Toward Greener Pastures Hydrogen-powered vehicles are the dream of those advocating a hydrogen economy. Small demonstration fleets, including both buses and passenger vehicles, are on the road in several places around the world. In operation, they produce only a trail of water vapor. 51. “GM in Fuel Cell Deal with Government,” CNNMoney (March 30, 2005). Available at money.cnn.com/2005/03/30/ news/fortune500/gm_fuelcell.reut/index.htm (accessed April 18, 2005). 52. Doyle, reference 47. 53. “Washington Station Offers Gas, Snacks and Hydrogen,” The New York Times, November 11, 2004: C6. Spring 2005 These vehicles are not yet ready for purchase by average motorists. General Motors Corporation recently announced a US$ 88 million shared-cost project with the US Department of Energy to develop, build and deploy 40 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.51 Other demonstration cars have reportedly cost US$ 3 to 4 million to build. The DaimlerChrysler demonstration buses in Iceland that run on hydrogen cost about =C1.25 million, which is about three to four times the cost of a diesel-powered bus.52 Improvements in technology and mass production are required to bring these costs down. These demonstration vehicles are fueled at specially built hydrogen filling stations. A Shell station in Washington, DC, added one hydrogen pump to a gasoline filling station at a reported cost of US$ 2 million.53 The costs of both hydrogen-powered automobiles and the pumping stations to fill them are expected to decline over time. This will result from both technological improvements and economies of scale as production moves from building individual items to mass production. The cost of hydrogen should eventually reach the current equivalent of US$ 2/kg to US$ 4/kg. Shell is taking a step-by-step approach toward a commercial hydrogen mass market. The first step was stand-alone projects with restricted access. Only trained personnel have access to the equipment, and industrial standards of safety are applied. Projects in this category include depots for small fleets of hydrogen-fueled buses. The second-generation sites have public access that is separate from existing gasoline stations. Shell opened a station in 2003 that generates hydrogen from water for the three city buses operating in Reykjavik as part of the ECTOS project. Current projects, such as the one in Washington, DC, are in the third step, which fully integrates hydrogen with traditional fueling at one station (previous page). Shell is initiating the fourth step, mininetworks of stations involving partnerships among multiple energy companies and governments. These networks will service fleets of 100 or more vehicles. In the fifth step, occurring in the time period of 2010 to 2020, the mininetworks will be connected with corridors of hydrogen fueling stations, and service will be added to areas lacking stations. Several highway corridors have been designated for hydrogen demonstrations by government and private entities, for example, in California and Florida, USA, British Columbia, Canada, and Germany. Despite these activities, a world based on a hydrogen economy is not a foregone conclusion. Companies involved in developing these technologies and bringing them to market recognize the hurdles ahead. A different technological solution to controlling greenhouse-gas emissions and the eventual decline of fossil fuel reserves may develop. The future energy supply is likely to be a mixture of many sources, including fossil fuels, nuclear and green energy, with hydrogen and electricity as carriers. Eventually, perhaps after 20 or 30 years, the free market will decide based on economics and quality of life issues, such as control of greenhouse gases. As the world moves toward the next stage, companies will continue to advance the technologies, and they will continue to evaluate the economics. Comparing alternatives requires that they be viewed in a systemic fashion. Within the discussion of a hydrogen economy, this has sometimes been referred to as a well-to-wheel framework. What is the cost of delivering a certain amount of energy, starting with the cost of infrastructure for its acquisition and adding material costs, conditioning, transport, storage, delivery, usage and finally disposition of unwanted by-products? Thus, if society requires zero emissions of CO2 or other pollutants, those costs should be figured into all scenarios. New infrastructure must be included in the appropriate scenarios, perhaps a hydrogen delivery system in some scenarios or CCS in others. Eventually, dominance by oil as the primary source of energy will be supplanted by something else. Its first replacement will probably be natural gas. The next one may be coal with CCS, nuclear power or some combination of renewable sources. While hydrogen is not and will not be an energy source, its use with fuel cells may make it an important energy carrier in synergy with electricity. —MAA 41