March 2016 ISG Meeting Who We Are Our Vision Our Values Enriching lives through a safe sustainable energy future. Our Mission Working together to deliver safe, reliable, and innovative energy solutions that create value for our customers, communities, employees and investors. Total Assets (2015): $5.3 billion What We Do NorthWestern Energy provides electricity and natural gas to approximately 701,000 customers in Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska. We have generated and distributed electricity in South Dakota and distributed natural gas in South Dakota and Nebraska since 1923 and have generated and distributed electricity and distributed natural gas in Montana since 2002. Approximately 27,750 square miles of electric service and 9,405 miles of natural gas service in Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska. 701,000 Customers • • 422,500 electric 278,500 natural gas Total owned generation • • MT – 412 MW – regulated (includes 150 MW (regulation services)) SD – 376 MW (baseload) – regulated Conceptual Layout Some OVERVIEW Reminders Table of Contents Some Basic Overview - Mike and Curt (a few reminders) • Gas System Overview Gas System Fundamentals NorthWestern’s Gas System Missouri Missouri Missouri River River Missouri Missouri MissouriRiver River River River Clark Clark ClarkFork Fork Fork River River River Ryan Ryan Ryan Ryan Ryan Ryan Flathead Flathead Flathead Lake Lake Flathead Flathead FlatheadLake Lake Lake Lake Fort Fort FortPeck Peck Peck PeckLake Lake Lake Lake Fort Fort Fort Peck Peck Lake Lake Morony Morony Morony Morony Morony Morony Rainbow Rainbow Rainbow Rainbow Rainbow Rainbow Black Eagle Cochrane Cochrane Cochrane Cochrane Cochrane Cochrane Kerr Kerr Kerr Kerr Kerr Kerr Great Great GreatFalls Falls Falls Falls Great Great Great Falls Falls Holter • Electric System Overview Electric System Fundamentals NorthWestern’s Electric System Thompson Thompson Thompson Thompson Thompson Thompson Missoula Missoula Missoula Missoula Missoula Missoula Yellowstone Yellowstone Yellowstone Yellowstone Yellowstone Yellowstone River River River Glendive Glendive Glendive Glendive Glendive Glendive Spion Kop Hauser Hauser Hauser Hauser Hauser Hauser Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Falls Dave Gates Colstrip MONTANA Helena Helena Helena Helena Helena Helena Missouri Missouri MissouriRiver River River River Missouri Missouri Missouri River River Butte Butte Butte Butte Butte Butte Colstrip Colstrip Colstrip Colstrip Colstrip Colstrip Yellowstone Yellowstone Yellowstone River River Yellowstone Yellowstone YellowstoneRiver River River River Madison Madison MadisonRiver River River River Madison Madison Madison River River Billings Billings Billings Billings Billings Billings Madison Madison Madison Madison Madison Madison • Infrastructure Programs – Current DSIP – Development and Review Transmission Investment Where to go from here… Mystic Mystic Mystic Mystic Mystic Mystic Hebgen NWE Hydro Facilities NWE Gas Facilities NWE Coal Facilities NWE Wind Facilities Transmission Organizational Chart NEW Vice President-Transmission Mike Cashell Director – Substation/Relay Operations Jim Krusemark Director – Transmission Line Engineering and Regional Planning Emmett Riordan Director – Support Services Danny Kaluza Director – Grid Operations Casey Johnston (dual report to VP Distribution) Director – Project Management - Projects Tom Pankratz Director – Gas Transmission and Storage Marc Mullowney Manager – Regional Transmission Policy Ray Brush 6 335 employees Distribution Organizational Chart NEW Vice President -- Distribution Curt Pohl General Manager – Operations Jason Merkel Director – Project Management Blain Nichols (DSIP Project Manager) General Manager – Construction Mike Schmit Director – Performance Management Carolyn Loos Director – Asset Management John Carmody Director – Organizational Development Mike O’Neil Director – Business Development and Strategy Support Reed Mckee Director – Safety Barry O’Leary Approx.. 700 employees 7 Committed to safety (update slide) NorthWestern Energy Company OSHA Recordable Incidence Rates Lost Time 3.50 Other Recordable 3.00 2.50 1.15 0.98 0.96 1.07 2.00 0.87 0.52 0.60 1.36 1.27 1.50 1.00 1.94 1.83 1.57 1.71 1.41 0.50 0.00 2009 8 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD Our safety strategy • • Continued Focus and Refinement on Safety Plans – Involvement at all levels, particularly the field Continued Utilization of HPI training and implementing HPI techniques – Currently 422 employees trained in the 8 hour session – Currently 133 employees trained as practitioners, 32 hour session 9 Utility Capital Spend As other utilities cut back capital spending during recession and following, NWE capital continued to grow significantly. 10 Operating Expense Even with the largest expense contingencies ever included in 2015, operating expenses continue to increase year over year. CAGR 2004-2015F: O&M Expense (including DSIP) = 4.2% and A&G Expense = 1.8% 11 O&M expenses in 2004 and 2005 exclude reorganization fees of $41.2M and $7.6M, respectively O&M expenses in 2006 exclude Ammondson verdict of $19M O&M expenses in 2012 excludes MSTI write off of $24M O&M expenses in 2013, 2014 and 2015F excludes Hydro Transaction related expenses of $4.4M, $2.4M and $0.2M respectively A&G expenses in 2015F exclude insurance recovery of $20.8M Volumetric Growth Customer growth rates have declined significantly since 2008 due largely to economic conditions. However we have seen an uptick in all segments except MT Electric. Overall, we are forecasting growth rates of approximately 1%. While this is certainly a decline from the growth rates we saw 710 years ago, we are still seeing growth which is better than the flat or even declining customer counts some utilities are experiencing. 12 Conceptual Layout Natural Gas System Overview Natural Gas Basics Primarily Methane with a small percentage of other Hydrocarbons (I.e. ethane, butane, propane etc.) and other impurities. Odorless in natural state (odorant is added at Transmission System) – Code requires – readily detectable at 20% of the lower explosive limit. • About 0.8 – 1.0% Gas in the atmosphere Lighter than air. – Specific Gravity of about 0.6 or about 60% the weight of Air Burning Characteristics – Gas Burns in the 5% - 15% gas to air ratio. • 4-5% considered lower explosive limit (LEL) • 15% considered Upper explosive limit (UEL) 14 Primary Assets Regulator Stations – Equipment stations that allow for changes in operating pressures on the system example high pressure transmission system (300 to 1000 psi) to distribution operation pressures (10 to 100 psi system). Gas Main – Pipe that delivers gas through the system. • Types: – Steel Pipe » High tensile strength. » Long life expectancy. » Operating pressure range (10-200 psi). » Higher installation costs. » Higher maintenance costs. » Been used for a long time. 15 Primary Assets (cont’d) Gas Main – Plastic Pipe » Lower tensil strength. » Long life expectancy. » Operating pressure range (10-120 psi). » Economic installation costs. » Lower maintenance costs. » Began installing mid-70’s. – NWE Pipe Sizes » Steel (2” – 20”). » Plastic (2” – 12”). 16 Primary Assets (cont’d) Services – Carries gas from mains to the customer entrance. • Types – Steel and Plastic » Same characteristics as mains. Service sizes: » Residential (1/2” – 1-1/4”) » Commercial and Industrial (3/4” – 12”) Valves – equipment used to isolate gas flows on the system. » Used at gate stations, regulator stations, on gas mains, and customer » Meter locations. » Types: Plug, ball, gate all are manually turn devices. Distribution Regulators - Reduces distribution pressures a the customer meter from 910 to 100 psi) to customer delivery pressures of (.25 lbs to 5 lbs.). Meters – Equipment that measures gas usage. » Types: Diaphragm or rotary. System Configuration (i.e. Radial or Network) Radial Systems – Designed for only one source of gas usually in rural areas serving few customers. – Single line extending from regulator station into outlying areas. – Serves most residential and small commercial customers. – Most economical system to build. Network Systems – Designed for more than one source of power. – Used to tie gas mains and multiple regulator stations together. – Provides increased reliability and capacity. – Utilized in more densely populated areas. – Or when two radial systems grow together. – Requires more valves to isolate gas flows. 18 System Design Parameters System Design Parameters – Pressure • Force that pushes the gas though the system. • Higher pressure equates to more gas deliverability. – Pipe Size • Determines the carrying capacity of the gas main. • Larger diameter increases system capacity. • Bigger the pipe the more expensive to install. • Pipe size is determined by NWE load projections for area being served and customer load profile expected in areas. – Pressure • Determine by regulator station. • Higher pressures increase systems capacity. • Typical NWE distribution pressures – 10 to 65 psi Customer Customer – Delivery pressure based on equipment requirements. – Gas usage based on installed equipment. 20 Key Operating Difference from Electric Systems • Federal Mandated Operating Guidelines • Pipeline Safety Act 1971 • Established Office of Pipeline Safety under Department of Transportation (DOT) • Now called Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) • Established and continually updated DOT part 191 and 192 requirements • Montana Pipeline Safety Administered by the Montana Public Service Commission • Annual Operating Inspections 21 Gas System Maintenance Gas System Maintenance – DOT code. – Corrosion control Requirements. » Cathodic protective systems - prevents corrosion on steel mains and services by transferring corrosion to established points called cathodic ground beds which are periodically replaced when depleted. » Atmospheric surveys – period inspection programs of above ground steel equipment for deterioration. » Bell hole reports – forms filled out checking pipe condition for deterioration any time mains or serves are exposed for maintenance or inspection. – Leak surveillance. » Specialized equipment design to detect gas escaping from the system. » Leak detection requires someone to walk all mains and services. 22 Inspection Frequency of inspection. – Overall system – completed once every four years on all gas mains and services. – Business districts – completed every year. Valve maintenance. – Requires turning every zone valve on the system each year to ensure valve works. Regulator station maintenance. – Inspection required yearly to ensure equipment functions properly. Odorant injection and ongoing checks. – Substance injected into the gas system that gives the gas its distinct smell. – Odorant allows for detection by average person (early detection system for public safety). – Odorant checks perform every three months on each distinct gas system. Public safety communication. – Education programs to inform public of proper safety measures, who to call and how to respond. 23 Emergency Response Emergency Response and Customer Service – – – – 24 Gas leaks Hit lines No-heats Carbon Monoxide Natural Gas Mains Mains – Identify main capacity requirements – Radial source main pressure profile – Main loading pressure curve – Overload time factor – Reserve capacity for other systems – Establish future growth curve – Forecast replacement 25 Natural Gas Distribution Example Map 26 Gas System Performance - Montana 27 *AGA 2015 Information not available till June 2016 Gas System Performance – Montana 28 *AGA 2015 Information not available till June 2016 NorthWestern’s Natural Gas System Overview Montana Gas Distribution – – – – – Steel Main 1,228 Miles Plastic Main 3,458 Miles 168 Communities 188,400 Customers Total Throughput 90,789,518 MMBTU (propane gal equivalent) Montana Gas Transmission – Transmission Line Miles 2200 – Gas Storage in Montana – Customers – Bundled Retail, Wholesale Transport and Storage 29 Montana Natural Gas Service Territory NorthWestern Energy’s serves 189,000 Montana natural gas customers in 105 communities, and provides gas storage and transmission to other parties. 30 Conceptual Layout Natural Gas Transmission Overview Natural Gas Transmission Overview “Core Customers” and Third Party Service • Gas Nominations for the Day – (Gas Flowing in and Out of the System) Generally inject gas into storage during summer months • (Generally May to early October is injection season) Provide gas storage and transportation capabilities for other entities $22.1 Million in Revenue in 2015 • Ultimately offsets customer rates 32 Gas Transmission Natural Gas Transmission Map 33 GTS Gas Supply – Design Day GTS Annual Gas Supply Makeup GTS Design Day Gas Supply Makeup 15% 14% 22% 61% 63% Production 34 Interconnects Storage Production 25% Interconnects Storage NWE Gas Storage Fields Field Bcf Deliverability, Mcfd Working Gas, Cobb Dry Creek Box Elder 140,000 40,000 5,000 11.0 5.5 0.5 Total 185,000 17.0 NWE Pipeline Interconnects The transmission system connects with five other pipeline companies. Approximately 48% of the annual gas supply comes from Canada and the balance from Montana and Wyoming. Pipeline Capacity (Mcfd) TCPL (Nova) ~120,000 Aden ~50,000 Havre Pipeline ~30,000 CIG ~40,000 WBI ~20,000 2014 Contracted (Mcfd) 98,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 0 NWE Gas Production Acquisitions Battle Creek acquired 2010 Annual Production = 0.9 Bcf NFR acquired 2012, Devon acquired 2013 Annual Production = 7 Bcf Compression Technology Reciprocating 28,500 HP 38 Gas Turbine – 16,500 HP Peak Day & Design Day Peak Day – Peak day is defined as a weather event during the heating season that results in the highest gas loads (demands) on the GTS system. o Largest Recent Peak Day 12-7-2013 Design Day – Design day is the worst weather event the GTS system can have over the operating territory and still maintain gas deliveries on a firm basis. o Design Day Base 2-2-1989 – Design Day has a direct impact on capital/construction plan. Top Ten Peaking Events (2004 – 2015) 2015 Model Accuracy Total Actual System Flow (Mcf) Design Day Total For Weather State Average Year HDD Rank Date Core Actual Flow (Mcf) 1 12/7/2013 192,042 98.0% 293,543 316,624 80 6 68 13 2 2/5/2014 191,155 99.6% 284,344 322,980 78 7 66 44 3 2/6/2014 189,128 99.5% 280,199 322,980 81 6 68 0 4 12/6/2013 188,589 98.0% 298,007 316,624 76 9 66 44 5 1/5/2004 188,577 96.5% 267,254 302,181 82 7 71 34 6 12/14/2008 183,964 98.1% 275,760 326,623 79 11 64 77 7 12/8/2009 183,113 95.9% 284,503 331,498 79 4 68 9 8 12/15/2008 180,648 99.1% 271,083 326,623 77 7 68 39 9 12/8/2013 179,270 99.2% 279,183 316,624 73 6 75 74 10 2/4/2014 179,240 97.6% 279,046 322,980 72 10 66 73 89 11 56 88 Design Day Weather (2/2/89) Wind Speed Relative Humidity Cloud Cover Design Day NWE is reviewing the Design Day weather conditions and validating the use for system requirements and future capital investments. – Working with the National Weather Service for Weather Analysis – Reviewing design philosophies with peer companies – Working with the University of Montana for Climate Analysis Gas System Compliance DOT - Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) – DIMP – Distribution – PIM/HCA – Transmission o o New Regulations coming – Class 3 Locations Control Room Management – Drug and Alcohol testing – Now proposed, Safety Management System OSHA MTPSC / SDPUC / NEPSC – Line extension policies 42 Conceptual Layout Electric System Overview Overview – Electric Distribution Electric Distribution – Primary Assets – Design Criteria, Operations and Maintenance – Asset Management and System Integrity Plan Development 44 Electric System Primary Assets Overhead System – Poles – support structure for ground clearance. – Conductor – carries electric current. – Transformer – reduces circuit voltage to household levels. Other Equipment – Insulators – provides voltage isolation from pole/equipment. – Cutouts – individual sectionalizing device. – Switches – circuit sectionalizing device. – Arrestors – circuit surge protector (over voltage protection). – Reclosers – mechanical sectionalizing device. – Capacitor – line reactance device. – Regulator – voltage stabilization device. Design use for longer distances, larger loads, and an earlier design practice. 45 Electric System Primary Assets (continued) Underground Systems – Cable – underground current carrying conductor that also provides voltage isolation at the same time (different types). Construction Methods – Conduit – allows UG conductor to be pulled in and out once buried. – No Conduit – direct buried into ground must be dug up to be replaced. – Pad Mount Transformers – reduces circuit voltage to household levels. – Elbows – transition equipment for cable to connect to other pieces of equipment. – Switchgear – circuit sectionalizing device. – Arrestors – Circuit surge protector (overvoltage protection). Design use for shorter distances, serves medium to small loads, design became economical in mid 80’s to early 90’s. 46 Electric Distribution – System Primary Assets (continued) Substations – Breakers – mechanical devices for fault interruption. – Large Transformers – reduces voltage from transmission levels to distribution levels. – Regulators – voltage stabilization device. – Switches – substation sectionalizing device. – Reclosers – mechanical fault interruption device. – Other major equipment. Services and Meters 47 Electric Distribution – Design, Criteria System Configuration (i.e., Radial, Loop Feeds, Etc.) – Radial Systems • Designed for only one source of power. • Single line extending from substation into outlying areas • Serves most residential and small commercial customers. • Most economical system to build. – Loop Systems • Designed for more than one source of power. • Used to tie substations together. • Provides increased reliability. • Utilized in more densely populated areas. • Or when two radial systems grow together. • Designed for sensitive customer needs. 48 Electric Distribution – Design, Criteria (continued) System Design Parameters – Single-Phase • Overhead lines require two conductors • Underground lines require one conductor. – Three-Phase • Overhead lines requires four conductors. • Underground lines require three conductors. • Three-phase lines have three times the load capacity as single-phase lines. • Most motors greater than 10 hp require three-phase or individual customer loads greater than 400 amps. • Lines configuration generally determined by customer load profile and economics for utility/customer. 49 Electric Distribution – Design, Criteria (continued) Voltages – Determine by substation transformer. – Higher voltages require increase ground clearance and bigger insulators. – Typical NWE distribution voltages. – Single-phase voltages. • 2400, 7200, 14400 – Three-phase voltages. • 4160, 12470, 24940, 34, 500 Current Capacity – Determine by the conductor size. – Larger the conductor the more current capacity. – Larger conductor requires shorter span lengths and bigger poles. – Larger conductors have less energy losses due to conductor heating. 50 Electric Distribution – Design, Criteria (continued) Customer – Determines voltage. • Single-phase 120/240 volt. • Three-phase 120/208 or 277/480. – Voltage required determined by customer’s equipment. – Determines power needs. Power Requirements – Energy - the customer’s use. – Power – measure in watts. – Power – voltage X current. – Power losses – I2 X conductor losses. Therefore, higher voltage equates to: – More load serving capabilities. – Less energy losses due to conductor heating. – Larger poles. – Bigger insulators. – More expensive equipment. Systems generally design to find economic balance point. 51 Electric - Operations and Maintenance National Electric Safety Code – Provides general direction and sets minimum guidelines (inspection and maintenance cycles) of our electric facilities. – Designed to evaluate asset life utilization. Northwestern Primary O&M Circuit Guidelines – Overhead line patrol (detailed and visual). – Underground device inspection (detailed and visual). – Underground vault inspection (detailed and visual). – Street light patrol (detailed and visual). – Tree trimming (circuit and hot spotting). – Electric meter inspection (visual). – Pole inspection (detailed test and treat). 52 Electric – Operations and Maintenance (continued) Substation Guidelines – Substation inspection and operation plan. – Power circuit breakers and reclosers – trip timing. – Power circuit breakers and recloser maintenance. – Substation nitrogen tanks. – Battery maintenance procedure. – Weed spraying. – Manual closing of breakers and reclosers. – Capacitors, transformer fans and relaying settings. – Infrared scanning substations and transformers. – Relaying testing. – Equipment oil analysis. – Equipment SF6 gas analysis. 53 Electric Distribution – Operations and Maintenance (continued) Emergency Response – Major storms. – Day-to-day outages. – Hit poles or underground. – Down lines. – Voltage problems. 54 Conceptual Layout Electric System Asset Management and System Integrity Plan Development Asset Management and System Integrity Plan Development System Integrity Plan Involves Four Major Components – Capacity – Reliability – Asset Life – Compliance Performance Criteria Considered (IEEE Indices) – SAIDI – System Average Interruption Duration Index – SAIFI – System Average Interruption Frequency Index – CAIDI – Customer Average Interruption Duration Index Outage Count 56 Asset Management and System Integrity Plan Development (cont’d) Capacity – Substation Transformers and Equipment. • Identify substation capacity requirements. • Radial source substation. • Winter loading capacity – 125% of nameplates. • Summer loading capacity – 110% of template. • Transformer oil temperature - 75°C degree rise ambient. • System spare available. • Overload time factor. • Reserve capacity for other substations. • Establish future growth curve. • Forecast year for replacement. 57 – Circuit • Identify circuit capacity requirements. • Radial source circuit voltage profile. • Conductor ampacity loading damage curve. • Overload time factor. • Reserve capacity for other circuits. • Capacitor placement necessary. • Regulator replacement necessary. • Establish future growth curve. • Forecast replacement. Asset Management and System Integrity Plan Development (cont’d) Reliability – Overall performance of electric system. – Rolling three-year averages used to soften yearly variations. – Track trends in major categories. – Overall effectiveness of O&M guidelines. – Review of asset life utilization. – Review of loop sources. – Effectiveness of automation. – Overall system SAIDI impact utilized for O&M guideline applications. • Pole inspection/replacement. • Tree trimming. • Underground cable replacement. • Future applications OH line patrol and UG device inspections. 58 Asset Management and System Integrity Plan Development (cont’d) Reliability (continued) – Circuit Reliability Ranking (SAIDI, CAIDI, SAIFI) • Circuit reliability metric comparison to IEEE quartile ranking. • Reliability parameters breakdown such as trees, cable failures. • Possible candidate for increased inspection cycles for O&M guidelines. • Possible application of new electronic system protection equipment. – Worst Circuits • IEEE 4th quartile circuit performance. • Detailed root cause reliability analysis. • Review of circuit design for environmental fit . • Field visit with operations personnel for circuit recommendations. • Possible application of new electronic system protection equipment. 59 Asset Management and System Integrity Plan Development (cont’d) 60 Asset Life • Define major asset classes. • Determine impacts of failures on system performance, safety, customer satisfaction and potential risk profiles. • Ability to establish asset life expectancy. • Ability to determine asset failure curves. • Evaluate economics of preventative maintenance and inspection guidelines. • Ability to perform just in time replacement. • Economics of a proactive replacement program vs reactive failure replacement. • Proactive maintenance programs. • Systematic replacement ahead of failure. • Pole replacement. • Potential underground cable replacement. • Street light bulb replacement. • Substation equipment replacement. • Electric ERT replacement. Balancing Risk, Cost and Value System Risk that has to be Considered and Balanced against Economics • Potential costs of an individual incident. • Probably of each incident actually happening. • Ability to respond to any incident. • Establishing the value of safety – public and work force. • Worker compensation values can be established for each lost time incident. • Evaluating costs of updating system to new standards and guidelines. • Establishing costs of a reliability minute. • Impacts of disturbances on customer satisfaction. • Costs to customers of each option. 61 NorthWestern’s Electric System 62 Montana Electric Service Territory NorthWestern Energy serves 354,000 Montana electric customers in 187 communities, and provides essential infrastructure for electric cooperatives and other transmission customers. 63 Reliability Performance (Excluding MEDs) 140.00 2.000 1.800 120.00 1.600 1.400 1.200 80.00 1.000 60.00 0.800 0.600 40.00 0.400 20.00 0.200 0.00 SAIDI CAIDI SAIFI 64 2012 2013 2014 2015 127.13 102.55 1.240 132.92 107.48 1.237 112.87 104.90 1.080 129.31 102.17 1.266 Year Average (2012-2014) 124.31 104.98 1.186 0.000 SAIFI (frequency) SAIDI-CAIDI (minutes) 100.00 Reliability Performance (Including MEDs) 300.00 1.800 1.600 250.00 200.00 1.200 1.000 150.00 0.800 100.00 0.600 0.400 50.00 0.200 0.00 SAIDI CAIDI SAIFI 65 2012 2013 2014 2015 160.14 119.53 1.340 146.20 112.04 1.305 112.87 104.90 1.080 259.61 165.89 1.565 Year Average (2012-2014) 139.74 112.16 1.242 0.000 SAIFI (frequency) SAIDI-CAIDI (minutes) 1.400 System Overview Montana Electric Distribution – Overhead miles of line 13,124 – Underground miles of line 4,536 – 203 communities – 353,673 customers – Montana Electric Transmission • 97,540 square miles • 50 kV to 500 kV • Regulated by MPSC/FERC/NERC/WECC • Bilateral Markets – Potential Energy • Imbalance Market (EIM) – Customers – Bundled Retail, Wholesale – and Interconnection 66 DSIP Progress Update 2011- 2015 67 NWE System Characteristics Rural Urban Comb. 68 Our strategy must reflect the challenges of dispersed rural assets Electric System Transmission Mike Cashell Vice President 69 Transmission Overview • Western two-thirds of Montana; 97,540 square miles • 6,900 miles of transmission lines & associated terminal facilities • Voltage levels from 50 kV to 500 kV • 286 circuit segments • 100,000 transmission poles 70 Electric Transmission Operations • 97,540 + sq. mi. service territory • Electric transmission operations (50-500 kilovolt) – Montana • 6,700 circuit miles • 53 substations • 326,000 customers • Operate in two reliability councils – WECC and MRO • Operates in both vertically integrated SD and unbundled (changing) markets in MT • System Dispatch operations for gas and electric for all three states • Montana balancing authority area serves more than 3,600 MW of generation 71 NorthWestern Service Area Connected Entities 72 2016 T&D Budgets • O&M ($131.4M) – Distribution ($88.6M) – Transmission ($36.7M) – Support Functions ($6.1M) • CAPEX ($232M) – Distribution ($88.7M) – DSIP ($51.8M) – Transmission ($91.5M) 73 Transmission Major Projects 2016 Overall Budget – Transmission; Electric and Gas • Montana - $87 Million • South Dakota - $4.5 Million • Total - $91.5 Million Transmission Major Projects – 2016 Budget • • • • • • • • • • 74 ET Columbus-Rapelje to Chrome Junction 100 kV Ln – Capacity/Reliability - $15.4 Million ET Jack Rabbit -Big Sky 161 kV Line Upgrade – Capacity Reliability - $7.3 Million ET NERC Facility Rating Alert 115/100 – Compliance - $9.7 Million GTS GTIP Bozeman Eastside – Safety Reliability - $3.9 Million GTS GTIP Bozeman Westside – Safety Reliability - $3.7 Million ET Crooked Falls Switchyard Expansion – Capacity/Environmental - $ 2.7 Million ET Dillon-Salmon 161-69 Auto Bank – Capacity/Reliability - $ 2.2 Million GTS MT Station W (Storage) Horsepower – Capacity/Reliability - $ 2.2 Million GTS MT Meriwether Road/Kalispell – Capacity/Reliability - $5.8 Million ETS Stevensville A and B Line -$4.0 Million NWE Transmission System - Unique Aspects • • • • • • 75 Colstrip 500-kV transmission system AMPS line Retail choice & non-NWE generation Generation > load within NWMT Balancing Authority Area; generally an exporting Balancing Authority Large volume of transmission service requests: 1500 to 2000+ per week Open Access Transmission Tariff (OATT) differences from other Western utilities resulting from deregulation, IPPs, choice loads Path Diagram 76 Control Center Functions | Butte, MT EMS System Operations Transmission Services Grid Operations 77 Transmission Services 78 Emerging Transmission Technology Synchrophasers • NorthWestern Energy (NWE) has been a participant in the PEAK\WECC synchrophasor project since 2011. • The goal of the project is to provide a toolbox of new situational awareness products for WECC members to aid in the reliable operation of the transmission system. NWE provides real time synchrophasor angle data (voltage and current) to PEAK from three Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) located at the 500KV substation at Colstrip (1 PMU) and 230KV switchyard at Great Falls (2 PMUs). • There are over 500 PMUs in the project that have been installed or are in the process of being installed across the WECC region. Montana Tech is a partner in this project and has provided the software for the low frequency oscillation monitoring. Drones • We have begun investigating the use of Drones for certain transmission applications such as performing transmission line inspection, LIDAR survey, photogrammetry, vegetation inventory on rights-of-way and other potential uses. For example, in a transmission line survey, a Drone may be able to get more accurate and “close up” data, and conduct line survey more safely than conventional fixed wing aircraft or helicopter. 79 WECC-Rated Paths NWMT WECC Rated Paths Path 83 325 MW MATL 1-230 kV line 300 MW 2,200 MW 1350 MW 200 MW Path 8 Montana-Northwest 2-500 kV lines 5-230 kV lines 3-115 kV lines 150 MW 256 MW 600 MW Path 80 383 MW 600 MW Yellowtail Path 18 80 Miles City DC Tie Montana-Idaho 1-230 kV line 1-161 kV line Montana-Southeast 1-230 kV line 1-161 kV line 1-200 DC tie FERC Open Access Transmission Tariff (OATT) Regional Planning • 81 FERC Order 1000 reforms FERC’s electric transmission planning and cost allocation requirements for public utility transmission providers. – Required NorthWestern to join a regional planning group that satisfies certain identified criteria. o Northern Tier Transmission Group (NTTG) in Montana o Moving to SPP in South Dakota – It also requires that NorthWestern coordinate through this regional group with an even larger group of neighboring utilities at an inter-regional level. Electric System Compliance Summary • • • • • 82 NERC - Transmission WECC/MRO - Transmission – Reliability – Critical Cyber Infrastructure Protection (CIP) – Audits (Combo Audit in March/April 2015) o 99 Standards; 1051 Requirements o Very Good Outcome – NERC Alerts FERC – Transmission – FERC Audit began 3/17/15 – Tariff – Generation Interconnection – Transmission Service MT PSC - Transmission OSHA, DOT Transmission FERC Open Access Transmission Tariff (OATT) Open Access Rulemaking • • FERC Order 888 and 889 (late 1990s) provided for Open Access to all eligible customers of FERC Regulated Transmission Providers Non-discriminatory Treatment – Defined Affiliates of Transmission Provider – Provided New Business for Third Party Transmission Sales 2007- 2015 OASIS Revenue - Cumulative Totals by Year 36,000,000 31,000,000 2007 Actuals 2008 Actuals 26,000,000 2009 Actuals Revenue 2010 Actuals 21,000,000 2011 Actuals 2012 Actuals 16,000,000 2013 Actuals 2014 Actuals 11,000,000 2015 Actuals 6,000,000 1,000,000 83 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 - $32.1 Million (results in offsets to customer rates) FERC Open Access Transmission Tariff (OATT) Generation Interconnection FERC Order 2003 and Order 2006 - Large and Small Generator Interconnection Procedures (LGIP/SGIP) Boom and Bust… 84 An Example - MSTI Project Failed MSTI Project Shelved – In August 2012 NWE called a “Time-Out” with the BLM, MDEQ and ceased all activity on the EIS process, – Led to NWE writing off the $24 million in development costs incurred for the Project. • 50 months of analysis • 3 ADEIS documents • No DEIS ever produced – This decision was the result of: • The ever changing scope, schedule delays to complete the EIS and the significant cost of these delays to the Project • Lack of cooperation and coordination between agencies – BLM, MDEQ, USFS, DOE • MFSA is outdated and statute not compatible with today’s new transmission development world making it difficult for NWE to demonstrate purpose and need and commercial viability • Sage grouse issue created more delays and uncertainty with the decision on possible listing under the ESA not being made until 2015 • Declining renewable energy market in MT- energy developers unable to secure customers, lack of national renewable energy standard, PTC uncertainty, restrictions on out of state renewables allowed by some western states 85 Regional – Energy Imbalance Market (EIM) Unanimous Resolution of NWPP Participants - May 29, 2015 – Development of Automated Centrally Cleared Energy Dispatch (CCED) • Market within the BPA footprint • Transmission to BPA preserved • Market Operator and Development by September 2015 • Decision point mid-November 2015 • Target “Go-Live” late 2017 – Expanded Ace Diversity Interchange (ADI) Program – Regulation Sharing Development – Development of Resource Sufficiency Methodology – Effort failed in late 2015 – NorthWestern currently evaluating options 86 Shutdown of the Colstrip – What does it mean to the overall Transmission System? Large mass of stable predictable generation provides important support to the Transmission system. – Impacts Include o Import and Export capability reductions o Voltage Support issues in Eastern Montana o Loss of resource for Large Industrial Customers o Impact to transfer capability in the North and South of Great Falls cutplane o Replacement generation must have similar attributes o Potential need to operate the Colstrip Transmission System (CTS)in a much less efficient manner – Potential contractual need to derate/decommission part or all of CTS – BPA’s Montana Intertie also key facility paid for by Colstrip Operation 87 88 Transmission & Distribution Overall Infrastructure Initiative & DSIP Review Infrastructure Vision Integrated T&D investment and maintenance plans which directly support NWE’s long term strategic goals for managing our delivery systems. • Delivery systems serve our customers in urban, suburban and rural areas and are comprised of: • Electric & Gas Transmission • Substations/Gate/Compressor Stations • Electric & Gas Distribution 89 Least Cost Replacement Rate Desired Economic Operating Range Prohibitively Expensive 90 Very frequent replacement Unacceptable Operations Frequency of asset replacement Replace only at failure T&D Major System Categories Major categories are used in monitoring our system delivery capabilities Asset Life (Managed by components) Reliability (By segment and asset performance) Capacity (By segment and asset performance) Compliance (By segment and asset performance) Automation and Technology (utilized throughout the major categories) 91 Future Infrastructure CAPEX Plan Blueprint Distribution Base – includes Reactive and Normal Maintenance Transmission Base – includes Reactive and Normal Maintenance Overall Infrastructure Electric Gas Capacity • Distribution • Transmission Capacity • Distribution, Substations, Transmission Reliability • Distribution, Substations, Transmission 92 Automation & Technology Reliability • Distribution • Transmission Asset Life • Distribution, Substations, Transmission Asset Life • Distribution, • Transmission Compliance • Distribution, Substations, Transmission Safety/Compliance • Distribution • Transmission Infrastructure Stakeholder Group Build on model and success of DSIP and DSIP stakeholder process Diverse stakeholder group, including technical skills, customers, and others Meeting monthly over an extended period 93 Our Specification for the Future (Devleloped by first ISG) Our vision, which we developed with the input of the ISG, is a distribution system that is: – Safe for our employees and the public – Reliable – consistent with the needs of a society that is increasingly dependent on electricity – Able to grow – to accommodate the needs of new customers and potential quantum growth from new electric applications – Optimized – an optimum mix of investment in new plant and maintenance of existing facilities – Responsive to all customers – minimizes the service gap between urban and rural customers – Energy efficient – a system that provides the platform to achieve the efficient use of energy resources – Cost effective – a system designed, built and operated for least, long-term cost while achieving the above objectives – State-of-the-art – a system that employs effective technologies to further the above objectives 94 94 Future Scenarios “Brave New Grid” A range of potential outcomes was initially defined “Ready for the Future” “More Aggressive Asset Management” “Stay the Course” “Slow Decline” Less Investment Further ageing Cost of catch-up becomes too high Spiral with recovery nearly impossible 95 95 Same Investment Investment now above depreciation Some continued ageing Higher maintenance costs Declining reliability Cost of catch-up grows Modest New Investment Arrest the ageing New Generation of Asset ManagementHigher Quality of Information More Proactive Less Reactive Investment and Maintenance costs Maintain reliability Smart Grid Near-term widespread Smart Grid deployment Significant New Investment Reverse the trend in ageing Optimize maintenance costs Improve reliability Position for Smart Grid “No barriers to future deployment” “No regrets about deployment” Basis for the NWE Strategy Facing similar challenges to those at the national level, we have set the following goals – Arrest or reverse the trend in aging infrastructure – Build margin (capacity) back into the system – Maintain reliability over the long-term, and improve it for our rural customers – Position NWE to adopt Smart Grid – Enthusiastically embrace the industry’s new performance driven model (DIMP) – Employ state-of-the-art analytical capabilities to proactively manage safety – Improve leak rate performance 96 96 DSIP Progress Update 2011- 2015 Q1 (update) DSIP Base Project To Date (PTD) Gas Repairs (G1’s) $13,596,260.00 $5,597,931.00 $2,623,084.00 $1,122,260.00 $789,508.00 $530,866.00 $17,539.00 $756,204.00 $10,566,438.00 $2,219,236.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 8,643 OH miles 8,541 OH miles 5,772 repairs 8 Circuits *51 Substations *28 Base Stations, 8 Subs *15 Farm Taps 7,254 repairs Capital Projects- $144M Pole Replacement Underground Cable Replacement Substation Upgrades Capacity Upgrades Gas Historic Block Refurbishment Rural Reliability Improvement Automation Farm Taps $56,396,772.00 $28,260,229.00 $12,151,861.00 $10,310,909.00 $23,120,000.00 $2,076,454.00 $4,644,622.00 $329,361.00 $11,495,784.95 $7,986,501.34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 21,299 poles 787,000 trench ft. *51 Substations 19 projects 160 blocks 8 Circuits *28 Base Stations, 8 Subs *15 Farm Taps Expense Projects- $42M Tree Trimming Pole Inspection OH Electric Repairs (P2’s) Rural Reliability Improvement Substation Upgrades Automation Farm Taps *Combination of Capital and Expense 97 Conceptual Layout Questions? 98 DSIP Progress Update 2011- 2015 Q1 (update) Operations Prioritization Model – Emergency response – out of powers, gas odors, hit gas lines. – Service continuity in jeopardy (outage inevitable) overloaded equipment, low gas pressure, no heats, low voltage, busted cross-arm. – Compliance requirements – federal mandates, contractual obligations. – Customer service – new construction, pilot lights – off season, turn on/turn offs. – Routine maintenance – O&M guidelines not covered by compliance requirements, routine system equipment replacement not covered above. 99 Asset Management and System Integrity Plan Development Asset Management and System Integrity Plan Development – Three major components. • Capacity – Transmission system, gate station and equipment. » Identify gate station capacity requirements. » Radial source station. » Winter loading capacity – design capacity. » Actual system monitoring to determine diversity. » Factor and loading timeframe. » Proximity to other sources. » Determine minimum pressure requirements. » Establish future growth curve. » Forecast year for upgrades. 100 System Reliability System reliability. Evaluate leak history. Evaluate cathodic reads and shorts. Evaluate bell hole reports watching for external and internal corrosion Issues. 101 Asset Life Asset Life Define major asset classes. Determine impacts of failures on system performance, safety, customer satisfaction and potential risk profiles. Ability to establish asset life expectancy. Ability to determine asset failure curves. Evaluate economics of preventative maintenance and inspection guidelines. Ability to perform just in time replacement. Economics of a proactive replacement program vs reactive failure replacement. 102 Asset Life (cont’d) – Proactive maintenance programs. – Systematic replacement ahead of failure. – Main replacement. – Service replacement. – Gate station heaters and equipment replacement. – Gas ERT replacement – metering. • System risk that has to be considered and balanced against economic risk. – Potential costs of an individual incident. – Probably of each incident actually happening. – Ability to respond to any incident. • • • • • • 103 Establishing the value of safety – public and workforce. Worker compensation values can be established for each lost time incident. Evaluating costs of updating system to new standards and guidelines. Establishing cost of a reliability minute. Impacts of disturbances on customer satisfaction. Costs to customers for each option. Physical and Cyber Security Security Coordinating Council • The Security Coordinating Council (“SCC”) serves as the cross-functional clearinghouse for consulting, advising and guiding NorthWestern Energy policies, procedures, direction, prioritization, and coordination for cyber and physical security. – • Initiatives include NERC physical and cyber security requirements, cyber security beyond NERC as it relates to our overall corporate cyber infrastructure and general security of our facilities. The Members/Participants are: – Permanent Members. o o o o o o o o – Participants. The following will participate in the SCC in order to provide continuity with related internal controls, internal and external audit and compliance considerations, and technical and business process expertise: o o o o 104 Vice President – Transmission (Executive Sponsor and Chair); Chief Business Technology Officer; Director of Support Services; Director of Grid Operations; Director of Substation Operations; Director of Human Resources; Director of Safety, Health, and Environmental Services; General Manager of Generation. President & CEO, and other Executives, as necessary; Other subject matter experts, as necessary and at the request of the SCC Chair. Chief Audit and Compliance Officer; FERC Compliance Officer. Operations Prioritization Model – Gas and Electric Guidelines for O&M and CAPEX Investment Decisions 1. Emergency Response – out of power, gas odors, hit gas lines. 2. Service Continuity in Jeopardy (outage inevitable) - overloaded equipment, low gas pressure, no heat, low voltage, busted cross-arm. 3. Compliance Requirements – federal mandates, contractual obligations. 4. Customer Service – new construction, pilot lights-off season, turn-on, turn-off. 5. Proactive and Routine System Maintenance and Investment – O&M guidelines not covered by compliance requirements, proactive and routine system equipment replacement not covered above. a. Sub-prioritized based on overall value and risk. 105 Reliability Data Base Demo 106 Current Situation Reliability – First quartile performance – Stable and holding in the short-term. – Current Investment will not sustain this level of service long term Capacity – Adequate to serve existing needs. – Stable in the short term Asset Life – Aging assets. • Some major assets have high percentage reaching predicted useful life. – Pole assets 40% in ten years (115,000 poles). – Cable assets 20% in ten years (3,822,386 feet of cable). 107 Pole Age Profile Pole Age Profile 100000 # of Poles 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 0 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 30 30 to 40 40 to 50 50 to 60 60 to 70 Urban 5131 11114 8160 6932 4362 3386 1412 Rural 27245 59010 43325 36806 23162 17976 7499 4140 8966 6583 5593 3519 2731 1139 91 196 144 122 77 60 25 36607 79286 58212 49453 31121 24153 10075 Combination Undefined Total Age Category 108 Underground Cable Age Profile Underground Cable Age Profile Percent of Total 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Years 0 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 30 30 to 40 40 to 50 41.21% 38.74% 15.78% 4.15% 0.12% Years Category 109 Underground Cable Age Profile II Underground Cable Age Profile 9,000,000 8,000,000 Feet of Cable 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 Cable Feet 0 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 30 30 to 40 40 to 50 7,857,453 7,387,183 3,008,746 790,639 22,833 Years Category 110 What is the Future? 111 Glossary of Terms CAIDI – Customer Average Interruption Duration Index (Hrs/Cust): Average outage duration (hours) for those customers who have been interrupted during the year. SAIFI – System Average Interruption Frequency Index (Int/SysCust): Number of outages, on average, that any average system customer would experience during the year. SAIDI – System Average Interruption Duration Index (Hrs/SysCust): Average outage duration (hours) that any average system customer would experience during the year. Note: Outage Indices Definitions based on IEEE/EPRI publications. IEEE – Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers Professional Engineers Society. 112 Organization Overview • 113 Distribution (770 Total Employees) – Mt Operations o 344 Craft (union represented) o 34 Engineering & Supervision – Mt Construction o 51 Supervision & Engineering – SD Operations o 150 Craft (union represented) o 31 Engineering & Supervision – Asset Management (Supports both T&D) o 61 Supervision and Support – Support Functions (99 Employees) 2014 Operations Highlights 1. Best year ever from a Safety Perspective 2. Strong year in Electric Reliability and Gas Leak performance 3. Great execution of work plans 1. Both Operating (expense plans) and Construction (CAPEX) plans 2. More work completed in our History 1. 2. Base plans (higher growth) DSIP Execution 4. In-Service Implementation 114 Major Initiatives • • 115 T&D – Development of a Comprehensive Infrastructure Plan Distribution – Continued Process Improvement (refined work planning and execution, Construction and Operations – Continued In-Service refinement o Mobile Workforce Management o Outage Management – Distribution System Infrastructure Project (DSIP) execution – Workforce Planning – Other Technology Evaluation and Testing o Smart Grid Pilot – Distribution Automation o Volt / Var Optimization o AMI o LED Lighting o Solar and other Distributed Generation Applications Technology Evaluation 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 116 System Automation 1. Distribution Segmentation (Fault Location Isolation and Service Restoration) 2. Communications Platform Distributed Generation 1. Rural Solar Reliability Project (Beck’s Hill) 2. Solar – Community / Residential 1. Bozeman Project 3. Potential Microgrids Volt / Var Control LED Lighting Other 1. Gas Expansion 2. Electric Vehicles Montana Electric Delivery System Reliability Overview Montana SAIDI w/o MEDs S A I D I m i n 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 TOTAL TRANS. DIST. Linear (TOTAL) Linear (TRANS.) Linear (DIST.) 2007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019 YEAR 180 S A I D I 160 m i n 80 Considerations Improve outage collection process A lot of unknowns being recorded Improve integration between distribution and transmission outage recording systems Montana SAIDI with MEDs 140 120 TOTAL 100 TRANS. DIST. Linear (TOTAL) 60 Linear (TRANS.) 40 Linear (DIST.) 20 0 117 Current Status Reliability trend upward Outage information from distribution outage tracker Sustained outages include line and substation outages 2007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019 YEAR Delivery System Reliability Overview YEAR 118 150 2000 100 1000 50 0 YEAR 2019 0 2018 Linear (TRANS.) 3000 2017 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 0 2008 0 Linear (DIST.) 200 2016 50 4000 2015 1000 Linear (TOTAL) 250 2014 100 5000 2013 2000 TRANS. 300 2012 150 3000 DIST. 6000 2011 200 4000 350 2010 5000 TOTAL 7000 2009 250 400 2008 6000 8000 2007 300 Distribution Outages 7000 Transmission Outages 350 2007 Distribution Outages 8000 Transmission Outages MT Outages with MEDs MT Outages w/o MEDs TOTAL DIST. TRANS. Linear (TOTAL) Linear (DIST.) Linear (TRANS.) Substation System Reliability Overview Substation Equipment Failures 9 O u t a g e C o u n t s 8 7 AirBreak 6 Arrestor Breaker 5 Disconnect 4 Insulator 3 Recloser 2 Transformer 1 0 AirBreak Arrestor Breaker Disconnect Insulator Recloser Transformer 119 2007 8 0 0 0 2 4 2 2008 0 0 5 0 0 5 0 2009 0 3 4 6 0 3 2 2010 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2011 0 1 2 1 2 0 1 2012 0 3 0 1 4 0 2 2013 0 1 8 0 2 1 9 Transmission Substation System Reliability Overview Transmission Substation Reliability Current Status Both Outages & SAIDI dropped for 2-3 years, but rose in 2013. Sustained outages including only those occurring within the substation SAIDI 35 5 4.5 30 4 25 3.5 3 20 2.5 15 2 1.5 10 1 5 0.5 0 0 2007 120 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 SAIDI Outage Count Considerations Improve outage collection process, a lot of unknowns being recorded Substation is the highest level of outage recordable, so a line outage that causes a sub outage is very difficult to record Outage Count Transmission Capacity Summary System Loading •The Electric Transmission System is generation rich with slowly increasing load: •1,800 MW Peak Load In Demand/Core Customers (control area peak Dec ‘08). •2875 MW Pre-2000 Generation now in service. •988 MW Post-2000 Generation now in service. •251 MW planned (signed LGIA, not yet in service). •Additional 1835 MW (43 Projects) now in study queue. Regional Interconnections There are five major paths to other systems with interconnections to six other utilities and for export/import. NWE’s planning efforts are coordinated with WECC (interconnection wide - western US, Canada, Mexico) and NTTG (regional - Pacific Northwest and neighbors) and TRANSAC (local utilities and neighbors) Note: 4 of 5 import/export paths are heavily or fully loaded. 121 Transmission System Capacity Overview Transmission Delivery Capabilities 4500 4000 3500 3000 Total Capacity MVA 2500 MVA Contingency Capacity MVA Peak Usage MVA 2000 Average Usage MVA Minimum Usage MVA 1500 1000 500 0 2007 122 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Transmission System Capacity Overview System Line Capacity Loading 2015 System Normal % Utilization Available Capacity (MW) Line KV Min Max Average Min Max Average 230 7.9 56.5 33.0 210.2 452.9 311.4 161 5.0 56.3 26.8 72.7 158.9 126.6 100/115 3.5 55.4 26.9 12.8 147.8 66.3 69 2.9 65.6 20.5 8.1 58.1 26.5 50 1.4 50.8 19.8 6.7 57.2 23.3 Current Status System Capacity is stable with some areas of segment congestions 4,000 MVA of Total system deliverability 3,500 MVA of NERC Contingency deliverability 3,200 MVA peak system usage (load, generation, transfer) 80% 2015 Single Outage %Transformer Utilization by Voltage - Summer 2015 60% 40% % Utilization 123 Available Capacity (MW) Line KV Min Max Average Min Max Average 230 19.2 103.5 58.5 -16.7 386.2 190.0 161 7.8 73.7 42.6 43.4 154.7 99.1 100/115 7.9 108.2 49.1 -6.6 112.8 47.1 69 2.9 78.3 23.2 4.5 57.3 25.8 50 1.4 90.0 26.9 2.5 56.8 21.1 20% 0% 500 230 161 115 100 69 50 Conceptual Layout T&D Asset Life 124 Asset Life – Mt Distribution Pole Plant 125 Asset Life – Transmission Pole Plant Electric Transmission Pole Plant Age kV Pole Coun t kV % Sum of of Current Total Rejected Poles Poles Sum of Replace d Rejecte d Poles Sum of Total Rejecte d Poles % of % of Rejected Total Poles Rejected Rejec Replace Poles t Rate d Replaced 11788 12.7 % 269 127 396 3.4% 32.1% 14.9% 21937 23.6 % 781 307 1088 5.0% 28.2% 36.0% 100 26106 28.0 % 1048 157 1205 4.6% 13.0% 18.4% 115 4698 5.0% 22 147 169 3.6% 87.0% 17.3% 16419 17.6 % 355 42 397 2.4% 10.6% 4.9% 12129 13.0 % 14 72 86 0.7% 83.7% 8.5% 50 69 161 230 126 40,000 20,000 0 0-9 10 - 19 20 - 29 30 - 39 40 - 50 > 50 Current Status •Pole Inspect.(test/treat) on 10 yr cycle •Completed first inspection cycle in 2013 •Funding does not address all 4 rated poles •Average reject rate of 3.28% •Backlog of 2,489 - 4-rated poles (93,077) •Assumed asset Life cycle of 80 years Asset Life - Distribution Transformer Age Profile Transformer Age Profile Transformer Counts by Age Group 104 120 87 100 66 80 69 61 60 40 16 20 0 127 24 19 •Transformer counts by age group •Transformers replacements account for the majority of the plan costs •Average transmission transformer age is 42 years •Current criteria recommends replacing transformers at 45 years 128 Asset Life - Transmission Transformer Age Profile Transformer Age Profile Transformer Counts by Age Group 66 70 51 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 20 13 13 4 20 11 •Transformer counts by age group •Transformers replacements account for the majority of the plan costs •Average transmission transformer age is 43 years •Current criteria recommends replacing transformers at 40 years Electric System Compliance Summary • • • • • • 129 NERC - Transmission WECC - Transmission – Reliability – CIP – Audits (Combo Audit in April 2015 – very good results) – NERC Alerts FERC – Transmission – Tariff – GIAs – TSRs NESC – Distribution – Line Clearance MT PSC / SD PUC - Distribution – Line extension tariffs OSHA – Transmission & Distribution Major Initiatives • • T&D – Development of a Comprehensive Infrastructure Plan Transmission – Large Project Completion o Big Sky Jackrabbit 161 kV conversion (MT) – $51.9 Million o Columbus Chrome – Stillwater 100 kV (MT) – $46.7 Million o NERC Alert Facilities Rating Project (MT) - $24.2 + 230/161 o Various Large Substation Projects (MT/SD) o Gas Transmission Growth – Compression/Pipeline Looping 130 – Continued Improvement of Project Management Processes – Further Implementation of Substation Maintenance Plans and Data Bases – Grid Operations – Enhanced Same Day/Real Time System Diagnostics – Gas Transmission System Operations (Gas/Electric System ops split) – Third Party Revenue that Offsets Customer Costs – Electric and Gas – Regulatory Compliance Activities TX SYSTEM “NERC ALERT – FACILITIES RATINGS” • • The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) issued a Recommendation and Guidance to Industry on the "Consideration of Actual Field Conditions in Determination of Facility Ratings." This recommendation is to verify actual field conditions and compare them to the documented design of the facility. This recommendation applies to all bulk electric transmission system facilities (100 kV and above). These are safety reliability related improvements. Line Voltage 230 kV - Medium Priority 161 kV - Medium Priority 115 kV - Low Priority 100 kV - Low Priority 131 Gas System Capacity 132 • Distribution monitored thru flow models and planned out 5 years – Reviewed each year with lowest actual system pressures experienced • Transmission Monitored thru historical models updated each year with peak year and estimated design day results. o Could change based on the 2014/15 winter experience or potential gas expansion opportunities Gas Distribution Reliability / Safety Excavation Damages per 1,000 Locate Tickets - NWE NWE AGA 1st Quartile Average 5.0 3rd Quartile 4.0 3.6 2nd Quartile 3.0 2.6 1st Quartile 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.0 2011 133 2012 2013 2014 Gas Distribution Reliability / Safety Leaks per 100 Miles of Pipe - NWE NWE 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 7.0 1st Quartile 6.0 6.2 5.6 4.6 4.0 2.0 2011 134 2012 2013 2014 Asset Life -T&D Gas • • • Distribution System components currently under evaluation – Historic Business Districts – Inside Meter Sets – Pre 1950 construction – Aldyl A pipe (pre 1970) Monitored thru the DIMP program – Risk ranked model of distribution components – Currently addressing accelerated actions through base budgets and DSIP Transmission System components currently under evaluation – Farm Taps – Pre 1950 construction – Electric Resistance Weld Seams – High Consequence Areas o Monitored thru the PIM program o 135 Risk ranked model of transmission components Gas System Compliance • DOT - Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) – DIMP – Distribution – PIM/HCA – Transmission o o • • 136 New Regulations coming – Class 3 Locations Control Room Management – Drug and Alcohol testing – Now proposed, Safety Management System OSHA MTPSC / SDPUC / NEPSC – Line extension policies MT Natural Gas - Production Existing Production • Battle Creek (2010) o 170 Wells - Production Estimate – .37 BCF (2015) o Net PDP Gas Reserve – 8.4 BCF o Purchase Price - $12.4 Million o 20 Year Levelized Cost - $5.96/dth – Approved Nov. 2012 o Production vs. Model – 98.2% (4.5 years) • • Bear Paw (NFR- 2012) o 600 Wells - Production Estimate - 0.98 BCF (2015) o Net PDP Gas Reserve – 13.7 BCF o Purchase Price $16.8 Million o 20 Year Levelized Cost - $3.80/dth o Production vs. Model – 102.1% (3 years) Bear Paw South (Devon- 2013) o 916 Wells - Production Estimate - 4.41 BCF (2015) o Net PDP Gas Reserve – 63 BCF o Purchase Price $62.6 Million o 20 Year Levelized Cost - $4.10/dth o Production vs. Model – 101.1% (2 year) Percent of Retail Load 2% 5% 22% 71% • • • Market Purchases Battle Creek Bear Paw Bear Paw South Core supply need 20 BCF Owned production = 29% of supply Remaining need filled through purchases Distribution Infrastructure Investment Strategies Execution and Continued Improvement of Existing Business Execute Existing Plans - Find ways to improve processes that balances service quality and cost. • Organic Growth Capital $122M over next five years. • Base Maintenance Capital $241M over the next five years. • DSIP Capital $233M over the next five years. • Total $596M over the next five years. 139 Distribution System Infrastructure Plan (DSIP) Update Well Established Processes • Construction team organized processes. • Solid project management structure. • Baseline scope, schedule, budget, monitoring and control. Excellent Monthly and Annual Reporting • Tracking reports and SAP reports- feeds into the project management reports which provides early warning signs. Maintain Scope • Aware of any scope creep. • Documentation physical work (earned value) complete. Current Challenges • Pole inspection and pole change out. • Substations – will be addressed with SSIP. • Underground cable replacement. • Overall gas plan re-prioritization. 140 Current DSIP CAPEX Plan DSIP CAPEX (updated June 2014) Significant Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) Estimate Projects That Have Been Rescheduled or Postponed Due To Annual Budget Constraints Planned Cost (PC) of Work Performed - By Year ACTUAL Orig Budget Forecast by 2017 Delta by 2017 2011 PLANNED E/G Task Name 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 E DSIP Poles $93,860,000 $110,470,779 $16,610,779 $6,748,015 $7,934,239 $15,788,525 $20,000,000 $20,000,000 $20,000,000 $20,000,000 E DSIP Cable $49,140,000 $71,451,934 $22,311,934 $1,062,059 $1,811,178 $10,898,957 $10,429,740 $15,750,000 $15,750,000 $15,750,000 E DSIP Circuits (Rural Reliability) $4,290,000 $4,520,732 $230,732 $457,674 $482,218 $1,080,840 $200,000 $300,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 E DSIP Capacity $21,940,000 $19,194,823 -$2,745,177 $0 $0 $5,299,074 $4,995,749 $3,600,000 $2,725,000 $2,575,000 E DSIP Substations $16,930,000 $21,735,185 $4,805,185 $777,374 $2,243,768 $3,867,043 $2,397,000 $4,450,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 E DSIP UG Equip Repair $1,380,000 $346,917 -$1,033,083 $0 $0 $46,917 $0 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 G DSIP Gas One Plan $0 $14,500,000 $14,500,000 $4,500,000 $5,000,000 $5,000,000 G DSIP Gas Business Districts $36,500,000 $20,678,147 -$15,821,853 $5,540,852 $5,205,466 $4,631,197 $5,300,632 $0 $0 $0 G DSIP Zone Valves $5,180,000 $3,203,062 -$1,976,938 $376,315 $721,775 $5,354 $399,618 $200,000 $750,000 $750,000 G DSIP Farm Taps $530,000 $686,885 $156,885 $0 $0 $214,117 $122,768 $175,000 $175,000 $0 G DSIP Gas Service Stubs $4,980,000 $694,316 -$4,285,684 $0 $0 $494,316 $200,000 $0 $0 $0 G DSIP Gas Line Under Structure $4,130,000 $1,645,200 -$2,484,800 $0 $0 $815,398 $829,802 $0 $0 $0 G DSIP Inside Mtr Serv Repl $850,000 $341,214 -$508,786 $0 $0 $171,232 $169,982 $0 $0 $0 E DSIP Automation $42,900,000 $14,682,103 -$28,217,897 $0 $41,868 $1,232,498 $6,200,000 $1,481,076 $1,956,833 $3,769,828 E DSIP Line Code Corrections $3,920,000 $3,224,580 -$695,420 $0 $0 $624,580 $650,000 $650,000 $650,000 $650,000 DSIP DIMP $350,000 $317,806 -$32,194 $139,486 $168,774 $9,546 $0 $0 $0 $0 DSIP Other $0 $2,387,000 $2,387,000 $56,991 $128,280 $2,201,729 $0 $0 $0 $0 $286,880,000 $290,080,683 $3,200,683 $15,158,766 $18,737,566 $47,381,323 $51,895,291 $51,206,076 $52,106,833 $53,594,828 Financial Targets Based on 5-Year Plan $51,206,076 $52,106,833 $53,594,828 Delta $0 $0 $0 $184,379,022 $236,485,855 $290,080,683 Cumulative Budgeted Cost (Actual, Forecasted & Planned) $15,158,766 $33,896,332 $81,277,655 $133,172,946 Current DSIP O&M Plan DSIP O&M (June 2014) Significant Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) Estimate Projects That Have Been Rescheduled or Postponed Due To Annual Budget Constraints Planned Value (PV) of Work Performed - By Year E/G Task Name E DSIP-Pole Inspections E DSIP-Line Clearance E ACTUAL Orig Budget Forecast by 2017 Delta by 2017 2011 PLANNED 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $8,000,000 $11,264,535 $3,264,535 $611,279 $1,533,067 $1,920,189 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 $24,670,000 $24,899,699 $229,699 $2,431,672 $2,646,630 $4,021,397 $3,400,000 $4,200,000 $4,000,000 $4,200,000 DSIP-OH Repair from Patrol P2 $5,910,000 $5,466,284 -$443,716 $0 $576,576 $889,708 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 E DSIP-Rural Reliability Improvements $8,640,000 $2,341,738 -$6,298,262 $170,142 $556,024 $396,094 $0 $21,000 $198,478 $1,000,000 E DSIP-System Automation $1,460,000 $552,233 -$907,767 $0 $369,970 $79,263 $43,000 $60,000 $0 $0 E DSIP-Substation Upgrade & Improvements $4,130,000 $1,864,487 -$2,265,513 $0 $0 $264,487 $400,000 $400,000 $400,000 $400,000 E DSIP-Underground Equipment Repair $3,390,000 $3,816,927 $426,927 $0 $0 $60,000 $0 $1,000,000 $1,250,000 $1,506,927 G Gas One Plan $250,000 $500,000 $500,000 G DSIP-Dist Integrity Mgmt Prog $2,090,000 $792,215 -$1,297,785 $522,952 $269,235 $28 $0 $0 $0 $0 G DSIP-Zone Valve Installation $4,710,000 $2,363,461 -$2,346,539 $167,755 $289,444 $36,262 $20,000 $0 $850,000 $1,000,000 G DSIP-Non-Business Inside Mtr G DSIP-Gas Line Damage Prevention G G G DSIP-Gas Lines Under Structures G DSIP-Repairs G1 O $210,000 $26,740 -$183,260 $0 $0 $26,740 $0 $0 $0 $0 $8,060,000 $3,993,953 -$4,066,047 $0 $0 $243,953 $750,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 DSIP-Farm Tap Rebuild $110,000 $167,539 $57,539 $0 $0 $17,539 $0 $75,000 $75,000 $0 DSIP- Gas Stub Removal $530,000 $345 -$529,655 $0 $0 $345 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,060,000 $0 -$1,060,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $886,500 $886,500 $0 $75,058 $471,442 $340,000 $0 $0 $0 DSIP-Supervision & Engineering $7,220,000 $7,432,438 $212,438 $686,540 $896,402 $861,823 $1,200,000 $1,201,318 $1,273,080 $1,313,275 E DSIP-GIS Expansion $8,210,000 $3,444,363 -$4,765,637 $292,328 $3,152,035 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 E DSIP-EL Lighting Inventory $500,000 $431,681 -$68,319 $0 $431,681 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $88,900,000 $69,745,138 -$19,154,862 $4,882,668 $10,796,122 $9,289,270 $8,953,000 $11,007,318 $12,346,558 $13,720,202 Cumulative Budgeted Cost (Actual, Forecasted & Planned) $4,882,668 Budgeted Cost (Actual, Forecasted & Planned) $15,678,790 $24,968,060 $33,921,060 $44,928,378 $57,274,936 $70,995,138 Electric Amortization $2,532,412 $2,532,413 $2,532,413 $2,532,413 $2,532,413 Gas Amortization $603,346 $603,346 $603,346 $603,346 $603,346 Total Annual Budget $12,425,028 $12,088,759 $14,143,077 $15,482,317 $16,855,961 Financial Targets Based on 5 year Plan $14,143,077 $15,482,317 $16,855,961 Delta $0 $0 $0 142 Beyond DSIP Anticipated Infrastructure Investment Planned Cost - By Year E/G Task Name E E E E E E G G G G G G G E E DSIP Poles DSIP Cable DSIP Circuits (Rural Reliability Improvements) DSIP Capacity DSIP Substations DSIP UG Equip Repair DSIP Gas One Plan DSIP Gas Business Districts DSIP Zone Valves DSIP Farm Taps DSIP Gas Service Stubs DSIP Gas Line Under Structure DSIP Inside Mtr Serv Repl DSIP Automation DSIP Line Code Corrections DSIP DIMP DSIP Other TOTALS TOTAL $25,000,000 $78,750,000 $5,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $25,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $10,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $143,750,000 Current 5 yr Plan 2018 $5,000,000 $15,750,000 $1,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $5,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $28,750,000 $24,000,000 2019 PLANNED 2020 $5,000,000 $15,750,000 $1,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $5,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $28,750,000 Electric • Second 10 year Cycle of Pole Replacement (20 – 30,000 poles) $5M per yr • Complete 2nd phase of the10 year plan of Cable replacement $15.7M per yr • Continue rural worst circuit program $1M per yr • Complete Substation Automation / Communication Gas • Continue to mitigate High risk Blocks $5M per year 143 $5,000,000 $15,750,000 $1,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $5,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $28,750,000 2021 $5,000,000 $15,750,000 $1,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $5,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $28,750,000 2022 $5,000,000 $15,750,000 $1,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $5,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $28,750,000 Beyond DSIP Anticipated O&M Cost Planned Cost - By Year PLANNED E/G Task Name TOTAL 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 E DSIP-Pole Inspections $4,750,000 $950,000 $950,000 $950,000 $950,000 $950,000 E DSIP-Line Clearance $6,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,200,000 $1,200,000 $1,200,000 $1,200,000 E DSIP-OH Repair from Patrol P2 $1,500,000 $500,000 $250,000 $250,000 $250,000 $250,000 E DSIP-Rural Reliability Improvements $500,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 E DSIP-System Automation $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 E DSIP-Substation Upgrade & Improvements $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 E DSIP-Underground Equipment Repair $2,350,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $250,000 $300,000 G Gas One Plan $2,500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 $500,000 G DSIP-Dist Integrity Mgmt Prog $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 G DSIP-Zone Valve Installation $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 G DSIP-Non-Business Inside Mtr G DSIP-Gas Line Damage Prevention G G $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $5,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 DSIP-Farm Tap Rebuild $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 DSIP- Gas Stub Removal $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 G DSIP-Gas Lines Under Structures $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 G DSIP-Repairs G1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 O DSIP-Supervision & Engineering $3,000,000 $600,000 $600,000 $600,000 $600,000 $600,000 E DSIP-GIS Expansion $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 E DSIP-EL Lighting Inventory TOTAL Current 5 year plan Electric O&M Estimated $3M per year Gas O&M Estimated $1.5M per year $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $25,600,000 $5,350,000 $5,200,000 $5,300,000 $4,850,000 $4,900,000 $3,905,309 Distribution Segmentation •Under Evaluation – Estimated $4.0M • Impact estimated at eight min SAIDI. 10 20 5 0 0 YEAR 145 2019 40 2018 15 2017 60 2016 20 2015 80 2014 25 2013 100 2012 30 2011 120 2010 35 2009 140 2008 40 2007 Distribution (mins) 160 Transmission (mins) D. SEGMENTATION SAIDI Impact: 8 mins TOTAL DIST. TRANS. Linear (TOTAL) Linear (DIST.) Linear (TRANS.) Gas Distribution – GAS ONE Plan •Combines all of the components of DSIP into one plan • • • • • • • Main components: Inside meterfits Stubs Lines under structures Pre-1950 services Components combined into blocks Each component is risk ranked giving a block a total risk ranking • Currently approx 7000 blocks in the database with elements of these components •Planned implementation in 2015 within DSIP • Better Planning and efficient construction • Better risk mitigation 146 Longer Term- Distribution Infrastructure Investment Electric • Substation Equipment Investment – Plan under development • South Dakota Version of DSIP (Poles and UG) • $15M - $25M incremental over the next 10 years • Other infrastructure to be evaluated • Conductor • Lack of Neutrals Gas • Adyl A (pre 1970) – pipe replacement ($15M - $25M) • Other DIMP ($20M - $30M) • Continue with Gas One plan - Higher risk blocks 147