UK Space Conference 2013
Cities of the Future
Jeremy Watson CBE FREng
July 2013
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Arup
• A trust, not a public company
• 11,000 employees worldwide
• 90 offices
• Multidisciplinary
• Driven by belief in benefiting society and delivering the best quality of
work
• Investing to develop knowledge and capability
Research a key differentiator, together with Design Excellence and
Quality Engineering
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Research Champions with Design & Technical Executives in each Region
Close linkage with Foresight and Skills/Knowledge groups
Dedicated research investment fund, internal and external working
Example: Investment in contactless recharging of electric vehicles
Relevance of space technologies to cities
Many applications to be explored
• Earth observation
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GIS-based services – planning, etc.
Land use
Surveying (surface movement)
Atmospheric chemistry
• Navigation
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GPS
Location-based services
• Telecommunications
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Sat phones
Data services
Current breakdown of Space turnover
Opportunity?
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City Scale Contexts
• Products
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Personal devices
Smart cards
Cars
• Buildings
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Domestic
Commercial
Public
• Infrastructure
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Transport
Utilities
• Districts
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Communities
Entire cities
Cities: Systems of systems
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Cities: Systems of systems
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Cities: Systems of systems
Acknowledgement: David Birch, Imperial College SynCity project
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Two City Challenges for Public and
Private Sectors:
Building Sustainability and Social Care
Drivers and Trends: CO2
Keeling curve
CO2 rise derived from
Antarctic ice core
measurements and readings
from Mauna Loa, Hawaii.
James Watt’s steam engine
developments took place in
the 1750s
Around 45% of all present
carbon emissions come
from existing buildings, with
~25% from homes
• Tipping point – 500ppm? Currently 400ppm (Scripps Institution)
Ice caps melt, more sunlight absorbed, trapped CH4 & CO2 released
Research under the Living with Environmental Change programme; NERC, ESRC,
EPSRC
Temperature data & modelling
Met Office
Observed temperatures
Simulated temperatures
Summer 2003:
normal by 2040s, cool by 2080s
Stott Nature 2004 – updated to 2007 – HadGEM1
Priorities for the Built Environment
Adaptation (time-frame 0 to 50+ years) – extreme weather
o
o
o
Global temperature increase has already led to seasonal extremes; 23,000 excess
deaths in EU in 2003, ~900 in UK
Need to design buildings to ensure that compliance with high code levels does not
make homes unsafe in extreme weather
Greater incidence of intense rain with urbanisation - pluvial flooding
Energy cost / shortages (time frame 5 to indefinite years)
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o
o
Global depletion of fossil fuels and exhaustion of indigenous fossil fuels – but
Shale Gas a mid-term benefit
Drive to de-carbonise central energy resources – need to ‘go nuclear’
Need to minimise energy consumption in buildings
Mitigation (time frame 0 – 200+ years)
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o
o
o
We have to live with effects of already-emitted carbon for 200+ years
Ultimately we must bring carbon concentration to an equilibrium point
Possible active sequestration – CCS plus atmospheric abatement
Buildings viewed at district-level should be carbon neutral or negative
Assisted Living
Our Aging Demography
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The UK has a growing and ageing population
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15.4m people have at least one long term condition in England
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Numbers will grow (250+% increase in 50 years) also growth in multiple
conditions
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The aging population consumes 70% of health and social care budget
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People want to be supported to live independently (minimise hospital
admissions
But
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People aged 50+ spent £276bn in 2008 – about 44% of total UK family
spending
Projection of Economic Impact from Aging
Percentage of
GDP (EU27)
14
12
~100%
increase
10
8
2007
6
2060
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2
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Source: EC '2009 Ageing Report:
economic and budgetary projections
for the EU-27 Member States (20082060)'
Social Care
“Unless we do something, by 2030 all of the authority’s
revenue will have to be spent on care of the elderly and
disabled” – Outer London local authority
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Assisted Living can keep people in their own homes safely and for longer, at
reduced cost
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A combination of sensors (including GPS), IT systems and service packages
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Trials by DH (the Whole Systems tele-health demonstrator) showed:
o
o
o
o
o
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Mortality reduced by 45%
Emergency admissions reduced by 20%
A&E visits reduced by 15%
Bed days reduced by 14%
Elective admissions reduced by 14%
Research needed in systems-scale deployment and business models
Relevant Research Council initiatives: MRC – Life-long Health and Well-being, TSB – ALIP,
DALLAS (Delivering Assisted Living Lifestyles at Scale)
Assisted Living – a systems approach
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Sensors
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Local
intelligence
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Communications
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Real-time
services
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Tracking
individuals
(management of
Dementia)
Acknowledgement: Plum 2010
Earth observation
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Image: Jenny Mottar, NASA Headquarters
Earth observation: Emission plumes
Concentrations of carbon monoxide at 15,000 feet: (a) March 10, (b) March 15, 2000. Measurements taken by the Measurements of
Pollution in The Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument, onboard the Terra satellite. MOPITT is now operating well in orbit, and global
maps of carbon monoxide (CO), an important tropospheric pollutant, are being produced
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Acknowledgement: US Climate Change Science Program
Earth observation: Urban Heat Island (UHI)
In 2003 there were ~900 excess deaths directly attributable to overheating in the
UK, and ~25,000 across Europe
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Acknowledgement: ARCADIA: Adaptation and Resilience in Cities
Data integration in Cities
Mapping Energy Efficiency of
Buildings
Flood
simulation
Exploration of
multiple agendas in
city development
(transport, housing,
employment etc)
Acknowledgement: Professor T Fernando, University of Salford
Mapping social data
(eg. Crimes)
Public
Consultations
Space weather
Effects:
• Auroras
• Ionised particle bombardment of
satellites (damage to IT & PV)
• Disturbance of magnetosphere
• Fault currents induced in surface
transmission lines
Conditions on the Sun and in the solar
wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and
thermosphere that can influence the
performance and reliability of space-borne
and ground-based technological systems
and can endanger human life or health
Coronal mass ejection: 20/06/13
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Static and dynamic interdependencies
• City infrastructure elements are interdependent, and can be
viewed statically and dynamically
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Antagonistic
Synergistic
• Engineering and business model challenges
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Value aggregation
• Dynamics
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Optimisation of capacity
Collaborative streetworks
Synergies in Smart City services
Real-time service
business 1
Telemedicine
Telecare
Real-time service
business 2
Energy
optimisation
Security
Design for behavioural outcomes
Cities & Districts
• Challenges
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Encouraging wellbeing
Reducing energy use
Minimising street crime
Creating social inclusion: ethographic/demographic
• Technologies
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District modelling and simulation
Agent-based crowd behaviour simulation
Earth observation
The pattern of street robbery over five years in a London borough set against the background of a
space syntax analysis of the street network in which potential movement through each street segment
is shown by the colouring form red for high through to blue for low. It is clear that the pattern of
robbery relates strongly to the ‘foreground; network of red and orange streets.
Acknowledgement: Space Syntax
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Cities in the 22nd century ?
Designed as a data- and physically-integrated, ‘organic’ system
High density, low rise, mixed use, ‘walkable’
District-level thermal and electrical energy from waste and renewables
De-carbonised electricity grid – nuclear and large-scale renewables, with distributed energy storage
and HVDC links to Europe
Water recycling and re-use; local pluvial management
Local, hyper-automated manufacture of consumables, including food
Service provision augments ultra-durable capital consumer goods
Adapted dietary habits and food requirements
Reduced population, post demographic bulge, pervasive behaviour change
New work styles enabled by ultra-high bandwidth ICT
UK Space Conference 2013
Cities of the Future
Jeremy Watson CBE FREng
July 2013
28