MARITIME TRAFFIC ENGINEERING CONFERENCE
19-22 OCTOBER, MALMÖ
M A R C I N P R Z Y WA RT Y
I N ST I T U T E O F M A R I N E T R A F F I C E N G I N E E R I N G
M A R I T I M E U N I V E RS I T Y O F S ZC Z EC I N
MTE 09
MTE 09
P  Pg  Pc
where:
P = probability of accident,
Pg = geometrical probability, probability of such situation that
accident will occur if no manoeuvre be made,
Pc = causation probability, probability of failing to avoid the
accident.
MTE 09
Based on the Molecular Collision Theory
D 2 1852
F

L 2 sin 
2
where:
F = Mean Free Path of single ship [Nm],
D = average distance between ships [Nm], measure of traffic
density,
L = length of ship [m],
θ = angle between track of the single ship and stream of ships.
MTE 09
X
Pg 
F
where:
Pg = geometrical probability,
X = actual length of path to be considered for a single ship
[Nm],
F = Mean Free Path of single ship [Nm].
MTE 09
nc
Pre 
np
where:
Pre = real collision probability,
nc = number of collisions in a given time,
np = number of ships passing in a given time.
MTE 09
Pre
Pc 
Pg
where:
Pc = causation probability
Pre = real collision probability
Pg = geometrical probability
MTE 09
Causation probabilities:
Type of encounter
situation
Causation
probability
Remarks
0.000518
without TSS
0.000315
with TSS
0.000111
without TSS
0.000095
with TSS
Head on
Crossing
MTE 09
Assumptions:
 Traffic modelled by shipping lanes.
 Traffic uncorrelated.
 Encounter situation when CPA is less than 0,5Nm.
 Area of interest divided into large number of calculation
locations.
 The collision frequency is given by:
f c  ne Pgv pc, gv  Prv pc,rv 
MTE 09
Collision while on
dangerous course
The probabilities of collision are
derived by fault trees analysis.
Failure on other
ship
Research area:
 within latitudes 50°N and 60°N and
within longitudes 0°E and 10°E,
 The geographical distribution of
collision frequencies is calculated
on grid-net with a resolution of 1
minute north-south by 2 minutes
east-west (approximately 1Nm by
1Nm)
Incapacitation
Failure on own
ship
Technical/
operational failure
Propulsion and
steering failure
Ship control error
Error related to
human
performance
Error related to
incapacitation
Internal vigilance
error with respect
to incapacitation
Close quarter
measures on other
ship ineffective
Own ship to
give way
External vigilance
error with respect
to incapacitation
Human
performance error
Internal vigilance
error with respect
to human
performance
External vigilance
error with respect
to human
performance
MTE 09
Causation probabilities:
Causation
probability
Remarks
0.0000848
good visibility
0.0000683
good visibility, within
VTS zone
0.00058
poor visibility
0.000464
poor visibility, within
VTS zone
MTE 09
Assumptions:
 Factor related to machinery and steering is negligible.
 Tasks of OOW described by Bayesian Network.
 Traffic presented by traffic streams.
 Three scenarios: crossing waterways, intersecting waterways,
parallel waterways.
 Exemplary calculations were carried out for Ro-Ro passenger
ferry on route between Cadiz and the Canary Island.
MTE 09
Causation probabilities:
Type of encounter
situation
Causation
probability
Head on
0.000049
Intersection
0.00013
Crossing
0.00013
MTE 09
MTE 09
Model of navigator
behaviour
Model of ships
dynamics
(before and after accident)
(before and after accident)
Model of ships
stream
Modele of external
conditions
(wind, current and waves)
10
0 90 80 70 60
Model of collision
collision / grounding / striking
ship on the way / drifting
Grounding
Striking with fixed
object
Fire
Collision
`
Modele of
accident
consequences
MTE 09
Traffic data:
MTE 09
Traffic data:
58
57,5
57
56,5
56
55,5
55
54,5
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
54
MTE 09
Collision model - distances of reaction:
Type of encounter
situation
Good visibility Restricted
visibility
Head on – port/port side
2.5Lmax
5Lmax
Head on – strb/strb side
5Lmax
10Lmax
Overtaking
2.5Lmax
5Lmax
Crossing
5Lmax
10Lmax
MTE 09
Collision model – number of encounter situation:
 About 840000/year
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Overtaking
Crossing
Head On
MTE 09
Collision model – number of real collisions:
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
MTE 09
Collision model – probability of collision:
nc
Pc 
ne
where:
Pc = probability of collision in single encounter situation,
nc = number of collisions (real data),
ne = number of encounter situations.
MTE 09
Collision model – probability of collision:
5E-06
4E-06
3E-06
2E-06
0,000001
0
Overtaking
Crossing
Head On
MTE 09
Results:
6600000
6500000
6400000
6300000
6200000
shore line
6100000
contour 10m
collisions
6000000
5900000
250000
350000
450000
550000
650000
750000
850000
950000
1050000
1150000
MTE 09
Grounding model
where:
A-accident
G-geometric
HE-human error
SA-serious accident
0.4
f(x)
0.3
0.2
4500
s = 0.1065D + 476.12
s
0.1
R 2 = 0.7595
4000
sl =1,0km
sr=1,5km
3500
0
3000
-3
2500
2000
1500
1000
15000
D [m]
20000
25000
30000
35000
-2
-1
0
1
2
x [km]
3
MTE 09
Simplified fire model
Fire on board probability:
Pf= 5.18*10^-08 1/km
1
P
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
mean time to extinquish [h]
0
0
5
10
Time to extinquish fire
15
20
25
30
ADRIYATIK CASE
MTE 09
Results - groundings
MTE 09
Results – fire on board
MTE 09
Model of oil spills
0.7
0.6
Tanker size [DWT]
P
Collision
0.6
0-2000
2000-5000
5000-20000
20000-50000
50000-BaltMax
Grounding
0.5
0.5
Probability
Fire
0.4
0.3
0.4
Collision
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0
0-500
0
2000-5000
5000-20000
20000-50000
50000BaltMax
Ships size [DWT]
100010000
1000050000
500000100000
100000BaltMax
0.7
0.8
Tanker size [DWT]
Tanker size [DWT]
0.7
0.6
0-2000
2000-5000
5000-20000
20000-50000
50000-BaltMax
0.5
0.4
Fire on board
0.3
0.2
0-2000
2000-5000
5000-20000
20000-50000
50000-BaltMax
0.5
Probability
0.6
Probability
0-2000
500-1000
Spill size [tons]
0.4
0.3
Grounding
0.2
0.1
0.1
0
0
0-500
500-1000
Spill size [tons]
100010000
1000050000
500000100000
100000BaltMax
0-500
500-1000
Spill size [tons]
100010000
1000050000
500000100000
100000BaltMax
Statistical oil spill model (based on more than 1000 accidents from 3 independent sources)
MTE 09
Bunker oil spill model
Probability of bunker spill:
0.12
0.017
- P (spill after collision)
5000
- P (spill after grounding)
4500
- P (spill after fire)
4000
-5
v = 152 exp(3*10 DWT)
3500
Bunker spill [tons]
0.125
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
Ships size in DWT [tons]
100000
120000
MTE 09
Oil spills:
6600000
6500000
6400000
[tons]
6300000
6600000
<200
6200000
200-500
6500000
500-1000
6100000
1000-5000
6400000
>5000
6000000
[tons]
6300000
<200
5900000
200-500
250000
350000
6200000
450000
500-1000
1000-5000
6100000
>5000
6000000
5900000
250000
350000
450000
550000
650000
750000
850000
950000
1050000
1150000
550000
650000
750000
850000
950000
1050000
1150000
MTE 09
Model of navigational accidents
Underwater pipelines risk assessment
MTE 09
550000
coast line
izobath 10m
540000
Model of navigational
accidents
Offshore windfarms
risk assessment
Balitc Sea
approach to Świnoujście
polish EEZ border
530000polish teritorial waters border
3 alternatives of wind turbine farm
localization
520000ship's courses
1
places of main engine failures
during 100 years of simulation
510000example simulated accidents of
no.3 alternative
3
2
500000
490000
480000
470000
Poland
Świnoujście
460000
[m] 750000
760000
770000
780000
790000
800000
810000
MTE 09
Model of navigational accidents
Slovenian VTS CBA
2744
2742
2740
2738
2736
2734
2732
2730
800
805
810
815
820
825
MTE 09
Polish LNG terminal
6280000
depth contour 10m
6230000
coast
routes
G4out
6180000
G1in
collisions
G1out
fires
6130000
G4in
G2out G3out
S2out
S3
6080000
S2in
G2in G3in
6030000
S1
POLAND
Gdansk
Swinoujscie
5980000
250000
6280000
350000
450000
550000
650000
750000
depth contour 10m
6230000
coast
G4out
6180000
routes
G1in
G1out
groundings
6130000
G4in
G2out G3out
S2out
S3
6080000
S2in
G2in G3in
6030000
5980000
250000
POLAND
S1
Gdansk
Swinoujscie
350000
450000
550000
650000
750000
MARITIME TRAFFIC ENGINEERING CONFERENCE
19-22 OCTOBER, MALMÖ
THANK YOU FOR YOUR
ATTENTION
MTE 09
Oil spill model:
PS  PA PA / OS
where:
Ps = probability of oil spill,
PA = probability of accident,
PA/OS = conditional probability of oil spill if accident occur
MTE 09
Oil spill model:
0.6
Collision
Grounding
0.5
Fire
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0-2000
2000-5000
5000-20000
Ships size [DWT]
20000-50000
50000BaltMax
MTE 09
Oil spill model:
0.7
Tanker size [DWT]
0.6
0-2000
2000-5000
5000-20000
20000-50000
50000-BaltMax
Probability
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0-500
500-1000
Spill size [tons]
100010000
1000050000
500000100000
100000BaltMax