K:amj:ii.rft~*mI

advertisement
*2flU/l%~/\+/\S:fI*
m23~38 Jf
m.:::.+~m=W!
K:a.m.j:ii.rft~*mI*~.~
E~J:$1r
.if.?:j€i
~
*- ~ j..5"Z.#f 1E Jlff Jlff -k
!
tiii
~
~~lJi. ::t~tJ lIm~fflttJ 5t1l0~~lH!~
, f'Fm5tfJTIIm *ftji-ffm~ ~
~o9~*IIm~x~~~~~~~~~~*~~~I~'B~*~m~
J
]' '8:tEI!mI~~'U::.~:tt£flL$!i!~.1.J
0
@~'iiiWlIm~J&ma9~rmfrJ~~IIm-7C"T
a9~M'8*'~~~$!i!9~~~~~OO'9~~IIm1.JfrJ~~~~~~ft
fI~~
, f(fi'8a9*IIm~xpJT]IjjCi~~~$!i!tJt~ , -tl1&,~:tEllt~~T~*f!ll1
~o
fmlUiiJ : *limm...
"Jl:I:::"
~
, §u
~
.:.e. '
tp;t;*~9~~
,
~f*fm1*i
-=­
is
-tLtLt:S:ftLBCPjtCP:9(~.~ClI~~1::E
r+li:kJ ¥~*cp 'ffl!:te7
~~ID~*!.l:it.i!lrPJ~;fOl¥J~{i5 ' ftBlqjfF¥f~te: r ~~1ti!l~1::E~~
~:tfuW!:~!IlP'3 ' 1::Ei!&m ' *~~~~]t~1!ffS~~l¥J~Jm ' t!t:W-l:~fi1Jilte:m
~Jfl¥J:fr1t;fO*J3.-El ' :k~~r~l¥Jril{*j~~m.:kfffi.x7*~Ul¥JWijj~ J 1 RU~f& '
:k~ rilf*l¥J~~~~mcpjtJi-~ili1iiI1t cp*~ 1¥; te:f~l¥J~Jl!1j , fffi :k~JHZ~rnJ~
~~m=+-ilt*Ccpjt~~~~l¥J::t~;fIfJ! 1::E'Jf~1TmtJl: ' ~-tLtLt:S:f
[9 B lI~~~1:Jro~ffUlwr ' ;fOffUlwr*!~~m~ (Boris Yeltsin) ~ilt:W-~~
1t;f09itJt~~~Jf~J¥~~~~-El!i!faJj , m$jtlqj9it~ riIDrPJ=+-ilt*{3~~
~{'Fm~ril1'*' J ; 1qjS:fliB $~*~~m;o&t51 (Jacques Chirac) iit:Iro~~tI?-: '
jjf}J~E§" ffli9itJt riIDrPJ ~=+-ilt*cl¥J~iIfim~ril1* J ; + B ""f 1U ' lI~l%IDJ
0
0
r rI~~:t£CP~+li*~¥!H~ J
/
­
,)tlltl (i'fm) .
19971f: 9
F.!
13
El . Jl& A 10 •
24
ra::;'~~!fZ.~~~~r5-~Sjj
,
r~~ti!i'!i;IIIt}~1~rm1*J
lLA~~R'$~.g*.£W • • • • A.fi~~.~'
o-lL
• •~~7
r$~- • • • • A.~.r5-~~J '~ffl~~nOO~=+-m~~.
~'~JE~~~~tf:~~rmf*~J.~A~Il.~~$U; Pl~7\R~~.MEfOJ
, ~:1J-9&Pl~~-*~;gf;\PJ~lHlf* '
1JD5$f;\PJ~1:E~1iI~][f:~~r5-1'F ;
, n~1.%f'F~$~mtr'EU~][.A~
~J:~~~1Jra::;~B* ' ~:1J1:5:&m~~,~f;\PJl!Irm1*~I&tW ' ~noo~=+­
m*c ' 9&hin r;fDzp:W~~~1Z~filf'F~1~lHlf*J ¥.Ilt ' $~B;fD3::m
**~ (Bill Clinton)
rera::;,
0
w~*~~n7~PlID~~~~rm~'
h
$~~~~~lliW~.
o
~~!&m~~:mJJ?,'Jr1:~ (structural realism'
realism) 1:5:&l!I~t'D~$*~h:it7Hfr3~AA:1£
Jf '
tzgffij#H~flt~pq~~1TmJJ~~.W~N$U
frt§PlL~
'
, neo­
l!I~!&m~:m~ti
'
$~~*~~}3<:WlItnIDfli1t)
, *:x"~~1MIf:tgIDfliJt$~*~~5t~~ffltf: '
ntn$~*l!I~}5t~~~WtJI5!i'!i;
Pl8;j~I1tm
0
JJ?,'Jr1:~~tiJfJ'G~ ~!&m~ 1:rfrt '
(classical realism) W~tfllJJ?,'Jr1:~~*~~~
f:f.::. m- , l!I*${J'
0
fiJ-ESPDliIA~~l!I*Ji~
0
0
l!I*~l!I~!&Yt1mtm~8JgfiJ-ESWtiJfJ'GJt~
, ~rjJ5in~~:ti£f11:
0
tiJfJ'G~n1:El!I*frPIJ-liI!]!!titR:*~~f~~LJ:
0
0
, 1t@
l!I~!&m~
Ii UI "'. ,,-rT1
~~~M~~'l!I*m• •M~~~~• • • ~~*'
~om.::.,mh¥J:°l!l*~~*mhmt*~~§~'l!I~~.~*Jf~
~!&J&M*lt~
, ~Z $ *m,~5$$nt6b~~¥A1TJ;JRf~d~~37:3:: ' [Z9lf;tl!l*&'3Y!
{t(~El i3h:it*llnUttU:a 2
0
2 -S~~"::l::'Ht9{-'CRlf{ffi Hans J, Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations: the Struggle for Power and
Peace (New York: Knopf, 1948 and later editions); E. H. Carr, The Twenty Years' Crisis: An Introduction
to the Study of International Relations (London: Macmillan, 1939); Henry Kissinger, A World Restored:
Castlereagh. Metlernich. and the Problems of Peace, 1812-1822 (Boston: Houghton Mimin, 1957);
Martin Wight, Power Politics <Harmondsworth, Great Britain: Penguin, 1978); and Arnold Wolfers, Dis­
cord and Collaboration: Essays on International Politics (Baltimore, Md.: The Johns Hopkins University
Press, 1962),
-a-n
2
flj
*Ei~.±j!iWr:p**Iil1i-3t~,1'i.V
25
\1£m
. 'lJmn (Kenneth N. Waltz) m{-\:;~ , 3 'lJ~
fUffl~~.*fO:tIJJfHfc~tG~. ' ~~~~Jt:t~~% ,:tIJJfOfU1£ttGr:f:t
{A~l~~},Jtr:f:t ' }]QfiHf~~fiHIJJ:5t~BtG~t~ , {'F~:5tf1T~*!:t1f.ff~tG
~~ a Mi.:fJtJf::t~IMH'~~~~:fJtJf::t~~*lU!ff~:tIJJ ' {S*]l!5~WijJ1IJJ
tGI~i~ , fflP}~~U~%:9;:3ktGEl~ ~~.*tG~*~*,§f?**1ttG~
J!£t1t
*~ft~**1t*:!ltGMi.o
§%'~~~mMi.~~W~~M*·~~*W~%~~AM*~W
~~7
~f!lBfl!
~;fifttOJ
f$}£f '
'svilig
.~~
Mi;ff1jlJt.tt~p)J~jm±
0
~.~~~t=r~tG~*
0
~~~mMi;ff1jf!f!ill1iifl~D*~~~l:tG$~~~l1ii
7Rl±:l$~pgtG:L}8Jfr$~~lfiU"F
neo­
~'f1
fUfl;)
eJJl
~
Q:
Z
'
12t~
. ~DfiiJ.~~:U::1J~f~l±:l~:U::tGBiLl! ~~~
.*pgtG.fflG{5}-=ftt!.*~Etllttjji±~{ttG~~ · !:t~~tG~~Mi;ff1j{~l±:l~~tG
BiLl! ; ftl!{MtGt=rmfrIEt'[1fr5L"Fm:fl-:U::tGtEHtJ1~~I'iJJj~Utt · ~IEt:5tfff~
~ftfr1211~pffJm**1tr:f:ttG:t~{lL . ~~*JtP'3$tG'I~Jl . ::tijIgTM~~~m
t=rmtG*Jl fr~~~M*l:~f!l[JJ:i.:tG*~% ' 12{Mzra~tG~JjU~frJt¥A
t=rtGJj]ijlg , ~frm-JtJJ:I;tG*/J\ ~~~mtGMi.~~~~~~¥tltG~~
-~:ff ' ::t~*liJfYi:~~~{~tG*~r~~~ , **1tr:f:tP'~fl~%tGffP~ , ~*~
t=r!fjjJtG~.~tt~/J\~tG~.*~§7 , ffflr:f:t/J\~%tG~~ , ~U~~tpj*~~
:5ttGi:t~JJ~r:f:tfr*~ , ~JjU*~.:!&*tG~% pff~~*~tG1iJ:i.:~**
ADtG§7pfO~Ji±tG*/J\ ' ~~tGfI:I; '*~~JfJJ '
, ~m¥i:U::
't1fOijIgJJ
Jt****1ttGMi. ' ~~Mi.EE~~JM#:kt~ , ~%~:tIJJtG:5t~Bp,~*fl
0
0
0
0
0
fflG'~~JM#:k~~~%*~~tG~*~~,~m-~~~,~m-~~Mi.~
~~JfJltG~.,:tIJJtG:5t~::t*~K~~~~Mi.tGm~~~,~~tG
~~~1IJJ:5t~B~t~~~~~tG~~t5.
:t~{lL
' ~~:u::~%!:t1f.1=r~
0
' fffl~~tG~~Mi:f~fO~%p,~~tG
Mi.~~7Czra~1i~~W ' WIEt1i!fjjJ~fjr:f:t
:5tf1T~%!:t1f.rr~tG~m~~*°fr~%ffi~~Wz~,~~:fJtJf::t~tpj
:tIJJff~m~*;ifr*tG::t~ § ~
.:f.~~
, t5.fJl.::t~~Utpj1lJJ~{'F* l'iJijlgf.tffltG
, EJl~tG~m%*it~Rfl~J3ttG:tIJJ ' ~*:!&*}tG§~~*:tIJJ ' fffl
*:9;~o~*~~.::t~~~.::t~:!&m*tG~~a
'lJ ~Wt5.pg1lJJ:5t~CtG~t~:5tf1T ' ~;g~jijY~tG~~~mMi.*:!&H
3
Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1979); Man the
Stale, and War: A Theoretical Analysis (New York: Columbia University Press, 1959); "Reflections on
Theory ofInternational Politics: A Response to My Critics," in Robert Keohane, ed., Neorealism and Its
Critics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1986), pp. 322-345.
r
26
,4m=~@w*~~*~~*~~~~~~~~~~~.~
oRPf}E{E~~~M~~9i]LM '
~I~*~~~m*~{t~f~
~~~m~~**~~*~~m*~&~o5
~]LM{)Jj!.fj7tfJT~ijgJJ
,•
~{)J~~KS~
,~.~.±~~~~
, ~~~*jFIH9i~JJtm
fjf~~~~~JfI~ , ~~tt.~ffl(J;1J:ttfj*l€~7 f~~~:ttfj{:v: ' WJ~J@Pf!rj:u::[I]2!z
¥j;)':ilff!~~~.~~~* ' {!tM!*ffl(JjJ
~~~~JW~J@P~~J'& '
~~.P3.!fl7G~~{tij [~~.*~~I!{t ' rm.!fl7G~I!{t${5}ift~1n'~.
'
.~f~tfj}\01f{~~f~
0
•
~JJ~~*o
;!t~
, ~~~*~Dli'J:~~J'& '
~*%~&I!~~~m
'
~)jUJ!~~3i:~
~~~~*~.o-nOO'~~~*~~~~~~~WJ~~~:ttfjlli@~~
~~m~J' E'rr~J!~.~~~M5E)ti~~"*, {g~J!tN*&I!~.~JJ
; ~-nOO
'ffXmwr{)J~~~@wm-*JJJJ~9i~
±~JW)~j!.fjm*~~. JJ
,
0
m= ' t!i3!E9j£[I]ifA~9i;fl~#~*~ , ~{)J~~trj;flJJZ}S~;J;JU~~5i:
~c
0
~®ill~~~~~~ijgB~~t3fJtlij~lf~@W-mE*~
tt.ftl!fr~~*~±~~~mlN~&:ff!
*lM
,
' ffii Ji ift~trjtt.{ii!.fr~~/J\~~lf~~~~
0
:l&f~
, ~El83±~~>g~~±ft$rj~~*ffl(Wz}s~mflf~ , 6
tQm~~~:E][
~~m~~~~~'~~~~~~~~~Wz}s':l&*~~~~~~~m
~~*~~~ft*,~;!tJ!~~3i:~~~*~.o
~.±~fjti~~ti5.~7t ' rm:tE*5.m.±~'M'~iftff:tE7t1l&~~ftH
m- , ~1n'~~~m*5.~i:±~ . ffili:1ffj{~~)r:±~~Jj~i:±~)jrj 7
1Il&'[:±~ffili~~~~~Ii**5.J!*~1tig:g~{5tIll&~tN~ ,
,~
~~Jm~~r.a ' ~~-a:rijg'[:±fh~ , ~.lct~JI:±~~~ , 1t~~j!.fjJ)l:.J[:±~
~~j;)'~*3i:~ 8 ~-r~~:1ff!U~~tbli3i:~~~~$ , ~KS~~~~ft*~
~
0
0
0
4
~~ Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory ofInternational Polities, Ch. 8 & Ch. 9.
5
Kenneth N. Waltz, "The Emerging Structure of International Politics," International Security, Vol. 18,
No.2 (Fall 1993), pp. 44-79.
6 ~~~~ffi~~~~~~~r~~~ffir~~ffi~~~~J~»Z~~J ,ooa~m~,
36 ~ .
12'Wl • ~~ 864' 12 f3 • JlI 1-22 •
m
7
m
~~ Jack Snyder, Myths ofEmpire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell
University, 1991), pp. 11-12 'fgJltfi~~'6'.1lliJ[tzfieffl
8
'
flj~f\¥.~'
~[] John J. Mearsheimer, "Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War: International
Security, Vol. 15, No.3 (Summer 1990), pp. 5-55.
--~ 5Jf ?J£ flj
Jjj~lIt$
.,,,}J
*Eflfj,Yt1:¥iWrp;tt:*~51-x~ rnJ
27
.-' r'
::f&H'&<3 [~1ti~~!'I!t~ , 7 M~~il&m~ff1iB"J*jf , gtfm3t:5t~llit~~B"J
~1t [?91[t~*J!!t.R~l)jj~tt!'l!t~ · ::t~ttM'~~B"Jft@~1~ 9 ~=~
B"J~~m:~ft~~.~~1:Y~B"J[?9* ' ~m~~f~~B"J~~::t5iHftiJ5t~a
,[~15t~~.~*1:Y~B"Jl&::t~[?9* ' ~~B"Jm:h5t~:1JAftij~ttM'ttt}a]B"J
ffi4'~.JE :'B-~~~j[Ug~mml(;ftB"J*Jj~fj~ , ::t~[fI~~~*1:Y~
B"J#cJE[?9* ' 10 ~*~[?9J!!ml(;ftffiH~H:l::fFi'UB"J&J!! ml(;ftB"Jfj~::ffJi~1l
~ml(;"*~B"J~~m:h ' J!1tS't¥Uf~J[f!$~ , Jj(.:hit~~fJtB"J~.
mft'k~fS:!
1.I.j/,\\ii;C\~
~!l1~/fbP
0
~~fJim
lj1E:fiJB&:
:'~®
0
0
'M~II
0
0
~ti::!<>.
:i.R~-.::t:..
£ .. *m&J~ltJ~llica9~tm
iJ1t~
ft$fJ
cp~ti~!'I!t1&~~f~JS]B"JWJS1ii
::%fj~
' ~m:ft*~m:hB"Jm:if~~JUAAMJi~ ,
, W/J\4'
, lW*~mH:ltJ-"fB"J~~: r ~~glT-t1JB"J'[~~lEft
ill~~ff1i:tJJ,.::t~B"JI\i!~MI31'PJ
0
~!'I!t1&cp~~mH:l~~1tB"Jm:~
Yg~
ttWffii~JfMiB"J~}a]~
~M
~~otttwm}a]~*~=~~W'~~~W'E~~W'~JfMi~~~~~
cpB"J-11I · ::fff'8;&~#tU~~ , ~~:tg~11I:/JD~~ffi~~H:l~ Pfri3~~~ ,
~t$
0
cp~j$:-~
0
'
Cp~=1'~lJZ{J£E3
;&~fl~j$:-~
0
J II illf!E&J!!H:lticp
~B"JE3~W3~f
' 1El~~Of5JitJ£-~Jj? {5J~~~~1t? 1JJ*:tgj'lftB"Jpg~
r +~*J B"Jil&m¥IH5CP , ti~~~1tB"J~~~::f~ , ~:tgM1Jm¥U
'f:;
0
r~~~}a]B~~~'~~:h.m:if5t~~~,tttWlE~~~~~:1J~~
,~
~
0
if~}a]B"J~J£~~:fjtW3B"J
'
~~B"J~fj
0
J 12 ftllt '
CP~5$~f~}a]B"J
~fm~~¥l!ltE
' tttWi1B"J*!'I!t~OJtJ~~ , 1El~f~1illii1B"J1ti~1JJl1t~~
cp ~~~m~$~Mft ' =~*!'I!t1&::R~a~~~rm1*~+~4B"J~~f~}a]~*E
M ' fffifl. '8x~tt~:tg~~tttW*!'I!tB"J'~15t-"fH:l:EJtB"J ' [?91Itftil!JJIBj~~1t
:1J~~fmB"J~fjcp , &;'JEl1tff-~F'~~~fbbB"J~11l~W3 ftlltW3rJ][?9~
Jf!iZSffiM ' tttWOJ.!2J,~1J)l¥U-@l~:fjt~W3B"Jffi4'[fI~$~ 1ElCP~Fi'U~g~
~t!tW~~;yJ§tt~A~fm ' ~D.§;;~ , ~Ji±~*~~~ifij . *E5iiH1!iJ£1ti~~
0
0
0
9 ~~ Charles L. Glaser, "Realists as Optimists: International Security, Vol. 19, No, 3 (Winter 19941
95); Stephen Van Evera, "Primed for Peace: Europe After the Cold War," International Security, VoL
15, No, 3 (Winter 1990/91), pp,7-57.
10 Stephen Walt, The Origins of Alliance (Ithaca, N,y': Cornell University Press, 1987), especially pp,
263-266.
-~
L._-_ II
§fI/J,2jS. r 1ill~%~f[]Mi1jj\lro~mJ
12
cpjt;cp*3t*!iff~~' +l1!t:kJ;,HI~.¥jef-l:l.H.
'tI\I/J\Zf.jel.H (~=~) . ffii 353 '
UeJ?: : AJ%ttlll&~± '
1995 if)
'Wi 34
0
28
~$~~o
-1111-t::;!rf.IZ!l}jn~'§!;IDJrl=l~fR~
, :illZ~~7 r ~~i±tW?§4l!{t~D~:tL
~~~~ff J l¥J~i!l§aA ' ~1Jik:iCAI~**~*Im{*,l¥JmmEjl , :ftmbi±tW:fP
~{tl¥J§S!~~O~~~JT~ffl¥J~:tL ' ~*~:tL~I¥J~1'I~~Jiti!il¥J*~~ ,
M~~~~*~~~~m'&~M~n~~n~~*mik:~~~~~~'
::t5&J;)Jtl~t5~mH@Ji~:tL;f!lEi7m~D{§fx
' ij~~jj! , :fPjj!~IDlili!lfp~
*~~.*~ou~~~#B~~~I¥J::t • • ~'Ji~~M~r:ftmbJ
~~{tl¥J§S!~ " ~1J71q]!rf.11A I¥J r
J ~1a~&% ' ~rJ5$IDlil:fP~fiHt~
filEi±tmJl¥JJ{!It: r ~~lfi~'Iti: ' 1HI~~'Iti:~i!lft*Ji.~iWft5~ ,!JI*~~
0
~~~I¥J~ftJfn~ttt5$" :fP~{bll~~,~1'I~rj~i±tWI¥J~D~' filE.~
o
J 14
-1111J\!rf.-t::;A ~#~~Itt~~~ r ~~I¥J~~jj J
'~~:fP~{tl¥J~
,~:j3}tttJJ07~*If~H*,I¥JIZ9*' r ~~~*~{*,~J3~~U{t1J~~~ , ~~1Il!
:lLEl ' ij~i!lEl5$ , mIDlil~~I¥J~~IE~JJ05$ " ~~~~~~1mJfntt1
5$ , IE~nlGffi%~~~_iJJ:I¥J-5Zm~nlt :fP~{tm~~*~~i£~{tl¥J:f,f
i\'I~~ , f~~.~Zra'I¥J;fEll:[1t<ff~ffliJ~Ji-&JJO~ , fu1'IWJ~i±tWI¥J~D
, ,fI1E.~~ " *itli±tW~~~IZ9*IE~::flTttt~ " J 15
1t£J;JJ:I¥J1§1J?X:ftt~ , f\t1F~liJJ,jJ!l±lJ,::rF~"li.~ "
, ~#~1'I
5$?'!~~::t• •~nlGffi%~~~1El~I¥J-~ " 1t<~~#~:tfl¥Jwpf~ , tJ**i!l~
nffiJ§ , ~~{)1~~- ; ~.$J:~ , ~ , fR{)J~t1i1'I*~~~~f&r¥}*,@'*
$fftf*it; ~~1a' *~mJ:~,Ul±ltJl.~ 'fR' ~#, E3.~M1i1in;,~
0
Ii"",
"I IG\ " 16 ~31I~#~1~§J~1%iJ Im~:9}~~:$%1¥J
#*~m~i\'InlG~I¥J~);t
r~§\r~n~lI$J J,)&~~
, ffijU~U7 0lC-O=O!rf. ' ~#JWJfflGffi%fJF~~~~
~1¥Ji±tw~=**~m~%
0
17{~~#1q]~5$IDl'ilEla~atffl~~~%,
M~~~~:fPI¥J~~~~'~~1'I~~*~~."~~'~#~~Ela*
~1¥J1E{ll{)J*m~
0
13 .~ • • ~1IItJ 86 XjO 4 ,FJ 24 El • ,~9 •
14
rU:~~:tEr:f:1:1t+1i*i¥J~15-~'
::icll.il C1!fli:O • 1997 XjO 9 ,FJ 13 B • Ji&AIO·
r r:f:1111tJi¥J1il il1i 'J J 'A~S.' 1998 XjO 7 ,FJ 28 B ' It1ii I •
~Jj!ttJj(::±:'Ii' "Jfla:f:l99t!tJffUI c~tg: 1!I:~~~tfjlt1iiffr±' 1992 XjO) • ffi{ 7: i:t.~D' a:f:IlI::f'
'I' r::f'9c!tJ (~tg: 4-Br:f:1l11tJllilt1iiffr±, 1998XjO) 'ffi{75-77·
~1J*!il;.~:±:'.' ~t!t*c99t!tW~~a (~tJ?,: iV,f:;JIi±JJtmi± '1998XjO) • ffi{22: iiiJlEm~'I" :;1;;11.
lI!ijf~ UCg : r:f:19cIi~tfjlt1iiffr± ' 1998 XjO) • ffi{ 318-319: ~~lm~'I" a:f:Iliiilll~: IiiilI~UI:tl!IP
ii!i (7(1$ : 7(1$A~lliJtmi± • 1998 XjO) 'ffi{ 50-53 '
15 r:f:1.A~:ltfDllltJlIItJ:mIIJMiJTI*l.wi;:-:¥·
16 17 ~ flj
*5:fMJjl,tttuncf:1 ~*1!IJ51-3(~fiU
. m= '
~n:
29
rp~M~::t~~fj!iHt!¥J~rj~H~,ftij
, tt~;fi1tJ:::ffWJ;/j~t!tW!¥JfD
'~~W~~o~::t~§!¥J~~rr~~~~~!¥J,ftijOO'~~rp~~~
f1i.?P
I,
r ~;fi1tt!tW~J~!¥JIDJ7!,G
, :ffflJ~Jf:fJ!::t~*~r~!¥J.tJItZfi~ , fHIJ~1V'5
~-~M*~ • • ~~.R'
~,
ti";fiJi
~::t!¥J
OJ
llt '
~tlf
im&Jll--~~*!¥Jffj~
'
t&h~!¥Jmffi$
OO:ff~~~~~.::t.o~~.-M
, ~llt '
~;fiir{'FE$G*~ir{'F
' flI:fJ!Y--fi!
, ~Jf:fJ!~~*~~ , il&m~f!J(I¥!¥J-M&M~\ll'&~
rp~3Z:f;f~~1t!¥Ji1!fj
0
0
~
J 18
, ~m'{*~.tJ*~Jll~~ft!¥JJI:I~ , :fJ!
1:fJ1lJ1Eft~j{~~;fi1t!¥J~mi ~~~~fuj1t!¥Ja~fl~ , *,J~~~t1:!:WrtJ~;fi
1t!¥J:1JrtJ~mi ' :tJUE~*~5s~~~ftJll~~¥ti~mi ' ~rpft~tJj!¥Jgt1E
m.=. '
~~
[~
rp~Jf~~;fift!¥Jm~
0
-nn~~~~rp~~~t!tW~~~!¥J~irW~o
~
IJ
rp
~f!t
,m~'~*~~~~J7!,G~;fi~!¥J::t~:1J~°ft~rtJ~~~~mi!¥Jt!tW
, rp~::t~~*'1t!¥J • .tJZP:1tJ ' !iI~r:iJt)j~)(~:ff~~*rEl~!¥J• .tJJftt ' aD
::fijga)(~:ff!Ul~*!¥J~H>til&~~IIIE$G~fU~OO~!¥J:fJ!Jf
~
0
OO~*9i-5tJW111
~
, B iii£1JD~!¥JifElII 1tXfi: ' 1:!tJ5~~rs~!¥JifElII1tXfi:fO~~ifilll!¥JifElII 1tX
ff ' f.t~*LrEl~!¥J~~ffj~~~OOg;gffj~ 19
£~~fi!fl?1~ , ~#9i-5t~III~mifD~ftQ~*:S-~!¥Jir1'F~{* ' *m
i1!*iffi§Jt#iI&~ § ~ ~{*~~::f1§~£~*~Lr~ltr*~m tJjJJ!:::fJ§ ::f
~ , ~~:::fJ§~::f~&~~~{J\flJ~ , ~~~!¥Jiti1'Fmr:iJ.L-)'1~¥ti~ftU ' rm
b
0
if
~
0
0
::f~~~.¥ti~~ft::t~rp'»1IJ:!¥Jir{'F~1*
0
Jfrp~OO§'-fi!~OO!¥J~#~~~~m*J:m~Jfrp~!¥J~~~
~°ftrp~!¥J~**'1t-~~J:'fD~~&~@::t~~*OO!¥J~*~~'r:iJ
~J~jj~~~~*Ual'l~pg!¥Jl;lL~.tJ RPf.t~lIY~*!Ul1* ' ~-~
0
1*!¥J*lf;ffu/W~~~*~L r~{*f;f~fi!fjN!¥J .tJltZfiltJ
~mtJt£JJj{:ff!¥J~*~{*
' Jr.tJ !¥J::fJfm~mi
0
!t " ~'I~.M::n:Ir-JAiil
CP~Jf~~~1&t!t~!¥JWf{r!i
' ::f~~~m;fittB~JllE$G~ft;fi!¥JmmtJ~;fi
~!¥J~mi'.JfJ:::tfi!¥JJ7!,Gffiill~'im~~::t~!¥J~~offl~~!¥J~~
18
~
tta~D'
1fl1iI'!'.
r'!'9t~J .]l'{ 79·
19 jiJIEm~~. :kliltiIlfHJf1e . ]l'{ 338·
,
fU
30 iI&1&1'~fqj
, tt~ffHlIii.If!Jff!~~~-·Mrflf!J?p~ (uni-multipolar) 20 fqj
OOo~~~.T'$~?p~~If!J~m'.~ • • • • *~~.*~lf!Jg
~o~$~W~~*~~ftlf!J~#~%$'~BW~'~~~~Br~
am J If!J~mW;g~ ~I!t~~~W$~lf!JlLlb~% ' lE~*S.~$~.W
0
¥5tlLlblf!J!l1.-$o
- ,t
~Jt~lti.~~"J1-f.nM1~
~mMm~~~'-nn~~=A~~~~~~*mfqjOO'~~~~
!l1if.~Jtrp~If!JiI&~ 21
,
~3&~:1J1)f~am~~,EG\:~fElIltz.rs~lf!J~f*
0
ffi
~~~~If!J~~ff!~~~EM'~~~*~'~~iI&1&mh~~~~If!J!l1
*~~o~~$~M~If!J~~~~$~~hlf!J~~'$~~~~~~~m
, k*.g~h:ijf5m '
. 22 ~&\m~~1'.=+
-~*C~~iI&¥€:l~fqjlf!J~.h:l: $~ r~~t1~am~{*~%J If!J~ft .
fu~~~71Z9ff!lf;tf:imh!l1*JlIf!J$. ' tJ~~Mf~~I:f(Wl&~If!J~~ , ffi
~~:1J~~.wAm~r~~~.ll:illB~ , lZ9lf;t~-~*lmf*If!J~J& ' ~ff~
~~~iI&1&If!J~ilhWElf~!wt
0
fBllf;tlf!J~amml*Wg~~)E
0
(-)mpx~~
I
I"~':
,
~ 't
1.
~Il
~~iI&¥€:l~l:*~If!JJI!~ , 1!1!1t~mR*If!J~1b ' .*If!J~~~PJ
fH~1*1&/f'~If!JiI&~
, iE~H~If!J~mtJ~iI¥rJ~Jmlf!J;fD~~)E ~~~~
Jf1n$~~hlf!J~m ' ff!.1*1&{PJf:iIf!JJf~ , fui3lm~r.!~If!J~~ $f0A
0
0
±~mJf$~~1&.~iI&~'~~~~$~~.~.m~'&.~.ffl
, ~71$t\jlUJff~If!JJffi~ , tJ~JI!~$1f!J5m**~~W~iih:l: ' &\OO:m~
~~~2tJHIf!J~A
0
~lf;tJ::\~J{~~~m~fj$TtJB~If!J~tj
0
23
~5}-
20 ,*,~~1lfti?1ff1J't{!,jlitlB':J::l:.5i' i1llliJj(:::l:.iil ' • • r:pfl9t!!:JHlJiil ; ttatzo . r:plll'!'''' r,!,9i;~.J ;
it.JIEm~'i' ' *1II"lI!ilf~ ; :li3~ Jf. Samuel p, Huntington, "The Lonely Superpower." Foreign
Affairs. Vol. 78, No.2 (March/April 1999), pp. 35-49,
21 Jf. Barton Gellman, "Reappraisal Led to New China Policy: Skeptics Abound. but U,S, 'Strategic Part·
nership' Yielding Results," Washington Post. June 22,1998, second of two articles.
22 ~M,*,~~n~~~~~B':J~~Jf.M~~~'i',r:p~.~:~~.~~~(~~:~~A~lli~
~± . 1998 if:) ,
23 1IIl:i~~B':JW:&OJ~~Charles Krauthammer. "Why We Must Contain China: Time, July 31,1995,
p,72; "Partners in the Pacific," The Washington Post, April 26, 1996, p, A25; Gideon Rachman, ·Con­
taining China," The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 19. No, I (Winter 1996), pp. 129-139; Richard Berns­
tein and Ross Monro, "The Coming Conflict with America," Foreign Affairs, VoL76, No, 2 (March/Ap­
ril 1997), pp. 1&-32.
31
*S~m• .:t:~~r:p;!t*~)i.5i:f~JiU
=t
fJ
15
"
~
~
1JitA.ff~J'i1j~2~x'~lt*W$:j:t:jiMl ' PJifE~$:j:t:l¥Ja)::~ ~-1*A±!MH'~
[BJ~$:j:t:~j]~ml:7T ' ~WWE3i~JWfI¥J$Jf ' 1B~fmfr'~'6~/f'fjgP)JMffL
fDEffftil¥J=F~ , lit:@$:j:t:~m*I¥J$Jl ' 1£~~fflij]~"~WlFa' , $:j:t:~
ra&~1;t , JJ!1£rt'i~~ffif~!f. ' 1T~~1&~m1iIWm ' &fffllt:ffffl1~. ' ~
$:j:t:~~.IEI¥Jra&A [tlIl:t.R~1JO~mW$:j:t:5(tE ' ~$:j:t:fMlA~~-=t~1¥J
~~~.*$ , M7$:j:t:W~~j]~§'Ml¥JttEflL ' :tfj~f~$:j:t:~~~~i&Yi:l '
*~~W3(~.*jt:Jff:fI¥J-~ 24 rtff§"Z ' x:tE~!'f!~fijtJ ' II!A:t~~~
§M~#~i&~~I&~-~i&m'.*W$:j:t:~tt'~$:j:t:fMlA5~g*
l¥J~f'F~ffiti ' :f.Wf1Jo$:j:t:ff~I¥J~S}j{t&OJffl~U1'1: ' PJ r ffl~1:Wi-5( J 1¥J~:c\;
~~~~I¥J~~offfl$Jfl:'~~~-=t~~~$:j:t:'~~~~W$:j:t:~tt
I¥JA±,~~~~~m~-=t~~~~*I¥J~.,~~m~~~WI¥J~~o
0
0
0
0
2. tf:I3=t;
$:j:t:J!~m~~~j]Mfi~ , w~*czx:I¥J~~i&ml¥Jm*~w ' $:j:t:§r
;x.IE.,~¥U~OJfjg~~~.~~g*I¥Jj]:I; , $:j:t:~.L-j,~tltW~*I¥J~
~$~*~A=+-tlt*c' NP~~~~tltw~=*~~m, $:j:t:I¥JMfi~E
~~~~.:t:.~~~'fffl~~~~$.o1£~'~~*~~W~I¥J~~~
WJ ' !:f:!;1:t::Yi-~i&~~jJjt' ' £*.l:.fJJ~5't¥U~~m*l¥JffiU¥3 ' NP~1£-fL
/\=:if$:j:t:ml:fj r lmfJLI3
J 9i-5(Z1& '
t!1i(t¥G~~Ojj
0
~O~-=tlal¥Jjj~
W~IaI¥J$.~.IEJl;EJ! ' ~lli$:j:t:W~~W~ *~*~~I11~§.~JL/f'
[BJ7f3:c\;I¥J~f*liilf*,
'
§1¥Jg;t~~~Iil~.=+-~*cl¥J~~i&mmJm 2S ,
:Jt$mm~I¥J-$g;t~W~~1¥J r~~J~~~m*liilf*,J
0
fEl~$:j:t:I¥J*
~9}x:mJm-~oo~~tr~~~lmf.l¥J7(r '~:lr r~~{tJ I¥J~Jm
,­
~OO$:j:t:~PJ r -~ J 1¥J~7tI:fj;EJ! ' ~llt~oomraJ$:j:t:I¥J~I~:tf!?;{lL [tlJlt
$:j:t:!f,f)jU~m~$~~~~1£~§1f~m ' ZP:~W1fifUI¥J£~l:~JmIJJH*, ' J!
:ffl~f'F~Jm1&*~I¥J~~~5l~~:@~W~rJijf*J:J&~~$~$1¥J r
J
0
24
fjf!!lilmfiii¥J.!!l6~~~J! Mortimer B. Zuckerman, "America's China Syndrome," U. S. News & Worid
Report, October 30, 1995, p. 110; Kenneth Liberthal, "A New China Strategy," Foreign AjJairs, Vol. 74,
NO.6 (NovemberlDecember 1995), pp. 35-49; Audrey Kurth Cronin and Patrick M. Cronin, "The
Realistic Engagement of China," The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 19, No. I (Winter 1996), pp. 141-169;
Henry Kissinger, "The Stakes with China," The Washington Post, March 31, 1996; David Shambaugh,
"China's Military: Real or Paper Tiger?" The Washington Quarterly, VoL 19, No.2 (Spring 1996), pp.
19-36; Robert Ross, "Beijing As a Conservative Power," Foreign AjJairs, Vol. 76, No.2 (March I April
1997), pp. 33-44.
25
r *~lUlf*i*~J~~
. ~8ih.IJDl2:!H~ J
•
A~8 •. 1997 ~ 12.Fl 15
B ' !tEi 7·
r
32 ~~
, zp:~f;tf,ft:p~ffJ;\'tftl?m* ' t~JI::t~;fU~m~~ctit8<J~mffJ;fjJE
Itt:9i- ' t:p~-rEJ~~m~m~WH1Cj=§W;\'t~*1J ' ±'~~[Z5Jm~mf;t~8<J
5i::R¥ B?!,{t:p~5$~iJ'.FJ]Jm~JMt:pmpgil& ' :>f~ftl?m-=f7W ' {g~t:p~{JJ
1ff ~ ~mflg1:E iJ'.Fl:mmJ:ffi~f.ff~8<JftfEg , {JEf~ iJ'.JtrEJ Wt:p ~~*U Z
0
Q
~,9t~tE~Ill?Hl~(~~{*8<J9t1r' ~~~~nxJlt~§~
(=)
0
lDliKt/.fi:m
1:Et:p~w~mE1f{1fj3&jJ~9t1r r9t~Jjj:~~~~{*j
ZB'i¥ '
~1j:m
&~~tf:Htt:ti~1*8<J!~/nlpg~ ~mmr9f~52;t:.r9ffiJ~WJ:E!f!mr9f~pt1M~1t
( Susan Shink) j=~lliJ5JT~ilJ r 9t~118<J~~~~~1* j ''J!'~J:~j=~:9i-xil&
Jf'iJ:8<J~PJitf'F ' fffi~~-~J5JT7M!l~~~~~8<J1J.tllM 26 t:p~fiJlJ~,
:E!f!~:9i-~~;\'t~tI2fl}j6ffu~7f;: r ~m:1Joo±'iJ&~~~J!1~~~1* ~{F'
I
0
I
~9t~tt~~~f*' jlf&:8<JWh.it~9t~Jf1~~~~~{*
0
jiMm~ijjf!OO
it~~9t~ji-~~~1*,tI2~~:>f-JE~~1:EB~~~~~~1*'
rEJji@j §~~gjJ ePf~-@jm*W~-@jm*9t1r-:ti9t~11~~~
1* ' :il.ft:>f~~jG3:~ftl?{F~it~~TID3,t[ , jG3:tllM1j,~;;fJ§7 27 J j;JJ:8<J
~~~7f;t:p ~W~m~:1J:tffl~fc.U~~!IZ\~~~fEiltt8<J~1* ' fEl!lfm8<Jit{'FW
~Wh~Um~~-tV8<JWhr.fj , ~~t:p~W~mzFa~ret~itf'F ' tI2~ftll:i 28
1. :1t IE.] ~ JII§ ~tl ~
~m~MEfOJ*ilWl1:Err~~W5F~~~mZ~uj;)J?d~W5t:pm*[l?EZB'if ' 1W*~
0
0
",~I "
I,", ,
"/ ,
0
000~~Wt:p~xtt8<J~~'~*ilWl~~1:E3:~~ZP:'~~W;fjJE,~;t:
ffu'i!Y:3: '
*mt:l~fli1:Lit~~mU
W'&.~I:lJt;fl
'
~1*~r~~JmJ:
'
3:~*~j{W~j{f3 83ft
'
~PJn.~B
' :tffl!l6\~~~t:p~8<Jitf'F ' ::tflg~5&~:E!f! 29
0
\ZSI Ittt:p ~W~m8<J~f~~f*~~~~J!'J!'±'~ ~tljJ 2p.lJWm*;fU~8<J~
.o~~~~:1JE1f{1fj9t1rft:ti~#~~z~'1:EY:3::1JOO8<J~~~~M
26 .itt.' ~~ 864'- II J=I 9 B ' Il& 9 •
27
(if7i) '1997 4'- 10 J=I 31 B ' Il& A4 •
28 ~~~1Jfiiir,mm~~ffPJ$Jt..lW~.tM, a.!fB9ittfi; : 1'j:I~1II~B9m~~mI. (~tJi!: : :>c1t~~
xiii.
t±lll&iii± '1998) 'J!{ 293-299; .fa '
~liIIl;ttlH~r1lUHt~U"A (~tJi!:
: 1:!t?Ho~t±lJl&ifr±. '
1998) 'J!{755-763; .:Ejh~' r~.t:jJ~mH~t:jJ~Wlt:§:*J ,l'j:IlilltiIlliW.i!if~.IiIIIll~Jt
fHlifl&' 1997-1998(~t*: t:jJ~_'i"J]l!liff~' 1998)' J!{ 10-17; m~rl! rtEt:jJ:;It~ r~1lfi
DJ ~: '$}jif~~tJi!:~ rit~tE~III~..1 J 'i!.~~.' ~ 12~' ~ I Wl' J!{ HI ; ~
_ , r t:jJ~-€lf'F~JiHtJli{J • Jl.f\!IiIIIllIII~ , 1998 4'-~ 6 Wl ' J!{ 2-6 '
29 $~.itt., ~~ 864'- JO J=I 26 B ' Il& 10 ; Newsweek, June 29, 1998, p, 18B.
f)J¥~~H~~f~itY~¥:rrtP~~ , ~4fJMiHifi~f¥ll!Ji:)f , Mm~~f)J
M~m~~~5:2£l,,1~~I!lhizD:k~~ , ~mgljn'if)J*Hfij~jigrn}*HfiJf)J.:L
tt1B¥iln!1 j1(rmf)J~~~~f)J~=t::~~~~ · Mm~~S1i+fiff~~~lJ~3I
*HflJ$ . f14fJ1¥:WtP~i'fll*}WtJ~}tP ' YH~~~2fH~qifmJ£l!~m~
0
~} fflJ ;It ~ M-- W- iIa $i ¥f.cP
o
'
-=
~~ff)J I
f8!l
±M~'~±M~J~~~tP4fJ~,~~f)J¥~ll~~m~~~~ifY
, ~§l! , ~@llU:ji~tP · itfq:jJ ifw!~!l[*}WtJ · i1~m''J'4!tf)J4t!l[ll~
bsJ~~tP~W ' *HfiJf)JjfWIi~~§l!£lMtm~} ,
Bmm~~~~!!.!!, ~~f)J
I ~mJ ~~~Ei} , ~n4;f)J I ~~J ~~~fu· '*}WtJ~}~~~:P:I,1}~i{J
f)J[rJ~m~m:rrtP ' ~.q:jJ$ ~!jJf)JWf1m~~~I€!JJYJi~m . bSJ~
jfJ£l!:rrtPf)J~WI1Pq~ · ~rt§l~=t::~E3"I!lH~f:El!iq:jJ~8} .!jJf)J¥if~I?~±
{}}~D~m~~~~f)J:rrtP~YJi~ , m}liJ.f)J=t::E3"mD':Wf)JE3"y~1[g±~i§J
, bS~IWf¥1j¥~tP~I:lJ£edt¥*~1!!l1*¥fuf::j{r§9 ~n4;~~:)f~£fi!n:jJDq · [gJ§im
~m~ij~fi~~J£l!f)J~m~=t::Mm~~.fJf~~ , WElf)JtJ*m-l-.m~M '
f8!lf)J~~~D.~¥tP~.,~~~~~=t::~:rr~ • •8~.~·W~
~~llm~ B¥i;mmD~~9f)J~~:)f~~Ei} , M~~ij±U:ji~:t-bUJf ' [gJ±
~n~mJ£l!m~ ~§9f)J~mm~~f~~~'&EH:f)J~fi~ , ~lrr;:W~ij§!:~*}
' l-.~~D~f)J;b*ll-¥*~m;b~I~} , ~}
0
0
0
0
o
II
0
0
Iftlm~q:jJM
0
[gJ§f±¥~~¥I,flM
~:rrtP~''J'4!tf)J~~f)J~~~-¥*~m~
JJ~.-±
' ~!!w~f)Jm¥ ' itfq:jJ
0
~'~~~H~a~*~=t:: f)J~R?f{i
*}MlW[gJ~~iff1f)JbsJm~D~.~iJJ±~
0
s} • *HHI~4!iq~J:i::F):~m[rJ~~Bmm~
tP '
~=t::m~:i::F):~
I
0
*}WtJ~4f)J~~~slzAIH~:rr
*HHI~m~~:P:J,1}~i{ J f)Jm~m:rr tP
'
~~~
~"ttgj'}1t
·z
~~*-iHf~nM ' ~4*ll~*4'fi~*I¥:W§!:~ , *}WtJ~}~f)J7;Li{
!!.!!~=t::.;,~±mJ£l!~~~~!iq:jJ ~}~~~*f)J~~~~q:jJtm · f1~I¥:WJJm
, f8!l~¥m3Hfft · OOU:1J$ [;3~Wf¥1j¥~tP~i!l}ll Wli
· 8tj;li~~~1If)J~~9J.~!M.~5:2W£ln~
o
0
*:uf)J~~*U:ji8}
fJIFFtll
&J;{fi
~,*fif1
JfJ!~i4
.MN~
Wf!i~
0
Dq!l[JJM~f)JOOU:~llU:ji*f#i
~~~~Y~~'.~~'~~~~~~J~WtJL~~~U:ji'~~JJ~
rt§lllE3"~J1m~*¥fu¥~fi!f
0
~m~~
, M~~[fflOOU:~~~lim~~lIU:~*
.~y~g£ln~~~~*.'N~~~~~=t::IDYllu:.m~'u:~~
m±g~~±~~~~~fiji
, ffrJ4}~*f~?}l±~iHB±~¥}li*8:rrtP '
:¢fi4;~:t
t;J}~tP~
4I;1{fiM@l
o
iilrflot:
34 ~lIo
(-) tf ~ fiPl1~ ft.J ;fJt .Jf. - dJ fiPl1~ if.. f' 11=. jlJ ~ ~ tIh 110 ~ 1f.
-1111 -1f.~ifi*If&~MI'i~J& ' ep ~ijliJ.{fUlwrruJf*1:E~1'ff¥JlE1~Ht¥~
.l.MIt~~ , 30 ~~~j~A1LIDJ~~ , ~1J.¥4:ft.~~71iffii!JIf&~~VfljjfD
- ~JU~~ruJf*f¥JffiUWfDm5E ' :ttruJf*f¥J~~EE-JMtlE 'M ft$ti~ummfF~
f*f¥J~Il
0
-1111-1f.1f.®,~~wr~~LW,ep:ft.~~ifi*~m~~,~~~~
1I1a ' 1'fiE~ep:ft.flJ~f¥J~~ ,
31 ~II:tepfftMIt~umfDM ' ~1J~1L~:tt
fU -1111-1f.+=F.l=+t;B ' ep:ft.W{ft~wr~~ r~~*,C~J ,lEA
~~jt3(mJ1* ' :illL[q]~1:EfDZP::ft.~1iJJ.jlJlIJf¥J¥~.l. ' Wlltf1Uj~~ruJf*
32_M=1f.+=F.l{ftmwr~,*:fE~~§~IDJrJJep~*~, ~1JH7 rep
fft;fl31LruJ1*¥~f¥J~~Vfljj J J;)& 24 JffiIm~ , ~~1J**ruJ1*f{g5E7¥
*1JraJWffiUlU • ~1J;fI31LiiiJi~~H~* ' ~~:lJoff:fpJJtf:tf:t1Jf¥JlI$il3aa
0
0
[q].;~[q]m~~.Mff:W.~~-1J~*~.fD~~~~f¥J.~.m
5E
0
33
~1JruJf*~II:tEElE~1t3lraJl@~~~W1LflJ~f'Ff¥Jfjtt
• --:tL11 -.1f.
~mAA$~~~.l.~~IDJ~ep~*~1'f30~'~1f.ep:ft.m1'f15M~~~
'"
'
,,
I
~[I]IDJrt:1~fftmAA
0
-11:tL~1f.:tLF.lrr~~~~IDJfft'm~ep:ft.~*~~A371f.*m­
~ltIDJ{ftmAA
*&!~1'f~~f¥J
' Wlra~~1J~W-7~-ti7~1'Ff¥J rlf&~~V~JjJ '~7R~1Je
r ¥!~tt~*ruJ1* J ''8~-m!ZP:.' &1'f~ , ttL7tf¥JruJ
' m~trm~~ . ~f.fE~~~~p:;ja~1JfD~JtU~~f¥Jm*
1* ' ret~M.
ff:~ , J;)&:tE2::tttt!liIfD~titW~~M~fDZP:fJlH*1'ffIH~1tj:: 34
-11117\1f.~F.l~li~MttIDJrt:1~~t* ' ~~1JruJ1*71-m~ r ZP:~1L
'1IDraJ=+-tit*cf¥J~ummf'F~1*mJ1*J ':illL~W- 12 JffiI~1'F3t1tj:: • -'
1111t;1f.~F.l ' 1I~~MIDJ{ft~:JtJf ' ~1J~~7 r ruJ~titW~~ft:fD~~
~jlg~~J¥f¥J~~Vf3jj J ,35 ~~7f:t~~f~~f¥J~1* ' ~,gmt!=tW~~ft
0
30 r:f:1mlHl{'W19~~Jt~nlG~' r 1!t*c:i!!~~:7dfJlHI{x;~1t J '1III1tr.Ul9tf!J't (~tJiO '1999 if:~
1 Wl ' 1'a 6 ; MnlG. ' fjjJr:f:1U ' ~re!/fIiWtf!lII!lf9f.Jli:. (~t:!l{ : £§!j;!f~I±lIWM. ' 1998) '1'a
179-180
31 FBIS, DRlSOV, December 17,1991, p. 43. 32 A~Elta' 1991 if: 12 Fl31 B '1W6' 33 r r:f:1newajJ J '.1!l'ta' ~m 81 if: 12 Fl 29 B 'IW 2 • 34 A~Elta(MIW) '1994if:9Fl5B'1W3' 35 l11!l'fi'~!!ll1 86 if: 4 Fl 24 B ' IW 9
0
0
~
*5ft.±'jHIi.!r:p~*~Yi-3(~fflJ
, ;f02jSWit1'f1Jfi:ji-tv!tf~ , ~lf:t&\i&~~:iL0lEit;r!f!
l¥Jm~~~ff o-tLtL!\if.+-f:l
B ' ll~l~~Jf}II1~:ttJTf3fIDJr",~ , ~
jJ~~ r mm~i:!t*Bz:9:rp~mm1*l¥J~itWEJl J ,~ml:B1JD~€g~~Im{*l¥JtL
lJjJJR~U5i- ' illLWJm4-i&~1JD~€gfBllf:t1£m*m~r",~JI!1[Ll¥J1bb~ , f~~jJfj~m
J!I~tE1JD~~~
rJ#
1r(Jf;iE 'lINtll~
~{&l{~fJflEJfjm
t$lj~/IJ1} tihftu
.~i:!tW;f02jS,~jim~it~W~~®~~~no~
(=> lm~a~*1f
.~, ~~~fMJ
~1JfMJli~1t
ielf!-1 'iEIt
Ui~~!RJ~
~? rr:p
~ll{fJE?ll
~JIr~i&tt;
-:h:h::::.If.
flliJrlffj,f& f-e
f:3/{%iJ~
~~1Je
:7}(Jf;!RJ
(Jf;1f.;k:
"5.S[J;li
•
rp~IUH*ttlEm{tji~¥tlti~1bb{1:
l!r '
0
~
!fjjft
&~J[ttlf:trulf*l¥JP3~
l¥J~~fjf~~Ill¥Jjfffr!i
0
~flt~li1Cfhj;
35
' titnm~jfj{ril:fln~~l¥Ji*.fj
, PJ1SU~~WwUfJ~*1JDPJ7t;fJT ' ::rfj~f1;!t~*
0
1.IiH~.~
rp~z~l¥Jti~1bb~~~'~rn~m~jJOO1£-tLtL~~n$~ml:B
l¥J '
rp~&!f-J1*l1>Uiftill¥JfL~l!rillL*f.f[~@]JJ!
' 371l1r~-tLtL/\if.~f:l ~~
~IDJr",~~tjj(a~
, ::r~~~ r ti~1bbf1: J l¥Jffl~i:1J~A$~15W!!Elrp ;!tJJR~~
7 ~jJl¥J~{,fEZ1} , -llirntn~m1£&if..=.f:l E$f8;~rpl¥J r IHI.:t.~ J ~
:t:J! ' ~j,1St~f:l ~mWB*m~lil:iLillL~€gft~B~1mwtl HPtttlDlf:t ' 1£~
itW!!Elrp , ti~ r~~1bb{1: J l¥JP3~ , jfj{~:Ej~fD.~~{1:l¥J~~ , ~J!I
~ft*1t;fOfEI3~ , 1l7f\lf:tflmm{*illfjf1~~~ , tim.=.lt1Stfjf:iLHPl¥Jm1Zfi
-tLtL1:::;if.~f:l rp~r.:b.lf ' ::rti~~1Zii~m*mm1*l¥J*§,;fOjfj{~J3
fI{1:7!!Ellill¥JM~ , PJTg~ti~1bb{1:m*mm{*1QfI5.=.@IJif;Xl¥Jit{1: : m- ,
0
0
0
~A~~~~15~'~~~~l¥J~~~w,~jimm~~~~;fO~~;m
=' 1£Mt~:g.El1£m~.l:JJ!fjfl¥Jjfg{:V:fDlE~:fI:6rtl¥J£~J: ' i&J1;U~jJ1£m
~*~rpl¥J~~W1Zii~;m,=,'~jim~~~l¥J~;fOW~~'m~i:!tW~
~{btl~l¥J~J~fD0lEit;r!f!l¥Jm~~~ffl¥J~:iL
'
~1§~i!H~1JD~€g$~itml¥J{1:ffl
0
®1£.~l¥J~{1:L
mji~~jfj{ml¥J~.:t.{t;fO~~{t
~{,fEji~~rp~*]!!JJi1z;fO~Ajfg1JDA~~*~
0
'
~u
; ;!t;x~u
38 ~:illrJ:9~jlffirpPJPJ~
l:B,rp~ill~~~*1tl¥Jm.=.i:!tw~*m.jJ~,~7ti:!tWl¥J~~mm1*'illL
llffjffl1£$~it~l¥J{~~tth{:v:
'
fflPJm18~~m.:t.~l¥J~~jfj{#1mfflJ
0
'§J
36 .'i:U' ~llIil4 1998 if: 11 Fl 23 8111 '
37 fHMl"~R' r1l!iitp{f(~~ts{'F8f-¥HJ 'rdla~liJf~' m 35 ~m 12 Wl ' !i:\1ifJ 85 if: 12 Fl '
J! 21-23 ; ~~, r (f(RWi'9:?£l'/Iijt~tri'HI:iJi!tp{f('WHG1'F8f-¥Inlf*J '1I1~HF~It,Hjn!ii!f:
1997-1998 UCg: tplifJ~W'lll'~litf~lt, 1998) 'J! 30'
38
_*_'!i:\1ifJ 86 if: 4 Fl 24 8 ' 1:& 9 '
36
2. gJiUI~ ' .:t:~£m-~pgW~[s~'f$:ij[I¥J~mfI1t* 39
gt~pgM~ffffi'§ , ~1J~3&j]m-~pgr~~~l¥Jm~ , g;jllt~~~~I¥Jb[HIm
f* . ~]jU~g;j~Jf.b[H ' iiJt)~fr]1tI1¥J~1VJ*~~E.mm-*~~~~ gtr:p#ffff
· Wf~!itWTI¥J~~1m1*iiJt)~r:p#tBO:g,.~1t . [I=f]~iiJ~I~*~~~JmPfT
~1¥J1igrJjfDBtfALJ 1±fftmWT1JOO ' ~UiiJm"~G.l¥Jf~mWTmI*fD~$
r:pfft~1JrJmfm*YIii~EJit:m:
0
0
0
I*I¥J~~~mm~;[I=f]~~~r:p#iiJ~ffi~~~~$j]I¥J~~~m~Jm
~~o
ffff~~i&ml¥J~JmiJ2f@rrx:7~1Jlmf*l¥Jffi~Wrrx::m:
I¥J~.
0
~-
,
~ckB*.
. iiJj;)1±*WfjgrJ:::lJo5~&]M~tkB*.
r:pw11f~11fI¥J~fft 40
- , ~B~~:lJD~I¥J~W
~r:p#ffffi'§ · ~BIVJ
1$j*Hf~~tl¥JljBlIJ ' 83~:l;:l¥JfJUljlJjililJ.fIll~$Uf4:REfJmHljttf~ , 'fi1fEEIVJ~
'fi"m$t~ffitlAEfJ]:~.1i ' ~r:p#~JitM1±I¥J~~ , r:pf~lmf*I¥J:lJ05~~Ji~
~1'I#[I=f]EfJ_f!J~ , t)ZjS1iT~ , BW~~I¥J~Jm41 ~.:::. j~YElg;j$
r:pfft1±r:p~jiliW;:f4:1'I~J.jltWWTlIJ£*~i!i~tJJJmI¥J£*ffj~ 1&1& ' E§1J
~r:p#l¥Jffitl~tX&T7!Pr:p#pgi&J::I¥Jt:1lf!r~~~ , iJ2f@f~r:p#~7TWfftmWT
EfJlmf* ' fj£ffff1±i&YElJ:::lJD~~§ a ' 1±~$J::~~5 [)1!f~mWTEfJ~~**1C '
0
fftmWT~JmWcp#l¥Jlmf*
0
0
0
'
0
0
*g~E§1J~7T~t:1~~Jtl:pfT5 [~I¥JIW.I¥~j])t(1iT
0
~~,r:pfft~~~~~~illff1±~ffi~I¥J~$·.:t:~*§m-~~i&m
~j]I¥J~~W~1JEfJ~~~llio~-'1±r:p'~'fft=~Imf*I¥J~~r:p·
r:pfftW~~mff1±~~~x~~l¥JrJmf*,@~fft~Wr:p~~~~fftr:p~~
~~VfiiJ 1r
'
~If;tr:pf~IW~1±ITIiI&W;W~~~~~~
, r:pf~IW~I¥J:lr~~~
$U*~W~~~f'l=lmf*l¥JkB*
' fj£fffff~1~r:pffXlW~~If;t5l~l¥JfjJ3t~$U~N
ffiU ;tt~ , r:pffX~~lmf*fIjJmff1±*~jfrJmf*V&1&m-i&mlmf* ' r:p:Sf(:1m1*H
m-~1JrJmf*I¥J~~,tB~ri&m~'~~~J ' rr:p:Sf(:~'~1J~JEfJ~
, 42 ~1J1m1*EfJ£millt)~~m.:t:~~:I: ' g;j1ltImf*~Jm.tJ,IJiYZW~
0
Ao1&~,r:pfft~~1±&~&~'~:lr~~iliJf.I¥J~~J::f4:1'I#~'fS~
ltrJ1Em~~· *lin.uaijf~ : **ttt1'HI~J~ , fa ' B ' IXlIII.:ftl1jl1il (~t* : c:p~~~tI:lli&~±
1998) .]'it 361-362 ; .~'i"
r~c:pf!t~@mf'F"lUJfRiJ .]'it 23-25
40 _ . r~.f!Ulwr~~*IIl5'i-~J •• IXIjl~ijf~ (~t*) '19951f.~D M ,]'it 57-47
39
.
0
0
41
Steven Mufson, "U.S.-Japan Accord Fans China's Fears," Washington Post, April 19, 1996, p. A28; Uli
Schmelzer, "Russia, China find Common foe in U.S., "Chicago Tribune, April 26, 19%, p. 3.
42
MlfiXlil' Wc:pMH ' 1iit\!!ltIUqljllil,mJ$(:Ift '
]'it 182 '
~
~~t$!tm:1WJ3j(
39
rJ1t1WJ~~IJJst$:t[iJ:fJIJ
~!ffiJ1f~~ ifttpffifrj
~QJJ1t1fJf!f!i!tt~~fifi
0
0
UrtJttrm::r:~tfalfI~
~iJt$SJf::tifEliJI~~
o
!!3- , :fUlj~.
15!ti&:!!1:ft¥:J~.
ffifrj'f?J'~BfiJ:J
~ , f'!E'fitEf:JfiJ:J~
~{lf-t$iJ[j5!tif.{fj~
~1f5®~o
oAit1t'iZ§7J
'If!Jf!fiJ{~I.I/(fj
~fft~~;fffe ,
~fE&l~i&1f5
'9~_tp ,
ff~tpiW{gJg
J'li]giJIJ1r:
*6~.:±.Wr:p~*[jJ1f-51:t&NU
37
, ~~tE~~J:@P1'I/f~s<:J5E{:sL fftSWTtEfIX::lL
Zt& · 01~~m~~2s<:J~*1E · ~1JDA1::;*I~~~tr{'Fmj}~s<:J±~
§~ • ffijr:p:;tt;tU~a*~f3~,1Jm~~=1ttws<:J-~ · ~~¥M~~r:p~~s<:J~Bt
tE~D11IT~~*~{'FJtj:Jj[ij
0
1'Im*s<:J~~'¥M~~~M~~r:p~~m±,~m~~~~~~s<:J~~'
ili~m*~~~iM
0
!Mlfwp{t!! · {,lE~r:pfft~:Jjajt~IHl{*s<:Jlz,;J:*/ftr~~~~~1t '
~~~
a~s<:J~.~~~~tEmM~fu/ftrm~·~~r:pfft~alHl~~~.fIX:
* ' {El.~tE~f.1ttWf~J~s<:J~tJJ: ' ~~~Jitf~s<:J~~ifj~
0
ffi'~
;;;4­
RIIB
r:p:;tt- [S]mfftYiJj-t!tWf~~s<:Jmt!! · :MH'F~ifjU5Ej}~~Jfis<:J±~{t(.
~.~M,r:p:;tt~~Mr~M • • J . r1ttW¥$J • r=M1ttWJ.
r fDZP:.~Jm J l1I!.IDfHmfJT~~~~~m · :MzJ!tfj7[S]~~~~ r -a~J J .
r¥$j}~J • &:~ rMt-rt!U~J • rlll:lLf3
J s<:J;f§~j}~~Jfi 43~
.~*f& ' r:p:;tt*~~~.fIX:* ' .$1JD~3m!1~1t ' tE~~J:.~~~:lL~
~7f3;a:s<:J~*1Hl1* ' ~~~m~.~1ttW~J~ , !zslll:[:~~~m~~.r:p:;tt
j}3'C:~Jfiff1P&;t;7]s<:JIHl{* r:p:;ttjf£~:t],.±~fftYim/f~JJ.jU~iJ . ;Htflj~~s<:J
5ERffj~m ' 44 iEl~~m~Jt.±~~l1I!.IDfH ' ¥M~r:p:;tt*~j}~~~s<:J~J~ ,
0
0
0
W#1'I~~~llwp{t!!s<:JfJ~tJ
0
tE~~~~~~:Jj@,r:p:;tt.1ttw*~m~~:lL~~7f3;a:~.~1Hl
~fJIJ£*iJ:
{* ' :MLEL.fftSWT:;ttfPJm~m~.{ts<:J1ttWffij~tJ ' ~,1Jm~.1ts<:J1ttWf~
~1'I1I}j~1ttWs<:JfDZP:.:fI5E Qf~Iltf.l±~±§r~7t'@~ , ~m'8~z¥M
'J
t$ff{j
~~IDfHs<:J~M'M&¥Mr:p:;tt~tJs<:J~§~So~.~*~,r:p:;tt¥M1ttW
~!fiJf!IZ
, {E1~
~~~WPS~§~~~E~rr~'~~~~~*~fIX:s<:J~~~M°{El.~­
ft1r:1IljfJe.
1fliii '
; Vii
0
nn-~~M• •~z~'~~~~s<:J~[ij~~7f3fIX:'-nnn~~~s<:J
f-W~~f8:~
, J!1JD~7 Jl:tf.lm~s<:J~~ -nnn~=J=l fii ' tE~[:*~tF
0t:1*Jl_fIX::lL@rilili 50 ~Z~ , t)~~m§s<:J~[:t:1~lJ ' t) r }JflrEij~±
43 fJ;5!.~ft::t.£i'
0
Wrel:J:lfiilil9B,( UtJi{ ; cp[ffJntt.~~I:fjIl&W± '1988)
44 fJ:Ei&mWll1i:~J5iIDm1fJg§J5[ffJ~lHIf*l!ffifIi' :l'!!:cpj:t[ffJ~lBJf*~~I¥J-l]{Ufm,~ ~D!Wcpj:tcplill
iil±.f-4~II1tIUI!'iHl~:'@:~1ijm: r Jiitim.\'&I¥J[ffJ~lBJf*l!ffiflifJ:Emm "ij'I,lf.:t:..· I:fjfit···fJ:E$~~.
jJiftdti ' ~jJf.?Jjij , liIl~fIJ~~~"'~I¥J*~ , '8Uk:lil~IiIl.:t:..l¥JlM5'i-i$1fil¥JfIJ~IUIjI¥J J
fJ;5!,@:~' r ~ffiflicp!¥J[ffJ~lBJf*JJi!ffiflicp3t~F¥ J ,t!"'"iI UtJi{) '1988 ~ , m 8 Wl ' J'{ 12 •
0
0
0
fIT
38
11 J
' **Jf~i't~f¥t1l ' fjWntFfill7<::~M::tt:~~~~rjte ' !!t~fj~
~f&+1¥I¥J~~il&m~fi'ij~~m*I¥J~.
0
45
~-
,
PJ~~W.~!:JBi't1'F±
~1¥J~~il&~~fi'ij~~M~'~D75n~±~~~~~~*::tt:w.~=~
W~~ , PJ±~~~imlr%I¥Jtk:{J\ ; ~= niiJ$l~~~*f&~~~tmW.#itJ~
'
~W~~~il&m~~I¥J~~'5n~~~~~m~e~~~~~~~~~
~U'ffi~m~~I¥J~~~~~~m~~;
,~i't~~~Mtk:~~~~
1¥JJ;}J1J~~WJfs;t1£&
; ~~W.W!±~tE5$1II¥JjqJM~1*~~~Mtk:~~~~~I¥J±
L.--....... ' *~;fIjFfltE~i't~*l¥JitMll ' ~.~J'iUI¥J1J~JJ ' ~;fElfj±~~1If,
1£imlr%flg.JG1J~JJnDIi ' d6\aJi~~~wp1i5*~*[liI¥J~JJ . :t1J~II]fM
'8~~A:fICl5<:~~fi'ijI¥J1J~JJ " lli~1¥**~*[Ii*~~~~I[~~ , ~i't~JJ
fu,:fI;fElttl¥J±tJS$ , ill@tB~~~I¥J$Jr 1El~;fi~*;tt~~ , ~~m~­
7.ZC ...
0
0
+-~*B~*~I¥J~*B: ~~m11§*~g&~~~, ill@im~z~~
0
[Ii~~~~~~B~:/1~~~W~
7111 ' m~{JJ~1If,~AO~¥U 6,000 f-it1¥J
~ , $. ,
; ;fiPJA;tSj~~~t. ' *~*[lim~~1If, , ~~W~ 81
ill "lIlli~~i't~~~1¥J r A!Ji~~f~l9:J (11(AOZP:;tSj.$' ~5CA.~~W
fj~Ii)1U) *~*[li1£~W 174 ffllj~**:/1F~~ 106Ul" 46 !It:7!- ' *::tt:fu,
~~PJ~~*~*~7T ' $~1J[)A~WW~*Jl.~ , D~*~fjEral¥JK*ir
~JJ{JJ~~~"~~~I¥J~*7Tm'*~*[liB~il&m*~,m~{JJ~$.
11(~~a±fim~~~~~il&ml¥J~~"ttM~~il&m~fi'ij~~~~-JG
T"1¥J[3
';XM' fiUfftttTw.*::tt:§r~I¥JJ'iUDIi ' ;tt*~ , [3 , ~M~ir*#iU
*::tt:W.#;UIWTl¥Jfl~~~~J3D
" *~*~)1}:x:I¥J~~w.tJ~~ , ~d6\a1i1£ll:t
fI~~il&m~~T"~~*~~o
*
*
45 l1I:1il!iia9t-.t~1lJ~~.:E~-Jft' rf'l.~l7i:~.:
m)
'1999 ~I~
, ~~ 9 WI, W 143-152
*
"A~~tn1:.~" a9.~1:.ftJ 'ID!;;tIllJllifi (il}
' .:E)(~I!Ht;ffiTIlfJ~jl3aE;tlJlUa9m~
. l§.~1:.lI!:f:E
m~~m:f:Ef'l.~l7i:.~$a9.~1:.ft,
46 ij I §~f:m· r $mm~WHJ!t~i¥J9j.~t!f~?
J
illlS~ftf!
UtE'O . 19991f:~ I WI ' W66 '
Download